NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)

Most of my top picks this week are underdogs, but here’s a favorite that seems to be undervalued for some reason. The Seahawks are 10.5 point favorites, which might seem like a lot, but it’s not when you consider how much better Seattle is than Miami. The Dolphins won 6 games last season, but finished 2nd worst in rate of moving the chains differential and 5th worst in point differential, so they were even worse than that 6-10 record suggested. They’ll be better coached this season with Adam Gase coming in, but they also lost a trio of talented players in free agency, losing Olivier Vernon, Lamar Miller, and Derrick Shelby. They’re also without talented center Mike Pouncey because of injury.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, won 10 games last year, but were once again a top-3 team in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Returning a pretty similar team to the one that played so well down the stretch last season, the Seahawks figure to be one of the best teams in the league again. It’s weird that they’re being underrated by the oddsmakers, but I think this line would be at least 14 in mid-season, especially considering the Seahawks are 51-27 ATS at home since 2007. This one won’t be close and Seattle is the obvious Survivor Pick this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

Here’s another line I don’t understand. The Steelers are favored by 3 points on the road, which might not seem like a lot, but it means they have to win by more than 3 points to cover, and 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer. It’s also the equivalent of being about 8 or 9 point favorites at home and suggests the Steelers are about 6 points better than the Redskins, which doesn’t make much sense. The Redskins aren’t a great team, but they have a solid squad, while the Steelers are at less than 100% to start the season, missing #2 wide receiver Markus Wheaton, tight end Ladarius Green, and running back Le’Veon Bell.

This line should be much closer to even, so I love getting the full field goal with the Redskins. The Steelers also have never been great at these non-divisional road games against seemingly inferior opponents in the Mike Tomlin era. Tomlin is a great coach overall, but his teams have historically not gotten up for in “trap games” like this against unfamiliar opponents, as the Steelers have gone 8-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007. This might end up being a push because of how common field goal games are, but I like the Redskins chances to keep it at least within a field goal and likely win outright. I think the money line at +135 is also a good value.

Washington Redskins 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

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Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

The 49ers were the worst team in the league last season, finishing dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They managed to win 5 games, but just 1 of those 5 wins came by more than 6 points, while their average margin of defeat was 16.45 points per loss. All those 5 wins really did for them was take them out of position to draft a quarterback early, leaving them to start Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. With 46 million in unused cap space following an off-season in which they had a very tough time convincing anyone to sign with them, this might be the least talented team in the league once again. This time they might not be fortunate enough to win 5 games (or unfortunate enough depending on how you look at it).

However, the Rams might be equally bad. At the very least, they’re close. They won 7 games last season, but they also needed good luck in close games to even go 7-9. Of those 7 wins, 5 came by 8 points or fewer, while only 3 of their 9 losses did, as they finished 30th in rate of moving the chains differential overall. They were better than the 49ers last season, but their off-season was even worse than the San Francisco’s. The 49ers didn’t get any better, but the Rams actually got worse. They lost a pair of talented defensive starters in Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod in free agency and traded away their entire draft to move up to #1 to reach for California quarterback Jared Goff, who won’t even be the starter to begin the season.

Outside of running back and defensive line, the Rams have major problems all over the field, especially in the receiving corps, in the secondary, and on the offensive line. I’m confused why they’re favored here on the road in San Francisco, even by 2.5 points. These two teams are much more even than that suggests and the Rams aren’t good enough to be road favorites against anyone. I wish we were getting a full field goal with the 49ers because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but I like the 49ers to win here at home. That’s probably the only time I’ll say that this season.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Los Angeles Rams 10 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

The Chiefs are favored here by 6.5 points at home over the Chargers. If you took these two teams’ records from last season, that makes sense, as the Chargers won just 4 games and the Chiefs won 11. However, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. While the Chargers only won 4 games, they were competitive in most of their games, only losing by more than 8 points three times, including just 1 loss by more than 8 points on the road. Close losses weren’t the end of their bad luck last season, as they had the 2nd worst special teams performance in the league in terms of DVOA and had a -5 differential in return touchdowns. Both of those things tend to be pretty random and hard to predict on a year-to-year basis and even average performance in both of those metrics helps this team win more close games. They actually outgained opponents on the season by 158 yards and finished 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 5 spots behind the Chiefs.

That’s despite the fact that they had among the most injuries in the league last season, finishing with the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. They were especially banged up down the stretch and still managed to keep it close with the Chiefs week 14, covering as huge road underdogs in a 7 point loss. The Chargers are much healthier this season, with the likes of Keenan Allen, Orlando Franklin, and King Dunlap returning after injury plagued 2015 seasons. They also added Matt Slauson and Casey Hayward, two very underrated signings, this off-season, though they lost long-time safety Eric Weddle and will be without #3 overall pick Joey Bosa in this one, as he works back into shape after a stupid off-season holdout.

Instead, the Chiefs are the ones coming into the season banged up, as Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston, two of their best players, will miss the start of the season with knee injuries. Both were out for last year’s close call with the Chargers week 14, but the Chiefs are also now without top cornerback Sean Smith, who left as a free agent this off-season. This line shouldn’t be any higher than 3 (suggesting these two teams are about even) and the Chargers actually played better on the road last season than at home, where they have very few fans, so I like the Chargers’ chances of taking this one straight up. At the very least, the game should be even closer than the 7 point game played between these two teams in Kansas City week 14 last season and the Chargers’ chances of winning straight up are better than the +230 money line suggests.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +230

Pick against the spread: San Diego +6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

The 2016 NFL season starts exactly the same way the 2015 NFL season ended, with the Panthers facing the Broncos. Unlike last year, this is not the Super Bowl, but this game still could have major playoff implications and it’s an early litmus test for both of these teams to see how good they actually are, or are not. In last year’s neutral site Super Bowl, I chose the Panthers as 4.5 point favorites. Even though they lost, they actually moved the ball better than the Broncos did in that game. The Broncos obviously had the splash plays that won the game, but they had more 3rd down failures (13) than first downs (11), moving the chains at a 48.00% rate, as opposed to 62.48% for the Panthers. The Broncos won the league’s ultimate prize, but if that game were played 100 times the Panthers likely would have won more often than the Broncos.

That theory will be put to the test a little bit more this week, with the Panthers now visiting the Broncos. Of course, these are not the same teams as last season. The Panthers lost #1 cornerback Josh Norman in free agency and need Cam Newton to continue playing at the level he played at last season, even though last season was easily the best of his career. He’ll have top receiver Kelvin Benjamin back, but the Panthers are unlikely to be as good as they were last season.

The same is very much true of the Broncos, who lost talented defensive starters Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan on defense and Evan Mathis on offense and did little to replace any of them. They’ll also be starting a 2015 7th round pick who has never thrown a pass in his career at quarterback in Trevor Siemian. Neither of their quarterbacks played well last season, but Siemian is as unqualified as week 1 starters come and could be even worse than both Osweiler and Manning. Both teams lost talent this off-season, but the Broncos had the worse off-season.

On top of that, the Panthers, despite how the season ended, played a lot better than the Broncos did overall last season. They won 10 games (including the post-season) by more than a touchdown last season, while the Broncos won just 4. In fact, the Broncos went 11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including a 3-0 record in overtime. If a few things had gone differently, they might not have even made the playoffs, let alone won the Super Bowl. In order to finish 12-4 again, the Broncos are likely going to have to be significantly better this season, which doesn’t seem likely considering all they did was lose talent this off-season.

The Panthers are unlikely to win 15 games again, but who does? They still figure to be one of the best teams in the league, while Denver could easily struggle to make the playoffs. The Panthers finished last season 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Broncos finished 11th. That gap could easily be even wider this season. I don’t mind laying the field goal with the Panthers here on the road. There’s not quite enough for me to put money on this, especially since the Panthers are a heavily public backed road favorite in a nationally televised game against an opponent who is getting their Super Bowl rings, but the Panthers are the pick here.

Carolina Panthers 20 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers: Super Bowl 50 Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Panthers, Super Bowl 50 Pick, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (14-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (17-1) at San Francisco

Both of these teams finished with the #1 seed in their respective conference and won two home playoff games to get here. However, they’ve still had drastically different seasons and one team has been significantly more impressive this year. While Denver finished the year 12-4 with just 3 wins by more than a touchdown in the regular season and post-season combined, Carolina finished 15-1 with 10 wins by more than a touchdown between the regular season and post-season.

Denver might have the best defense in the NFL, finishing the regular season 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, despite outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware, safety TJ Ward, and safety Darian Stewart all missing at least some time with injury. All three will play in this one on a Denver team that is remarkably healthy, only missing one week 1 starter (left tackle Ty Sambrailo). However, the Panthers also have a great defense (4th in rate of moving the chains allowed) and are pretty healthy too, just missing cornerback Charles Tillman, cornerback Bene Benwikere, and left guard Amini Silatolu from week 1, none of whom were key parts of the team. Outside linebacker Thomas Davis is a key part of their team and he did break his arm two weeks ago in the NFC Championship, but he’s going to play anyway.

Davis’ effectiveness is of concern, but not enough that the Panthers aren’t the significantly more talented of these two teams. In addition to a great defense, the Panthers also have a great offense, led by likely NFL MVP quarterback Cam Newton. They finished 4th in rate of moving the chains on the season, allowing them to finish the regular season 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Broncos, meanwhile, finished 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to an offense that ranked 30th in rate of moving the chains. Led by soon-to-be-40-year-old Peyton Manning, their offense is the biggest reason why they have had so many more near losses than the Panthers and it should be the biggest reason they lose this game by at least a touchdown. I don’t see them scoring more than one touchdown. I jumped on the line at 4.5 right after the championship game 2 weeks ago and I would still bet money at 5.5 or 6.

Carolina Panthers 21 Denver Broncos 10

Pick against the spread: Carolina -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2015 NFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (13-3) at Carolina Panthers (15-1)

I’ve been saying for pretty much all season that Arizona is better than Carolina, despite Carolina’s better record and their status as the #1 seed in the NFC really from start to finish (they’ve been tied for the best record in the NFC or had the best record in the NFC all season). Arizona obviously has lost more games than the Panthers, 3 to 1, but their margin of victory is much higher, winning their 13 games by an average of 16.92 points per game, while the Panthers’ 15 wins have come by an average of 13.27 points per game.

Arizona also finished the season #1 in rate of moving the chains differential, a statistic in which they led almost all season (Carolina finished 2nd). In two of their three losses they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team.

Carolina finished the season with a better point differential, +192 vs. +176, but they were more reliant on winning the turnover margin, finishing the season at +20, while Arizona finished at +9. Besides, Arizona’s point differential is better if you take out their 3rd loss, a 30 point home loss to the Seattle Seahawks week 17, a game in which the Cardinals didn’t even play their starters in the second half because the Panthers were simultaneously up big over Tampa Bay and on their way to locking up the #1 seed, making Arizona’s game meaningless. On top of that, the Cardinals played a much tougher schedule, as they had the 16th hardest strength of schedule record wise, while the Panthers had the nd easiest.

All of this being said, I’m not that confident in the Cardinals as 3 point road underdogs here for one reason: Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu was playing at a borderline Defensive Player of the Year level before a week 15 torn ACL ended his season prematurely. Without him, it’s hard to argue that the Cardinals are a significantly better team, which they’d have to be for me to have any real confidence in them as mere field goal underdogs on the road. If this line does move to 3.5 before gametime, I may reconsider, as about 1 in 6 games as decided by exactly a field goal, but this is a low confidence pick for now. If you feel the need to put money on something this weekend, I’d recommend Arizona +145 on the money line.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Carolina Panthers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2015 AFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4)

The Patriots lost in Denver earlier this year, but the Patriots were without leading wide receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and also lost top receiving threat Rob Gronkowski and talented linebacker Dont’a Hightower with injuries in that game. Even still, the Patriots were leading 21-7 in the 4th quarter and likely would have won if not for a phantom holding call around the goal line and a muffed punt by Chris Harper, who was only returning punts because both Edelman and Amendola were out.

Despite very nearly winning, the Patriots did not move the ball well in that game, as they moved the chains at a 59.38% rate (as opposed to 69.23% for the Broncos). Two of New England’s touchdowns came on drives where they started with great field position, while the other one came on a long touchdown reception by backup running Brandon Bolden out of the backfield. That’s despite the fact that the Broncos were down DeMarcus Ware and then lost safety TJ Ward to injury in that game. Ware and Ward are keys on a Denver defense that finished the season 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed and both will play in this one, though talented cornerback Chris Harris could be limited with a serious shoulder injury.

However, as talented as Denver is defensively, the Patriots should have more offensive success in this one with key players returning from injury. In the 9 regular season games Julian Edelman played, the Patriots moved the chains at a 79.81% rate, as opposed to 65.42% in their other 7 regular season games. Last week, with Edelman healthy for the first time in 2 months, they moved the chains at an 82.76% rate against a solid Kansas City defense. That’s not all Edelman, as the Patriots have also gotten other players back from injury that missed time during that 7 game stretch (Gronkowski, Amendola, Sebastian Vollmer, Josh Kline, etc), but there’s no denying that he’s such a huge part of their offense and they’re a different team when he’s out there, one that’s much better than Denver.

The Broncos finished the regular season 11th in rate of moving the chains differential and then had an underwhelming home victory against the very banged up Pittsburgh Steelers in their first playoff game last week. Just 3 of Denver’s wins this season have come by more than a touchdown so their record is kind of a farce. Their defense is incredible, but they have major problems offensively, finishing the regular season 30th in rate of moving the chains. Peyton Manning, by most measures, was the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots were one of the best teams in the NFL before injuries struck and are now relatively. They’re far more well-rounded than the Broncos. We know about their offense when everyone is healthy, but their defense is strong too, arguably stronger than any Patriots defense since 2007, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

Teams tend to cover in the playoffs in a same season, same site, non-divisional rematch against a team that beat them previously anyway, going 31-15 ATS since 2001. On top of that, the Patriots themselves tend to cover in same season revenge games in the Bill Belichick era (since 2000), going 14-5 ATS in those type of games over that time period. All this being said, I can’t put money on New England as 3.5 point road favorites, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. For that reason, this is only a low confidence pick, though if the line drops before gametime, I’ll definitely reconsider.

New England Patriots 24 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against spread: New England -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2015 NFC Divisional Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (11-6) at Carolina Panthers (15-1)

This is a matchup of two absolute powerhouses, as Carolina and Seattle rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in rate of moving the chains differential. Seattle gets running back Marshawn Lynch back from a 7 game absence, while Carolina gets running back Jonathan Stewart back from a 3 game absence, safety Kurt Coleman back from a 1 game absence, and wide receiver Ted Ginn back from a 1 game absence, though cornerback Charles Tillman is out for the season. I think Carolina is the better team, so I like being able to take them as mere 2.5 point favorites at home, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, but I’d need to be getting points to bet any money against Seattle, especially since home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round.

Carolina Panthers 16 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: 2015 AFC Divisional Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)

This one’s tough. The Patriots should be able to cover this 5 point spread at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have famously won 11 straight games since a 1-5 start, but who did they beat over that time period? Buffalo? Denver when Manning had a bad foot? Houston? Meanwhile, during their 1-5 start, they lost to the likes of Denver (with a healthier Manning), Green Bay, Cincinnati, Minnesota, all playoff teams. They’re a solid team and rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but I don’t really like their chances of winning a road playoff game against a tough team and making a deep run, especially since teams are 11-21 ATS in the playoffs on a winning streak of 7 or more, since 2001.

Their toughest game strength of schedule wise that they won might have been last week in Houston. The final score was 30-0, but that’s a little misleading, as the Chiefs didn’t have an offensive touchdown until JJ Watt got hurt in the 3rd quarter. That win was propelled by a kickoff return touchdown and a +4 turnover margin, two things they won’t be able to count on this week, against an opponent that ended up being pretty weak without the superstar Watt. Kansas City’s offense really seemed to miss talented rookie center Mitch Morse, who will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion this week. Possibly joining him on the sideline this week are top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who hurt his ankle last week, and outside linebacker Justin Houston, a defensive standout who tweaked a knee injury last week that caused him to miss the previous 5 games.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are getting way healthier this week. They’ve played pretty badly in recent weeks, especially struggling on the offensive side of the ball, moving the chains at a 65.42% rate in the past 7 games, as opposed to 79.81% in the first 9 games of the season. That timeline coincides with when top wide receiver Julian Edelman went down with a broken foot, but he makes his return this week after more than 2 months.

It wasn’t just Julian Edelman getting hurt, as Edelman, running back Dion Lewis, running back LeGarrette Blount, wide receiver Danny Amendola, tight end Rob Gronkowski, tight end Scott Chandler, guard Josh Kline, offensive tackle Nate Solder, offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer, defensive tackle Dominique Easley, defensive end Chandler Jones, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, linebacker Jamie Collins, safety Devin McCourty, and safety Patrick Chung all combined to miss 45 full games over that 7 game stretch (33 offensive, 12 defensive). Amendola, Chandler, Kline, Gronkowski, Collins, McCourty, and Chung all played week 17, while Vollmer, Jones, and Hightower all return this week, along with Edelman. Blount, Lewis, Solder, and Easley are all out for the season, but every team has some amount of injuries right now. They’re in pretty good shape.

However, it’s tough to be too confident in them because we just haven’t seen it from them in a while. It’s a projection that they’re going to be a lot better this week, a good one, but it’s tough to know that everything is just going to go back to the way it was a couple months ago. I also don’t like the feel around this one, with Chandler Jones possibly facing an internal punishment for an off-the-field issue and Rob Gronkowski apparently being more questionable than normal questionable and reportedly getting a pain injection on Thursday in the right knee he injured earlier this season. Add in the fact that home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round and that close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, and it becomes very tough to be too confident in New England covering as 5 point favorites, though they are my pick.

New England Patriots 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: New England -5

Confidence: Low

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