It’s important to have a list of sleepers going into a draft. Once you’ve filled out your starting lineup, you want to fill the rest of your team with high upside guys rather than safe guys. Safe guys are boring and can’t morph into starting caliber players. High risk/high reward guys are better because, typically, you either get a starting caliber player (like guys I recommended last year, Mike Williams SEA, Mike Williams TB, Peyton Hillis, Rob Gronkowski, Mike Thomas, Josh Freeman, Johnny Knox) or a complete bust (like guys I recommended last year, Fred Taylor, Brandon Tate, Matt Moore, Chad Henne, Bernard Scott) who you can just toss in favor of one of the many midseason breakout players on the waiver wire. This is a list of those guys, in my opinion. I’ve listed them in the order I feel they should be drafted, though I include their average draft position so you can get a feel of when you have to draft them by typically.
ADP is according to ESPN.
QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)
Bradford had a great rookie year, but wasn’t a great fantasy player. However, there are three reasons why the latter will change this year. One, he’s no longer a rookie. Rookie quarterbacks always struggle, but Bradford didn’t. Two, his receiving corps will be better after they spent 2nd-4thround picks on receivers.
Three, he has a new offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. McDaniels turned Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton into 3600+ yard and 21+ touchdown passers. Bradford could easily throw for 4000 yards in this scheme.
Projection: 4050 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (241 pts standard, 291 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
ADP: 91st
RB Mike Tolbert (San Diego)
Ryan Mathews is still going to be the lead back in San Diego, but Tolbert should be able to get enough carries, with San Diego playing from behind less and Darren Sproles gone. He’s also going to be the pass catching back and the goal line back which gives him value in San Diego’s explosive offense. Mathews isn’t the most durable back and he has durability problems in camp so Tolbert might end up leading the team in carries again.
Projection: 160 carries, 660 rushing yards, 30 catches, 250 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns, 5 fumbles (141 pts, 171 PPR)
ADP: 93rd
WR Mike Sims Walker (St. Louis)
Mike Sims Walker had 43 catches for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, but 63 catches for 869 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2009. He moves from Jacksonville to St. Louis, a more pass heavy team with a better quarterback. We saw what Josh McDaniels did with Brandon Lloyd in Denver with an inferior quarterback in Kyle Orton. I’m not saying MSW quite has that upside, but he could certainly go over a thousand yards and I don’t think his downside is all that low. I mean if Josh McDaniels can get 65 catches for 875 yards out of Kyle Orton to Jabar Gaffney last year, unless MSW gets hurt, he still has fantasy value as the #2 receiver in St. Louis’ offense.
Projection: 65 catches, 920 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (134 pts, 199 PPR)
ADP: 134th
TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)
In the 2nd half last year, Graham had 26 catches for 307 yards and 5 touchdowns in 8 games. Over 16, that’s 52 catches for 604 yards and 10 touchdowns. Now he’s actually the starter with Jeremy Shockey gone. His upside is off the charts.
Projection: 60 catches, 700 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (118 pts, 178 PPR)
ADP: 104th
TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)
Aaron Hernandez was the tight end to own in New England to start the year, but Gronkowski changed that. In the 2nd half, he had 28 catches for 398 yards and 7 touchdowns, good for 56 catches for 796 yards and 14 touchdowns over 16 games. However, he does worry me. The Patriots have so many options, including Aaron Hernandez at Gronkowski’s own position. Plus, his touchdown to reception rate was really high. That could fall, especially with Chad Ochocinco coming in.
Projection: 50 catches, 680 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (116 pts, 166 PPR)
ADP: 123rd
WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)
All 3 of New Orleans’ top receivers have injury problems. Colston’s knee is still not 100%. Robert Meachem battled leg injuries all last season and recently hurt his back in a preseason game. Moore missed most of 2009 with injuries, but is as close to 100% as you can be right now. In 2008, when healthy, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, when he also was healthy, he caught 66 passes for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns. Expect production similar to those numbers this year, especially with injury questions surrounding Colston and Meachem.
Projection: 70 catches, 800 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (128 pts, 198 PPR)
ADP: 107th
WR Nate Burleson (Detroit)
Matt Stafford is going to be going deep a lot more than Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did last season. Burleson caught 12 catches for 179 yards and 1 touchdown in 3 games with Stafford last season, good for 64 catches for 955 yards and 5 touchdowns. Burleson has looked good this preseason with and without Johnson in the lineup. With the way Stafford is playing, there’s fantasy value with both Burleson and Johnson.
Projection: 65 catches, 850 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (127 pts, 192 PPR)
ADP: 154th
WR Braylon Edwards (San Francisco)
The 49ers signing of Braylon Edwards was genius. Edwards will be as motivated as ever because the deal has financial incentives of 2.5 million dollars for making the Pro-Bowl, because it’s a one year deal which means he’s still in a contract year, and because he didn’t get the deal he wanted, which motivates him to prove doubters wrong. The upside with him is what he did in 2007, 80 catches for 1289 yards and 6 touchdowns plus turning Derek Anderson into a Pro-Bowler (which, for the record, I believe deserves at least 50, if not 100 fantasy points).
He’s the #1 guy in San Francisco. Michael Crabtree is missing his 3rd straight preseason with an injury and didn’t work out with the team during the offseason. However, I don’t know Edwards does what he did in 2007. He hasn’t shown anything like that since so I think the most we can expect from him in fantasy are WR3 numbers much like last year (53 catches for 904 yards and 7 touchdowns) with a lot of upside that he probably won’t reach.
Projection: 60 catches, 900 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (126 pts, 186 PPR)
ADP: 118th
WR Jacoby Ford (Oakland)
9/3/11: Ford came back from an injury for the Raiders’ 4th preseason game, but only got 1 target. With players like Darrius Heyward Bey and Denarius Moore in the mix, he could see inconsistent targets.
Ford is not a well known name, but in 8 2nd half games last year, he had 21 catches for 433 yards and 2 touchdowns, as well as 107 rushing yards and another 2 touchdowns. Stretching that alone over 16 weeks gives you 42 catches for 866 yards, 214 rushing yards and 8 total touchdowns, and as such a young player, he’s got upside beyond that.
Projection: 40 catches, 760 receiving yards, 120 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns (124 pts, 164 PPR)
ADP: 136th
RB Michael Bush (Oakland)
Darren McFadden is always an injury risk and the Raiders run a lot so there should be a lot of carries for Michael Bush. He had 158 carries last season and should have more this season. He can also pass catch and might be their best goal line threat.
Projection: 170 carries, 770 rushing yards, 20 catches, 160 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns, 1 fumble (127 pts, 147 PPR)
ADP: 108th
WR Greg Little (Cleveland)
Someone has to lead the Browns in receiving right? Why not Little, a talented 2nd round rookie who played in a West Coast offense at North Carolina, meaning the transition to the NFL won’t be as great for him as other receivers.
Projection: 55 catches, 800 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (122 pts, 177 PPR)
ADP: 200th
RB Jason Snelling (Atlanta)
The last time Michael Turner led the league in carries, he got hurt the next year. Going into this year, he’s led the league in 2 of the last 3 years, and is 29 years old. If he gets hurt or struggles, Snelling would be in line for more carries since Jacquizz Rodgers is a rookie who isn’t capable of carrying the load.
Projection: 120 carries, 540 rushing yards, 35 catches, 280 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns (118 pts, 143 PPR)
ADP: Undrafted
RB Willis McGahee (Denver)
John Fox runs a very run heavy offense which means there should be enough carries for Knowshon Moreno and McGahee to post stats and McGahee should be the goal line back. Moreno is often injured and not exactly the best runner so there’s a chance McGahee could get into the 200 carry range.
Projection: 150 carries, 570 rushing yards, 20 catches, 130 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (113 pts, 133 PPR)
ADP: 115th
TE Benjamin Watson (Cleveland)
8/21/11: Any stock up for McCoy is a stock is up for Watson, who was his favorite target last season. Little and Watson seem to be his best two targets by far so both have fantasy value.
Watson caught 30 balls for 385 yards and a score in Colt McCoy’s 8 starts last year. Over 16 games, that’s 60 catches for 770 yards and 2 touchdowns. McCoy will be better in his 2nd year so Watson have some fantasy value, but he doesn’t get into the end zone very often.
Projection: 67 catches, 770 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns (101 pts, 168 PPR)
ADP: Undrafted
WR Danny Amendola (St. Louis)
8/21/11: St. Louis’ wide receiver situation is probably the most confusing in the league. Whichever two start should be valuable fantasy players with Sam Bradford at quarterback and Josh McDaniels at offensive coordinator. Brandon Gibson, Mike Sims Walker, Danario Alexander, Donnie Avery, and Danny Amendola are all battling for those spots. Only one thing seems to be for sure, Amendola is going to have a big part in the offense. He’s reportedly “head and shoulders” above all wide receivers out there and will probably line up in the slot, the same place he lined up in last year when he caught 85 passes for 689 yards and 3 touchdowns. McDaniels uses a lot of 3 wide sets so Amendola will see plenty of the field and could even be a starter. He is extremely valuable in PPR.
Projection: 90 catches, 800 yards, 4 touchdowns (104 pts, 194 PPR)
ADP: 147th
TE Lance Kendricks (St. Louis)
8/25/11: On one hand, Lance Kendricks looks like one of if not the favorite target of Sam Bradford this preseason. On the other hand, Josh McDaniels hates tight ends. Tony Scheffler caught 40 passes for 645 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2008, but saw those numbers fall to 31 catches for 416 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2009 under McDaniels. On the other hand, Josh McDaniels is not head coach and the team wouldn’t have drafted him if they didn’t plan on using him. On the other hand, he’s a rookie coming out of a lockout and rookie tight ends tend to struggle. I wouldn’t recommend drafting him as a starter but he’s too risky and unproven and I don’t like the idea of drafting a TE2, but if you’re in a deep league and have a bench spot for a high upside guy, Kendricks could be your guy.
Projection: 49 catches, 580 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (88 pts, 137 PPR)
ADP: 162nd
WR Earl Bennett (Chicago)
8/28/11: Roy Williams is out of shape. Devin Hester is inconsistent. Johnny Knox has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. Meanwhile, Bennett led all of Cutler’s receivers in targets in their 3rdpreseason game. Mike Martz has said that Bennett, who had 46 catches for 541 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, will have a bigger role this season and Cutler is obviously comfortable throwing to him. He’s targeting him more than anyone and they were teammates at Vanderbilt. At worst, Bennett is the slot guy. At best, he’d the be #2, but the Bears spread so much that it might not matter. He’ll be on the field plenty and could lead the team in catches and yards.
8/23/11: If you’re in a deeper league and looking for value with one of the 4 Chicago receivers, Bennett could be your guy. He caught 46 passes for 561 yards and 3 touchdowns last year and should see a little bit more than that this year.
Projection: 55 catches, 720 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns (96 pts, 151 PPR)
ADP: Undrafted
WR Andre Roberts (Arizona)
Anquan Boldin is gone. Steve Breaston is gone. That means 2010 3rd round pick Andre Roberts will be the #2 receiver opposite Larry Fitzgerald. He probably won’t see a single double team all year opposite Fitz and with Kolb throwing to him, he does have some upside. He had 5 catches for 110 yards and a score against Dallas last year.
Projection: 45 catches, 660 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (96 pts, 141 PPR)
ADP: Undrafted
WR Brandon Gibson (St. Louis)
8/21/11: For what it’s worth, Gibson has started the last two games for the Rams. Of course, Sims Walker missed one of those with an injury and many in the know expect Danario Alexander and/or Donnie Avery to overtake Gibson before the season, but he’s a nice name to keep in the back of your head late or in deep leagues.
Projection: 55 catches, 700 yards, 4 touchdowns (94 pts, 149 PPR)
ADP: Undrafted
RB Montario Hardesty (Cleveland)
Hardesty appears healthy and should see his fair share of carries on 1st and 2nd downs in Cleveland. He doesn’t catch a lot of passes and won’t stay in on 3rd down and he won’t get the goal line carries, but he should get a significant enough amount of yards to be worth a spot on your fantasy team, especially since he’s a Peyton Hillis injury away from being the lead back.
Projection: 130 carries, 540 rushing yards, 20 catches, 150 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (93 pts, 113 PPR)
ADP: 174th
RB Kendall Hunter (San Francisco)
Frank Gore almost never makes it through a full season. Kendall Hunter would be the guy in line to get the bulk of the carries if and when Gore goes down this season.
Projection: 90 carries, 400 rushing yards, 25 catches, 200 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns (90 pts, 115 PPR)
ADP: Undrafted
WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)
After catching 4 passes for 137 balls and 2 touchdowns in the Steelers 3rd preseason game, Brown looks like he’s going to win the slot job for the Steelers. In previous years, Nate Washington and Mike Wallace have put up nice stats out of the slot in Pittsburgh and that was with two productive starters, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. Mike Wallace is now a proven starter, but Ward is regressing in his advanced age and he’s coming off offseason surgery. Brown is a speedy 2nd year player who could end up in the starting lineup by the end of the season if Ward continues to decline.
Projection: 45 catches, 700 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns (88 pts, 133 PPR)
ADP: 142nd
Football Fan Spot 