Giants

New York Giants sign CB Walter Thurmond

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Walter Thurmond had has a significant history of injuries, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked cornerback last season on just 480 snaps. He dominated on the slot, ranking 7th in the NFL among eligible cornerbacks, allowing 0.85 yards per coverage snap on the slot on 229 snaps. For that reason, I was worried someone would overpay him as an above average starting outside cornerback. He’s still an injury risk. There was still no guarantee that he could be as dominant outside. And there’s still no guarantee that he’d be the same play outside of Seattle’s system, without Seattle’s pass rush in front of him, and without the rest of Seattle’s secondary around him.

That being said, the Giants were really wise to give him just a one-year deal, worth just 3.5 million. Worst case scenario, they’re not out of a lot of money. Best case scenario, the Giants have a great value on a high level cornerback for a year. He’ll man the slot in between Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara. The Giants now have a very solid secondary all of a sudden. They’re playing free agency very well, waiting for the off-season to come to them (with the exception of overvaluing Jon Beason).

Grade: A

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New York Giants sign CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has a very interesting history. A 2008 1st round pick, DRC made the Pro-Bowl in 2009 and looked on his way towards cementing his place as one of the league’s best cornerbacks, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback that year. However, 2010 was the exact opposite for him, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ dead last ranked cornerback, which turned him into a throw-in to Philadelphia in the Kevin Kolb trade.

His tenure in Philadelphia wasn’t good, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 86th ranked cornerback out of 109 eligible in 2011 and 98th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible in 2012 as part of a massively disappointing Philadelphia secondary. That earned him a one-year prove it deal in Denver, worth about 4 million dollars, but he did prove it, grading out 5th among cornerbacks. However, he made some questionable comments before the Super Bowl about potentially retiring which, combined with his history of inconsistency and lethargy, raised some eyebrows.

The Broncos offered him a 6-year, 54 million dollar deal, which he turned down. That ended up not being wise as the Broncos gave similar money to Aqib Talib, while DRC was left as the odd man out on a dried up buyer’s market at cornerback. He was left “settling” for a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal with the Giants, with about 14 million guaranteed. He could still coast now that he’s gotten paid, but it’s a lot less money than he could have gotten with the Broncos, so it’s not nearly as bad of a deal as it could have been.

Credit the Giants for once again letting the off-season come to them and getting DRC at a “discounted” rate. Jerry Reese does this kind of thing almost every off-season and he’s been one of the most successful GMs in the NFL in his tenure. They had a need for a shutdown shadow cornerback and DRC could very well become that if he continues playing well. This deal could still backfire, but it could have been a much worse deal if they had signed him to it earlier in the off-season and it’s hardly the worst deal given to a cornerback this off-season. Sam Shields (4 years, 39 million), Vontae Davis (4 years, 39 million), and Aqib Talib (6 years, 57 million) were overpaid by much greater sums.

Grade: B-

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New York Giants re-sign MLB Jon Beason

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Jon Beason was a decent linebacker, drafted in the 1st round in 2007, but he was massively overpaid going into the contract year of his rookie year on a 5-year, 50 million dollar deal. Making things even worse, he missed 27 of 32 games from 2011-2012 with a variety of injuries. Upon his return in 2013, he had his contract slashed to a one-year deal at the veteran’s minimum, was moved to outside linebacker, and forced into two-down work as a pure base player. He was then benched and sent to the Giants for a late round pick.

The popular narrative is that he rehabbed his value in 12 games with the Giants, back at his natural position at middle linebacker, but that’s not exactly the case. His tackle numbers look good, with 93 tackles in 12 games with the Giants, but people get too caught up in that. He was torched in coverage, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked middle linebacker in terms of coverage grade, and 6th worst ranked middle linebacker overall. He’s simply not the same player he was before the injury and he never graded out higher than 26th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus even before the injury. The Giants got hosed in those contract negotiations, paying him 16.8 million over 3 years, which is embarrassing because Beason was his own agent.

Grade: D

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New York Giants 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Giants, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

It’s hard to believe that the Giants finished 7-9, considering their 0-6 start, but they were surprisingly good down the stretch, winning 7 of their last 10 games. What was the difference? Well, after a -16 turnover margin in their first 6 games, they had a turnover margin of +1 in their final 10 games. That shouldn’t be surprising considering turnover margin tends to be an inconsistent thing. Also helpful was that the Giants got strong play from some unlikely sources on defense, including cornerback Trumaine McBride and once declining defensive end Justin Tuck.

Eli Manning still finished the season with very poor stats, completing 57.5% of his passes for an average of 6.93 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions, but he should be better in 2014. Another player who should be better in 2014 is Jason Pierre-Paul, who was a shell of himself in limited action this season thanks to injuries. Given that, the Giants have a good chance to be a playoff contender again in 2014, but there are some issues.

One is that they have a lot of key free agents and very little cap space with which to bring them back. They can create more cap space fairly easily, but they’re still going to have a tough back bringing all of their guys back. On top of that, there’s concern about Eli Manning’s age as he goes into his age 33 season. Sure, he could improve over a career worst season, but there’s a chance, at his age, that his best days are behind him.

On top of that, the Giants’ 7-9 record from 2013 is a little misleading. They finished the season 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, at -4.85%, and their point differential was -89. They played 8 games against eventual playoff teams and the only two they won were against Matt Barkley and the Eagles and Scott Tolzien and the Packers, two 3rd string quarterbacks. Their other 6 games were losses and by a combined score of 206-65. Depending on what the makeup of this team ends up being, they could compete in 2014, but they have work to do.

Positional Needs

Guard

The Giants obviously have offensive line problems. Tackle isn’t that big of an issue because William Beatty is a talented, well paid left tackle when healthy and because Justin Pugh really came on as a 1st round rookie at right tackle late last season. Guard, however, is a big issue. Kevin Boothe struggled at left guard and the journeyman will be a free agent heading into his age 31 season this off-season. Chris Snee, meanwhile, hasn’t been the same over the past few years thanks to injury and will probably be a cap casualty. His cap number will be 11.3 million for next season and the Giants can save 6.8 million on the cap by cutting him, going into his age 32 season. He could also retire. Either way, they could easily need two new starters at guard this off-season. One option is moving Justin Pugh to guard, but I think he’s more valuable at right tackle and one of the only real good thing they had on this line last season, so moving him doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

Cornerback

Three of the Giants’ top four cornerbacks will be free agents this off-season and all 3 have some issues. Corey Webster is coming off a significant injury in 2013 and a terrible season in 2012 and he’s going into his age 32 season. Terrell Thomas was alright on 588 snaps last season, but he didn’t play at all in 2011 and 2012 because he tore his ACL twice. Trumaine McBride, meanwhile, played well last season on 621 snaps, but he also didn’t play at all from 2011-2012. The journeyman can’t be trusted. Chances are, the Giants will need a new starter opposite Prince Amukamara this off-season.

Defensive End

Jason Pierre-Paul played only 583 snaps in 2013 and struggled by his own standards this season. That being said, he’ll probably be healthy again for 2014 and back to his normal high level of play, but they need help opposite him. They drafted Damontre Moore in the 3rd round in 2013, but they love having depth at the position and Justin Tuck is a free agent going into his age 31 season, while Mathias Kiwanuka will probably be a cap casualty, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 4-3 defensive end this season.

Tight End

The Giants’ top two tight ends are both free agents this off-season, Brandon Myers, a pass catching tight end who disappointed catching 47 passes for 522 yards and a 4 touchdowns, and Bear Pascoe, a blocking type. They’ll probably need to replenish the position.

Middle Linebacker

The Giants were so desperate for linebacker help that they traded for Jon Beason mid-season. That didn’t really pan out, as he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 47th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. That was to be expected, considering he missed 28 of 32 games from 2011-2012 with injury and was demoted upon his return to Carolina earlier this season. He’s a free agent so they should take this opportunity to upgrade the position.

Defensive Tackle

Mike Patterson and Linval Joseph are both free agents this off-season, while Cullen Jenkins could be a cap casualty or moved to defensive end. That would only leave them with inexperienced 2nd round pick Johnathan Hankins at the position. They could definitely need some depth at the position depending on who returns and who they decide to keep.

Running Back

David Wilson has carried the ball 115 times in 2 seasons since being drafted in the 1st round in 2012. He was a backup in 2012, carrying it 71 times and then he carried it only 44 times in what should have been a breakout year in 2013. He was plagued by fumble problems when on the field, losing 3 fumbles on those 115 careers, and suffered a potentially career threatening neck injury that has his future in doubt. Andre Brown took over as the lead back upon his return from his own injuries and stabilized the position, doing a good job picking up the yards that were blocked. However, he has no explosiveness, with a season high run of 23 yards over 139 carries and he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on the season. He also has an injury history and is a free agent this off-season. He’ll probably be brought back, but the Giants would be wise to bring in another running back through the draft.

Kicker

In his first career as the Giants’ kicker, Josh Brown made 23 of 26 field goals. He’s also a career 81.9% kicker. That being said, he’s a free agent this off-season so the Giants will need to replace him if they can’t retain him.

Key Free Agents

DT Linval Joseph

A 2010 2nd round pick out of East Carolina, Linval Joseph has developed into a very solid defensive tackle, grading out 21st among defensive tackles in both 2012 and 2013. He’s a better run player than pass rusher, but he’s a decent pass rusher and he’d be an asset for any defensive line. I don’t think he’s quite at franchise tag level, so the Giants will probably let him test the market unless he agrees to a team friendly deal. He’ll be one of the most sought after defensive linemen on the market.

WR Hakeem Nicks

Hakeem Nicks’ tenure in New York had some ups and downs. He had a strong rookie year, after being taken in the first round in 2009, catching 47 passes for 790 yards and 6 touchdowns and then developing into a 1000+ yard receiver in 2010 and 2011, when he caught a combined 155 passes for 2244 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also was an integral part of the Giants’ Super Bowl team in 2011. However, in 2012 and 2013, he struggled with injuries and didn’t break the 1000 yard mark in either season. He caught a combined 109 passes for 1588 yards and 3 touchdowns, often appeared not to be on the same page with Eli Manning, and caught a low percent of his targets (56.2%). Also, Eli Manning had a 3 to 10 touchdown to interception ratio when thrown to him over the past two seasons. After paying Victor Cruz last off-season and with Rueben Randle waiting in the wings, the Giants and Nicks are probably parting ways this off-season. Still, he had 311 catches for 4622 yards and 27 touchdowns in 5 seasons. Nicks could be a nice buy low option on the open market.

S Stevie Brown

After bouncing around the league to start his career, Brown, a former 7th round pick, finally broke out in 2012 with the Giants, picking off 8 passes and ranking 26th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. However, he tore his ACL before the 2013 season and didn’t play a snap. Now heading into free agency, he could be a nice buy low signing for a team and will probably re-sign with the Giants on a prove it deal, which he could turn into a big multi-year deal next off-season.

DE Justin Tuck

Justin Tuck was great from 2008-2010 and had a fantastic playoff run in 2011, but he really was not the same player in either the 2011 or 2012 regular season. He graded out 3rd, 6th, and 9th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in 2008, 2009, and 2010 respectively, but in 2011 and 2012, he was around average in both seasons. He had a strong contract year in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 4-3 defensive end, but he’s someone you should be wary about giving a big contract as he goes into his age 31 season.

RB Andre Brown

Andre Brown was a 4th round pick of the Giants in 2009, but battled injury problems and bounced all around the league. He eventually caught on as the #2 back in New York in 2012 behind Ahmad Bradshaw, rushing for 385 yards and 8 touchdowns on 73 carries, a 5.3 yard per carry average. With Bradshaw gone in 2013, Brown had a chance to be the lead back with David Wilson, but broke his ankle in the pre-season. Fortunately for him, Wilson suffered a serious injury, allowing Brown to be the starter upon his own return from injury and he really stabilized the position, picking up yardage that was blocked. Unfortunately, that’s about all he did as the plodder averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and had a long of 23 yards. He’s a valuable running back, but I don’t think he’s a starting type. He’ll probably be back with the Giants on a short-term deal as they seek insurance for Wilson.

TE Brandon Myers

Purely a possession receiver who isn’t a strong blocker or explosive after the catch, Myers actually had a strong season in 2012 with the Raiders, catching 79 of his 101 targets, though for only 806 yards with a long of 29. Still, his 2013 was a disappointment by those standards, as he never really fit into the Giants’ system, catching just 47 passes for 522 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’ll probably be looking at one year deals again this off-season and won’t be guaranteed a starting job.

CB Trumaine McBride

Trumaine McBride didn’t play a snap in 2011 or 2012 and didn’t play at all this season until week 4, but he was a starter by week 5 and really helped stabilize the Giants’ secondary. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked cornerback and 13th in coverage grade, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 43.8% of his passes in the direction of his coverage. It’ll be important not to buy high with McBride, but he’s definitely worth bringing back on a short-term deal.

S Ryan Mundy

A career reserve, Ryan Mundy played a career high 667 snaps for the Giants this season and wasn’t bad. The 2008 6th round pick is already going into his age 29 season, but has shown that he’s deserving of a chance at a starting job. At the very least, he’s a solid 3rd safety who could provide adequate depth when injuries strike.

G Kevin Boothe

Kevin Boothe has been a starter for the past 3 years for the Giants. In spite of strong play in 2012, he struggled mightily in both 2011 and 2013 and should be upgraded this off-season, as he heads into his age 31 season. Boothe will probably be looking at one year deals with teams looking at him as interior offensive line depth. He has experience in both guard and center and was primarily a reserve up until 2011.

CB Terrell Thomas

Terrell Thomas didn’t play a snap in 2011 or 2012 thanks to back-to-back torn ACLs and some thought his career was over. He defied the odds this season, playing pretty well on 588 snaps. Only going into his age 29 season, the 2008 2nd round pick still has some football left in him, provided he can stay healthy. He’s obviously an injury risk, but he’ll get attention on the open market.

MLB Jon Beason

The Giants were so desperate for linebacker help that they traded for Jon Beason mid-season. That didn’t really pan out, as he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 47th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. That was to be expected, considering he missed 28 of 32 games from 2011-2012 with injury and was demoted upon his return to Carolina earlier this season. He’ll be looking at one year deals going forward most likely.

DT Mike Patterson

A talented starting defensive tackle in Philadelphia, Patterson was limited to 5 games and 136 snaps in 2012 after brain surgery. He defied the odds and made a comeback in 2013, playing all 16 games and playing pretty well on 413 snaps. He’s going into his age 31 season, but he could still draw interest as a rotational defensive end this off-season.

CB Corey Webster

A solid starter for a while in New York, Webster was torched with regularity in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked cornerback. After restructuring his contract, Webster barely played in 2013, playing 170 snaps, thanks to a serious injury he sustained early in the season. Now going into his age 32 season, he’s going to have a hard time finding work this off-season.

G David Diehl

Going into his age 34 season, David Diehl has announced his retirement and it’s coming at a good time. There was a time where he was a good offensive lineman and he has more than 25 starts experience at every offensive line position except center. However, the aging Diehl has struggled mightily over the past few seasons, especially as he’s been playing through some injuries. Diehl made 11 starts at guard this season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th worst guard. In 2012, he struggled on 487 snaps at right tackle after losing his starting job. In 2011, he played left tackle and left guard and struggled at both spots. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked guard on 10 starts and 8th worst offensive tackle on 6 starts. His composite grade was the worst of any offensive lineman. In 2010, he was the 10th worst ranked tackle in 10 starts and also struggled in 2 starts at left guard. He hasn’t played well since 2009 and probably didn’t have any football left in him.

K Josh Brown

In his first career as the Giants’ kicker, Josh Brown made 23 of 26 field goals. He’s also a career 81.9% kicker. He’ll be kicking somewhere next season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

G Chris Snee

Chris Snee hasn’t been the same over the past few years thanks to injury and will probably be a cap casualty. His cap number will be 11.3 million for next season and the Giants can save 6.8 million on the cap by cutting him, going into his age 32 season. He also might just retire.

DE Mathias Kiwanuka

Mathias Kiwanuka struggled mightily this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 4-3 defensive end, and he’s going into his age 31 season. The Giants can save 9.15 million in cash over the next 2 seasons by cutting him and would save 1.8 million on next year’s cap.

S Antrel Rolle

Antrel Rolle graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked safety this season, but he could still be cut, a move that would save 7.25 million on the cap. He’s struggled in the past, grading out negative from 2009-2012, including 2nd worst in 2011 and 10th worst in 2010. He’s also going into his age 32 season and the Giants have two good in house safeties in Will Hill and Stevie Brown, provided the latter is re-signed as a free agent.

C David Baas

David Baas is a mediocre center at this stage of his career and he’s going into his age 32 season, after missing 13 games last season. Cutting him would save 1.775 million on the cap and 4.75 million in pure cash for the Giants next season.

DT Cullen Jenkins

Cullen Jenkins played solid football last season, but he’s going into his age 33 season in 2014 and the Giants can save 1.933 million on next year’s cap by cutting him. His 2.6 million dollar salary for 2014 doesn’t seem unreasonable, but non-elite players over the age of 32, 33 always need to be prepared to be cut if they are on multi-year deals.

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Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (6-9)

The Giants went into Detroit and beat the Lions last week, while the Redskins lost at home to the Cowboys. Surely the Giants will win at home here against the Redskins and cover this small spread right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Giants as mere 4 point favorites. However, this is the NFL. Things can change from a week to week basis very quickly and the odds makers always win in the long run.

The Giants are in a bad spot coming off such an emotional overtime win over the Lions last week. Teams are 24-41 ATS since 2002 as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as road underdogs of 3 or more, which makes sense, as teams can be overconfident and overvalued in those situations and suffer a hangover effect. We have seen this line shift from 3 to 4 in the past week, which is something.

As for the Redskins, they’re actually in a good spot after last week’s loss. Teams on a losing streak of 6 or more are 42-24 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by a touchdown or less. Teams on long losing streaks tend to be undervalued because no one wants to bet on them, but some teams on long losing streaks are teams that quit. This isolates out those teams because, if they recently played a close game, they’re probably still fighting. The Redskins covered in this spot last week, losing by a mere point as 3 point home underdogs. They’re still fighting hard, in spite of this lost season, because the players are trying to impress any future coaching staff they may have, or any future team that might have interest in them in free agency.

Besides, while the Giants won last week as road underdogs, a situation they historically do well in since 2004, when Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin first came to town, now they are home favorites, a situation they have not done well in since 2004, especially late in the season. While they are 35-20 ATS as road underdogs since 2004, they are 8-16 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later over that time period. Last week, they had no pressure and were able to take advantage of a choking Detroit team, but now the pressure and the expectations are back on the Giants as significant home favorites. They usually are the ones who choke in that situation.

Home struggles aren’t exclusive just to the Giants. The NFC East in general seems to struggle at home and play well on the road, at least in recent years. They are 79-113 ATS at home since 2008, as opposed to 107-89 ATS on the road. As you can expect, in divisional games, the road team generally has the advantage in the NFC East and that’s true, as the home team is 45-27 ATS in NFC East games since 2008, including 17-32 ATS as home favorites. Given that, the fact that the Redskins almost pulled off the home win last week is actually pretty impressive and I give them a good chance to pull off the road upset here this week. This trend worked against the Redskins the last time these two teams met in week 13, when the Redskins lost a tough one as 1 point home favorites.

Going off of that game, another trend favors the Redskins. Teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Redskins have room to play with here because they are 4 point underdogs so they can cover even if they don’t win.

It might not seem like it, but in spite of their respective records (Giants are 6-9 and the Redskins are 3-10) and what happened last week, these teams are actually very comparable and even. In fact, in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Redskins actually rank higher. They move the chains at a 71.34% rate, as opposed to 75.88% for their opponents, a differential of -4.54%, which ranks 26th in the NFL. 26th isn’t anything to write home about, but it’s still better than the Giants, who come in 28th. They move the chains at a 65.70% rate, as opposed to 71.46% for their opponents, a differential of -5.76%.

Now, I don’t think the Redskins are better than the Giants as that suggests. Rate of moving the chains differential doesn’t take into account special teams, intentionally as people tend to put too much value into something that is such a small percentage of the plays in a game and so tough to be sustainable good at. However, the Redskins have proven this season that they are sustainable bad at special teams, which is why New York is probably better, but it’s not by a lot. At the very least, this line, which suggests the Giants are a point better than Washington, is accurate and, of course, that’s before we get into the Giants home struggles, the home struggles of the NFC East as a whole, and the individual situations these two teams are in.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on Washington is because neither of these two teams has anything to play for in terms of playoffs. Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. However, there’s still enough here for me to be somewhat confident in the Redskins, especially since the Redskins don’t have their own first round pick and don’t have anything to “tank” for. They should be the right side.

Washington Redskins 24 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Washington +4

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Giants, Lions, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-9) at Detroit Lions (7-7)

In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past week, the Lions have a turnover problem. Despite their 7-7 record, the Lions have a turnover margin of -13, which is 4th worst in the NFL and their 31 turnovers are the 2nd most in the NFL. The narrative around this has ranged from everything from fire Jim Schwartz (because, apparently, that’s his fault), to bench Matt Stafford for Shaun Hill (because, apparently, a 3.0% interception rate is bad), to the Lions don’t value the ball (whatever that means).

I look at this a different way. I look at them as a team that could be very dominant if they could ever have even just a neutral turnover margin. Even in last week’s debacle of a loss to the Ravens, they were a missed 61-yard field goal away from winning despite a -2 turnover margin (the 3rd turnover never would have been committed if Tucker’s field goal was a yard shorter). Teams that lose the turnover margin by 2 win just about 17.7% of the time. That would have been an accomplishment.

Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent and very easy to correct on both a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Even these Lions were +1 in turnovers through 9 games (6-3), before having a -14 turnover margin in the past 5 games (1-4). It’s the same team. Did they suddenly forget about the value of the ball? Teams that have a turnover margin of +4 and teams that have a turnover margin of -4 have an average turnover margin of about +0.0 the following week. The same thing is essentially the same for teams with -5 and +5 turnover margins, -3 and +3 turnover margins, etc. Past turnover margins don’t seem to be a good predictor of future turnover margins. On top of that, part of the Lions’ poor turnover margin has to do with their mere 40.48% rate of recovering fumbles. That type of thing doesn’t continue. Covering fumbles isn’t a skill.

If none of these numbers convince you that we should assume net-zero turnovers for the Lions this week, how about this: the Lions are playing the Giants this week. The Giants. The Giants make the Lions look like a careful football team, turning the ball over 39 times on the season, most in the NFL, giving them a -17 turnover margin that is the 2nd worst in the NFL. The same thing applies for the Giants: we should assume net-zero turnovers for them going forward because of how inconsistent turnovers are, but if we’re assuming net-zero turnovers, the Lions have the clear advantage this week.

The Lions are moving the chains at a 74.52% rate, as opposed to 68.82% for their opponents, a differential of 5.70% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, are 28th, moving the chains at a 66.11% rate, as opposed to 71.40% for their opponents, a differential of -5.29%. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions, as the line should be around 13.5, instead of 9.5, where it is right now.

The Lions are also in a good spot, with no real distractions on the horizon, as they go to Minnesota next week. Teams are 51-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. On top of that, teams are 62-40 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, as the Lions currently are expected to be next week. They have nothing keeping them from dominating an inferior opponent.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Giants are in a few good spots. They too have no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against the Redskins up next. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. The Giants historically also do very well as road underdogs, at least in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, dating back to 2004. They are 34-20 ATS as road underdogs since then.

On top of that, they’re in a good spot coming off of a home shutout and back-to-back blowout losses. Teams are 38-21 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more points and 39-25 ATS off of a home game in which they didn’t score. It might seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in those situations.

I don’t think they’re undervalued here because we’re still getting line value with the Lions, but if the Giants were playing anyone else this week or if the Lions had won last week, we would have significant line movement against the Giants after last week. Even still, this line has shifted from 7.5 to 9 in the past week. That doesn’t cross any key numbers, but it’s still worth noting. As for overlooked and embarrassed, those are self-explanatory. Those could both easily be true this week. Even still, I do like the Lions this week.

Detroit Lions 27 New York Giants 10

Pick against spread: Detroit -9

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Giants, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8)

At first glance, this line is exactly where it should be. The Seahawks move the chains at a 74.30% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, move the chains at a 67.26% rate, as opposed to 71.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.44% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be around 7, which is exactly where it is.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Seahawks aren’t quite the same team away from home. They aren’t a bad team away from home, but their 5th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential takes into account games in which they have an amazing home field advantage, which they don’t here.  They’ve had some impressive games on the road. They’ve won in Carolina, blew out the Falcons, and came away with an impressive double digit victory from Arizona. However, they’ve also played close games with Houston, St. Louis, and lost in Indianapolis and San Francisco.

They have just two wins on the road by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover this spread. Dating back to last season, they have just three road wins by more than a touchdown in 15 tries. The Seahawks are in a good spot though with no distractions with a home game against Arizona up next. Since 1989, teams are 84-54 ATS as road favorites of 5 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which is why I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)

The Chargers are in an incredibly tough situation this week because they have to face the Broncos a few days after this one in Denver on Thursday Night Football. That is undoubtedly the biggest game of their season. They’ll obviously not want to overlook the Giants here as they are in the midst of a playoff race, but it might be unavoidable. It’s going to be very, very hard for them to get up for a non-conference opponent they see every 4 years with that game up next.

The Chargers will almost definitely be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. The early line has them has 11 point underdogs and a few weeks ago they were underdogs of a touchdown at home against the Broncos (and failed to cover). Teams generally really struggle before being double digit underdogs because they get caught looking forward to such a big game. Teams are 34-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010.

The fact that this game is on Thursday Night Football doesn’t help matters. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. This is a near impossible situation for the Chargers to succeed in. I personally believe the Chargers are a better team than the Giants. The Chargers rank 12th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 27th, moving them at a 69% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents.

However, it’s not always about that. We’re getting more than a field goal here, which makes me more willing to take the Giants in spite of my personal opinions about these two teams. The Giants have been playing better football of late as their turnover problem has predictably corrected itself. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 and came close to beating Dallas. Granted none of those teams were very good, but it’s hard to argue the Chargers are significantly better. The Giants are also a dominant road team and have been since the beginning of the Tom Coughlin era in 2004. They are 34-19 ATS as road dogs in that time period. This is my Pick of the Week.

New York Giants 27 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Giants: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (-1)

Record: 4-7

Over the Giants’ 4 game winning streak, they beat 4 quarterbacks who currently no longer have starting jobs (Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Terrelle Pryor, Scott Tolzien). Once they dealt with a real quarterback in Tony Romo, they had a bit of a tougher challenge. Now at 4-7, 2.5 games back of Dallas, who holds the tiebreaker, the Giants are effectively dead, even in the easiest division in football. They have a lot of building around Eli Manning to do this off-season.

Week 12 Studs

C Kevin Boothe

CB Terrell Thomas

Week 12 Duds

RE Mathias Kiwanuka

MLB Jon Beason

CB Prince Amukamara

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-7) at Washington Redskins (3-8)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line seems pretty off at first glance. The Giants aren’t significantly better than the Redskins, which is what this line would suggest, as the Giants are favored in Washington. The Redskins were favored by 1.5 points last week in the early line, so the line has essentially shifted 3 points in a week as a result of the Redskins’ very public blowout loss to the 49ers at home. The Redskins didn’t look good, but they still might be a better team than the Giants.

They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 22nd in the NFL. The Giants, on the other hand, are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponent, which ranks 28th. This suggests the Redskins should be favored by 4.5 points. Even if the Giants are a better team than the Redskins, it’s hard to make the argument that they’re 4.5 points better, which is what them being favored by 1.5 points on the road suggests. Football Outsiders backs this up as the Giants are just 26th in DVOA, while the Redskins are 29th. That’s pretty even.

The Redskins didn’t play well against the 49ers last week, but the 49ers are a very good team, especially off of a loss. They’ve been blowing out sub-.500 teams all season, beating them by about an average of 20.3 points per game, which is about what the Redskins lost by. There’s not a ton of shame in that. That loss also puts them in a good spot as home underdogs are 65-45 ATS since 2002 off of a loss as home underdogs. The Giants are also in a bad spot going on the road off of 3 straight home games as favorites. Teams are 26-41 ATS in that spot since 1989, including 18-31 ATS as road favorites. The Giants aren’t used to being away from home.

On the other hand, the Redskins seem to be self-destructing a little bit. On the season, they might be the better team than the Giants, but maybe not right now. They seem to be getting worse by the week, while the Giants have solved a lot of their turnover issues and are getting key players healthy. The Giants might not be 4.5 points better than the Redskins either way, but consider that NFC East teams usually are much better on the road than at home.

The NFC East is 43-75 ATS at home, as opposed to 67-54 ATS on the road. As a result, the home team in divisional matchups is just 17-27 ATS over that time frame and 26-44 ATS if you expand the sample size back to 2008. The Giants in particular are 52-32 ATS on the road since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004. Winning on the road, especially against still a small line, might not be that big of a deal.

While the Redskins are in a good spot as home underdogs off a loss as home underdogs, they’re also in a bad spot as home underdogs before being home underdogs as the Chiefs come to town next week. Teams are 67-91 ATS in that spot since 2002. Since 1989, teams are 8-16 ATS as home underdogs before being home underdogs after a loss as home underdogs, so that trend would seem to nullify the previous trend and then some.

There is also a trend that benefits the Giants as teams are 47-31 ATS as road favorites off of a loss by 1-3 points as home favorites. The Giants lost by 3 to the Cowboys last week, in another example of NFC East road supremacy. The Giants might just continue that this week, against a small line. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Redskins and fading the heavy public lean on the Giants, but I’m not confident at all.

Washington Redskins 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Washington +1.5

Confidence: None

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