Last week: 26 (+2)
Record: 4-6
Week 11 Studs
RE Jason Pierre-Paul
Week 11 Duds
RG David Diehl
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Giants
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6)
You could argue we’re getting line value with the Giants here. The Giants are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. They rank 27th and 26th respectively and are pretty equal, which is what this 2.5 point line suggests. However, the Cowboys are very banged up defensively, losing Sean Lee in the middle of their blowout loss in New Orleans. He won’t be back for this one, joining Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, who have essentially missed the season. They could really continue to struggle defensively.
The Giants, meanwhile, have won 4 straight. They haven’t faced a tough schedule over the past 4 games, but their turnover problems seem to be gone, as could be expected. That type of thing is very inconsistent and, after a -16 turnover margin in their first 6 games, they are +5 in turnover margin over the past 4 games. The Cowboys have a strong turnover margin at +11. It’s one of the things they do well. However, that’s not sustainable going forward. Their 66.7% fumble recovery rate isn’t either. If we assume net zero turnovers in this game, which is always smart to do, that could easily favor the Giants.
However, the Giants are in an awful spot here as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs in Washington next week. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002. That’s impossible to ignore and essentially an auto-fade. On top of that, the Cowboys are divisional road dogs before being non-divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 43-29 ATS in since 2008. Combining that, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites, including 13-30 ATS in divisional games.
Also, the NFC East is 43-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 17-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 26-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. I’m worried about the Cowboys’ defense, which is why this isn’t a bigger play, but this is pretty much an auto-bet situation and the Giants’ defense isn’t great either. Of the last 4 quarterbacks they’ve faced, 3 of them are not currently starters (Michael Vick, Terrelle Pryor, Josh Freeman), and the other is Scott Tolzien. The Cowboys could easily win a shootout here. It’s a strong play.
Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +120
Pick against spread: Dallas +2.5
Confidence: Medium
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New York Giants: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#26)
Last week: 26 (+0)
Record: 3-6
Sure, the Giants have won 3 straight, but they were against the Raiders, Vikings, and Eagles, who haven’t won at home in 10 straight games. They weren’t particularly convincing in any of them. That being said, they are in the worst division in football by far and only a game and a half back. If they were to make the playoffs, they would be one of the worst teams to ever make the post-season, as they are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, 30th in the NFL. I guess you can’t count them out though.
Week 10 Studs
RB Andre Brown
FB John Conner
DT Cullen Jenkins
CB Tramaine McBride
Week 10 Duds
RG David Diehl
C Jim Cordle
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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)
One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.
The Giants, however, sit at 3-6 and would need to go 4-3 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend. Sure, they’ve won 3 straight, but over Oakland, Minnesota, and a Philadelphia team that has lost 10 straight at home. They haven’t looked good in any of them. The turnover margin has been a big problem, as they are -13 in turnovers, and that’s inconsistent, but that’s not their only issue. They have just 164 first downs to 50 punts (3.28 to 1), as opposed to 187 first downs to 45 punts for their opponents (4.16 to 1). When you take turnovers and failed 4th downs into account, they are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that is 30th in the NFL.
They don’t deserve to be favored by 6 or more over anyone. They didn’t deserve it last week, when they failed to cover in this exact same situation at home for the Raiders. And they certainly don’t deserve to be favored by 6 or more against a Green Bay team that is better than people think. Yes, they’ve seemed lost without Aaron Rodgers, but remember, this is probably going to be the first time (barring another injury) in 3 weeks that they have the quarterback who prepared all week for this game make it into the 2nd quarter and beyond.
Seneca Wallace struggled mightily in relief of an injured Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, which makes sense considering he was unprepared. He started out better against Philadelphia, but then got hurt, which led to an even more unprepared Scott Tolzien coming into the game, 6 days removed from the practice squad. He completed 24 of 39 for 280 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Tolzien is now the starter going forward, until Rodgers comes back, with Wallace going on IR. He’ll have all week to prepare for this game.
Tolzien doesn’t have a good arm, but remember, this is the same coaching staff that made Matt Flynn look not just passable, but deserving of a starting job elsewhere at one point. They have a solid group of veteran’s around him. Clay Matthews’ 2nd game back helps the defense and they still have talent at the skill positions at offense, with guys like Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson. This line suggests the Packers are one of the worst teams in the NFL and comparable to the Oakland Raiders. That’s not true at all.
Even with an unprepared Scott Tolzien under center, the Packers only lost 28-13 at home to the Eagles. The Raiders lost 49-20 the week before. If they can cover in New York as 6 point underdogs, so can the Packers. On top of that, the Giants usually don’t do well as big home favorites and don’t usually do well in the 2nd half of seasons. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 7-15 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later, including a non-cover last week. If I didn’t already love Washington +3.5 in Philadelphia this week, this would be my Pick of the Week.
Green Bay Packers 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +200
Pick against spread: Green Bay +6
Confidence: High
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New York Giants: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#26)
Last week: 27 (+1)
Record: 2-6
On bye.
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Oakland Raiders at New York Giants: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (3-5) at New York Giants (2-6)
One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.
The Giants, however, sit at 2-6 and would need to go 5-3 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend. The Giants have been playing better football of late, winning their last 2, as a result of a predictably improved turnover margin. However, turnovers aren’t their only problem. They have 145 first downs to 46 punts (3.15 to 1), while their opponents have 175 first downs to 40 punts (4.375). Besides, beating the Vikings and Eagles isn’t exactly impressive. I’m not sold they’re back.
In terms of rate of moving the chains, which factors in turnovers and fourth down failures in addition to first downs and punts, the Giants are moving the chains at a 66% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. That’s a differential that ranks 30th. The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests that the Giants should only be favored by a point instead of 7.5. I don’t know if that’s 100% accurate, but we’re definitely getting line value with the Raiders, before we even take into account the six and six trend.
The Raiders, meanwhile, are in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs. Teams are 89-66 ATS since 2002 in that spot and the Raiders go to Houston next week. This line has shifted from -5.5 to -7.5 in the past week after the Raiders big loss last week, shifting over the key numbers of 6 and 7. That’s significant and I think an overreaction. The Giants, meanwhile, usually don’t do well as big home favorites and don’t usually do well in the 2nd half of seasons. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 7-15 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later. There’s no guarantee that will continue with the Giants off to their worst 8 game start of that time period, but it’s worth noting.
There are two reasons why this isn’t my Pick of the Week. One is that the Raiders are a West Coast team on the East Coast at 1 PM. The second is just the possibility that the Giants are about to rip off a long winning streak, as they are one to do, and prove they are not the same team they were earlier this season. However, I don’t think they will. For various reasons, including injury, they just don’t have a lot of talent. Injuries have thinned their secondary, running game, and offensive line. Their defensive line is still fine, but injuries have limited Jason Pierre-Paul to the point where he is no longer the impact player they need him to be. They are way too reliant on Eli Manning and the passing game, which is hurt by the lack of supporting cast, struggles by Hakeem Nicks, and just a general disconnect between Eli Manning and his receivers. It’s a high confidence play on the Raiders.
New York Giants 17 Oakland Raiders 16
Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5
Confidence: High
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New York Giants: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#27)
Last week: 27 (+0)
Record: 2-6
The Giants are only 2 games back in the NFC East after winning two in a row. Considering their tendency to rip off multiple wins in a row over the past 10 years in the Manning/Coughlin era, they should not be taken lightly by the rest of the division. Their turnover margin has gone from -16 in the first 6 games to +4 over the past 2 weeks. Of course, they’ve had much easier competition as both Philadelphia and Minnesota are bottom-10 teams in these Power Rankings, but their turnover margin was bound to improve eventually. That’s just how turnover margins generally work. They still have 3 divisional games left, along with a home game against the Raiders, and could be a threat to make the playoffs if they can pull a couple of upsets along with those.
Week 8 Studs
LE Justin Tuck
DT Linval Joseph
CB Prince Amukamara
FS Will Hill
Week 8 Duds
RG David Diehl
LG Kevin Boothe
RE Mathias Kiwanuka
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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick
New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
One powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 49-24 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (38-38) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Giants have room to play with here because they are 5.5 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.
However, I question how even these teams are. Philadelphia isn’t as good as their record at 3-4 as the 3 teams they’ve beaten have a combined 3-17 record. They have a terrible defense, which allows their opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, despite the easy schedule. Their offense is strong, moving the chains at a 76% rate, but not enough to keep pace with what their defense is allowing.
However, the Giants are even worse in that aspect. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate and they are only moving the chains at a 66% rate. Part of that has to do with their terrible turnover margin though. Their turnover margin is a league worst -14, but Eli Manning probably won’t throw an interception on 5.6% of his passes going forward, considering his career rate is 3.4%. The Giants also probably won’t recover just 40% of their fumbles going forward. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent, so this might not kill them going forward like it has thus far.
That being said, they didn’t look good against Minnesota, despite winning the turnover margin by 2. They looked much better against the Bears, when they lost the turnover margin by 3, but only lost the game by 6 and would have probably won in Chicago if not for a pick six. On paper, they are the more talented of these two teams, but games aren’t played on paper and there’s a chance they just are a marginal and inconsistent team all season. That being said, I’m afraid to go against them with the trend on their side given that I do believe they’re the better team on paper. They’re also a dangerous team as road underdogs in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, going 33-19 ATS as road dogs since 2004. I’m taking the Giants, but I’m not confident.
Philadelphia Eagles 27 New York Giants 23
Pick against spread: NY Giants +5.5
Confidence: None
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New York Giants: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#27)
Last week: 28 (+1)
Record: 1-6
The Giants won this week, but they were significantly less impressive this week than they were in a loss to the Bears, a game which they would have won if they were even competitive in the turnover battle. Against the Vikings, they didn’t move the ball well and relied on the turnover battle heavily. Eli Manning missed throws and throws that weren’t missed were dropped by receivers like Hakeem Nicks, who isn’t making himself a ton of money in a contract year. Meanwhile, Peyton Hillis looked like he was signed off the couch this week (which he was), rushing for 36 yards on 18 carries. We’ll see how they play going forward, but they might just be a fringe team all season.
Week 7 Studs
LE Justin Tuck
RE Jason Pierre-Paul
DT Shaun Rogers
ROLB Jacquian Williams
SS Antrel Rolle
Week 7 Duds
WR Hakeem Nicks
RE Mathias Kiwanuka
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Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6)
The Giants have yet to win a game this season, but they played their best game of the season last week in Chicago. They moved the ball easily against, admittedly, a Chicago defense that is a shell of its former self thanks to injuries, age, and departed coaches. They still lost the turnover battle by 3, including a pick six that turned out to be the decisive play on the final score. However, turnovers shouldn’t be as big of a problem going forward.
The Giants are a league worst -16 in turnovers, an average of -2.7 per game. That has them on a pace of -43 on the season, which would shatter the modern day record of -30. Even if they are all-time bad (which I don’t think they will be), they could still see their turnover margin cut in half going forward. This type of thing is inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, as teams who have a margin of -4 in a given game average a margin of +0.0 the following game. The same is true for teams who have a margin of +4 in a previous game.
Their poor turnover margin is the result of two things, an unsustainably low fumble recovery percentage and an uncharacteristically high interception rate from Eli Manning. They are recovering just 26.7% of fumbles on the season. That won’t continue going forward. Eli, meanwhile, is throwing a pick on 6.5% of his attempts, a stark contrast from his career rate of 3.4%. I don’t expect that to continue. They are also -30 in points off of returns, thanks to two punt return touchdowns allowed and 3 defensive touchdowns allowed. That probably won’t be an issue going forward.
The Giants still aren’t moving the ball great on the season (66%), while their opponents are moving it at an 80% rate. However, they get by far their easiest opponent of the season this week in the Vikings and they get them off of 11 days rest, after playing the Bears on Thursday Night the previous week. The Vikings are 1-4 on the season and they’ve been every bit that bad.
They have benched both Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel for Josh Freeman, who will make his debut for the team this week, roughly 2 weeks after being signed. That’s not a good sign, especially considering he was completing less than 50% of his passes in Tampa Bay before being cut. The Vikings are also going to be without Harrison Smith in this game, which won’t help matters at all defensively, where they are already allowing opponents to move the chains on a 79% rate.
Of course, the line does suggest that the Giants will get their first win, as they are favorites of 3.5 points, but I think they have a very good chance of covering the spread as well. The Vikings are in a tough spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs, facing the Packers next week. Teams are 49-74 ATS in that spot since 2002. I wish this line was -2.5 or -3, but I still like the Giants to win by about a touchdown.
New York Giants 27 Minnesota Vikings 20
Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5
Confidence: Low
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