Giants

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11) at New York Giants (8-7)

The Giants are in a must win game here, but that doesn’t mean that this means more to them. The Eagles would love nothing more here than to play spoiler and eliminate a division rival. That being said, I actually really like the Eagles here. There’s absolutely no pressure on them, while all the pressure is on the Giants. This is normally a good situation for a divisional dog.

The Eagles generally do well in these low pressure situations under Andy Reid. They’re 15-6 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or dog in the Andy Reid era, including 8-2 ATS in the division. Here, they are 7.5 point dogs (more nfl odds here). As bad as they’ve been this year, this year hasn’t been any different in that regard. They have covered both times as touchdown dogs this season, including a road win in Tampa Bay and a cover in Dallas in a divisional contest.

The Giants, meanwhile, are terrible in “easy win” situations, especially at home and especially in the 2nd half of the season (under Coughlin they are 53-19 ATS in the first 8 games of the season and 29-42 in the 2nd). They are 5-10 ATS as 2nd half home favorites of 4 or more under Tom Coughlin, including 2-6 ATS in the division. The Eagles also generally dominate the Giants, going 7-2 ATS against team since the start of the 2008 season. As bad as they’ve been this season, they actually beat them way back in week 4.

Yes, they were 3-1 at the time, but they weren’t playing good football, getting blown out in Arizona and beating Cleveland and Baltimore by a point a piece. Right now, they’re not playing great football either, but they’re not as bad as they once were. In their last 5 games, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which was a weird Thursday Night game in which they were unfocused on a short week (having played 3 games in 11 days) and blew a 13-10 lead by turning it over 4 times in 5 plays.

It’s not like they’ve been playing easy teams either. They kept it within a touchdown of both the Cowboys and Redskins, who are actually ahead of the Giants in the standings. They beat Tampa Bay, who was playing well at the time, and they hung within 8 of a Carolina team that was about to go on a 4-1 stretch.

They’ll be going back to Michael Vick this week with Foles injured, but I have a feeling we’re going to get a great performance from him in an audition for a starting job after he’s been stewing on the bench for a few weeks. Maybe that was the wakeup call he needed. He was 19 of 30 for 241 yards (with 49 rushing yards) and a touchdown against these Giants in a win earlier this year. Expect him to be just good enough to trick some crappy quarterback needy team into paying him too much money this offseason (sorry Cardinals/Chiefs/Browns/Bills/Jaguars/Raiders/Jets fans).

The Giants, meanwhile, are not playing well at all right now, losing their last two games by a combined score of 67-14. Against Baltimore, they were outgained 533-186. Only the Bills, in a 45-3 loss in San Francisco, have been outgained by more in a game this season than the Giants were last week. Their last win was a game against the Saints in which they became the first team in 12 years to have 400+ return yards. That’s not going to be here to bail them out. They’re in no position to be laying more than a touchdown. I’m taking the points for a big play. The Giants, however, are my last survivor pick of the season.

New York Giants 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA, STL, IND)

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +7.5 (-110) 4 units

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New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Giants, Ravens

New York Giants (8-6) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The Giants stunk it up last week in Atlanta, getting shut out, losing 34-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out the Lions as huge home dogs last week after that 52-0 loss in Arizona the week before. I was especially looking forward to doing this with the Giants, a team that tends to have their best games when nobody believes in them.

However, I only like doing this when the team is a dog. Here as a favorite, it’s a different dynamic for the Giants. They’re supposed to bounce back and win. They’re not going to be overlooked and they certainly aren’t undervalued, especially as publicly backed favorites and anyone who reads these picks frequently knows I love to fade the public because they always lose money in the long run.

I really wish that the Giants were dogs here. Not only do they always thrive when people doubt them and not only do dogs tend to cover off a blowout loss, but road dogs off a road loss also tend to cover, going 86-51 ATS since 2008. However, with Baltimore in freefall after their 3rd straight loss, that couldn’t happen here. This line opened at even and now it’s moved to the point where the Giants are actually favored by 2.5 and not just favored, but heavily publicly backed favorites.

Given that, I actually like the Ravens here a little bit, albeit in a game that’s a bit of a tossup for me. Not only do I love to fade the public, as the public always loses money in the long run, but the Giants frequently fall flat when they’re expected to win and with the Ravens in freefall even more than they are, that’s the case here. Instead, it’s the Ravens who are the doubted ones and I like their chances of avoiding their first 4-game losing streak in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era. Harbaugh is 6-1 ATS off of a double digit loss.

Besides, every year in the Tom Coughlin era, the Giants have a 2nd half slide. Since he took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 29-41 in the second 8 games of the season. This year has been no different as they started 6-2, but thanks to a 2-4 stretch, they are now 8-6, not bad, but not as good as it once looked.

It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 94 touchdowns to 83 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

Net points per drive also says this game is a bit of a tossup and that we’re getting line value with the Ravens now for that reason. The Ravens are 11th in net points per drive at 0.21, while the Giants rank 8th at 0.42. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that this line should be a true pick em. DVOA supports this as the Giants rank 7th in regular DVOA and 8th in weighted, while the Ravens rank 10th and 13th respectively.

It’s definitely not a huge play, but I like the Ravens more than I like the Giants this week, though I’d rather have the Ravens +120 on the money line than anything spread wise because this game is a real tossup. On one hand, the Giants frequently collapse in the 2nd half and frequently struggle in games they’re supposed to win, while the Ravens are the doubted ones attempting to avoid their first 4 game losing streak in 5 seasons.

On the other hand, the Giants do well on the road under Tom Coughlin (50-28 ATS, including 24-16 ATS in the 2nd half of the season). This is also a bigger game for the Giants than the Ravens, as they are fighting for the playoffs and I do like Eli Manning in big games. The Ravens clinch the division before this game even starts if the Steelers beat the Bengals, which I think will happen, though I do expect them to still give 100% with a huge need for momentum before the playoffs. Obviously, you don’t want to go into the playoffs on a 5 game losing streak. There was also a point when the Ravens won 16 straight at home, though they’ve now lost 2 straight and that 16 game stretch featured few blowouts and a weak schedule. Rank this one near the bottom in confidence pools, but the Ravens are the pick.

Public lean: NY Giants (80% range)

Sharps lean: NYG 24 BAL 6

Final thoughts: I’m still uncertain. I thought about switching my uncertainty to the other side, but I still like +120 more than anything. The Giants frequently disappointed when they’re expected to win, especially in the 2nd half of the season.

Baltimore Ravens 24 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2.5 (-110) 0 units

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New York Giants: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 13 (+0)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: 0.42 (8th)

DVOA: 13.3% (7th)

Weighted DVOA: 10.5% (8th)

I went back and forth on Chicago/NY Giants for the final playoff spot. The Giants control their own destiny, but the Bears have very winnable games against Arizona and the team who lost to Arizona (Detroit) to finish their season, while the Giants have to go to Baltimore. If they can win in Baltimore, they should make the playoffs, only needing to win at home against the Eagles week 17 to get in, but that game isn’t easy.

It’s a tossup for me, but I’m leading towards Baltimore (and Chicago for the final playoff spot) because the Giants always struggle when they’re expected to win and as road favorites with all the public action on them, that’s the case. Baltimore, meanwhile, is being overlooked after 3 straight losses and once won 16 straight at home. If the Ravens had won last week and the Giants had been dogs and not heavily backed by the public, I’d be all over them, but Baltimore should be the right side this week, knocking the defending Super Bowl champs out of the playoffs.

Studs

RT David Diehl: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

WR Domenik Hixon: Caught 5 passes for 80 yards on 6 attempts on 20 pass snaps, 7.6 YAC per catch

DT Chris Canty: 1 sack on 16 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

Duds

QB Eli Manning: 13 of 25 for 161 yards and 2 interceptions, 1 batted pass, 45.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 29 drop backs (1 sack, 3 of 9, 2 interceptions)

LG Kevin Boothe: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts

WR Victor Cruz: Caught 3 passes for 15 yards on 5 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 1 penalty, 3.0 YAC per catch

CB Jayron Hosley: Allowed 6 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

SS Antrel Rolle: 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 4 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 54 yards on 3 attempts

ROLB Keith Rivers: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 2 attempts

LE Justin Tuck: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Falcons, Giants

New York Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (11-2)

Every year in the Tom Coughlin era, the Giants have a 2nd half slide. Since he took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 29-40 in the second 8 games of the season. This year has been no different as they started 6-2, but thanks to a 2-3 stretch, they are now 8-5, not bad, but not as good as it once looked.

It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 94 touchdowns to 81 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

They blew out the Saints last week, but I wouldn’t be so sure that everything is fine, especially given their 2nd half history. They blew out the Packers 3 weeks ago and then responded by losing as favorites in Washington the next week. That loss actually pushed their record off a 2nd half win by 14 or more to 3-6 SU since 2004. Their huge win over the Saints was a little fluky too. If not for over 400 return yards, the first time a team has done that since 2000, they could have lost. After all, they were outgained and the rest of the teams’ stats looked fairly similar.

What that win did do was get people believing in them again. Most of the guys on ESPN are picking them to win this one and the Giants, as mere 1 point dogs against an 11-2 team, are a very heavy public lean. Not only do I love fading the public (especially when they back a dog and especially when they back a dog this heavily), Giants fans will tell you, it’s not a good thing that people believe in this team. That tends to be when they disappoint and they’re deadly when people are doubting them.

This week they have to go to Atlanta, who isn’t as good as their record, but they’re still a good team. It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people called them overrated so many times that people don’t think they’re even a good team. They’re not 11-2 good, but I have trouble believing that they deserve to be mere 1 point home favorites against anyone. Maybe New England, but no one else. The real line is at Atlanta -1, based on the net points per drive method, which holds up to DVOA, but that still seems a little ridiculous. They’re also dogs and there have only been 2 instances in the last 23 years of a team being home dogs with 2 or fewer losses in week 13 or later.

Another big reason this line seems ridiculous to me is because of Matt Ryan’s dominance at home. He’s a ridiculous 31-5 at home in his career. At times I’ve wondered if they have become a better road team than home team this season, as all 3 of their wins by more than 10 points have come on the road, and because they’ve struggled to beat inferior teams like Arizona, Oakland, Carolina, and Dallas at home. But they are still 6-0 SU at home this season and even though they haven’t always covered the spread at home this year, Matt Ryan is still 23-12 ATS as home in his career.

If not for their 2008-2011 history, I’d be concerned that, in spite of their 6-0 home record, they’d lose this one because they haven’t really played anyone at home and they’ve barely beaten some bad teams. However, because of their history at home, I like them to win this game. They’re especially good as non-divisional home favorites, going 13-6 ATS (18-2 SU) as non-divisional home favorites in the Matt Ryan era.

Another situation they’ve been really good in since 2008, when Mike Smith and Matt Ryan came in, is off a loss. Well coached teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Falcons are just that. In fact, if Mike Smith’s name were anything other than Mike Smith, he’d probably be talked about as one of the better Head Coaches in the NFL. He’s a ridiculous 17-4 ATS off a loss.

I’ve been down on Atlanta a lot this year, but I love them this week. The Giants are not a good 2nd half team. They’re not good when people believe in them and I love betting against such a heavy public lean. Meanwhile, this is a statement game for an Atlanta team that always gets it done at home and always bounces back well off a loss.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Atlanta Falcons 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: Atlanta -1 (-110) 3 units

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New York Giants: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 13 (+0)

Record: 8-5

Net points per drive: 0.67 (3rd)

DVOA: 20.3% (7th)

Weighted DVOA: 21.8% (5th)

They got their big win this week, but the more important thing is the Redskins did too. The Redskins have a very easy schedule the rest of the way and if they win out, the Giants will have to do so too to win the NFC East, which would require wins in Atlanta and Baltimore. I think they win 1 of 2 and beat the Eagles week 17 to finish 10-6. The Redskins take the NFC East on a divisional record tiebreaker and the Giants are the 7th team in a loaded NFC and don’t get one of the 6 chairs at the end of the day.

Studs

RB David Wilson: Rushed for 100 yards (43 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 13 attempts, 3 broken tackles, 4 kickoff returns for 227 yards

LG Kevin Boothe: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 35 yards on 4 attempts

LT William Beatty: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps

WR Victor Cruz: Caught 8 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 3.4 YAC per catch

CB Jayron Hosley: Did not allow a catch on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 1 quarterback hit and 8 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

LOLB Michael Boley: Allowed 12 catches for 104 yards on 12 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Prince Amukamara: Allowed 2 catches for 73 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles

ROLB Mathias Kiwanuka: 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Giants, Saints

New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Giants (7-5)

Earlier this week, I outlined why the Redskins should be considered the favorites to win the NFC East. The Redskins, presumably, have the tiebreaker, by virtue of their better divisional record. They are a game back right now, but they are almost definitely going favored in each of their last four games, while the Giants will be favored in just two of their final 4.

If the Redskins can win just 3 of 4 (games against Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Dallas look very winnable), that will force the Giants to have to win at least 3 of 4 as well and with games against New Orleans, Baltimore, and Atlanta in 3 of their final 4, that’s going to be very tough. I’m hardly counting them out, but the Redskins should be considered the favorites.

That’s pretty crazy considering the Redskins would have basically been eliminated had they lost last week to the Giants. They would have been 3 games up, holding the tiebreaker (by virtue of sweeping the season series), with 4 games to go. That would have made Washington’s magic number for elimination 1, meaning the Redskins would have been eliminated unless they won out and the Giants lost out, highly unlikely. How did the Giants get from that point (favorites in a game which would have basically eliminated the Redskins) to this point or even how did they get from that awesome 6-2 start to this point?

Well, the easy answer is they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 28-40 in the second 8 games of the season. It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 90 touchdowns to 79 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

The Giants are actually favored here, one of two games they are expected to be favored in the rest of the way. However, that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win. In fact, they really struggle as home favorites, especially bigger home favorites like this and in the 2nd half of the season. Eli Manning is 5-15 ATS as home favorites of more than 3 since 2004 in week 9 or later.

The Saints, meanwhile, are in a great spot. Drew Brees is 8-3 ATS in his career with the Saints as dogs off a loss. He failed to cover in this situation last week, but the fact that he lost last week opens up another trend. Teams are 85-48 ATS as road dogs off a road loss since 2008. That should help to combat the fact that Brees isn’t normally the same quarterback outside of his dome. Brees is 2-0 ATS in that spot since joining the Saints.

Besides, after arguably the worst performance of his NFL career, he’s going to want to bounce back. The great ones always do. On top of this, the Saints are dogs before being favorites, as they host Tampa Bay next week. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs, which the Giants will be as they pay a visit to the Falcons.

I considered this to be a pure 5-unit pick of the week, but I decided to make it a 4 unit co-pick of the week for several reasons. One, the Giants might have another one of those eff you games like they had against the Packers. They were favorites against the Packers, but played like dogs because the Packers were public dogs. The Saints are public dogs this week, something I hate betting on anyway, but it doesn’t have the same feel as the Packers game.

Not of lot of people believe in New Orleans right now and people generally feel the Giants will still win the NFC East. If anything, the Saints are going to have the eff you performance this week. Also, the real line for this game is Giants -8.5 using net points per drive differential and it holds up moderately well against DVOA. Still, the Saints should be the right side, both for the reasons I mentioned earlier and because the Giants basically have to lose the NFC East and miss the playoffs if we’re going to have an 18th straight year of 5 new playoff teams. There are essentially 7 returning playoff teams already locked into playoff spots this year.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

Sharps lean: NO 6 NYG 5

Final thoughts: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: New Orleans +4.5 (-110) 4 units

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New York Giants: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 14 (-6)

Record: 7-5

Net points per drive: 0.55 (6th)

DVOA: 16.5% (8th)

Weighted DVOA: 18.4% (7th)

Studs

RB Ahmad Bradshaw: Rushed for 103 yards (47 after contact) on 24 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 13 yards on 2 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass block snaps

WR Victor Cruz: Caught 5 passes for 104 yards on 8 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 9.2 YAC per catch, 1 drop

RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 3 quarterback hurries on 12 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

LT William Beatty: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 15 yards on 5 attempts

C David Baas: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 9 attempts

RT Sean Locklear: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 16 yards on 4 attempts

WR Rueben Randle: Caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 2 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 10.0 YAC per catch, 2 punt returns for 11 yards

ROLB Keith Rivers: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 15 yards on 1 attempt

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants

New York Giants (7-4) at Washington Redskins (5-6)

Since Tom Coughlin took over as Head Coach of the New York Giants before the 2004 season, the Giants have always been a much better 1st half of the season team than 2nd half of the season team. In the first 8 games of the season, they are 53-19 and in the 2nd half, they are 28-39. Not so coincidentally, Eli Manning’s play seems to dip in the 2nd half of the season as well, as he completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 89 touchdowns to 79 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

The Giants definitely had a bounce back week last week, after looking their last two and losing poised to have another 2nd half slump, but that doesn’t mean everything is turned around necessarily. Of those 28 wins, 10 of them have come by 14 or more. They’ve had big wins in the 2nd half of the season in the past and it hasn’t meant their season has been turned around and I don’t think that is the case this season. In fact, after those 10 games, they are just 3-5 SU (2 of them were playoff games so I threw those out, because playoffs are a different story). They’re also just 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS (-6.1 points ATS per game), as favorites off a win in the 2nd half of the season under Tom Coughlin.

It’s important to note that their win last week has made it so that they are publicly backed this week. Not only do they tend to have let down games when people believe in them (especially after such a big win when the public was doubting them), but the odds makers always win in the long run, so I like to fade the public as much as I can. It’s never a bad thing to be on the same side as the odds makers. It’s also important to note that they lost key safety Kenny Phillips with an injury. He returned for the Green Bay game and had a real impact, both with his play at safety and allowing Antrel Rolle to be used in his traditional role closer to the line of scrimmage, before getting hurt again.

I really don’t think the Giants will make the playoffs. They are 7-4 right now with a tough upcoming schedule. They go to Washington this week, then host the Saints, go to the Falcons and Ravens, before an easy week 17 game against Philadelphia. Every year, there are 5 new playoff teams and that can’t happen this year unless the Giants miss the playoffs. Indianapolis and Chicago look like locks to be 2 of the 5 and the only 4 other candidates really are Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Washington.

Because Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Seattle can’t win their divisions and are all in the same conference, only 2 of those 3 teams can make it, which means if that’s going to happen for the 18th straight year, the Redskins basically have to make the playoffs, unless someone like Miami or San Diego can steal Pittsburgh’s spot (a long shot). Washington’s schedule down the stretch is pretty easy. If they can win here, they’d be a game back with a home game against Baltimore, road games in Cleveland and Philadelphia, and a home game for the Cowboys. I think both teams finish 9-7 and the Redskins win it on a tiebreaker. They absolutely need to win here to keep hope alive of not just winning the division, but of continuing something that’s happened for 17 straight years and counting.

I originally thought the Cowboys would take the NFC East from the Giants, but the Redskins threw themselves right back into the mix with a win in Dallas last week, something I should have seen coming. I didn’t realize the Redskins could have been where they are now if they beat Dallas. I definitely gave up on this young team too early. There’s a lot to like with them. They rank 18th in net points per game, 14th in DVOA, and 13th in weighted DVOA. Only one of their losses was by more than a touchdown and they easily could be 8-3 or 7-4 right now. Robert Griffin is really on fire right now, especially with Pierre Garcon returning from injury.

The net yards per play method of computing real line says the Giants are getting a little bit of line value here, as it says this line should be New York -4, with the Giants 6th in net points per drive and the Redskins 18th, but DVOA tells a slightly different story. DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes other things like strength of schedule into account, so I like to look at it to compare to net points per drive when computing real line. The Giants are 7th in DVOA and weighted DVOA (which weights more recent games heavier), while the Redskins are 14th and 13th in those respectively, which is a smaller gap.

Taking into account that the Redskins are finally healthier, the Redskins are 5-2 ATS as dogs this season, the Giants are without key safety Kenny Phillips, the Giants tend to struggle in the 2nd half of the season, divisional home dogs tend to cover after a win as divisional road dogs (28-14 ATS since 1989), and that history basically mandates the Redskins win here, I like the Redskins for a significant play.

Public lean: NY Giants (60% range)

Sharps lean: NYG 10 WAS 7

Final update: No change.

Washington Redskins 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Washington +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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New York Giants: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 14 (+6)

Record: 7-4

Net points per drive: 0.59 (6th)

DVOA: 18.2% (7th)

Weighted DVOA: 18.1% (7th)

Tier 3: Former Super Bowl champs who could be scary if they get hot

Studs

RB Ahmad Bradshaw: Rushed for 58 yards (19 after contact) and a touchdown on 10 attempts, caught 2 passes for 61 yards on 2 attempts

FS Kenny Phillips: 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, was not thrown on

RE Osi Umenyiora: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

ROLB Mathias Kiwanuka: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackle, 1 assist, 2 stops

RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LG Kevin Boothe: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 5 attempts

LT William Beatty: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 34 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 25 yards on 4 attempts

WR Rueben Randle: 2 kickoff returns for 0 yards, 2 fumbles, caught 2 passes for 26 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts on 14 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Giants, Packers

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4)

What’s wrong with the Giants? That’s what everyone is asking. Well, they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-39 in the last 8 games of the season, including these last 2 losses. Eli Manning has been the main problem of late and not just in the 2 losses. Dating back to their two close wins over Washington and Dallas, Manning is 80 of 139 for 869 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games.

Manning reportedly had a case of tired arm, which does explain why he’s struggled by his standards, but tired arm isn’t some rare thing. It’s something guys often have to deal with over the course of the season. The Giants have had a bye, but I can’t say for sure that Manning will completely turn things around and the same for the Giants as a whole, given the Giants’ history in the 2nd half in the Coughlin/Manning era.

I’ve mentioned the huge disparity in records, but Eli’s play generally drops off in the 2nd half. In the 1st half of the season, he completes 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions. In the 2nd half, he completes 57.2% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 86 touchdowns, and 79 interceptions. I don’t think the bye is going to solve their problems. They especially struggle as home favorites after week 8, going 10-20 ATS since 2004.

The Packers, meanwhile, are incredibly banged up. They’re missing 3 of their starting linebackers, Nick Perry, Desmond Bishop, and Clay Matthews. Matthews is the most important injury because he’s their only consistent pass rusher. DJ Smith, who was filling in for Bishop in the middle, is also hurt. Stud starting safety Charles Woodson is also out, as is #1 receiver Greg Jennings and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

In spite of all this, they are on a 5 game winning streak. I do think they’re a little overrated. They rank just 8th in rate of sustaining drives differential and 15th in yards per play differential, but the Giants are a little overrated too and the Packers thrive in this situation, as dogs. Aaron Rodgers is 11-5 ATS in his career getting points, which makes sense. Besides, they are dogs before being favorites as they host the Vikings next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The line is exactly where it should be. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value says this line should be Giants -3.5, while the yards per play differential method says this line should be Giants -1.5, which averages out exactly where the line is, -2.5. However, the Packers have the momentum and the Giants don’t. They always struggle in the 2nd half of the season and I love getting Rodgers as a dog. It’s a significant play on the Packers. It would be 4 units if the public wasn’t pounding Green Bay as a public dog.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: GB 12 NYG 11

Final update: No change.

Green Bay Packers 31 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Green Bay +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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