Last week: 14 (+0)
Record: 6-4
On bye.
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Giants
New York Giants: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#14)
Last week: 8 (-6)
Record: 6-4
Under Tom Coughlin, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-39 in the final 8. They have a brutal schedule upcoming, as they host Green Bay, New Orleans, and Philadelphia and go to Washington, Atlanta, and Baltimore. They’ll probably end up somewhere around the 9-7 they were last year. However, that might not cut it this year. Look at Dallas’ schedule: they host Cleveland, Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans and they go to Cincinnati and Washington. There’s no reason they can’t go 5-2 and also win 9 games. They rank 10th in yards per play differential and 12th in rate of sustaining drives differential. If they can go +0 or better in turnovers from here on out, they can definitely win this division. I’d be nervous if I was a Giants fan.
Studs
C David Baas: Didn’t allow a pressure on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 50 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts
Duds
LG Kevin Boothe: Allowed 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 4 attempts
WR Victor Cruz: Caught 3 passes for 26 yards on 4 attempts on 53 pass snaps, 0.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop
TE Martellus Bennett: Caught 4 passes for 37 yards on 9 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 2.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to
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New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 10 NFL Pick
New York Giants (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
If it wasn’t for Hurricane Sandy, I would have picked against the Giants last week. I thought they were in a really bad spot at home for the Steelers, but because the Steelers had to travel on the day of the game because of the Hurricane, I couldn’t pick them. It was one of the few games I picked incorrectly last week and fortunately it was a really low confidence pick. I just didn’t know how the storm, which had different effects on each of the two teams, would affect the outcome of the football game.
The reason I thought the Giants were in a bad spot is because they struggle at home, especially as favorites of 3 or more and because they really struggle in the 2nd half of the season, going 53-19 in their first 8 games and 27-38 in their second 8 games under Tom Coughlin since he took over in 2004. Eli Manning is struggling of late, by his standards.
He’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his last 2 games and his completion percentage in his last 2 games is under 50%. Dating back to week 7 against Washington, he’s thrown just 1 touchdown in his last 3 games (that memorable game winner against Washington), and 4 interceptions. Over in those 3 games, he’s 51 of 93 (54.8%) for 654 yards (7.0 YPA), 1 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Meanwhile, his extrapolated season numbers, 61.0% completion, 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, resemble 2005-2010 Eli much more than they do 2011 ELIte. He’s such a big part of this team’s success so it’s no surprise that they’ve struggled of late, barely putting away two inferior opponents as losing at home to the Steelers.
The Giants schedule is such that they could have yet another late season struggle this year with games against Atlanta, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Green Bay outside of the division, along with 3 divisional rivals, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Washington, that always play them tough. Fortunately for them, they have a pretty commanding divisional lead right now, so they’re not really in danger of missing the playoffs unless something goes horribly wrong.
Also fortunately for them, that won’t really matter this week as this is probably their easiest remaining game on their schedule, especially since they’re going into a bye. Much like home favorites of 6+, road favorites do well going into a bye as well. Not as well, but if you exclude road favorites of 7+ (a situation teams generally struggle to cover in), road favorites heading into a bye are 28-15 ATS since 2002.
Cincinnati started 3-1, but now stands at 3-5 4 games later. Andy Dalton has still yet to beat a playoff team. He went 0-8 against such teams last year and is either 0-3 or 0-4 against those such teams this year (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami, Denver). In those 12 games, he is a combined 257 of 451 (57.0%) for 2718 yards (6.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.
This year, his 3 wins have come against opponents who are a combined 6-20 and he’s actually lost at least once against non-playoff teams, something he didn’t do last year, so you could argue he’s regressed. Some of that can be blamed on an inferior defense however. They’re allowing 27.3 points per game, 25th in the league, after allowing 20.2 points per game, 9th in the league, last year. They’ve been especially poor against the pass, 25th in the league, so Eli Manning should be able to have a bounce back game this week, as he usually does when people are doubting him.
If Eli can make this a shoot out, Dalton doesn’t stand much of a chance. Jay Gruden is an excellent offensive coordinator who can mask Dalton’s flaws against average or bad opponents, but he’s really, really struggled against playoff caliber opponents. I don’t expect him to break through this week. As much as the Giants tend to disappoint at home, they’re great on the road, going 50-25 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era, easily the best in the league over the 8 and a half seasons he’s been their Head Coach. That includes 18-7 ATS as road favorites.
The Bengals are in a good spot here as well, as home dogs are 56-38 ATS off a loss as home dogs, and we’re also getting line value with them. The yards per play method of computing line value says this line should be Cincinnati -3.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method says this line should be NY Giants -3.5, both of which are below the actual line of -4.
The Giants are also heavily publicly backed. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.
However, at the end of the day, the Giants should still be the right side. They’re great as on the road, and as road favorites specifically, and road favorites of less than 7 are great going into a bye. I don’t think this is the week Dalton breaks through and beats a playoff caliber team and the spread is small enough for that to be a reason to take the Giants. It’s not a big play though.
Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)
Sharps lean: NYG 12 CIN 7
Final update: No change.
New York Giants 27 Cincinnati Bengals 20
Pick against spread: NY Giants -4 (-110) 2 units
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New York Giants: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#8)
Last week: 5 (-3)
Record: 6-3
I picked the Giants to win last week, but it wasn’t confident and I only picked them because the Steelers had to travel on the day of the game because of Hurricane Sandy. In normal conditions, I would have picked the Steelers because this is right around when the Giants struggle. Under Tom Coughlin, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 27-38 in the final 8 games of the season. If anyone in their division could give them a challenge for a playoff spot, they might not be in my top-12, but their division has been incredibly disappointing after a strong start to the season.
Studs
LT William Beatty: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 4 attempts
LG Kevin Boothe: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts
LE Justin Tuck: 2 sacks on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 stops
RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle
RE Osi Umenyiora: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle
CB Corey Webster: Allowed 2 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop
Duds
QB Eli Manning: 10 of 24 for 125 yards and an interception, 1 thrown away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 50.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 26 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 6, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown)
RT David Diehl: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 29 yards on 5 attempts
RG Chris Snee: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts
WR Hakeem Nicks: Caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 4 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch
CB Jayron Hosley: Allowed 5 catches for 59 yards on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop
MLB Mark Herzlich: 5 solo tackles, 3 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts
DT Chris Canty: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, 1 assist
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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants: Week 9 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) at New York Giants (6-2)
Last week, the Giants won in Dallas in the exact type of game they normally win. They are now 18-7 ATS as road favorites under Tom Coughlin. On the road in general, they are 50-25 ATS under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 34-38 ATS at home. As home favorites of more than 3, which they are this week, they are 18-26 ATS under Tom Coughlin. This is the exact type of game they normally have trouble with.
This is also the exact time of year they struggle. The Giants are now 53-19 in the first half of the season under Tom Coughlin, but they are also just 27-37 in the 2nd half of the season. Looking at their schedule, we could see something similar happen. This week, after a tough game with the Steelers, they go to Cincinnati, host the Packers, go to Washington, host the Saints, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host the Eagles. As home favorite of more than 3 after week 8, Tom Coughlin is 5-15 ATS.
Meanwhile, we’re also getting line value with the Steelers. The rate of sustaining drives differential method suggests this line should be New York -4.5, while the points per play differential method suggests this line should be Pittsburgh -1.5. If we average those out, we get New York -1.5, so we’re getting 2 points of line value with the Steelers. We’re also getting the Steelers in a good spot. Dogs before being favorites are 86-49 ATS since 2011. They host Kansas City next week.
Given all this, you might think I’m going to take the Steelers. Well, it was going to, until I found out that because of the hurricane, the Steelers will not be able to stay in a hotel in the North Jersey area before the game, which means they’ll have to fly in Sunday Morning to play this afternoon game. That puts them at a huge disadvantage in terms of game prep for a team that already has had its share of struggles on the road over the past couple years (not as much as dogs). They’re also pretty banged up as Troy Polamalu is out once again and Ryan Clark looks like he’ll join him. I don’t love the Giants or anything, but I can’t take the Steelers.
Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Giants covers)
Sharps lean: PIT 14 NYG 4
Final update: The sharps like Pittsburgh and I get it, but I can’t take the Steelers given that they have to travel on game day. I don’t like the Giants much either, but they’re the pick here, gun to my head. Also, some good news on the injury front for the Giants. Kenny Phillips is expected to return this week. Stevie Brown played very well in his absence, but because Antrel Rolle moves to corner on passing downs, 3 safeties usually get significant action for them on a weekly basis, so having Phillips back, with Brown playing well, is a good thing. Also for Pittsburgh, Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall are both expected to miss this week, meaning Isaac Redman will get the start at running back. They’ve played well in their last few weeks because they’ve run the ball well, but when they haven’t this year, they’ve typically lost.
New York Giants 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5 (-110) 1 unit
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New York Giants: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#5)
Last week: 5 (+0)
Record: 6-2
The Giants are now 53-19 in the first half of the season under Tom Coughlin, though they are also just 27-37 in the 2nd half of the season. Looking at their schedule, we could see something similar happen. This week, they host the Steelers, then they go to Cincinnati, host the Packers, go to Washington, host the Saints, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host the Eagles. They have a commanding lead on the NFC East, for now, but it’s not over. The Cowboys have been better than their record suggests and the Eagles are always the opposite of the Giants in the 2nd half of the season.
Studs
LT William Beatty: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts
FS Stevie Brown: Allowed 3 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts, 2 interceptions, 7 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle
DT Chris Canty: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hits on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop
MLB Chase Blackburn: 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 attempts
K Lawrence Tynes: 8 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 69.5 yards per kickoff, 20.6 average opponent’s starting position, 5/5 FG (26, 37, 37, 41, 43)
P Steve Weatherford: 6 kickoffs for 287 yards, 2 inside 20, 2 returns for 8 yards, 46.5 net yards per punt
Duds
C David Baas: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 65 yards on 12 attempts
WR Victor Cruz: Caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 8 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception
SS Antrel Rolle: Allowed 4 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles
LE Justin Tuck: 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles
CB Jayron Hosley: Allowed 3 catches for 50 yards on 4 attempts, 3 penalties, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist
LOLB Michael Boley: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 7 catches for 66 yards on 11 attempts
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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: Week 8 NFL Pick
New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
This line opened as Cowboys -1 and I was ready to make a big play on the Giants for several reasons. For starters, in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 39-21 ATS as a dog. Also in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 49-25 ATS on the road and 34-38 ATS at home. This shouldn’t surprise anyone who knows anything about this team. They play their best when people don’t believe in them and that’s often the case when they’re road dogs. Vice versa, they have a reputation for falling flat when expectations are high.
The 3rd reason has to do with the 1st half/2nd half disparity in the Tom Coughlin era, with regards of halves of the season. In the first 8 games of a season in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 52-19 SU, as opposed to 27-37 SU in the 2nd half of the season. Even last year, when they won the Super Bowl, they started 6-2, but finished 3-5 to end up at 9-7. In 2007, their first Super Bowl year, they did the same thing, starting 6-2 before finishing 4-4 to end up at 10-6.
Their schedule this year suggests they could have that type of year once again. After they play the Cowboys, the Giants host Pittsburgh, go to Cincinnati, go on a bye, host Green Bay, go to Washington, host New Orleans, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host Philadelphia. However, while the Cowboys opened as 1 point favorites, they are now 2 point dogs, a 3 point in week swing and a 4 point swing from when they were -2 last week.
The reason for that is the injury to middle linebacker Sean Lee. Lee is one of the best linebackers this year and was playing out of his mind this year. Only San Francisco’s NaVorro Bowman ranks higher at middle linebacker on ProFootballFocus than Lee. Losing him for the year will definitely hurt, but I don’t know if it’s worth a 3 point line movement by itself. That type of line movement is normally reserved for injuries to quarterbacks. It’s also worth noting that the public is still pounding the Giants.
In spite of that, I won’t be switching my pick to the Cowboys. I’ll simply be dropping units down to 1 unit on the Giants. Lee’s absence will hurt and the Giants are still on the road and in the first half of the season. Besides, the Giants are 17-7 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era as road favorites, surprisingly. And as much as I hate betting on a heavy public lean, it’s worth noting that the line movement is consistent with the action, so there’s no threat of a trap line. Besides, as I’ve mentioned, I love favorites this week because eventually that disparity between dogs and favorites (dogs are 63-39 ATS this year) will close. Neither dogs or favorites have finished over 10 games above .500 over the course of a whole season in at least the last decade.
Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)
Sharps lean: NYJ 18 DAL 8
Final update: One of just 4 clear sharps leans this week. I’m going to add a unit on the Giants. I like the Giants as road favorites a lot (17-7 ATS) and like favorites in general this week.
New York Giants 31 Dallas Cowboys 27
Pick against spread: NY Giants -2 (-110) 2 units
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New York Giants: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#5)
Last week: 6 (+1)
Record: 5-2
Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants are 52-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-37 in their final 8. Their schedule this year suggests a similar thing could happen this year. After going to Dallas this week, the Giants host Pittsburgh, go to Cincinnati, go on a bye, host Green Bay, go to Washington, host New Orleans, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host Philadelphia. That being said, the Giants seem to be at their best after a rough stretch so if they struggle down the stretch and still sneak into the playoffs, like last year and in 2007, look out.
Studs
WR Victor Cruz: Caught 7 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 9.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to
TE Martellus Bennett: Caught 5 passes for 79 yards on 7 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 3.4 YAC per catch
Duds
C David Baas: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 4 attempts
MLB Chase Blackburn: Allowed 4 catches for 65 yards on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops
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Washington Redskins at New York Giants: Week 7 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (3-3) at New York Giants (4-2)
When I first saw this line, I instantly thought, trap line. The Giants were coming off a huge win in San Francisco and yet this line was suspiciously only at -7. My belief was furthered when the line started to actually fall even more and now it’s down to -5.5. The issue: this case was missing the critical element of a trap line, a heavy public lean on the side where the line action was moving away from. The public is actually pretty split here, even with the falling line.
It’s possible it’s just a trap line that’s not doing its job, which wouldn’t make it any less of a trap line, but that argument is hurt by that fact. Fortunately, that’s not the only reason why I like Washington this week. If it was, it’d probably be a small play. Instead, this is going to be a big play on the Redskins, for several reasons.
For one, the Giants are coming off a big upset win in San Francisco and are now dogs before being favorites as they head to Dallas next week. Favorites before and after being dogs are 79-112 ATS since 2008, though it’s worth noting they’re 25-34 ATS off a win as dogs, which isn’t as strong. However, going off of that, the Giants are divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs. Teams are a ridiculous 14-46 ATS in that spot since 2002, meaning they cover just 23% of the time. Furthermore, it just makes sense that they would overlook Washington this week. They did that twice last year and are coming off a huge win with a big divisional revenge game on the schedule next.
Washington, meanwhile, is a little underrated. They do sit at 3-3, but all 3 of their losses have come by a touchdown or fewer and all 3 involved some sort of injury to a key player who is now healthy that could have easily changed the outcome of that game. Against St. Louis, they lost top cornerback Josh Wilson. Against Cincinnati, they lost top offensive lineman Trent Williams. Against Atlanta, they lost their starting quarterback Robert Griffin and saw his replacement throw 2 picks. All 3 of those teams are quality opponents as well.
Furthermore, we are getting some line value with Washington if we use the traditional yards per play differential metric, which gives us a “real” line of -2.5 in favor of the Giants. One issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively).
Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other.
Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4thdowns. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).
You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1stand 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, the Giants are at +11.8%, while Washington is at +1.4%. The difference between the percents is 10.4, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of NY Giants -10, so we’re not really getting line value with either side.
It’s definitely worth noting, however, that the Giants do rank 30th against the pass and are likely to be without 2 starting defensive backs, so while Washington doesn’t have a good defense, they should be able to keep this one close in a shootout. They haven’t been blown out yet so even if they lose, there’s a good chance they keep it within the spread. If we were getting a real chance to fade the public or some real line value here, it’d be a 5 unit pick, but I’m making this a 4 unit co-pick of the week. That 14-46 ATS trend is very, very hard to ignore.
Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Giants covers)
Sharps lean: WAS 18 NYG 7
Final update: Sharps love the Redskins. Feeling good about this one even though there is now a very slight public lean on Washington.
Washington Redskins 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +210
Pick against spread: Washington +5.5 (-110) 4 units
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New York Giants: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#6)
Last week: 13 (+7)
Record: 4-2
The Giants making a big jump this week is more indicative about how tightly packed this league is than it is indicative of anything else. If they lose to an underrated Washington team who could easily catch them off guard this week off a huge win, they could be right back where they were before. No Super Bowl Champion successfully defended their Championship since 2004. The Giants, the first team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl with 9 or fewer regular season wins and/or a negative regular season points differential, have been awfully inconsistent this year and don’t seem likely to break that trend. Eli Manning is an MVP candidate, but this still have all sorts of defensive issues (30th in the league in pass defense).
Studs
RB Ahmad Bradshaw: Rushed for 116 yards (102 after contact) and a touchdown on 27 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 1 attempt
CB Prince Amukamara: Allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 6 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle
SS Antrel Rolle: Allowed 2 catches for 67 yards on 4 attempts, 2 interceptions, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop
LE Justin Tuck: 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 assist
DT Linval Joseph: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops
RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops
Duds
RT Sean Locklear: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt
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Football Fan Spot 