Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

I had the Buccaneers as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010. It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better than 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games. There is definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, there’s no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012.

Their young defense should be better with another year of experience and they could get a bounce back year from Aqib Talib. They also get Gerald McCoy back from injury. McCoy is an incredibly valuable player when healthy. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers. However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season.

Eric Wright, though he was not worth his giant contract, will be an upgrade at cornerback over Ronde Barber, who has been moved to safety. They also add rookie safety Mark Barron to an improved defensive backfield and rookie linebacker Lavonte David to one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last year. The new coaching staff will also bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. They probably won’t be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should help this defense be more middle of the pack.

Offensively, they have the additions of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, as well as potential bounce back years from Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, key parts of their 2010 team. They also add running back Doug Martin in the first round of the draft. Gone is Kellen Winslow, but that might be a good thing. Of Freeman’s 22 interceptions, 9 were targeted for Winslow, most in the league. Davin Joseph is also gone for the year with injury, but he’s one of the most overrated players in the league so that’s not a huge deal. Josh Freeman probably won’t have the 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions he had in 2010, but he probably won’t have the 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions he had last year.

In the opener, they not only proved me right, but they showed they may actually be better than what I thought. I had them right in the middle of 4 and 10 wins at 7, but if their defense continues to play like that (remember, they were the 9th ranked defense in 2010), they’re going to be much closer to 10 wins than 4. The idea with the underrated teams was to bet them until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. They didn’t prove me wrong, but I’m starting to wonder if maybe the odds makers caught up. They’re just +7 here on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs and keep in mind, they are still just 3-14 against teams that finish with a record of .500 or better, which the Giants almost definitely will.

For that reason, I’m pretty torn on this one. They may still be underrated, but not nearly as much as they were last week, when they were home underdogs for a Carolina team that won 6 games last year. However, the Giants are coming off an emotional loss and may come out flat in this one. Super Bowl champs are 2-6 ATS week 2 ever since the NFL started having defending Super Bowl champs play on Thursday Night Football (Wednesday Night Football this year because of some stupid political crap).

Now, the last 8 have all won that opener, but even teams that lose that game are 2-6 ATS the following week. It’s an emotional game for both sides, for the defending Super Bowl champ because they get a big celebration and get their rings and for the opponent because they want to knock off the champs, especially after watching them celebrate and get their rings. Both sides tend to be flat the following week and that could happen to the Giants this week.

However, the Giants are 7-3 ATS under Tom Coughlin as favorites after losing as a favorite. In a very similar situation last year, after having a dud week 1 performance in a multi-score loss to the Redskins, they blew out the Rams the following week as favorites. Besides, this is typically a good team in the first half of the season. They’re 40-26 ATS during the first 9 weeks of the season under Tom Coughlin, and straight up, they’re 47-18 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. Plus, as I said, the Buccaneers have trouble beating .500+ teams.

So what’s my pick? I’m going with the Buccaneers to continue to prove that they’re underrated, even if they’re significantly less so than last week, and to keep this one close and within the 7 points, but to ultimately lose. The ATS trends seem to suggest that the Buccaneers will cover, even if the SU trends seem to suggest that the Giants will win outright, so that’s what I’m going with. I also am taking this opportunity to not only bet on one of my preseason underrated teams, but also to “fade” the public, something I love to do. It’s not entirely by design, but I’ve actually faded the public in every pick so far this week. It’s not a very big bet though.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

New York Giants 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-110) 2 units

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New York Giants: Week 2 Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 14 (-4)

Record: 0-1

Yes, they may be defending Super Bowl champs, but they were also the worst regular season team to even win the Super Bowl in terms of wins and point differential. They’re a good team that can get hot, but not an elite team. I said that before the season and I stand by it now. They have major problems in the secondary and on the offensive line and while they have the talent to make the playoffs, they play in football’s most crowded division in the tougher conference. I think the 4 NFC East teams will all cannibalize each other in divisional play, finish with 8-10 wins, and only send one team to the playoffs.

Studs

QB Eli Manning: 21 of 32 for 213 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 4 drops and 1 throw away, 106.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured 15 times

RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 6 quarterback pressures on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 stop on 30 run stop snaps

LOLB Keith Rivers: 6 tackles, 1 assists, and 4 stops on 13 run stop snaps, 1 completion for 10 allowed yards allowed on 2 attempts

LOLB Michael Boley: 1 quarterback pressure on 4 blitzes, 1 interception and no completions allowed on 2 attempts

P Steve Weatherford: 4 punts for 201 yards, 3 of 4 inside the 20, one touchback, 3 returns for 3 yards, 44.5 net yards per punt

Duds

RT David Diehl: 2 sacks, 5 quarterback pressures allowed, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 carries

LT Sean Locklear: 1 quarterback hit, 4 quarterback pressures allowed, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 carries

RB David Wilson: 4 yards on 2 carries, 1 fumble

WR Victor Cruz: 6 catches for 58 yards on 11 targets, 3 drops on 36 pass plays, 2 penalties, 2.8 YAC per catch

CB Corey Webster: 5 completions allowed for 127 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts and 1 deflection

CB Justin Tyron: 3 completions allowed for 61 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 1 missed special teams tackle

LE Justin Tuck: No sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 stop on 24 run stop snaps

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I might be the biggest Giants doubter left out there. I believe that this is not an elite team, but a very good team that can get hot and play like an elite team for stretches. They did that down the stretch last season, but I think this season, we’re going to see them play like they normally play, pretty well, but not good enough to be considered among the elite teams in the league. That being said, this line is absolutely ridiculous. The Giants are -3.5 at home against the Cowboys, who they beat twice in 4 weeks last season, hanging 68 points on them, while allowing just 48. This line suggests that Cowboys are just a half point better than the Giants (add 3 for home field advantage).

Part of that is just that the Cowboys are being very overrated right now, once again. They’re a frequently overrated team because of their name and their status as America’s team, but they never seem to meet expectations and I think this season will be another instance of that. Their interior offensive line still sucks. In fact, it might be worse with Nate Livings, one of the worst interior offensive lineman in the league last year, coming in at left guard and at right guard, it will be Mackenzy Bernadeau, a career backup and former 7th round pick randomly given a starter’s salary and starting job in Dallas this offseason. Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland are gone and, as strange as it might sound, they might miss those two. Phil Costa, one of the worst centers in the league last year, returns, unfortunately.

They also lack depth in the receiving corps and at running back. The former is more important in this game because Jason Witten is unlikely to play. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are likely to play, after both dealt with injuries in the preseason, but it’s very concerning that the latter’s injury was a hamstring problem. Those things tend to linger and affect your ability to play at your normal level of play even if you do play. Austin missed 6 games with hamstring problems last year and was limited to just 43 catches for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns in 10 games last year, well off his career averages. Behind Bryant, Austin, and Witten, their backup receivers have a combined 37 career catches. John Phillips, who has 22 of those, will get the start in Witten’s likely absence, which is a major downgrade, both as a pass catcher and as a run blocker. Jason Witten is frequently one of the best run blocking tight ends in the league.

The Cowboys lack of depth at running back is notable because starter DeMarco Murray has injury issues dating back to his days at the University of Oklahoma. His primary backup is Felix Jones, but he’s never proven he can handle the load when given a chance to start and he’ll probably get hurt before Murray, given his history. The Cowboys added two new cornerbacks, Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr, after getting torched by the Giants last season, but only the latter will have much of a positive impact in this game. Rookie cornerbacks like Claiborne tend to take a year or so to get up to NFL speed. Even Patrick Peterson really struggled in coverage last year. Claiborne probably won’t have a very good 1st game in the NFL, which is notable because the Giants have two great receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. They won’t be able to contain both. The safety position and defensive line, especially with Jay Ratliff hurt, are also weaknesses and they still lack a complimentary pass rusher opposite DeMarcus Ware, so defense is still a problem and the Giants should be able to move the ball pretty easily.

The Giants are dealing with their own injuries at left tackle and cornerback, but it’s not a huge issue because they dealt with injuries there last year and still won the Super Bowl. The latter is not much of a concern at all. Yes, with William Beatty expected out, Sean Locklear is going to have his hands full with DeMarcus Ware, but Eli Manning, like his brother is one of the best in the league at throwing under pressure and avoiding sacks. Eli Manning’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was 70.3% last season, which led the league. Meanwhile, his sack percentage (sacks per pressured drop back) was 12.4%, only behind Michael Vick. It’s because of this that he was able to win the Super Bowl despite having the worst offensive line in the league in terms of pass blocking efficiency. For example, Eli Manning was under pressure from DeMarcus Ware 12 times in 2 games last year with David Diehl starting in place of an injured Beatty, but only took 2 sacks. Eli will neutralize Ware again.

The injury at cornerback is slightly more concerning. Yes, Terrell Thomas missed all of last season with injury and Prince Amukamara, who is expected to miss this game with injury, didn’t have much of an impact as a rookie. Aaron Ross is gone, meaning Michael Coe will step into the starting lineup. Ross wasn’t great, so it’s not a major downgrade from what the Giants threw at the Cowboys last season, but up until the playoffs, the Giants didn’t really do a good job of stopping anyone. They allowed 25.0 points per game, including 24 per to the Cowboys in their two meetings and that was after they had their trio of defensive ends mostly healthy (Umenyiora did miss the first game). The Cowboys will be able to move the ball pretty well.

This is going to be a shootout, but the question is, can the Cowboys beat up with the Giants? I don’t think so. The Cowboys’ offensive line will be overwhelmed by the Giants pass rush and unlike Manning, Romo isn’t quite as bulletproof under pressure. His under pressure accuracy was 64.6% last year, pretty good, but not as good as Manning. His also took a sack on 20.5% of pressured snaps, 7th worst in the NFL. The Giants will get to him for a few sacks and stall a few drives and keep him pressured really for most of the evening. Both teams will be able to run the ball pretty well with good talent at running back. The Giants had the worse run defense last year, 4.5 YPC, and are now missing Chris Canty for the year, a talented starter for them last year at defensive tackle. The Cowboys allowed 4.1 YPC, but they’re also missing top defensive tackle Jay Ratliff have the worse interior offensive line so they won’t be able to fully take advantage of the Giants’ struggles against the run. Both teams will run pretty well, but neither team will distinguish itself from the other on the ground.

When it comes down to it, I like Eli Manning to outplay Tony Romo in this one once again. It’ll be a high scoring affair, but I think the Giants have the better team and they always seem to have the Cowboys’ number, beating them in 5 of their last 6 matchups. They also play much better football in the 1st half of the season, going 47-17 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. Through week 9, they’re 40-25 ATS under Coughlin.

The Giants also have the situational edge as they’re playing in a “stand alone” week 1 game as defending Super Bowl Champs. Since the NFL started the traditional of having defending Super Bowl champions play in a week 1 “stand alone” game at home in 2002 (first on Monday Night Football, then Thursday Night Football, and this year on Wednesday Night Football because of some stupid political crap), the defending champ is 10-0 and covers 7 out of 10 times. Teams are normally very emotional and amped up after the pregame celebration and that translates to the field in a positive manner. I don’t think the Giants will break tradition here and I am fairly certain they will win and cover.

Prediction: New York Giants 31 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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New York Giants Final Roster Analysis

stevenlourie Final Roster Analysis, Giants

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Eli Manning was obviously locked in and backup David Carr was as close to locked in as you can get because the only other quarterback competing for a spot was Ryan Perriloux and he never really made it much of a battle for the backup job. He was cut as the Giants decided once again to only carry two quarterbacks this season. Punter Brian Weatherford will remain the emergency quarterback.

Running Backs

Ahmad Bradshaw and backup David Wilson were locked in. Bradshaw will start and Wilson will see significant action behind him. DJ Ware was, at one point, being considered for the goal line, short yardage, 3rd down role, but he was a somewhat surprising cut as the Giants decided to keep Andre Brown and Da’Rel Scott instead. Brown is their biggest back and only true bruiser so he could see short yardage situations, while Scott, a 7th round pick in 2011, was kept for mostly developmental purposes. Fullback Henry Hynoski was also brought back and kept as the Giants’ only fullback.

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Receiving Corps

Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz were locked in, as was Dominek Hixon, who won the 3rd string job, meaning he’ll play outside opposite Nicks in 3-wide receiver sets, allowing Nicks to focus on the slot. Reuben Randle, the team’s 2nd round pick, was also locked in even though he didn’t win the 3rd string job because of his draft status. 2011 3rd round pick Jerrel Jernigan was also locked in, both because of his draft status and also because he was their starting kick returner and punt returner.

That left maximum one spot for another receiver and they used it, keeping 2010 3rd round pick Ramses Barden, giving the 6-6 receiver one more chance. At tight end, starter Martellus Bennett and 4th round rookie Adrien Robinson were locked in and Bear Pascoe joined them, staying on the roster as a blocking specialist.

Offensive Line

Starters Kevin Boothe (left guard), David Baas (center), and Chris Snee (right guard) were all locked in. On the outside, William Beatty is not expected to play week 1 at left tackle. Instead, Sean Locklear will probably be their left tackle, which is a problem. David Diehl was their left tackle last season, but he really struggled and is now on the right side, where he beat out 2011 4th round pick James Brewer. All 4 of those offensive tackles looked pretty locked in on the roster.

However, instead of keeping Matt McCants, a 6th round rookie offensive tackle, they cut him and signed undrafted free agent DJ Jones, who has been waived by the Eagles, which is not a good sign for McCants’ career. An even worse sign for McCants’ career was when Jones failed his physical, they brought back Mitch Petrus, a guard cut the day before, instead and kept McCants on the practice squad. Petrus, who saw significant action last season with injury, will continue to be a reserve left guard, while Jim Cordle stuck as a reserve center.

Defensive Line

Starters Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Linval Joseph are locked in, as is pass rushing specialist. However, another starter, Chris Canty at defensive tackle, was put on IR, meaning he’ll miss the whole season. Rocky Bernard will take his spot in the starting lineup as Marvin Austin is also hurt, so Bernard is locked in as well, as is Austin, even though the 2011 2nd round pick hasn’t played in a live game since 2009, missing 2010 at North Carolina with a suspension and last season with a torn pectoral.

Needing a 4th defensive tackle, the Giants kept 7th round rookie Markus Kuhn over veteran Marcus Thomas. The Giants kept 2 more defensive ends, Adrian Tracy, who could see a situational role in absence of free agent departure Dave Tollefson. Tracy, a converted linebacker, would come in when the Giants bring out 4 defensive ends. They also kept undrafted free agent Adewale Ojomo as a 5th defensive end. He’ll be a frequent game day inactive unless he can carve out a special teams role, but he was kept for developmental purposes.

Linebackers

Locked in as the starters were Mathias Kiwanuka and Michael Boley on the outside and Chase Blackburn, who beat out Keith Rivers in Training Camp, at the middle linebacker spot. Rivers was likely a lock given that the team just gave up a 5th round pick for him to compete for the starting middle linebacker spot. He’ll provide depth across the board at linebacker.

Having kept 9 defensive lineman, the Giants could realistically only keep 6 or 7 linebackers. They kept 7, giving them 16 front 7 sevens, choosing 2nd year players Jacquian Williams, Mark Herzlich, and Spencer Paysinger over fellow 2nd year player Greg Jones. Williams was a 6th round pick last year, as was Jones, while Herzlich and Paysinger were undrafted, but Herzlich, a cancer survivor, provided himself to be valuable on special teams last year and a developmental prospect at either middle linebacker or outside linebacker. He’ll backup Blackburn at middle linebacker. Paysinger, meanwhile, simply beat out Jones, a former draft pick, as a former undrafted free agent.

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Secondary

At cornerback, the Giants needed depth. Not only was Terrell Thomas lost on IR with ACL problems for the 2nd straight season, replacement starter and 2011 1st round pick Prince Amukamara was out for at least week 1 with a high ankle sprain. The Giants kept Amukamara, obviously, along with established starter Corey Webster and 3rd round rookie Jayron Hosley. The Giants then kept two veterans, Michael Coe and Justin Tryon. Coe will get the week 1 start at cornerback, as Hosley could miss that game as well. Tryon is currently listed as the slot cornerback, so we might not see Hosley until week 2 at the earliest.

With all of the injuries at cornerback, the Giants needed depth at safety because Antrel Rolle would likely be playing a lot on the slot as a cornerback in sub packages, especially early in the season, meaning they would use 3 safeties more often than most teams, something they already did last season. They didn’t bring back Deon Grant, who was that 3rd safety last year. The veteran is probably done in this league.

With Tyler Sash, originally supposed to serve in that role, missing the first 4 games of the season with suspension, the Giants kept Stevie Brown, a 7th round pick of the Raiders in 2010, to be their 3rd safety. Will Hill surprisingly made the roster after going undrafted and unsigned last offseason because of character problems. When Sash returns, one of those two is probably gone, likely Hill, unless Brown bombs in his audition.

Specialists

Lawrence Tynes and Steve Weatherford remain as their place kicker and punter once again, as is the case pretty much every year. Those are their only two kickers. Another familiar face is long snapper Zak DeOssie. Jerrel Jernigan will return both punts and kickoffs, with Dominek Hixon backing him up as punt returner and Da’Rel Scott backing him up as kick returner.

Practice Squad

DE Matt Broha

G Selvish Capers

OT Matt McCants

WR David Douglas

TE Larry Donnell

G Stephen Gooden

CB Laron Scott

DE Craig Marshall

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Giants place Chris Canty on PUP

stevenlourie Giants, News

A key contributor of the Giants’ Super Bowl run last year, Chris Canty, will miss the first 6 weeks of the season after being placed on the reserve/PUP list earlier this week. Canty had knee surgery this offseason and has yet to practice. An above average defensive tackle, Canty had 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 22 quarterback pressures en route to a Super Bowl victory last year and played the run well as well. He’ll be able to play week 7 at the earliest, meaning he’ll miss at least 6 games.

In his absence, Linval Joseph, already a breakout candidate, will play more snaps, particularly on pass rushing downs, where the 2010 2nd round pick really improved as last season went on. Veterans Marcus Thomas and Rocky Bernard will also see an increase in snaps, as could 2011 2nd round pick Marvin Austin, assuming he too is healthy. Austin hasn’t played in a live game since December of 2009. He missed all of the 2010 season at North Carolina with suspension and missed all of last season with a torn pectoral. He recently suffered a setback with his back and is no sure thing for week 1.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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New York Giants Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Linval Joseph

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Giants

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New York Giants, that player is defensive tackle Linval Joseph.

The Giants have one of the best defensive lines in the league. They ranked 3rd in the league with 48 sacks last season and their defensive line play was a key part of their Super Bowl run. When you think of their defensive line, the obvious names come to mind: Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, etc. You probably don’t think about Linval Joseph, but if he keeps it up, you will.

Joseph was a 2010 2nd round pick and, in his first season as a starter in 2011, Joseph played very well. After playing just 63 snaps as a rookie, Joseph played 611 in 2011 in the regular season. On 304 pass rush snaps, he had 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, a rate of 6.6%. If you include his postseason production, he was even more impressive as he had 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 389 pass rush snaps, a rate of 8.0%.

His improvement as the season went on is a large part of why I think he can have a breakout year in 2010, his 3rd year in the league. In his last 6 games, he had 3 quarterback hits and 12 quarterback pressures on 133 pass rush snaps, a rate of 11.3%. Joseph was also unlucky to manage just 2 sacks last season. His 6.4 pass productivity rate was tied for 5th in the league. If he does that in 2012, which is definitely possible if he continues his down the stretch performance, he should have somewhere between 4-6 sacks.

Joseph also gets it down against the run, ranking 5th in the league in run stop percentage with 25 run stops on 286 run stopping snaps, a rate of 8.7%. If you include playoffs, he ranked only slightly lower, 9th, with a rate of 8.3%. The big 328 pounder’s specialty has obviously always been the run, but if he continues to improve as a pass rusher, he would be the complete package and could break out as one of the better defensive tackles in the league.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Giants’ Terrell Thomas expects to play this season

stevenlourie Giants, News

Though it originally looked like Terrell Thomas could miss a 2nd straight season with a torn ACL, it appears he merely “aggravated” and “stretched” the surgically repaired ACL. He will still miss at least 3-8 weeks and will almost definitely begin the season as a gameday inactive. 2011 1st round pick Prince Amukamara would then take his place in the starting lineup opposite Corey Webster.

It’s also possible he misses even more than the start of the season. The timetable is ominously vague, 3-8 weeks, and you never like to see someone re-aggravate an injury that cost him a whole season last year and have to miss any portion of significant time. He should play this season, but Giants fans should not expect to see him on the field for at least the 1st quarter of the season.

Amukamara should be able to adequately fill in for him in the starting lineup and it’s not like they missed him a ton last season, when they won the Super Bowl. However, this was not what the Giants had in mind when they guaranteed Thomas 11 million this offseason (4 years, 17.4 million total), and, after losing Aaron Ross as a free agent this offseason, the Giants really lack depth at the cornerback position. Jayron Hosley, a rookie 3rd round pick, is their 3rd string cornerback with Thomas out, but the Giants don’t seem to trust him as they are expected to move safety Antrel Rolle to the slot in sub packages.

It’s unclear who would come in at safety for them in that situation as 3rd string safety Tyler Sash has been suspended 4 games, but it would make sense for them to call up Deon Grant, who played significant snaps as a 3rd safety last year. He’s still a free agent, but for good reason, heading into his age 33 season. It’s also worth noting that Rolle struggled on the slot last season, allowing 32 completions on 42 attempts (76.2%) for 334 yards (8.0 YPA), as opposed to 41 completions on 57 attempts (71.9%) for 507 yards (8.9 YPA) as a safety, which I guess isn’t much better.

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New York Giants 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Giants, News

WR Victor Cruz

Victor Cruz would technically be a restricted free agent next offseason, so they could slap a 1st round tender on him and continue to negotiate with him or force him to play out the 2013 season on the tender. However, the Giants may want to avoid a Mike Wallace situation, especially if Cruz continues to produce like he did in 2011 (82 catches for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns). He’s definitely worth the wide receiver franchise tag value (9.4 million in 2012), barring a regression, and the Giants could choose to franchise him, rather that slap a 1st round tender on him, as an act of good faith.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

S Kenny Phillips

Of course, the Giants do have other options. After a nasty injury early in his career, Phillips has emerged as one of the better safeties in the league. The safety franchise tag value is pretty inexpensive (6.2 million in 2012), and for that reason, 4 players at the position have been slapped with it in the last 2 seasons, Tyvon Branch, Michael Huff, Michael Griffin, and Dashon Goldson. Phillips would fit in that group, so he could definitely be tagged, but only if they decide not to go this route with Cruz, as he’s the more valuable player.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

DE Osi Umenyiora

Osi Umenyiora is a very good pass rusher, but the defensive end tag is one of the most expensive tags (10.6 million in 2012, tied for 2nd highest in the NFL), so I can’t see the Giants committing that kind of money to an aging pass rusher (age 32 in 2013), who is still only a situational player. If Umenyiora is going to remain with the Giants, it’s going to be on a pure short or long term deal.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

K Lawrence Tynes

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, they’re almost always franchised only when the team doesn’t have someone more important to franchise. Phillips and Cruz would definitely qualify, even though Tynes is a solid kicker who has been with the Giants for years and made several big kicks en route to 2 Super Bowl victories. He’s a career 80.9% kicker.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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New York Giants 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Offense

Last year, the New York Giants won the Super Bowl. However, can you argue that they were the worst regular season team to ever win the Super Bowl. They were the first team to win the Super Bowl despite single digit wins (9) and they even had a negative points differential (-6), one of only 2 playoff teams last season to have one (Denver). They barely made the playoffs and had to win their final 2 games to do so.

At 7-7 heading into week 16, it said far more likely that Tom Coughlin would be fired than that he would win his 2nd Super Bowl. In fact, had Miles Austin not dropped a wide open touchdown in the Giants/Cowboys week 14 clash, the Giants wouldn’t have even made the playoffs. You can say the same thing about a borderline “gave himself up” call in the Giants’ game against the Cardinals earlier in the season that led to a Victor Cruz touchdown.

Of course, in the playoffs, everything changed. Eli turned into ELIte, throwing to a great group of receivers, their running game finally got going after ranking dead last in the regular season, and they got just enough guys back from injury defensively that their amazing pass rush was able to shine. Some think they have turned a corner and are now the elite team that they weren’t during the regular season, as the Packers did after winning the Super Bowl the season before.

I disagree. I think this was just a team that got hot at the right time, as they did the last time they won the Super Bowl. They didn’t turn the corner and become an elite team last time. Sure, they went 12-4 in the 2008 season, the season after winning the Super Bowl, but their Super Bowl was followed by 4 straight seasons without a playoff win. It wasn’t like the Packers setting the world on fire and going 15-1 last year. They’ve proven countless times that they are not an elite team, just an above average team that can get hot at the right time. I think they’ll more closely resemble the above average team they were last year in the regular season, and in the regular seasons previous, than the elite team that won the Super Bowl last postseason.

In a loaded NFC and a loaded NFC East, that could be trouble. No defending Super Bowl champion has won a playoff game since the Patriots won back to back Super Bowls in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. I don’t think the Giants are going to be the ones to break that streak. In fact, considering they barely made the playoffs last year, and that they’re in an improved division overall (Eagles ended last year really well, Cowboys upgraded their secondary, Redskins got RGIII), they might not make the playoffs at all this season. Every year, 5 teams that made the playoffs the year before miss the playoffs the following season. The Giants could easily be one of the 5 out this season.

Quarterback

Eli Manning had an amazing season last year. He threw for 4933 yards in the regular season and played extremely well in the playoffs, carrying the team in a way he had never done before. He definitely proved himself to be an elite quarterback. However, after the Giants won the Super Bowl, I still argued I’d rather have Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees because of their consistent excellence.

Eli was on their level last year, but before last year, his career high in yards was 4021. Before last year, he might not even have been a top-10 quarterback. I need to see him do it once more before I’ll put him in that top, top tier with the 3 guys just mentioned (for the record, brother Peyton is in that tier too if fully healthy). Still, the Giants are in very, very good hands with Eli. He’s at worst the 4th best quarterback in the league and you can do a lot, lot worse than that.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Giants have always been a good running team, so it was a real surprise when they ranked dead last in yards (1427) and YPC (3.5) last season. That’s why Eli carried this team in ways he had never before. He didn’t really have a great running game to lean on. In the postseason, they got things together, a big part of why they were able to win it all.

The Giants return starter Ahmad Bradshaw, but they lost Brandon Jacobs and while his replacement David Wilson, their 1st round pick, is much more talented than the aged Jacobs, he isn’t the short yardage bruiser that Jacobs was. They could miss that. To replace Jacobs as a short yardage back, the Giants have had DJ Ware bulk up from around 225 pounds to 240 this offseason. He’ll see very limited work in specialized situations.

Bradshaw and Wilson, meanwhile, are very, very similar football players. In fact, in my scouting report of Wilson, I actually gave him a Bradshaw comparison, this of course being before the Giants took him. For that reason, I actually didn’t like the Wilson selection because you typically want complimentary players in a running back tandem. Still, Wilson is a talented back who will help their running game get back on track.

After rushing for 1235 yards on 278 carries in 2010 (4.5 YPC), Bradshaw rushed for 659 yards on 171 carries (3.9 YPC) last season thanks, in large part, to injuries, which caused him to miss 4 games and be limited in several others. Bradshaw has hardly been the picture of good health in the past in his career, aside from the 2010 season, so Wilson will come in handy as they attempt to get back to being a good running football team.

Grade: B

Wide receivers

Eli Manning was definitely helped out by a great receiving corps last season, led by the trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham. In the Super Bowl, Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick told his defense to make Manningham be the one to have to beat them. That backfired as he did with an amazing catch against the sideline on what would eventually be the game winning touchdown drive late in the 4th quarter.

Manningham is gone, after signing in San Francisco, but Manningham actually only had 39 catches for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns as their 3rd receiver last year so it’s not like he’s irreplaceable. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz were the key guys as they had 76/1192/7 and 82/1536/9 respectively and both are back this season.

Nicks is the more sure thing between the two as he was a highly ranked prospect coming out of college and has two years of great production as opposed to just one for Victor Cruz, who came out of literally nowhere to finish 3rd in the league in receiving and pace the team in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns last year. Nicks was the better receiver of the two in the playoffs, with 28 catches for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns, as opposed to 21 catches for 269 yards and 1 touchdown for Cruz. Barring any further setbacks with his foot injury (he should be good for week 1), I expect Nicks to lead the team in receiving this year, though don’t count out the Giants having two 1000 yard receivers once again.

The 3rd receiver this year is expected to be Rueben Randle as he fills in for Manningham. Like Manningham, Randle will play outside opposite Nicks in 3-wide receiver sets, with Cruz playing in the slot where he’s most dangerous. Randle will compete with veterans Domenik Hikon and Ramses Barden, as well as 2011 3rd round pick Jerrel Jernigan, but the Giants used a 2nd round pick on Randle in this past 2012 NFL Draft and considering he was seen as a steal there and one of the draft’s most NFL ready receivers, he should win that job.

Tight end, however, could be a problem for the Giants this year. Their Super Bowl victory was not without losses as they lost both Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum to torn ACLs. Those were their top 2 tight ends at an already thin position. Ballard was not expected to be able to play at all this season, so they cut him. He was then claimed on waivers by none other than the New England Patriots, which pissed off Head Coach Tom Coughlin. Beckum, meanwhile, might be able to play at some point this year but he’s pretty unproven with 26 career catches.

With those two out, the Giants signed Martellus Bennett and used a 4th round pick on Adrien Robinson. When they signed Bennett, I thought there was some real upside with him. Bennett was underutilized as a receiver in Dallas behind Jason Witten, but was talented enough as a receiver to go in the 2nd round in 2008 and he’s one of the league’s best blocking tight ends. On top of that, Manning has always gotten the most out of mediocre receivers like Kevin Boss and Jake Ballard at tight end before. However, Bennett showed up to camp at 291 pounds and while he insists that’s all muscle, that won’t help him separate from defenders. Robinson, meanwhile, is an athletic freak and a strong blocker, but he caught just 12 passes in his senior season at Cincinnati last year so the 2012 4th round pick is a major project who won’t contribute much this season.

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Offensive line

The offensive line was absolutely miserable for the Giants last year. I’m amazed they managed to win the Super Bowl in spite of it because they didn’t really get much better in the playoffs. Eli Manning was only sacked 28 times, but that’s because he, like his brother, gets the football out very quickly (he was sacked 11 times in 4 playoff games on top of that though). They were ProFootballFocus’ worst rated pass blocking offensive line and 4th worst rated run blocking offensive line. In the playoffs and regular season combined, they allowed 250 quarterback pressures. On 840 pass plays, that’s one every 3.4 pass attempts.

Their worst offensive lineman was David Diehl. Diehl played 10 games at left guard and 6 games at left tackle and managed to rank among the worst at the position at both. As a tackle, he ranked 64th out of 76 with a -22.0 (in 6 games), allowing 4 sacks, 6 quarterback pressures, and 20 quarterback pressures, while committing 2 penalties. In 10 games at guard, he ranked 76th out of 77 with a -26.1, allowing 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 28 quarterback pressures, while committing 3 penalties. Including playoffs, in 20 games, he allowed 13 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, 61 quarterback pressures, and committed 6 penalties. His -58.1 overall rating was the worst among any player at any position.

Diehl has been moved to right tackle this season. He’ll compete with James Brewer, their 2011 4th round pick, for the right to start there and he might move back to left guard and start there if he can’t win the right tackle job. Diehl and Brewer are competing for Kareem McKenzie’s old job. McKenzie was almost as bad as Diehl, allowing 9 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, 58 quarterback pressures, and committing 4 penalties in 20 games at right tackle. He, not surprisingly, remains unsigned on the open market as of this writing and may have to retire at 33 years of age.

Things were better aside from Diehl and McKenzie, but still not great. Chris Snee was their right guard once again, allowing 6 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, good for a -18.7 rating in 20 games. He’ll start there once again. Opposite him, Kevin Boothe is penciled in as the starting left guard with Diehl at right tackle, though he could lose his job to Diehl if Diehl can’t win the right tackle job. Boothe played all over the line last season, including center, and had a -19.0 rating overall with 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, 21 quarterback pressures, and 2 penalties, though he was a putrid run blocker. The Giants would still be better off with Boothe as their starting left guard and Diehl serving Boothe’s old role as a versatile 6th offensive lineman.

When healthy, David Baas played center last year. A natural guard, Baas looked out of position at center last year, as he too graded out well below average with a -11.3 rating. He allowed 3 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures. Some expected them to take a natural center like Peter Konz in the 1st round and move Baas to guard, but they didn’t do that. In fact, they didn’t put much emphasis on the offensive line at all in the draft, which was surprising considering how poorly they played last season. They used a 4th round pick on the versatile Brandon Mosley and a 6th round pick on the raw, but athletic Matt McCants, but neither will have much of an impact this season. At best, they’re going to be their 7th and 8th offensive linemen.

The only offensive lineman who wasn’t absolutely miserable for the Giants upfront last season was William Beatty, who was actually pretty average with a -1.2 rating. The left tackle allowed 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures in limited action, but he had trouble staying healthy. That’s been an issue for him throughout his career. A full season of him on the left side will really help, but if he can’t stay healthy, they’ll probably use Diehl there, which would be a nightmare again. Giants fans can hope Beatty stays healthy all year and that Brewer plays well in his 1st year as a starter and that some other veterans bounce back or maybe even that a rookie steps up, but overall things are really bleak in front of Eli Manning. The offensive line could also stifle their talented running backs once again.

Grade: C

Defense

The Giants had major issues at linebacker and with injuries in their secondary, but their pass rush was so good that no one really noticed, especially not in the postseason when their defense was just as big a part of why they won it all than Eli Manning and the offense. Heading into 2012, the Giants have a healthier secondary and added some talent at linebacker behind their amazing defensive line.

Defensive line

The Giants get after the quarterback like no one quite can. Postseason included, they had 59 sacks, 64 quarterback hits, and 211 quarterback pressures. They frequently went with 4 defensive ends on the defensive line with Jason Pierre Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Dave Tollefson, with their #4 defensive end Tollefson actually playing 575 snaps on the season (including postseason). Meanwhile, linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka blitzed more than almost any 4-3 linebacker in the league, doing so 328 times, as opposed to 251 times where he dropped into coverage.

Tollefson is gone, but he actually played horribly. He graded out with a -20.5 overall and managed just 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 355 pass rush snaps (5.6%). Converted linebacker Adrian Tracy (a defensive end in college) may take his old role or the Giants could use Kiwanuka, who has been a defensive end before in the NFL, on the defensive line more often in 2012.

Jason Pierre Paul was their leader with a 39.1 rating, producing 17 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 39 quarterback pressures on 736 pass rush snaps (9.8%). He also played the run better than every defensive end except 3 and graded out 6th overall. No other defensive end had ratings of 15+ as both a pass rusher and a run stuffer and he also batted down 10 passes, something that bothered Tom Brady a lot in the Super Bowl. He’s incredibly well rounded.

Justin Tuck wasn’t quite as good as JPP, but he spent most of the 1st half of the season injured and really caught fire late in the year in the playoffs. Tuck was ProFootballFocus’ 9th ranked defensive end in 2010 so if he’s healthy this year, the Giants’ pass rush will be near impossible to stop even in base packages with JPP and Tuck lined up outside opposite each other.

Umenyiora and Tollefson would line up on the defensive line along with those two in sub packages. I already mentioned Tollefson’s struggles, but he’s gone. Umenyiora, meanwhile, is back after getting a pay raise this offseason. Umenyiora has been complaining about not being a starter and about his contract for years, but an extra 2-3 million dollars seems to have shut him up, definitely a good thing because of how talented he is. He’s terrible against the run (which is why he’s no longer a starter), but he had 13 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures on 382 pass rush snaps, which gave him a 12.8% rate that actually led the team.

At defensive tackle, the Giants also have two talented defensive lineman who can get to the quarterback. They don’t play much in sub packages, but Chris Canty and Linval Joseph graded out with a 9.8 and a 8.1 respectively and while they were above average both against the run and as pass rushers, they were both better as pass rushers. Canty had 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 22 quarterback pressures, while Joseph had 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures.

Rocky Bernard was their top reserve last year and he was just resigned. He’ll compete with 2011 2nd round pick Marvin Austin, who missed last year with injury, and free agent acquisition Shaun Rogers for positioning on the depth chart and he might not even make the roster. He was solid last year though, but there’s definitely more upside with Austin. However, anyway you look at it, this is an incredible defensive line that might be even better this year with a healthy Tuck and the addition of Austin. In my opinion, this is the top defensive line in the league.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Things aren’t nearly as good in the back 7, but good defenses are built in the trenches. I’ve already mentioned Mathias Kiwanuka. He’s their most talented linebacker. Not only is he a good blitzer, but he also was the 5th rated 4-3 outside linebacker against the run. He’s terrible in coverage as a former defensive lineman, but they don’t ask him to do that much. Overall, he had a 10.3 rating last year, but, as I’ve mentioned, he may play more defensive lineman this year.

The Giants traded for Keith Rivers to provide depth both inside and outside. He didn’t play at all for the Bengals last year with a wrist injury, but he was a solid starter before last year and he can help in coverage. He’ll also compete for the starting middle linebacker job with Chase Blackburn. Backups Greg Jones and Mark Herzlich will also be in that competition. Jones was a 6th round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, while Herzlich was undrafted, but the team is high on both of them.

Blackburn is currently the favorite for the starting middle linebacker job. He played well down the stretch last year and even had a game changing interception of Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, but there’s a reason why he was available in November. He’s a career journeyman and a mediocre talent who could easily struggle if counted on to start this year. Luckily, they have other options should that happen, but not anyone that great. Rounding out the linebacking group is Michael Boley, an average starter who graded out as such on ProFootballFocus with a -0.4. Like Kiwanuka, he is terrible in coverage.

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Cornerbacks

The Giants had tons of injuries in the secondary last year as it seemed like they had a different defensive back go on IR every week. The two most prominent injuries were to Terrell Thomas and Prince Amukamara. Thomas was supposed to be a starter, but missed the entire season with a torn ACL. The 27 year old is talented and the Giants don’t seem too worried about his long term future as they guaranteed him 11 million this offseason as a free agent, but he was missed last year. Amukamara, meanwhile, struggled with injuries all year after being selected 19th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Thomas, barring any setbacks injury wise, will start opposite Corey Webster. Aaron Ross, who started in place of Thomas, is gone, but he wasn’t that good and Thomas, when healthy, is much better. In 2010, Thomas had a -1.4 rating and a 12.8 rating in 2009. Webster, meanwhile, was above average with a 4.9 rating last year. Neither of those two are #1 shutdown cornerbacks and the Giants ranked just 13th against the pass in 2010 with 6.8 YPA with Webster and Thomas as the starters, but it’s better than the 22nd (7.5 YPA) they ranked in 2011 without Thomas. With the awesome play of their defensive line, they should be average to above average against the pass in 2011.

Behind those two starters, Prince Amukmara should be the 3rd cornerback in his 2nd year in the league. He’ll hopefully have better health. The Giants also added Jayron Hosley in the 3rd round of the 2012 NFL Draft and he could be their 4th cornerback. At safety, Kenny Phillips is one of the most underrated players in the league while Antrel Rolle is one of the most overrated.

Phillips was their best rated defensive back with a 9.6. Meanwhile, Rolle had a -21.5 rating on the season, including a -19.8 at safety, worst at his position. That was largely because of his struggles in coverage as he allowed 73 catches on 99 attempts (73.7%) for 841 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 touchdowns, 2 interception, 1 deflection, and 4 penalties.

He’s a versatile player who can play both safety spots and lined up on the slot at times last year when they really needed cornerback depth, but he’s incredibly poor in coverage and has been for years. With improved depth at cornerback, he can focus more on being just a safety. Because of this, their #3 safety won’t see quite as much action as the 1125 snaps that Deon Grant saw last year, but they do like to use 3 safeties often so their new #3 safety, 2011 6th round pick Tyler Sash, will see the field quite often.

All in all, they should do reasonably well against the pass this year. Thanks in large part to their front 4’s play, they should rank at least in the middle of the pack against the pass. They ranked 23rd against the run with 4.5 YPC allowed, thanks in large part to poor linebacker play, but I expect them to be improved slightly in that aspect this year given all of their talent on the defensive line. Overall, their scoring defense was 25th with 25.0 points per game allowed. They should be a little better than that this year, but not nearly the 14.0 points per game they allowed in the postseason. This is still far from a top-10 defense.

Head Coach

It’s funny how things work out. Tom Coughlin might have been fired had the Giants missed the playoffs last year, but now with 2 Super Bowl rings, he might have job security for life. He’s 66 in August, the oldest Head Coach in the league, but he says he wants to coach into his early 70s and he’s certainly one of the league’s better ones. I wouldn’t have disagreed with him being fired had they missed the playoffs last year because he would have only won a playoff game in 1 of his 8 seasons and because of how poorly his teams do in the 2nd half of seasons (47-17 in the 1st half, 27-37 in the 2nd half). However, now you have to respect the two rings. One might be a fluke, but you can’t say two is.

Grade: A-

Overall

People might think they turned the corner as a team after how they played in the postseason last year, but Eli Manning is 31. He’s not some unproven, untapped potential like Aaron Rodgers was. If you look at his career, the two Super Bowl runs are the flukes. Since the start of the 2005 season, he’s averaged 9.7 wins per season and only has won playoff games in 2 of 7 seasons. This year, I think we’ll see the Giants resemble the above average team they normally are and not the elite team they were late last season. They have too many holes.

Unfortunately, they play in a stacked division. Philadelphia is incredibly talented and finally put it all together in the final 4 weeks of last season. They look poised to win the division. Washington added Robert Griffin to what was already an at least decent supporting cast and could be a real sleeper team this year as every year one team who previously had 5 or fewer wins makes the playoffs. Even Dallas, as much as they are perennial disappointments, upgraded their biggest weakness, their secondary, in a big way with arguably the free agent market’s top cornerback and the draft’s top cornerback in Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne respectively.

They won 9 games last year, which could have easily been 7 or 8. They had a negative points differential. They play in a tough conference, a stacked division, have a tough schedule and the entire league gunning for them as defending Super Bowl Champions. My prediction is that the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants will MISS THE PLAYOFFS this year.

Take a look at the schedule. In a tough division, they’ll be lucky to get 4-2 and will probably end up with 3-3 or 2-4. I mean they were barely 3-3 last year. Outside of the division, they host Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New Orleans. Tampa Bay and Cleveland should be fairly easy, but Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New Orleans will all be very tough. They should get about 3-2 out of those 5 games, which leaves them at 6-5 or so through the 11 games mentioned so far. Their remaining 5 games send them to Carolina, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Baltimore. Carolina and Cincinnati are easier, but San Francisco and Baltimore are both tough places to win and Atlanta rarely loses at home. They could definitely go 8-8 or 9-7.

Their schedule is actually set up for them to have one of their patented late season collapses as the easier games are in the 1st half of the schedule. They started out at home for Dallas and Tampa Bay, go to Carolina and Philadelphia, then return for Cleveland, go to San Francisco, then host Washington, and go to Dallas. The 2nd half, meanwhile, features Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New Orleans, as well as trips to Atlanta and Baltimore, and another game against Philadelphia. The only really tough games in the 1st half of their schedule are a trip to Philadelphia and a trip to San Francisco. This could be another 6-2/2-6 or so 1st half/2nd half split for them.

Projection: 8-8 2nd in NFC East

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New York Giants Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Giants

QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

This might seem a little low for the Super Bowl MVP, but Eli has never been an elite fantasy quarterback. The Giants will probably pass less this year after they added a first round running back in David Wilson to compliment Ahmad Bradshaw. Also, I don’t expect Manning to maintain a completely uncharacteristic 8.4 YPA from last season. Before that, his career high was 7.9 and he’s only twice gone over 7.4. In fact, I don’t expect Eli to even approach the near 5000 yards he had last year. Before last year, his career high was 4021 yards. Expect a regression towards the norm for ELIte.

Projection: 4160 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (253 pts standard/311 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NY Giants)

The Giants spent a first round pick on a back this year, which shows they’re committed to getting back to the run in 2012. David Wilson is more talented than Brandon Jacobs, but he won’t steal all the goal line carries. Wilson is also only just a rookie, which, if you look at what rookie first round pick backs have done in history, suggests he won’t have a huge impact, at least as a rookie.

Bradshaw is still the guy at least this year. And you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter. All 5 of those guys had arguably the best season of their careers in the season immediately after their team drafted a back early.

Projections: 230 carries 1010 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 38 catches 300 receiving yards (185 pts standard/223 pts PPR)

RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

8/13/12: David Wilson is getting mixed reviews in camp. On one hand, he looks incredibly explosive as a runner, but he’s also struggling with his blitz pickup and the Giants, known for easing in rookies, won’t trust him in obvious pass downs. He’ll still get a good portion of the early down work behind Ahmad Bradshaw and he remains just an injury to one of the league’s most injuries prone backs away for being a legitimate RB2, but I’m moving him down slightly.

Rookie running backs tend to struggle anyway, but David Wilson isn’t even his team’s starter yet. He’ll get carries behind Ahmad Bradshaw as the Giants try to run the ball more this season, but he’ll have to wait his turn for a starting job. He’s some fantasy value, but minimal upside barring an injury to Bradshaw.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 22 catches 170 receiving yards (116 pts standard/138 pts PPR)

WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

8/13/12: I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

8/7/12: I moved Nicks down a little bit when he got hurt, but he’s practicing already and looks fine. He won’t miss any time, so I moved him back up.

5/27/12: Nicks could be in a race to play week 1 with a broken foot. I won’t knock him down too much, but it’s worth noting.

I’ll take Hakeem Nicks over Victor Cruz. Nicks has a proven history of success as he has 79 catches for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1192 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He’s also bigger so he should have more touchdowns than Cruz, who had more touchdowns between the two last season. Hicks was also significantly better in the playoffs, 28/444/4, than Cruz, 21/269/1.

Projection: 80 catches 1070 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (167 pts standard/247 pts PPR)

WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

8/13/12: I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

I’d be wary of buying high on Cruz. He did nothing before his breakout year last year and his 18.7 YPC is going to be hard to maintain. Nicks and Cruz had equal amounts of targets last year, Nicks with 133 and Cruz with 131. If that happens again this year, they’ll probably have more similar stats. I also like Nicks to have the edge in touchdowns.

Projection: 64 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/206 pts PPR)

WR Rueben Randle (NY Giants)

Randle will come in on 3-wide receiver sets and move Cruz to the slot and he’ll see a good amount of the field. The Giants have been very impressed with him in practice so far and they used a high pick on him. Mario Manningham managed 39 catches for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns in 12 games in a similar role last year. He has some fantasy value.

Projection: 45 catches 620 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (92 pts standard/137 pts PPR)

TE Martellus Bennett (NY Giants)

Bennett was a great blocker in Dallas, but never did anything in the passing game behind Jason Witten. However, he did have 49 catches in his last season at Texas A&M and Eli Manning has made Kevin Boss and Jake Ballard look like better pass catchers than they actually were before. There’s some value with him in very deep leagues.

Projection: 40 catches 600 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (84 pts standard/124 pts PPR)

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