Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars 2014 Off-season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Jaguars, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

When the Jaguars started 0-8 with all 8 losses coming by double digits, it looked like they were on their way to all-time bad status and maybe a 0-16 season. They didn’t finish quite that bad, as they went 4-4 after the bye to finish 4-12, but I still think this was the worst team in the NFL. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits and their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49.

All those wins really did was play them out of the #1 pick when they’re the team that probably needed it the most because of their desperate need for a franchise quarterback. They’ll still be able to get a top level quarterback prospect at #3, but you obviously prefer to have the #1 pick. If they were to hit a homerun on a quarterback at 3 and get a young franchise quarterback, it would obviously go a long way towards repairing this franchise, as that’s the quickest way to turn around a team.

However, that’s far from their only problem. They need help on the offensive line and on defense. Gus Bradley did a solid job in his first year on the job coaching up some replacement level starters on defense like Sen’Derrick Marks, Alan Ball, and Will Blackmon, but he wasn’t working with much as this cupboard was left pretty bare by ex-GM Gene Smith. The good news is they’ll have among the most cap space in the league and can have even more if they cut a few underperforming veterans. The problem is that Jacksonville has never been a prime destination for free agents and with the team in shambles, that won’t change.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

Blaine Gabbert was a JaMarcus Russell/Ryan Leaf level bust as the 10th overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. He’s made 27 starts in 3 years, won 5 of them, while completing 53.3% of his passes for 5.61 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, a quarterback rating of 66.4. He doesn’t even resemble an NFL backup at this point. Chad Henne was the starter for the majority of the 2013 season, leading one of the NFL’s worst offenses and completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He could be a solid backup somewhere, but he has more career interceptions (62) than touchdowns (55). The Jaguars have reportedly been scouting quarterbacks all season and that’s almost certainly where they’re going at the top of the draft. There might not be a team that needs one more.

Defensive End

The Jaguars had a league worst 31 sacks this season and sack leader Jason Babin is unlikely to be back next season, owed 6 million in his age 34 season. That would leave Andre Branch and Tyson Alualu on the outside, both of whom are solid run stoppers that can’t do anything as pass rushers. They need a dominant edge rusher.

Running Back

Maurice Jones-Drew is a free agent heading into his age 29 season. It doesn’t sound like he’ll be back. The Jaguars want to get younger at the position and MJD will want to go to a contender and somewhere where he’ll have more help. He averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in 2013 and has scored just 6 times in the last 2 seasons as a result of the lack of talent around him.

Guard

Will Rackley at left guard is a disgrace. The 2011 3rd round pick was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked guard in 2011, missed the entire 2012 season, and was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked guard in 2013. Mike Brewster filled in for him from time to time this season and wasn’t terrible, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst guard in more significant action in 2012, so I don’t know how much you can trust him.

Offensive Tackle

The Jaguars drafted Luke Joeckel 2nd overall in 2013 to build around the quarterback position. He and Eugene Monroe appeared to make offensive tackle the strength of the team. However, Monroe was traded mid-season in his contract year, while Joeckel struggled before breaking his ankle and going on injured reserve. Joeckel will be back at left tackle next season, but they need someone to bookend him. Cameron Bradfield, who played both right and left tackle this season, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked offensive tackle. He’s a free agent anyway. Austin Pasztor filled in at right tackle and he wasn’t much better. It’s part of the reason why they allowed 50 sacks, 2nd worst in the NFL.

Center

Brad Meester has retired so the Jaguars will need a new center. Mike Brewster and Will Rackley are both internal options, but they’ve both struggled mightily thus far in their career. Either one of them could be better at center, but they should probably bring someone else in this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

Gus Bradley did a good job of coaching up Sen’Derrick Marks this season and the Jaguars extended him. They need help next to him at defensive tackle though. Roy Miller and Brandon Deaderick both struggled mightily and the latter is a free agent. The former could be a cap casualty if they’re unhappy with his performance and either way they need another defensive tackle in the mix.

Cornerback

The Jaguars cornerback trio of Alan Ball, Will Blackmon, and Dwayne Gratz actually impressed this season. All three of them graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. However, Blackmon is a free agent, while Alan Ball has been very inconsistent in the past so I don’t know how much you can trust him going forward. They could add another cornerback in the later rounds.

Middle Linebacker

Paul Posluszny had a bunch of tackles last season, but don’t let that mislead you. Almost every play ends in a tackle so somehow had to have a bunch of tackles on the Jaguars. That doesn’t mean he’s good. He was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He’s owed 7.45 million in 2014, which will make him one of the highest paid middle linebackers in the NFL and the Jaguars can save 5.5 million in the cap by letting him go. In normal circumstances, they let him go. However, the Jaguars aren’t exactly pressed for cap space so they might shy away from cutting a veteran leader. If they do cut him, they’ll need a replacement.

Tight End

Marcedes Lewis is one of the highest paid tight ends in the NFL. He’ll make 6.7 million in 2014 and the Jaguars can save on the cap 5.45 million by cutting him. He hasn’t lived up to his 58/700/10 season in 2010, which got him the contract. In the last 3 seasons, he’s averaged 39 catches for 453 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s a solid blocker and his receiving numbers are affected by the quarterback situation. Like with Posluszny, in normal circumstances, he’s probably gets cut, but the Jaguars aren’t pressed for cap space and might not want to cut one of the few solid starters they have. If they do, they’ll need to replace him.

Safety

The Jaguars had a pair of rookie safeties in 2013, John Cyprien and Josh Evans. Both of them graded out as among Pro Football Focus’ worst safeties, ranking 84th and 78th respectively out of 86 eligible. The Jaguars like both of them and they’ll probably return in 2014 as starters, especially Cyprien, a 2nd round pick who played much better in the 2nd half of the season, but Evans was just a 6th round pick and the Jaguars could add some competition.

Outside Linebacker

Geno Hayes was Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 35 eligible and the Jaguars can save a little bit of cap space by cutting him, but the Jaguars have other needs so this one might go unaddressed. If they do cut Hayes, he probably wouldn’t be hard to upgrade though.

Key Free Agents

RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Maurice Jones-Drew has seen a sharp fall from the 2011 season in which he led the NFL in rushing, with 1606 yards and 8 touchdowns on 343 carries. He missed 10 games in 2012 and only had 86 carries, which he took for 484 yards and a touchdown. This past year was even worse, as he rushed for 803 yards and 5 touchdowns on 234 carries, an average of 3.4 yards per carry. He could be better with more talent around him, but he’s also going into his age 29 season with 1804 career carries and a recent history of significant injury so it’s not like he’ll be a hot commodity on the open market. He’ll probably be looking to sign with a contender and could get a one or two year deal. There’s almost no chance he returns to Jacksonville at this point in his career.

CB Will Blackmon

Will Blackmon played a total of 31 snaps from 2009-2012 and didn’t play at all in 2012. There’s a reason the Jaguars were able to sign him right before the season started for the veteran’s minimum. However, he somehow played pretty solid this season, a testament to Gus Bradley’s ability to coach up defensive backs. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked cornerback and played 682 snaps. Much of that was run grade as he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked run stopping cornerback, but he also had an average grade in coverage. The Jaguars should be able to bring him back cheap.

QB Chad Henne

A 2nd round pick in 2008, Chad Henne has never been able to establish himself as a starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s completed 59.5% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 55 touchdowns, and 62 interceptions, a 75.3 QB rating. He’s a solid backup though so he could get a decent amount of money somewhere. He should be looking for contracts in the 2-3 million dollar range this off-season.

OT Cameron Bradfield

A swing tackle pressed into action this season, first at right tackle and then at the blindside, Cameron Bradfield was one of the worst offensive tackles in the league this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked player at his position. He was a little bit better in 2012 as the starting right tackle, but the Jaguars still drafted Luke Joeckel to replace him. It’s clear they don’t view him as a starting caliber player and that’s probably an accurate assessment. He should try to find swing tackle work somewhere.

RB Jordan Todman

Jordan Todman was given an opportunity to establish himself as a lead back type player when Maurice Jones-Drew missed time with injury down the stretch, rushing for 109 yards on 25 carries in one game. The 2011 6th round pick only averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the season though. Part of that was the lack of talent around him, but the Jaguars shouldn’t feel comfortable bringing him back as the lead back.

C Brad Meester

A 2000 2nd round pick, Brad Meester played 14 seasons and made 209 starts at center for the Jaguars. However, he’s expected to retire this off-season. It’s coming at a good time. He’ll be 37 in March and struggled in each of the last two seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd and 6th worst ranked center in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Jason Babin

The Jaguars can save 6.175 million by cutting Jason Babin and there would be no cap hit. They shouldn’t hesitate. He did have 8 sacks last season and graded out above average as a pass rusher, but he struggled mightily against the run and also committed 11 penalties. He’s also going into his age 34 season. Babin also has the option to make himself a free agent so the Jaguars might not even have to do anything to get him and his cap number off the books.

RB Justin Forsett

The Jaguars will only save 1.15 million on the cap by cutting Justin Forsett, but considering the 3rd string running back played just 100 snaps and had 6 carries this year, there’s not much use in keeping him when they can get some savings by letting him go. Reports already say he’s as good as gone.

TE Marcedes Lewis

I already mentioned Marcedes Lewis. He’ll make 6.7 million in 2014 and the Jaguars can cap 5.45 million by cutting him. He hasn’t lived up to his 58/700/10 season in 2010, which got him the contract. In the last 3 seasons, he’s averaged 39 catches for 453 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s a solid blocker and his receiving numbers are affected by the quarterback situation. In normal circumstances, he’s probably gets cut, but the Jaguars aren’t pressed for cap space and might not want to cut one of the few solid starters they have.

MLB Paul Posluszny

I already mentioned Paul Posluszny. Paul Posluszny had a bunch of tackles last season, but don’t let that mislead you. Almost every play ends in a tackle so somehow had to have a bunch of tackles on the Jaguars. That doesn’t mean he’s good. He was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He’s owed 7.45 million in 2014, which will make him one of the highest paid middle linebackers in the NFL and the Jaguars can save 5.5 million in the cap by letting him go. In normal circumstances, they let him go. However, the Jaguars aren’t exactly pressed for cap space so they might shy away from cutting a veteran leader.

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Jacksonville Jaguars re-sign DT Sen’Derrick Marks

stevenlourie Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars re-sign DT Sen’Derrick Marks

Sen’Derrick Marks has had a solid season this year. New Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley seems to have coached up the former 2nd round pick, much like he did with many players when he was the defensive coordinator in Seattle. Marks excelled as a pass rusher, generating 4 sacks, 12 hits, and 24 hurried throws on 525 pass rush snaps, while batting 7 passes at the line of scrimmage. That was good enough for him to grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked pass rushing defensive tackle and even though he got noticeably washed against the run, he still graded out above average on the season.

However, this kind of money, 4 years, 22 million with 8 million of that guaranteed, is an overpay. His play this year wasn’t worth a 5.5 million dollar a year salary and that’s before you take into account that he was one of the worst defensive tackles in the league who had a consistent role from 2010-2012. He was a bottom-15 defensive tackle in 2012 and bottom-10 in 2010 and 2011. There’s a reason all he could get was a one year deal worth 1.5 million last off-season. He’s the definition of a one year wonder and the Jaguars are definitely buying high. I think this is just a case of a team overpaying for their own talent. I don’t know who on the open market was going to pay Marks this kind of money. I don’t doubt he could continue being a solid contributor under Bradley’s tutelage, but he’s not worth this money and they probably could have gotten him cheaper.

Grade: C+

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5)

If you look at the season as a whole, the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL. Their -182 point differential is worst in the NFL. Only Houston at -146 even comes close. Their 4-11 record is actually buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, as they’ve been blown out by double digits in 9 of their 11 losses. DVOA definitely takes this into account as they remain dead last in the NFL by the Football Outsiders’ standard.

Rate of moving the chains differential also takes this into account. They move the chains at a league worst 64.02% rate and their defense doesn’t help matters, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.81% rate, a differential of -11.79%. Only Oakland even comes close, with a differential of -6.72%. That’s a massive gap. The Colts actually only rank 17th, moving the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 71.83% for their opponents, a differential of 0.07%. However, even that suggests this line should be closer to 15 instead of 11.5, given how bad Jacksonville has been on the season.

Of course, that’s just on the season. The Jaguars have been playing better football since the bye. In 7 games since the bye, they are 4-3 with just one loss by double digits. There’s a reason why they are 30th in weighted DVOA instead of dead last. Of course, those 4 wins have come by a combined 20 points, while their one double digit loss came by 13 and at home against the only even decent team they faced in that stretch, Arizona. The Cardinals stick out like a sore thumb out of a group that features Buffalo, Cleveland, Tennessee twice, and Houston twice. So would Indianapolis, at least you would think.

Indianapolis might be the toughest team in the NFL to get a read on. There’s a reason they have DVOA’s 4th highest variance (Philadelphia actually has the highest). Last season, they were nowhere near as good as their 11-5 record, as that was powered by 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished 7-9 or worse. They started out looking like that team, barely beating Oakland and losing to Miami in back-to-back home games. However, then they went on a roll over a 6 game stretch that included wins over good teams (Denver, Seattle, San Francisco) and blowout wins (34 point win in Jacksonville) that their 2012 season just didn’t have.

However, then after the bye they came out and looked like their 2012 team or even worse, with 3 point wins over Tennessee and Houston and then an 8 point win over Tennessee, but also a 29 point loss against Arizona, a 14 point loss against Cincinnati, and a 30 point loss against St. Louis. They had a -59 point differential over a 6 game stretch in which they got blown out by every decent team they faced and barely beat mediocre football teams. It reeked of 2012. However, since then, they’ve blown out the Texans by 22 and then went into Kansas City and won convincingly by 16 against a good football team.

Overall on the season, they’re not as good as their 10-5 record, as they have a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and unsustainable +11 turnover margin, which is why they are 17th in rate of moving the chains differential. However, they are definitely better than they were last season and they should be able to blow out the Jaguars here at home. I’m just concerned with how inconsistent the Colts are and that the Jaguars have been playing a little better of late. It’s a no confidence pick.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -11.5

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Titans sit at 5-9 and need to win out to finish better than 6-10 so it’s something to consider, but this isn’t like a normal six and six situation. For one, this line isn’t 6 points everywhere. In fact, in the majority of places, it’s still at 5.5. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t climb to 6 and that doesn’t mean the six and six trend is something to completely ignore, but it’s worth noting this isn’t a true six and six situation. Two, the Titans could actually win out fairly easily. They will be favored by more than a field goal in each of their final two games, as they have a home game against the Texans after this one.  Even if this line does move all the way up to 6, it might not necessarily be a six and six situation.

The Titans are better than their 5-9 record would suggest. They have a point differential of just -29 and rank 19th in weighted DVOA. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move them at a 71.73% rate, as opposed to 72.25% for their opponents, both of which are pretty decent. Their differential of -0.52% is 18th in the NFL. They’re more talented than most teams that fit the six and six trend. That trend is based off the premise that some teams should not be big favorites against anyone. I don’t think the Titans are one of those teams.

Given that, I actually like the Titans a good deal this week. While the Titans are better than their record, the Jaguars are worse than their record, which is hard to do when you’re 4-10. However, that 4-10 record is buoyed by a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Nine of their 10 losses have come by double digits and all 10 have come by at least a touchdown, which is relevant considering this line is still below a touchdown. Going off of that, over the past 2 seasons, in 15 home games, the Jaguars are just 2-13 and all 13 of those losses by come by more than a touchdown.

As a result of their many blowout losses this season, the Jaguars have easily the league’s worst point differential at -178. Only Washington at -129 is even close. They also rank dead last in DVOA, though Oakland does rank behind them in weighted DVOA. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 63.77% rate, as opposed to 75.70% for their opponents. Not only is that -11.93% differential the worst in the NFL, but no other team has a differential worse than -6.23% (the NY Jets).

Now they’re without top receiver Cecil Shorts and may also be without Maurice Jones-Drew again. Not only do the Titans deserve to be big favorites here, even on the road, but I think we’re actually getting line value with them. This line should be bigger, somewhere around 8.5. In spite of that, the public is actually all over the underdog. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on the underdog. Whenever the public thinks one team is going to win and the odds makers think another team is going to win, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. The public was all over the Jaguars as an underdog last week. How’d that work out?

On top of that, Tennessee is also in a very good spot. I mentioned they have Houston next week, so they have no distractions that would prevent them from dominating a significantly inferior opponent. Teams are 39-22 ATS since 2002 as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has to go to Indianapolis next week, which will be a bigger game for them than this one. Teams are 26-40 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. The Titans will also almost definitely be double digit underdogs in Indianapolis next week. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. I like Tennessee a good deal this week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Tennessee -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (4-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)

The Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5, including 3 straight, which somehow is tied for the losing winning streak in the AFC and the 2nd longest in the NFL behind only Philadelphia (5 games). How can they be underdogs at home against the Bills right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Jaguars as a public underdog. I love fading the public at any chance I get, as long as it makes sense, but I especially love it when it’s a public underdog. Whenever the public thinks one team is going to win and the odds makers think another team is going to win, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. Check out the latest NFL free bets.

I especially love it when the public is wrong about loving the underdog. Sure, the Jaguars have 4 wins, the same amount as the Bills, but I’d still argue this is the worst team in the NFL. There’s a reason they are home underdogs here. All 4 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less, while all 9 of their losses came by double digits. Their point differential of -171 is still by far the worst in the NFL, with only Washington (-128) coming close. They are still dead last in DVOA and by a significant margin over 31st ranked Oakland. Even in weighted DVOA, which weighs their more recent successes higher, they are still dead last, though the gap is closer.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, they are also dead last, as they move them at a 63.14% rate, as opposed to 75.70% for their opponents, a -12.56% differential. No one else has a differential worse than -6.55% (New York Jets). They may have 4 wins, but I don’t think they would have defeated any of those teams on a neutral field 51 times out of 100, including Houston, who they beat twice. I don’t think there’s any team in the NFL they’d defeat 51 times out of 100. Making matters worse, Maurice Jones-Drew, arguably their best offensive player, could be out for this one.

Not only do the Jaguars not deserve to be favorites, as the public thinks, but we’re actually getting significant line value with the Bills here. This line is too small. The Bills rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 65.35% rate, as opposed to 68.16% for their opponents, a differential of -2.81%. That suggests this line should be around 6.5 and 7, instead of 1, and that doesn’t even take into account Maurice Jones-Drew’s potential absence or any situational factors.

The Jaguars are also in a bad situation as home dogs before being home dogs, which they almost definitely will be next week with Tennessee coming to town, as the odds makers rightfully don’t respect them. Teams are 68-90 ATS in that spot since 2002. Even worse, they will probably be home underdogs of more than 3, considering they are underdogs of 1 for Buffalo, they were underdogs of 3.5 for Houston, and they were underdogs of 12 in Tennessee a few weeks ago. Teams are 35-66 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012.

They wouldn’t be focused enough to pull this upset even if they were good enough, which they aren’t. I’m just worried that the Bills could be a little distracted by Miami coming to town next week. Teams are 17-29 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being divisional home underdogs, which they could be next week. However, they also might not be and I like the Bills enough anyway. We’re also talking about a very small road favorite before being a very small home underdog (if they are). Buffalo essentially just needs to win straight up here so I have a good deal of confidence in them.

Buffalo Bills 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Buffalo -1

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)

The Texans are 2-10, a game behind the Jaguars, and lost to the Texans at home two weeks ago. Why do they deserve to be favored here on the road by 3.5 points? Well, it’s because the Texans aren’t as bad as their record, while the Jaguars aren’t as good and just because one team beats another team, doesn’t mean they’d necessary win more than 50 times out of 100.

The Jaguars have 3 wins, but all 3 of them were by a touchdown or less against bad teams and they probably would not have beaten any of the 3 teams more than 50 times out of a 100, given how they played in the rest of their games. Their nine losses have all come by double digits. They’re still, by far, dead last in the NFL in point differential, DVOA, and rate of moving the chains. The Texans, meanwhile, have just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

However, the Texans could have completely quit on the season. They aren’t used to losing like this and they hadn’t been showing a lot of effort over the past month, up until last week’s near home win against the Patriots, which was essentially their Super Bowl. Now that they’re done with that game, they might just completely mail it in. Teams usually struggle as road favorites off of a home loss as underdogs, going 38-51 ATS since 1989 in that spot.

The Texans might actually benefit from mailing it in, given that they are currently in the driver’s seat for the first pick. The Jaguars used to be in the driver’s seat for the first pick, but they didn’t seem to care about that, winning 3 of their last 4. However, there’s no reason to trust they’ll definitely put any effort into this one.  That’s the issue. This is a completely meaningless game that teams could actually benefit from losing. I’m not putting anything on that. You’d have to be a degenerate gambler to put any money on this game. Gun to my head, I’ll fade the public (slight lean on Houston) and hope for a field goal game, but I have no confidence.

Houston Texans 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: None

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 2-9

The Jaguars may have won 2 games, but make no mistake about it, this is still one of the all-time bad NFL teams. While their two wins have been close by a touchdown or less, all 9 of their losses have come by double digits. They have easily the worst point differential in the NFL at -182. No one else is worse than -101. Their -14% rate of moving the chains differential is also easily the worst in the NFL, with no one else worse than -7%. In terms of DVOA, they are not only the worst team in the NFL by far this season, but they 4th worst team in terms of DVOA through 11 games since Football Outsiders started keeping the stat in 1991. The Jaguars desperately need a franchise quarterback to help them right the ship as fast as possible, but if they keep winning like this, they may be blowing their chances. They’ll need to lose to Houston in the rematch next week, in the Teddy Bridgewater bowl.

Week 12 Studs

RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Week 12 Duds

LT Cameron Bradfield

RT Austin Pasztor

LG Will Rackley

RG Uche Nwaneri

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Browns, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Cleveland Browns (4-7)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

Does this trend apply this week to the Browns? Well, it could. They currently sit at 4-7 and would need to go 3-2 over their past 5 games to finish better than 6-10. For a team who plays 3 of its next 5 on the road and who is 1-7 on the season without Brian Hoyer under center, that could be really tough. Aside from this one, their other home game is against Chicago, which isn’t going to be easy. Even if they win that one, they’ll have to pull a road upset in either New York against the Jets, Pittsburgh, or New England to finish above 6-10. That could be really tough, especially if Brandon Weeden is under center for an extended period of time, but even if the struggling Jason Campbell returns next week.

One trend that’s definitely in play here says that teams are 34-69 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs and the Browns definitely will be next week in New England. They could completely overlook the lowly Jaguars with that game coming up, much like the Texans did last week in an eventual Jacksonville win. Going off of that, favorites of 7 or more are 9-25 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 1989.

Of course, the Browns could be justified as touchdown favorites. The Jaguars may have two wins, but they were both close. Meanwhile, their nine losses all came by double digits and they have by far the worst point differential in the NFL. Also, in terms of DVOA, not only are they by far the worst team in the NFL, they are the 4th worst team through 11 games since Football Outsiders started DVOA in 1991. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they are also dead last, moving them at a 64% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents. No one else has a differential worse than -7%.

This game has had a big line movement since last week, going from 9.5 in favor of Cleveland to 7, largely as a result of a fluky Jacksonville win making everyone forget how awful they’ve been this season. Teams are 46-68 ATS off of a win as double digits underdogs since 1989, including 25-44 ATS as dogs off of a win as double digit underdogs. You could argue we’re actually getting line value with the Browns and the public is actually all over the dog here.

On the other hand, you could argue some of the line movement had to do with the fact that the Browns have to play Brandon Weeden under center this week. Weeden has been a special kind of terrible this season, completing 51.5% of his passes for an average of 6.00 YPA, 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. This is probably the first game the Jaguars have played this season where they have the better quarterback. At the end of the day, I’m going to fade Brandon Weeden as touchdown favorites over anyone and go with the 34-69 ATS and 9-25 ATS trends, but I’m not that confident because the Jaguars are one of the worst teams of the past 20 years.

Cleveland Browns 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +7

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Houston Texans (2-8)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Texans, however, sit at 2-8 and would need to go 5-1 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend and they are favored by 10 points here. However, they might actually deserve to be. They’re much better than their record on paper. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, which ranks 10th in the NFL.

They aren’t the 10th best team in the NFL. You can’t blindly follow that, but it’s worth noting. They do rank 30th in the NFL in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, but I think they’re definitely better than that. They’re probably somewhere in between, but they’re better than their record. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have lost every game by double figures or more and rank dead last in DVOA by a large distance, so I’m not that confident in them. They should be the right side though. The Texans could also be caught looking forward to New England next week, as divisional home favorites are 21-36 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs since 1989.

Houston Texans 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +10

Confidence: Low

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