Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-7

The Jaguars lost at home by 17 to the Lions last week and some people are crediting the Jaguars’ trade of Mike Thomas to the Lions right before the game as part of the reason. The move was actually a good one for the Jaguars because they were able to get rid of his contract and get something in return for a guy who was no better than their 4th receiver at this point, but the timing was at best peculiar and at worst dumb. Thomas could have given the Lions some of the Jaguars offensive secrets like Blaine Gabbert sucks and the offense is nothing without Maurice Jones-Drew and Blaine Gabbert sucks. That information is clearly why they were able to win.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

P Bryan Anger: 4 punts for 202 yards, 3 inside 20, no returns, 50.5 net yards per punt

Duds

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

CB Derek Cox: Allowed 8 catches for 121 yards on 9 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 37 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)

Every once in a while I kick myself for not taking a line the week before. I’ve never put money on an early line, but here’s one instance I wish I had. Jacksonville was -1 last week. Even if Indianapolis had lost to Miami, I would have put a big play against Blaine Gabbert as a favorite. Aside from the obvious Blaine Gabbert sucks stuff, divisional home dogs are 10-28 ATS before being divisional double digit road dogs since 1989. The Jaguars go to Houston next weekend.

At the same time, teams are 57-82 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, the classic sandwich game. Jacksonville lost to Detroit as dogs last week. Meanwhile, road dogs trying to avenge a same season home upset loss are 50-25 ATS since 2002. The Colts lost at home as favorites to the Jaguars earlier this season.

Not only is that a good spot, things are completely different for these two teams than it was last time they played. The Colts have won 4 of 5 since, with that one loss coming in a game in which they were flat off a huge emotional win, the first ChuckStrong victory. Meanwhile, Maurice Jones-Drew is out for the Jaguars. He was 40% of their offense this year, in terms of yards from scrimmage, before his injury, which was actually down from the 47% he was last year, which was the highest by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974.

The Jaguars would have had no chance of winning last time without Maurice Jones-Drew, who rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries against a banged up Colts defense, allowing them to win despite Blaine Gabbert going 10 of 21 for 155 yards and a touchdown. It’s worth noting that 80 of those yards and the touchdown game on one play to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work.

And it wasn’t just in that game. Maurice Jones-Drew was instrumental in the Jaguars’ two wins over the Colts last year, rushing for 283 yards and a score on 50 carries in those 2 games. Gabbert, meanwhile, combined to complete 25 of 40 for just 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick in those two performances. As bad as the Colts’ were last year, Gabbert could have easily lost both of those games last year without MJD. In MJD’s absence, Rashad Jennings has rushed for a pathetic 148 yards and a touchdown on 50 carries in 3 games.

Speaking of the Colts’ previously banged up defense, they’re much healthier this time around than they were last time around, at least in the front 7, which is most instrumental to stopping the run. Both Dwight Freeney and Pat Angerer missed that game. They are now healthy, as are all of their front 7 starters. The Jaguars won’t be able to run it nearly as well as they did last time thanks to MJD’s injury and the Colts’ improved injury situation in the front 7. The Colts will be missing both starting cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers, but I have no faith in Gabbert to do much against them.

All that being said, this line has shifted from Jacksonville -1 to Indianapolis -3.5 in the last week. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s one of the biggest single week line shifts I’ve ever seen that was unrelated to a quarterback getting hurt or something like that. The good news is that all it really did was shift to where it should have been all along. The Colts are not overrated because of the line shift; they were just underrated last week, as they had been all season (-1 at home for Cleveland, +2 at home for Miami, -3 at home for Jacksonville, +7 at home for Green Bay, +1 at home for Minnesota, etc.)

We are actually still getting a little bit of line value with the Colts. The yards per play differential method of computing line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -3 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -8. That’s not taking into account fully these two team’s momentum and injury situations. This isn’t because the Colts are particularly good in either statistic. In fact, they’re outside of the top-10 in each, ranking 13th in rate of sustaining drives and 24th in yards per play differential (despite their 5-3 record, they still have a significant negative points differential, -32).

It’s because the Jaguars are so terrible. No one is within 2.4% of their dead last rate of sustaining drives differential and they have the league’s worst yards per play differential as well. The Jaguars are also still in a bad spot. Teams are 34-60 ATS before being divisional double digit dogs since 2002. That makes sense. Teams tend to be distracted before having to play what’s probably the division leader.

The bad news, however, with the line shift, is that there’s still a ton of public action on the Colts. If you don’t know, the odds makers caught killed last week, losing 12 of 14 games, including all of the heavy leans. That’s not going to continue, at the very least. At the most, we might see some sketchy things happen in games with heavy leans. I hate the combination of the giant line shift, the heavy public action, and the odds makers needing to make money back.

It’s reckless to put any money on the Colts this week. The Jaguars suck as well and the Colts, in normal circumstances, should be the right side, in spite of the line movement, because we’re still getting line value with them. However, in this situation, if I had to, gun to my head, Jacksonville would be the pick. This would be a zero-unit pick if I did them.

Indianapolis will probably win because they’re a much better team, but we could easily see some sort of sketchy backdoor cover with the Colts winning by 3. It’s not smart to bet on the Colts this week. They’re also in a few bad spots as well. First, they’re coming off a home win of 3 or fewer. Teams are 30-51 ATS off a close win as home dogs since 2002, including 8-15 ATS as favorites. Since 1989, teams are 7-16 ATS as divisional road favorites off a close home win as dogs. Meanwhile, road favorites are 8-19 ATS since 1989 after 2 or more straight wins as a dog. Finally, teams with 1 win or fewer are 77-42 ATS as divisional dogs after week 8 since 1989. I do like the under a lot more than either side. The under is 70-53 on Thursday Nights. These tend to be ugly games.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Indianapolis Colts 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 42.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Lions

Detroit Lions (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)

Nate Burleson getting hurt might have been the best thing that could possibly happen to the Lions’ offense. It forced the Lions to replace the mediocre Burleson, who was averaging 8.9 yards per catch and (5.6 yards per target), with explosive 2011 2nd round pick Titus Young and it’s also given 2nd round rookie Ryan Broyles more playing time too. It’s no coincidence that their offense looked by far the best it has all season, and against a tough Seattle defense nonetheless, in their first game without Burleson last week, even with Calvin Johnson playing at less than 100%.

They already rank 8th in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Those two stats don’t take into account special teams yardage, which is one of their flaws. Detroit had horrific special teams earlier this season, but as you could expect, that eventually settled down. If they can get Matt Stafford going like they did last week, they’re not going to be fun to play.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is absolutely horrible. I know the Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation, but in every statistic other than turnovers, the Jaguars are worse and turnover differential tends to be very inconsistent. If the Chiefs and Jaguars were to play on a neutral field, I’d probably pick the Chiefs. In rate of sustaining drives differential, they rank dead last at -15.0%. No one else is worse than -10.3%. In yards per play differential, they rank dead last at -1.2. No one else is worse than -0.9.

If we use rate of sustaining drives differential and yards per play differential to calculate real line, we get a real line of -7 in favor of Detroit in each instance, so we are getting some line value and that’s not taking into account that Detroit has the momentum right now and that Jacksonville is without Maurice Jones-Drew once again. Replacement Rashad Jennings has just 149 yards on 51 carries in the absence of someone who had been over 40% of their offense in the last 2 years.

It’s not a big play on Detroit though because Detroit is a heavy public lean and Detroit’s upcoming schedule is brutal (@ Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. Houston). Road favorites before being dogs in 3 or more straight are 20-39 ATS since 1989. They might not be completely focused for this one, but I can’t bet Jacksonville, especially against a now underrated Lions team.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean: DET 7 JAX 4

Final update: No change.

Detroit Lions 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against spread: Detroit -5 (-110) 1 unit

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-6

The Chiefs are bad, but I still think the Jaguars are the worst team in the league, in spite of the fact that they hung with a banged up Green Bay squad. In rate of sustaining drives differential, they rank dead last at -15.0%. No one else is worse than -10.3%. In yards per play differential, they rank dead last at -1.2. No one else is worse than 0.9. The Chiefs have played very poorly, but I have reason to think they won’t play quite as poorly going forward and I’ll get into that in their write up. They’re still really bad, but I’d give them a better shot to win more games going forward and if the two were to play, I would pick the Chiefs…and pass out in the 2nd quarter.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 57 pass block snaps, 1 penalty run blocked for 26 yards on 3 attempts

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 57 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 6 attempts

RG Uche Nwanari: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 57 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

RT Cameron Bradfield: Did not allow a pressure on 57 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

WR Cecil Shorts: Allowed 8 catches for 116 yards on 11 attempts on 55 pass snaps, 3.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Aaron Ross: Allowed 4 catches for 20 yards on 8 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Russell Allen: 7 solo tackle, 1 assist, 5 stops, allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection

LE George Selvie: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 13 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

WR Mike Thomas: Caught 4 passes for 19 yards on 7 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

FS Chris Prosinski: Allowed 4 catches for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Jacksonville Jaguars trade WR Mike Thomas to Detroit Lions

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Jaguars, Lions, Offseason Moves 2012

Trade for Jaguars: Mike Thomas caught 63 passes for 820 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 23 year old receiver in 2010, but it’s all gone downhill since there and he has just 13 catches for 80 yards this year, buried behind Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, and Laurent Robinson on the depth chart. Given that he’s owed 8.61 million over the next 3 seasons, I’m surprised there were able to get anything for him, though only 1 million of his 2013 salary is guaranteed. I don’t know how they got the mid round pick they reportedly received.

Trade: A

Trade for Lions: I don’t get this. I get that they’re taking a chance on Thomas bouncing back with a real quarterback, but I don’t understand giving up a mid round pick and taking on his salary. Besides, it’s not like they really need another wide receiver with Calvin Johnson, Titus Young, and Ryan Broyles.

Grade: D

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)

So apparently Chad Henne is worse than Blaine Gabbert? I didn’t even know that was possible. Before he got hurt, Gabbert looked serviceable against Oakland’s terrible secondary last week, completing 8 of 12 for 110 yards and a touchdown. However, then Henne came in and went 9 of 20 for 71 yards as the Jaguars blew a lead in Oakland. Gabbert is back this week, so the Jaguars will probably only lose by 25 in Green Bay instead of 30.

The bad news for the Jaguars injury wise is that Maurice Jones-Drew is out at least this week and possibly many more as he’s being described as out indefinitely. He is their best player by far. Last year, he accounted for 47.7% of their yards from scrimmage, most of any non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974. This year, he was at 39.9% heading into last week’s game. As good as Rashad Jennings looked in the preseason, he managed just 44 yards on 21 carries last week against an Oakland run defense that was allowing 4.4 YPC coming in, which would have been 23rd in the league this week. They now rank 8th because of Jennings’ terrible game.

This line is huge (biggest one all year), but we might actually be getting line value with the Packers. The yards per play method of calculating line value suggests this line should be Green Bay -15.5, while rate of sustaining drives differential suggests it should be -17. And Green Bay doesn’t even rank among the elite in the league in those stats, ranking 11th in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential. The Jaguars are just so horrible.

The Jaguars’ yards per play differential is -1.6. No one else is worse than -1.1. Their rate of sustaining drives differential is -16.8%. No one else is worse than -11.2%. Even against Oakland in their near win, they had half as many first downs as Oakland and managed a measly 3.4 yards per play to Oakland’s 4.7. With Maurice Jones-Drew out, they don’t stand much chance of keeping this one close unless Green Bay comes out asleep.

I hate laying more than a touchdown with a team and I certainly hate laying more than two touchdowns with a team, but Green Bay is the right side this week. This line is completely legitimate and Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind right now, completing 54 of 67 for 680 yards, 9 touchdowns, and no interceptions in his last 2 games. The Packers aren’t as good as they were last year because their offensive line and running game isn’t as good and their defense isn’t forcing as many turnovers. They’re also dealing with injuries as Greg Jennings is still out and Jordy Nelson may join him. Meanwhile, defensively, starters Nick Perry, Sam Shields, and Charles Woodson are out this week, though BJ Raji is expected to return.

In spite of that, it’s once again become reckless to bet against Aaron Rodgers. As a starter, Rodgers is 44-29 ATS, including 36-22 ATS since the start of the 2009 season. As home favorites of 10 or more, he’s 8-3 ATS. He’s playing angry right now and I don’t expect this team to be asleep. I instead expect them to come out firing on all cylinders and get a blowout win here at home over by far the league’s worst team missing its best player. Remember, at 4-3 in the loaded NFC, every game counts so they don’t have time to take a game off. Plus, the loaded NFC is 17-11 ATS against the AFC this year.

Plus, the favorite/dog disparity is eventually going to close. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year and neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games above .500 over the course of a whole season in at least a decade. It’s not a big play on the Packers because I hate laying this many points, but I like them. On top of that, they’re also my survivor pick of the week because I’ve somehow managed to not use them at all this year. I’d be stunned if they lost. Only 4 teams have ever lost as 15 point favorites and none since 1995.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean: GB 10 JAX 5

Final update: No change.

Green Bay Packers 38 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI)

Pick against spread: Green Bay -15 (-110) 1 unit

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Jacksonville Jaguars Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-5

Jacksonville is by far the worst team in the league despite their near win in Oakland and it’s not even close. Their yards per play differential is -1.6. No one else is worse than -1.1. Their rate of sustaining drives differential is -16.8%. No one else is worse than -11.2%. Even against Oakland in their near win, they had half as many first downs as Oakland and managed a measly 3.4 yards per play to Oakland’s 4.7. Chad Henne somehow seems to actually be worse than Blaine Gabbert and I didn’t even think that was possible. Gabbert is expected to play this week against Green Bay, which means they’ll lose by only 25 instead of 30.

Also bad news, Maurice Jones-Drew is out indefinitely. He is their best player by far. Last year, he accounted for 47.7% of their yards from scrimmage, most since 1974. This year, he was at 39.9% heading into last week’s game. As good as Rashad Jennings looked in the preseason, he managed just 44 yards on 21 carries last week against an Oakland run defense that was allowing 4.4 YPC coming in, which would have been 23rd in the league this week. They now rank 8th because of Jennings’ terrible game.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Allowed 1 sack on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps

RG Uche Nwaneri: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 5 attempts

MLB Paul Posluszny: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 11 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections

SS Dawan Landry: 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections

FS Chris Prosinski: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE Austin Lane: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

QB Chad Henne: 9 of 20 for 71 yards, 1 drop, 1 batted pass, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 53.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 25 drop backs (3 sacks, 0 of 5, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)

WR Cecil Shorts: Caught 4 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 2 penalties

WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 4 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Rashean Mathis: Allowed 2 catches for 64 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, no tackles

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Raiders

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)

In the write up for Colts/Browns, I mentioned Bill Simmons’ theory from his picks column this week that because dogs are doing so well this year (57-32 ATS), the odds makers would start shrinking the spreads to compensate so the general public won’t catch on and just starting betting all dogs. He used that as part of his argument to pick Buffalo -3 over Tennessee and I used as part of my argument to pick Indianapolis -2 over Cleveland (I don’t think Buffalo and Tennessee are as unevenly matched as he thinks as they both have almost actually the same numbers in yards per play and rate of sustaining drives differential).

However, one thing we both agree on is that the spread has not been shrunk on this game. He took them at +4.5 and I would have too. Now, the spread has even jumped to +6. Given the rate dogs have been covering this year, there’s no way Oakland should be laying more than 3 at home. The reason behind this line not being shrunken is that the public seems to be overrating Oakland. After all, they won 8 games last year, beat Pittsburgh and almost beat Atlanta.

Even with a non-shrunken spread, there’s still a heavy public lean on Oakland. The odds makers have moved this line all the way up to 6 and still there’s heavy public action on Oakland. I love to fade heavy public leans because the public always ends up losing money. I’m not worried about the “fishy” line movement because it’s in the same direction of the line action and it’s also injury related. Daryl Smith, Dwight Lowery, and Laurent Robinson have all been ruled out when all looked like they could play earlier this week. Lowery and Robinson aren’t significant enough players for their absence to factor into this one and Smith has been out all year.

The argument behind Oakland being overrated is this: They won 8 games last year, but only had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins. They also lost several key players in the offseason, including top cornerback Stanford Routt and Kamerion Wimbley. I called them overrated before the season and they have still managed to remain overrated despite a 1-4 record because of some “impressive performances.”

Yes, they beat Pittsburgh at home in Oakland, but so did Tennessee. Pittsburgh is just a horrific road team outside of the division. Last year, they almost lost to Curtis Painter and Tyler Palko on the road. The Atlanta game, meanwhile, can probably just be chalked up to Atlanta having a bad game or to the Falcons not being as good as their record. Remember, they beat Carolina by just 2 at home a couple weeks ago and they’re not any good either. Oakland has also lost in big blowout losses in Miami and Denver. They don’t deserve to be laying this many points over anyone, even the Jaguars, who are probably the league’s worst team.

The two measures of “real” line I normally use actually do say this line is reasonable or even a little small. The yards per play method says this line should be Oakland -12.5 and the rate of sustaining drives method says it should be -8. However, we need to add a human element to those formulas and realize they’re complete bullshit in this game. Jacksonville ranking by far dead last in both is skewing things. The yards per play method actually suggests everyone in the league would be at least 6.5 point favorites over Jacksonville, while the rate of sustaining drives method says everyone in the league would be at least 5.5 point favorites.

There’s actually a trend that says that Oakland doesn’t deserve to be laying this many points, even against an opponent as atrocious as Jacksonville. Teams that finished 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS since 2002. I know Jacksonville is atrocious, but I’d be willing to bet most of those teams that covered in those situations as 6+ dogs were as well. You kind of have to be to be dogs this big against a bad team. It’s unfortunate I don’t get to use this trend often (it also was in play 4 times last year), but I love using it when I can and with Oakland at 1-4 now, I think it’s safe to say I can.

Oakland is also in a bad spot as favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs. Oakland lost in Atlanta last week and will go to Kansas City next week. Teams are 54-78 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 17-30 ATS when their opponent in the following week is divisional, which Kansas City obviously is. Jacksonville is horrible, but there are cases where every team is bettable. Oakland is unbettable in this spot and I do like Jacksonville a great deal. 23-64 ATS is hard to ignore. This is one of 3 co-picks of the week. I’m 8-2 on picks of the week and co-picks of the week this year.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean: JAC 12 OAK 7

Final update: LV Hilton line was at 4.5. I love Jacksonville at +6 because of the 6 and 6 rule. This is still a co-pick of the week.

Oakland Raiders 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6 (-110) 4 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 31 (-1)

Record: 1-4

I know they have a win and the Browns don’t, but this is the worst team in the NFL. The Browns have at least been competitive in all of their games. The Jaguars didn’t even look impressive in their lone win over the Colts, needing a late 80 yard touchdown pass to win. They’re tied for the league worst in yards per play differential, while Cleveland ranks 23rd. They have scored 35 points fewer than the Browns, while allowing only 1 fewer, and have the league’s 2nd worst points differential, only ahead of Tennessee, who has played a much tougher schedule. Since looking serviceable in the opener, Blaine Gabbert has completed 57 of 107 (53.3%) for 536 yards (5.0 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, which is comparably bad to his rookie numbers. Head Coach Mike Mularkey insists he’s not regressing. He’s right. He’s always sucked.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

FS Dwight Lowery: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LE Austen Lane: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

RB Maurice Jones-Drew: Rushed for 56 yards (37 after contact) on 12 carries, caught 1 pass for 3 yards on 3 attempts, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Mike Thomas: Caught 4 passes for 15 yards on 7 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Derek Cox: Allowed 6 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

LOLB Russell Allen: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

DT Tyson Alualu: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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