Jaguars

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Jaguars

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

Blaine Gabbert doesn’t seem noticeably improved over last year. Since a solid showing in the opener, he’s 40 of 74 for 394 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He’s protecting the ball and not turning it over, but this offense simply has no explosion to it unless Maurice Jones-Drew is breaking off a bunch of big runs. Plus, turnovers are inconsistent on a week to week basis, so this offense, which ranks dead last in scoring, could get worse in the future. A tough matchup against Chicago is a very possible place for that to start.

Gabbert’s last 3 games have been especially poor. Against Houston, he had as many attempts as yards midway through the 3rd quarter and finished 7-19 for 53 yards. In a win in Indianapolis, he was 9 of 20 for 75 yards, up until an 80 yard touchdown to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work. Shorts and a huge day by Maurice Jones-Drew are the two reasons they won that game against the lowly Colts. Not Gabbert.

Last week, Cincinnati was missing their top 4 cornerbacks with injuries and using Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and Chris Crocker at cornerback. They stacked the box to stop MJD and Gabbert still went just 23 of 34 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He had all of his offensive linemen healthy in that one, so there was no excuse.

He’s absolutely horrible and the Jaguars might be the worst team in the league. Cleveland may be 0-4, but they’ve been competitive in all 4 games, while Jacksonville didn’t even look that impressive in their win. It’s going to be hard to pick them as anything less than touchdown underdogs going forward. Daryl Smith, their best defensive player arguably, is once again out for this one.

Meanwhile, Chicago has been exactly average this season, if you believe their yards per play differential. In spite of that, this line, -5, is equal to the “real” line, because of how poor Jacksonville has been in that area, ranking 31st, so there’s no line value with Jacksonville. If you believe Chicago is truly an average team, then there’s no line value with Chicago either, but I would argue they aren’t. You do need to add a human element to any calculation of any “real” line.

With the exception of their horrific showing in Green Bay week 2, they have won the yards per play battle in 3 of their 4 games. That week 2 performance is really skewing things and I think that’s not indicative of this team’s level of ability. Think about it, at least one team has completely shit the bed like that in all 4 Thursday Night games, even good teams. Arizona lost by 14 to St. Louis this week, despite coming in at 4-0. Carolina got destroyed by the Giants, even though they were favored. Baltimore, meanwhile, barely defeated Cleveland at home.

3 days is not enough time to prepare, which is why Thursday Night games always suck (blame Roger Goodell, as always), and I don’t really blame the Bears for being that unprepared, so I kind of disregard what happened in that game for Chicago. Aside from that, this team is a well above average team that has won every game by at least 16 points, including an impressive showing in Dallas last Monday. Jay Cutler, as much criticism as he takes, is 17-8 in the regular season with the Bears over the last 2 years. They’re also getting Matt Forte back closer to 100%, if not 100% this week, after he was limited on Monday Night, so I do think there’s line value with Chicago when you add a human element to the formulaic analysis.

Speaking of that win in Dallas on Monday Night, teams are 47-32 ATS since 2002 off a MNF win over 14 or more. That trend is even more powerful when the win was by 21 or more, going 28-11 ATS. I know the Bears didn’t win by 21, but they were leading by 24 until a late garbage time drive by the Cowboys when they had already given up and put in Kyle Orton. The logic is that teams that get a blowout victory on MNF typically carry that into the next week and for all intents and purposes Chicago DID blow out Dallas.

The public is all over the Bears, but I’m still going to take them in this one. Normally I love fading the public, especially on big leans, and this is the biggest public lean of the week, but I like the Bears enough to take them anyway coming off a huge MNF performance. I think we’re getting line value with them and it’s really, really tough to take the Jaguars, even at home, as anything more than touchdown underdogs. We don’t have touchdown protection with the Jaguars, so it’s a small play on the Bears.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers)

Sharps lean: JAX 11 CHI 8

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still expect a Chicago blowout. Jacksonville is terrible.

Chicago Bears 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Chicago -5 (-110) 2 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 30 (-1)

Record: 1-3

I almost put them last even though they had a win because they really haven’t looked good in any week, while Cleveland has hung with some playoff teams. They rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential. Blaine Gabbert doesn’t seem noticeably improved over last year. Since a solid showing in the opener, he’s 40 of 74 for 394 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He’s protecting the ball, but this offense simply has no explosion to it unless Maurice Jones-Drew is breaking off a bunch of big runs.

His last 3 games have been especially poor. Against Houston, he had as many attempts as yards midway through the 3rd quarter and finished 7-19 for 53 yards. In a win in Indianapolis, he was 9 of 20 for 75 yards, up until an 80 yard touchdown to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work. Shorts and a huge day by Maurice Jones-Drew are the two reasons they won that game against the lowly Colts. Not Gabbert. Last week, Cincinnati was missing their top 4 cornerbacks with injuries and using Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and Chris Crocker at cornerback. They stacked the box to stop MJD and Gabbert still went just 23 of 34 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. If this team ends up with a top-3 pick, GM Gene Smith could easily be fired and the Jaguars could look to take either Geno Smith or Matt Barkley to replace Gabbert.

Studs

CB Derek Cox: Allowed 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 tackles, 1 assist

LE Jeremy Mincey: 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

MLB Paul Posluszny: 10 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, was not thrown on

Duds

LG Eben Britton: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 22 pass block snaps

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

C Brad Meester: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 6 attempts

WR Cecil Shorts: Caught 1 pass for 8 yards on 5 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LOLB Russell Allen: Allowed 6 catches for 48 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Rashean Mathis: Allowed 5 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

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Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Andy Dalton has done a great job of beating up on bad defenses in the last couple of weeks, completing 43 of 58 for 646 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against Washington and Cleveland. He did that last year as well as he was 9-0 against non-playoff teams, but assuming Washington and Cleveland miss the playoffs and Baltimore makes it, he has yet to beat a single playoff team in his career (0-9). It should be a concern for the Bengals.

However, it shouldn’t be much of a concern this week because Jacksonville isn’t a playoff team either. Their defense isn’t very good and while it was better last week with their secondary healthier, they are still missing Daryl Smith, arguably their best defensive player. The other candidate for their best defensive player is Jeremy Mincey, at least he’s supposed to be. He’s managed just 7 total quarterback pressures on 112 pass rush snaps and has yet to get a sack. He’s a one year wonder because he came out of nowhere last year, so it’s a concern. Andy Dalton and company should have no problem moving the ball against them.

The other concern for the Bengals is their defense. They’ve been torched by every quarterback they’ve faced, even Brandon Weeden, and they rank tied for 30th allowing 34.0 points per game. They also rank 30th in yards per play allowed. While the Jaguars are getting healthier defensively, the Bengals aren’t really. They’ve gotten top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap back and cornerback Jason Allen returned last week too, but he reinjured himself and is unlikely to play in this one.

They’ve also lost starting linebacker Thomas Howard for the season, they’re still without 1st round pick Dre Kirkpatrick, and #1 cornerback Leon Hall is unlikely to play. Hall didn’t play last week either. He’s dealing with leg problems on the same side that he tore his Achilles just 10 months ago. It’s definitely possible he came back too soon. Without Allen, Hall, and Kirkpatrick, the Bengals will rely on a trio of Nate Clements, Terence Newman, and Adam Jones at cornerback, which would have been fine if this was 2006, but it’s not. They don’t have good safeties either so Blaine Gabbert should be able to move the ball on this 28th ranked pass defense.

The one positive defensively for the Bengals last week was their pass rush. Carlos Dunlap returned and he and Michael Johnson combined for 14 total pressures, including 4 sacks. Dunlap is a great pass rusher, but that game by Johnson was inconsistent with what he normally does so it’s very likely that will be by far the best game of his season. It definitely helped that they were facing Washington’s offensive line, which struggles to begin with and then lost stud left tackle Trent Williams early in the game. The Jaguars’ offensive line ranks dead last in pass block efficiency, but they return 2 starters, left guard Eben Britton and right tackle Cameron Bradfield, from injury in this one, which should help. If Gabbert can get time, he should be able to move the ball on this pathetic secondary. He’ll also be aided by what should be a strong performance from Maurice Jones-Drew because the Bengals rank dead last against the run.

If you’re reading the above analysis and thinking, these two teams aren’t that unevenly matched, you’re definitely on to something. The difference between Cincinnati’s and Jacksonville’s yards per play differential is .6. An old gambling formula tells you to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. That suggests that this line should be -1 in favor of the Bengals, instead of -2.5, and that’s not even taking into account the fact that these two teams are going in opposite directions injury wise, so there’s a little bit of line value with the host here.

This was a tough one. On one hand, Andy Dalton has never lost to a non-playoff team in his career going 11-0 if you assume Washington and Cleveland miss the playoffs. Jacksonville is in that bunch. On the other hand, their defense is a mess and they’ve won their last 2 games by just 7 points apiece, including a home contest against the lowly Browns. There’s some line value with the host and the public, by the way, is pounding the Bengals. The public is 4-12 on heavy leans this year and Cincinnati +2.5 here is one of the heaviest leans I’ve seen all year. It has all the making of a trap line.

The general public is sitting at home thinking, “Cincinnati +2.5? All they need to do is beat the Jaguars by 3? Free money.” When in reality, Cincinnati’s defense is so bad that they can lose to anyone at any time, especially on the road. Home dogs are also 13-6 ATS this year and 12-7 SU, though that might have had something to do with the replacement refs. If we had replacement refs in this one, it would be a significant bet, but instead, it’s a smaller bet just to fade the public on a heavy lean. It’s also worth noting the Bengals are just 5-13 ATS as favorites since 2007.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CIN 8 JAC 11

Update: Nate Clements is also expected out for the Bengals leaving them with Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and recently called up from the practice squad Chris Lewis-Harris. Also, I’m glad to see the sharps like Jacksonville as well. I’m not adding any more units because Jacksonville sucks, but I’m feeling more confident now.

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 1-2

The Jaguars beat the Colts in Indianapolis, but you have to be concerned with how Blaine Gabbert did against a banged up Colts defense that wasn’t very good to begin with. Gabbert went 10 of 21 for 155 yards and a touchdown with 80 of those yards coming on one play to Cecil Shorts where the receiver did most of the work. He only won because of that aforementioned play and Maurice Jones-Drew looking vintage, rushing for 177 yards and a score on 28 carries. The Jaguars rank 30th in the league in yards per play differential and I feel that as they get healthier, in the long run, the Colts are going to be the slighter better team because of their quarterback play. The Jaguars are one of 15 teams with a record of 1-2. They’ll be in that chunk of currently 1-2 teams that ends up with a horrible record.

Studs

RB Maurice Jones-Drew: Rushed for 177 yards (71 after contact) and a touchdown on 28 carries, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 16 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Paul Posluszny: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 52 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection

LOLB Russell Allen: 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 33 yards on 4 attempts, 1 penalty

FS Dwight Lowery: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

P Bryan Anger: 6 punts for 321 yards, 1 inside 20, 4 returns for 29 yards, 45.3 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Guy Whimper: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 26 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempts

WR Justin Blackmon: 1 catch for 7 yards on 5 targets on 24 pass plays, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LE Jeremy Mincey: 1 quarterback hurry on 51 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Jaguars to be without Cameron Bradfield, Eben Britton, and Daryl Smith again, Derek Cox to be limited

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

The Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the league over the first 2 games of the season. Blaine Gabbert looked functional against a weak defense in Minnesota week 1, leading them to a near win. completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

Against Houston, however, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4. He won’t face a defense as good as Houston’s every week, but he won’t face one as bad as Minnesota’s every week either. Overall, the Jaguars are 0-2 and rank 30th in yards per play differential.

Part of the problem has been injuries, but don’t expect them to be much healthier this week. The Jaguars will once again be without two starters on their offensive line, right tackle Cameron Bradfield and left guard Eben Britton, and defensively, top linebacker Daryl Smith is once again out. #1 cornerback Derek Cox is expected to play, but he will be limited and only see the field on passing downs. Injuries have turned this defense from respectable to horrible. Offensively, Blaine Gabbert cannot be trusted, especially behind a banged up offensive front and Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 47.7% of their offensive yards last year, most by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974, is not the same as last year. Expect the Colts to win this week because at least they have one redeeming quality, the quarterback position.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. However, one thing remains the same. I still feel the Colts are underrated.

One of the reasons they’ve remained underrated and because they’ve played underrated teams. I feel the Bears and Vikings are both underrated teams right now. The Colts, meanwhile, don’t have a ton of talent of anything, but Andrew Luck is the real deal.  After a rough opener against a strong Chicago defense, Luck was incredibly impressive in his 2nd start, passing for 224 yards on 20 of 31, despite minimal help from his supporting cast. Under pressure on 15 of 37 drop backs, he took just 2 sacks, scrambled 4 times for 21 yards, and completed 6 of 9 for a touchdown and of the 3 incompletions, 1 was dropped, and on 1 he was hit as he threw. In fact, if you take non-targets out of the equation and add in drops (accuracy percentage), he would have been 24 of 29. Expect this team to at least win the 6 games Cam Newton did last year, with a 7 or 8 win season being more likely.

Given that, it’s pretty weird that the odds makers think that the Colts and Jaguars are equal (home field advantage is 3 points). The Jaguars figure to be one of the worst teams in the league. Remember when Blaine Gabbert looked like a functional quarterback? That was fun. Against Houston, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4.

Indianapolis doesn’t have nearly the defense that Houston does, but Gabbert still cannot be trusted as a functional quarterback going forward, especially behind an offensive line that could be missing two starters once again. They’ve had the league’s 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pass blocking efficiency. The one thing that has remained the same over their first 2 games is their horrible defensive play. Starting cornerback Derek Cox is expected back, but that won’t solve all of their problems. Stud linebacker Daryl Smith will also miss again this week. Andrew Luck and company shouldn’t have much problem moving the ball again this week. The Jaguars rank 30th in the league in yards per play differential.

I still feel like there’s a lot of line value with the Colts. They’re not the same crappy team they were last year. Andrew Luck is the real deal and they’re also much better coached. The Jaguars, meanwhile, might be even worse than they were last year because the defense is no longer respectable and because Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 47.7% of their offensive yards last year, most by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974, isn’t the same as last year. If Blaine Gabbert can be respectable against a bad defense again like he did in the opener, they could keep this one close, but I don’t really trust him to do that.

Plus, the Colts are trying to avenge a divisional loss of 10 points or fewer, a situation teams are 59-38 ATS in since 2010. The Colts are also going into a bye , Teams in general tend to cover heading into a bye, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into one, going 151-126 ATS since 2002. On top of that, week 1 rookie starting quarterbacks are 8-1 ATS and SU week 3 since 2008.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3 (-110) 3 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 28 (-2)

Record: 0-2

Remember when Blaine Gabbert looked like a functional quarterback? That was fun. Against Houston, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4. He won’t face a defense as good as Houston’s every week, but he won’t face one as bad as Minnesota’s every week either. He’s got 14 games to prove he’s the future of the team, otherwise, the people who brought him in, especially his biggest backer GM Gene Smith, could be fired, leaving Gabbert’s future with the team murky at best.

Studs

FS Dwight Lowery: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles

P Bryan Anger: 9 punts for 470 yards, 4 of 9 inside the 20, 5 returns for 77 yards, 43.7 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Blaine Gabbert: 7 of 19 for 53 yards and 1 touchdown, 2 batted passes, 2 drops, 59.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs (1 scramble, 3 sacks, 1 for 4 and a touchdown)

RT Guy Whimper: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -4 yards on 1 attempt

LG Herbert Taylor: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 28 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

RG Uche Nwanari: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 28 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Justin Blackmon: Did not catch a pass on 3 targets on 24 pass snaps

TE Marcedes Lewis: Did not catch a pass on 1 target on 22 pass snaps

ROLB Kyle Bosworth: 2 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 completions for 47 yards on 5 attempts

DT Tyson Alualu: Did not record a pressure on 26 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

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Jaguars likely to be without 4 starters this week, Rashad Jennings out as well

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

The Jaguars had a nice little opener in a near road win over the Minnesota Vikings Blaine Gabbert looked serviceable, completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

However, they may find things much tougher this week as they head home to face the Houston Texans, who might be the most complete team in the NFL. Making life even harder is the fact that they may be without 4 starters with injury. Starting right tackle Cameron Bradfield left the Vikings’ game with an injury and replacement Guy Whimper, who really struggled last season as a starter, predictably got destroyed, surrendered 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, while committing 2 penalties.

Starting left guard Eben Britton is also unlikely to go, which would leave undrafted free agent Mike Brewster to start at left guard. Gabbert will be under pressure all night and if he reverts to his old habits, he could really struggle, especially against Houston’s secondary. Even if he continues to show poise in the pocket, the Jaguars will probably still have trouble moving the ball against a tough Houston defense.

The Jaguars also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Daryl Smith and Derek Cox did not suit up for the opener and might not play again this week. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missed 1 game and maybe more. In the opener, replacements Aaron Ross and Kyle Bosworth predictably struggled. If the Jaguars couldn’t stop the Vikings, they’re going to have a lot of trouble stopping the Texans.

Also expected to miss this game is Rashad Jennings. Jennings is not a starter, so he’s not as important to their chances of winning on Sunday, but it’s an important note for fantasy football players. Maurice Jones-Drew will carry the load completely in his 2nd game back and the Jaguars have said he’s not an a pitch count, so expect him to get most, if not all of the carries, as primary backup Montell Owens has just 14 career carries. Still, don’t get too excited about him in fantasy leagues, as Houston has a tough run defense and MJD doesn’t seem to have his legs back under him yet. Start him, but don’t count on him to carry your team. Likewise, the Jaguars can’t count on him to carry their team like they did last year.

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans

Houston Texans (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

Blaine Gabbert looked serviceable in the opener against the Vikings, completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

Houston this week, unfortunately, has both a great pass rush and a great secondary, so this will be a major test for the 2nd year quarterback. He won’t get a lot of help from his offensive line. Minnesota’s got a great pass rush, but part of the reason why Gabbert was under pressure so much was the play of his offensive line, specifically right tackle. Cameron Bradfield got the start, but left with an ankle injury, allowing Guy Whimper, who was awful last year as a starter, to come in. He was awful, making Brian Robison look like a Pro Bowl defensive end.

Bradfield wasn’t much better before he got hurt and Robison pressured Gabbert on 9 throws. Whoever starts there this week will have a tough time trying to contain the Texans’ pass rush, especially if it’s Whimper, which it looks like it will be. Also likely to miss this week’s game with injury is left guard Eben Britton. Britton moved from right tackle to left guard when Will Rackley got hurt and if he can’t go, it’ll be up to either undrafted rookie Mike Brewster or Troy Kropog, recently signed, to start at left guard. Either way, it’s a problem area. Gabbert will be under pressure all night and if he reverts to his old habits, he could really struggle, especially against Houston’s secondary. Even if he continues to show poise in the pocket, the Jaguars will probably still have trouble moving the ball against a tough Houston defense.

The Jaguars also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Daryl Smith and Derek Cox did not suit up for the opener and might not play again this week. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missed 1 game and maybe more. In the opener, replacements Aaron Ross and Kyle Bosworth predictably struggled. If the Jaguars couldn’t stop the Vikings, they’re going to have a lot of trouble stopping the Texans.

This matchup seems pretty straight forward. Jacksonville had a nice little game in an eventual losing effort to a mediocre Vikings team, but they’re simply too overmatched to beat or even hang with the Texans, especially being as banged up as they are now. The Texans might be the most complete team in the league.  It’s not a very big bet though because I hate betting on road favorites of 7+. Road favorites of 7+ are 77-98 ATS since 2002, which is not quite significant enough to deter me from betting on the Texans in what should be a blow out game, but it is significant enough to prevent me from making this a big bet.

Weird things can happen in games between significantly superior teams and significantly inferior teams when the significantly inferior team is at home. Just think back to the Philadelphia at Cleveland game last week. Same situation and for the same reason I made it a small bet on Philadelphia, even though I felt it should be a blowout. It wasn’t and I wasn’t hurt too much.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Houston Texans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Houston -7.5 (-105) 1 unit

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+4)

Record: 0-1

Jacksonville moves up despite the loss because Blaine Gabbert showed some signs of life in his 2nd season debut, completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I still didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs). Let’s see him face a real secondary first, but if he can continue to at least be serviceable, the Jaguars will continue to move up this list.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures allowed on 46 pass block plays, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

C Brad Meester: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures allowed on 46 pass block plays, run blocked for 27 yards on 5 attempts

WR Cecil Shorts: 4 catches for 74 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets, 2.3 YAC per catch on 13 pass plays

TE Marcedes Lewis: 5 catches for 54 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets, 7.8 YAC per catch on 22 pass plays, run blocked for 35 yards on 4 attempts

FS Dwight Lowery: 6 solo tackles, 2 stops on 28 run snaps, allowed 2 completions for 19 yards on 4 attempts

Duds

RG Uche Nwanari: Allowed 3 quarterback pressures on 45 pass block plays, run blocked for 14 yards on 7 attempts

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback pressures on 12 pass block plays, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 carry

RT Guy Whimper: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback pressures on 35 pass block plays, 2 penalties

WR Mike Thomas: Did not catch a pass on 1 target and 30 pass plays, 1 drop

WR Justin Blackmon: 3 catches for 24 yards on 5 targets, 1.0 YAC per catch on 45 pass plays, 1 penalty

RE Andre Branch: 0 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 0 quarterback pressures on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops on 24 run snaps

CB Aaron Ross: Allowed 6 catches for 79 yards on 7 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle on 28 run snaps

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 4 catches for 69 yards on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle on 28 run snaps

MLB Paul Posluszny: 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles, 2 stops, on 28 run snaps, allowed 3 catches for 35 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Kevin Rutland: Allowed 2 completions for 48 yards on 2 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle, 1 assist on 4 run snaps

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