Jets

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8)

This feels like a classic Steeler let down game. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers are just 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-15 ATS off of a win, 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more, and 2-12 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more off a loss. So, as weird as this sounds, I actually really like the Jets this week. As bad as they’ve been this season, everyone covers the spread every once in a while. Teams are 61-39 ATS since 1989 on an 8+ game losing streak, including 55-32 ATS as underdogs and 25-16 ATS as home underdogs. They could easily catch the Steelers off guard, as many teams do as non-divisional home underdogs against them. It doesn’t help the Steelers that their already thin defense will be without Ryan Shazier and Troy Polamalu this week.

This line has moved from 5.5 and 6 at opening to 4.5 and in some places 4. On one hand, I wish I got this line earlier because Jets +6 would have been such a great bet. On the other hand, that line movement suggests the sharps are on the Jets, as the public is all over the Steelers, which gives me more confidence in the Jets, even with the line moving down. The Steelers are 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.23% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 3.28%. On the other hand, the Jets are 27th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.20% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of -3.98%. That means this line should be about 4.5, even before you take the aforementioned trends into account. If you can still get this at anything higher than 4, the Jets are absolutely the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Jets 23

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)

This game has had the biggest line movement from last week to this week, as the Chiefs were just 5 point favorites in the early line last week, as opposed to 10 point favorites now. The reason for that is obvious as the Jets were just blown out at home 43-23 by the Bills, a game in which Geno Smith completed 2 passes, threw 3 interceptions, and was benched for Michael Vick. I usually like fading significant line movements as there’s really no reason for a line to move that much with the exception of injury to a strong starting quarterback.

Easily the biggest reason for the loss was the Jets -6 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. Even crazier, teams with a turnover margin of -6 or more have an average turnover margin of +0.3 the following week. As a result, those teams are 28-21 ATS the following week and that doesn’t even tell the whole story. Those 28 teams that cover the spread do so by an average of 15.39 points per game, as opposed to 7.71 points per game for the 21 teams that fail to cover the spread. Underdogs who previously lost the turnover margin by 6 or more are 20-13 ATS and 16-18 straight up, despite by underdogs. The Jets actually won the chain game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers.

That being said, I still think we’re getting line value with the Chiefs, as they’re an underrated team. The fact that they were just 5 point favorites over the Jets last week is absurd and even with the significant line movement, they should still be the right side. The Chiefs rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.63% rate, as opposed to 70.35% for their opponents, a differential of 7.27%. That might sound absurd considering they’re just 4-3, but they have a +48 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They blew out a decent Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). Last week they blew out the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank just 25th in rate of moving the chains, despite winning the chain game last week. They move the chains at a 68.29% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents, a differential of -3.45%. The public does know how bad they are, but they haven’t really caught on to how good the Chiefs are, so we’re getting value with them. They’re also in a good spot as they have another easy game on deck, going to Buffalo next week. Teams are 79-51 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, as those teams have no real distractions on deck.

Meanwhile, the Jets host Pittsburgh next week, a game in which they will almost definitely be 3+ point home underdogs. Teams are 53-81 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, including 26-56 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation.

I’m not that confident in Kansas City as I hate going with significant line movement, especially when doing so means being on the same side as the public. The Jets are also in a good spot on a 7 game losing streak as underdogs are 51-32 ATS since 2002 on a 7+ game losing streak, which makes sense as teams tend to be embarrassed, undervalued, and overlooked in that situation. The Jets aren’t undervalued, but they could definitely be embarrassed and/or overlooked. However, the Chiefs should still be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (4-3) at New York Jets (1-6)

This line shifted from even last week to now the Jets being favored by a field goal. The primary reason for that has to be the Percy Harvin trade, as people don’t seem to realize that Harvin wasn’t doing much in Seattle this season and that he probably doesn’t know the entire Jets playbook yet or have chemistry developed with quarterback Geno Smith. It’s disappointing that this line shifted so much as it robbed us of an opportunity to fade a Bills team that isn’t as good as their record.

The Bills are somehow 4-3, though with 3 last second wins by a combined 5 points. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank just 24th, moving the chains at a 65.22% rate, as opposed to 68.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.23%. That being said, we’re actually now getting line value with the Bills as this line suggests these two teams are even, while in reality the Bills have played better this season. The Jets rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 68.42% rate, as opposed to 72.55% for their opponents, a differential of -4.13%. I have no confidence in the Bills though, especially since they’re a public underdog, but they’re my pick here as I’m going with fading line movement and picking the better team over fading the public.

New York Jets 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks trade WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets

stevenlourie Jets, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Trade for Seahawks: A lot of people are saying this move was a mistake for the Seahawks because trading him now means they’re going to end up paying him 18.3 million for 27 catches and 238 snaps played (including post-season). That’s about 678K per catch and about 64.6K per snap played. The Seahawks gave up a first and third round pick for Harvin about 19 months ago, in addition to the money they paid him, and now they’re getting just a mid-rounder back.

However, that doesn’t mean this move was a mistake. The mistake was giving him all that for him in the first place, as I said it was back in March of 2013 when the trade happened. Trading Harvin away yesterday was actually a good move. They get out of the remaining 7.2 million dollars Harvin was owed in game checks this season. They get rid of a guy who was not only underperforming, but was reportedly a huge problem team chemistry wise. They also get some sort of compensation for a guy that was undoubtedly going to be cut after the season, owed a non-guaranteed 10.5 million in 2015.

On top of that, they free up cap space for next off-season, whereas cutting him this off-season would have freed up that space for the following off-season. That extra cap space is going to be valuable when it comes time to extend Russell Wilson this off-season. Trading for Harvin is spilled ink on an otherwise very impressive record by Seahawks GM John Schneider, but being willing to admit their mistake before it was too late is a good move on the part of Schneider and the rest of the Seahawks’ front office.

Grade: A

Trade for Jets: This trade is more head-scratching for the Jets. It’s very possible that Harvin just needed a change of scenery and he instantly becomes the 2nd best wide receiver on the Jets, at the very least. He has experience playing with poor quarterbacks in the past and still being successful as the routes he runs are usually high completion percentage short routes which he takes for yards after the catch. However, we’re still talking about a guy who has been traded twice in less than 20 months and both times off-the-field type things played some sort of role. He still has never had a 1000 yard season and he still has a very checkered injury history.

On top of that, the Jets are hardly in win now mode at 1-6. Trading a mid-rounder for Harvin, paying him 7.4 million in game checks to help your team maybe go 4-12 instead of 3-13 and then cutting him after the season doesn’t really make any sense, but neither does paying him the 10.5 non-guaranteed he’s owed in 2015. Perhaps some sort of restructured contract is in Harvin’s future this off-season, but this move still would have made way more sense for a team like New England that’s in win now mode and can afford to put all its eggs into one basket than it does for a team like the Jets whose season is lost, whose future is cloudy, and who needs all the draft picks they can get.

Grade: C

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-5) at New England Patriots (4-2)

The Jets are as bad as I expected them to be this season and their record is as bad as they’ve been over the past two seasons. The Jets 8-8 record in 2013 was a farce as the Jets had a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a point differential of -97. They moved the chains at a mere 65.59% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of -4.05% that ranked 25th in the NFL. This season, they are right around there, moving the chains at a 66.08% rate, as opposed to 72.47% for their opponents, a differential of -6.39% that ranks 28th.

I’m not taking the Jets here, especially on the road where they have been even worse over the past 2 seasons. Since the start of last season, the Jets are 7-5 at home, getting outscored by an average of 1.58 points per game. Comparably, they are 2-8 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 14.00 points per game. Meanwhile, the Patriots have won every season home game over that time period by an average of 12.00 points per game, while going 8-3 ATS.

However, we’re not really getting any line value with the Patriots as 10 point favorites, as bad as the Jets are. The Patriots have been moving the chains at a 71.58% rate, as opposed to 70.81% for their opponents, a differential of 0.77% that ranks 14th in the NFL and suggests they should be around 10 point favorites here. Sure they’ve been a lot better over the past two weeks, but how they played before that can’t be overlooked. Also working against the Patriots case is the fact that they are 8-15 ATS since 2010 as favorites of 8 or more. I’m still laying the points, but I’m not confident at all.

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at New York Jets: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Jets, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4)

The Jets got destroyed last week in San Diego, losing 31-0 and that’s caused a significant line movement. A week ago, this line was at 6 and now it’s at 9.5 and possibly climbing even more before game time. Ordinarily, I like to fade that kind of line movement, especially with the public all over the favorite Denver here, but I’m still going with the Broncos here. I’m not that confident and there really isn’t much line value with the Broncos, but they still seem like the right side. The Jets were terrible last week so some of that line movement was deserved.

They are now 28th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.75%, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 72.41% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Broncos are moving the chains at a 77.10%, as opposed to 71.85% for their opponents, a differential of 5.25%, 4th in the NFL. The line seems like it’s right where it should be. The Jets are also in a bad spot as they have to go to New England in 4 days for Thursday Night Football. They might not be focused enough to even cover this spread against a dominant opponent. Teams are 40-81 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, including 28-62 ATS as underdogs before being double digit underdogs. Again I’m not confident, but the Broncos are my pick here.

Denver Broncos 30 New York Jets 20

Pick against spread: Denver -9.5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Raiders in Oakland next week, the Jets have to deal with the Broncos at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 90-118 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-37 ATS since 2010 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 28-69 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point home underdogs. Teams are also 57-87 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

I also feel like we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Chargers. This line is 6.5 and the Chargers are definitely more than 3.5 points better than the Jets, especially with no distractions on the horizon and the Jets going into arguably their toughest game of the season. Also hurting the Jets, Eric Decker might not play in this one and he’s easily their best wide receiver. The Chargers should be the right side here.

San Diego Chargers 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: San Diego -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at New York Jets: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Jets, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

This line seems too low. On paper, the Lions should be at least field goal favorites here and win by at least a field goal even on the road against the Jets. Even after beating the Packers, I still think the Lions are underrated. The Lions were one of the best teams in the league last season regardless of what their record said, as they finished 6th in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.42% and this season they are once again right around there, ranking 5th at 5.98%. However, despite that, people are still chalking up last week’s win to Green Bay not being as good as we think. The Packers, regardless of how they’ve looked through 3 games this season, have an incredibly talented offense and the Lions held them to 65.22% moving the chains. They should do something similar to a significantly less talented Jets’ offense. Both the Packers and the Lions are underrated and both should win this week on the road.

The key word is should. There are a few reasons why I’m not that confident in the Lions here, even in essentially a pick em game. One, they’ve lost stud middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch for the season with a torn ACL, which I think hurts their chances of finishing 12-4 and in first place in the NFC North, as I predicted at the start of the season. Two, it’s possible they won’t be 100% after such a big win last week and might overlook a non-conference opponent like the Jets, unlike the Packers, who are coming off of a loss and are facing a divisional opponent. Three, I’m somewhat concerned that Calvin Johnson is dealing with an injury. If he’s less than 100%, it could easily have a noticeable effect on this offense. Four, the Lions are heavily bet by the public and this seems too good to be true. This is too much of a square bet for me to feel comfortable. They should be the right side though.

Detroit Lions 20 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at New York Jets: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

The Jets are 2.5 point favorites here, but the public is still all over the Bears, suggesting that most people think the Bears are going to pull the upset. Usually when the majority of people think there will be an upset, it doesn’t happen. There’s a reason why the Jets are favorites here. I don’t think they’re a very good team, but the Bears aren’t much better. The Jets went 8-8 last season, but that was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games.

The Bears also won 8 games last season and were also one of my picks to regress.  The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. I still think they’ll be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. They have minimal depth and now starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson are going to miss time with injury. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, meanwhile, are significantly less than 100%. I think this line should be at 3, suggesting these two teams are even, so we’re getting a small amount of line value by fading the public. I’m not confident though.

New York Jets 19 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Packers, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

The Packers got blown out in Seattle week 1, but there’s no shame in that and that doesn’t prove they won’t be a good team this season. They were 6-2 in games that Aaron Rodgers started and finished last season and that was even though they had other significant injuries. Now not only is Rodgers healthy, but also Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, and Casey Hayward. They have the opportunity to still be a very good team (I had them at 12-4 before the season started), but this line doesn’t suggest that as they are mere 8.5 point favorites over the Jets. That seems like an overreaction to last week.

The Packers will have had 10 days to prepare for this game, which can’t hurt. Rodgers has been very good off of a loss in his career, going 18-9 ATS in such situations. The Packers also return home where they’ve been incredibly dominant over the past few seasons, as long as Rodgers has been under center. The Packers have also been incredible at home over the past few years, as long as Aaron Rodgers has been under center. Rodgers is 21-8-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 26-4 straight up, with an absurd +409 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.63 points per game. They should be able to flip the script here and blow out the Jets the way they were blown out in Seattle.

The Jets might also be a little overrated here. They looked decent against Oakland (even though they only won by 5), but that was Oakland at home. This is a different story. They went 8-8 last season, but that was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games. They added Eric Decker this off-season and they should have better turnover and fumble luck, after recovering a league worst 30.30% of fumbles and finishing with a -13 turnover margin, but they aren’t a good team. The Packers should blow them out fairly easily here. This is my pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 34 New York Jets 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -8

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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