Jets

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, Jets, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-10) at New York Jets (6-8)

Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. I only pick a side confidently in a matchup like this when there’s a very clear right side. That’s not the case here at all.

On one hand, the Jets are in a sandwich spot here, coming off of a tough loss to the Panthers and before a bigger game against Miami next week. Teams are 81-98 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-102 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. This is a classic rest game situation as the Jets could give less than 100% for an easier game in between two much harder games.

We’re also getting line value with the Browns as the Jets are secretly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 31st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a league worst 63.41% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of -6.23%. This makes sense as their -121 point differential is the 4th worst in the NFL ahead of only Houston, Washington, and Jacksonville. The Browns aren’t good either, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of -3.02%, which is 23rd in the NFL. However, this line suggests these two teams are essentially even, which I don’t think is true. That suggests this line should be at a straight up pick.

On the other hand, the Jets usually bounce back off a loss well. The Jets are 5-2 both straight up and against the spread off of a loss on the season. They’re also a much better home team than road team this season. They are 5-2 straight up and against the spread at home, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 0.86 points per game. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 1-6 straight up and 3-4 against the spread, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 16.43 points per game. At home off of a loss, they are 4-1 ATS this season.

That’s because Geno Smith has been so much better at home on the road. On the road, he’s been downright abysmal, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He hasn’t been great at home, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 7.36 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. However, that’s so much better than he’s been on the road (a QB rating of 70.0, as opposed to 55.9 on the road) and he’s been good enough for their strong defense to carry them to at least some success.

Also, the Browns are not in a good spot either, as, like the Jets, they have a more important game next week, which could keep them from covering the spread. Next week they go to Pittsburgh and teams are 48-75 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, the Browns are far from full strength as they’ll likely be without Joe Haden, Jordan Cameron, and Desmond Bryant.

Haden is easily their best coverage defensive back. Jordan Cameron is a valuable #2 option in the passing game. Now the Jets just have to game plan for Josh Gordon, which will make it much easier to stop him. Desmond Bryant, meanwhile, was very much missed last week against the Bears as their strong run defense (3.7 yards per carry allowed, 3rd in the NFL) allowed the Bears, led by Matt Forte, to rush for 179 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries (5.8 yards per carry). Again, I have no confidence at all either way, but if I had to pick a side, I’d take the Jets as long as this line is below a field goal. If we were getting field goal protection, I might take the Browns. That’s how close this is.

New York Jets 13 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Panthers, Uncategorized

New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (9-4)

At first glance, the Panthers definitely seem like the right side. By all measures, the Panthers are a top-5 team and the Jets are probably a bottom-5 team. The Panthers’ +110 point differential is 4th in the NFL behind the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs. The Jets’ -111 point differential is 3rd worst in the NFL ahead of Washington and Jacksonville. In terms of DVOA, the Panthers rank 3rd and the Jets rank 26th, including 27th in weighted DVOA.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Panthers move the chains at a 76.19% rate, as opposed to 66.57% for their opponents, a 9.62% differential that is actually the best in the NFL. The Jets, meanwhile, come in next to last, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.91% rate, while only moving them at a league worst 62.37% rate, a differential of -6.55%. Given that, this line is actually too small at 11. I have this line calculated at 19, which makes sense if the Panthers are a top level team and the Jets are a bottom level team.

The Jets won last week, but needing a blocked punt return touchdown to beat the Raiders at home by 10 is nothing to write home about. The Jets also have been very bad off of a win over the past 2 seasons, going 3-8 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2012 season. They haven’t handled success well. On top of that, Geno Smith has been horrible on the road this season. He hasn’t been good anywhere, part of why the Jets are moving the chains at a league worst rate and have a league worst 18 offensive touchdowns.

However, his road numbers are some of the worst you’ll ever see for a guy who kept his starting job all season. He’s completed 55.5% of his passes for an average of 6.65 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Even that’s skewed by a 3 touchdown, no interception performance in Atlanta. In his other 5 road games, he has 1 touchdown, and 12 interceptions. As a result, the Jets have lost those 5 games by an average of 21.4 points per game, while the win in Atlanta came by just 2. The Jets are a terrible team, especially on the road.

The Panthers have done a great job of blowing out bottom level teams since the start of the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era. They haven’t always held their own in close games against top level teams like this year, but they’ve always destroyed bad teams, going 6-0 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2011, winning by an average of 20.2 points per game. The Panthers’ defense might be the best in the NFL, allowing 16 offensive touchdowns all season, with 4 of those coming in the Superdome last week. They should completely befuddle the Jets’ dysfunctional offense. I’d actually be shocked if the Jets got out of single digits offensively.

However, there are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One, it’s possible that the Panthers overlook the Jets with a rematch against the Saints coming up next week. Two, the Jets, meanwhile, have no distractions here that would prevent them from covering this spread, as they host the lowly Browns next week. Teams are 49-32 ATS as double digit underdogs before being favorites since 2002, while non-divisional road dogs are 100-65 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. The Panthers should still be the right side and get a blowout victory, but I’m not really confident or anything.

Carolina Panthers 24 New York Jets 6

Pick against spread: Carolina -11

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jets, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7)

The Jets may be 5-7, but they are among the worst teams in the NFL. They have the NFL’s 2nd worst point differential as their 5 wins have come by a combined 19 points, while their 7 losses have come by a combined 140 points. They’ve lost their last 3 games by the combined score of 79-20 and Geno Smith has completed 29 of 74 for 374 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions over his past 4 games, a quarterback rating of 22.0 and might not start the next game, after being pulled for Matt Simms at halftime last week. Their offense is the worst in the NFL, moving the chains at a 65% rate, nullifying their solid defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72% rate, a differential that ranks 31st in the NFL.

They’re also in a bad spot here as they have to go to Carolina next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 34-71 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. They could just be too distracted here. The Raiders, meanwhile, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Dallas. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. It also helps the Raiders that they got extra rest off of a Thursday game last week.

There are four reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on the Raiders. For one, they are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast. Teams tend to struggle in that spot. Two, the Raiders aren’t much better than the Jets. The Jets may rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 30th, moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponent. We’re not really getting any line value with them.

Three, the Raiders are a huge public underdog. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially on heavy leans on the underdog. Any time the public thinks one team is going to pull an upset, it’s definitely a concern. The fourth and final reason is I really like the way the Jets have dealt with the public being against them over the past couple of years. They do a great job bouncing back, going 5-3 ATS off of a loss of 17+ and 5-3 ATS as dogs off of a loss. As long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, the Raiders should still be the right side though.

Oakland Raiders 13 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Jets, Uncategorized

Last week: 16 (-7)

Record: 5-6

The Jets broke their pattern of alternating wins and losses last week, getting destroyed in Baltimore. The Jets seem to lose big and win small this season and they have the NFL 2nd worst point differential at -101, only ahead of Jacksonville. Geno Smith seems to have hit a rookie wall, completing 25 of 64 (39.1%) for 345 yards (5.39 YPA), no touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over the past 3 weeks. However, they’re still right in the playoffs mix and can position themselves even better this week with a win over Miami if their dominant defensive line can completely overpower Miami’s. I think there are better teams in the AFC wild card mix though.

Week 12 Studs

LE Sheldon Richardson

RE Muhammad Wilkerson

DT Damon Harrison

Week 12 Duds

QB Geno Smith

FB Tommy Bohanon

LG Brian Winters

MLB Demario Davis

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6)

The Jets snapped their streak of alternating wins and losses by losing in Baltimore last week and now sit at 5-6. Geno Smith seems to have hit a rookie wall, completing 25 of 64 (39.1%) for 345 yards (5.39 YPA), no touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over the past 3 weeks. So they suck and should be avoided at all costs right? Well that seems to be what the public thinks as they want no part of the Jets as favorites, making the Dolphins a public underdog.

Well, there’s some truth to that. Geno Smith is easily playing like a bottom-3 quarterback right now and the Jets actually have the 2nd worst point differential in the NFL at -101, only better than Jacksonville. They are moving the chains at a mere 66% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, which ranks 27th in the NFL. However, the Dolphins might actually be worse. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, thanks to large part to a dysfunctional (in more ways than one) offensive line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations.

That’s 30th in the NFL and suggests that the Jets should actually be favored by more than two points. They still have a phenomenal defensive line with 3 players who are all deserving of Pro-Bowl consideration (Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson). They can overwhelm the weakness of the Dolphins, their offensive line, and force the Dolphins’ offense down to the level of the Jets’ offense.

I also like how the Jets have dealt with adversity and the public and the media thinking they’re terrible over the past 2 years. This could be a real statement game for them as they seek to stay alive in the playoff race. The Jets have also been better at home this season, going 4-1 including wins over New Orleans and New England, as opposed to 1-4 on the road, where they’ve dropped their last two. Geno Smith’s quarterback rating is close to 20 points higher at home than on the road, but the Jets could win this game even if he doesn’t play well. Teams are more than just quarterbacks, especially this one. Smith completed just 8 passes in their win over the Saints. I’m taking the Jets and fading the public underdog as long as this line is 3 or lower, but I’m not that confident.

New York Jets 13 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jets, Ravens, Uncategorized

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6)

So far, the Jets have alternated wins and losses over the first 10 games, the first team in NFL history to do so. Can they extend that into 11 games and win here in Baltimore? Well, I think the fact that they’ve done so well off of losses this season is something worth noting. The public tends to overreact to their losses because they’re the Jets and they’re the media’s punching bad. The Jets do a very good job feeding off of that and winning as an undervalued and overlooked opponent. The Jets are also in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. They could overlook the Jets with a game against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before a Thursday Night Game since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and last week the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers with a push. The Ravens are also coming off a crushing overtime loss as underdogs in Chicago last week. Home favorites are 18-30 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as road underdogs in overtime.

All that being said, I can’t put anything on the Jets. The Ravens are pretty unbeatable at home, going 26-4 straight up since 2010. Those 4 losses include two against the rival Steelers, who always play the Ravens tough, the Packers, and the Broncos. I really don’t think the Jets are that caliber. Even this year, when they’ve struggled by their standards, they are 4-1 at home, losing only by 2 against the Packers and covering in all 5 instances. The Jets don’t have to win here to cover, which is why I think they’re the right side, but we’re not getting enough points here for me to be that confident in the Jets. If this line increases, I might increase the confidence. The Ravens are just 6-10 ATS since 2010 as home favorites of 5.5 or more. That’s a long way away though.

Baltimore Ravens 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)

The Bills may be 3-7, but they’ve faced a tough schedule, which now gets easier. They will probably be favored in 5 of their remaining 6 games, including 3 at home, where they’ve been very good. This is the first of the games in which they will be favored at home. So far at home, they’ve beaten Carolina and Baltimore and almost beaten Kansas City, Cincinnati, and New England. That’s 4 likely playoff teams and a 5th who is a wild card contender and the defending Super Bowl champions. With the exception of maybe Baltimore, all of those teams are definitely better than these Jets.

The Bills are also getting healthier. EJ Manuel struggled in his first game back against Pittsburgh, completing 22 of 39 for 155 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in a 23-10 loss that wasn’t as close as that would suggest. However, he’s another week healthier this week and he won’t be facing rookie destroyer Dick LeBeau, who is now 19-2 against rookie quarterbacks. CJ Spiller is getting healthier, as is their secondary, which was without Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd to start the season. There’s a good chance they finish at 8-8, despite starting 3-7, starting with a victory here.

The reason this isn’t a significant play on the Bills though is because they have a big trend working against them. Since 2002, home favorites of 1-3.5 are 16-39 ATS before a bye, including 2-15 ATS in a divisional matchup. This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here.

Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002. Being in a divisional matchup makes it worse. That’s only enough to scare me off of making a big play on Buffalo though, not to change sides. They should still be the right side. I just wish they were home dogs, even if it was only by a point or two.

Buffalo Bills 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo -1

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Jets, Uncategorized

Last week: 19 (+3)

Record: 5-4

The Saints lost in New England. The Patriots lost in New York. I don’t know why anyone was surprised the Saints lost in New York and I definitely don’t know why the line was 7. Yeah, they got blown out by the Bengals the week before, but that was just one week and few teams bounce back better from adversity than the Jets have over the past two seasons. Teams are now 44-23 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more, including 20-6 ATS as home dogs. We’ll see if they can continue this after the bye as they go into Buffalo.

Week 9 Studs

FS Dawan Landry

Week 9 Duds

QB Geno Smith

LG Brian Winters

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]