Jets

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Jets, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (6-1) at New York Jets (4-4)

This game features by far the biggest line movement of the week, as the line has shifted 3.5 points since last week, as a result of the Jets’ 49-9 loss in Cincinnati last week. The line is now at a touchdown in favor of New Orleans and the public is still all over them. I think that’s a huge overreaction and, of course, I love fading teams that the public is all over as well. Sure, the Jets looked awful last week, but that was still one game.

That was completely uncharacteristic for their defense, which is still allowing opponents to move the chains at a very solid 70% rate. Offensively, they are moving the chains at just a 69% rate, so that’s obviously their biggest problem, but this line is still way too high. The Saints are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, but I still have the line calculated at around 4 or 4.5, so we’re getting significant line value with the Jets as a result of what happened last week and the subsequent line movement.

That’s usually what happens after a team gets blown out. Teams are 43-23 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more, including 19-6 ATS as home dogs. Teams that are in that situation tend to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed and I think the Jets would qualify as all three right now. Remember, they are still 4-4 and have been alternating wins and losses all season. I wouldn’t overlook them.

The Jets seem to especially be good in situations like this when the media is destroying them. That’s just something I’ve noticed with them over the past couple of years. I mentioned they’ve been alternating wins and losses all season. They are also 4-2 ATS off of a loss by 14 or more over the past 2 seasons, which just puts that into a number. Rex Ryan is very good at getting his team motivated by the media trashing them, which happens more often that it should.

The Saints, meanwhile, are not as good on the road as they are at home. Drew Brees’ quarterback rating drops about 11 points on the road historically, dating back to 2008. This year, in 3 home games, they’ve almost lost in winless Tampa Bay, they won by 8 in Chicago, which isn’t as impressive as it seemed at the time, and they lost in New England in a game they trailed most of the way against a Patriot team that isn’t nearly as good as they’ve been in recent years. They could easily lose in New York and I really like the Jets’ chances of covering here.

New Orleans Saints 19 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: High

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New York Jets: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Jets, Uncategorized

Last week: 18 (-1)

Record: 4-4

I am somehow predicting games against the spread at a 66% this season, including 10-3 this week, but I’ll admit it was really ill advised picking the Jets to cover the 6.5 points in Cincinnati this week. I had reasons for doing so, but I should have shown how flat the Jets would be after beating New England, especially in the fashion they did. The Jets have been alternating wins and losses this season and could represent a trap game this week for the New Orleans Saints.

Week 8 Studs

RT Austin Howard

LE Muhammad Wilkerson

DT Damon Harrison

Week 8 Duds

QB Geno Smith

LG Brian Winters

CB Dee Milliner

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New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)

Both of these teams did similar things last week, winning close games as underdogs, the Bengals in Detroit and the Jets at home against the Patriots. However, the Bengals are in a bad spot this week because their close win came on the road and because they are now favorites.  Home favorites are 25-52 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. The Jets lost to the Steelers a few weeks ago in this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are actually kind of in a good spot, as teams are 25-16 ATS as dogs off of an overtime home win as underdogs since 1989. It’s not a great trend, but it shows they won’t as flat as the Bengals easily could be.

I also think this line is a little off, as the Bengals are favored by 6.5 even though these teams have essentially played the same this season. The Jets are moving the chains at a 69% rate offensively, while their opponents are doing so at a 68% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 74% rate offensively, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a rate that could get worse now that top cornerback Leon Hall is out for the season. This line is at least 3, if not 4 points too high and that doesn’t even take into account that the Bengals could be flat as big favorites off of last week’s win.

The only reason this isn’t a Pick of the Week is because the Jets might not be as focused as they’d need to be with a home game against the Saints next week, while the Bengals should be favored in Miami next week. As for the Jets, non-divisional road dogs are 80-111 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, for the Bengals, non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites since 2008. However, they might not be favorites because the line is currently expected to be -1 and if they were to be dogs, that trend would switch to 61-84 ATS since 2008. They could also be distracted before a Thursday Night Game next week. Favorites are 26-51 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008. It’s a high confidence pick on the Jets.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against spread: NY Jets +6.5

Confidence: High

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New York Jets: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Jets, Uncategorized

Last week: 20 (+2)

Record: 4-3

You can question the result of the Jets’ win over the Patriots because of that obscure penalty, but the takeaways from that game should not change depending on the results. The defense remains strong, holding Tom Brady under 50% completion despite the return of Rob Gronkowski and returning an interception to the house. Geno Smith did some nice things, but also threw a pick six and remains an inconsistent rookie quarterback. This season is promising for the Jets going forward, but they might be a year of consistent Geno Smith development away from being a legitimate playoff contender.

Week 8 Studs

WR Jeremy Kerley

WR David Nelson

LE Muhammad Wilkerson

LOLB Calvin Pace

Week 8 Duds

RB Chris Ivory

FB Tommy Bohanan

LG Brian Winters

C Nick Mangold

ROLB Quinton Coples

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3)

Injuries are a huge part of this game write up as the Patriots have one of the most thorough and dynamic injury situations in the NFL. We already know Vince Wilfork is out for the season with a torn Achilles. The Patriots have done a good job continuing to play strong defense even without him, though their run defense is noticeably worse. The Patriots are allowing opponent to move the chains on 68% of opportunities this season. They haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule, but they held Drew Brees to less than 50% completion last week for just the 2nd time since the beginning of the 2007 season.

Unfortunately, that win did come at a price, as Jerod Mayo tore his pectoral late and will miss the remainder of the season. Mayo was ProFootballFocus’ #2 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker after Von Miller last season, but he ranks dead last at his position through 6 games this season. He’s been awful against the run and even though he probably would have improved his run play going forward, I think he can be replaced in the run game by 2nd round rookie Jamie Collins. However, his ability in coverage will definitely be missed. Even this season, he was grading out above average in coverage. Neither Dont’a Hightower nor Brandon Spikes, as good as they are against the run, is good in coverage, but they will be relied on more in that fashion going forward as Collins is expected to be a pure two-down linebacker.

Fortunately, they are getting stellar play from Devin McCourty at safety this season so their lack of a strong coverage linebacker can be masked a bit. McCourty is ProFootballFocus’ #1 ranked safety. The Patriots are also expected to be without Aqib Talib in this one, though there is a chance he could suit up after returning to a limited practice on Friday. That’s obviously a huge loss as he’s been ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked cornerback this season, but if there were a game for him to miss, it’s this one. The Jets are without Santonio Holmes again and they are generally devoid of play makers downfield so the absence of Talib will be minimized in this one. The Jets are moving the chains at a 66% rate on the season thanks to the inconsistencies of rookie quarterback Geno Smith and his receiving corps so they should still have a strong defensive game.

Offensively, Danny Amendola is not expected to play with a concussion, which will leave them with the inconsistent trio of Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson, and Julian Edelman at wide receiver. However, the Patriots are expected to get Rob Gronkowski back this week. That could definitely be huge. Gronkowski might not be 100% in his first game back, but his presence on the field alone is going to help them tremendously and he should also be very productive in the passing game, especially around the goal line. Even if he doesn’t play a full set of snaps, he’ll definitely be used on all red zone and goal line snaps.

The Patriots are 30th in red zone scoring percentage this season, scoring a touchdown on just 40.9% red zone opportunities, only ahead of Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. This is opposed to last year, when they scored a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone opportunities, 3rd in the NFL. The absence of the 6-6 Gronkowski, who has scored 36 times in his last 35 full games, undoubtedly has a ton to do with that.

Over the past 2 seasons, Rob Gronkowski has played in 10 full games. In those 10 games, Tom Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He’s missed 14 games, including playoffs. In those 14 games, Brady has completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Gronk returning won’t solve all of his problems, but it’ll have a significant impact, particularly against a tough Jets defense, that is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68% rate. They’ll have to make the most of their goal line opportunities to win this one.

Before the announcement of Gronk’s return, I was leaning towards the Jets to at least keep this one within a field goal, in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs (64-43 ATS since 2002), especially since the Patriots could be overconfident after last week’s win. However, I don’t really want to go against the Patriots in a game in which they could be much improved offensively. On top of that, Tom Brady is 17-6 ATS in his career after a game in which he won despite throwing 16 or more incompletions, including 1-1 ATS this season. I’m not confident in them at all, but they’re the side I’m going with.

New England Patriots 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against spread: New England -3.5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Jets, Uncategorized

Last week: 18 (-2)

Record: 3-3

Geno Smith was on the cover of the New York Daily News with the headline “A Star is Born,” after Geno completed 16 of 20 for 199 yards and 3 touchdowns in an upset road win over the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Apparently this is bad luck because Mark Sanchez was on the cover of the same magazine with the same headline as a rookie in 2009 and we all know how that ended. A week after the cover was published, Geno laid a dud at home against the previously winless Steelers. In all seriousness, people were way too conveniently forgetting Geno’s stinker in a blowout loss to the Titans the week before. He’s an inconsistent rookie quarterback and will remain that this season. It’s why I took Pittsburgh this week and why the line shifted to Pittsburgh -1 before the game.

Week 6 Studs

RE Sheldon Richardson

DT Damon Harrison

SS Antonio Allen

Week 6 Duds

QB Geno Smith

CB Antonio Cromartie

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New York Jets: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Jets, Uncategorized

Last week: 26 (+8)

Record: 3-2

I know it doesn’t fit the narrative, but the Jets aren’t bad. I don’t think they are a playoff team, but this start isn’t a fluke. They can be a .500 team this year. They certainly have the defense, allowing opponents to move the chains on 68% of opportunities, one of the best rates in the NFL. They aren’t moving the ball well offensively (67%) because of the inconsistencies of rookie Geno Smith, but there’s no question he’s been brilliant at times this year, though he has throwing more interceptions than touchdowns.

Week 5 Studs

LE Muhammad Wilkerson

DT Damon Harrison

ROLB Garrett McIntyre

Week 5 Duds

ROLB Quinton Coples

MLB David Harris

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jets, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2)

The bye week might have been exactly what the Steelers needed. They sit at 0-4, but they get as healthy as they can be during the bye, with veterans resting up and guys like Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell getting extra time to get back to full strength. I still don’t think they’ll be as this bad all season. They’re getting destroyed in the turnover battle with a -11 turnover margin that is one of the worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to even out in the long run.

They won’t suddenly be good at winning the turnover battle going forward, but they won’t continue on this pace. At -11 through 4 games, they are averaging -2.8 per game, a -45 pace, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Even if they are destined to become the worst turnover margin team in NFL history (I don’t think they will be), they’ll be significantly better in this aspect going forward. They won’t continue recovering just 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Meanwhile, their talented defense, which has forced 22 punts to 74 takeaways, will eventually start taking the ball away, after not doing so once in their first 4 games.

The Jets aren’t good in takeaways either, at -9 on the season, but their turnover problems are more interception than fumble based. Geno Smith has 8 interceptions on 156 attempts and I don’t think it would be ridiculous if he continues throwing a bunch of interceptions. He’s a rookie quarterback who likes to force things downfield. When it works it’s great, when it doesn’t, well, not so much.

If he were to reduce his turnover rate, it would probably be at the expense of some of the things he’s doing well, like averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. They aren’t doing well recovering fumbles either, recovering 33.3%, and their talented defense (82 first downs allowed, 34 punts forced) will force more than 3 turnovers in their next 5 games, so their turnover margin should be better going forward. However, the Steelers are the ones more underrated because of their turnover margin in this matchup.

Speaking of the Jets, they’re in a bad spot after last week’s huge win. Since 2002, teams are 46-66 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-27 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. Going off of that, home favorites are 25-51 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. After a huge upset win in dramatic fashion last week, it’s understandable that they could be flat for a 0-4 team. They could also be caught looking forward to a huge divisional matchup with the Patriots next week. I really like the Steelers’ chances of pulling the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 New York Jets 9 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Falcons, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3)

Ordinarily, the Falcons dominate at home and ordinarily they dominate off of a loss, at least in the Matt Ryan era. In which started by Matt Ryan, the Falcons are 34-8 straight up at home, including 25-16 ATS. Off of a loss, Matt Ryan is 18-5 ATS. However, they were at home off of a loss last week and they still lost to the Patriots, in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would have suggested. Though the Falcons lost by just 7, the Falcons’ win probability was about 1% with 6:18 left to go in the 4th quarter. It took an onside kick recovery to even make it competitive.

It’s very, very likely the Falcons just aren’t that good. I had them going 8-8 at the beginning of the season (thanks to a tougher schedule, off-season losses, and the fact that they’d have less “luck” recovering fumbles and winning close games). However, thanks to the Falcons’ injuries (Sean Weatherspoon, Steven Jackson, Kroy Biermann, Roddy White, Sam Baker), they might be 8-8 at best to finish this season. This is probably as bad of a Falcon team as we’ve seen as 2007, the final year before Matt Ryan/Mike Smith.

Given that, I don’t think they deserve to be 10 point favorites here, even at home and off of a loss. Besides, they are just 7-6 ATS under Matt Ryan as home favorites of a touchdown or more and have won just 1 home game by more than 10 points in their last 12 home games. The Jets, their opponents this week, aren’t terrible. They can’t move the ball offensively and having Santonio Holmes out and Stephen Hill being a game time decision at best won’t help. However, they have a fantastic defense that has allowed opponents to move the chains on 61% of chances, the best rate in the NFL.

They’ll be able to frustrate Matt Ryan all game, especially with a poor offensive line and running game unable to take the pressure off of him and a limited Roddy White, who re-aggravated his ankle injury against New England. They have one of the best front 7s and defensive fronts in the league and can absolutely dominate this game in the trenches.  The Jets also have a situational trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off a road loss since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. It’s not a big play on the Jets because of the situational trends on the Falcons’ side and the Jets’ injuries, but they should be the right side. This line is too big. The Falcons are my Survivor Pick, however, in a tough week for Survivor Picks.

Atlanta Falcons 20 New York Jets 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: NY Jets +10

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Jets, Uncategorized

Last week: 25 (-1)

Record: 2-2

Brandon Moore retired. Mark Sanchez is out for the season. And ESPN took down Butt Fumble as Worst of the Worst. And yet, somehow, the Jets manage to continue to make themselves the butt of jokes (I’ll let you decide whether or not the pun was intended). Geno Smith fumbled this week off of his OWN butt trying to move the ball from one hand to another behind his back like some sort of Harlem Globetrotter. The fumble was recovered by Tennessee in the end zone for a touchdown. You can’t make this stuff up.

Week 4 Studs

RE Sheldon Richardson

Week 4 Duds

QB Geno Smith

LG Vlad Ducaase

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