Jets

New York Jets: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 23 (+2)

Record: 3-4

I’m impressed with the way the Jets have bounced back from losing Darrelle Revis and then getting shut out at home by the 49ers. Since then, they’ve covered in 3 straight games, hanging with the Texans, blowing out the Colts, and hanging with the Patriots in New England. Antonio Cromartie is playing out of his mind right now since Revis went down, allowing 7 catches for 109 yards on 22 attempts, with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and 4 pass deflections. The defensive and offensive fronts are playing like they have before, allowing the team’s run offense and run defense to improve. Mark Sanchez is still the limiting factor (against anyone except the Patriots’ horrific secondary), but this team is moving up despite the loss. I’m impressed.

Studs

QB Mark Sanchez: 28 of 41 for 328 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 4 drops, 1 hit as thrown, 100.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 45 drop backs (3 sacks, 4 of 7, 1 hit as thrown)

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

C Nick Mangold: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 41 yards on 15 attempts

WR Jeremy Kerley: Caught 7 passes for 120 yards on 11 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Dustin Keller: Caught 7 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 3.9 YAC per catch

CB Antonio Cromartie: Allowed 1 catch for 16 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists

Duds

RT Austin Howard: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts

RB Shonn Greene: Caught 6 passes for 34 yards on 8 attempts, 1 drop, rushed for 54 yards (28 after contact) and a touchdown on 16 attempts

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots

New York Jets (3-3) at New England Patriots (3-3)

You gotta love the public overreaction with the Patriots. Last week, they were one of the best teams in the league. Now you get guys like Tony Dungy saying they’re “not very good” and an “average team” just because they lost by 1 point to a good Seattle team in Seattle. The Seahawks are awesome at home, going 15-4 ATS as home dogs since 2007 and now they might have their most talented team in that time period. There’s not really any shame losing to them there.

That loss did drop the Patriots to 12-10 in games where they take a lead of 10 or fewer into the 4th quarter, dating back to their loss to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship game, which is obviously concerning since the average team wins 70% of those games. However, they are 7-6 in games where they trail by 10 or fewer going into the 4th. It’s very possible that their struggles when entering the 4th with a slim lead are caused by play calling and a lack of urgency, not that they’ve lost their clutch edge. Overall, going 19-16 in games where the score is within 10 heading into the 4th quarter isn’t so bad.

They probably won’t have to worry about that this week, as is often the case. In their last 79 games, they’ve had a lead of more than 10 heading into the 4th quarter a whopping 41 times, winning them all, and this feels like another one of those games. They’ve had to listen to how “average” they are all week and how they’ve “lost it” when in actuality, they just lost to a good team that’s very good at home by 1 point. They’ve lost 3 games by a combined 4 points this year. This is still a really good team.

They’re in a very good spot this week. Tom Brady is 16-6 ATS off a loss as a favorite in his career and 26-12 ATS in general off a loss. As a result of their “surprising” loss last week, we’re actually getting the Patriots much cheaper than we would have last week as this week was -13 last week and it’s now -10.5 and not only that, but there’s equal action on both sides by the public. We’re not getting line value with this team if we use the traditional yards per play differential method as that produces a “real” line of New England -5, but there are some issues with that traditional method.

The most important one is that it underrates teams like the Patriots who don’t have a lot of big plays and allow a lot of big plays, but also that are very tough to get off the field and are good at getting their opponents’ off the field. That’s why I created a stat known as rate of sustaining drives, which essentially is the rate of total 1st and 10s to first downs, essentially, on any given set of downs, how often does a team get another one (or score). The Patriots do that on 85.5% of their sets of downs, while their opponents do it on just 72.4%, giving them a league leading differential of 13.1% in that category.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 27th with a differential of -7.4%. If you take the difference of those two numbers and divide by 1.5 and add 3 for home field advantage, using this method, you get a line of New England -16.5. I’m not saying this is a better method than the traditional one or that’s it’s perfect, but it can be used to find teams that the traditional method under or overrates. At New England -10, we don’t seem to be getting any real line value either way. If there is any either way, it’s in favor of New England because -5 and -16.5 average out to be about -11.5.

Meanwhile, while the Patriots are underrated and in a good spot off of last week’s game, the Jets are in the opposite situation. Dogs of 10+ are 4-7 ATS off a wins of 21+ since 1989. It doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it seems to be for a good reason, which is that the win the week before appears to be a fluke and typically that ends up being an accurate assessment.

The Jets were able to win last week because they were able to run the ball effectively, play solid defense, and win the turnover battle, three things I think they’ll be unable to do this week. Before last week, they weren’t able to run nearly as well as they did against a banged up Colts defense. The 252 yards they rushed for last week account for 38% of the rushing yards they’ve had all season and they still rank 23rd in the league in yards per carry. Besides, the Patriots rank 4th in the league, allowing 3.4 YPC on the ground. Even Seattle, normally a run heavy team, didn’t really even try to run the ball on them last week and they weren’t effective when they attempted it.

The Patriots also 1st in the league in points per game so the Jets’ chances of stopping them are pretty slim and thus their ability to run a conservative game plan like last week (44 runs to 19 passes) is pretty limited, bad news since that’s how their team is most efficient. I also don’t think they’ll win the turnover battle like last week, when they won it 4 to 0. Not only are turnover differentials incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis, they’re playing a Patriots team that is tied for the league lead at +10 and is one of the few teams to be able to consistently win the turnover battle on a week to week basis. Since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, they’ve won the turnover battle 121 times and lost it 67 times.

If the Jets are going to have any chance to win this game, it’ll be up to Mark Sanchez to exploit the Patriots’ weakness, their secondary, like Russell Wilson did last week. However, Sanchez couldn’t even exploit Indianapolis’ secondary last week, averaging 4.6 YPA against a team that is allowing 7.6 YPA on the season. He’s completing just 49.7% of his passes for 6.4 YPA and 8 touchdowns to 6 interceptions on the season, all worse than Russell Wilson, and this is a road game for him, not a home game like it was for Wilson.

The Patriots’ secondary should also be improved this week, not just because it’s a bounce back game at home, but because they will get back Patrick Chung, who left last week with an injury. Donta Hightower is also expected back this week after missing the last 2 games. His absence has forced Rob Ninkovich to play more linebacker, which has turned their 2nd best pass rusher from a pure defensive end to someone who only rushes the passer in obvious passing situations. I hate laying this many points with any team, but this one feels like a blowout for many reasons.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NE 12 NYJ 6

Final update: No change.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: New England -10.5 (-110) 2 units

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New York Jets: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 28 (+3)

Record: 3-3

The Jets’ win last week was impressive, which is why I’m moving them up, but it’s important to look at how they won. They won by running the ball and playing great defense. The defense I expect will continue to be at least decent. Darrelle Revis is gone, but Antonio Cromartie has done a good job as the new #1 cornerback and other guys have stepped up in his absence. However, it’s their running game’s performance that I doubt can continue. Their running game didn’t do anything remotely resembling that in their first 5 games and the Colts’ run defense is pretty bad, especially with all of the injuries they have.

Mark Sanchez, meanwhile, was once again less than impressive, averaging 4.6 YPA against a defense that is surrendering 7.6 YPA all season. He passed for just 82 yards and is on pace for only 3000 yards. I made a prop bet at the beginning of the season that he wouldn’t get 3200, expecting him to be benched. Even if he doesn’t get benched, I still might win that. He’s gone under 200 yards in 3 of his 6 games.

Studs

C Nick Mangold: Did not allow a pressure on 19 pass block snaps, run blocked for 92 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts

LG Matt Slauson: Did not allow a pressure on 16 attempts, run blocked for 47 yards on 8 attempts, 1 penalty

RB Shonn Greene: Rushed for 161 yards (82 after contact) and 3 touchdowns on 32 carries, 8 broken tackles

SS LaRon Landry: Allowed 1 catch for 12 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hit on 4 blitzes

Duds

RT Austin Howard: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

LOLB Calvin Pace: Did not record a pressure on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Colts, Jets

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at New York Jets (2-3)

Last week, I was very hesitant to make a big play on the Texans, even though I felt they were the significant superior team, because the Jets had so many things working in their favor. They were coming off an embarrassing home shutout and had to spend the week listening to how, at 2-2, they were done. Houston, meanwhile, sat at 4-0, so that game meant nothing to them, especially with Green Bay next on the schedule. The Jets managed to cover thanks to a kickoff return touchdown. The Jets threw everything they had at the Texans and the Texans were sleep walking, but they still did not win.

It’s very tough to maintain that type of intensity week in and week out in the NFL. In fact, I expect them to be flat this week. This is a bad spot for them, even not considering how much effort they put into the Houston game, only to lose. Favorites off a loss as a dog before being dogs are 53-77 ATS since 2008. They play New England next week, the division leader and a hated rival, so they could easily overlook the “lowly’ Colts.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts, are in the opposite spot. Dogs before being favorites are 75-44 ATS since 2011. They host Cleveland next week. The Colts played with a ton of intensity last week as well, coming back from down 18 at halftime as 7 point underdogs to beat the Packers. Reggie Wayne had the game of his life and got the game ball, which he gave to Head Coach Chuck Pagano, who is currently hospitalized undergoing treatment for leukemia. Given what they’re playing for, I give them a much better chance of keeping up that level of intensity than the Jets.

We’re also getting points with the better team as the Colts rank .4 yards per play better than the Jets in yards per play differential, which translate to a “real” line of -0.5 in favor of the Jets, meaning we’re getting 3 points of line value with the Colts and that’s not taking into account the Jets’ injury situation. I don’t think this line really captures how awful the Jets are without Darrelle Revis and all of the other players missing with injury. Their game on Monday Night was not indicative of this team’s talent level, for reasons I already mentioned.

One NFL executive compared the Revis injury to any other team losing its starting quarterback and he was so right. Without Revis, they can’t do any of the things to normally make them good defensively and for a defensive minded team, that’s absolutely devastating. Without him, they can’t blitz as much as they normally do, which really hurts a team that already ranked 4th worst in the league in pass rush efficiency.

It also hurts their run defense some because they have to play their linebackers and safeties deeper in coverage, rather than stacking the box with Rex Ryan’s signature 46 scheme, as they often do. Normally a good run defense team, this team ranks 29th in the league against the run and don’t expect that to improve without Revis. They’re also missing their top-2 nose tackles, Sione Pouha and Kenrick Ellis, so they’re expected to start undrafted rookie Damon Harrison at nose tackle. And, of course, Revis’ absence also hurts the overall pass defense. They currently rank 10th against the pass, but with no Revis, no pass rush, and poor safety play, expect that rank to fall in future weeks.

Offensively, they were already a mess. Mark Sanchez’ 48% completion percentage is the worst through 5 games by any starting quarterback since JaMarcus Russell in 2009. Sanchez will likely get at least one of his receivers, Dustin Keller, back from injury this week and maybe Stephen Hill as well, but it’s unclear if that will help. They also rank 30th in the league running the ball as neither Shonn Greene nor Bilal Powell can get anything going. Meanwhile, the offensive line isn’t doing any favors to either their run or pass attack, ranking 27th in pass block efficiency and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked run blocking group. If you started over the season today, they might have the worst record in the league going forward.

Given that, I can’t put any money on them as favorites of more than a field goal in any situation. In this situation, however, I really like Indianapolis. They’re playing in their Head Coach’s honor and they’re dogs before being favorites. The Jets, meanwhile, are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs. This would have been a 5 unit co-pick of the week if I wasn’t worried about betting a publicly backed underdog (Indianapolis), but it’s still a big play.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NYJ 22 IND 6

Final update: This one surprised me, but the LV Hilton line is Jets -3, so maybe that makes a difference. I just can’t understand taking the Jets as more than 3 point favorites right now. They put everything into their game last week and they’re generally abysmal thanks to all of their injuries. We’re getting more than a field goal with the better team in the better spot.

Indianapolis Colts 26 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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New York Jets: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 2-3

The Jets “moral victory” over the Texans will keep Mark Sanchez as the starting quarterback at least another week, but that’s probably not the right decision. Sanchez’s 48% completion percentage is the worst through 5 games since JaMarcus Russell’s final year as a starter in 2009. The Jets threw everything they had at the Texans, who appeared to be sleep walking, and still needed a kickoff return touchdown to keep it within a score. Some more fun with numbers: Mark Sanchez’ YPA: 6.6, touchdowns: 6, interceptions: 6, QB rating: 66.6, longest pass: 66 yards, jersey number: 6, and he played in the 666th Monday Night Football game. Not only does he suck, he’s probably the devil.

Studs

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: 1 quarterback hit, 3 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

RB Joe McKnight: Rushed for 5 yards (5 yards after contact) on 4 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 4 kickoff returns for 141 yards and a touchdown

Duds

QB Mark Sanchez: 14 of 31 for 230 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 2 hit as thrown, 4 batted passes, 3 drops, 70.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 34 drop backs (3 sacks, 2 of 8, 2 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 1 interception)

WR Jason Hill: Caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 2 attempts on 15 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

MLB Bart Scott: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, was not thrown on

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Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Jets, Texans

Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2)

Prior to the Jets’ 34-0 home loss to the 49ers last week, one NFL executive compared the Revis injury to any other team losing it’s starting quarterback and he was so right. Without Revis, they can’t do any of the things to normally make them good defensively and for a defensive minded team, that’s absolutely devastating. Without him, they can’t blitz as much as they normally do, which really hurts a team that already ranked 4th worst in the league in pass rush efficiency.

It also hurts their run defense some because they have to play their linebackers and safeties deeper in coverage, rather than stacking the box with Rex Ryan’s signature 46 scheme, as they often do. Normally a good run defense team, this team ranks 30th in the league against the run and don’t expect that to improve much, if at all, without Revis’ presence. And, of course, he hurts the overall pass defense. They currently rank 10th against the pass, but with no Revis, no pass rush, and poor safety play, expect that rank to fall in future weeks.

Offensively, they were already a mess. In his last 3 games, Sanchez is 44 of 101 for 547 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Even with a strong opener factored in, he still ranks 30th out of 32 eligible in quarterback rating. Rex Ryan won’t make the switch to Tim Tebow even though they acquired him for this very purpose and even though he can’t possibly he worse. At least he can run and revitalize this rushing attack some. Plus, as a passer, he actually has a better career QB rating than Mark Sanchez with a lower interception rate and he won the head-to-head matchup last year.

Speaking of that running game, they rank 30th in the league in yards per carry. Shonn Greene is so mediocre and 2nd year back Bilal Powell isn’t much better and isn’t getting enough carries to make any difference. The receiving corps isn’t doing Sanchez any favors either. Santonio Holmes was lost for the season last week from an already thin receiving corps, leaving Sanchez with 2nd round rookie Stephen Hill, 2011 5th round pick Jeremy Kerley, career journeyman Chaz Schilens, and tight end Dustin Keller, who has been limited to 1 catch in 1 game thanks to injury this year. His leading receiver in 2011, Keller might not play in this one either, after missing the last 3. Meanwhile, the offensive line isn’t doing any favors to either their run or pass attack, ranking 27th in pass block efficiency and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked run blocking group. There isn’t a single thing they do well without Revis.

They looked awful last week on the field last week. They turned the ball over 4 times and didn’t force a turnover and averaged just 2.9 yards per play, as opposed to 5.6 yards per play for their opponent, the 49ers. You could have given them 10 quarters and they wouldn’t have been able to score. They have 2 wins, but if you started the season over today, they’d probably finish with the worst record in the NFL.

All that being said, there are so many reasons to bet on the Jets this week. For one, look at the line movement. This line was -4 last week and now it’s -8.5. I know the Jets looked horrendous last week, but that’s one of the biggest non-injury related line movements I’ve ever seen (I know they lost Santonio Holmes, but it’s not like he was a star player or anything). Still, the public is pounding Houston and I love betting against the public, especially on huge leans, which is what this is.

On top of that, the Jets are getting completely shitted on in the media. This is a Monday Night Football game that no one is giving them a chance to even be competitive in. Not only is the mass media normally wrong and over-reactive, the Jets are in a similar situation to before week 1, when they shut up everyone who made fun of them for not scoring a touchdown with the 1st or 2nd team all preseason by dropping 48 on the Bills.

Going off of that, teams are 38-25 ATS off a home shutout since 1989, including 33-18 ATS as a dog and 11-5 ATS as a home dog. Speaking of home dogs, home dogs of 7+ are 98-78 ATS since 2002. They tend to be really undervalued.  Also undervalued are teams coming off a loss of 28 or more. Teams in that situation are 82-55 ATS the following week as dogs. The Titans pulled an upset and the Panthers nearly pulled an upset in this situation in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Texans could be sleep walking through this one. The Jets are being made out to be a laughing stock and the Texans are 4-0, with a 3 game division lead, and have a tough contest with the Packers next week, just 6 days after this one, so they probably won’t be 100% focused.

However, I just can’t bring myself to bet on the Jets. It’s a small play and it would be zero unit if I did those, but the Jets are just too horrible. Even though it’s a complete overreaction line, the line is still reasonable. The “real” line, for anyone who knows that formula I keep mentioning, in this game is -7 in favor of Houston. That means we technically get 1.5 points of line value with the Jets, but that’s fully not taking into account how awful they are without Revis. Also, the Texans are probably the best team in the league. Teams this year are 2-2 as 10+ point favorites. The Texans are 2-0. As 7+ road favorites, teams are 1-2. The Texans are 1-0. As road favorites in general, teams are 9-14. The Texans are 1-0. I’m not betting against them.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: HOU 13 NYJ 10

Final Pick: Sharps are pretty split, as am I, but I can’t bet on the Jets.

Houston Texans 31 New York Jets 9

Pick against spread: Houston -8.5 (-110) 1 unit

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New York Jets: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 25 (-3)

Record: 2-2

Prior to the Jets’ 34-0 home loss to the 49ers last week, one NFL executive compared the Revis injury to any other team losing it’s starting quarterback and he was so right. Without Revis, they can’t do any of the things to normally make them good defensively and it certainly looked like it on the field last week. They turned the ball over 4 times and didn’t force a turnover and averaged just 2.9 yards per play, as opposed to 5.6 yards per play for their opponent’s, the 49ers. You could have given them 10 quarters and they wouldn’t have been able to score. They have 2 wins, but if you started the season over today, they’d probably finish with the worst record in the NFL. There isn’t a single thing they do well without Revis. They rank 30th in the league in yards per play differential and expect that to continue to fall in future weeks.

New York Jets

Studs

CB Antonio Cromartie: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 penalty

Duds

QB Mark Sanchez: 13 of 29 for 103 yards and an interception, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 48.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 32 drop backs (1 scramble, 2 sacks, 1 of 7, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown)

C Nick Mangold: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 22 yards on 8 attempts

LG Matt Slauson: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 carry

RB Shonn Greene: Rushed for 34 yards (18 after contact) on 11 carries, no catches on 1 target, 1 drop

WR Santonio Holmes: Caught 4 passes for 29 yards on 8 targets on 25 pass plays, 8.5 YAC per catch

MLB David Harris: 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 5 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 3 attempts, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

LE Mike DeVito: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

NT Kenrick Ellis: Did not record a pressure on 10 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

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San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, 49ers, Jets

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)

Remember how the Jets’ chance to make the playoffs was on the conservative offense, good defense, don’t make mistakes, easy schedule model? Yeah, that doesn’t work if you can’t play good defense and without Darrelle Revis, they’re going to have a hard time doing so many of the things they normally do on defense. They also don’t run the ball particularly well with mediocre back Shonn Greene now ceding carries to an unproven Bilal Powell and Mark Sanchez is as he’s always been.

Revis’ injury is huge. It can’t be understated. Revis’ presence as someone who can shut down one side of the field is huge because it allows the Jets to use all sorts of exotic blitz packages. They already rank just 27th in the league in pass rush efficiency so I don’t expect them to get very much pressure at all on Alex Smith behind an improved San Francisco offensive line. Calvin Pace looks pretty done, Aaron Maybin is proving last year was a fluke, and rookie Quinton Coples hasn’t done anything yet.

Smith has proven that if you give him time, he can move the chains through the air and with Kyle Wilson and Ellis Lankster playing significant roles in the secondary, he should be able to do that with some ease this week. He’ll be helped by what should be a strong game from Frank Gore as the Jets, normally a good run defense, rank just 26th against the run in this early season.

So San Francisco’s offense vs. the Jets’ defense, advantage San Francisco, Jets’ offense versus 49ers’ defense, well let’s just say it won’t be pretty. The Vikings moved the ball well on the 49ers’ defense last week, but the Vikings are an underrated bunch and San Francisco was in an obvious let down situation so that doesn’t surprise me that much. This is still the same defense that shut down the Packers and Lions in their first 2 games and the same defense that ranked 2nd in opponent’s scoring last year. It’s arguable that their defense is even better this year because they’re not as reliant on forcing turnovers.

Well coached teams normally rebound off of upset losses. There isn’t much data with the 49ers in that situation because they’ve only had one upset loss (two if you count the NFC Championship game last year), but the 49ers have covered easily in both instances. They’re all 4-0 ATS off a loss in the Harbaugh era. Expect that to continue into the future and to play a factor this week. The Jets’ offense doesn’t have much of a chance against a pissed off 49ers defense and the Revis injury destroys so much of what they do defensively.

There aren’t any true trends in play here, other than the Harbaugh off a loss one, but the 49ers should win this one with ease. On paper, the Jets don’t even come close to matching up with the 49ers without Revis. Four things do worry me. One, this is a 1 PM ET time start for the 49ers on the East Coast, which is normally a disadvantage. However, the 49ers were a perfect 4-0 in this situation last year and since they had a road game last week, they haven’t returned to San Francisco. Harbaugh has them practicing in Youngstown, Ohio in the East Coast time zone so there’s not going to be much of an issue of jetlag for them.

The 2nd reason is that the Jets are a home dog and home dogs are 13-6 ATS and 12-7 SU this year, though I think that’s probably a fluke and probably had something to do with the replacement refs. The third reason is just that the public is betting the 49ers heavily and the public is just 4-12 on heavy leans this year. The fourth reason is that the media has written the Jets off this week, so that’s provided a 2-1 team with plenty of bulletin board material. Also the general media is normally wrong, with goes right along with the public normally being wrong. Still, I like the 49ers. It’s not a huge play or anything, but they should be the right side.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): SF 11 NYJ 7

Update: Feeling a little bit more confident now that I know the sharps like San Francisco too. This one had me nervous because it felt like a trap line, but I’m sticking with the 2 units.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Jets 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -4.5 (-110) 2 units

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New York Jets: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 19 (-6)

Record: 2-1

Remember how the Jets’ chance to make the playoffs was on the conservative offense, good defense, don’t make mistakes, easy schedule model? Yeah, that doesn’t work if you can’t play good defense and without Darrelle Revis, they’re going to have a hard time doing so many of the things they normally do on defense. They also don’t run the ball particularly well with mediocre back Shonn Greene now ceding carries to an unproven Bilal Powell and Mark Sanchez is as he’s always been. They may be 2-1and in a tie for first in their division, but after needing luck and overtime to beat the Dolphins and losing Revis for the season, the Jets are looking pretty done. They rank 25th in the league in yards per play differential. They should just put Tebow in. He might not be an upgrade, but it would be so much more entertaining.

Studs

C Nick Mangold: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 43 yards on 12 carries

WR Santonio Holmes: Caught 9 passes for 147 yards  on 14 targets on 47 pass plays, 2.9 YAC per catch, 1 drop

MLB Bart Scott: 6 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback pressure on 7 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 3 attempts

LE Muhammad Wilkerson: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 8 stops

Duds

QB Mark Sanchez: 21 of 45 for 311 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 4 drops, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 65.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 47 drop backs (1 sack, 12 of 20, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Shonn Greene: Rushed for 40 yards (26 after contact) on 19 carries, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 5 pass block snaps, caught 2 passes for 9 yards on 2 attempts

RT Austin Howard: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback pressures on 51 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 10 yards on 5 attempts

WR Stephen Hill: Did not catch a pass on 7 targets on 24 pass plays, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

LOLB Calvin Pace: 1 quarterback hurry on 20 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Jets expect Darrelle Revis to play, rule Dustin Keller out

stevenlourie Jets, News

Darrelle Revis missed last week against the Steelers with a concussion and he was really missed as the Steelers beat the Jets 27-10 on the strength of a very strong performance from Ben Roethlisberger (24 of 31 for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns) that probably would not have happened if Revis were in the lineup. This week, however, the Jets get Revis back for a divisional clash with the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins put up 35 points on the board against a pathetic Raiders defense last week, but that probably won’t happen again this week. Reggie Bush won’t have the 172 yards and 2 touchdowns he had last week against a perennially good Jets run defense that held the Steelers to 66 yards on 28 carries last week, thanks to the return of stud nose tackle Sione Pouha. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill, who was 18 of 30 for 200 yards and a touchdown last week, will find life much harder without Bush exploding for a huge game and with Revis and Antonio Cromartie covering his crappy receivers instead of Patrick Lee and Shawntae Spencer.

Still, the Dolphins are at home and they have a sneaky good defense and have dating back to last year, when they ranked 6th in scoring. Mark Sanchez is coming off a horrendous game (10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown) and if he continues to struggle, the Dolphins could win a close one at home. In won’t help that he’ll be without starting tight end Dustin Keller, his leading receiver in 2011, once again in this one. The Jets are also in a dreaded breather game situation as favorites before being underdogs and after losing as underdogs. Teams in that situation are 49-77 ATS since 2008. The Jets play the 49ers next week. The Jets should be on upset alert.

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