Quarterback

The Lions finished the 2024 season with a 15-2 record, the best record in the NFC, and ranked 6th and 2nd respectively in yards per play differential and first down rate differential. They lost at home to the Commanders in the divisional round of the playoffs, but that looked like a fluke more than anything, as they won the first down rate battle by 7.95% and the yards per play battle by 1.07, only losing the game because they lost the turnover battle by 5, even though they had a signicantly better turnover margin than Washington in the regular season (+9 vs. +1).

The Lions did all that despite having significant injury issues, particularly on defense. While their offense actually had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury, their defense had the most, leading to the Lions as a team having the 8th most adjusted games lost in the league. Their defense was not nearly as good as their offense, ranking 28th in yards per play allowed and 26th in first down rate allowed, but that’s in large part due to how much talent they were without for most of the season. 

Going into 2025, the Lions are highly unlikely to have anywhere near the same amount of injuries on defense, but they do have some significant concerns. For one, their offense is also unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago. On top of that, the Lions had a lot of losses this offense, both in terms of coaches and players. Both their offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn got head coaching jobs this off-season, forcing the Lions to promote internally to replace them, doing so from a limited group of assistants after both Johnson and Glenn brought some with them to their new teams. 

In terms of their player losses, their most significant ones came on their offensive line, which is a huge deal because that was the biggest strength of their offense last season. When you combine their offensive line losses, which I will get more into later, and the fact that this offense is unlikely to be as healthy, there is good reason to expect this offense to be significantly worse this season. This offense did rank second in both yards per play and first down rate last season, so they’re starting from a high base point, but if their offense declines significantly it will make it hard for this team to compete at the level they were competing at last season.

Jared Goff remains as their quarterback and is coming off of a career year, setting new career highs in QB rating (111.8), completion percentage (72.4%), yards per attempt (8.59), and passing touchdowns (37), but he has proven throughout his career that his level of play is highly dependent on having a lot of talent around him and on having great coaching supporting him. With the Lions’ offense taking significant hits in both of those areas this off-season, it stands to reason that Goff’s statistical production could decline significantly.

One area that Goff has been consistent in his career is his durability, as he’s only missed time with injury in two of nine seasons in the league. If he does miss time with injury this season, the Lions would likely turn to Hendon Hooker. Hooker has only thrown nine passes in his career, so he’s an unknown commodity, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2023 and could have been a second or even a first round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL late in his final collegiate season, so he has a lot of upside. 

Hooker could face competition for the backup job from free agent addition Kyle Allen, but Hooker is almost definitely considered the heavy favorite for the job, considering Allen has a career 82.3 QB rating in 19 starts in seven seasons in the league. The only way Allen would win the job would be if Hooker completely flopped in training camp. This is a solid quarterback room, but Goff probably won’t be as effective as he was a year ago, given the issues around him he will have that he didn’t have a year ago.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Lions’ offensive line is their position group that had the biggest losses this off-season. Last season, four of the Lions’ five offensive line starters finished with PFF grades above 77, but this off-season they lost two of those four, with right guard Kevin Zeitler (86.5 PFF grade in 16 starts) signing with the Titans and center Frank Ragnow (85.3 PFF grade in 16 starts) opting for an early retirement after years of nagging injuries.

To replace Zeitler at right guard, the Lions will turn to Christian Mahogany, who flashed potential as a rookie with a 81.6 PFF grade, but that came across just 75 snaps and he was only a 6th round pick, so he’s a major projection to a significant role and could easily struggle. Even if he doesn’t struggle, it seems highly unlikely he’ll be anywhere near as good as Zeitler was last season. At center, the Lions will likely turn to second round rookie Tate Rutledge, who also is highly unlikely to be anywhere near as good as Ragnow was last season.

Another option the Lions have if either of their young starters struggle is free agent addition Trystan Colon. Colon, who has experience at both guard and center, has only made 15 starts in five seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2020, but he has shown promise, finishing above 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, including a 71.0 PFF grade in 386 snaps (seven starts) in 2024. He’s a projection to a larger role, but, at the very least, he’s at least a good reserve option.

If Colon doesn’t beat out Mahogany or Rutledge for a starting role, he could potentially beat out left guard Graham Glasgow, who was the weak point of this offensive line last season. Glasgow has mostly been a solid player throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in six of nine seasons in the league (122 starts), but two of those three seasons below 60 have come in the past three seasons, including a 57.9 PFF grade in 16 starts last season, and he’s now going into his age 33 and could easily continue struggling. He did have a 75.1 PFF grade as recently as 2023, but it seems unlikely he will come close to playing at that level again in 2025, given his age.

Left tackle Taylor Decker is also getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season, which is an even bigger deal because, unlike Glasgow, he is coming off of a strong season, meaning it would be really noticeable if he declined significantly. Decker has finished above 70 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including seven straight and a 77.0 PFF grade in 14 starts in 2024, but his best days could easily be behind him at this point, which is yet another reason to expect this offensive line to be significantly worse than a year ago.

The Lions’ best offensive lineman by far is right tackle Penei Sewell. The 7th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Sewell has received PFF grades of 77.0, 80.6, 90.7, and 87.5 in four seasons in the league and, only in his age 25 season, he might not have even reached his peak yet. He looks likely to be one of the best offensive linemen in the league for years to come. He and Decker will be backed up by swing tackle Dan Skipper, who has made 11 starts over the past three seasons in that role, but who has mostly struggled with PFF grades of 43.9, 66.9, and 55.4, and who is now going into his age 31 season. Penei Sewell significantly elevates the overall grade of this offensive line by himself, but this group has gone from elite to merely above average this off-season, which is a big deal.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Lions’ receiving corps remains the same in 2025, but it stands to reason that they will be less productive if Jared Goff isn’t as productive as a result of having an inferior offensive line in front of him and inferior coaching supporting him. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the way in catches (115), yards (1,263), touchdowns (12) and targets (141) and averaged 2.29 yards per route run, good for 12th best in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. This is nothing new for St. Brown, who had a 106/1161/6 slash line on 146 targets with 2.40 yards per route run in 2022 and a 119/1515/10 slash line on 164 targets with 2.69 yards per route run in 2023. Still only in his age 26 season, St. Brown should remain a highly effective receiver in 2025, even if his production goes down slightly as a result of the offense in general declining.

St. Brown wasn’t the only 1000+ yard wide receiver on this team last season, as Jameson Williams posted a 58/1001/7 slash line on 91 targets in 15 games, while averaging 2.10 yards per route run, giving the Lions the only wide receiver duo in the league who both surpassed 1000 yards receiving. While St. Brown functioned as a reliable possession receiver, Williams was the deep threat, leading the team with 17 catches of 20+ yards. Williams is a one-year wonder in terms of producing at the level he produced last season, but he has always had the talent to do so.

Williams was selected 12th overall by the Lions in 2022, despite tearing his ACL late in his final collegiate season. If not for the injury, he would have been a top-10 or even top-5 pick. His recovery from that injury limited him to just 78 snaps as a rookie and then he was limited to 444 snaps in 12 games in his second season in the league by additional injuries, as well as a suspension, before breaking out in his third season in the league in 2024. Along with being a one-year wonder, Williams could regress alongside the rest of this offense in 2025, especially since Goff is unlikely to have as much time to throw downfield, given the decline of their offensive line, but he’s still only in his age 24 season, so there is a good chance he remains one of the best pure deep threat receivers in the league for years to come.

Williams breakout season in 2024 seemed to come at the expense of tight end Sam LaPorta, who went from 120 targets a second round rookie in 2023 to just 83 targets last season and, as a result, fell from a 86/889/10 slash line and 1.76 yards per route run to a 60/726/7 slash line and 1.61 yards per route run. LaPorta figures to remain third on the team in target share in 2025, but, as far as third options go, he is one of the better ones in the league. He also saw his yards per target increase from 7.41 to 8.75 with his smaller role and, while he could decline statistically along with the rest of this offense, he is also only going into his age 24 season and could offset some of that decline by taking another step forward himself. 

Running backs were also a big part of this passing offense last season, as the Lions ranked 6th with 21.2% of their targets going to running backs. Lead back Jahmyr Gibbs had 63 targets and turned them into a 52/517/4 slash line and 1.67 yards per route run, while backup running back David Montgomery was even more efficient, with a 36/341/0 slash line and 2.24 yards per route run on 38 targets. Among eligible running backs, Montgomery led the league in yards per route run, while Gibbs ranked 5th.

That was not out of character for Gibbs, who was a good receiving back in college and had a 52/316/1 slash line on 71 targets as a rookie in 2023, albeit with just 0.97 yards per route run, but Montgomery had never been a good receiving back until last season, averaging 1.00 yards per route run across his first five seasons in the league prior to 2024. Both should remain a big part of the passing game in 2025, perhaps even more so if Goff is under pressure more often and has to check down more frequently as a result, though they could regress in terms of efficiency along with the rest of this offense, especially Montgomery, who is a one-year wonder in terms of producing at the level he produced at as a receiver last season.

With the Lions’ top-2 wide receivers, their top tight end, and their top-2 running backs all highly involved in the passing game, there isn’t much need for the Lions’ other pass catching options to have a role unless injuries strike. Tim Patrick was the de facto #3 wide receiver last season, but he only had 44 targets in 16 games, taking them for a 33/394/3 slash line and 1.15 yards per route run. Patrick showed some promise earlier in his career, with slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 on 1.71 yards per route run and 1.48 yards per route run in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but then he missed all of 2022 and 2023 with two separate leg injuries, before returning in 2024 and not being quite the same. Now going into his age 32 season, he could decline further in 2025, but luckily it’s unlikely the Lions will need him for a big role.

De facto #4 wide receiver Kalif Raymond also played a limited role last season (22 targets) and also is getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season. Raymond averaged 1.68 yards per route run last season and has averaged 1.67 yards per route run in his career, albeit mostly in part-time roles, with a maximum of 71 targets in a season. Raymond’s age is a concern, as is Patrick’s, but neither of them are likely to have to play a significant role and the Lions planned for the future by using a 3rd round pick on Isaac TeSlaa, who will probably begin his rookie year as the 5th receiver, but who could play his way into a situational role by the end of the season.

Behind LaPorta at tight end, Brock Wright remains and will continue being a blocking specialist who rarely is targeted in the passing game, with just 71 targets in four seasons in the league, including 16 last season. Wright has averaged just 0.93 yards per route run in his career and is not a particularly good blocker either, leading to him finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons, but the Lions don’t have a good alternative. He will likely remain below average in 2025, albeit in a small, largely insignificant role. This is a deep and talented receiving corps overall.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Lions running game was also very effective last season, ranking 3rd in the NFL in carries (534), 6th in rushing yards (2,488), 9th in yards per carry (4.66), and 2nd in rushing touchdowns (29), though it stands to reason they could be less effective this season due to the decline of their offensive line. Jahmyr Gibbs led the way with 250 carries, but he and Montgomery were almost identical in carry totals until Montgomery missed the final three games of the season with injury, as Gibbs had 186 through 14 games, while Montgomery had 185. Durability has been a bit of an issue for Montgomery in his career, as he’s missed time in every season except his rookie season in 2019, with 12 games missed in six seasons in the league, while Gibbs has only missed two games in two seasons in the league, but while both backs are healthy, I expect a pretty even split again in 2025.

Gibbs was significantly better than Montgomery in terms of yards per carry last season, at 5.65 vs. 4.19 for Montgomery, but Montgomery actually had the higher carry success rate, ranking 5th in the league among running backs at 55.1%, while Gibbs ranked 9th at 53.6%. A similar thing happened in 2023 when Gibbs averaged 5.19 YPC to Montgomery’s 4.63, but Gibbs had just a 46.7% carry success rate to Montgomery’s 54.8%. The reason for that is that Gibbs is more of a homerun hitter, with 15 carries of 15+ yards as a rookie and 25 carries of 15+ yards last season, while Montgomery is more of a short yardage power back and had just 6 carries of 15+ yards and 5 carries of 15+ yards over the past two seasons respectively. 

Gibbs is younger, only going into his age 23 season, while Montgomery is going into his age 28 season, and Gibbs is more talented, as a 2023 first round pick, so he definitely has a higher upside, but it’s likely we will continue seeing Montgomery have a higher carry success rate, while Gibbs has a significantly higher yards per carry average, though both could see their efficiency drop across the board, given the likely decline on the Lions’ offensive line.

With Gibbs and Montgomery leading the way, the Lions have very little need for any of their other backs. Even with Montgomery missing three games last season, all other Lions running backs combined for just 47 carries last season, as Gibbs just took over as the feature back in Montgomery’s absence, which Montgomery would do if Gibbs missed time. Craig Reynolds averaged 4.48 YPC on 31 carries as the #3 back last season and has averaged 4.33 YPC on 151 carries in six seasons in the league. He could face competition for the #3 role from 2024 4th round pick Sione Vaki, who only had six carries as a rookie, but who probably has a higher upside than Reynolds long-term. This is a very talented backfield, even if they aren’t quite as effective as they were a year ago, due to the offensive line’s decline.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Lions figure to be significantly healthier on defense this season than last season. By far their biggest re-addition is Aidan Hutchinson, who looked on his way to a Defensive Player of the Year award last season before a broken leg ended his season after five games. Prior to getting hurt, Hutchinson had a 94.9 PFF grade and had 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a ridiculous 22.7% pressure rate and, despite only playing five games, he still finished the season 34th among edge defenders in pressures. 

Hutchinson was on his way to the best season of his career last season before he got hurt, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 80.7 and 91.0 on snap counts of 953 and 986 respectively in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, while totaling 21 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 34 games. Hutchinson entered the league with a massive upside as the #2 overall pick and it wasn’t a surprise that Hutchinson was playing at such a dominant level in his third season in the league in 2024. Still only in his age 25 season, Hutchinson could easily continue playing at a Defensive Player of the Year caliber level in 2025, though his recovery from a major injury does complicate his projection a little bit. 

In Hutchinson’s absence last season, the Lions traded for Za’Darius Smith, who wasn’t as good as Hutchinson, but still played well, with a 71.2 PFF grade across 291 snaps in eight games, while totaling 4 sacks, 6 hits, and a 16.6% pressure rate in those games. The Lions released Smith for salary cap purposes this off-season though, meaning the Lions still have a questionable situation at the edge defender position opposite Hutchinson. Aside from Hutchinson and Smith, no Lions edge defender played more than 100 snaps and finished above 60 on PFF last season.

The Lions did bring back Marcus Davenport on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal and will hope for a healthier year from him after his 2024 season ended after 89 snaps in two games, but injuries have been a huge issue for Davenport throughout his career, so he will almost definitely miss more time, probably a significant amount, again in 2025. In seven seasons in the league, Davenport has missed 47 games and has never played more than 533 snaps or 15 games in a season. The past two seasons have been especially bad for him, as he’s been limited to 207 total snaps in six games. Davenport is only in his age 29 season and at least played well when healthy, with a 12.8% career pressure rate, but it’s very unlikely he’ll make it through the whole season healthy.

With Hutchinson and Davenport getting hurt and Smith not being added until mid-season, the Lions’ leading edge defender in terms of snaps played last season was Josh Paschal, who played 548 snaps. Paschal was a decent run stopper, but only had 2 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate and, overall, finished with just a 54.5 PFF grade. That’s in line with how he’s played in his career, since being selected in the 2nd round in 2022. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and could have some untapped upside, but most likely he will continue playing at the same level. He will start the season as a reserve, but he’ll probably end up having to start multiple games, given Davenport’s injury history, and, even as a reserve, he figures to have a significant role. 

Other reserve options include Al-Quadin Muhammad and Trevor Nowakse, who played 254 snaps and 332 snaps respectively last season. Muhammad was a solid rotational player in his prime, finishing above 60 on PFF in four straight seasons from 2018-2021, on an average of 569 snaps per season, but he fell to a 53.9 PFF grade on 609 snaps in 2022, spent 2023 on a practice squad, and then had a 60.0 PFF grade last season after being signed as an injury replacement mid-season. He’s now going into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Nowaske, meanwhile, is a 2023 undrafted free agent who struggled with a 52.1 PFF grade in the first action of his career last season. Both are underwhelming options, even as reserves. This position group is significantly elevated by the return of Aidan Hutchinson, who should be on the short list for Defensive Player of the Year, but the rest of the group is a concern.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Another key defensive lineman coming off of an injury is interior defender Alim McNeill, who tore his ACL last season, although he tore it in week 15, so there is a good chance he isn’t quite ready for the start of the season. In fact, there is a chance, even if McNeill doesn’t suffer any additional injuries, that he still won’t play as many games in 2025 as he did in 2024, when he played 631 snaps in 14 games before getting hurt. 

McNeill also might not play at quite the same level immediately upon his return as he did before the injury, which is a shame because he had developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league before getting hurt, finishing the 2023 season ranked 6th among interior defenders with a 88.5 PFF grade and finishing the 2024 season ranked 11th with a 79.6 PFF grade. Also a solid run defender, McNeill excelled as a pass rusher over the past two seasons, with 8.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 27 games. McNeill is still only going into his age 25, so if he can return to form after his injury, he still has a very bright future, but there is a good chance he doesn’t give the Lions as much in 2025 as he did in 2024, both in terms of quality and quantity.

DJ Reader (507 snaps) and Levi Onwuzurike (635 snaps) also played significant roles on this defense last season and will continue doing so in 2025. Both had solid seasons with PFF grades of 65.4 and 69.4 respectively. For Onwuzurike, last season was a career best, but it didn’t come out of nowhere. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Onwuzurike’s career got off to a slow start, as he had a 43.2 PFF grade across 396 snaps as a rookie in 2021 and then missed all of 2022 with injury, but he seemed to turn a corner in 2023 with a 68.1 PFF grade, albeit across 132 snaps, before continuing to play at a similar level across a much larger snap count in 2024, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, with 1.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate. He’s technically a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season over the snap count he had, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continued playing at that level in 2025. 

Reader, meanwhile, had a career worst year in 2024, and previously he had finished above 70 on PFF in six of the previous seven seasons, including a 82.2 PFF grade on 535 snaps as recently as 2023, but he’s now heading into his age 31 season, so he won’t necessarily bounce back in 2025 and could easily continue declining. To try to offset some of his potential decline, the Lions used their first round pick on Tyleik Williams, a similar run defense first interior defender who looks like Reader’s long-term successor. He will have at least somewhat of a role as a rookie, though he will probably see fewer snaps than Reader and Onwuzurike. He adds to a deep position group overall.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Injuries also hit the Lions’ linebacking corps hard. Derrick Barnes and Malcolm Rodriguez had their seasons ended by injury after three games and nine games respectively, while Alex Anzalone missed seven games as well. In their absences, Jack Campbell broke out as an every down player, with a 77.4 PFF grade across 973 snaps. Campbell was a first round pick in 2023, so he’s always had talent, but he struggled with a 57.3 PFF grade across 637 snaps as a rookie. He’s technically a one-year wonder, but could easily keep playing at the same level in 2025, or potentially even better. Even with Barnes, Rodriguez, and Anzalone still on the roster, Campbell should keep his every down job. 

Rodriguez started last season as a reserve, only becoming a starter when others got hurt, and he might not be ready for the start of the season due to injury anyway, leaving Barnes and Anzalone to compete for the other starting job, with the loser of that battle being a situational base package run stopper and the top reserve. Anzalone has been an every down player for the past three seasons, averaging 62.5 snaps per game across 43 games, but he’s only been a decent every down player, with PFF grades of 59.2, 68.1, and 67.8 over those three seasons and he’s now going into his age 31 season, so it’s possible Barnes gives the Lions a higher upside going forward. 

Barnes has only played snap counts of 346, 704, and 120 over the past three seasons, but he has PFF grades of 62.3, 62.1, and 71.8 and the 2021 4th round pick is only going into his age 26 season. Anzalone is probably still the favorite to keep an every down role, but that’s not a guarantee. Rodriguez, meanwhile, will be a reserve whenever he is healthy enough to return. Also going into his age 26 season, the 2022 6th round pick has PFF grades of 62.8, 51.7, and 74.4 on snap counts of 611, 120, and 318 in his three seasons in the league. He makes this an already deep linebacking corps even deeper when everyone is healthy.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The safety position was probably the biggest position of strength for the Lions on defense last season, as Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch ranked 1st and 11th among safeties on PFF with grades of 91.0 and 77.6 respectively. For Branch, his strong season was very predictable, as the 2023 2nd round pick also had a 78.1 PFF grade as a rookie. Still only going into his age 24 season, Branch could easily have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2025.

For Joseph, last year’s dominant campaign kind of came out of nowhere, as the 2022 3rd round pick received PFF grades of just 64.0 and 57.7 in his first two seasons in the league. It’s very possible that Joseph has permanently turned a corner and will remain a high level safety, still only in his age 25 season, but it’s also very likely that his performance last season will prove to be somewhat of a fluke and that he will be noticeably worse in 2025, even if he remains one of the best safeties in the league.

While Joseph and Branch are arguably the best safety duo in the league, depth behind them is somewhat of a concern if either player misses time with injury. Other than Joseph and Branch, the only other safeties on the roster who were drafted or who have ever played a defensive snap are Morice Norris, a 2024 undrafted free agent who played just one defensive snap as a rookie, and 7th round rookie Dan Jackson, both of whom would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action in 2025.

At cornerback, the Lions didn’t bring back Carlton Davis, who was their best player at the position last season, finishing with a 74.5 PFF grade, but he also missed four games due to injury and the Lions replaced him with a comparable player in DJ Reed, who had a 70.7 PFF grade last season. That was actually Reed’s worst single season grade since his rookie season in 2018, though it wasn’t totally out of character, as his career best PFF grade was 78.6 in 2021. A highly consistent player, Reed should continue playing at a similar level in 2025 to how he’s played for the last six seasons, still only in his age 29 season.

Amik Robertson was their second best cornerback last season, with a 64.5 PFF grade across 628 snaps, but he’s a low upside slot specialist, receiving PFF grades of 64.1 and 63.4 on snap counts of 674 and 677 in 2022 and 2023 as well. This season, the Lions are hoping their other starting outside cornerback Terrion Arnold can take a step forward and be their second best cornerback. Arnold struggled last season with a 51.5 PFF grade across 947 snaps, but he was only a rookie and the 2024 1st round pick still has a huge upside, only going into his age 22 season.

The Lions also used a second round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a cornerback, taking Ennis Rakestraw, who also had a disappointing rookie season, playing just 46 snaps and receiving a 42.8 PFF grade. Now going into his second season in the league, the Lions are hoping he can at least lock down the #4 cornerback job and be their top reserve, but that’s not necessarily a guarantee. He’ll face competition for that role from veteran free agent addition Avonte Maddox.

Maddox had PFF grades of 72.8 and 71.3 in 2021 and 2022, but he was limited to 10 games by injury in 2022, and then four games by injury in 2023, and then he struggled in a reserve role in 2024 upon his return, with a 56.3 PFF grade across 345 snaps. Maddox is still only going into his age 29 season, but he’s two years removed from his last solid season, which is why he had to settle for backup work this off-season. Still, as far as backup options go, he’s a pretty good one. The Lions are obviously much better at safety than cornerback, but their cornerback room has a good chance to be better this season if Reed can stay healthier than Davis and Arnold can take a step forward in his second season in the league. Overall, this is an above average secondary.

Grade: B+

Kicker

The Lions signed 2023 undrafted free agent Jake Bates to compete to be their kicker last off-season, after one year in the UFL, and the move paid off, as Bates ranked 9th in the NFL last season with 5.97 points above average. Bates made 26 of 29 field goals, including 13 of 16 from 40+ yards, 6 of 8 from 50+ yards, and all 13 from inside 40, though he did miss three extra points. Bates has only played one year, but he has a good chance to be an above average kicker for years to come. 

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Lions’ offense should take a big step back this season, given that their offensive line should decline and that they are unlikely to be as healthy on offense as they were a year ago, but they are starting from such a high base point that they should still be an effective unit. Meanwhile, their defense has a chance to take a big step forward this season, given that they are highly unlikely to have as many injury problems as a year ago. The loss of so many coaches this off-season is a concern, but overall on paper this still looks like one of the top few teams in the league.

Prediction: 12-5, 2nd in NFC North

Quarterback

Three years ago, the Lions kicked off a multi-year rebuilding process by trading away long-time franchise quarterback Matt Stafford to the Rams. The Lions had compiled just a 14-33-1 record over the previous three seasons with no playoff victories in Stafford’s 12-year tenure with the team and, with Stafford heading into his age 33 season in 2021, he demanded a trade, a request the Lions were willing to oblige, in need of a different direction as a team. The Lions could have traded Stafford for a top-10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and tried to shorten the rebuilding process, but instead they took a pair of first round picks from the Rams in 2022 and 2023, a 2021 3rd round pick, and former Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who had fallen out of favor with his old team.

Goff is 6 years younger than Stafford, but he was expected to be a downgrade under center, the 51.8 million guaranteed he was owed in the next two seasons was actually more than the 43 million that Stafford’s contract was set to pay him over those two seasons and, ultimately, most viewed Goff as a stopgap solution under center, rather than a long-term solution. Goff completed 63.4% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 107 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions in 69 starts in five seasons with the Rams, who selected him #1 overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, but the success he had was considered a product of the offensive system and talent he had around him with the Rams.

In Goff’s first season in Detroit, he predictably struggled on a team with much less talent around the quarterback and an inferior coaching staff, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of just 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for a Lions team that went just 3-13-1. However, the Lions got a new offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson for the 2022 season, which proved to be a huge upgrade, and they rapidly improved the rest of their roster, mostly through strong drafts. 

Their offense took a big step forward first, leading to the Lions improving to 9-8 in 2022, with Goff completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, and then the defense followed with a big step forward of their own in 2023, leading to the Lions finishing with a 12-5 record and making the NFC Championship, their first 12+ win season and their first NFC Championship appearance since 1991. Goff finished the 2023 season with a 67.3% completion percentage, 7.56 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on a team that finished 7th in total DVOA, 5th in offensive DVOA, and 13th in defensive DVOA.

In 2024, the Lions are mostly running it back. They brought back their top-7 and 14 of their top-16 in terms of offensive snaps played, as well as 10 of their top-14 in terms of defensive snaps played. However, their championship window might be smaller than most realize. Many of their talented young players will be up for extensions in the next couple off-seasons and it will be tough for the Lions to pay everyone, especially since they had to give quarterback Jared Goff a massive 4-year, 212 million dollar extension this off-season, making him the second highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary, ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract in 2024. 

Goff’s cap hit doesn’t explode right away, but it soon will and it will be tough for the Lions to keep the amount of talent around him that Goff will need for this team to be competitive at the highest level. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Goff is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league. The Lions should remain one of the best teams in the league in 2024, but if they can’t win it all this season, they might find their Super Bowl window will close faster than anticipated. 

Injuries have never been a big concern for Goff, as he’s missed just 4 games due to injury in 8 seasons in the league, but if he happens to miss time, the Lions would likely turn to Hendon Hooker, who was drafted in the 3rd round in the 2023 NFL Draft. Hooker has never thrown a regular season pass in his career, after missing most of his rookie season rehabbing from a torn ACL that he suffered in his final collegiate season, but Hooker could have been a second, or even a first round pick he had not suffered that injury and, if he makes a full recovery, he could easily develop into one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. That’s far from a guarantee and he would still probably be a noticeable downgrade from Goff if he was forced into action, but this is still a better backup quarterback situation than the majority of teams in the league.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One of the key young additions the Lions have added in their recent drafts is Penei Sewell, who they drafted 7th overall in 2021. Sewell showed promise with a 77.0 PFF grade as a rookie, splitting time between right tackle and left tackle, filling in for an injured Taylor Decker, and then he broke out in years two and three, once becoming a full-time right tackle opposite Decker, receiving PFF grades of 80.6 and 90.7 respectively over the past two seasons. 

Still only in his age 24 season, it’s possible Sewell could continue getting even better going forward and, even if he doesn’t, he seems likely to be one of the best offensive linemen in the league for years to come. The Lions paid handsomely to keep him on a long-term extension this off-season, making him the highest paid offensive lineman in the league in terms of average annual salary on a 4-year, 112 million dollar deal that was added on to the final two years of his rookie deal, but Sewell should prove to be well worth that contract and is the type of player you can’t let get away.

Taylor Decker will continue starting opposite Sewell at the left tackle spot. Also a former first round pick, back in 2016, Decker has manned that spot since his rookie year and has done well there, making 112 total starts in his career and finishing above 70 on PFF in seven of eight seasons, including six straight seasons and a 77.3 PFF grade in 2023. Decker now enters his age 30 season, but hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off a little, he should remain at least an above average starter. 

Center Frank Ragnow is also a former first round pick who plays at a high level, as the 2018 1st round pick has made 80 starts in six seasons in the league and has finished above 70 on PFF in five straight seasons, including three seasons over 80 and a career best 88.1 in 2023, good for 1st best among centers on PFF. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as his career best year from 2023.

The Lions weren’t quite as soon at guard last season, as compared to tackle and center, but they still got mostly solid play at those spots, with Graham Glasgow (15 starts), Jonah Jackson (12 starts), and Halapoulivaati Vaitai (3 starts) receiving grades of 75.1, 59.7, and 68.3 respectively from PFF. Jackson and Vaitai weren’t retained this off-season, but Glasgow was re-signed to a 3-year, 20 million dollar deal to start at one guard spot, while free agent signing Kevin Zeitler will start at the other, after signing for 6 million on a 1-year deal this off-season.

Glasgow has made 106 starts in eight seasons in the league since going in the third round in 2016 and has mostly been a solid starter, but last season was actually the best season of his career in terms of PFF grade and, now heading into his age 32 season, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career for the second straight season. He has finished above 60 on PFF in six of the last seven seasons, including four seasons over 70, so he could remain a solid starter even if he isn’t as good as he was a year ago, but he also had a 59.3 grade as recently as 2022 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined significantly from a year ago, especially when you consider his age.

Zeitler’s age is also a concern, as he now heads into his age 34 season and just had the second worst full season grade of his 12-year career (181 starts) in 2023, but he still had a 69.3 PFF grade and, even if he does decline further, he could still be a solid starter for the Lions. In his prime, Zeitler was one of the best guards in the league, with PFF grades over 70 in ten of his twelve seasons, including a 74.0 PFF grade as recently as 2022, and three seasons over 80, so even at less than his best, he should still be a worthwhile signing for the Lions, unless his abilities happen to completely fall off a cliff.

Depth is a concern for this group. Last year they had six starting caliber offensive linemen going into the season, but with Jackson and Vaitai both gone and only Zeitler being added, their depth is pretty suspect now. At guard Kayode Awosika (252 snaps) and Colby Sordal (253 snaps) both struggled in limited action last season. Sordal was only a 5th round rookie and could be better in year two, but he could still struggle even if he improves, while Awosika went undrafted in 2021 and has mostly struggled across 450 career snaps. At center, the Lions don’t have any reserves who were drafted in this year’s draft or who have ever played an offensive snap in the NFL, though they would probably slide Glasgow inside to center, where he has experience, and start either Awosika or Sordal in Glasgow’s spot at guard, in case of a Glasgow injury. Still, their lack of depth at both guard and center is a concern. 

Meanwhile at tackle, Dan Skipper will probably remain their swing tackle and he was decent on 101 snaps last season (66.9 PFF grade), but the 2017 undrafted free agent is already in his age 30 and has played just 546 career snaps (6 starts), with his career high 387 snaps coming in a 2022 campaign in which he received a 43.9 grade from PFF, so he’s a very underwhelming swing tackle option. The Lions did use a 4th round pick on Giovanni Manu to compete for the swing tackle job, but he would probably struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time in case of injury. The Lions still have arguably the best starting five offensive line in the league, but their lack of depth can’t go unmentioned. 

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Part of the reason for the Lions being able to quickly rebuild through the draft was the extra draft capital the Lions got from the Rams in the Stafford trade, including a pair of first round picks, but the Lions have also found steals outside of the first round, which has been more important to their quick rebuild. Probably the biggest of those steals was 2021 5th round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown immediately exceeded his draft slot with a 90/912/5 slash line and a 1.74 yards per route run average as a rookie and he’s only gotten better since then, with a 106/1161/6 slash line and a 2.40 yards per route run average in 2022 and a 119/1515/10 slash line and a 2.63 yards per route run average last season, when he also finished 7th among wide receivers on PFF with a 90.6 overall grade. 

Still only in his age 25 season, St. Brown is just now entering his prime and should be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. Going into the final year of his rookie deal in 2024, St. Brown wasn’t cheap to extend, receiving a 4-year, 120 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the third highest paid wide receiver in the league in average annual salary, but he should prove to be well worth that contract.

The Lions also found tight end Sam LaPorta in the second round of last year’s draft and he immediately broke out as one of the best tight ends in the league, ranking 5th among tight ends in receiving yardage with a 86/889/10 slash line, 6th in yards per route run with 1.76, and 5th among tight ends with a 76.5 overall grade from PFF. All that is even more impressive when you consider that tight ends, including some of the best in the league, almost always take at least a year to develop into useful pass catchers. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him be even better in year two in 2024. With three years left of cheap team control, LaPorta should remain a very talented complementary pass catcher behind St. Brown for years to come.

Ironically, the one receiver the Lions did use a first round pick on, Jameson Williams, has not come close to living up to the billing yet. The Lions knew they wouldn’t get much out of Williams in year one when he took him 12th overall in 2022 just a few months removed from a torn ACL, but Williams played just 78 rookie year snaps and then missed another five games in 2023 due to suspension and injury and he didn’t play all that well even when on the field, managing just a 1.47 yards per route run average and a 24/354/2 slash line. Williams is still only in his age 23 season and had the talent to be a top-5 pick before his injury, so I wouldn’t give up on him taking a step forward, possibly even a big one, in year three, but he’s been a big disappointment thus far in his career, even with the caveat that the Lions knew he’d miss most of his rookie year when they drafted him.

Williams will at least get a lot of opportunity for playing time and targets in this receiving corps, as the Lions are very thin behind St. Brown and LaPorta, who should both continue getting huge target shares. Josh Reynolds was third on the team in receiving with a 40/608/5 slash line in 2023, but he wasn’t retained this off-season and the Lions didn’t do anything to replace him, instead banking on Williams taking a step forward. Behind St. Brown and Williams at wide receiver, the Lions’ two best options are probably Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Raymond was third among Lions receivers with a 35/489/1 slash line last season, and also had slash lines of 48/576/4 and 47/616/0 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but he’s never exceeded those receiving totals in eight years in the league and that’s unlikely to start in 2024, now his age 30 season. Peoples-Jones had a 61/839/3 slash line in 2022 for the Browns, but was not that efficient with a 1.46 yards per route run average and took a back seat in the passing game in Cleveland in 2023, before getting sent to Detroit in a mid-season trade and continuing to contribute very little, finishing the year with a 13/155/0 slash line and 0.60 yards per route run average between the two teams. Peoples-Jones is at least young, only in his age 25 season, but the 2020 6th round pick has averaged just 1.38 yards per route run for his career and doesn’t have the talent to develop into much more than he’s been throughout his career.

At tight end, the Lions retained top backup Brock Wright on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal, matching the contract the 2021 undrafted free agent received from the 49ers in restricted free agency this off-season. He has just 43 career catches and a 1.08 yards per route run average, so he won’t contribute much in the passing game, but he’s at least a solid blocker and you could do a lot worse than him as your #2 tight end. St. Brown and LaPorta highlight a very top heavy receiving corps, but Jameson Williams at least has upside as the 3rd receiving option, while Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones aren’t bad even if they’re underwhelming.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Lions also have used a first round pick on a running back recently, taking Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. It was a controversial decision because the Lions had just given a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal to veteran running back David Montgomery in free agency and because running backs taken in the first round are rarely worth it, but the Lions are a run heavy team that had enough opportunity for both Montgomery and Gibbs and they also had a lot of young talent on both sides of the field and could avoid to take a luxury position like running back.

Gibbs’ rookie season started off slow, as he had just 13.3 touches per game (9.8 carries, 3.5 catches) in his first 4 games, but he took over a bigger role when Montgomery missed 3 games with injury, averaging 22.7 touches (17.0 carries, 5.7 catches) in those 3 games and then he continued having a bigger role even after Montgomery returned, averaging 14.4 touches per game (11.7 carries, 2.7 catches) in the final 9 games of the season, while Montgomery averaged 15.0 touches per game (13.9 carries, 1.1 catches). If you look just at those final 9 games, Gibbs produced at a level that extrapolates over 17 games to 200 carries for 1,031 yards and 15 touchdowns (5.15 YPC), with a 45/285/2 slash line as a receiver, while Montgomery produced at a level that extrapolates over 17 games to 236 carries for 1190 yards and 13 touchdowns (5.04 YPC), with a 19/96/0 slash line as a receiver,

Montgomery only averaged 3.94 YPC on 915 carries in four seasons with the Bears before joining the Lions last season, but Montgomery was on some bad offenses with bad blocking in Chicago, so it’s not that surprising that he’s been significantly better in a better situation in Detroit, finishing his first season in Detroit with a 4.63 YPC average. However, Gibbs averaged 5.19 YPC on the season and is a much more talented running back. Going into 2024 and Gibbs’ second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gibbs get an even bigger share of the running back touches, but the Lions ranked 7th in the league in carries last season and should wind up around there again this season, so there will be plenty of opportunity for both running backs.

The area Gibbs struggled the most in as a rookie was in the passing game, ironic considering that was expected to be his biggest strength. His 52/316/1 slash line looks good, but he only averaged 0.97 yards per route run and 4.45 yards per target, so he wasn’t that efficient with his opportunity. He has a good chance to be significantly more efficient in that aspect in year two though and he’s still the better of the Lions’ top-2 backs in the passing game, with Montgomery averaging 0.72 yards per route run and 4.88 yards per target a year ago and 1.00 yards per route run and 6.22 yards per target for his career. 

Behind Gibbs and Montgomery, the Lions have Craig Reynolds, who had 41 carries for 179 yards (4.37 YPC) and 5 catches for 47 yards last season, mostly as an injury replacement when Gibbs or Montgomery missed time. Reynolds only has 142 touches in five seasons in the league, with but all two of those coming in the past three seasons, but he has a decent 4.29 YPC average and is better than a lot of #3 backs. Still, the run heavy Lions decided to use a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Sione Vaki, who could end up beating out Reynolds for that #3 back job in a very deep running back group.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

After the Lions went 3-13-1 in the first year of their rebuild, they received the #2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and used it on edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who has been a big part of their improvement in recent years, proving to be more than worth where he was selected. As a rookie, Hutchinson finished with 9.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, while excelling against the run, and received a 80.7 PFF overall grade. In year two, Hutchinson got even better, finishing with 11.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate, while ranking 9th among edge defenders in overall PFF grade with 91.0, despite almost never coming off the field, playing 986 of a possible 1,090 defensive snaps, 90.5% and 3rd most in the league among edge defenders. Still only in his age 24 season, the sky’s the limit for Hutchinson, who should remain one of the top players at his position for years to come.

Aside from Hutchinson, the Lions didn’t have another edge defender play more than 400 snaps for them last season. Josh Paschal (399 snaps), Charles Harris (291 snaps), and Romeo Okwara (249 snaps) ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the team in snaps played among pure edge defenders, while John Cominsky (566 snaps) split time between the edge and the interior. The Lions are hoping that will change this season with the addition of Marcus Davenport in free agency on a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal.

Davenport was a first round pick in 2018 and has shown that level of talent when healthy, totaling a 12.9% pressure rate for his career, while finishing above 70 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including two seasons over 80. However, he’s also never played more than 533 snaps in a season due to injury, while missing 32 games in six seasons in the league. Davenport is still only in his age 28 season and could be an above average starter for the Lions if healthy, something they lacked opposite Hutchinson a year ago, but he’s also likely to miss more time at some point, which is why he had to settle for a 1-year deal in free agency.

Harris and Okwara weren’t retained this off-season, but the Lions still have Josh Paschal and are expecting him to play a big role as a reserve. His 399 snaps last season came in just 12 games, with 5 games missed due to injury, and he was a 2nd round pick in 2022 who still has untapped potential. He hasn’t shown much as a pass rusher in two seasons in the league, totaling just 3 sacks, 3 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 22 games, but he’s at least been a solid run stuffer in limited action and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward as a pass rusher in year three, especially if he can stay healthier than he’s been (12 games missed in two seasons in the league).

The Lions are also hoping for more out of another third year edge defender, James Houston, who was limited to 31 snaps in two games due to injury last season. Houston was only a 6th round pick in 2022 and played just 140 snaps as a rookie, but he made the most of them, excelling as a situational pass rusher with 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 18.5% pressure rate, while receiving a 80.2 overall grade from PFF. It’s a very small sample size and Houston is still a relatively unproven player who was not a high draft pick, but, at the very least, the Lions should get more out of him in 2024 than they did in his injury plagued 2023 season. 

John Cominsky will also continue seeing some snaps on the edge like he did a year ago, but he’s mostly just a run stuffer as an edge defender, with a 7.7% pressure rate in 2023 and a 9.4% pressure rate for his career (57 games in five seasons). There are question marks in this group behind Hutchinson, but they at least have upside if Davenport can stay healthy and Paschal and Houston can progress in year three, and Hutchinson is one of the best players in the league at his position, so he elevates this group significantly by himself.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Lions have also drafted a talented interior defender in recent years, taking Alim McNeill in the 3rd round in the 2021 NFL Draft. McNeill took a couple years to develop into the player he was in 2023, but he still had solid grades of 60.1 and 69.8 from PFF on snap counts of 422 and 779 respectively in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 88.5 PFF grade on 559 snaps in 13 games last season, making him PFF’s 6th highest ranked interior defender.

McNeill totaled 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher last season and was equally good as a run stopper. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s also still only in his age 24 season and could easily continue being one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come and, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, he could make up for it by being healthier than he was in 2023, when he missed four games.

The rest of this interior defender group was underwhelming a year ago, but the Lions hope they fixed that by signing DJ Reader from the Bengals to a 2-year, 22 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season. Reader has been one of the best run stopping interior defenders in the league in recent years, finishing above 70 on PFF in run defense grade in 6 of the past 7 seasons, with the exception being a a 2020 campaign in which he was limited to just 5 games by injury and still had a 69.3 PFF grade against the run. 

The big 6-3 335 pound Reader only has 9.5 sacks in 106 career games, but he’s a better pass rusher than that suggests, as he also has 38 hits and a 8.4% pressure rate in his career. Durability has been a concern for him in recent years, costing him 22 games in the past four seasons combined, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline, but he should still be a massive upgrade over Benito Jones, who had a 37.4 PFF grade on 566 snaps last season and was subsequently not retained as a free agent this off-season.

Behind McNeill and Reader, the Lions have John Cominsky, a hybrid player who I talked about in the edge defender section, as well as a pair of young players they are hoping for more out of this year, Levi Onwuzurike and Brodric Martin. Onwuzurike was a 2nd round pick in 2021, but disappointed with a 43.2 PFF grade on 396 snaps as a rookie and then missed the entire 2022 season due to injury, before being limited to 132 snaps in 10 games last season by more injuries. 

Onwuzurike did play significantly better than last season than he did as a rookie though, with a 68.1 PFF grade. Durability is still a concern, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a useful reserve/rotational player as long as he’s healthy, now in his fourth season in the league. Martin, meanwhile, spent his entire 2023 season as a healthy scratch, despite being a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. His career obviously isn’t off to a good start, but he came into the league with a lot of talent and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him develop into a useful reserve in 2024. At the very least, he’ll give them more by default than he did a year ago. With the addition of DJ Reader as a starter opposite Alim McNeill, this is a talented position group, even if their depth is unproven.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Lions used one of their two first round picks in last year’s draft to take linebacker Jack Campbell, which has not been one of their better selections. The value of taking Campbell, who many projected to only be a base package run stopper, in the first round was questioned from the start and those questions haven’t gone away after Campbell finished his rookie season with a 57.3 PFF grade on 637 snaps. Campbell played well against the run with a 75.9 run defense grade from PFF, but he struggled mightily in coverage with a 43.9 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two, but he’ll still probably be a liability in coverage and for a non-rush linebacker to be worth a first round pick in the modern NFL, they have to develop into a well-rounded player who is not a liability in any situation.

Campbell actually finished third among Lions linebackers in snaps played last season. Alex Anzalone led the way with 1,005 snaps. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Anzalone was a big durability concern early in his career in New Orleans, as he missed 26 of a possible 64 games in four seasons there, while maxing out at 525 snaps played in a season, and then in his first season in Detroit in 2021 he struggled mightily in by far the biggest snap count of his career, with a 35.4 PFF grade on 827 snaps, but he’s been better with PFF grades of 59.2 and 68.1 over the past two seasons, while surpassing 1,000 snaps played in both seasons and mostly avoiding injuries. Anzalone is now going into his age 30 season and could either start declining in 2024 or see his role decreased in favor of the second year Campbell, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Anzalone be a capable every down linebacker for the second straight season.

The Lions also have Derrick Barnes, another young linebacker who could see a bigger snap count in 2024. A 4th round pick in 2021, Barnes struggled mightily with a 30.1 PFF grade on 448 snaps as a rookie, but he improved significantly with a 62.3 PFF grade on 346 snaps in his second season in the league in 2022 and carried that over to a bigger role in 2023, with a 62.1 PFF grade on 704 snaps. He’s an unspectacular player and probably won’t ever be anything more than an average starter, but this is an unspectacular Lions’ linebacking corps overall, so Barnes could be deserving of more playing time.

The Lions also have another young linebacker, Malcolm Rodriguez. He was only a 6th round pick in 2022, but wasn’t bad in a big rookie year role, with a 62.8 PFF grade on 611 snaps. With Campbell being added and Barnes taking over a bigger role, Rodriguez was relegated to a nondescript 120 snaps in 12 games played as a reserve last season, but he could earn his way into more playing time in year three. Given the at least decent promise he showed as a rookie, he’s at least a good reserve option. This is an unspectacular group overall, but they at least have some young talent with promise.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Lions have done a great job rebuilding this roster quickly, but the cornerback position was a position of weakness last season, Only one of the five cornerbacks who played more than 100 snaps for the Lions finished with a PFF grade above 60 and that player was Brian Branch, another talented young player the Lions have, a 2023 second round pick who received a 78.1 PFF grade on 736 snaps as a rookie, but a part-time cornerback who could see more time at safety in 2024. 

This off-season, the Lions made improving the cornerback position a priority, trading a third round pick to the Buccaneers for Carlton Davis, who is owed 14.5 million in the final year of his contract in 2024, and then using 1st and 2nd round picks on Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw, a pair of cornerbacks who were both considered good values at their draft slot. The Lions also parted ways with three of the four cornerbacks who saw significant action for them last season and struggled, with only Kindle Vildor (57.6 PFF grade on 200 snaps) returning as a deep reserve who isn’t guaranteed a roster spot. Davis and Arnold are currently expected to start outside, but Rakestraw could see a role as well, especially if Branch plays more safety in 2024.

The veteran Davis will probably be the Lions’ de facto #1 cornerback while Arnold and Rakestraw develop. Davis has been a solid starter for most of his career, but he fell to a 58.2 PFF grade last season, after surpassing 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league, including a career best 70.4 in 2019. Davis is only going into his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also suffered a lot of injuries throughout his career, never playing more than 14 games in a season and missing 23 games total in six seasons in the league, so it’s possible that his injuries have caught up with him and made him age quicker, in which case it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling in 2024. Even if he bounces back, he’ll almost definitely miss more time at some point this season. Still, it wouldn’t be hard for him and the Lions’ two rookie cornerbacks to be an upgrade over what the Lions had at the position a year ago.

The Lions also signed veteran Amik Robertson in free agency and could get something out of Emmanuel Moseley, who is coming off of two injury plagued seasons. Robertson had a much easier path to playing time before Arnold and Rakestraw were drafted, but the 2-year, 9.25 million dollar deal the Lions gave him suggests they value him at least decently, so he could still earn a role even with the two rookies being added, especially if Branch plays more safety this season or if Carlton Davis misses more time with injury. Capable of being on the slot and outside, Robertson has received decent grades of 64.1 and 63.4 from PFF on snap counts of 677 and 674 over the past two seasons respectively and the 2020 4th round pick is only in his age 26 season.

Moseley might be the odd man out in a suddenly deep position group. He flashed potential early in his career in San Francisco with PFF grades of 70.0, 58.3, 68.7, and 70.9 respectively in his first four seasons of playing time, but he never played more than 602 snaps in a season due to injury, while missing 22 games in those four seasons, including 12 games missed in his final season in San Francisco with a torn ACL. The Lions took a chance on him in free agency last off-season, only to see him tear his other ACL just two snaps into the season. Still only in his age 28 season, Moseley could have some bounce back potential if he’s healthy, but he’ll start the season at best as a deep reserve. It will likely be between him and Kindle Vildor, a 2020 5th round pick who has struggled throughout his career, for the last spot on the cornerback depth chart, a battle Moseley should be favored in.

The reason Brian Branch could play more safety in 2024 is because the Lions lost Tracy Walker (541 snaps) and CJ Gardner-Johnson (186 snaps) this off-season and didn’t replace them. The Lions still have Kerby Joseph (909 snaps) and Ifeatu Melifonwu (398 snaps) and both will compete for starting jobs, but Branch will probably see more action at this position as well. Kerby was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and has made 29 starts in 32 games in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.0 and 57.7 respectively. He hasn’t been more than a capable starter in two years in the league and he took a step back in year two, but he’s only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward to have his best season yet in 2024. Even if he doesn’t, he should be considered the favorite to keep his starting job.

Melifonwu was also a 3rd round pick, back in 2021. He’s only played 738 snaps total in three seasons in the league, so he doesn’t have the experience that Joseph has, but he flashed a lot of potential with a 85.6 PFF grade in 6 starts as an injury replacement in 2023 and, even if Branch plays more safety this season, Melifonwu could still earn an expanded role in 2024. Melifonwu is a projection to a larger role and was mediocre in his first two seasons before showing his potential last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him be at least a capable sub package player. The Lions’ secondary was a bit of a weakness last season, especially at cornerback, but this is a much deeper group than a year ago, even if they lack top end talent besides of Brian Branch.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Lions’ championship window might be closing soon, as it will be tough for them to keep all their talent under the cap long-term, but they are very much in the mix as contenders in 2023, with one of the best rosters in the league. Already one of the best teams in the league a year ago, the Lions are arguably better this season due to off-season additions like DJ Reader, Marcus Davenport, and Carlton Davis, among others. In terms of average annual value of their roster, a stat that heavily correlates with winning percentage, the Lions rank 4th, up from 23rd a year ago. That kind of spending isn’t sustainable long-term, but it should put them on the short list for Super Bowl contenders in 2024, especially since they play in the much weaker NFC.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC North