Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at Detroit Lions (5-4)

After a busy off-season in which the Jaguars had among the most cap space in the NFL and spent accordingly, the Jaguars entered the season with high expectations and have had an incredibly disappointing season, falling to 2-7 last week with loss to the Houston Texans. Their last 2 losses have been especially painful, as they lost by 5 in Kansas City despite losing the turnover battle by 4 and then they last week they lost at home to the Texans by just 3 despite losing the turnover battle by 2. They’ve held the Chiefs and Texans to a combined 26 first downs and have accumulated 48 first downs of their own, but couldn’t win either game because of turnovers.

That’s been the case all season, as they rank 9th in first down rate differential, but have just 2 wins because of a league worst -14 turnover margin. Fortunately, turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. For example, teams that have a -4 turnover differential in a game on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week. Aside from turnovers, they’ve actually played pretty well this season and if we assume turnover neutral football going forward, they figure to have better luck winning some of these close games (4 losses by 5 points or fewer) and should win more games going forward, including possibly this game against the Lions.

Despite the fact that they’ve only had 3 losses by more than 5 points this season even with all of their turnover problems, the Jaguars are underdogs of 6.5 points at home this week in Detroit, far too many considering the Jaguars are significantly better than their record. The Lions, meanwhile, are not quite as good as their record suggests, as they enter this game 22nd in first down rate differential. All 9 of their games have been close and most could have gone either way; their biggest win came by 6 points in overtime against the Vikings. Given that, I’m not sure why they’re expected to win by at least a touchdown against the Jaguars.

The Lions are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play again next week on Thursday Night Football, their annual Thanksgiving home game. Favorites are 50-82 ATS before playing on Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Lions have never been good before these Thanksgiving games anyway, going 6-10 ATS since 2001 the week before Thanksgiving. The Jaguars, meanwhile, go to Buffalo next week. The early line has them as at least 6 point underdogs in that game, like they are here, and underdogs of 6 or more are 48-76 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more. However, they don’t deserve to be underdogs of that many in either game. If they have a strong performance this week, perhaps the line will shift under 6 next week. If not, I will probably be taking the Jaguars again next week. They’re one of the most underrated teams in the league because people don’t realize they’ve played well other than turnovers and a smart pick here at 6.5.

Detroit Lions 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6.5

Confidence: High

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

Even when the Vikings were 5-0, I thought they were overrated and an average team at best. Their defense is obviously incredible, but their offense was about as ineffective as their defense was effective through the first 5 games of the season. It was just masked by a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be very tough to rely on. Sure enough, the Vikings have been +0 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin over the past 2 games and have lost their first two games of the season. Their loss in Philadelphia was understandable because the Eagles are a solid team, but last week’s 20-10 loss against a supposedly inferior Bears team was embarrassing for the Vikings.

Now they return home and are 6.5 point home favorites over the Detroit Lions. Despite the back-to-back losses, the odds makers are still overrating them. Their offense has fallen to dead last in the NFL in first down percentage and, as good as their defense is (4th), they still rank just 22nd in first down percentage differential on the season. That’s actually one spot behind the Lions, who rank 21st. The Vikings have had a tougher schedule than the Lions, but this line is way too high at 6.5.

The Lions also enter this game in a better injury situation than they’ve had in awhile. Both cornerback Darius Slay and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata are expected to return from 1-game and 2-game absences respectively on defense this week. Before Ngata went down, defensive end Ezekiel Ansah missed 3 games in a row with injury. Linebacker DeAndre Levy remains out with injury, but Slay, Ngata, and Ansah are 3 of the 4 best defensive players on an overall weak defense and they’re playing in the same game for the first time since week 2 this week.

That should help a defense that ranks 28th in first down percentage allowed. Offensively, they have Theo Reddick and Eric Ebron back healthy and those are two of their top pass catchers. Those are just added weapons for an offense that ranks 4th in first down percentage. The Vikings, meanwhile, remain without running back Adrian Peterson, starting tackles Matt Kalil and Andre Smith, and stud defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who are out indefinitely. They’ll be joined this week by starting middle linebacker Eric Kendricks and starting left guard Alex Boone.

The Lions are also in a great spot here in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. The Vikings remain overrated, so I’ll bet against them once again.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)

The Texans are 4-3, but their 4 wins have come by a combined 26 points, while their 3 losses have come by a combined 63 points, giving them a -37 point differential, which is 6th worst in the NFL. They rank just 26th in first down percentage differential, thanks to an offense that has scored just 9 offensive touchdowns on 81 drives in 7 games this season. However, they were exposed nationally last week on Monday Night Football in a 27-9 loss in Denver, so they’re no longer overrated. This line has shifted from 3 in favor of the Texans on the early line last week to 2.5 this week, a significant half point swing considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Despite that, the public is still all over the Lions.

The Lions aren’t much better than the Texans, entering the 20th in first down percentage. This line is about where it should be, especially with the Lions missing top cornerback Darius Slay. That being said, I’m still taking the Lions because the Texans are in a bad spot, as small home favorites before a bye. Teams in this spot historically tend not to cover, as home favorites of 1 to 5.5 are just 38-63 ATS before a bye since 2002. Detroit is the pick, but I would need to get the full field goal to put any money on them.

Houston Texans 20 Detroit Lions 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3)

I have these two teams as more or less equal. They’re also very similar, as both teams have effective offenses, but weak defenses. In terms of first down percentage, Detroit ranks 4th offensively and Washington ranks 5th, but Washington is a few spots higher on the defensive side (25th and 30th) and, as a result, a few spots higher overall (20th vs. 23th). However, the Lions have been without top defensive lineman Ezekiel Ansah for most of the season thus far (limited to 85 snaps in 3 games by injury).

The Lions remain without defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and linebacker DeAndre Levy, two key players on this defense, but Ansah is now in his 2nd game back and could make a big impact on this game, after playing just 32 snaps in his first game back last week. Meanwhile, the Redskins are without tight end Jordan Reed, arguably their best offensive weapon. The Redskins won without Reed last week, but he’s such a good player that it really hurts to not have him out there. Despite that, the Lions are only favored by a point here at home. These two teams are even, so this line should be at least 3 in favor of the host.

On top of that, the Redskins are in a bad spot coming off of last week’s home upset victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Teams tend not to cover off of a big home upset victory, as teams are 53-76 ATS following a home upset victory since 2012. It makes sense that teams would be overconfident and/or overvalued off of a home upset victory. On top of that, the Redskins have to fly overseas and play the Bengals in London next week and teams are 8-19-1 ATS before playing in London all-time, which also makes sense. As long as this line is under 3, it’s worth putting money on Detroit. This figures to be a shootout, but the Lions should be able to win by at least a field goal at home.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Redskins 27

Pick against the spread: Detroit -1

Confidence: Medium

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Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Detroit Lions (2-3)

This line at 3 suggests these two teams are equal. I disagree with that. Despite, having a worse record than the Rams, the Lions are the significantly superior team in this matchup. Despite having three wins, the Rams rank dead last in first down percentage differential and have had a worse first down percentage than their opponents in all 5 games thus far. Their 3 wins have come by a combined 15 points, while their 2 losses have come by a combined 39 points. Their -24 point differential is 8th worst in the NFL and they’re legitimately a few plays away from being 1-4 or even 0-5. They have 36 fewer first downs than their opponents and have one of the worst rosters in the entire NFL.

The Rams could get defensive linemen Michael Brockers, Robert Quinn, and William Hayes all back from injury this week, after all three missed last week’s home loss to the Bills. Those three are a huge part of their defense and are game-time decisions at worst after returning to a limited practice on Friday and being listed as questionable. However, even with those three back, this is not a good team, especially with top cornerback Trumaine Johnson missing this game with injury. The Lions, meanwhile, rank 19th in first down percentage differential and get one of their best players back from injury this week, as defensive end Ezekiel Ansah returns for the first time since getting injured week 2.

Outside linebacker DeAndre Levy remains out and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata joins him, but Ansah is arguably their best defensive player and a huge re-addition to a defense that ranks 27th in first down percentage allowed. Their offense has been much better, ranking 5th in first down percentage. The Lions are a much better and much more complete team than the Rams here and should be favored by at least 6. On top of that, the Rams have a London game on deck and teams are understandably 7-19 ATS all-time before playing in London. This is a big wager on the Lions at 3 and still worth a bet even at 3.5.

Detroit Lions 24 Los Angeles Rams 16

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: High

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Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

Coming into the season, I had the Eagles atop my underrated teams list. I bet on them in each of their first 3 games, first as mere 3.5 point home favorites against the lowly Bears, then as 3.5 point road underdogs against the lowly Bears, then as 4 point home underdogs for the Pittsburgh Steelers week 3, prior to their week 4 bye. Not only did the Eagles cover all 3 games, but they covered them easily and actually have the league’s best point differential at +65 (despite only playing 3 games) and rank 1st in the league in first down percentage differential through their first 3 games. They might not finish the season as the league’s best team, but so far that’s what they’ve been.

Now, they no longer seem underrated. After their dominant performance against the Steelers, they come out of their bye as 3.5 point road favorites against a capable Detroit team. Now that they’re no longer underrated, I’m actually going to go the other way. The Eagles have had two weeks to hear about how great they are and the lines have adjusted, as this line was 1 in favor of the Lions last week on the early line (the Lions close upset loss in Chicago likely had something to do with that too). I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be the result of week-to-week overreactions. On top of that, teams like the Eagles who are coming off of a home upset victory tend not to cover the following week, likely because they’re overconfident and overvalued. Teams are 52-75 ATS in that spot since 2012. Despite that, the public is still all over the Eagles and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as well, as they always lose money in the long run.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because of how undermanned the Lions are on defense right now. They’re missing two of their three best defensive players with injury once again (linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah) and it has shown this season. Fortunately, their offense has remained strong and, even if this game isn’t close for most of the game, I like their chances of a late backdoor cover if they’re down by 10 late. As long as this line is higher than 3, I think it’s worth putting money on. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Eagles are a good team, but not as good as they’ve looked so far, so I like getting 3.5 with the Lions at home.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-2) at Chicago Bears (0-3)

Both of these teams enter this one incredibly banged up. While the Lions are missing two of their top three defensive players, linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, the Bears’ injuries are more numerous. Not only are they missing quarterback Jay Cutler, but they’re also missing top cornerback Kyle Fuller, top pass rusher Pernell McPhee, talented middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, talented nose tackle Eddie Goldman, and valuable reserve LaMarr Houston. Talent wise, they’re one of the few worst teams in the entire league without those guys.

That being said, the Lions might not be justified as 3.5 point road favorites in Chicago without Levy and Ansah. The Lions’ defense is built around those two and top cornerback Darius Slay and looked predictably overmatched without them last week against Green Bay. Chicago obviously doesn’t have the same kind of offensive firepower, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less so I like the Bears’ chances of at least getting a backdoor cover late, especially since the public is all over Detroit. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. This is a no confidence pick though and I might switch sides at 3.

Detroit Lions 27 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)

I’ve seen a couple articles this week asking what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. That doesn’t make sense to me. The Packers opened their season with two road games and played pretty well in both games all things considering, beating a capable Jacksonville team week 1 and then barely losing last week against a good Minnesota team. Despite splitting the two games, they actually moved the chains better than their opponents in both games and only lost in Minnesota because of a +2 turnover margin.

Turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent week-to-week and the Packers tend be better at winning the turnover battle than most, so I don’t see that as a long-term problem. They’re unlikely to be as good offensively as they were in 2014, when they finished 1st in rate of moving the chains (RMC), but they figure to finish significantly better than last season, when they finished 16th in that statistic, especially as Jordy Nelson gets back into game shape after missing all of last season with a torn ACL and especially as more home games come up on the schedule.

Now back at home, they have a very good chance to get back on track. They went just 4-4 ATS at home last season, but went 36-23 ATS in Lambeau from 2008 to 2014. Even if they don’t recapture that old home magic, it definitely helps that they’re going into a bye. Big favorites tend to take care of business going into a bye, as home favorites of 6 or more are 61-22 ATS before a bye since 2002. Their offense especially has a good chance to get back on track this week, as Detroit is missing two of their top three defensive players, linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, with injury. That leaves their defense very vulnerable. This is the easiest matchup the Packers have had thus far. Jacksonville’s defense wasn’t good, but that was a road game and the Packers still moved the chains at a respectable 75.00% rate.

As long as this line is 7 or fewer, this is a money play, though I’d be more hesitant at 7.5, as Detroit has a strong offense and I’d be worried about Detroit driving down the field down two touchdowns late for the backdoor cover, especially with the Packers missing some guys on defense as well (though not anyone as important as Ansah or Levy). The backdoor cover possibility also scares me off of making this my Pick of the Week, as does the fact that the Packers are playing a week 3 home opener, which historically doesn’t go well. Teams are just 24-46 ATS in a week 3 home opener since 1989. The Packers have had to travel a lot already and that could give the Lions an advantage, but their upcoming bye should keep them focused on this week and I like their chances of putting up a big number on Detroit’s injury plagued defense.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Detroit Lions (1-0)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against week-to-week overreactions, so I always check to see how much the line has changed since the early line the previous week. Sometimes big line movements make sense, but often they don’t. This line was 3.5 a week ago, but has since moved all the way to 6. At first glance, that might make sense, as Detroit pulled the upset victory in Indianapolis, while the Titans lost by 9 at home to Shaun Hill in the Vikings, but Indianapolis is an overrated team, so that win wasn’t that impressive, while the Titans actually outplayed Minnesota for most of the game, outside of two offensive plays that ended up going for defensive touchdowns the other way. They actually moved the chains at a 70.00% rate, as opposed to 62.50% for Minnesota. Their defense looked impressive, holding Adrian Peterson to one of the least productive games of his career (31 yards on 19 carries).

The Titans did lose outside linebacker Derrick Morgan to injury last week and they really missed him when he was injured last season, but they drafted outside linebacker Kevin Dodd in the 2nd round for depth purposes, so they’re much better prepared to handle his absence this time around. On the other side, the Lions are without top linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions are a solid team and better than the Titans, but this line is too high at 6 points. It’s not enough for me to put any money on it, but I’m taking the points here.

Detroit Lions 27 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

This line is at 3, which suggests these two teams are even. I disagree. The Lions finished last season just 7-9, but won 6 of their final 8 games and it easily could have been 7 if not for the longest game winning Hail Mary in NFL history in their loss to the Packers. Calvin Johnson is gone, but they added Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin and their offense was great down the stretch last season, after Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator mid-season. On defense, they get DeAndre Levy back from injury, after their talented linebacker missed essentially all of 2015. They have a good chance to continue playing well this season and push for a playoff spot.

The Lions’ schedule down the stretch last season was relatively easy (aside from Green Bay), so they’re unlikely to continue winning 3 out of every 4 games, but I don’t think the Colts are a tough opponent, especially with their top-2 defensive players, Vontae Davis and Henry Anderson, missing the start of the season with injury. The Colts get Andrew Luck back, but their passing offense wasn’t the problem last season, as they went 8-8. Their defense took a step back from the season before and they struggled mightily running the ball and protecting the quarterback.

Their running backs and offensive line remain a problem and the defense could take another step back. They lost top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency and have the oldest defense in the league, which looks like one of the worst in the league on paper. They’re going to have a tough time stopping anyone with Henry Anderson and Vontae Davis. I like the Lions’ chances of at least pushing as 3 point underdogs, as 1 of 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and I think they can also win the game outright.

Detroit Lions 27 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

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