Lions

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)

The Lions were sitting pretty atop the NFC North two weeks ago at 6-3. Now two weeks later? Well, they still lead the division, but largely because of the ineptitude of their division rivals over the past 2 weeks. The Lions have lost their last two games, both as favorites, to the Steelers and the Buccaneers and now sit at 6-5. However, I’m not going to knock them that much for those two losses. They were in tough spots in each game, coming off of a close win in Chicago before the Pittsburgh game and then going into a divisional Thursday Night Game after the Tampa Bay game. Both teams are also better than their records.

The Lions are also -8 in turnovers over the past 2 games. The fact that both games have even been close in spite of that is an accomplishment in itself. Turnover margins are pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis and the Lions were +1 on the season before the last two games so I don’t think it’s something that’s necessarily going to hurt them here again. Assuming it doesn’t, they should win pretty easily here. They’re still moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, a differential that is still a solid 11th in the NFL.

They deserve to be favored by more than 6 over the Packers as long as Aaron Rodgers is out, which he will be. This game is in Detroit and home field is usually 3 points, so this line is saying the Lions are only 3 points better than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think that’s true at all. Since he went down, the Packers have lost at home to the Bears and Eagles, by a combined 21 points, lost in New York to the Giants by 14, and tied at home with the lowly Vikings.

You could argue Rodgers deserves the MVP trophy for how poorly his team has fared without him. Matt Flynn will probably be an upgrade over Scott Tolzien, but I’m not convinced Flynn is even an average backup at this point, considering his struggles in the year and a half he was away from Green Bay. He’s posted some nice stats in Green Bay’s system, including 21 of 36 for 218 yards and a touchdown in relief of Tolzien, forcing a tie last week, but it’s not a big enough sample size for me to be convinced. Besides, Minnesota, who he faced last week, has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Also, don’t forget how big of a game this is for the Lions. They have lost their last 9 Thanksgiving games by an average of 19.4 points per game, including 3 to the Packers by an average of 15 points per game. They’ve also lost 22 of their last 25 to the Packers in general, getting outscored by an average of 10.4 points per game across all 25 games. They have a lot of demons to vanquish and a perfect opportunity to do so with Aaron Rodgers out.

This is the first time they’ve been favored on Thanksgiving since before the losing streak began and only the 5th time they’ve been favored against the Packers since the 22 of 25 stretch began. This is only the 2nd time they’ve been favored over the Packers by more than a field goal. I think they’re going to give it everything they have to capitalize on this opportunity and I really think a big part of the reason why they fell flat last week was because this game this week meant so much to them. I think they’ll play like it.

Also, the Packers could very well be exhausted in this one, on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters last week. Teams are 4-8 ATS since 1989 off of a tie in general, which isn’t a big sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting. Also worth noting, teams are 3-17 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night after an overtime game, including 1-13 ATS on the road, which also makes sense. And the majority of those teams didn’t even go the full overtime as the Packers are just the 3rd team in that time frame to play a Thursday Night game off of a tie. The previous two both failed to cover, losing against the spread by an average of 8 points per game. This is a near impossible situation for the Packers, especially at 1 PM start.

There is one reason why this isn’t a bigger play and that’s the situation both of these teams are in. The Lions are favorites before being underdogs in Philadelphia next week, while the Packers will host the Falcons next week. Teams are 52-86 ATS since 2008 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. However, I don’t think you can just blindly follow that trend. I don’t think it’s very likely the Lions get caught looking forward to Philadelphia next week when they have this incredible opportunity this week. I like the Lions a lot. They are also my Survivor Pick.

Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Lions, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4)

The Buccaneers may just be 2-8, but they are better than their record. Before the season, I said they had 7 of the top-200 players in the NFL (Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Dashon Goldson, Darrelle Revis, Gerald McCoy, Doug Martin, and Lavonte David). Doug Martin is out for the season, Carl Nicks is out indefinitely, and Dashon Goldson will miss this game with a suspension, but that still leaves 4 top level players, who have all lived up to their billing, five if you include breakout right tackle DeMar Dotson. Among those players, Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis are both playing at an All-Pro level and you could maybe say the same thing for Lavonte David.

Now that Mike Glennon has settled in and is playing decent football, this team is no pushover. They’ve won their last 2 games, including a home game against the Falcons last week that was a huge blowout for most of the game before garbage time. The Falcons aren’t very good obviously, but blowing out anyone is impressive. The Buccaneers are 1-4 in games decent by a touchdown or less and their point differential is only at -50, which is comparable to several 4-6 and 5-5 teams. This is despite facing a pretty tough schedule.

In terms of DVOA, they are 17th, while their opponent here, the Lions, are just 15th. The Buccaneers rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, while the Lions rank 12th, moving them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponent. We’re getting way too many points with the Buccaneers at +9.5.

The Lions could also be in a look ahead spot with a Thanksgiving game against the Packers coming up next week. Teams are 27-50 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw the Colts and Titans both fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010 last week in this scenario, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers.

The Lions could especially be looking ahead because it’s such an important divisional game, it’s a Thanksgiving game (where they haven’t had success recently), and it’s against a Green Bay team that they have been pretty much unable to beat for a good decade. They have some demons to exercise next week and a good chance of doing so with Aaron Rodgers’ status unclear. That could really trip them up this week. The only reason this isn’t a significant play is because the Buccaneers have to go to Carolina next week and teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. They too could be distracted. They should still be the right side though.

Detroit Lions 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +9.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Lions, Steelers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers are 3-6, but they are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which is a differential that ranks 17th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11 on the season), an inability to recover fumbles (28.6%), and return touchdowns (-2 in return touchdowns), but those things are all related and all very inconsistent. The Lions are a good team, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, but we’re still getting some line value with Pittsburgh +3.

The Lions are also in a bad spot after last week’s close win in Chicago. Favorites are 28-59 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 as road favorites the week before. They have a one game lead on the division, an easy schedule upcoming, and the two teams within a game of them in the division are missing their starting quarterbacks with injury. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they started to coast a little bit. As long as we’re getting a field goal with the Steelers, they should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record: 6-3

The Lions are 6-3 and could easily be favored in their final 7 games, unless Aaron Rodgers somehow comes back for their Thanksgiving game, which is unlikely. Unless they get complacent and flop down the stretch, this is the clear favorite to win the NFC North and end up in the 3 seed in the NFC. They could easily go from 4-12 to 12-4 and they haven’t actually played much better. Last season, they were killed by turnovers (-16), inability to recover fumbles (32.6%), return touchdowns (-10 touchdowns), and inability to win close games (3-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less). This year, they are +1 in turnovers, recover 39.1% of fumbles (which will probably still improve going forward), +1 in return touchdowns, and 3-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. The narrative is that they’ve learned how to be a less sloppy team, but, at the end of the day, those things are all very random.

Week 10 Studs

QB Matt Stafford

RT LaAdrian Waddle

DT Ndamukong Suh

MLB Stephen Tulloch

Week 10 Duds

CB Darius Slay

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

The Bears are 5-3, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their wins came at home by 3 over Cincinnati, who isn’t a very good road team (loss in Cleveland, Miami, almost in Buffalo), at home by 1 over Minnesota, who isn’t good, by 17 in Pittsburgh, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, at home against the Giants by 6, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, and last week in Green Bay against Seneca Wallace. Their losses, meanwhile, have come in Washington, at home for New Orleans, who isn’t a good road team, and in Detroit against this Lions team, who was actually facing a rough trend the last time around with Green Bay on deck. The Bears rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential.

Things aren’t going to get better with Jay Cutler right? Well, not necessarily. Remember, Cutler only missed about 7 quarters and Josh McCown played about as well as Cutler could have in his absence, completing 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and no interception. Cutler is a better long-term solution, but the offense is hardly the problem, moving the chains at a 78% rate. The defense is the bigger problem, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate.

They are forcing a league worst 30 punts and things have only gotten worse of late as their takeaway rate has predictably dropped. Last season they were an elite stop unit that could also take the ball away from you. This you, if they are unable to come up with a takeaway, they have a very, very hard time getting you off the field and preventing you from scoring. Coming into the season, they had lost top defensive minds Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli, and 4 of their top-5 defensive players. Those 4 players have all played worse this season and the other one, Henry Melton, is one for the season with injury. Also dealing with injuries are Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. The latter is out indefinitely, while the former is a shell of his former self as a result. As I said, things are only going to get worse.

Also, the Bears’ supporting cast could slack off and ease up with Cutler returning. They’ve done a great job in his absence and they might feel they no longer have to do that with Cutler back. On top of that, Cutler himself could be very limited. Remember, he was supposed to miss about a month. He’ll be exactly 3 weeks removed from the injury when he returns this week. It’s not a high confidence pick or anything, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against spread: Detroit PK

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 10 (-1)

Record: 5-3

Last year, the two problems for the Lions were turnovers and close losses and it looked like the Lions were re-living last year this week against the Cowboys before that amazing game winning drive. They won the game despite losing the turnover battle by 4, something that had only happened 19 times prior since 1989, as opposed to 393 losses. They did this by accumulating 623 yards of offense, as opposed to 268 for the Cowboys, only the 24th time since 1989 that a team won the yardage battle by that much (22-2 straight up). They are moving the chains at an explosive 78% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents and rank 10th in differential. They have a lot of promise going forward, especially if Matt Stafford continues playing at a borderline-MVP level (he’s ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked passing quarterback behind Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers).

Week 8 Studs

QB Matt Stafford

WR Calvin Johnson

RT LaAdrian Waddle

LG Rob Sims

C Dominic Raiola

MLB Stephen Tulloch

CB Chris Houston

Week 8 Duds

TE Joseph Fauria

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Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Lions, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at Detroit Lions (4-3)

The Lions are going into a bye this week. Ordinarily, teams cover at an above average rate going into a bye, which makes sense because they don’t have any distractions on the horizon. However, the Lions are just small home favorites here and teams do not cover as small home favorites going into a bye, as teams who are favored by 3 or less going into a bye are just 11-30 ATS since 2002, an incredibly bad record.

This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here, as these two teams are 10th (Lions) and 11th (Cowboys) in my Power Rankings. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are in a good spot. They are underdogs with no upcoming distractions, with a home game against Minnesota on deck, so they can be as focused as they need to be to pull the upset. Non-divisional road dogs are 96-61 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, including 41-21 ATS as non-divisional road dogs of 3 or less. The Bengals came into Detroit and won in this situation and last week and the Lions have been kind of screwed over by the schedulers because they have to face back-to-back opponents who are in this dynamic, but it should be a similar result. This is my Pick of the Week.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (-1)

Record: 4-3

I said before the game that the Lions and Bengals were as evenly matched as two teams could be and the Bengals won by a field goal. Still, the Lions have the inside track for a playoff spot in the NFC. They still have an explosive offense that moves the chains at a 78% rate and a decent defense that moves the chains at a 75% rate.

Week 7 Studs

WR Calvin Johnson

DT Ndamukong Suh

Week 7 Duds

RG Larry Warford

TE Brandon Pettigrew

RE Ezekiel Ansah

LE Willie Young

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