Lions

Detroit Lions 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

After four straight years of missing the playoffs and with quarterback Matt Stafford demanding a trade, the Lions started what looked like it would be a long rebuild in the 2021 off-season. Even the Lions themselves seemed to be admitting it would be a long rebuild. They turned down a trade that would have given the Lions a relatively high draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, which would have allowed them to select a young quarterback like Mac Jones or Justin Fields, and opted to send Stafford to a Rams for a package that included two first round picks, but in the 2022 and 2023 drafts. 

Normally, teams value future draft picks one round lower for every year they have to wait for them, meaning those 2022 and 2023 first round picks were worth the equivalent of a second and third round pick in 2021, but the Lions were not expecting to compete in the short-term and were willing to be patient and wait for the draft picks. The Lions also took back the most expensive contract in the short-term, with the Rams sending quarterback Jared Goff back to the Lions, giving the Lions a more expensive, inferior quarterback that they wouldn’t be able to move on from without penalty for two years.

The first year of this rebuild went about how you’d expect, with the Lions finishing the 2021 season with a 3-13-1 record, which was made even worse by the Rams winning the Super Bowl and leaving the Lions with just the 32nd pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but, a year later, things look a lot better. While the Rams bottomed out in 2022, gifting the Lions with the 6th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Lions surprisingly finished the 2022 season at 9-8, barely out of the post-season, despite a 1-6 start. Given how well the Lions closed last season and the overall amount of young talent on this team, many expect the Lions to take another step forward in 2023 and make the post-season, either as a wild card or by winning their division for what would be the first time since the 1993 season, a realistic possibility with both the Packers and Vikings seemingly on the way down and the Bears still rebuilding.

Part of the Lions’ success last season was actually because of the play of the quarterback who most considered a throw-in in the Matt Stafford trade, Jared Goff, who finished the season with a 72.4 PFF rating and completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Goff isn’t as good as Stafford when both are at their best, but he’s younger, only heading into his age 29 season, and he has played well enough to justify his salary (25.975 million in 2023), so the Lions rightfully haven’t been in a hurry to find his replacement, which has allowed them to use all of the assets they’ve accumulated in their rebuild on the rest of this roster.

Goff has never been the kind of quarterback that can elevate a mediocre roster and, as such, he struggled in his first season in Detroit in 2021, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with an underwhelming team around him, but he’s shown himself capable of taking a strong roster to the post-season and beyond, even leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance during the 2018 season. I would expect more of the same from Goff in 2023, in what will be his 8th season in the league.

The Lions did commit a somewhat high pick to the quarterback position in this year’s draft, taking Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker in the third round, but Hooker isn’t necessarily a replacement for Goff. The Lions needed a better backup quarterback and Hooker is unlikely to see action in year one anyway, rehabbing from a torn ACL that he suffered towards the end of the college football season. It’s possible Hooker impresses enough behind the scenes that the Lions want to move on from Goff in a year or two, with Hooker as a cheaper alternative on the roster, but Goff also could just as easily keep the job long-term, with Hooker as his backup.

Unfortunately, with Hooker unlikely to be healthy enough to be the backup in 2023, backup quarterback remains a position of weakness, with Nate Sudfeld (77.3 career QB rating on 37 pass attempts with no starts in 7 seasons in the league) being the only other quarterback on this roster with any experience. He shouldn’t be handed the backup quarterback job and it’s possible the Lions find another backup quarterback option before training camp, which would be advisable, as Sudfeld would likely be in way over his head if forced to start for an extended period of time in the case that Goff suffers an injury. Goff is a solid starter without much of a history of injury (three games missed due to injury in his career), but things would go south for this team in a hurry if he missed significant time.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The biggest reason for the success of Jared Goff and the rest of this offense in 2022 (5th in offensive DVOA) was the play of their offensive line, which is arguably the best in the league. Their offensive line was also the biggest reason for their big improvement from 2021 (29th in offensive DVOA) to 2022, with arguably their two best offensive linemen, offensive tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow, making 17 starts and 16 starts respectively, after injury plagued 2021 seasons in which they started just 9 games and 4 games respectively. 

Ragnow received a grade of 77.9 from PFF in his return from injury, 5th highest among centers, and he’s no one-year wonder either, with grades of 74.9 and 80.3 in 2019 and 2020 respectively and even a 86.7 grade in 2021 before getting hurt. A first round pick in 2018 who is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, with minimal injury history outside of 2021 (4 games missed total in his other 4 seasons in the league), I would expect Ragnow to remain one of the top centers in the league in 2023.

Decker isn’t quite as good, but still received a 74.4 grade from PFF, 22nd among offensive tackles. That’s nothing new for Decker, who has received a grade of at least 70 from PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, with the one exception being an injury plagued season in 2017, only his second season in the league. Outside of that injury plagued season and 2021, Decker has only ever missed one other start and, not over the hill at age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect any drop off from him this season. Assuming he doesn’t suffer another injury, he should remain at least an above average starter on the left side for the Lions in 2023.

Decker’s return to health allowed Penei Sewell to spend the whole season at right tackle, where the 7th overall pick fared significantly better as a rookie (80.7 PFF grade) while Decker was healthy than he did at left tackle (68.5 PFF grade), where he was forced to play while Decker was out. Sewell continued that strong play on the right side into his second season in the league, proving to be a dominant force with a 80.6 PFF grade, 9th among offensive tackles. He can play left tackle in a pinch if needed, but it’s clear the right side is his better position and, only in his age 23 season, he should remain one of the best right tackles in the league for years to come, even if he doesn’t improve even further, which he could.

The Lions also got good play out of their guards in 2022. Ragnow’s return allowed Evan Brown, who was capable, if unspectacular at center in Ragnow’s absence, to move to right guard, where he continued being a solid starter, posting a 64.8 PFF grade in 12 starts after a 66.8 PFF grade in 12 starts at center in 2021. Brown is no longer with the team, but the Lions do get veteran Halapoulivaati Vaitai back from an injury that cost him all of last season. Vaitai received a 68.4 grade in 15 starts in his last healthy season in 2021, though it’s unclear if he’ll be able to do that again, coming off of a significant injury, going into his age 30 season, and with a history of inconsistency. Aside from 2021, he’s never made more than 10 starts in a season in 7 seasons in the league and in his two other seasons with at least 6 starts he has received PFF grades of 56.6 and 59.7 respectively. He’s probably the weak spot by default on an overall strong offensive line, though he does have some bounce back potential if he’s healthy.

Jonah Jackson remained as the starter at left guard, where he’s been since being drafted by the Lions in the third round in 2020. He had some growing pains as a rookie, finishing with a 57.0 PFF grade, but that improved to 69.3 in 2021 and 66.1 in 2022 and, in total, he’s started 45 of a possible 50 games since entering the league. Going into his age 26 season, he could still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a solid starter into 2023 and beyond. 

The Lions also have good depth on the offensive line, after signing veteran Graham Glasgow to be a reserve this off-season. For Glasgow, it’s a return to Detroit, where the 2016 3rd round pick spent his first four seasons in the league. Glasgow developed into an above average starter in Detroit, receiving grades of 70.6, 71.1, and 74.1 from PFF in his final 3 seasons respectively, seeing action at both guard and center, but he was kind of a bust as a free agent signing with the Broncos, who lured him over on a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal, only to see Glasgow post grades of 68.5, 65.1, and 59.3 in an injury plagued tenure in which he missed 13 games in three seasons. Now going into his age 31 season with a significant recent injury history, Glasgow would be an underwhelming week 1 starting option, but he’s great depth to have, especially given his versatility. He should be able to hold down a starting spot for an extended period of time on the interior if needed.

The Lions’ tackle depth is not as good, with Matt Nelson making 12 starts as the swing tackle over the past three seasons, but receiving grades of just 55.8, 50.8, and 46.3 from PFF. He’ll be pushed for the swing tackle role by veteran journeyman Germain Ifedi, who is plenty experienced (83 starts in 7 seasons in the league), but who has mostly struggled in his career, finishing with a PFF grade higher than 60 just twice in seven seasons in the league, with his career high being 65.0 in 2020. Ifedi is probably an upgrade over Nelson, but mostly by default and he would be a big downgrade from Decker or Sewell if either missed significant time with injury. Still, this is a very talented offensive line overall, possibly the best in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big part of the reason why the Lions were so much better on offense in 2022 than they were in 2021 was the emergence of second year wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown as a legitimate #1 receiver. Only a 5th round pick in 2021, St. Brown surprised a lot of people as a rookie with a 90/912/5 slash line (79.4 PFF grade) and surprised even more when he took another step forward in year two, finishing with a 106/1161/6 slash line and a PFF grade of 90.7 that ranked him second among wide receivers. He’s still a 1-year wonder in terms of being an elite wide receiver, but it was a surprise that he fell to the 5th round in the first place and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue proving teams wrong and remaining one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in 2022 every season. 

St. Brown was by far the Lions’ best receiver last season, with their second leading receiver on the team Kalif Raymond posting just a 47/616/0 slash line and that will likely remain the case for the Lions in 2023, at least for the first six games of the year. The Lions were hoping that second year wide receiver Jameson Williams, the 12th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, would break out opposite St. Brown in his second season in the league, after what amounted to a rookie redshirt year, with a torn ACL that he sustained in the college football playoffs limiting him to 78 snaps late in the season. 

Williams could still break out, but it’ll have to wait until at least week 7, with Williams serving a gambling suspension for the first six weeks of the season. Williams would have been a top-10 or even top-5 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft had he not gotten hurt and he has the upside to breakout as one of the top wide receivers in the league long-term, but he’s still unproven at this level and, even if he someday becomes one of the better wide receivers in the league, that doesn’t mean he’ll do so right away.

With Williams out for the first six weeks of the season, the Lions will have to depend more on Marvin Jones, a free agent acquisition who will replace free agent departure DJ Chark (69.6 PFF grade across 534 snaps), and Kalif Raymond, a former undrafted career special teamer who surprised with his decent play as the #2 receiver last season (72.1 PFF grade across 555 snaps), after struggling in a similar role with a 60.5 PFF grade across 742 snaps in 2021, the first significant action of his career at wide receiver. Raymond is probably best suited to be a #3 or #4 wide receiver, but he’s not a terrible fill-in option, even if he obviously lacks Williams’ upside.

Marvin Jones is more or less the same, a decent player, but better suited for a reserve and situational role. There was a time he was more than that and, in fact, this is his second stint in Detroit, after averaging a 58/859/7 slash line per season in five seasons with the Lions from 2016-2020, but Jones is heading into his age 33 season now and has seen his yards per route run average drop from 1.59 in his first nine seasons in the league to 1.24 over the past two seasons, so he seems to be getting close to the end. He might have another capable season left in him, but he’s a pretty low upside option. Holdover Josh Reynolds is also in the mix, but the 6-year veteran has just a 1.23 yards per route run average for his career.

The Lions added to this receiving corps by taking Iowa’s Sam LaPorta in the second round of the draft. That’s not a surprising move considering the Lions received a package centered around a second round pick in exchange for tight end TJ Hockenson, who the Lions sent to the Vikings mid-season last year. The Lions didn’t miss Hockenson much, making the tight end position less of a part of their passing game and sending Hockenson’s targets elsewhere, but LaPorta should at least have a rookie year role in this offense, with his top competition being Brock Wright, a blocking specialist who was the nominal starter in Hockenson’s absence last season. 

Wright has averaged a decent 1.30 yards per route run in a limited passing game role in his first two seasons in the league, but the former undrafted free agent is an underwhelming starting option, receiving grades of 53.5 and 54.2 from PFF over the past seasons. The Lions also have 2022 5th round pick James Mitchell, who showed some upside with a 66.9 PFF grade on 183 snaps as a rookie and could take a step forward and play a bigger role in year two. LaPorta should be considered the favorite for the starting job, but tight ends tend to have a steep learning curve entering the NFL and he’s mostly the favorite for the job because his competition is underwhelming. This passing game will still go through St. Brown, but the re-addition of Jameson Williams mid-season after his suspension could have a big impact if he can come close to meeting his potential.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Lions also likely have a big passing game role planned for rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who they selected 12th overall after trading down from the Rams pick at 6. Gibbs was a controversial pick, as running backs taken in the first round tend not to be a good investment and running back didn’t even seem to fill a clear need for the Lions, with David Montgomery, a 4-year starter with the Bears, being signed to a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal in free agency and D’Andre Swift as a passing down/change of pace option.

Montgomery’s role is now somewhat up in the air, originally signed to replace Jamaal Williams, who had a 4.07 YPC and 17 touchdowns on 262 carries last season, but now with a highly drafted rookie added as competition. Montgomery’s contract suggests the Lions expect him to have at least somewhat significant of a role, at least on early downs, but the Lions are likely overpaying for how much usage Montgomery figures to get. He’s surpassed 200 carries in each of the past four years with the Bears and, even if that’s not the case again in 2023 if he splits carries with Gibbs, he should see his career 3.94 YPC average increase now with significantly better blocking in Detroit than he had in Chicago. However, the Lions are paying a steep price for him, especially when considering he probably will have the second most touches in this backfield behind Gibbs.

Gibbs gives the Lions upside in the passing game that Montgomery (1.04 yards per route run in his career) doesn’t and, while Swift fared well in that role last season (1.65 yards per route run), in addition to a 5.47 YPC on 99 carries as the change of pace back, the Lions were likely concerned about Swift’s durability, as the 2020 2nd round pick has missed at least three games with injury in every season in the league, and clearly favored Gibbs long-term. With Gibbs being added in the draft, the Lions had no need for Swift, who was in the final year of his rookie deal and returned a 2025 4th round pick in a post-draft trade with the Eagles. The Lions have a lot of resources committed to this backfield, with Montgomery being the 15th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and Gibbs being selected 12th overall, and they might not get the kind of play you would expect for the kind of resources they’ve spent, but they are a solid running back tandem at the very least. 

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

With the Lions having the success on offense they did last season, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that their defense was a big problem, ranking 28th in DVOA, and, if the Lions want to take a step forward as a team in 2023, that’s the side of the ball where they will need to improve. There is good reason to believe the Lions can do that, in part because defensive performance tends to be much less consistent and predictive year-to-year than offensive performance, but also because the Lions committed significant resources to their defense this off-season and have several players they can expect more out of in 2023.

At the edge defender position, the latter is the case, as the Lions didn’t make any big additions to this group, but could still get better play than they did a year ago. Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, and James Houston are all second year players who could be better than they were as rookies. Hutchinson has by far the most upside of the group and the 2022 2nd overall pick is already off to a great start, finishing his rookie year with a 80.7 PFF grade, including 89.5 from week 11 on. That’s a small sample size, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued that into year two.

Paschal was a second round pick and his rookie year impact was probably underwhelming for a relatively high draft pick, spending most of the year as a reserve, playing just 293 snaps and receiving an underwhelming 55.1 PFF grade. However, he has the talent to take a step forward in year two and become a more consistent contributor. James Houston also didn’t play much as a rookie, seeing just 140 snaps total, but he was incredibly efficient in his limited action, managing 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 18.5% pressure rate on just 92 pass rush snaps. He’s highly unlikely to be anywhere near that efficient again in 2023, just because no one does that for an extended period of time, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t make a bigger impact overall if he gets more playing time.

The Lions also have a pair of veterans coming off injury plagued years who could make more of an impact in 2023, Charles Harris and Romeo Okwara. Harris was the Lions’ best pass rusher in 2021, totaling 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate and received a 68.3 PFF grade, but he was limited to 259 snaps in 6 games in 2022 and did not fare nearly as well when on the field either, finishing the year with a 56.4 PFF grade and a 7.2% pressure rate. 

Harris should be healthier in 2023, though there’s no guarantee he’ll play as well as he did in 2021, which has largely been an outlier season for a player who has mostly been a reserve in his career, with his highest snap count outside of 2021 being just 496 back in his rookie season in 2017. Harris was a first round pick in 2017 and looked like a late bloomer after 2021, but he could just as easily prove to be a one-year wonder who can’t repeat his 2021 form. 

For Okwara, his injury issues date back a couple years, as a torn achilles suffered during the 2021 season limited him to 188 snaps in 4 games that season and 119 snaps in 5 games last season. Okwara also didn’t look himself upon his return last season, struggling with a 56.3 PFF grade in his limited action. Okwara is largely a one-year wonder as well, with 10 sacks, 9 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in his last full healthy season in 2020 and just a 8.9% pressure rate in his other 6 seasons in the league combined, but he had a 17.8% pressure rate in 2021 in limited action before getting hurt and, still only in his age 28 season, another year removed from his injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he bounced back at least somewhat in 2023.

With Harris and Okwara likely to be healthier and a trio of second year players who could take a step forward, it’s very likely that John Cominsky, who finished second among Lions edge defenders behind Hutchinson with 554 snaps played last season, has a diminished role this season, perhaps significantly, but that’s not necessarily an indictment on his play, as he had 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate last season and had an admirable 68.2 PFF grade. 

Cominsky was a career backup prior to last season, with 512 total snaps played in his first three seasons in the league with the Falcons prior to being claimed off the waivers by the Lions in 2022, but the 2019 4th round pick always flashed in limited action and should fare well in what will likely be a more limited rotational role for him in 2023, in a position group that should be much deeper than a year ago, despite not having any significant off-season additions. 

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Lions didn’t make any notable additions on the interior of their defensive line either this off-season, but they do get 2021 2nd round pick Levi Onwuzurike back after he missed all of 2022 with injury. Onwuzurike didn’t show much in limited action (396 snaps) as a rookie, but he came into the league with a lot of potential and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he developed into at least a solid contributor in his third season in the league in 2023. The Lions being deeper at the edge defender spot also means they can line up an edge defender on the inside in obvious passing situations more often than they did last season, which will offset their lack of depth on the interior somewhat.

Even with Onwuzurike returning and more depth on the edge, the Lions will once again be counting on big roles from Alim McNeill (779 snaps) and Isaiah Buggs (752 snaps). McNeill was also in the 2021 draft class with Onwuzurike and, despite going a round later in the third round, his career has gotten off to a much better start than Onwuzurike’s, as he had a decent 60.1 PFF grade on 422 snaps as a rookie before posting a 69.8 grade in a much larger starting role in 2022. Now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid contributor.

Buggs is a much shakier option. He finished last season with a 53.9 PFF grade and only played as much as he did out of necessity with Onwuzurike out, after playing just 433 snaps total in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, finishing with grades of lower than 60 on PFF in each of those three seasons as well. He’ll almost definitely play fewer snaps this season, but he’ll probably still struggle even in a smaller role and the Lions aren’t deep enough to avoid having to at least play him in a rotational role.

The Lions also signed veteran journeyman Christian Covington in free agency to give them additional depth. Covington was a good rotational player earlier in his career, but he’s finished below average on PFF in every season in his career in which he’s played more than 500 snaps and now he’s heading into his age 30 season coming off of an injury plagued season with the Chargers in which he struggled mightily when on the field and played just 123 snaps total. He’ll compete for a deep rotational role with their top returning reserve interior defender Benito Jones, a 2020 undrafted free agent who struggled on 309 snaps in the first significant action of his career. The return of Onwuzurike will probably help this group, but they’re still underwhelming overall.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Lions had two first round picks this year because of the Matt Stafford trade and they used the second of those two picks, their own, 18th overall, on Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell. Like the selection of Jahmyr Gibbs with their first round, Campbell’s selection was also controversial, as he was considered a day 2 prospect and didn’t seem to fill an obvious need either. The Lions re-signed veteran Alex Anzalone to a 3-year, 18.3 million dollar deal this off-season and have a pair of recent draft picks who had decent seasons last year, 2021 4th round pick Derrick Barnes and 2022 6th round pick Malcolm Rodriguez, who had PFF grades of 62.3 and 62.8 respectively on 346 snaps and 611 snaps respectively.

Barnes struggled mightily as a rookie on 448 snaps, but could easily continue being a good situational linebacker long-term, while Rodriguez looked like a long-term starter. Anzalone might actually be the worst of the bunch, starting 51 of 69 games played in six seasons in the league, but only once receiving a grade from PFF higher than 62 (59.2 last season). However, his contract basically guarantees him a role, so Campbell’s addition will mostly take snaps away from their other young linebackers. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps and there will be a lot of competition for roles in training camp, even if the addition of a linebacker in the first round probably wasn’t necessary. 

Grade: B

Secondary

The Lions committed the most resources to this secondary of any position group this off-season, a smart decision as that was their biggest weakness last season. Jeffrey Okudah (59.4 PFF grade on 789 snaps), Will Harris (63.7 on 659 snaps), Mike Hughes (59.9 on 561 snaps), Jerry Jacobs (55.8 on 542 snaps), and Amani Oruwairye (30.0 on 474 snaps) were their top cornerbacks in terms of snaps played last season. This off-season, they added Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton to be starters on contracts of 1 years, 6 million and 3 years, 33 million respectively and they added hybrid safety/slot cornerbacks CJ Gardner-Johnson and Brian Branch as well, with Gardner-Johnson added in free agency on a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar contract and Branch being a second round draft pick. Okudah was traded, Hughes and Oruwairye weren’t retained in free agency, and Harris and Jacobs are likely to be reserves in 2023.

Sutton will be the de facto #1 cornerback, by virtue of his bigger salary. The 2017 3rd round pick was a bit of a late bloomer, but he’s made 37 starts over the past 3 seasons with PFF grades of 68.6, 61.9, and 71.6 respectively so he should continue being at least a solid starting option for the Lions, something they didn’t really have last season. Moseley should be as well, as he’s finished with a PFF grade higher than 68 of three of the past four seasons, including a career best 70.9 in 2022. His biggest problem has been durability, missing 22 games over those 4 seasons. He should remain a solid starter, but he’ll probably miss more time at some point, having never played more than 602 snaps in a season in his career.

How the Lions use Gardner-Johnson and Branch will be interesting to see, as both can play on the slot and at safety and the Lions have playing time available in both spots. Gardner-Johnson got attention for his 6 interceptions last season with the Eagles, tied for the league lead, but it’s not a surprise he had to settle for a one-year deal in free agency, as he only had a 63.9 PFF grade last season despite the high interception total and he’s finished with a PFF grade below 65 in three of four seasons in the league. He’s also never finished below 60, so he has a low floor and he’s a versatile option who is a good value for the Lions on the contract they signed him to, but he’s not as good as his interception total last season suggests.

The Lions will also be getting safety Tracy Walker back from injury, after his 2022 season was ended by a week 3 achilles tear. He might not be quite the same in his first season back from injury, but the 2018 3rd round pick has finished average or better on PFF in 4 of 5 seasons in the league, with three seasons above 70, including a 74.3 grade before injury in 2022. Still only in his age 28 season, he should make something close to a full recovery in his first season back and should be an asset for this defense upon his return.

In Tracy Walker’s absence, DeShon Elliott (859 snaps) and Kerby Joseph (875 snaps) led Lions safeties in snaps played. Elliott is no longer with the team, but Joseph was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and should maintain a role in this secondary, even with Walker returning, after earning a promising 64.0 grade from PFF as a rookie. He probably won’t see the same snap count this year, but should still be a useful player for them in sub packages and obvious passing situations, when Gardner-Johnson and/or Branch could move to the slot.

Will Harris also remains as a versatile reserve who can play safety and cornerback. Primarily playing cornerback last year, he was the Lions’ only cornerback to receive even an average grade from PFF and, while the 2019 3rd round pick has been more inconsistent than that in the past, he’s still not a bad reserve option, especially when you consider his versatility. This isn’t a great secondary, but isn’t much deeper and more talented than last year’s unit, which was one of the worst in the league. If the Lions are significantly improved on defense this season, it will be primarily because of the improvement in this unit.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Lions were one of the best offensive teams in the league last season and have a good chance to repeat their strong performance again in 2023, with all of their top-10 in terms of snaps played on offense returning from a year ago. On defense, the Lions should be much improved, thanks to the improvement of their young defensive line and the off-season additions they made in the secondary. They won’t be great defensively, but they won’t need to be to make the post-season if their offense can continue playing around the level they played at last season. In a weak NFC North, the Lions look like the early favorites. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 10-7, 1st in NFC North

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)

The Lions started the season 1-6, but have since won six of the past seven games to get back to .500, putting themselves very much in the mix for a playoff spot. In some ways, their improvement was predictable. Four of their first six losses came by one score, despite having significant injuries on offense and a defense that was the worst in the league, which tends to be less consistent week-to-week than poor offensive play. In recent weeks, their offense has been significantly healthier, their defense hasn’t been quite as bad, and they’ve won three of four one-score games, leading to them winning six of their past seven games.

There are some reasons to believe they won’t be quite as successful going forward as they have been in their past seven games though, as they have had a +9 turnover margin over those seven games, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Lions rank a middling 16th on the season and, even though they’re healthier than they were earlier in the season, the Lions are also a middling team in my roster rankings, about a half point above average.

This week, the Lions face the Panthers, who have also been significantly better in recent weeks, particularly since switching to Sam Darnold at quarterback, who has been by far their best option under center this season. After being one of the worst few teams in the league in schedule adjusted efficiency earlier in the year, the Panthers have moved up to 24th (-3.88), and, with Darnold under center, they are only about one point below average in my roster rankings. 

Given that they’re only slightly below average with Darnold under center, the Panthers should have a good chance to win this game at home against the middling Lions, who are probably not going to have the same turnover success they have had in recent weeks. Despite that, the Panthers are 2.5-point underdogs in this game. I would need a full field goal for the Panthers to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +125, as the Panthers should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game,

Carolina Panthers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at New York Jets: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Jets were favored by a field goal at home against the Lions, but this line has since shifted to favoring the Lions by 1.5 points. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements like that, but in this case it might be justified, as the Lions played well in a big victory over the Vikings, while the Jets lost their best quarterback Mike White to injury and will turn back to Zach Wilson this week. 

The Jets could also be without stud interior defender Quinnen Williams, arguably the best player on their defense, after he didn’t practice all week. I’m still taking the Jets for pick ‘em purposes because they still have the edge on the season in point differential (+21 vs. +2) and schedule adjusted efficiency (12th vs. 18th), even with a carousel of different quarterbacks under center, and they now are home underdogs in this game. This is only a low confidence pick though and, if Williams is out, I would drop all confidence.

Update: Williams out, but, for some reason, the Jets are now favored by 1.5 points. I am switching my pick to Detroit, but dropping this to a no confidence pick.

New York Jets 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +1.5

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (10-2) at Detroit Lions (5-7)

The Vikings have not played nearly as good as their 10-2 record, going an unsustainable 9-0 in one score games, managing just a +10 point differential, and ranking just 18th in schedule adjusted efficiency. However, the public seems to understand that their record is not indicative of how good of a team they are, so we haven’t gotten great line value betting against them recently, leading to the Vikings covering the spread in three of their past four games. 

If anything, we’re getting line value in this game with the Vikings, who have shifted from being 3-point favorites on the early line last week to now being 2-point underdogs against a 5-7 Lions team. The Lions won big against the Jaguars last week, while the Vikings barely put away with the Jets, but that line movement seems like an overreaction to a single week of play and I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements that are overreactions.

Even not being as good as their record, the Vikings should still be favored by at least a couple points here in Detroit, especially with stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw set to return, a big re-addition. I would need this line to be a full field goal for the Vikings to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +110, as the Vikings should still be at least slight favorites, and the Vikings are also a good pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 34 Detroit Lions 31 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

This is another one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. My calculated line has the Lions just slightly favored to win this game, but it also has the Jaguars covering this 1-point spread, which is how close this one is for me. Making it even tougher, there also aren’t any situational trends affecting either side. I’m taking the Jaguars for pick ‘em purposes because we’re technically getting some line value with them, but this 1-point spread doesn’t give us much room to work with and the most likely outcome of this game might be a push.

Detroit Lions 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 33

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +1

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Bills were 10-point favorites for this game in Detroit, but the line has since moved to 9.5. That’s not a huge line movement, but 10 is a key number, with about 6% of games decided by exactly 10 points, and the line movement happened despite the fact that the Lions will be missing top cornerback Jeff Okudah and their starting guards Evan Brown and Jonah Jackson this week. The primary reason for the line movement is the Lions pulled the upset over the Giants last week, but that is not as impressive as it might seem, as the Giants were an overrated team that was nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record, with all seven of their wins coming by one score and five coming against teams that are among the worst in the league (4-7 or worse).

The Bills, meanwhile, almost always blow out their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points across 19 wins over the past two seasons (19-10), and they are favored by 12.5 points on my calculated line against a mediocre Lions team that is missing several key players due to injury. There isn’t enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as this seems likely to be the Bills’ 18th double digit win over the past two seasons.

Buffalo Bills 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -9.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at New York Giants: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2)

This line moved from favoring the Giants by four points on the early line last week to just three points this week, a significant swing given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points. Normally I like to go against a significant week-to-week line movement like that as it tends to be an overreaction, but, in this case, I don’t think the line has moved far enough and was too high to begin with. The Giants beat the Texans last week, but the Texans are arguably the worst team in the league and the Giants needed to win the turnover margin by two to win the game by eight and they lost the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 8.12% and 0.97 respectively, which are much more predictive than turnovers. 

The Giants are 7-2 overall, but all of their wins have come by eight points or fewer, with all but two coming against sub-.500 teams, and several of their wins have required comebacks, with the Giants ranking just 27th in time leading per game, despite their record. They could beat the Lions and move to 8-2, but I expect the Lions to keep this game close and, with this line at a full field goal, the Lions seem like the better side, at least for pick ‘em purposes. There isn’t enough here for the Giants to be worth betting, but, with my calculated line at NY Giants -1.5, I expect this to be a close game and one the Lions could end up winning.

New York Giants 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (2-6) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Bears were favored by 1.5 points at home in this matchup with the Lions, but now they are favored by 3, a significant swing, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. I normally like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and I think that is the case here. The line movement is likely driven by the Bears’ near upset of the Dolphins last week, but the Lions played a close game with the Dolphins the week prior and then pulled an upset victory over the Packers last week, so it doesn’t really make sense that this line would have moved significantly.

These two teams are pretty similar, below average teams with much better offenses than defenses, but the Lions are a better version of the Bears, with a significant edge in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking two points above average, 9th best in the NFL, with the 23rd ranked Bears are 1.5 points below average. My roster rankings also support that, giving the Lions a 1.5-point edge on offense. The Lions rank dead last in defensive efficiency, so they are worse on that side of the ball, but the Bears rank 28th and have been horrendous defensively since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, so the gap isn’t much between these two defenses, with the Lions having the clear edge on offense. 

Despite the Lions being the better team, the Bears are favored by a full field goal at home, suggesting they are the better team. My calculated line is even and the Lions could easily end up pulling the upset, even if my numbers still have the Bears as slight favorites to win straight up. There isn’t quite enough here for the Lions to be worth betting, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Chicago Bears 28 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Detroit Lions (1-6)

The Packers have started 3-5, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 16th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 31st. All in all, the Packers rank just 20th in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 1.5 points below average, and my roster rankings only have them slightly higher, about a half point above average. Despite the big name at quarterback, this team isn’t much more than a slightly above average team any way you look at it.

The Packers get to face the one-win Lions this week, but this isn’t as easy of a matchup as it seems, as the Lions are just 4.5 points behind them in my roster rankings and 2.5 points behind in schedule adjusted efficiency, with four of the Lions’ six losses coming by four points or fewer. Making matters worse, the Packers are on the road and they just haven’t had the same success away from Lambeau in Aaron Rodgers career, in large part due to Aaron Rodgers having a 10 point drop in QB rating on the road in his career, well above average. My calculated line has the Packers favored by one and, while they should still be favored to win this game, they could easily lose and, even if they don’t, about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, so we’re getting good line value with the Lions at +3.5. They’re bettable at that number.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 30

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5)

This is one of the toughest calls of the week, as both teams are probably a little overrated. The Lions began the season as the highest scoring team in the league through 4 games, averaging 35.0 points per game, before being held to six points in their past two games by the Patriots and Cowboys. The common thinking seems to be that the Lions’ dominant offensive start was somewhat legitimate and that they just happened to run into dominant defenses the past two weeks, but I don’t think that’s correct. Even with the last two games taken into account, the Lions still rank 9th in the NFL in points per game at 24.3, but, in terms of first down rate, which is much more predictive than points, the Lions rank just 14th.

That’s still pretty solid, but it’s a big concern for a Lions team that has one of the worst defenses in the league and relies on their offense’s ability to keep up in shootouts to win games. A year after ranking 30th in defensive efficiency, about 4 points below average, the Lions have somehow been even worse this season, ranking dead last, about 5.5 points below average, especially struggling since losing two of their better players, safety Tracy Walker and edge defender Charles Harris, due to injuries a few weeks back. This week, they will be without starting cornerback Mike Hughes and starting safety Deshon Elliott as well. Because of their defensive struggles, the Lions rank just 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4.5 points below average.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 4-1 in games started by Tua Tagovailoa, but they aren’t blowing teams out, with their only win by more than a touchdown coming against the Patriots, in a game in which they won the turnover margin by 3, but lost the first down rate battle by 0.85% and only won the yards per play battle by 0.18, a concern because yards and first downs are significantly more predictive week-to-week than turnovers. The Dolphins still rank 14th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on yards per play and first down rate, even with the injuries they’ve had at quarterback, but my roster rankings suggest this line should favor the Dolphins by 3 more than it should favor the by 3.5, a big difference considering how many games are decided by 3 points exactly.

In total, about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, with 1 in 4 games decided by a field goal or less. In large part because of this, 3.5-point underdogs cover more often than any other line, doing so at a 53.0% rate, actually enough to be profitable in the long run. A line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize, in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3, and as a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is. That alone isn’t enough for the Lions to be worth betting and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Dolphins won by more than a field goal, but the Lions are the pick for pick ‘em purposes by the slimmest of margins. At -3, I would take the Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins 30 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: None