Lions

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Falcons, Lions

Atlanta Falcons (12-2) Detroit Lions (4-10)

Normally I like going against huge line movements because I hate week to week overreactions. This line was Atlanta -1 last week and now it’s at -4.5, skipping over two key numbers of 3 and 4. At first glance, this appears warranted. The Lions got blown out by the crappy Cardinals in Arizona, losing 38-10, while the Falcons got a huge home win over the solid Giants, winning 34-0. However, it’s important to think about what those games really mean.

Atlanta definitely proved they can turn it on and not just compete with some of the better teams in the league, but win convincingly, something they hadn’t done all year. There were a lot of reasonable concerns about how their long list of less than convincing victories against mediocre teams would translate into games against tougher opponents, which they really hadn’t had a lot of (Denver way back in week 2 when Peyton Manning wasn’t Peyton Manning yet is the only projected playoff team they’ve played this year, besides the Giants).

However, that long list still exists. They beat Carolina by 2 and then lost the rematch in Carolina by 10 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. They beat Tampa Bay by just 1, Oakland by just 3, Arizona by just 4, Dallas by just 6, and then lost in New Orleans. They won the rematch with the Saints by 10 in a game that was closer than the final score and before the Giants’ game, that was probably their most impressive win.

Just because the Falcons blew out the Giants, doesn’t mean they’ll stop playing down to the level of their competition against mediocre opponents, like these Lions. In fact, I think it makes it more likely. After their big Thursday Night win over the Saints, the Falcons had their worst game of the season the following week in Carolina.

For that reason, I like getting the 4.5 points with them. Detroit has a terrible record, but they’ve played a lot of good teams close. They’re like the anti-Falcons in a way. They always play superior teams close, but can’t get it done. Only 2 of their 10 losses have been by more than 8, including 4 losses by 4 or fewer points. I’m expecting more of the same when these two teams get together, a close game in which the Falcons find a way to win and the Lions find a way to lose.

As a result of the Lions’ long list of close wins and the ridiculous 10 return touchdowns that have gone against them this season, the Lions actually rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. The Falcons do rank 4th at 0.71 and if you take the difference between those, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points to Detroit’s side for home field, you get that Atlanta should be -5.5, so we’re still getting line value with the Falcons, in spite of the huge line movement, at least at first glance.

However, if we look at DVOA, which takes things like schedule into account, we see that Atlanta ranks 9th in regular and 12th in weighted, while the Lions rank 14th and 16th respectively. That defeats any line value that we might have been getting with the Falcons and I think we’re actually getting line value with the Lions thanks to that huge line movement.

Going back to the events of last week that caused that huge line movement, I think the Lions just completely overlooked the Cardinals, who were on a 9 game losing streak and had previously gotten blown out by 58-0. They still outgained the Cardinals 312-196, but lost because of 2 return touchdowns and a special teams fumble deep in their own territory. I think it was a bit of a fluke, because, as I mentioned, previously they had only lost 1 game by more than 8 all season, including none by more than 10.

That big loss actually makes it more likely they cover this week, as, like the Cardinals last week, they’re the ones coming off the embarrassing game. Dogs are 89-57 ATS off a 28+ point loss, including 29-13 ATS off an ATS loss of 31+. Teams tend to be overlooked, embarrassed, and undervalued in this spot. They’re certainly undervalued after that huge line movement with the public still all over the Falcons. I like to fade the public because they always lose money in the long run. I think the Lions will also be embarrassed, especially at home on national television, and they’ll probably be overlooked too.

I say probably because this is a nationally televised game, so the Falcons might be more focused than they otherwise would be, but then again, they barely beat Dallas on national television earlier this year. Still, that is the first reason why this isn’t a significant play. The 2nd is that the Lions are in a bad spot as home dogs before being home dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. Teams are 25-55 ATS in this spot since 2002. However, the Lions should still be the right side as I’m expecting a close game.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Sharps lean: DET 13 ATL 10

Final thoughts: No change.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against spread: Detroit +4.5 (-110) 2 units

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Detroit Lions: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 4-10

Net points per drive: -0.02 (15th)

DVOA: -0.5% (14th)

Weighted DVOA: -1.0% (16th)

The Lions have had some bad luck with losing close, winnable games and having turnovers returned for touchdowns (they’ve had a ridiculous 10 turnovers/punts/kickoffs returned for touchdown this year), but they are the league’s most underachieving team this year and, with games against Atlanta and Chicago left, almost definitely this year’s team that goes from the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins. In a passing league, somehow the league’s #1 passing offense is at 4-10, while the league’s #32 passing offense (Minnesota) is at 8-6 and competing for a playoff spot, in the same division.

The Lions have some interesting bounce back potential next year (one team does the opposite, from 5 wins to the playoffs, every year, as well). They also have an interesting decision to make on Head Coach Jim Schwartz’s future. I’d say they should keep him simply because he took this team from 0-16 to the playoffs in a few years, but I could understand letting him go.

Detroit

Studs

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 10 passes for 121 yards on 16 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

LOLB DeAndre Levy: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Justin Durant: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 2 attempts

FS Don Carey: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 1 attempt

DT Ndamukong Suh: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 24 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

QB Matt Stafford: 24 of 50 for 246 yards, 3 interceptions, 3 drops, 3 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 55.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 52 drop backs (2 sacks, 4 of 14, 3 throw aways, 1 drop)

TE Tony Scheffler: Caught 3 passes for 36 yards on 7 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception

TE Tony Heller: Caught 2 passes for 18 yards on 3 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch

WR Kris Durham: Caught 1 pass for 14 yards on 5 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 10.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Jonte Green: Allowed 5 catches for 52 yards on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 11 yards on 4 attempts

RE Lawrence Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LE Cliff Avril: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Detroit Lions: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 26 (-1)

Record: 4-9

Net points per drive: 0.09 (14th)

DVOA: 2.3% (13th)

Weighted DVOA: -2.4% (12th)

Detroit took another step towards being this year’s team that goes from a playoff spot to 5 wins or fewer by losing to the Lions and dropping to 4-9. 1-2 over their final 3 games clinches that and only next week’s game against the Cardinals offers an easy game. I don’t think see beating the Falcons or Bears.

Studs

LT Jeff Backus: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 52 pass block snaps

RT Gosder Cherilus: Did not allow a pressure on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

C Dominic Raiola: Did not allow a pressure on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 7 attempts

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 10 passes for 118 yards on 13 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 1.9 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

DT Nick Fairley: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Lawrence Jackson: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

Duds

LG Rob Sims: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 3 attempts

TE Tony Scheffler: Caught 3 passes for 20 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts on 49 pass snaps, 0.7 YAC per catch

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers

Detroit Lions (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4)

This is a really interesting game. Earlier this week, I wrote about some of the parity related things that happen every single year and how those could be used to help predict games the rest of the way. The Lions are by far the likeliest candidate to be this year’s team that goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Only the Saints and Lions are 2011 playoff teams with 5 or wins right now and the Saints would have to lose out to finish 5-11, highly unlikely. The Lions, however, stand at 4-8 and will only be favored in one more game the rest of the way so chalk gets them to 5-11 and fulfills the requirement.

The Packers, meanwhile, are the most likely candidate to be this year’s team that goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. Keep in mind, that’s happened every year in at least the same decade, while the trend mentioned in the first paragraph has happened in every season except one in at least the last decade. The Packers are the only team who had a first round bye last year with 4 or more losses currently. The Packers also need to miss the playoffs for this to be the 18th straight year with 5 new playoff teams because there’s essentially 7 returning playoff teams already locked into playoff spots.

They will need to go 2-2 or worse over their final 4 games to miss the playoffs and a team like Tampa Bay, Dallas, or Minnesota will need to win out. Tampa Bay looks by far the most likely to do so as that would require just winning in New Orleans, not as daunting as it once was, and winning in Atlanta week 17, when they will likely be resting starters. The Packers will be dogs in just one of their final 4 games, at Chicago next week, so they’ll have to lose once as favorites if they are going to miss the playoffs.

All that being said, we can’t really use much of that to predict any outcome here, based off just that. If Detroit wins here, it would go a long way towards knocking Green Bay out of the playoffs, but that would mean they’d also have to lose in Arizona next week if they’re going to finish with 5 wins or fewer, which I guess could happen if they’re flat off a huge win in essentially their Super Bowl, but the Cardinals really, really suck.

Technically, I guess we can say that if we throw out the assumption that a 2011 playoff team will win 5 or fewer games this season, Detroit seems like the logical choice. That would be only the 2nd time in over a decade that’s happened, but history says it’s more likely that something like that happens than all 4 teams who had first round byes last year returning to the playoffs this year.

Green Bay could also easily lose week 17 in Minnesota anyway, so they don’t necessarily have to lose here to fulfill that requirement. Besides, if they did, it would make it much more likely they’d pull an upset next week as Rodgers is deadly as dogs off a loss. Besides, Detroit is having major issues closing games, so I don’t know I trust them to win anyway, especially in Green Bay.

This team has lost a ridiculous 4 of their 8 losses by 4 or fewer points and they are 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That could even out in the long run, as it typically does. Teams that lose a game by a touchdown or less win the following game 48% of the time if it’s decided by a touchdown or less. A perfect example is that Matt Stafford and the Lions were actually 5-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year. I just don’t know if I trust them to straight up win here.

However, that doesn’t mean they can’t cover this 6.5 point spread though, in fact, it makes it more likely that they will. They haven’t really been blown out by anyone. None of their losses have come by more than 10 points and only 1 has come by more than 8 points. Because of this, their -15 points differential is much better than their 4-8 record. I don’t know if I trust them to win a huge game like this on the road, but they could definitely keep it close once again, much like they did the last time these two teams met.

Going off that points differential, the Lions actually rank 14th in net points per drive, actually only one spot lower than Green Bay. If we use net points per drive to compute real line, we get a line of Green Bay -3. Even though Green Bay ranks much better in DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account like strength of schedule) than net points per drive, ranking 5th, I still feel like this line is too high.

Green Bay is an overrated team right now. The odds makers know they can inflate the line on them based on reputation and people will still bet them. It should come as no surprise that the Packers are getting pounded by the public. I love to fade the public, especially on heavy public leans, when it feels appropriate and this is one of those weeks.

The Packers are really not healthy right now. If they can get healthy by the playoffs, I admit they’ll be a very scary team, but right now, they’re just not the team they once were. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks have left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature back, running behind an offensive line that struggles both to run block and pass protect. Bryan Bulaga is out for the season and TJ Lang, who moved from guard to right tackle in his absence, might miss this one too. Undrafted free agent Don Barclay, who sucked last week in his absence, might get this start.

On the defensive side of the ball, Clay Matthews is expected out once again, leaving the Packers without their top pass rusher and with only one of the 4 starting linebackers they entered into Training Camp with. Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop are on IR, while DJ Smith, who replaced Bishop, is also on IR. Matthews’ injury is the killer as they don’t have another pass rusher with him and Perry out. Charles Woodson could return this week, but if he does, he’s expected to be limited in his first game back after missing over a month.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Matthews and Bishop are out and Woodson will again be limited at best. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams as the only one of those 7 currently healthy and playing near his 2010 level. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.7 points per game. That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #12 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +6. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

Look at the Packers’ last 6 games and I’ll show you what I mean. Their only win by more than 10 in that stretch was before their bye and this is despite playing Arizona, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and these Lions, who lost by just 4 a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the only real team they played during that stretch, the Giants, absolutely blew them out. Even more embarrassing, that blowout win for the Giants was sandwiched in between straight up losses as road dogs to the Bengals and Redskins. That’s why I say the Packers are overrated right now and why I think they have a good chance to miss the playoffs. They can definitely win here, but it will probably be another close game.

The trends are not in Green Bay’s favor either. Detroit is also dogs before and after being favorites coming off a loss, a situation teams are 52-22 ATS in since 2008. Teams tend to be extra focused for a tough opponent coming off an upset loss, knowing that there’s an easy game on the horizon. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs. Detroit is dogs here and will be favorites in Arizona next week, while Green Bay is favorites and will next be dogs in Chicago.

Going off of that, road dogs are 14-7 ATS before being road favorites since 2011, 16-8 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs. Finally, teams are 15-47 ATS as divisional home favorite before being divisional road dogs, 4-26 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. All of this is very, very hard to ignore. I won’t pick Detroit to pull the upset, but I’m very confident this will be a close game.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: DET 11 GB 7

Final thoughts: I’m taking the money line too. I don’t know exactly which team will win, but I love the value with the money line in a game I think will be a real tossup. All the trends say Detroit and who knows, maybe they’ll actually close out a close game this week. Even if they don’t, I love their chances of keeping it close.

Detroit Lions 30 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +250

Pick against spread: Detroit +6.5 (-110) 4 units

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Detroit Lions: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 20 (-6)

Record: 4-8

Net points per drive: 0.13 (14th)

DVOA: 0.9 (14th)

Weighted DVOA: 0.8 (15th)

Studs

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 78 yards on 4 attempts

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 13 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 2.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

FS Don Carey: Did not allow a catch on 4 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Sammie Lee Hill: 2 quarterback hurries on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop

DT Nick Fairley: 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

DT Ndamukong Suh: 1 sack, 4 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 46 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

K Jason Hanson: 8 kickoffs, 8 touchbacks, 71.5 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s starting distance, 4/4 FG (31, 33, 48, 52)

Duds

RB Mikel Leshoure: Rushed for 57 yards (40 after contact) and a touchdown on 21 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for 16 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps

LT Jeff Backus: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

WR Mike Thomas: Caught 1 pass for -1 yard on 4 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Jacob Lacey: Allowed 7 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

LOLB DeAndre Levy: Allowed 5 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Colts, Lions

Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

The Lions are in a bad spot and normally this is the type of team I like to stay away from. They are favorites after a loss as dogs and will next be dogs. Last week, they lost to the Texans and next week they have to go to Green Bay. That’s called a sandwich game. Teams tend to take it easy in the middle part of that 3 game stretch because they are coming off a tough loss and have another tough game next on the schedule, with an easier game in the middle. Teams are 59-83 ATS in this spot since 2008.

It especially hurts that this game is a non-conference matchup and that their next game is against a divisional opponent, especially since a hated divisional opponent like the Packers. Non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs are 32-61 ATS since 2002 and teams have tended to struggle before playing the Packers over the past 2 years anyway. In the last 2 seasons, teams are 9-18 ATS before playing the Packers.

The Colts, meanwhile, will be extra focused. They are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 97-57 ATS in over the last 2 seasons. When you combine that with the sandwich game trend, you find out that teams are 111-57 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs. Yes, the Colts have a divisional matchup next, but because they are dogs as they will next be favorites, it won’t matter much. Since 2002, non-conference dogs are 67-44 ATS before being divisional favorites. It seems to matter more that the Lions have a divisional game next. If we go to back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 33-19 ATS as non-conference dogs before being divisional favorites when their opponent will next be divisional dogs.

However, all this does assume that the Lions will take the Colts lightly and they could easily not. Yes, they are in a bad spot, but the Colts aren’t some scrubs. They are 7-4 and isn’t pretty hard to overlook a 7-4 team. The Lions, meanwhile, are 4-7 so while they may technically be favorites, they might not act like favorites on the field because their opponents have 3 more wins than them. In fact, if you look at history, teams are 72-61 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who has 3+ more wins than them. That’s not strong enough to be considered a trend, but it’s worth noting.

That asks the question, if Detroit has 3 fewer wins than Indianapolis, why are they favorites here and why favorites by 5 whole points? This is just the 20th time since 1989 that a team has been favored by 5 or more points against a team with 3+ more wins than them (they are 11-8 ATS, which is also worth noting). The public seems to be asking that question an awful lot this week because there’s a pretty strong public lean on the Colts, which is rare with dogs.

The answer is, I believe, that the Colts are not as good as their record would suggest and the Lions are better than their record would suggest. Using the net points per drive method of computing line value, this line should actually be Detroit -9. That might not make sense at first, but it will once you know that Detroit is actually -13 in points differential this year and Indianapolis, despite their record, is -43.

This method of computing line value doesn’t take into account things like special teams and strength of schedule, but DVOA does, so we can look at that to confirm what net points per drive tells us (DVOA is a formula based heavily on net points per drive, which takes into account strength of schedule and other things). In DVOA, Detroit ranks 11th in both regular and weighted (weighted weights more recent games heavier), while Indianapolis ranks 28th and 27th respectively.

In net points per drive, Detroit ranks 13th, while Indianapolis ranks 23th, so the gap is even bigger when we take into account schedule, which makes sense. Indianapolis plays in the easier conference in one of the easiest divisions in football and is playing a last place schedule (and has yet to face the toughest team in their division, Houston, at all). Detroit, meanwhile, plays in the tougher NFC in arguably the toughest division in football and is playing a 2nd place schedule. The NFC, by the way, is 27-19 against the AFC this season, which is why I say they have the tougher conference.

The reason Indianapolis has such a poor points differential in comparison to their record is that they’ve been blown out on several occasions and they only have one win by more than a touchdown. Their biggest win was by 17, while they’ve lost games by 20, 26, and 25. They are 7-4 because they are 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, but that’s unsustainable.

Teams who win a game by a touchdown or less win their next game 52% of the time if it’s decided by a touchdown or less. Most of the time, there’s less skill involved specifically in winning close games than you think (there is skill involved in outplaying opponents, but not in consistently winning close games). The exception is teams with elite quarterbacks and I don’t think Andrew Luck is there yet. Detroit, meanwhile, hasn’t lost a single game by more than 10 all season.

The notable thing about the Colts’ 3 blowout losses is that they were all on the road. They really haven’t been a good road team this season. They are 5-1 at home, but only 2-3 on the road with 2 wins against crappy Jacksonville and crappy Tennessee, along with those 3 losses. They’re just 1-3 ATS as road dogs. They got blown out by the Jets on the road. That’s ridiculous! Andrew Luck’s home/road splits are very notable. His completion percentage and YPA is the same pretty much both home and away, but at home, he has 9 touchdowns to 3 picks and on the road, he has 4 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, which is perfectly understandable for a rookie.

Now that we’ve established that this line not only makes sense, but might actually be too low, it’s time to talk about line movement. This line actually opened at -3.5, but it’s now -5, despite action being on Indianapolis. This is what’s called reverse line movement and it’s often the sign of a trap line. It’s rare that you’ll see a trap line that wants more action on the dog, but this is a pretty rare case where we’re actually getting a ton of line value with the favorite.

Besides, I love fading the public, especially when they back a dog. The odds makers always make money in the long run so siding with them (and against the public) isn’t a bad idea, especially when the public is backing a dog. Odds makers want two things, to make money and for favorites and dogs to cover evenly (so the public can’t key in on just one). The public rarely backs a dog, but when they do, it’s a risky bet and that’s even in cases where it’s not a trap line. This is a special case.

I wish the Lions were in a better situation trends wise, but it’s definitely possible they won’t overlook their opponent just because their opponent has such a good record. The Lions do have a few things going for them trends wise. Home favorites are 9-4 ATS since 1989 off back-to-back losses at home. Meanwhile, home teams are 15-8 ATS since 1989 off back-to-back losses as home dogs, including 3-2 ATS as favorites. They’re also rested off a Thursday game, as teams are 117-97 ATS on a Sunday after a Thursday game since 1989. Meanwhile, teams are 26-10 ATS since 2002 off a loss at home in overtime, excluding road dogs. It’s a medium sized play on the Lions, who should be the right side in this one. Detroit is also my survivor pick in a super shitty week for survivor plays.

Public lean: Indianapolis (70% range)

Sharps lean: IND 16 DET 14

Final update: No change. Like the Jets’ line, this line has gone up to -6 in some places, which could bring the six and six rule into play. However, I still like the Lions for a big play. The line going up to 6 means we have opposite line movement because the public is on Indianapolis. Maybe this game will be decided by exactly 6. Maybe this will be an exception to the rule. I really feel like Detroit covers here and I like getting them at lower than 6. At 6 or more, it probably wouldn’t be a big play.

Detroit Lions 31 Indianapolis Colts 20 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, SEA, DAL, DEN)

Pick against spread: Detroit -5 (-110) 3 units

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Detroit Lions: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 25 (+5)

Record: 4-7

Net points per drive: 0.16 (13th)

DVOA: 4.0% (11th)

Weighted DVOA: 5.0% (11th)

Tier 5: Teams many predicted to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but that are long shots now

Studs

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 8 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts on 66 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

ROLB Justin Durant: 8 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 catches for 20 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts

DT Ndamukong Suh: 3 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps, no tackles

Duds

LG Rob Sims: Allowed 7 quarterback hurries on 67 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 67 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 23 yards and a touchdown on 1 attempt

CB Drayton Florence: Allowed 7 catches for 79 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

LOLB DeAndre Levy: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, allowed 1 catch for 15 yards on 3 attempts

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, no tackles

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Detroit Lions: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 19 (-6)

Record: 4-6

I’ve said it a bunch of times this year, but every year, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. It’s looked like a shaky prediction as times this year, especially since every single playoff team from last year is 5-5 or better right now, except one (Saints and Bengals are both 5-5, so they’re still technically candidates). The Lions are that one team and if you look at their remaining schedule, it’s not hard to imagine some way they go 1-5 over their final 6 games. They host Houston and Indianapolis, go to Green Bay and Arizona, then host Atlanta and Chicago.

Studs

RT Gosder Cherilus: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 5 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 49 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Nick Fairley: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

QB Matt Stafford: 17 of 39 for 266 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 2 drops, pressured on 17 of 46 drop backs (5 sacks, 1 scramble, 6 of 11, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception)

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 7 quarterback hurries on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 4 attempts

LT Riley Reiff: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

TE Tony Scheffler: Caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 10 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Titus Young: Caught 1 pass for 24 yards on 7 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch, 2 penalties, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Brandon Pettigrew: Caught 4 passes for 22 yards on 6 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 5 pass block snaps

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 33 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RB Stefan Logan: 1 punt return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, 2 kickoff returns for 45 yards

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Houston Texans at Detroit Lions: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, Texans

Houston Texans (9-1) at Detroit Lions (5-5)

Every year the Lions have a Thanksgiving home game and every year they struggle. They’ve covered just once in their last 9 Thanksgiving home games. Even last year when they were good and made the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they didn’t play well on Thanksgiving, losing 27-15 against the Green Bay Packers. Most of these losses haven’t even been close: 20-12 in 2002, 41-9 in 2004 (2003 was the year they won), 27-7 in 2005, 27-10 in 2006, 37-26 in 2007, 47-10 in 2008, 34-12 in 2009, 45-24 in 2010, and then of course the game last year.

However, this year they are in a good spot on Thanksgiving. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 15-4 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites (the Lions host the Colts next week), though when you go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 21-15 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. Still, it’s a good spot for the Lions.

We’re also getting some line value with the Lions. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of calculating line value (which Houston leads the league in), says this line should be Houston -4.5, but the yards per play differential method says that Detroit should actually be favored by 2.5 points. Average those out and you get that this line should be around Houston -1. This line was closer to that earlier this week, but heavy action on the Texans has driven it all the way up to Houston -3.5. Given that the odds makers have lost a lot of money over the past 3 weeks and they’re bound to make it up, it’s not a smart idea to take heavy public leans this week, though I guess it’s good to see the line moving in the correct direction. There’s no opposite line movement here.

The Texans are in a good spot too though. Teams are 10-3 ATS off an overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. It seems that almost suffering a major upset has the same impact as actually suffering a major upset (teams do really well after suffering a major upset as well). It’s a big wakeup call and I expect the Texans to be 100% this week. Remember the Patriots after their overtime win against the Jets (45-7) and even the 49ers last week after their tie with the Rams? The Texans are that caliber of a team. The Lions, meanwhile, are just 7-12 ATS since 2001 after playing the Packers, which is something that could have an impact on this game.

There’s a lot of conflicting stuff going on in this one and it would be a zero unit pick if I did them, but gun to my head, I’d take Houston in this one, though it’d be low in any confidence pools. The reason is that, almost every year one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Detroit is at 4-6 right now, while the rest of last year’s playoff teams are all 5-5 or better.

I’m probably going to bet against all 3 of last year’s playoff teams with 5 wins or fewer this week, especially Detroit because they look like the favorite to do so (their remaining schedule is brutal: vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, @ Arizona, vs. Atlanta, and vs. Chicago). With a 3.5 point spread, it’s conceivable the Lions could cover and not win (about 25% of the time when 3.5 point dogs lose, they still cover), which is why I would have preferred this line at -2, where it was earlier this week, but I don’t think Detroit wins this one, especially considering their history on Thanksgiving. It’s a very small play on Houston. I also like the under as the under is 72-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Houston Texans 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 50.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (4-5)

I don’t think it’s possible to talk about the Packers without first talking about how bad their injury situation has gotten. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting rush linebacker Nick Perry on injured reserve. Jordy Nelson returns for this one, but Greg Jennings remains out. Defensively, key players Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews have already been ruled out for this one.

In a way, this injury situation is worse than it was in 2010. In 2010, the sheer volume of injuries they had was ridiculous, but they were able to keep key players like Jennings, Matthews, and Woodson healthy all year. They never lost a player as talented and important as anyone in that trio. Matthews’ injury will be the key one since that’s the most recent one. Without him and Perry, they don’t have much chance of getting any pressure on Matt Stafford this week. Those are their starting rush linebackers and their defensive line is once again getting minimal pressure on the quarterback. They already ranked 31st in the league in pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(hurries)/pass rush snaps), only ahead of the Saints, so losing Matthews, who is 4th at his position in pass rush efficiency, they’re in real trouble.

They were able to rank 2nd in opponent’s scoring in 2010 despite injuries because Matthews, Woodson, and Bishop stayed healthy and because BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Nick Collins, and Tramon Williams all played at a Pro-Bowl level. Jenkins left as a free agent and wasn’t really replaced. Collins had to retire because of injuries. Raji is having a 2nd straight down year. Only Williams is playing close to the level he was playing at in 2010. They’ve added a couple nice young players to the mix like Casey Hayward, but this is nowhere near the defense it was in 2010 so the situations aren’t comparable. They’re not as good as they were in 2010 and they’re certainly not as good as they were last year in the regular season.

Last year, they didn’t exactly play great defense either, but they were able to make up for it with a combination of an incredible turnover differential and one of the best offensive outputs of all time. After going +24 in turnovers last year and forcing 38 takeaways, this year they are just +4 with 12 takeaways through 9 games. After scoring 35.0 points per game last year, they are at just 26.6 per game this year, thanks to injuries to receivers, most notably Jennings, as well as struggles on the ground and on the offensive line, which will only get worse with Bulaga out. That might still seem like a lot of points, and it is, but compared to last year and with the team still having issues defensively, it’s enough to knock them out of the ranks as an elite team. They’re not bad at all. I just think they’re overrated.

For instance, they are 3.5 point favorites here in Detroit. Normally teams dominate as road favorites out of a bye, going 43-15 ATS in this situation since 2002, including 21-3 ATS in the division. However, the Packers don’t deserve to be road favorites against a good Detroit team this week and as we saw with the Chargers in Cleveland a few weeks ago, if you don’t deserve to be road favorites, that trend doesn’t do you a ton of good.

The yards per play differential method of computing the real line gives us a real line of Detroit -4.5, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing real line says this should be a pick em. Neither of them say that Green Bay deserves to be road favorites. In fact, if you average them out, they say that Detroit should at least be favored by a couple of points here at home.

Detroit is also in a nice spot. Divisional home dogs are 11-5 ATS off a loss as divisional road favorites since 2002, 49-35 ATS since 1989. Given how much the public is pounding Green Bay (the public always loses in the long run), I like Detroit for a couple of units. I am a little scared to go against Rodgers, who can always go into eff you mode like he did against Houston.

Public lean: Green Bay (90% range)

Sharps lean: GB 15 DET 11

Final update: No change.

Detroit Lions 31 Green Bay Packers 30 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Detroit +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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