Lions

Detroit Lions: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 19 (-3)

Record: 4-5

Every year one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. However, this year, 9 games in, all 12 of last year’s playoff teams have at least 4 wins. That means either this won’t happen this year (only one time in the past decade it didn’t happen) or either the Bengals, Lions, or Saints will go 1-6 in their final 7 games. I think the Bengals are the ones who are the most likely to do so because I think they’re the leat talented of the bunch. That being said, look at Detroit’s schedule the rest of the way: vs. Green Bay, vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, @ Arizona, vs. Atlanta, vs. Chicago. No easy home games. We can’t rule them out, however talented they are.

Studs

QB Matt Stafford: 28 of 42 for 329 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 1 hit as thrown, 3 drops, 98.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 46 drop backs (2 sacks, 5 of 8, 1 touchdown, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

LG Rob Sims: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 12 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 9.1 YAC per catch

CB Jacob Lacey: Allowed 4 catches for 11 yards on 6 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Justin Durant: 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 3 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 4 attempts

DT Nick Fairley: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 penalty

Duds

RB Mikel Leshoure: Rushed for 43 yards (34 after contact) on 13 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop

SS Erik Coleman: Allowed 4 catches for 71 yards on 5 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

LOLB DeAndre Levy: Allowed 5 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

FS Ricardo Silva: Allowed 1 catch for 31 yards on 1 attempt, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Willie Young: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Lawrence Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Lions, Vikings

Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

Like Indianapolis +1 at Jacksonville, this game is one I really wished I would have made a play on last week. Like Jacksonville, Minnesota was a favorite last week in the early line for this game, -2.5, but now they are +2.5 here at home, a massive line movement. If they had been favorites here, we would have had three powerful trends working against Minnesota. For one, they would be divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to Chicago in their next game. Teams are 14-47 ATS in this spot since 2002.

Two, the Vikings would have been favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs. This is the classic sandwich game situation, coming off a loss to Seattle and going into Chicago in their next game. Teams are 57-82 ATS in this spot since 2002. Three, the Lions would have been road dogs trying to avenge a same season home upset loss. Teams are 50-25 ATS since 2002.

The Lions are still in a few good spots, this week, though not as good as if the Vikings would have been favored. Home dogs are 53-71 ATS before a bye since 2002, which is a situation the Vikings are in, including 10-19 ATS if they’re going to be touchdown dogs after the bye. Meanwhile, teams that have yet to have their bye are 4-13 ATS since 1989 as home dogs. That doesn’t happen often, but it makes sense. Teams are exhausted from playing 9 games in 9 weeks and teams that are home dogs tend to be inferior teams. Being exhausted and inferior is a bad combination. Finally, road favorites are 48-29 ATS off a win as road favorites. The Lions won in Jacksonville last week. It’s not as strong, but the trends are with Detroit.

Furthermore, unlike in the Jacksonville/Indianapolis game, this line movement is legitimate, or at least more legitimate, not one where I would be really scared to still take the Lions despite all the action being on them and despite the huge line movement and despite the odds makers getting slaughtered last week (2-12) and needing a bounce back week. That’s why I didn’t make a play on Indianapolis last night. I seemed like a set up.

The reason this line movement is more legitimate is that it’s injury related. Percy Harvin is out for the Vikings and, aside from Adrian Peterson, he’s their only offensive weapon. He’s also an asset on special teams and scored on a return against the Lions in the Vikings’ win over them early this year. Without Harvin, life just gets harder for Christian Ponder and it’s pretty hard for him to begin with.

In his last 4 games, Christian Ponder completed 73 of 126 (57.9%) for 724 yards (5.7 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all less than stellar team performances (0-3-1 ATS, 1-3 SU). Unsurprisingly, he had his worst game last week, going 11 of 22 for 63 yards and a pick, when Harvin didn’t play the whole game and was playing hurt. The only reason it was even close against Seattle was because Adrian Peterson went nuts, but as talented as he is, he can’t do it by himself.

That promising start 4-1 with wins over San Francisco and Detroit seems like a thing of the past. That’s another reason why this line movement is legitimate, that and the fact that Detroit is suddenly soaring. Ever since their bye,  they are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS and have been playing especially well since Nate Burleson got hurt, allowing young receivers Titus Young and Ryan Broyles to get more playing time.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings. The rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Minnesota -1, while the yards per play differential method says this line should be Minnesota -2.5. However, that doesn’t take into account Ponder’s struggles, Harvin’s absence, and the Lions’ rejuvenance since the bye. I think this line of Detroit -2.5 is perfectly reasonable and the trends are with Detroit as well. Detroit +2.5 would have been a significant bet, so as long as this line is -3 or smaller, I’m taking the Lions. That’s being said, it’s a small play because this seems like a very bad week to bet on a huge public lean given that the odds makers got killed last week.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Minnesota covers)

Sharps lean: DET 22 MIN 3

Final update: Sharps love Detroit more than anyone this week. The Vikings are reeling ans losing Harvin is really like losing a quarterback to most teams. I’ll add a unit.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Detroit Lions: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 20 (+4)

Record: 4-4

With the NFC East struggling lately outside of the Giants and the NFC West struggling lately outside of San Francisco and Seattle (who the Lions beat), the Lions are suddenly right back in the thick of things after a disappointing 1-3 start. I think they rank firmly ahead of Philadelphia, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona, St. Louis, and Washington right now and will be battling the Bears/Packers, Seahawks, and the upstart Buccaneers for the NFC’s 2 wild cards. The schedule won’t be easy, starting with a key game against a struggling and banged up but still 5-4 Minnesota this week in Minneapolis, a team that beat the Lions in Detroit earlier this season. That game could easily have playoff implications. They also face Green Bay twice, Chicago, Houston, and Atlanta and host the Colts in a game that won’t be easy either.

Studs

RB Joique Bell: Rushed for 73 yards (33 after contact) and a touchdown on 13 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 3 passes for 36 yards on 4 attempts

QB Matt Stafford: 22 of 33 for 285 yards, 2 throw aways, 2 drops, 100.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 34 drop backs (1 sack, 2 of 8, 2 throw aways)

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 7 passes for 129 yards on 8 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 5.3 YAC per catch

WR Ryan Broyles: Caught 6 passes for 52 yards on 6 attempts on 17 pass snaps, 5.3 YAC per catch

LG Rob Sims: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 2 attempts

C Dominic Raiola: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 32 yards on 8 attempts

RG Stephen Peterman: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

RT Gosder Cherilus: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 21 yards on 4 attempts

SS Erik Coleman: Allowed 3 catches for 52 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

WR Titus Young: Caught 2 passes for 20 yards on 5 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Brandon Pettigrew: Caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 2 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LT Jeff Backus: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 2 attempts

DT Ndamukong Suh: Didn’t allow a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles

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Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Lions

Detroit Lions (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)

Nate Burleson getting hurt might have been the best thing that could possibly happen to the Lions’ offense. It forced the Lions to replace the mediocre Burleson, who was averaging 8.9 yards per catch and (5.6 yards per target), with explosive 2011 2nd round pick Titus Young and it’s also given 2nd round rookie Ryan Broyles more playing time too. It’s no coincidence that their offense looked by far the best it has all season, and against a tough Seattle defense nonetheless, in their first game without Burleson last week, even with Calvin Johnson playing at less than 100%.

They already rank 8th in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Those two stats don’t take into account special teams yardage, which is one of their flaws. Detroit had horrific special teams earlier this season, but as you could expect, that eventually settled down. If they can get Matt Stafford going like they did last week, they’re not going to be fun to play.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is absolutely horrible. I know the Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation, but in every statistic other than turnovers, the Jaguars are worse and turnover differential tends to be very inconsistent. If the Chiefs and Jaguars were to play on a neutral field, I’d probably pick the Chiefs. In rate of sustaining drives differential, they rank dead last at -15.0%. No one else is worse than -10.3%. In yards per play differential, they rank dead last at -1.2. No one else is worse than -0.9.

If we use rate of sustaining drives differential and yards per play differential to calculate real line, we get a real line of -7 in favor of Detroit in each instance, so we are getting some line value and that’s not taking into account that Detroit has the momentum right now and that Jacksonville is without Maurice Jones-Drew once again. Replacement Rashad Jennings has just 149 yards on 51 carries in the absence of someone who had been over 40% of their offense in the last 2 years.

It’s not a big play on Detroit though because Detroit is a heavy public lean and Detroit’s upcoming schedule is brutal (@ Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. Houston). Road favorites before being dogs in 3 or more straight are 20-39 ATS since 1989. They might not be completely focused for this one, but I can’t bet Jacksonville, especially against a now underrated Lions team.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean: DET 7 JAX 4

Final update: No change.

Detroit Lions 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against spread: Detroit -5 (-110) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 26 (+6)

Nate Burleson getting hurt might have been the best thing that could happen to this offense. It forced the Lions to replace the mediocre Burleson, who was averaging 8.9 yards per catch and (5.6 yards per target), with explosive 2011 2nd round pick Titus Young and it’s also given 2nd round rookie Ryan Broyles more playing time too. It’s no coincidence that their offense looked by far the best it has all season, and against a tough Seattle defense nonetheless, in their first game without Burleson, even with Calvin Johnson playing at less than 100%.

They already rank 8th in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives differential. If they can get Matt Stafford going, they’re not going to be fun to play. I don’t like their playoff chances at 3-4, but the NFC isn’t looking as loaded as it once did after going 1-3 against the AFC last week after starting 19-9 (the only win was Packers over Jaguars in a game that was closer than it should have been). They’re not out of it quite yet.

Studs

C Dominic Raiola: Allowed 1 pressure on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 5 attempts

LG Rob Sims: Did not allow a pressure on 53 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

WR Titus Young: Caught 9 passes for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

Duds

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 3 catches for 46 yards on 7 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

ROLB Justin Durant: Allowed 8 catches for 121 yards on 11 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Jacksonville Jaguars trade WR Mike Thomas to Detroit Lions

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Jaguars, Lions, Offseason Moves 2012

Trade for Jaguars: Mike Thomas caught 63 passes for 820 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 23 year old receiver in 2010, but it’s all gone downhill since there and he has just 13 catches for 80 yards this year, buried behind Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, and Laurent Robinson on the depth chart. Given that he’s owed 8.61 million over the next 3 seasons, I’m surprised there were able to get anything for him, though only 1 million of his 2013 salary is guaranteed. I don’t know how they got the mid round pick they reportedly received.

Trade: A

Trade for Lions: I don’t get this. I get that they’re taking a chance on Thomas bouncing back with a real quarterback, but I don’t understand giving up a mid round pick and taking on his salary. Besides, it’s not like they really need another wide receiver with Calvin Johnson, Titus Young, and Ryan Broyles.

Grade: D

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Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Lions, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (4-3) at Detroit Lions (2-4)

I feel like I say this about the Seahawks every week when I pick their game, but I love picking their games because they have such a big home/road disparity. On the road, they are 16-29 ATS since 2007, as opposed to 30-14 ATS at home. As dogs, their record is even worse on the road as they are 12-23 ATS. On the East Coast at 1 PM, as is typically the case with west coast teams, they really struggle, going 4-14 ATS.

That being said, the Seahawks have some things going for them. The first and most obvious is that they are rested. Teams are 114-92 ATS on a Sunday the week after Thursday Night since 1989. They’re also road dogs off of a road loss. This is a strong trend in general as teams are 93-58 ATS in this spot since 2007. Teams tend to be better adjusted to playing on the road directly off another road game.

Even the Seahawks have some success in this spot, at least as compared to what they normally do on the road, going 3-2 ATS on the road as dogs off a loss since 2007. In their 2nd straight road game in general, they are 5-4 ATS. The Seahawks covered in this spot a couple weeks ago in Carolina. The Seahawks are also dogs before being favorites as they host Minnesota next week. Teams are 84-46 ATS in this spot since 2011.

I still like Detroit this week, but it’s for a smaller play. There are several reasons for that, aside from Seattle’s road struggles. For one, both metrics, yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential suggests that Detroit is actually the better team. They’re 4th in the league in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives, while Seattle ranks 16th in yards per play and 20th in rate of sustaining drives. In the yards per play differential method of determining real line, Detroit is -6.5 and in the rate of sustaining drives differential method, Detroit is -4.5.

Neither of those metrics includes special teams, where Detroit has been horrible this year, and that’s one of the flaws with those two metrics. However, I don’t think Detroit’s special teams will be this bad all year because they’re on by far a record pace for futility. Detroit is better than their record. They’ve lost 4 games by 8, 3, 7, and 6. They’re also struggling with turnovers, with a turnover differential of -5, but that tends to even out over time (for more click here). I think we’re getting line value with the Lions, especially given Seattle’s road struggles. The 2nd reason I like Detroit is because this is a do or die game for a team that made the playoffs last year. This is their last stand, so they could easily play their best football game of the year. I don’t have a trend for this, but I like betting on former playoff teams in must win games.

The final reason I like Detroit is because favorites are evenly going to even things out. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year, but the odds makers probably want to close that gap before the season is done so bettors don’t catch on and start picking all dogs. Neither dogs nor favorites have finished 10 games over .500 ATS in a single season in the last decade at least. Seattle actually has a slight public lean this week, so they’re a public dog. Even if it’s only barely, it still makes Detroit a good play because Detroit can cover without losing the odds makers money, which is obviously what they want. It’s always a good thing to want the same things as them. I like Detroit as long as the spread is 3 or lower.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

Sharps lean: DET 15 SEA 13

Final update: No change

Detroit Lions 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Detroit Lions: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 26 (-4)

Record: 2-4

The Bengals are the favorite to be this year’s team to goes from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, but the Lions are right there in the loaded NFC at 2-4. The issue is that both yards per play and rate of sustaining drives say they’re a better team than their record. Yards per play has them at 4th, while rate of sustaining drives has them at 16th. However, special teams has been a major issue and that’s something that neither of those statistics takes into account and the real troubling thing is the play of their offense.

Their defense, 16th against the run and 11th against the pass, hasn’t been bad, but Stafford and the offense have been a mess and that’s why they are where they are. If their defense can’t continue to play at this improved level and Stafford and company can’t bounce back, that’s a real issue and I think that’s more likely than the opposite (Stafford and company bounce back and the defense continues to be solid.

Studs

LG Rob Sims: Did not allow a pressure on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 2 attempts

CB Chris Houston: Allowed 3 catches for 25 yards on 9 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

LOLB DeAndre Levy: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, allowed 2 catches for 0 yards on 3 attempts

SS Louis Delmas: Was not thrown on, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

Duds

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 3 attempts

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 3 passes for 34 yards on 12 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Brandon Pettigrew: Caught 5 passes for 37 yards on 6 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 2.2 YAC per catch

RB Stefan Logan: 6 punt returns for 7 yards, 2 kickoff returns for 44 yards, 2 fumbles

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions

Detroit Lions (2-3) at Chicago Bears (4-1)

This week, I put the Bears 1st in my Power Rankings. With the exception of the Thursday Night loss to Green Bay, the Bears have looked great this season, winning every game by 16 or more and only surrendering 7 sacks in 4 games. While you can’t completely ignore what happened on Thursday Night Football, it’s unreasonable to put too much stock into one game when a team has had 3 days to prepare on the road.

In their other 4 games, with the exception of Jacksonville, who they destroyed in Jacksonville in a potential trap game, they’ve played good opponents. Dallas should be a playoff contender right until the very end. They beat them by 16 in Dallas. Blowout wins over Indianapolis and St. Louis didn’t look impressive at the time, but now they do. Jay Cutler is now 9-1 in his last 10 games, including 22-10 dating back to 2010, including the 2 postseason games that year. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. At the very least, I think the Bears will do that. At most, they might just be the best team in the league, though there’s still a lot left uncertain.

The yards per play method of computing line value suggests this line should be -4.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests it should be -8.5. Given that, it might not seem like there’s any line value either way, but those numbers are much higher if you take out Chicago’s horrific Thursday Night performance. Besides, Detroit has the worst special teams in the league this year, something neither of those metrics captures. I like the matchup of Devin Hester against their special teams.

With the exception of that Thursday Night game, Chicago has covered by 10 or more in each of their 4 games, all of which have been blowouts. That’s a very impressive feat and I’m sticking with the team I proclaimed to be the best in the league here on Monday Night Football, where Jay Cutler is actually 7-3 ATS in his career. Detroit still has a bunch of issues so Chicago should pick up another double digit victory rested off a bye. Chicago is also my survivor pick on a bad week for survivor.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

Sharps lean: DET 15 CHI 4

Final update: No change, sticking with the Bears. I am, however, going to do a teaser of over 40.5 (normally 46.5) on the Buffalo/Tennessee game and Chicago -0.5 here for 1 unit. Assuming the over 40.5 hits, I can then hedge by taking the Detroit money line at +230 for a unit. That way, if Chicago wins, my teaser hits and I get +100 and lose 100 on the money line, so I don’t lose anything. If Chicago loses, I get the money line of +230 and lose 1 unit on the teaser, so -110, which equals out to be +120.

Assuming the over 40.5 hits in the Buffalo/Tennessee game, I can’t lose and it also allows me to somewhat hedge by Chicago +6.5 play. I like the over in the Buffalo/Tennessee game because neither of those teams can play defense as they rank 31st and 32nd in the league in points per game allowed and because games involving a team that just played a Thursday Night game go over 136 times and 97 times. In a 6 point teaser, that record improves to 184-52 for the over.

Sunday Night Update: I decided I’m not going to hedge. Confident in Bears to win because of how favorites have been doing this week (11-1 straight up, 7-4-1 ATS). It was bound to even out eventually.

Chicago Bears 31 Detroit Lions 17 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL)

Pick against spread: Chicago Bears -6.5 (-110) 2 units

Teaser: Over 40.5 Tennessee/Buffalo, Chicago -0.5

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Detroit Lions: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 23 (+1)

Record: 2-3

The Lions finally won last week, but the NFC is loaded. The NFC is 19-9 against the AFC this year. You’re going to have to assume, as an NFC team, that you’ll have to at least win 10 games to get into the playoffs and maybe 11 to be safe (10 opens up the possibility of a tiebreaker keeping you out). In order to go 10-6, they’d have to finish 8-3 and they’d have to finish 9-2 to go 11-5, thanks to their strong start and while the important stats say they are better than their record, none say they’re the type of team that can rip off 8 or 9 wins in an 11 game stretch like that. I still feel good about my preseason prediction that this team will miss the playoffs with 7 wins.

Studs

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts

SS Louis Delmas: Allowed 3 catches for 20 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 9 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, 4 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 8 blitzes

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 8 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 7 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 attempts

LE Cliff Avril: 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

LT Jeff Backus: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

RT Gosder Cherilus: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 18 yards on 7 attempts

WR Titus Young: Caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 4 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Chris Houston: Allowed 7 catches for 159 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Dwight Bentley: Allowed 5 catches for 43 yards on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

LE Willie Young: 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles

DT Sammie Lee Hill: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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