Lions

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions

Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

The Detroit Lions sit at 1-3 and have yet to cover a spread. As someone who called them overrated to start the season and subsequently went against them in each of their first 4 games, I’m pretty happy about that. However, right now I think they might be a little bit underrated. They’ve had a lot of injury issues in the first few games and now with Louis Delmas expected to return, they should have their whole defense back, though you can argue that doesn’t matter a ton because they allowed the 10th most points per game in 2011. In 2012, however, they are allowing the 7th most.

In spite of that and their 1-3 record, they do rank 13th in the league in yards per play differential, including 16th in yards per play allowed. How are they 16th in yards per play allowed, but 26th in points per game allowed? Well, there are some factors. One is that one of their games went to overtime, though if you take out points allowed in overtime, they’re still allowing 27.7 points per game (a .75 point per game improvement), which would rank 25th.

Another major issue they’re having is special teams. They allowed 4 kickoff or punt return touchdowns, which is responsible for 7 points per game. Take those out of the picture and they’re actually allowing 20.7 points per game in regulation which would rank 12th in the NFL. Of course, that’s assuming that their opponents would not have scored at all on any of their drives after the kickoff or punt, which is incorrect.

We also need to look at their per drive defensive statistics. Including extra points, the Lions are allowing about 2.1 points per drive this season, so really, those 4 return touchdowns allowed have cost them a total of 19.6 total points or 4.9 points per game. Still, if you take those out of the picture, they are allowing 22.8 points per game in regulation, which would be 18th. However, they’ve also allowed 2 touchdowns on a pick six and a fumble recovery touchdown, which, using the same method as above, allows an extra 2.4 points per game, which leaves their defense responsible for 20.4 points per game, which would be tied for 11th. This is all very “crude” math. Other things are at play like field position, but you get the idea. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as the points per game would suggest.

Now the question is, will they continue to allow so many non-defensive touchdowns? Well the two touchdowns off of turnovers have gone on just 6 giveaways. That’s one per every 3 turnovers. Average is one per every 12 turnovers and the numbers suggest it’s more luck than skill if your opponent returns a takeaway for 6, depending on things like where on the field the turnover takes place and how many players (on each side) are in the area.

But how about their special teams issues? Well, it’s really tough to say that’s not skill, but it’s probably not as hard of a fix as say fixing a bad pass rush or something. Plus, let’s say they continue to be horrific on special teams and break the NFL record for both kickoff return touchdowns allowed and punt return touchdowns allowed. Did you know how many that would be? 5. Yes, if they allowed 3 kickoff returns for touchdown and 3 punt returns for touchdown the rest of the way, they will hold both records.

Even if they did that, that would still be just .5 special teams touchdowns allowed per game, an improvement of .5 special teams touchdowns allowed per game over their first 4 games, meaning they can be the worst special teams team ever and still see a 100% improvement in that area going forward. If they simply tie both records of futility, that would be .33 special teams touchdowns allowed per game going forward, a 200% improvement.

So all things the same, they should see a noticeable improvement in points per game allowed going forward. However, all things aren’t really the same. They’ve faced a pretty easy slate of opposing offenses so far, St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Minnesota. In fact, Philadelphia this week might be the toughest offense they’ve faced so far. I think we should expect them to allow somewhere around the 24.2 points per game they allowed last year. They’re still not a good defensive team.

Meanwhile, while they haven’t faced tough offenses, they have faced some tough defenses. With the exception of Tennessee, who really isn’t doing anything right, everyone they’ve faced this year is playing tough defense. Their offense is just 13th in the league in yards per play. Unfortunately for them this week, Philadelphia ranks 7th in opponent’s yards per play (San Francisco is 3rd, Minnesota is 2nd, and St. Louis is 11th), so they have another tough test, but going forward, we should see an offensive improvement.

And that takes me to another underrated team, the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re another team whose yards per play differential is much better than their record and points differential as they rank 8th in this category. The reason for that takes a much shorter explanation than Detroit’s. The issue is, unsurprisingly to anyone following the league this year, their turnover differential. They rank tied for last in the NFC with a turnover differential of -7.

However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to use yards per play differential. It’s not perfect, but it doesn’t take into account something that’s incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis.

So both teams are underrated, but which one do I like? Well, a week ago, I probably would have said Detroit as this line was -6 and Philadelphia’s game all seem to be close, with the exception of that game in Arizona. However, since then, this line has moved to -3.5, a complete overreaction considering the Eagles didn’t look all that bad last week (they covered the spread) and the Lions didn’t play. For the record, the real line here is Philadelphia -5.5, so we’re getting line value with the Eagles now.

The line has also done a good deal of moving this week, as Detroit is a publicly backed underdog, which is driving the line down. I like betting against publicly backed underdogs and getting line value, so it’s a very small play on the hosts. I don’t have a good feel for this one though and it would be a zero unit play if I did those.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean (15-9 or better in LV Hilton): DET 24 PHI 8

Final update: Sharps like Detroit, but I’m still unsure.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 23 (+0)

Record: 1-3

I had the Lions as one of my disappointing teams to start the season and I’m feeling pretty good about that. Their special teams are a mess, having already allowed 4 special teams touchdowns this year, but special teams aside, they still rank 14th in yards per play differential. If they can get their special teams issues cleaned up, they can be better, but in a tough NFC, at 1-3, they are going to have a tough time making the playoffs. Matt Stafford isn’t quite as good as he was last year and the defense is just as bad and in their last 16 games, a full season, they’re 6-10. That sounds like about where they’ll end up at the end of this season and they’re a candidate, along with New Orleans, to be this year’s team that goes from in the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins.

Studs

CB Chris Houston: Allowed 2 catches for 4 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

LE Cliff Avril: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

RB Mikel Leshoure: Rushed for 26 yards (20 after contact) on 13 carries, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, caught 4 passes for 37 yards on 4 attempts

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 61 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

WR Titus Young: Caught 1 pass for 17 yards on 2 attempts on 54 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Brandon Pettigrew: Caught 7 passes for 67 yards on 9 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 5 passes for 54 yards on 11 attempts on 54 pass snaps, 1.6 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Dwight Bentley: Allowed 3 catches for 44 yards on 3 attempts, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 6 solo tackles, 3 missed tackles, 3 stops, allowed 3 catches for 16 yards on 3 attempts

DT Nick Fairley: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty

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New Orleans Saints: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 26 (+0)

Record: 0-4

The bad news is the Saints are 0-4. The good news is that they looked a lot better last week, going into Lambeau Field and playing a solid game in a close loss to the Packers. There’s understandably adjustment period to live without your Head Coach, especially a Super Bowl winning one like Sean Payton, but it should get easier on a weekly basis. Plus, having Drew Brees doesn’t hurt. That’s why this team is ahead of several teams that have won games. Still, they are the favorite to be this year’s team to goes from in the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins.

Studs

C Brian La Puente: Did not allow a pressure on 58 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 4 attempts

QB Drew Brees: 35 of 54 for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 4 drops, 99.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 56 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 of 4, 1 throw away)

WR Marques Colston: Caught 9 passes for 153 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

Duds

RB Pierre Thomas: Rushed for 14 yards (12 after contact) on 9 attempts, 2 catches for -1 yards on 2 attempts

WR Devery Henderson: Caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 2 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LE Cameron Jordan: 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

DT Sedrick Ellis: Did not record a pressure on 25 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LOLB Scott Shanle: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 49 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Lions, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

I’ve been saying it all along that the Lions are overrated. It’s one of the preseason predictions that I’m proud of. They sit at 1-2, coming off a loss to the Titans with only a comeback win by 3 at home against the Rams. Last year, they went 10-6 despite the league’s 23rd ranked defense because their passing offense was so good. Matt Stafford threw for over 5000 yards and 41 touchdowns and led an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 or more. They also didn’t finish well, going 5-7 in their last 12, including playoffs, after a 5-0 start

They didn’t fix their defensive problems and they simply couldn’t count on their offense to bail them out at a record rate anymore, especially since Matt Stafford was still a one year wonder coming in this year and one with a history of injures. They also didn’t have a reliable running game to lean on. Stafford hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been the quarterback he was last year. Dating back to last year, this team is 6-9 in their last 15. Now Stafford is hurt. He returned to practice today and will play, but an injury, even a hip injury, is hardly a good thing for someone having a little bit of a regression already, especially for a team so reliant on the passing attack.

Defensively, they’ve gotten healthier in the secondary over the last couple of weeks as they now have #1 cornerback Chris Houston back from injury. He played well last week, but the Lions surrendered 378 yards and 2 touchdowns to Jake Locker on a 9.0 YPA clip. They rank 24th in the league in opponent’s YPA. Remember, even though they are healthier now, they weren’t a very good pass defense to start with and they lost starting cornerback Eric Wright this offseason. Louis Delmas is also still hurt, leaving Houston as the only capable starter in a secondary with 3rd round rookie Dwight Bentley, Jacob Lacey, a failed starter in Indianapolis last year, and two veteran journeymen John Wendling and Erik Coleman.

There’s also the issue of their pass rush. They actually rank just 26th in the league in pass rush efficiency, down from 8th in 2011. That was really the only reason their defense was even mediocre last year. It’s unclear if this is something that will continue into the future or if it’s just a fluke, but it’s definitely concerning. Cliff Avril, possibly dealing with the effects of a holdout this offseason, has just 6 pressures, with one sack, on 77 pass rush snaps, while soon to be 34 year old Kyle Vanden Bosch has just 3 with 1 sack on 82 pass rush snaps. He’s looking pretty done. Given how bad their secondary is, they won’t have any chance of stopping anyone if they keep letting quarterbacks sit in the pocket like that. All 3 quarterbacks they’ve played have moved the ball with ease against them, and it’s not a Pro Bowl group of guys either. They’ve faced Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, and Jake Locker.

Christian Ponder should be able to move the ball on these guys with ease as well. The Vikings’ win over the 49ers was no fluke. They rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential and they have a winning record despite no advantage in turnovers +0. The Vikings went 3-13 last year, but had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins and averaged 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league, in the 9 games Christian Ponder led the team in passing attempts. Ponder has taken a major step forward in his 2nd year in the league, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions, including 21 of 35 for 198 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers, probably the league’s best defense.

Percy Harvin has emerged not just a legitimate #1 receiver, but one of the best receivers in the league, ranking 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage by a receiver, now that the coaching staff is utilizing him properly. Kyle Rudolph has emerged as a secondary option. The offensive line ranks 6th in the league in pass block efficiency thanks to some offseason changes and the defense is better as well now that they’re healthier. Every year a team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. The Vikings are the favorites right now and by a good margin after other candidates St. Louis, Washington, and Tampa Bay all lost last week. Of the 7 candidates, only Minnesota is even in the top-24 in yards per play differential.

Ponder will also be helped by Adrian Peterson, who has made a miraculously recovery. Detroit actually ranks 13th in the league against the run, but considering they’ve faced Chris Johnson and a probably washed up Steven Jackson in 2 of their 3 games, I think that’s a bit of a fluke. Last year they ranked 30th against the run. Peterson should be able to be a reliable compliment for Christian Ponder and this improved passing game, which should be able to tear up the Lions’ awful pass defense.

Minnesota’s defense is much improved this season, thanks to the emergence of guys like Erin Henderson, who will return from injury this week, and Brian Robison, as well as the return for Antoine Winfield for injury and other factors. Detroit is by far the best passing offense they’ve faced (Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Francisco) and they will move the chains with some ease, so this will be a shoot out, but I like Minnesota this week.

One trend works in Minnesota’s favor. They’re dogs after winning as dogs before being favorites (home for Tennessee next week). Teams are 35-18 ATS in this situation since 2008. Teams tend to feel disrespected coming off big upset wins if they are still not favored and tend to cover so long as their next game isn’t a hard one that they could possibly be caught losing ahead to. Both Arizona and Seattle covered in this situation last week. Minnesota will be extra motivated to win a statement game here as well because it’s a divisional opponent.

On top of that, I just feel like we’re getting more than 3 points with the better team on the road. Minnesota’s yards per play differential is .5 yards better than Detroit’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” That suggests that Minnesota should actually be favored by half a point.

It’s more accurate to use that a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting and formula aside, I do think Minnesota is the better team right now and in a better situation, as an underrated team playing to be taken seriously even after a big upset. I’m putting 3 units on this for now and I might add an extra one if I see that the public starts pounding Detroit because I love to fade the public. However, this line was just posted, so I don’t know which way the public is leaning yet. There may be an update to this.

Public lean: ?

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): MIN 9 DET 4

Minnesota Vikings 31 Detroit Lions 27 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Minnesota +4.5 (-110) 3 units

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Detroit Lions: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 21 (-2)

Record: 1-2

Every year a team goes from in the playoffs to winning 5 games or fewer. The Lions, one of my preseason overrated teams, are a finalist for that spot, but I have them finishing a little bit better than that. However, their defense is atrocious just like last year and Matt Stafford, even if he doesn’t get hurt again, is not going to throw for 5000 yards and 41 touchdowns again to compensate. Stafford hasn’t been bad, but he’s not having the elite season he was last year. They are now, including playoff, 6-9 in their last 15, which is almost a whole season, and last year they needed a record four comebacks from down 13 or more to even win 10 games. This year, the offense isn’t good enough to compensate for the defense getting them in a whole early.

Studs

QB Matt Stafford: 33 of 42 for 278 yards and a touchdown, 4 drops, 108.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 45 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 2 of 3)

RB Mikel Leshoure: Rushed for 100 yards (35 after contact) and a touchdown on 26 carries, 4 catches for 34 yards on 4 attempts

LT Jeff Backus: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

LG Rob Sims: Did not allow a pressure on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 3 attempts

C Dominic Raiola: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 50 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts

WR Calvin Johnson: 10 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts on 60 pass plays, 3.6 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Chris Houston: Allowed 5 catches for 34 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

TE Brandon Pettigrew: 8 catches for 61 yards on 12 attempts on 53 pass plays, 3.3 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 penalty

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Cliff Avril: Did not record a pressure on 35 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 penalties

DT Corey Williams: Did not record a pressure on 31 pass rush snaps, no tackles

CB Dwight Bentley: Allowed 8 catches for 71 yards on 9 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Jacob Lacey: Allowed 4 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackles, 2 penalties, 1 quarterback hit on 7 pass rush snaps, allowed 2 catches for 15 yards on 3 attempts

SS Erik Coleman: Allowed 3 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

RE Willie Young: Did not record a pressure on 12 pass rush snaps, no tackles, 1 penalty

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It’s unclear how Lions will divide backfield carries with Mikel Leshoure returning

stevenlourie Lions, News

After serving a 2 game suspension and missing his entire rookie year with an Achilles tear, 2011 2nd round pick Mikel Leshoure is ready to finally make his regular season debut for the Lions. It’s known that he’ll get carries, but it’s unclear how many he’ll get and if he’ll start over Kevin Smith, who has rushed for 115 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries in 2 starts in Leshoure’s absence.

The Lions have only said that he will “certainly be involved heavily in the game plan and we’ll go from there,” which is about as vague as it gets, though some people in the know, such as ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen believe he’ll be heavily involved. It’s looking like a less than ideal situation in fantasy leagues so I wouldn’t start either until I had a better understanding of how the carries will be divided up, which should take at least a week. For what’s it’s worth, in the offseason, the plan was reportedly to use Leshoure like the Saints use Mark Ingram and Smith like the Saints use Pierre Thomas (with the currently injured Jahvid Best as Darren Sproles). That would make Leshoure the lead back and the goal line back.

It’s also unclear if Leshoure is healthy enough to add anything positive to their running game. Achilles injuries normally take more than a year to bounce back from and Leshoure didn’t look good in the preseason rushing for 44 yards on 20 carries. A player in a similar situation, 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams, has rushed for just 22 yards on 18 carries in 2 games and he looked better than Leshoure did in the preseason.

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Lions expect Bill Bentley and Chris Houston back, not Louis Delmas

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions’ defense has been pretty awful through 2 games, particularly through the air, ranking 22nd in YPA, allowing 37 of 56 for 374 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That might not sound awful, but neither of the quarterbacks they’ve faced, Alex Smith or Sam Bradford, are really that great. That’s also in spite of one of the best pass rushes in the league.

The Lions are expected to be healthier in the secondary this week, returning Chris Houston and Bill Bentley from injury. However, they’re still not at 100% and it’s not like they were a good pass defense before injuries. They were 23rd in scoring defense last year. Houston is decent, but Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. Those 2 will work with Jacob Lacey, a mediocre talent, at cornerback, while their safeties will be Erik Coleman and either Amari Spievey or John Wendling. Wendling started last week, but got destroyed by Vernon Davis and was benched for Spievey who was terrible last year. It’s unclear who will start this week, but it probably doesn’t matter. Louis Delmas, who is still injured, is really missed there.

A poor passing defense still not at full strength, they be a welcome sight for Jake Locker this week. Locker has struggled in 2 games against San Diego and New England, but this is a much easier test. On top of that, the Lions struggle to stop the run and Chris Johnson, as many duds as he’s had in the last year plus, has rushed for 100+ yards 4 times in 5 games against teams ranked in the bottom 3rd against the run, which the Lions did last year.

Locker, now more comfortable in his 3rd start, will also get top receiver Kenny Britt back in a full time role. Remember, Britt, not yet 24 years old, has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his full last 13 games. The Lions have the talent edge, but they could be flat off an emotional loss to the 49ers against a “lowly” 0-2 team, and they’re on the road. The Lions, just 6-8 in their last 14 games, should be on upset alert.

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Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Lions, Titans

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. The one thing that’s remained constant is that the Lions are overrated. They needed a late comeback at home to beat the Rams week 1 and then they weren’t really competitive in San Francisco last week before a late garbage time touchdown.

The reason I thought Detroit was overrated was because of how one dimensional they are. They had a great passing offense, but they didn’t have much talent at the running back position and they couldn’t stop anyone defensively. Last year, they won just 5 of their final 12 games, including playoffs, and needed 4 comebacks of 13 points or more, an NFL record, to even win 10 games. Their defense ranked 23rd in scoring and I didn’t think they could keep relying on the offense to bail the defense out at a historic rate.

Besides, their strength, their passing offense, was very reliant on Matt Stafford, who coming into this season was just a one year wonder. For the record, he’s completing 63.8% of his passes for 7.3 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 2 games. Except for the completion percentage, which has remained steady, those are all down from last year. He’s not bad or anything, but he doesn’t nearly have the help he needs for this to be an elite team, specifically defensively.

Defensively, they’ve been awful through 2 games, particularly through the air, ranking 22nd in YPA, allowing 37 of 56 for 374 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That might not sound awful, but neither of the quarterbacks they’ve faced, Alex Smith or Sam Bradford, are really that great. Jake Locker isn’t that great either, completing 61.3% of his passes for 6.5 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but this is by far his easiest match up.

The Lions are expected to be healthier in the secondary this week, returning Chris Houston and Bill Bentley from injury. However, they’re still not at 100% and it’s not like they were a good pass defense before injuries. Houston is decent, but Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. Those 2 will work with Jacob Lacey, a mediocre talent, at cornerback, while their safeties will be Erik Coleman and either Amari Spievey or John Wendling. None of those guys are any good. Locker should be able to move the ball on this group and in his 3rd start in the NFL, he could be more comfortable, especially now that Kenny Britt is expected to play a larger role. Remember, Britt, not yet 24 years old, has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his full last 13 games.

One other thing that will help Locker out is that Chris Johnson should finally break through this week. CJ21 has been hilariously awful through the first 2 games of the season, rushing for 21 yards on 19 carries. However, the competition he’s faced has been stiff. I’m not saying he’s blameless; in fact he’s far from it, but last year he struggled against stiff competition and tore up bad run defenses. In 4 games against teams ranked 21st or worse in YPC, Johnson rushed for over 100 yards 4 times, over 130 yards 3 times and over 153 yards 2 times. The Lions ranked 30th against the run last year. They’ve been a little bit better this year, ranking 16th, but it’s only been 2 games and they didn’t make a single change in their defensive front 7 from last year to this year, so that decent ranking is probably a fluke. Chris Johnson should finally have a good game this week. That will take the pressure off of Locker.

So the Lions can’t stop the run and they can’t stop the pass. What can they do? Well, they can get to the quarterback, or at least they used to be able to. They rank 17th in pass rush efficiency this year, a stat they ranked 8th in last year. Like their improved run defense, this is probably also a fluke. I can’t think of any good reason why their pass rush would decline, other than possibly Kyle Vanden Bosch’s age (1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass rush snaps in his age 34 season). They should considering giving talented young backup Willie Young more snaps.

However, don’t expect the Lions to be able to get to Locker with ease this week. Tennessee’s offensive front can’t run block, but they are great in pass protection. They were the 2nd ranked offensive line in pass block efficiency last year. Locker will be under some pressure, like he has been in their first 2 games against tough competition (he’s been the 10th most pressured quarterback in the league), because the Lions have a tough pass rush too, but he should have enough time to have a solid game against a secondary that couldn’t stop Sam Bradford or Alex Smith.

So the Titans should be able to move the ball, but what about the Lions? They should be able to as well. Matt Stafford leads an above average passing game and they get Mikel Leshoure back from suspension this week, though it’s unclear how much he’ll play or how much he’ll help the running game. Besides, the Titans have surrendered 34 and 38 points in their first 2 games.

However, Matt Stafford is not on the level of Philip Rivers and Tom Brady, the Titans’ opponents in their first 2 games. Rivers in particular played an amazing game against them. Down his top receiver Antonio Gates, he completed 24 of 32 for 284 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception despite being pressured on 20 of 37 drop backs. On top 20 pressured drop backs, he took just 3 sacks, scrambled twice and completed 10 of 16.

The Titans can get after the quarterback this year thanks to maturation of some of their young defensive linemen and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. They rank 2nd in the league in pass rush efficiency, which helps make up for the loss of Cortland Finnegan in the secondary. Remember, they were the league’s 8th rated scoring defense last year and this year, in spite of all the points they’ve given up, they’re pretty middle of the pack in yards per play allowed. That’s 23rd in the league this year, but it’s actually right in the middle of the best (4.1) and the worst (7.2). They rank 27th in yards per play differential because of their offense (4.9 yards per play, which is 29th) more so than their defense, so the Lions won’t have a field day or anything on the Titans defense. And the Titans’ offense, as I mentioned, seems due for a better game this week, for several reasons.

I don’t think the Titans are better than the Lions or anything, but this line implies that the Lions are 7 points better on a neutral field. That doesn’t make any sense to me and it wouldn’t have made any sense to the odds makers last week, who had the advance spread on this game at Tennessee -1 last week. Something like an even or Detroit -1 would have made more sense in this game, so we’re getting a ton of line value with the Titans. In spite of that, the public is predictably pounding the Lions this week. I love betting against the public at every chance I get, especially when the public is leaning one way heavily. The odds makers are rich for a reason and the public is getting slaughtered this year on big leans.

On top of the line value, I also think the Lions could be pretty flat this week. They’re coming off an emotional loss to a very talented team and might not get up for a non-conference 0-2 team, especially with a divisional test looming on the horizon next week. Road favorites in non-conference battles are 9-16 ATS since 1989 coming off a loss as a dog before playing a divisional opponent. I know it’s a really specific trend, which is why I had to go all the way back to 1989 to get statistically significant data, but it makes sense that the Lions would be flat this week, especially as a young team prone to penalties (they were the 3rd most penalized teams in the league last.

Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off back to back losses of 20+, which historically means they’re undervalued. Teams are 32-16 ATS in this situation since 2002. The Titans are especially undervalued here because people are looking past exactly how tough their opening two games were, especially with a 1st time starting quarterback. As long as Detroit doesn’t have field goal protection, I’m taking the Titans in this one.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110) 3 units

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Detroit Lions: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 22 (+1)

Record: 1-1

I had the Lions much lower than most people to start the season because I thought they were one dimensional, had a bad defense, and a bad running game, and overall thought they were overall too reliant on their passing attack for wins (4 comebacks from 13+ points last year, an NFL record), which, by the way, was led by a quarterback who had a history of injury problems and who had only had one good year in the NFL. So far in 2012, Matt Stafford is 51 of 80 for (63.8%) for 585 yards (7.3 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, and that doesn’t tell the whole story because a big chunk of those yards were garbage time yards. As a result, the Lions almost lost at home to the Rams and weren’t competitive in San Francisco (down by double figures throughout the 2nd half until a garbage time touchdown with 1:29 left in the game). At least Stafford hasn’t gotten hurt yet.

Studs

WR Calvin Johnson: 8 catches for 94 yards on 12 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

MLB Stephen Tulloch: Allowed 4 catches for 32 yards on 8 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

QB Matt Stafford: 19 of 32 for 230 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 1 throw away, 1 drop, pressured on 5 of 34 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 3)

WR Nate Burleson: 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 15.0 YAC per catch

ROLB Justin Durant: Allowed 4 catches for 59 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

DT Corey Williams: 1 sack on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

DE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 1 sack on 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

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