Lions

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Lions

Detroit Lions (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

Both of these teams were in my overrated group heading into the season. The idea with the overrated/underrated teams was to bet the underrated teams and against the overrated teams until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. Detroit didn’t prove me wrong as they barely eked out a come from behind win at home against the Rams, helping me nail my pick of the week, but the 49ers proved me wrong last week, pulling the upset victory in Green Bay. In fact, of all of my preseason predictions, that may be the one I end up being most wrong on. This doesn’t bother me too much, as I was 5-2 last week on games involved underrated or overrated teams, but it does force me to make adjustments.

I don’t think it’s really fair to say that the 49ers are on overrated team anymore, but it is fair to say that about the Lions. In order to improve on their win total, the Lions would have to improve their win total for the 4th straight season. In the up and down NFL, that rarely happens. Their running back depth chart is basically the same as their inactive list. They finished last season 5-7, including playoffs. They had a distraction filled offseason and they needed an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 points or more to even win 10 games last year, because of how bad their defense is. It’s not any better this season and if the offense doesn’t bail them out at a record rate again, they could regress.

There’s no way they deserve to be just 7 point underdogs in San Francisco. That suggests that San Francisco is just 4 points better than the Lions, which I don’t think is true. The one thing that I acknowledged could completely derail my 49ers prediction would be Alex Smith improbably breaking out as a true franchise quarterback at age 28, with the addition of new weapons and a full offseason in Jim Harbaugh’s scheme. That’s because the premise behind calling the 49ers an overrated team was largely based on my observation that teams cannot consistently win in the NFL without a true franchise quarterback. You can have a good year, or even a great year, but it’s hard to be consistent on a year to year basis purely on running the football, playing good defense, and winning the turnover battle (See Baltimore pre-Flacco and Chicago pre-Cutler).

It’s still inconclusive whether or not Smith is a true franchise quarterback, but one thing is for sure, the Packers made him look like one, blowing coverages left and right, failing to stop the run, and only pressuring him on 7 of 33 drop backs. It’ll still be inconclusive whether or not Smith is a true franchise quarterback after this one because the Lions also have a terrible defense, ranking 23rd in scoring last year.

They were the league’s 28th ranked run defense in 2011, so despite a strong showing in run defense in the opener, I don’t expect them to be able to contain the 49ers’ two headed attack of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. This will make life very easy for Smith, who will also be facing a Lions’ pass defense that made Sam Bradford look pretty good in the opener (17 of 25 for 198 yards and a score).

They’ll probably be able to get more pressure on Smith than the Packers did, but their secondary is even worse, even with Chris Houston returning from injury. They’ll still be without Louis Delmas and now rookie Bill Bentley with injury, leaving Jacob Lacey, who struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year, to start opposite Houston. Meanwhile, Drayton Florence, who was recently a final cut of the Broncos, will man the slot. With Delmas out, veteran journeyman Erik Coleman will start next to incumbent 2011 starter Amari Spievey, who really struggled last year. The 49ers should be able to move the ball.

Because of that and their ball control offense, they should be able to keep Matt Stafford and company on the sidelines for the majority of the game, like they did to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Lions are like a poor man’s version of the Packers, assuming the Packers’ defense doesn’t improve. The 49ers beat the Packers in Lambeau last week, so they should be able to beat the Lions at home. The 49ers won’t stop Stafford and this passing game, like they didn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game, but they’ll limit them and dominate the other areas of the game, much like last week. Also like last week, they should be able to put a complete halt on a Lions running game that isn’t very good to begin with, much like the Packers’.

I’m going with the 49ers here as 7 point favorites in a matchup of two of my preseason overrated teams. The 49ers looked much, much better than the Lions did last week and they match up very well with the one dimensional Lions. The reason this isn’t a big bet is twofold. For one, the 49ers don’t have the type of offense built to blow people out, while the Lions have the type of offense that can mount a late backdoor cover drive against a sizeable spread. The 2nd reason is “handshake gate.” Jim Schwartz is kind of crazy and took Harbaugh’s rough handshake very personally after these two teams met last year. If he can somehow use that as motivation for his team, they’ll have the motivation edge in this one.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

San Francisco 49ers 27 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7 (-110) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 20 (-2)

Record: 1-0

I got several things wrong week 1, finishing 8-8 ATS and 9-7 SU on the week, and several of my bolder preseason predictions are looking kind of shaky (more on that later), but one thing I nailed was that St. Louis would be better than people thought and Detroit would be worse. The odds makers seemed to agree with me, setting the line for Detroit/St. Louis at -7.5 Detroit and a lot of people lost a lot of money betting on Detroit as Detroit needed a late comeback to beat the Rams by 4 at home, helping me nail my pick of the week. I’ll continue to bet against Detroit until they prove me wrong or the odds makers catch up.

They can pass the ball well and it’s a passing league, but their terrible secondary that made Sam Bradford look good (17 for 25 for 198 yards and a touchdown) will cancel a lot of that out. They also don’t have a lot of running back talent and I don’t trust their run defense, ranked 28th in the league last year, even though they did a good job on Steven Jackson this week. On top of all that, they’re a penalty prone team who had a distracting offseason, they have a tough schedule, and as a team, they’re incredibly dependant on a connection of Stafford to Johnson that hasn’t been the most durable in their careers.

Studs

LB Rob Sims: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 carries

C Dominic Raiola: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards and a touchdown on 4 carries

DT Corey Williams: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 19 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles and 2 stops on 16 snaps

K Jason Hanson: 6 kickoffs, 71.5 yards per kickoff, 4 touchbacks, average starting distance of 20.0, 2/2 on FGs (41, 45)

Duds

WR Titus Young: 1 catch for 14 yards on 3 attempts on 27 pass plays, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop and 1 missed tackle on 17 run plays

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Lions to be without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston against Rams

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, allowing 24.2 points per game, good for 23rd in the NFL. Their awful passing defense was a big part of that and things aren’t going to be much better this season, especially not week 1. Having lost starter Eric Wright to the Buccaneers in free agency alright this offseason and cutting his replacement Aaron Berry for off the field issues, the Lions will now be without Louis Delmas and Chris Houston against the Rams this week, their only two remaining competent starters.

This leaves Jacob Lacey, Bill Bentley, John Wendling, and Erik Coleman starting in the secondary for the Lions, with Drayton Florence operating as the nickel back. Lacey struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year. Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. John Wendling is a career journeyman backup and Coleman is a veteran who has been a backup in Atlanta over the last few seasons. Florence, meanwhile, was cut twice this offseason, first by the Bills and then by the Broncos, who made him a final cut. He’s only been with the Lions about a week.

The Lions have a ferocious pass rush, but even that won’t make this secondary look very good. Sam Bradford might not be the best quarterback, but this is about as easy of a matchup as he’ll get and with Steven Jackson by his side, the Rams should be able to run effectively on a Lions’ defense that ranked 30th on the ground last year. That will help the Rams move the football and take some off the pressure off an underrated offensive line in pass protection. The Lions, meanwhile, will have their explosive offense limited by the Rams equally good defensive line, against a decent Lions’ offensive line, and the Rams’ significantly superior secondary.  There’s a chance the Rams could pull out this victory.

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St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Lions, Rams

St. Louis Rams (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

For those if you who didn’t follow me in the offseason, I did a lot of work in an effort to find the 5 most underrated and 5 most overrated teams going into the season. The idea is simple. Every year, 5 teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year before make the playoffs, including one team with 5 or fewer wins the previous year and roughly 25% of teams who won 6 or fewer games the previous year. Likewise, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins. One team goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs and vice versa. In fact, on average, a team’s record changes by 3 wins in either direction each season. I termed this change “points of parity.” 1.8 teams change by 7+ points of parity, 4.4 teams have 6+ points of parity, 7 have 5+ points of parity, 11.3 have 4+ points of parity, 15.5 have 3+, etc. For more on this in a 7 part series, click here.

What you see below are some Vegas odds from weeks 1-3 last season.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco

Chicago (+7) at New Orleans

Houston (-3) at Miami

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

San Diego (+7) at New England

St. Louis (+4.5) at NY Giants

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta

San Francisco (+3) at Cincinnati

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago

Those look comical to us now, but they were once legitimate lines. If you had predicted beforehand that teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and Cincinnati would exceed expectations and teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia would do the opposite, that’s 15 wins (and one push) for you in 3 weeks easily. Unfortunately, I got screwed over, at least for the first week of the season. Two of my underrated teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) are playing each other this week, as are two of my overrated teams (Baltimore and Cincinnati).

This game I lucked out with as it has one of my underrated teams facing one of my overrated teams. If you’ve been following me this offseason, you know why I think the Rams are underrated and the Lions are overrated, but I’ll repeat myself here for anyone who hasn’t been following. For Detroit, in order to improve on their win total, the Lions would have to improve their win total for the 4th straight season. In the up and down NFL, that rarely happens. Their running back depth chart is basically the same as their inactive list. They finished last season 5-7, including playoffs. They had a distraction filled offseason and they needed an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 points or more to even win 10 games last year, because of how bad their defense is. It’s not any better this season and if the offense doesn’t bail them out at a record rate again, they could regress.

For St. Louis, they improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice versa. They should bounce back this year. Teams that regress 5 games win an average of 1.6 more the following season. The Rams were destroyed by injuries last year and should have better health in the secondary and on the offensive line, where they also added key free agents. A healthier offensive line should lead to a healthier and better Sam Bradford under center, while, on the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the league’s best defensive lines and should be able to win some games with strong defense, running the football, and decent quarterback play.

The fact that this line is so low, -7.5, solidifies my belief that the Rams are underrated and the Lions are overrated.  I believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 80% of the money is on Detroit, yet the line has dropped from -9 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -7.5. They really want us to bet Detroit. The odds makers seem to agree that St. Louis is underrated and Detroit is overrated and that these two teams are more evenly matched than you’d think and they’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

I’m not saying St. Louis is better than Detroit. I have St. Louis winning 9 games with an easier schedule and Detroit winning 7 with a harder schedule, but it could easily be the other way around if the schedules were switched. Still, there’s a lot of line value and I think at the end of the year, we’re going to look back at this line and wonder why it wasn’t Detroit -3 (which, because Detroit is at home, would suggest they’re evenly matched).

Detroit obviously has the better passing game, but that’s about it. As good as Detroit’s defensive line is, St. Louis’ defensive line is comparable with 2nd year player Robert Quinn, who excelled in a situational role last year, stepping into the starting lineup opposite Chris Long, one of the game’s best pass rushers. Inside, they have Kendall Langford, a solid starter and free agent acquisition, and 1st round rookie Michael Brockers, though the latter is out for this game with a high ankle sprain.

As bad as St. Louis’ offensive line was last year, they should be better this year. They get Rodger Saffold back from injury on the left side and add Scott Wells at center, leaving left guard and right tackle as the only two holes. It’s not great, but it’s not as bad as it seems and the new quick throw offense that the Rams are putting in, similar to the one Bradford played well in as a rookie, will make life easier for Bradford and the offensive line. Their offensive line is comparable to Detroit’s decent offensive line, which has an aging Jeff Backus at left tackle, a mediocre Gosder Cherilus at right tackle, and an interior offensive line that struggles to open up holes on the ground.

Whatever huge advantage Detroit has at quarterback and wide receiver is nullified by St. Louis obvious advantages on the ground and in the secondary. The Rams secondary was ravaged by injuries last year, but adds Cortland Finnegan, one of the league’s top cornerbacks, through free agency, as well as two promising rookies in Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, and returns former starter Bradley Fletcher back from injury. Detroit’s secondary was torched all throughout last year and will continue to be torched this season, especially now that starter Eric Wright is gone and replaced with either 3rd round rookie Bill Bentley, or veteran Drayton Florence, cut by the Broncos earlier this week. Also likely gone for this game are safety Louis Delmas and cornerback Chris Houston with injury, leaving them without a capable starter in the secondary.

On the ground, Detroit is without Jahvid Best (injury) and Mikel Leshoure (suspension), leaving Kevin Smith, a mediocre runner who has a career 3.9 YPC, to start against an improved Rams run defense, even without Michael Brockers. Steven Jackson, meanwhile, remains the workhorse for the Rams until he gets hurt and he should have a huge game against a Detroit run defense that ranked 30th, allowing 5.0 YPC last season. That, along with the defense holding the Lions’ offense in check, will make life easier for Sam Bradford as he tries to move the ball against a very poor secondary, which he should be able to do, even without much talent at wide receiver. The running game will also force the defensive line to respect the run and will help the offensive line pass block a talented Detroit pass rush.

The Rams are my pick of the week. For one, I picked Detroit as one of my overrated teams before the season and St. Louis as one of my underrated teams before the season. Two, I love doing the opposite of what the odds makers want, which is clearly to bet Detroit in this one. Three, I feel these teams are evenly matched and therefore there’s a lot of line value, even at -7.5 in Detroit. I’m taking St. Louis to win and cover, though I’m much more confident about the latter than the former.

St. Louis Rams 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick (+290)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +7.5 (-120) 5 units

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Lions trying to trade for running back

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions have an injury prone trio at running back. Jahvid Best will begin the season on the PUP and miss at least the first 6 weeks of the season. He’s also a candidate to go on IR after the first 6 weeks if he is not clear of concussion related symptoms. Meanwhile, Mikel Leshoure is suspended for the first 2 weeks of the season and missed most of Training Camp as he tries to work his way back from a torn Achilles that the 2011 2nd round pick suffered last offseason. He still has yet to have a carry in an NFL game that counts.

Kevin Smith, another injury prone back, is expected to get the week 1 start and probably remain the starter throughout the season. However, Smith could easily get hurt again. He left the Lions’ 3rd preseason game with an ankle problem last week and, while he seems to be fine, it’s definitely not what you want to see, especially for someone who missed time with an ankle problem last year. Behind that trio, the Lions only have Keiland Williams, a 2010 undrafted free agent who has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry on 123 career carries.

They need a better insurance policy than Williams behind that trio, so makes sense that the Lions have been looking at free agent running backs, including Cedric Benson, who recently signed with the Packers, and Ryan Grant, who is still a free agent. However, in addition to that, it appears the Lions have also been working the phones trying to trade for a veteran running back, according to a report from NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora.

This is unlikely to be a back like Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew. While MJD is holding out and says he’d welcome a trade, the Jaguars say they are not going to discuss trading him. If they do end up trading him, it will be during the season, if MJD skips a few regular season games, and only for an offer they can’t refuse like the one the Raiders gave the Bengals for Carson Palmer last year. It wouldn’t be smart for the Lions to give the Jaguars an offer they can’t refuse just to sign a guy who hasn’t practiced with a team since last season a giant contract, especially since he plays a position that has a short shelf self. Besides, the Lions’ running back issues are more urgent than a just “wait and see” on MJD.

One name who makes a lot of sense is the Saints’ Chris Ivory. Ivory is a talented back who has always stepped up when injuries have struck for the Saints at running back as the 2010 undrafted free agent has averaged 5.0 YPC in his career on 216 carries. However, the Saints have 3 guys locked into spots at running back, Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles, and Pierre Thomas and don’t have an obvious need for Ivory.

He’ll need the Saints to keep 4 running backs to avoid being a final cut and even if they do, they may opt to keep undrafted rookie Travaris Cadet over him because Cadet is more versatile. It probably wouldn’t take a whole lot for the Saints to part with Ivory in a trade and he could have a big impact for the Lions as an insurance policy at running back. Owed just $540,000 this season, before being a restricted free agent this offseason, he wouldn’t be cost prohibitive for the Lions at all either.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Washington Redskins trade CB Kevin Barnes to the Detroit Lions

stevenlourie Commanders, Lions, News

Trade for Lions: Wow. The Lions must have been really desperate for defensive back help to trade for Kevin Barnes. I know they didn’t give up much, but Barnes might have been a final cut next week. If they wanted him, all they really had to do was wait and put in a waiver claim on him or someone of similar caliber. Barnes was awful last season as the Redskins’ nickel cornerback, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 86th ranked cornerback out of 98. He lost his job this offseason to Cedric Griffin and had been moving around from cornerback to safety to cornerback.

I guess he can provide depth at both of those positions for the Lions, but if he has to see serious action, he’ll get burned again. Considering the state of the Lions’ secondary, he may have to. #1 cornerback Chris Houston is a good player, who allowed 46 completions on 87 attempts (52.9%) for 593 yards (6.8 YPA), 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties. However, they don’t have a solidified starter opposite him. 3rd round rookie Dwight Bentley is competing with mediocre veteran Jacob Lacey, who allowed 50 completions on 68 attempts for 509 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 5 penalties last season with the Colts.

At safety, Louis Delmas is solid in coverage, but can’t seem to stay healthy. After missing 5 games and most of a 6th last season, Delmas recently had knee surgery and is no sure thing for week 1. He also struggles against the run, missing 11 tackles last year on run snaps last year, to only 26 solo tackles, 0 assists, and 11 stops. Out of 88 safeties, only 2 had a worse tackling efficiency rate on run snaps and only 5 had a worse rate overall. Meanwhile, opposite safety Amari Spievey was even worse overall, as only 3 safeties had a worse rating overall on ProFootballFocus than him last season.

Grade: C

Trade for Redskins: The Redskins are the obvious winners here since they were probably going to cut Barnes anyway next week. They didn’t get much, but it’s better than nothing. Barnes was serving no purpose for them.

Grade: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Lions keeping an eye on free agent running backs

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions have a talented trio of backs in Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, and Kevin Smith, but that trio also happens to be incredibly injury prone. Best is expected to start the season on the PUP and miss at least 6 games as he recovers from concussions suffered last season. He might not be able to play at all this season. Leshoure, meanwhile, is coming off a torn Achilles and has yet to play in a preseason game. Smith has suffered several injuries in his career as well, which have limited him to 106 carries in the last 2 seasons.

Behind them on the depth chart, all the Lions have is Keiland Williams, a mediocre 2010 undrafted free agent who has a career average of 3.7 YPC on 123 career carries. For this reason, it’s no surprise that the Lions are keeping an eye on free agent running backs. They were tied to Cedric Benson before he signed with division rival Green Bay earlier this month.

After him, the most obvious veteran running back left on the market for them would be Ryan Grant, but it’s telling that the Packers decided to sign Benson rather than resigning Grant, who was familiar with the team and the system. As he heads into his age 30 season, he might be done. While no deal seems imminent, the Lions have brought in several backs for visits and could sign one of them during the season if Leshoure or Smith gets hurt again.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Detroit Lions Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Titus Young

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Lions

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Detroit Lions, that player is wide receiver Titus Young.

Young was a 2nd round pick in 2011 and had an immediate impact as a rookie, catching 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns. In his 2nd year in the league, he’s fully expected to win the starting job opposite Calvin Johnson in Detroit’s explosive offense. The starter last season was Nate Burleson, who had 110 targets. If Young had gotten that many targets last season, he’d have had 66 catches for 832 yards and 8 touchdowns. Even though Detroit might not pass quite as many times as they did last season (a league leading 666 times), Titus Young could still exceed even those numbers.

He’s no longer a rookie. Rookie receivers tend to struggle. Discounting Julio Jones and AJ Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007. And Young did all that as a 2nd round rookie, coming off a lockout.

In his 2nd year in the league, he should be much improved, especially if reports about his strong offseason are accurate and translate to the regular season. MLive’s Anwar Richardson, one of the most reliable sources on the Lions, called Young “almost impossible to stop during practices” and “amazing” and said that “nobody can defend” him, while Head Coach Jim Schwartz said that he was outstanding. He’ll see mostly single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson, and with his natural abilities in Detroit’s explosive offense, he could push for a 1000 yard year in his 2nd year in the league, which would definitely make him a breakout player.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Lions’ Jahvid Best “weeks, not days” away from returning

stevenlourie Lions, News

According to the Detroit Free Press, Jim Schwartz says Jahvid Best is still “weeks” away from practicing. He probably will not return until the 3rd preseason game at the latest. Meanwhile, Mikel Leshoure is still not 100% back from a torn Achilles and will miss the first 2 games with a suspension. Because of this, Kevin Smith will almost definitely be their week 1 starter and could be much more if he impresses early. There’s definite sleeper value here in fantasy circles.

Meanwhile, as for Best, even when he returns, he’ll only be used in a Darren Sproles role to keep him fresh. Sproles is good in fantasy circles in the Darren Sproles role, but he’s the only one. If Best has the mere 87 carries Sproles had last season, he’ll be undraftable in non-PPR leagues. Sproles only had fantasy value because he averaged 6.9 YPC and caught 86 passes for 710 yards and 7 touchdowns. Not a lot of guys can do that.

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Detroit Lions 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Lions, News

DE Cliff Avril

The Lions franchised Avril this offseason, giving him 10.6 million guaranteed, but failed to reach a long term agreement with him, after he rejected their 3 year, 30 million dollar deal, with 20 million guaranteed. Avril skipped the early part of Training Camp in protest. Avril is an excellent pass rusher, who has managed 21 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 82 quarterback pressures in the last 2 seasons. However, the Lions have seemed weary of committing to him long term and, possessing adequate depth behind him at defensive end, I doubt they’d tag him again in 2013, at the rate of 12.72 million (120% of his 2012 salary, as per league rules), barring a massive season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

S Louis Delmas

When healthy, Louis Delmas is a solid safety and safeties have been franchised 4 times in the last 2 seasons because of how cheap the safety franchise tag is (just 6.2 million in 2012). However, I don’t think he’s quite yet on the level of Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Griffin, all of whom have been franchised in the last 2 seasons. He’ll need to stay healthy and have a career best season in 2012 to be worthy of the tag. Since he had recent knee surgery and could miss the start of the season, that seems unlikely.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

K Jason Hanson

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. Without another obvious candidate, Hanson makes some sense as a career 81.9% kicker, but that’s only assuming he still wants to play heading into his age 43 season in 2013 and that he can even still kick well at that age (not completely unheard of).

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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