News

Raiders expect Denarius Moore to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Raiders

Denarius Moore missed most of the preseason and Training Camp with hamstring problems, despite initially suffering the injury in June, and now it sounds like he’ll be a game time decision. If he doesn’t start, undrafted free agent Rod Streater, an offseason standout, would start as Jacoby Ford is also out with a foot injury. The problem for Moore owners in fantasy football is that this game is on Monday Night, so if you put him in your lineup, your options to replace him before the game will be very limited.

It’s not worth starting him unless you also own one of the two San Diego receivers (Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem) or teammate Darrius Heyward-Bey. As good as Streater was this preseason, he’s still not a true handcuff for Moore. Even if I did own one of those players, I still probably wouldn’t start Moore because hamstring problems tend to linger and can limit your abilities noticable, even if you do play, especially for a speed receiver like Moore.

Moore is incredibly talented. In 6 healthy games with Carson Palmer last year, not including the Kansas City game where Palmer played but didn’t start, Moore caught 19 passes for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 51 catches for 1083 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games and that was as a 5th round rookie. However, he missed 3 games with injury last year and now this. On top of those injuries, he needs to become more consistent on a game to game basis. Still, all the tools are there for him.

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Bills’ Steve Johnson could be limited by groin injury

stevenlourie Bills, News

Steve Johnson is becoming a notorious Darrelle Revis killer; he’s as notorious for that as he is for his premature touchdown dances. Johnson caught 3 passes for 84 yards, all against Revis, week 9 last year, and then another 8 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown, again all against Revis, week 12 last year. That touchdown was the only touchdown Revis allowed last year and those 11 catches accounted for 31.4% of the 35 catches that Johnson allowed last year. The 159 yards were 31.3% of the 508 yards he allowed. Unsurprisingly, those two games against the Bills were Revis’ 2 worst yardage games of the season.

However, there’s a chance the “Revis Killer” could be limited for the season opener against Revis and the Jets with groin problems. He was limited in practice throughout the week, although he says he’s not concerned, even though this injury caused him problems last year, saying “I’m not concerned at all about having to deal with this like I did last year.” He might just be down playing the injury and I can‘t see how this isn’t related to the problems he was having this year.

They need him to be 100%, not just because he’s a “Revis Killer”, but because he’s an overall talented receiver on a team that lacks receiving depth. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s caught 158 passes for 2077 yards and 17 touchdowns and was given a well deserved 5 year, 36.25 million dollar deal worth 18.05 million guaranteed this offseason. However, they only have 3 other receivers behind him on the depth chart, 4 if you count wildcat quarterback Brad Smith.

Donald Jones, an inexperienced 2010 undrafted free agent, will start opposite Johnson. He has 41 catches for 444 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 seasons. Their 2nd leading receiver last year was David Nelson, who caught 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’ll play in the slot. In an attempt to fix their wide receiver problems, they used a 3rd round pick on TJ Graham, but he’s just 4th on the depth chart, which makes sense because the raw receiver was only a 1 year starter in college.

Tight end Scott Chandler doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher either, especially outside of the red zone, as he caught 38 passes for 389 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. Johnson played fine through a similar injury last year, so it’s not a huge issue. However, if Johnson isn’t 100% or Revis is able to shut him down, the Bills could have a lot of trouble moving the ball through the air against the Jets, though they can still win since the Jets should have the same problems.

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Dolphins put Artis Hicks on IR, could sign Jake Scott

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

Right guard figures to be a major problem for the Dolphins this season. 2010 3rd round pick John Jerry was supposed to be the solution at right guard for them, with incumbent Vernon Carey retiring, but, already a poor fit for their zone blocking scheme, Jerry showed up out of shape this offseason and lost his starting job to Artis Hicks, a 34 year old who struggled in limited action as a backup in Cleveland last season. Hicks is now on IR with neck problems that might end his career, meaning Jerry will start by default.

However, the Dolphins still don’t seem impressed with Jerry as they are reportedly interested in signing free agent Jake Scott, who they worked out earlier this offseason, according to the Miami Herald. Scott played well in pass protection last year for the Tennessee Titans, but he was a terrible run blocker and at age 31, there’s a reason he’s still unsigned this close to the start of the season. That’s how bad things are at right guard for the Dolphins. Whoever starts there figures to struggle.

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Seahawks expect Doug Baldwin to play, Golden Tate to miss

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Even though he missed all of the preseason after undergoing hamstring surgery, the Seahawks expect Doug Baldwin to play and man the slot at wide receiver this week against the Arizona Cardinals. The same can’t be said for Golden Tate, who was originally supposed to split snaps at one starting wide receiver spot with Braylon Edwards. Tate has a knee problem that will keep him out for this week and possibly even more as he has not been given a timetable for return. Edwards will start in his absence, opposite Sidney Rice.

It’s a situation to avoid in fantasy, especially with a 3rd round rookie making his first regular season start under center. This receiving corps also won’t help Russell Wilson out much. The Seahawks are going to have to win a lot of games this year by running the football, playing strong defense, and avoiding turnovers, unless Wilson can prove his preseason was not a fluke.

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Patriots aren’t expecting Brian Waters to show up

stevenlourie News, Patriots

The Patriots held out to the very last moment, keeping his locker and his spot on the roster, but it appears that Brian Waters is not walking through that door for the Patriots. According to the Boston Herald, the Patriots have taken his nameplate off the locker and any speculation that Waters could return “should just about come to an end.” Waters presence for the season was a question all offseason, but apparently the Patriots wanted him to take a pay cut down to the veteran’s minimum heading into his age 35 season and he didn’t feel it was worth leaving his family in Texas for that.

Waters will definitely be missed. ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated guard in 2011, Waters would have almost certainly been an asset to the Patriots even at his age. His presence would have not only upgraded the right guard position, where the mediocre Dan Connolly now starts, but it would have allowed Connolly to move to center, where would have provided a more experienced option over Ryan Wendell, a former undrafted free agent who won the job over Dan Koppen in the preseason. Wendell has played well in his career in limited action, but it remains to be seen if he can keep it up over a full season.

The Patriots offensive line is looking like a real problem, especially since Sebastian Vollmer is questionable for week 1 with lower back problems. Left tackle Nate Solder is a 2011 1st round rookie who needs to step it up this season as Brady’s full time blindside protector. Only left guard Logan Mankins is dependable on this line. Tom Brady is not on the level of Drew Brees and Peyton Manning when it comes to dealing with pressure. He’s taken a sack on 15.7% pressured drop backs, which is good, but not great.

He also only has completed 220 of 441 passes (49.9%) and thrown 23 touchdowns to 13 interceptions under pressure over the last 3 season, as opposed to 994 for 1425 (69.8%) with 94 touchdowns to 24 interceptions while not under pressure. If you want to nitpick his game, this is the area to do it. If you can beat his offensive line with 4 guys (like the Giants), Brady is stoppable. This has a chance to derail what otherwise looks like an explosive offense with the addition of Brandon Lloyd at wide receiver and Stevan Ridley emerging at running back.

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Jake Long expected to suit up for Dolphins

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

He gave them a scare, but it appears that Jake Long’s MCL sprain, suffered last week in practice, was of the minor variety and he will be able to play against Houston this week. He’s listed as probable and practiced in full Friday. If he hadn’t been able to go, simply put, the Dolphins would have been screwed against a Texans defense that ranked 4th in scoring and 6th in defense last year, with a raw rookie quarterback under center, no good receivers, and no true above average starter on the offensive line. Even with Long though, their outlook looks pretty bleak against the Texans in Houston. It’s more of a question of whether or not the Dolphins can cover as 13 point underdog, the biggest line this week, than if they can win. Anyone who plays Survivor Leagues should feel confident in picking Houston this week.

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Jets expect Dustin Keller to play, but not Sione Pouha

stevenlourie Jets, News

When the Jets take on the Bills this week, tight end Dustin Keller, who has been limited in practice, is expected to play, but nose tackle Sione Pouha will not. Keller’s presence will be a good thing because he led this miserable receiving corps in receiving last year, but Rex Ryan didn’t sound too confident about his chances to be 100% saying, “We’ll see how much it will limit him. I’m not sure, but he practiced today.” The last thing they need is their best receiver to be less than 100%. Santonio Holmes is also nursing some injury problems and Stephen Hill, their 2nd round rookie, is incredibly raw, though it’s not like Mark Sanchez would be able to get the most out of them anyway.

The Jets have a good defense and so do the Bills, so this should be a defensive, low scoring game, which is why Pouha’s absence is significant. Pouha was ProFootballFocus’ #1 defensive tackle last year. No nose tackle stuffs the run like him. 2011 3rd round pick Kenrick Ellis will step into the lineup for him, but it’ll almost definitely be a noticeable downgrade. The Bills talented duo of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller should be able to run on a normally stout Jets defense, 7th in the league last year.

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Jaguars rule out Daryl Smith, Derek Cox

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

The Jaguars will not only be without Maurice Jones-Drew full strength against the Vikings, as they’re going to limit him to 3rd down work only about a week after a return from suspension, but they will be missing two key defensive players, Daryl Smith and Derek Cox. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missing this game.

Both Smith and Cox missing this game will make things even harder on the Jaguars travelling to Minnesota. The Vikings will also be without star running back Adrian Peterson in his usual capacity, but he’s not as big a part of their offense as MJD, who accounted for 47.7% of the Jaguars yards from scrimmage last year, most since OJ Simpson in 1974. The Vikings also have the superior 2nd year quarterback. In the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league last season.

The Vikings’ back 7 is pretty bad in coverage, which is why they ranked 30th against the pass, allowing 8.1 YPA last year, despite 50 sacks. However, Blaine Gabbert really struggles with pressure in his face and the Vikings can pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the league. Gabbert ranked 2nd worst in the NFL with a 52.9% accuracy percentage under pressure (discounts drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes, and hit as throwns) and worst in the NFL taking a sack on 26.1% of his pressured drop backs.

Unless he is a dramatically different quarterback in the face of pressure from last year to this year, he doesn’t figure to be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s poor back 7 in coverage. The Vikings 6th ranked run defense from 2011 should be able to stop Jennings and the Jaguars will have trouble moving the football. Ponder, meanwhile, won’t against a Jacksonville defense missing Smith and Cox.

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Chargers’ Ryan Matthews won’t play week 1, sets sights on week 2

stevenlourie Chargers, News

He did some work in practice this week, but Ryan Mathews has been officially ruled out by the Chargers’ coaching staff for their Monday Night game against the Oakland Raiders. Mathews said of the situation “the next game, that’s what I’m looking for now. I don’t know about the team, but me personally, now I’m looking for that game against Tennessee.” Since he did some practice this week, it sounds like he’ll be able to go next week, which would be right in the middle of the 4-6 week prognosis he was given after the August 9th injury.

In his absence, the Chargers will use a trio of Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and Le’Ron McClain and though none of those backs stand out and it initially sounded like they would split carries and cancel each other out in fantasy, it now sounds like Brown will be the lead back. Norv Turner loves using feature backs and he seems to like Brown, saying of him that he will be “very involved.” Brown isn’t a very talented back, heading into his age 31 season after averaging just 3.2 YPC last season, but he’ll get volume yardage and the Raiders had the league’s worst run defense last year, so he’s startable in fantasy.

He’s obviously a downgrade from Mathews though and for a Chargers’ offense missing left tackle Jared Gaither and wide receiver Vincent Brown already, Philip Rivers has his work cut out for him, even against the Raiders’ terrible defense. The Raiders have enough offensive firepower and the crowd will be crazy in Oakland for a rare Monday night home game so the Chargers will need to avoid their annual early season funk or they could lose. More likely, I think the Chargers beat the Raiders in unimpressive fashion the way they beat teams similar caliber teams like Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, and Denver last year, to start 4-1.

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Colts expect Austin Collie to be a game time decision

stevenlourie Colts, News

Austin Collie suffered his 4th concussion in 21 months last month, but it was of the minor variety and he’s been practicing all week. However, he has yet to be cleared to participate in game action and if he isn’t by game time tomorrow, he won’t be allowed to play so it sounds like he’ll be a game time decision and even that might be optimistic. You obviously want to be cautious for this type of injury, even minor ones, and he won’t be cleared unless he’s definitely able to go, so it doesn’t sound like he will be. He sounds like a pretty good bet for week 2 though since he’s been practicing. Reggie Wayne will get a bump in fantasy this week, even against Chicago’s stout passing defense, while the rest of Indianapolis’ receiving corps is off limits. Either Donnie Avery or 3rd round rookie TY Hilton would get the start in place of Collie.

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