Vikings’ Adrian Peterson on pace to play week 1

Adrian Peterson will not see any preseason action this year. However, he still remains on pace to play week 1, less than 9 months after he tore his ACL last December. Peterson, obviously one of the league’s fastest healers, has been activated off the PUP and practicing for over a week now, after months of looking impressing doing side work, and has had no swelling in the surgical repaired knee. He’s expected to be cleared for contact next week.

There is precedent for this type of recovery from injury as Wes Welker recovered from a torn ACL in roughly 8 months for the 2010 season. However, Welker was pretty bad in 2010, especially by his standards, catching 86 passes for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns. Aside from that year, his worst season in a Patriots uniform was 2008, when Matt Cassel was the quarterback and Welker caught 111 passes for 1165 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Peterson also won’t see nearly as many carries as he normally does, even if he does play week 1. Peterson has carried the ball 19.3 times per game in his career, 308 times per 16 games. However, the Vikings will want to be cautious with him, especially early in the season. They aren’t legitimate contenders this season so the emphasis will obviously be more on getting the old Peterson back for 2013, rather than getting all they can get out of him in 2012. Backup Toby Gerhart will see a good amount of carries behind him for the first 4-8 games of the season and may even begin the season as the starter. At his current ADP of 13th overall, Peterson is really being overdrafted in fantasy leagues.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Bears unsure Brian Urlacher will be ready for the opener

Brian Urlacher is the most recognizable Bears defender, maybe even the most recognizable Bears player, after how long he’s been there. However, the Bears are reportedly pessimistic about his availability for the opener, according to NFL.com, after two knee surgeries this offseason. Urlacher also got what’s colloquially known as “Kobe surgery” in Europe this offseason, referring to the platelet rich injection that Kobe Bryant famously started getting over the past couple of years.

It’s doesn’t sound like, either way, that Urlacher will miss that many games with this injury and may even be ready to go week 1. However, it’s definitely a concerning situation for a player who is entering his age 34 season. Urlacher was ProFootballFocus’ 12th rated middle linebacker last season, but if his body is breaking down, his days of being that kind of player might be over.

Still, the Bears should be able to have one of the best defenses in the league again this season. Urlacher is hardly their only good player and linebackers are not quite as important of a position as guys who rush the passer or cover receivers. The Bears have a great pass rusher in Julius Peppers, a budding star at defensive tackle in Henry Melton, two young, talented defensive lineman in Shea McClellin and Stephen Paea, and, a strong secondary that allowed just 6.8 YPA last season, 8th best in the NFL, on top of, of course Lance Briggs and Urlacher when healthy.

They ranked 14th in the league, allowing 21.3 points per game last year, but were less than a point per game out of the top-10. They could have a top-10 defense to compliment what was a top-10 offense last year before injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, averaging 26.8 points per game in 10 games and going 7-3. That points per game figure would have ranked 5th in the league last year, had they maintained it over a season. The Bears also added Brandon Marshall this offseason and did some addition by subtraction by getting rid of Mike Martz, whose scheme their personnel never fit. They’re one of the league’s best teams and could be Super Bowl contenders.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Colts’ Austin Collie has no plans to retire

Austin Collie suffered his 4th concussion in 21 months last week, leading many to call for him to retire. However, the concussion is seemingly as minor as they come and with concussions, there’s a greater importance on severity of concussions than number of concussions. He’s reportedly felt “really good” since and the Colts are calling him just “day-to-day” and have not ruled him out for the opener yet. Collie said today, and confirmed by his father, that he will continue to play “so long as the Colts will have him,” which it seems like they will.

I think anyone calling for Collie to retire is ridiculous. Yes, concussions are serious matters, but people seem to like to pretend to be a doctor and pretend they know what’s best for Collie. This is a matter that should be decided between Collie, his doctors, and no one else. If he wants to continue playing and gets cleared medically to do so, why shouldn’t he be allowed to decide to do that? Football is obviously very important to him and he should be allowed to spend his life the way he chooses to live it.

In fantasy leagues, Collie remains a major fantasy sleeper. He’s a very talented football player who has great chemistry with quarterback Andrew Luck. In 2010, he caught 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in only 9 games because of injuries. Injuries also knocked him out of several games, so he didn’t play 9 full games. In fact, Collie managed just 286 routes run in 2010 because of injuries and yet still had good production. Collie ranked 9th in the NFL in yards per route run with 2.27.

In 2011, he didn’t mesh with any of the new quarterbacks and lost his starting job and ended up being the Colts’ 3rd receiver on a poor passing offense and his stats showed that as he caught just 54 passes for 514 yards and a touchdown, though he did play all 16 games. However, Pierre Garcon is gone so the starting job is Collie’s so long as he’s healthy and he’ll mesh much better with Andrew Luck than any of their quarterbacks last year because Luck is a similar style quarterback to Peyton Manning.

Their only other non-rookie receivers are Donnie Avery, who has caught just 3 passes in the last 2 seasons because of injuries, and Reggie Wayne, who is heading into his age 34 season, which is right around when even elite wide receivers see their abilities fall off a cliff. At his current ADP in the 11th round, he’s definitely worth the risk as a sleeper and will be worth that pick assuming he plays most of the Colts’ games.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Colts going to make big trade?

Colts’ Owner Jim Irsay is an avid Twitter user and the Colts’ new regime is known for making bold moves, especially this offseason as they’ve committed themselves fully to the rebuilding project, cutting several well known veterans. Irsay made waves with a series of tweets today, tweeting “TRADE WINDS BLOWING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SERIOUS TRADE WINDS Swirling! We’re talking given up high pick for SERIOUS Vet/Starter!.. these deals often crumble n don’t reach completion. Colts Fans..Your GM Mr Grigson isn’t afraid to roll the dice n aggressively improve YOUR Indianapolis Colts..n my check book stands ready!, 9 times out of 10 these deals fizzle out like a faulty Roman Candle;any other info at this time is proprietary,must move behind the curtain!”

The obvious names that people speculated were Mike Wallace and Maurice Jones-Drew, but those two are very unlikely, especially since neither of those player’s teams are willing to trade those players. The Colts could really use an upgrade at any position as they haven’t drafted a Pro-Bowler since 2006, so a number of other players could be in the running, specifically players who are looking for long term contracts who are not getting them from their current teams.

NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora believes it will be an offensive lineman, leading to some floating the name of Broncos’ left tackle Ryan Clady out there. Clady rejected a 5 year, 50 million dollar extension from the Broncos earlier this month, as he heads into a contract year. The Broncos don’t seem to be willing to pay him what he’s worth. Clady would play left tackle for the Colts and move 2011 1st round pick Anthony Castonzo to right tackle, where the Colts have a huge hole right now. However, it’s unlikely that the Broncos, who feel they are built to win now with a 36 year old quarterback, trade Clady, especially this close to the season, even if they feel they can’t keep him after the season.

Meanwhile, Phil Richards of the Indianapolis Star, one of the Colts’ best beat writers, predicts it will be a cornerback. The names of the Ravens’ Cary Williams and the Dolphins’ Vontae Davis have been floated around. Williams is heading into the final year of his deal and could lose his job to 2011 1st round pick Jimmy Smith after a rough preseason. Williams reportedly rejected a 3 year, 15 million dollar extension earlier this offseason and may now be regretting it after getting torched by Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, and Justin Blackmon so far in the preseason. The definition of a marginal cornerback, Williams allowed 61 completions on 116 attempts (52.6%) for 863 yards (7.4 YPA), 4 touchdowns and no interceptions, while deflecting 14 passes and committing 5 penalties in 2011, his first year as a starter.

Davis, meanwhile, actually has two more years left on his deal. However, despite playing very well last season, he reportedly showed up out of shape for Training Camp and has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff, who has moved him to the 2nd string on the depth chart and forced him to win back his starting job against Sean Smith and Richard Marshall. Davis allowed 36 completions on 66 attempts (54.5%) for 496 yards (7.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 4 penalties last year.

Sean Smith has reportedly done the opposite of Davis this offseason, showing up to camp slimmed down 24 pounds to 6-3 190, making a strong impression, and looking poised to bounce back from a down season. In 2011 he allowed 61 completions on 104 attempts (58.7%) for 793 yards (7.6 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties. In 2010, he allowed 24 completions on 45 attempts (53.3%) for 325 yards (7.2 YPA), 1 touchdown and 1 interception, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 1 penalty in 11 starts at cornerback.

Richard Marshall, meanwhile, is looking continue his strong play from 2011. He allowed 28 completions on 54 attempts (51.9%) for 394 yards (7.3 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties last season. He ranked 3rd in the league in receptions per coverage snap, 7th in yards per coverage snap, and 2nd in targets per coverage snap. Davis might be an option for a trade if he hasn’t done enough to earn back his starting job. I think it’s probably more likely that no trade happens, but it’s fun to speculate and a trade certainly seems possible.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Randy Moss won’t start for 49ers?

When the 49ers signed Randy Moss, it was certainly a high profile move for a team that lacked high profile wide receivers, but he was out of the league in 2011 and caught just 28 passes with 3 teams in 2010, so it’s fair to question how much he has left, if anything, as he heads into his age 35 season. One of the most telling things is how a team views a player. For the 49ers and the Randy Moss, it doesn’t look like they view him as a starter.

Multiple reports, including ones from SI and ESPN, say that Moss will not start for the 49ers this season. ESPN says that Moss will play in a receiver rotation this season, while SI reports that the 49ers want Moss to play about 20-25 snaps per game. Neither of those things says starter. Another offseason acquisition, Mario Manningham, has had a strong Training Camp and preseason and would be the most likely choice to start opposite Michael Crabtree, though remember, they will be rotating receivers.

Moss is off the fantasy radar as are all 49er receivers other than Crabtree. Even Crabtree should not be rated very high as he’s not likely to get the 72 catches for 857 yards and 4 touchdowns he had last season with all these new targets around him. Only Vernon Davis is worth getting excited about in fantasy circles. After Davis finally got Jim Harbaugh’s playbook down last season, he caught fire late and caught 28 passes for 538 yards and 5 touchdowns in their last 5 games, including playoffs. He should bounce back to his 2009 and 2010 levels of production (78/965/13 and 56/914/7) after a down season in 2011 (67/792/6).

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Patriots cut Jonathan Fanene

The Patriots have cut defensive lineman Jonathan Fanene roughly 5 months after giving him 3 year, 12 million dollar deal with a 3.85 million dollar bonus. Fanene played pretty well as an inside/outside defensive lineman for the Bengals last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures on 332 pass rush snaps, a 8.7% rate, and he also played the run well. With the Patriots, he was supposed to be a versatile rotational defensive lineman, playing defensive end in their 3-4 and defensive tackle and defensive end in their 4-3.

However, Fanene missed a lot of Training Camp with knee problems and will need surgery, which is why the Patriots cut him. Ordinarily, the Patriots would have to eat that 3.85 million dollar bonus, but they released him under a “failure to disclose physical condition” designation, suggesting that Fanene had a condition that he didn’t notify the Patriots about. If that is, in fact, the case, they’ll be entitled to get back at least a large chunk of that signing bonus. As for Fanene, the Bengals are thin at defensive end and might welcome him back, but he’ll miss 1-2 months after knee surgery first.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Seahawks not expecting a Marshawn Lynch suspension in 2012

According to a report from ESPN.com, the Seahawks have not heard anything about a potential Marshawn Lynch suspension and they are taking the no news as good news after Lynch’s DUI arrest last month. Lynch had been arrested 3 other times in his career and got a 3 game suspension in 2009, though all of his prior transgressions were in violation of the league’s personal conduct policy and this alleged offense was in violation of the league’s substance abuse policy.

Previous reports have also said that Roger Goodell wants to wait until the results of Lynch’s trial before determining punishment, which could very well not be until the 2013 season. Unlike Kenny Britt, Lynch has yet to be called up for a visit with the commissioner, which is good news. Lynch should be ready to go week 1 and play all 16 games if healthy.

I’d just be wary of buying too high on him. He runs behind a poor offensive line on a generally poor offense and he doesn’t catch a lot of passes. Plus, before last year, he didn’t really do much of note in the prior 2 years and, given his history, he could slack off now that he’s gotten paid. I’d let him be someone else’s problem in fantasy leagues unless he really fell.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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James Starks, Graham Harrell on Packers’ roster bubble

There was a time when James Starks looked like the starting running back for the Packers. Even though Starks had injury issues dating back to his days at the University of Buffalo and had averaged just 4.2 YPC on only 162 career carries in 2 years after going in the 6th round in 2010, the Packers were committed to him as the starter for most of the offseason. However, after a rough Training Camp and preseason and then a turf toe injury that still has him sidelined and likely will into the season, the Packers signed Cedric Benson, a similar style veteran back, to essentially take his job.

Now, if the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is to be believed, Starks is in danger of losing his roster spot all together as the Packers could keep Brandon Saine, a much less injury prone back, over him at final cuts, if the team does decide to keep only 3 running backs. Saine was an undrafted free agent just last year and rushed for just 69 yards on 18 carries last year (3.8 YPC), but he doesn’t have Starks’ injury history so he’s a much more reliable #3 back and the Packers have been high on him all offseason. Either way, Cedric Benson looks entrenched as the starter, with 2011 3rd round pick Alex Green serving as the change of pace back.

Graham Harrell, meanwhile, is currently listed as the Packers’ #2 quarterback, but struggled mightily in his first extended playing time last week, completing 12 of 24 for just 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against Cleveland’s 2nd and 3rd string defenders. He will get another chance to prove himself this week, but he might need to do a lot to earn back the respect of the coaching staff. The 2009 undrafted free agent has yet to throw a regular season pass in the NFL.

If he doesn’t turn it around quickly, the Packers are fully expected to pursue either Colt McCoy or Tarvaris Jackson from the Browns and Seahawks respectively as veteran backups for Aaron Rodgers. If that happens, Harrell will need the Packers to keep 3 quarterbacks AND cut 7th round rookie BJ Coleman, currently the 3rd string quarterback, to make the roster. The same Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel mentioned him as a potential final cut and they may very well be right about that.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Bills release Shawne Merriman

It may be lights out for lights out. Shawne “lights out” Merriman had 40 sacks in his first 3 years in the league from 2005-2007 with the Chargers after going in the 1st round in 2005, but he’s had just 5 sacks in 4 seasons since. Though he was reportedly in better shape than any of the past few years this offseason, leading some to expect him to carve out a situational role on the Bills’ defensive line, his salary of 4 million dollars was too much for the Bills and they cut him ahead of final cuts.

Even though he’s only heading into his age 28 season, he won’t generate much interest on the open market, so close to final cuts (September 2nd). This might be it for his career. It’s telling that the Rams, in need of defensive end depth, tried out Andre Carter and Vernon Gholston, signing Gholston, but didn’t give Merriman a look.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Steelers expect James Harrison back for week 1

James Harrison had a knee scope last week, but the procedure was minor and both he and the Steelers expect him to be out there week 1, even though he’s missed all of Training Camp. Harrison is obviously a huge part of the Steelers’ defense, with 9 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 276 pass rush snaps last year, a rate of 16.7%.

As tremendous as that rate is, it’s nothing new for Harrison, who had 38 sacks, 35 quarterback hits, and 99 quarterback pressures from 2008-2010 on 1208 pass rush snaps, a rate of 14.2%. One of the league most well rounded players, Harrison also drops into coverage and stops the run well. However, he’s heading into his age 34 season and he missed 5 games with injury last year so it’s fair to wonder if his body is starting to break down.

His injury would not be nearly as big of a deal if Jason Worilds were healthy, but the 2010 2nd round pick has missed since June with a wrist injury and has no timetable to return. Filling in when guys went down with injury last year, Worilds did his best Harrison impression, at least as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hit, and 20 quarterback pressures on 204 pass rush snaps, a rate of 14.7%. In the absence of both Worilds and Harrison, Chris Carter is playing with the first team in practice and in preseason games. The 2011 5th round pick played just 46 snaps as a rookie last year.

The Steelers also don’t want to move Lawrence Timmons back outside, which they did last year. Timmons, ProFootballFocus’ highest rated middle linebacker in 2010, struggled mightily on the outside last year, especially as a pass rusher with just 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback pressure on 114 pass rush snaps in 4 starts, a pathetic 2.6% rate.

He’s not a natural pass rusher at all and the Steelers would just be weakening two positions at once by moving him out there since he’s so good at middle linebacker. The Steelers would obviously be best off if Harrison could play week 1 or early in the season at the latest. It sounds like there’s a good chance he does that, but he’s no guarantee to remain healthy after he returns. Hopefully Worilds will be back by then.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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