Ben Watson could be a final cut for Browns

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie Browns, News

Ben Watson was the Browns’ leading receiver as recently as 2010, producing very good numbers for a tight end, catching 68 passes for 763 yards and 3 touchdowns, with the former two stats being career highs. After largely failing to live up to his expectations in New England as a 2004 1^st round pick, it seemed that Watson had finally emerged as an above average starting tight end. However, in 2011, he regressed, catching just 37 passes for 410 yards and 2 scores. Heading into his age 32 season, he’s apparently even on the roster bubble according to the Canton Repository.

This makes some sense as Watson is owed 2.88 million this season and they have a young tight end on the roster behind him waiting for a chance, 2011 4^th round pick Jordan Cameron, who is having a strong offseason. Watson didn’t help his case by missing a big chunk of Training Camp with an unspecified injury. Another tight end reportedly on the roster bubble is Evan Moore, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Moore, currently 4^th on the depth chart, has missed time this preseason with hamstring problems and is owed 1.88 million next season. He also has 62 career catches, but 34 of them were last season for the 2008 undrafted free agent. The Browns will almost certainly cut a tight end as it’s unlikely that they’ll go into 2012 with all 4 of Watson, Cameron, Moore, and Alex Smith. Smith seems locked in as a blocking specialist and Cameron has been really impressing this offseason, so it would appear to be between Watson and Moore for the final roster spot. If they don’t care about financials, they’ll keep Watson. If not, it’ll probably be Moore making the roster.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Rams sign Vernon Gholston

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie News, Rams

Obviously feeling the need for added defensive end depth, the Rams worked out Andre Carter and Vernon Gholston over the past 2 days, signing Gholston today. The Rams have one of the best defensive ends in the league, Chris Long, who had 13 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 58 quarterback pressures on 515 pass rush snaps last year, an amazing 16.1% rate.

They also have a budding star in Robert Quinn, the 14^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, who will be a starter this year after excelling in a situational role as a rookie, with 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures on 341 pass rush snaps, good for an also impressive 10.6% rate. Meanwhile, free agent acquisition and 3^rd string defensive end Williams Hayes thrived in Jeff Fisher’s scheme in Tennessee in 2010, with 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 326 pass rush snaps, a rate of 9.2%. Still, they felt they needed added depth at the position.

That being said, Gholston didn’t play a snap in the NFL last season, after being signed by the Bears before the season and then cut as part of final cuts. If the Bears couldn’t turn around the career of Gholston, the 6^th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, I don’t think he’ll ever get his career turned around. In 3 years with the Jets from 2008-2010, he didn’t manage a sack and struggled to crack the starting lineup on a consistent basis. With so few days before final cuts (September 2nd) to make an impression, Gholston is more likely to be a final cut than make the 53 man roster.

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Cowboys’ Jason Witten avoids surgery, doubtful for week 1

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie Cowboys, News

Jason Witten got good news today when he found out that his lacerated spleen would not need surgery. After lacerating his spleen in a preseason game against the Raiders last Monday, Witten had to basically sit around and be idle for 7-10 days and wait to see if it healed, otherwise he would have needed surgery. It would seem it has, which is obviously very good news.

However, after spending 7-10 days idle, Witten is unlikely to be ready to play week 1, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Witten’s chances are hurt by the fact that the Cowboys play their opener on Wednesday Night Football against the Giants, September 5th, so they’ll have 4 fewer days to prepare than the rest of the league. Schefter went on to say that it’s “more likely” that Witten would be back week 2, but stopped short of assuring a week 2 return for Witten. More likely, Witten will be back to his old self by week 3.

Witten, who has not missed a game since his rookie year in 2003, has averaged 5.16 catches for 59.07 yards and 0.31 touchdowns per game since 2004. Considering his amazing consistency (between 64 catches for 754 yards and 96 catches for 1145 yards in every season since 2004), he should be able to do that again this season. If he plays 14 games and averages those numbers, he’d have 72 catches for 827 yards and 4 touchdowns. That would seem to be his statistical floor this season. He’s still a safe bet as a TE1 in fantasy leagues. It’s a very deep tight end year so you can find someone to fill in for him in your lineup for a week or two pretty easily.

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Jets won’t commit to Wayne Hunter as week 1 starter

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Jets, News

Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan has publicly stood behind right tackle Wayne Hunter all offseason, even though he was awful last season, his first full season as a starter, committing 11 penalties and allowing 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures. He also struggled as a run blocker and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 67^th offensive tackle out of 73. Privately, he hasn’t been as supportive of Hunter and it showed when the Jets tried to trade for Jeff Otah, an injury prone former 1^st round pick and starter of the Carolina Panthers, before Otah failed to pass a physical and was sent back to Carolina, who eventually cut him.

However, after Hunter’s awful showing in the Jets’ last preseason game, in which he surrendered 3 sacks in just about a half of action, it seems that Ryan’s public support of Hunter is waning. He refused to commit to Hunter as the week 1 starter in an interview with the New York Daily News and the Jets have given backup Austin Howard a bunch of 1^st team reps in practice this week.

Howard and Hunter will probably alternate 1^st team series in the Jets’ 3^rd preseason game this week and Hunter seems like a legitimate option for the Jets week 1. He might not be any better and the 2010 undrafted free agent has only played in 2 games in his career, including one start, surrendering 2 sacks and 2 quarterback pressures week 17 with the Eagles in 2010. However, he can’t be much worse. Either way, right tackle will likely be a position of weakness on the Jets’ offensive line this season.

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Nick Foles to win primary backup job for Eagles?

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Eagles, News

When Mike Kafka, the 2010 4^th round pick who was expected to be the Eagles’ primary backup this season, went down with a hand injury, it opened the door for Nick Foles, a 3^rd round pick rookie originally viewed as a developmental 3^rd string quarterback for this season, to become the Eagles’ primary backup. Foles has been just that in the Eagles’ first 2 preseason games and has definitely impressed, leading all quarterbacks in passing rating for the preseason, completing 24 of 38 (63.2%) for 361 (9.5 YPA) yards, 4 touchdowns, and an interception, a QB rating of 118.4. Foles has definitely given himself a strong chance to remain the Eagles’ 2^nd string quarterback when games count for real.

Foles has come in for an injured Michael Vick in each of the Eagles’ first 2 preseason games as well, as minor hand and rib injuries have knocked him out of the first two preseason games respectively. He’ll be fine for week 1, but it’s just a reminder that Vick is arguably the most injury prone quarterback in the league. In 9 seasons, he’s played all 16 games just once and it’s gotten worse as he’s gotten older. Now heading into his age 32 season, Vick has missed 7 games in the last 2 seasons combined.

Foles will start for Vick in the Eagles’ 3^rd preseason game this week, as Vick is unlikely to play another preseason game, and, assuming Foles wins the job, he’ll probably have to make a few starts this season. If he does, the Eagles should be fine, as long as it’s not too extended of a period. He probably won’t play quite this well, but Andy Reid has a way of making quarterbacks look better than they are (Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, etc.).

Besides, he has arguably the best supporting cast in the league too as the Eagles possess a deep receiving corps, and top 5, if not top 3 running back, and a still above average offensive line, even after the loss of Jason Peters. Defensively, they have one of the best defensive lines in the league, one of the top cornerbacks in the league (Nnamdi Asomugha) and another one with some bounce back potential (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie). Their safeties and linebackers aren’t great, but they’ll be better than they were last season. If anything, Vick is what’s holding up this team.

In the long term, Foles projects as a possible successor to Michael Vick or possible trade chip for Andy Reid. Flipping quarterbacks that he makes look better than they are to unsuspecting teams is one of Reid’s favorite things to do (cut to Cardinals fans nodding sadly). Kafka, meanwhile, will find himself on the roster bubble come final cuts and will need the Eagles to keep 3 quarterbacks to make the roster.

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Cedric Benson is “probable” week 1 starter for Packers

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie News, Packers

After going with a youth movement at running back for the entire offseason, the Packers caved earlier this month and signed veteran running back Cedric Benson after injury prone youngster James Starks suffered a turf toe injury, on top of a rough Training Camp and preseason, that threatened his availability for the regular season. As could be expected, the Packers are likely to start Benson at running back week 1, according to a report from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, which calls him the “probable” week 1 starter.

Starks, an injury prone player dating back to his days at the University of Buffalo, is highly questionable for the regular season opener and may even be on the roster bubble, while Alex Green, a 2011 3^rd round pick who carried the ball just 3 times last season before an ACL tear, will probably only be a change of pace and 3^rd down back. In that role, he should compliment Benson well.

Even though they lack running back talent, the Packers have a good offensive line and a great passing game so all the backs will really need to do is protect the football and run through holes. Benson should be able to do that. The passing game and offensive line will make them look better than they are and then they’ll do the rest on what figures to once again be one of the most explosive offenses in the league.

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Junior Galette to start in absence of Will Smith for Saints

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie News, Saints

Will Smith, the Saints’ leading pass rusher on the defensive line last season, has been suspended for the first 4 games of the season for his role in the Saints’ bounty scandal. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.

However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate.

New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1^st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. The Saints desperately need Galette to step up as a starting caliber defensive end, not just for this season, but for the future. Smith is owed a whopping 9 million in 2013, his age 32 season, and he’s very unlikely to see that money unless he can have a major bounce back season this year, unlikely since he’ll only play 12 games max. If Galette cannot emerge as a successor, they’ll probably have to use an early pick on a defensive end in the 2013 NFL Draft, for the 2^nd time in 3 years.

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Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew: “things will work out”

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Jaguars, News

A day after a spat between Maurice Jones-Drew, the league’s leading rusher in 2011, and Jaguars’ owner Shahid Khan went public and ended with MJD saying that he would welcome a trade, things seem to have calmed down and any talks of his holdout lasting into the regular season seem premature. In an interview with NFL.com, MJD appeared confident, saying “things will work out.” He also went on to say that he would draft himself #1 overall in fantasy leagues, though he did mention that drafting Rashad Jennings as a handcuff would be a good idea.

MJD is obviously upset with his contract, but the Jaguars have maintained a position the whole time that they won’t talk with him about a new deal. Players threaten all the team to hold out into the season, but only in rare cases do they actually follow through. MJD will probably eventually realize that he has nothing to gain, if he hasn’t already, and report for week 1, but he’ll make Jaguars fans and his fantasy owners sweat first.

Even if he does report before week 1, which seems likely, I’d stay away from him in the 1^st round of fantasy drafts. He’s missed an entire offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and may have gotten out of shape. The former is the bigger concern and the whole situation has many similarities to Chris Johnson, who really struggled last season after his holdout, especially early in the season. Like Johnson, MJD has a bunch of touches over the last 3 years (Johnson had 1062, MJD has 1084), normally the sign of a disappointing year for a back anyway.

As for Rashad Jennings, I wouldn’t draft him unless I already had Maurice Jones Drew on my team. He’s a definitely valuable handcuff, but he’s only worth his current ADP in the 9^th round as a handcuff. As for the Jaguars’ offense as a whole, they should struggle once again unless Blaine Gabbert’s decent play in the preseason carries over to the regular season. Any improvement in Gabbert’s game from his rookie year to this year will be nullified by a likely decline in play from MJD, who accounted for 47.7% of their yards last season, by far more than any non-quarterback in the NFL last season.

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Cardinals’ Beanie Wells still having trouble cutting in practice

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Cardinals, News

Though Beanie Wells had what was called minor knee surgery way back in January, he has yet to play in a preseason game. An injury prone player who apparently is a slow healer, Wells is reportedly still struggling to cut in practice, according to XTRA 910 Arizona’s Mike Jurecki. In spite of this, Wells is expected to suit up for his 1^st preseason game this week, but will see limited reps like Ryan Williams, also coming off a knee injury, did last week.

Wells is definitely no sure thing to play all 16 games this season and with a talented backup in Ryan Williams behind him, it’s definitely possible he could lose his starting job or at least significant carries this season, possibly even early in the season. Williams, a 2011 2^nd round pick coming off a knee injury that cost him all of 2011, has looked very good in practice and rushed for 25 yards on 5 carries last week in his first preseason action. He’s a nice fantasy sleeper in the mid to late rounds if you can get him there. Wells, meanwhile, is being overdrafted with a 7^th round ADP.

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Short suspension for Titans’ Kenny Britt?

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie News, Titans

Kenny Britt has been arrested 8 times in his NFL career thus far, after going in the 1^st round in 2009. He would have been suspended last season if it hasn’t been for Roger Goodell’s decision to excuse any arrests that happened during the lockout, during which Britt was arrested 3 times. However, after a recent DUI, Britt is expecting a suspension after a 2^nd visit to the commissioner’s office in the last year. Everyone else is pretty much expecting the same thing, that Britt will be suspended.

However, while ESPN’s Adam Schefter expects him to suspended, he doesn’t expect it to be a very long suspension. Schefter says that it “doesn’t sound like it’s going to be as significant as it could’ve been” and is expecting a 1-3 game suspension for Britt. Britt has also had 3 knee surgeries in the last year, but he’s been impressing on the side and while he probably won’t play in any preseason games, he’s expected to be ready for the opener, though of course, that could be a moot point if Britt is suspended for the opener.

Expect Britt to be suspended for a couple games and by then, he should be healthy and ready to return. There’s always the chance he reinjures himself or doesn’t have his old explosiveness after 3 knee procedures (2 of which were minor, for what it’s worth), but he’s an incredibly talented receiver and he’s still only 23 (24 on September 19^th).

He has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 14 full games, despite playing with largely mediocre quarterbacking, Kerry Collins, Rusty Smith, Vince Young, and Matt Hasselbeck. Jake Locker has the upside to be by far the best quarterback Britt has ever had throwing him the football. He’s worth the risk as a mid round sleeper in fantasy leagues.

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Football Fan Spot

A site for football fans

News

Ben Watson could be a final cut for Browns

Rams sign Vernon Gholston

Cowboys’ Jason Witten avoids surgery, doubtful for week 1

Jets won’t commit to Wayne Hunter as week 1 starter

Nick Foles to win primary backup job for Eagles?

Cedric Benson is “probable” week 1 starter for Packers

Junior Galette to start in absence of Will Smith for Saints

Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew: “things will work out”

Cardinals’ Beanie Wells still having trouble cutting in practice

Short suspension for Titans’ Kenny Britt?