News

Bears rule Matt Forte out, make a change on the offensive line

stevenlourie Bears, News

The Bears had an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 23-10 in a huge game to a division rival. Jay Cutler was under pressure all night, pressured on 21 of 35 drop backs, taking 7 sacks and tossing 4 picks. Cutler was caught on camera screaming at and bumping into left tackle J’Marcus Webb. He has since apologized for the bump and the bump only, which is right.

Anyone overreacting to Cutler’s blow up doesn’t understand the behind the scenes of NFL football. That type of thing happens all the time (no I’ve never played, yes you can still understand the behind the scenes without having played). It’s a passionate sport played by passionate players and any player worth his salt won’t take it personally. It’s only when it’s caught on camera that people overreact. And you can’t knock Cutler for apparently not giving a shit that he was hurt and couldn’t play in the NFC Championship game in 2010 and then knock him for being passionate and competitive on the sideline.

However, the on the field issues still remain coming out of that game. The Bears have had one of the worst offensive lines in the league over the last 3 years and firing Mike Martz, their former offensive coordinator, whose scheme highlighted their offensive line’s deficiencies with many 5 and 7 step drops, didn’t help. The Bears also lost Matt Forte with an injury in that game and he will miss at least a week, though they’re saying it’s not a high ankle sprain.

In an attempt to fix the problems they’re having up front, the Bears have made a change on the offensive line, though it doesn’t involve left tackle J’Marcus Webb. The Bears have benched left guard Chris Spencer and replaced him with Chilo Rachel. Spencer has surrendered 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures in 2 games, while being penalized once, so he’s obviously part of the problem. Rachal should be an upgrade. Before an injury plagued 2011 season, Rachal was ProFootballFocus’ 9th rated guard in 2010 in San Francisco. Still just 26, the former 2nd round pick is back in shape and healthy again and should help on their offensive line. It’s tough to imagine him solving all of their problems though.

This week, the Bears take on the Rams. There’s some value with them at just -7.5. They were -10.5 last week and I think there’s been too much of an overreaction to that one game, especially since St. Louis is a publicly favored underdog right now. Jay Cutler takes a shit like that once or twice a year and it never really means anything. Plus, they were totally overmatched as underdogs on Thursday Night Football (teams in that situation are 24-46 ATS). Cutler should bounce back (though I can’t say the same for this offensive line) and Michael Bush was signed for this purpose so he should be able to carry the load in Forte’s absence. However, the Rams are still an underrated team who has played much better this year than last year. This is a tough call this week.

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Giants’ Andre Brown has earned a time share with Ahmad Bradshaw?

stevenlourie Giants, News

Andre Brown is having a nice week or so. On Sunday, Ahmad Bradshaw went down with an injury midgame against the Giants and because Tim Coughlin didn’t trust 1st round rookie David Wilson because of ball security and pass protection issues, he put the more veteran Andre Brown in the game. Brown impressed, rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries and he earned the start on Thursday Night Football with Bradshaw being ruled out on a short week.

Brown impressed even more last night, rushing for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 carries. Brown’s two starts have come against bad defenses, but there’s no way that you could have watched his two performances and not come away impressed, especially given his history. The powerful 227 pound back has been cut 7 times in his NFL career after being a 4th round pick in 2009 out of NC State by the Giants. He’s dealt with an Achilles tear and a ton of adversity, but now he’s burst onto the scene and it appears he might be here to stay. Bradshaw is expected back next week, but Brown could have earned a time share with him. He’s the power back compliment to Bradshaw that they were previously lacking with Brandon Jacobs going to San Francisco.

People who picked Andre Brown up for the week for a spot start should not cut him even when Bradshaw returns and if he’s still available in your league, go grab him. It’s entirely possible that Brown earns a weekly role, especially around the goal line, and Bradshaw’s injury history is noted. Bradshaw owners, meanwhile, should considering trying to trade Bradshaw now for a more consistent starter if you can get one, because a time share will make Bradshaw no longer worth a weekly start. David Wilson owners, meanwhile, should just cut him. Tom Coughlin doesn’t trust rookies and he’s well behind both Brown and Bradshaw now. He may still have some value in leagues that don’t redraft, but don’t expect much of any impact from him this season. Even with Bradshaw out, he saw just 3 touches against Carolina.

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Falcons’ Michael Turner arrested for DUI

stevenlourie Falcons, News

The Falcons are having a great start to the season, winning both of their games, but Michael Turner’s season isn’t going so well. The Falcons have been winning largely in spite of running back Michael Turner, who has carried the ball 28 times for 74 yards and a touchdown in 2 games. He’s never been good as a pass catcher and has caught just 1 pass for 0 yards and now he’s not even good in the same short yardage situation he used to excel in, taking 3 tries to punch it in from the 1 against Denver last week. The people who said the 30 year old was done appear to be winning that argument so far.

Just when it looked like things couldn’t get worse for Turner, he was arrested for DUI immediately following the Falcons’ win on Monday Night Football over the Broncos. This is Turner’s first offense and he will not be suspended, but it looks really bad when a starting running back gets arrested immediately following a big win, especially on that he didn’t play particularly well in. It’s unclear if this arrest, as well as his recent struggles, will lead to a reduced role for him, but it should. The Falcons spent the offseason taking up backup Jacquizz Rodgers, a 2011 5th round pick, but have given him just 12 touches to Turner’s 29 in 2 games. He deserves to be given a larger role going forward and we’ll see if he gets it this week in San Diego. He’s worth a bench stash in fantasy leagues for the time being, especially for Turner owners.

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Buccaneers bench Jeremy Trueblood

stevenlourie Buccaneers, News

Jeremy Trueblood was one of the worst starting tackles in the league in 2010, surrendering 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback hurries, while committing 4 penalties in 8 starts. He was benched down the stretch for James Lee, but resigned for starter’s money as a free agent in the 2011 offseason, signing a 2 year, 10 million dollar deal. Trueblood was even worse in 2011, starting 15 games, allowing 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 50 quarterback hurries (most in the league), while committing 7 penalties. This past offseason, he was forced to take a pay cut to stay on the roster, to 4.25 million from 5.25 million, but he was still being paid like a starter.

He started the opener and surrendered a quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries and then missed last week with an ankle problem. Now it appears he will continue to not start as he’s been benched permanently for Demar Dotson, who started in his absence last week. Dotson allowed just 1 quarterback hurry in that start, but he’s still inexperienced and went undrafted in 2009, so it’s unclear if he’ll continue to be the answer for the Buccaneers. If not, the Buccaneers could definitely turn to the draft to find a new starting right tackle, with Trueblood being a free agent this offseason and Dotson being owed a non-guaranteed 1.5 million in 2013.

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Patriots sign Kellen Winslow, bring back Deion Branch

stevenlourie News, Patriots

The Patriots suffered a major loss to one of their top receivers last week as tight end Aaron Hernandez suffered a high ankle sprain that is expected to keep him out 4-6 weeks. Losing Hernandez forced the Patriots to scrap their game plan very early in the game and it was definitely one of the reason why the Patriots suffered a major upset loss at home at the hands of the Cardinals. Without Hernandez, the Patriots had to go from being a two-tight end base team to a three-wide receiver base team because, for as many tight ends as they have on their roster, they didn’t have another one who could function as the move tight end like Hernandez did.

This week, the Patriots have signed Kellen Winslow to be that move tight end. Winslow is a poor blocker and he’s obviously not on the level as Hernandez as a pass catcher, but he’s closer to Hernandez than anyone they have. He’s exceeded 730 receiving yards in all 5 seasons as a pro in which he’s played all 16 games, despite never having the best group of quarterback throwing to him, and he’s played in all 16 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons. However, long term durability issues led to the 29 year old being traded by the Buccaneers to the Seahawks for a mere 7th round pick and then Seattle cutting him as part of final cuts. Still, he’s got some talent as a pass catcher and he will allow the Patriots to use more two-tight end looks this week than they did last week.

However, they will still be unable to feature the two-tight end look, which means we’re going to be seeing a lot more three-wide receiver looks than normal. Because of that, the Patriots have brought back a familiar face, signing wide receiver Deion Branch, who was cut in final cuts. In three-wide receiver sets, the Patriots will use Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Julian Edelman, who has always played well when needed.

However, they really lacked depth behind those 2 as Matt Slater is primarily on the roster for his special teams value and 2011 4th round pick Greg Salas, acquired from St. Louis for a late round pick before the season started, is apparently not game ready as they cut him and added him to the practice squad in favor of signing Branch to the active roster. He doesn’t have a whole lot left in the tank, but he’s knows the playbook like the back of his hand and he has the kind of chemistry with Tom Brady where they could complete passes with their eyes closed.

Obviously, Hernandez’s loss hurts, but no team adapts better than the Patriots do. In 2010, they traded Randy Moss, then a key of their offense, and went to more two-tight end looks with two rookie tight ends by the name of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This week, they’re just doing the opposite. They did a poor job of adapting mid game last week, which is part of why they lost, but no one adapts better on a week to week basis than Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

Given that and given Tom Brady’s history when people are doubting him (In his career off a loss, he’s 28-8 SU, 24-12 ATS, off an upset loss he’s 17-4 SU, 15-6 ATS, as an underdog he’s 24-16 SU, 27-12 ATS (13-4 ATS since 2003), as an underdog off a loss he’s 11-1 SU, 11-1 ATS, and as an underdog off an upset loss 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS), I really like the Patriots to win this week. They’re being undervalued off of last week’s loss and probably are actually more likely to win after their loss last week, given their history. On top of that, the Ravens are a bit overrated. Clearly missing Terrell Suggs and other offseason losses, the Ravens have given an uncharacteristic 808 yards in 2 games, 27th in the league, and Joe Flacco had a poor showing last week after a “breakout” week 1 performance.

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Browns’ bench two in secondary

stevenlourie Browns, News

Through 2 games, Cleveland has surrendered the 7th most passing yards in the league. With Joe Haden suspended for 3 more games, that figures to only get worse. Without Haden last week, the Browns surrendered 24 completions for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns on 31 attempts, while picking off one pass, against Andy Dalton and the Bengals, who were fresh off an embarrassing offensive performance in Baltimore, in which Dalton completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and an interception.

Seeing the secondary as a weakness, the Browns have decided to take some action and have benched two starters. Starting cornerback Sheldon Brown was benched for Buster Skrine, while starting free safety Eric Hagg was benched for Usama Young this week. Brown is 33 years old and probably at the end of his line. This demotion, even with Haden out, suggests that he’ll be no higher than 4th when Haden returns, barring injuries. In his first NFL start, Skrine, a 2011 6th round pick, was horrendous, allowing 8 completions for 89 yards on 9 attempts last week, in place of an injured Brown. Still, the Browns decided to keep him in the starting lineup permanently. However, if he continues to play like this, he’ll be benched when Joe Haden returns, in favor of keeping the veteran Dmitri Patterson in the starting lineup.

Whereas Brown being benched for Skrine was a case of a veteran being benched for a youngster, Hagg being benched for Young was a case of a struggling youngster being benched for what they hope will be a stabilizing veteran presence. Hagg, a 2011 7th round pick, has not been thrown on much, but has struggled on those occasions, allowing 2 completions for 54 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts. He’s also struggled against the run, recording just 5 total tackles, missing one, and having 2 stops. Young, a 2007 5th round pick, has yet to play a snap this season and was almost cut from an undrafted free agent as part of final cuts. Like Skrine, he does not figure to be much of an upgrade. The Browns’ defense figures to continue to be one that is very kind to opposite fantasy players, especially while Haden remains out. This week, they face the Bills.

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Could Patriots trade Wes Welker?

stevenlourie News, Patriots

There has been some buzz this week that the Patriots could potentially trade Wes Welker. Welker, after having a poor showing in the opener, catching just 3 passes for 14 yards, did not start week 2 against the Cardinals and only saw the field in 3-wide receiver sets for the most part. An Aaron Hernandez injury left them using lots of 3-wide receiver sets, with Welker alongside Julian Edelman, who got the start, and Brandon Lloyd, another starter, allowing Welker to catch 5 passes for 95 yards. However, there is some speculation that Belichick might have been using the game against the previously lowly Cardinals as an opportunity to see what his offense would look like with Julian Edelman in Wes Welker’s role.

This certainly would not have been the most surprising thing Bill Belichick has ever done, as he’s cut Lawyer Milloy in his prime, trading Randy Moss midseason, and traded Richard Seymour right before the start of the season. It would also make some sense. Welker is in the final year of his contract and will be 32 next offseason and there’s a general sense that he won’t be back with the Patriots unless he takes less money than his production would suggest he’s owed. The Patriots have always been a team over player organization and probably feel that Welker, who was a mere average slot receiver before joining the Patriots, needs them more than they need him.

It would be weird for a Super Bowl contender to trade a big piece of their team mid season, but if the Patriots had concluded that Edelman, a similar style player, would be a suitable substitute, it would make sense for them to move him for the right price. I’ve said on numerous occasions this offseason that the Patriots moving Welker midseason would not shock me and the events of the last 2 weeks would seem to back that up.

Hernandez’s injury throws a wrench in the plan a little bit because without him, they need all 3 of their wide receivers. However, the trade deadline has been moved to later in October this year and there’s a good chance that Hernandez (who was given a 4-6 timetable for recovery) is back before that. If Edelman can prove himself in Hernandez’s absence, the Patriots might see Welker as unnecessary and go forward with Rob Gronkowski, Hernandez, Lloyd, and Edelman as their top 4 receivers.

The question is what they could get in return for him. Teams always get suspicious when other teams try to sell “star” players and automatically assume there’s something wrong with him, especially when it’s the Patriots how are trying to sell, given their history of winning deals. On top of that Welker would just be a half season rental. The Patriots got a 3rd rounder for Randy Moss in 2010 and that might be all they would get in return for him this year. It might take a 2nd rounder though for the Patriots to pull the trigger.

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Vikings to be without Erin Henderson this week

stevenlourie News, Vikings

When the Vikings face the 49ers this week, they will be without one of their best defensive players. Linebacker Erin Henderson, my pick for the Vikings’ breakout player of the year before the season, has been every bit as good as I expected he would now that he’s an every down linebacker. ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, Henderson has 19 solo tackles, 3 assists, 14 stops and has only missed two. In coverage, he’s allowed 9 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts, and he’s impressed as a blitzer too, with 2 sacks and a quarterback hit on 12 blitzes. He’s also been penalized once. However, after sustaining a concussion the Vikings have ruled him out for this week.

This puts the Vikings at even more of a disadvantage on paper, but they should still be able to give the 49ers a good game. Christian Ponder seems to be the only 2nd year quarterback who is actually improved over his rookie year, completing 47 of 62 for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns through 2 games, including 12 of 20 on throws that go longer than 10 yards through the air, which was an issue for him as a rookie (44 of 108). The coaching staff is using Percy Harvin properly this year and he’s become a legitimate #1 receiver and his offensive line is much improved over last year. Remember, last year, in the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league.

The 49ers, meanwhile, could be in a breather game situation, coming off two huge wins and having finally been anointed the best team in the league, with another tough test in New York against the Jets next week. The Vikings have the talent to take advantage of that. In terms of points per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one that I think best predicts future success, the Vikings rank 5th through 2 games, while the 49ers stand at 8th. Obviously, schedule has a lot to do with that as the 49ers have faced two playoff teams from 2011 and the Vikings have faced the Jaguars and Colts, but the Vikings are still better than they’re being given credit for. As 7.5 point underdogs, expect them to be able to cover at home.

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Colts rule Dwight Freeney out, Austin Collie doubtful

stevenlourie Colts, News

Dwight Freeney left last week’s game against the Bears with an ankle injury and even though Head Coach Chuck Pagano said earlier this week that they expected him back “sooner as opposed to later,” he is currently listed as out for this week’s game against the Vikings and Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star says that it will probably be a “couple of weeks” according to what he’s “hearing.” In his absence, 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes had a pair of quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps. He’ll get the start again this week.

Meanwhile, Austin Collie is unlikely to go, even though there was a lot of optimism with his situation earlier in the week. Collie reportedly felt great before last week’s game, but they held him out as a precaution. He practiced fully on Wednesday, but it sounds like he had a setback on Thursday or something. Still, even after Thursday, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians made it sound like he’d be ready to go, saying “He could line up anywhere. He has the position flexibility to do anything. He would start out wide and go from there.” However, they eventually listed him as doubtful.

Between this and Freeney’s situation, it’s becoming increasingly tough to trust the Colts’ new coaching staff’s word on injuries. The official injury report seems to be the only thing that’s reliable. In Collie’s absence, Donnie Avery will start again, while Kris Adams will once again line up in the slot. Avery caught 3 passes for 37 yards and a touchdown in the opener, while Adams caught 2 passes for 26 yards. Don’t trust any Colts receiver in fantasy aside from Wayne until Collie returns. For now, assume Collie is out week 3 and indefinitely until you hear otherwise.

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