NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)

The Saints have won both games started by Teddy Bridgewater, but they can’t get Drew Brees back quickly enough, as their offense has completely sputtered in his absence, even as much talent as they have on offense around the quarterback. In 27 drives since taking over for Brees, Bridgewater has led the Saints to just 46 first downs and 3 touchdowns on 160 plays, a 30.63% first down rate, which would be the 4th worst in the NFL. By comparison, the Saints had a 43.17% first down rate in 2018. 

As a result, the Saints have actually lost the first down battle in both games started by Bridgewater, winning the two games by just a combined 8 points, despite a +2 turnover margin and a +2 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On the season, they rank just 27th in first down rate at -4.24% and that includes 12 drives where Drew Brees was under center. Their defense gets a boost with stud defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins returning from injury, even if he might not be 100% immediately, but their offense should remain a concern until Brees returns. 

Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Buccaneers, the Saints’ opponent this week, as this line has shifted from New Orleans -6.5 to New Orleans -3, even though the Saints pulled the upset win at home over the Cowboys last week. That’s because the Buccaneers pulled the upset in Los Angeles last week against the Rams, but I’m not as impressed by that as most, for three reasons. 

For one, the Rams were an overrated team that could have been 1-2 instead of 3-0 if their first opponents (Panthers and Saints) had healthy quarterbacks. Two, the Rams were in a tough spot, with a key divisional game against the Seahawks on deck on Thursday Night Football. Three, the Buccaneers actually lost the first down rate battle in that game by 4.18%, despite winning by 15. They won the turnover margin by 3, but that tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis.

Ranking 16th on the season in first down rate at +0.77%, the Buccaneers seem to be improved on both sides of the ball with new head coach Bruce Arians and his staff, but they might be a little overrated after last week’s win. The Saints may be overrated too because winning has diverted attention from how much their offense has slowed, but I still have this line calculated at New Orleans -3.5, as they still have a lot of talent around the quarterback, especially on defense. There’s not nearly enough here to bet the Saints with confidence, but they seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

New Orleans Saints 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

This line is pretty high at Philadelphia -14, but I don’t think it’s high enough. In their last game, the Jets were 21-point underdogs at New England and only covered because they got two late return touchdowns off of a muffed punt and a pick six thrown by backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham when Tom Brady was taken out of the game with the game in hand. The Eagles aren’t the Patriots, but I have them third in my roster rankings, so they’re not far behind. They’re only 2-2, but both of their losses were close and they won the first down rate battle in one of them. 

The Jets had their bye last week, but it didn’t help them get healthier, as they will remain without starting quarterback Sam Darnold, top offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele, top linebacker CJ Mosley, and top edge defender Jordan Jenkins, with only defensive lineman Quinnen Williams able to get healthy over the bye. The Eagles are also coming off of a mini bye as well, with their last game coming on Thursday Night Football against the Packers. I have them calculated as 18-point favorites against a depleted Jets team that is starting a third string quarterback.

The only thing preventing me from betting on the Eagles is that they’re not in a great spot, with a much tougher game in Minnesota on deck. The Eagles are 3-point underdogs in that game on the early line and favorites of 10+ are just 63-84 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs, including just 14-28 ATS as favorites of 13+ points. They can still cover this spread even if they don’t play their best game though.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 New York Jets 10

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -14

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (4-0) at Washington Redskins (0-4)

Ordinarily, the Redskins would be in a great spot to bet on this week. While the Patriots have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, the Redskins have the easiest game of their season on deck, a trip to Miami for a game against the Dolphins in which they are currently favored by 6 points. While favorites are 57-78 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football, home underdogs are 42-20 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites. Based on historical trends, the Redskins are much more likely to be fully focused for this game.

However, the Redskins also have a likely lame duck head coach in Jay Gruden and an uncertain situation at quarterback, with long-time backup Colt McCoy getting the nod this week over a banged up Case Keenum and first round rookie Dwayne Haskins, who was disastrous in relief of Keenum in his NFL debut last week. They might not play their best game given those circumstances and even if they do it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Patriots still win by 20, even if the Patriots don’t play their best game. The talent gap between these two teams is just that big, especially with the Redskins continuing to be without top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff due to injury. 

Also, the Patriots play the Giants next week, so it’s not like they have a big look ahead game, even if it’s on Thursday. Double digit favorites are 45-31 ATS before being double digit favorites again since 2002, and, though they are just 2-4 ATS before Thursday Night Football, that’s still worth noting. The Redskins seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes, but it would be hard to bet on them this week, even as 16-point home underdogs.

New England Patriots 27 Washington Redskins 13

Pick against the spread: Washington +16

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)

These two teams are in very similar quarterback situations. Both have lost their starting quarterback indefinitely and have turned to a non-highly drafted backup that has thus far greatly exceeded expectations. The Jaguars are starting sixth round rookie Gardner Minshew, who has completed 69.4% of his passes for an average of 7.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception since taking over for Nick Foles in the first half of the Jaguars’ first game of the season, while the Panthers have turned to 2018 undrafted free agent Kyle Allen, who has won all 3 career starts while completing 69.2% of his passes for an average of 8.34 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Both quarterbacks are still pretty unproven and might not continue their high level of play, but it’s hard to say one quarterback is more likely to do so than another, so the quarterback position is essentially a wash between these two teams.

Where the Panthers have the edge is the rest of the team, as they rank 10th in first down rate differential at +2.66%, while the Jaguars rank 23rd at -1.95%. Despite that, this line suggests these two teams are about even with the Panthers only being favored by a field goal at home, so we’re getting significant line value with the Panthers. The Panthers nearly won their first 2 games despite Cam Newton playing at far less than 100% and could easily be a 4-0 team right now if they had gotten competent quarterback play all year. 

I wish the Panthers had a more favorable injury report though, because they’ll be without a pair of starters on the offensive line (left tackle Greg Little and right guard Trai Turner), starting cornerback Donte Jackson, and possibly defensive lineman Gerald McCoy, who didn’t practice on Friday. Despite those injuries, I still have this line calculated at Carolina -6, so the Panthers are still worth a bet. If McCoy ends up playing and this line doesn’t change, I may increase this to a high confidence pick.

Sunday Update: McCoy is expected to play, while the Jaguars will be without both Jalen Ramsey and his replacement DJ Hayden. Despite that, this line is still at 3, so I am increasing this to a high confidence pick.

Carolina Panthers 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: High

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)

The Ravens got off to a 2-0 start against still winless teams like the Dolphins and Cardinals, but have fallen back to earth against tougher competition, losing in Kansas City in a game in which they trailed by double digits for most of the game and then losing at home to Cleveland by 15 last week. Their offense is better this year than last year, with Lamar Jackson making a second year leap, but their defense lost five 2018 starters in the off-season and then another two due to injury early in the season. 

A year after finishing 2nd in points per game allowed with 17.9, the Ravens have now allowed a total of 73 points in the past 2 weeks. Last year, they allowed 32 defensive touchdowns. So far, they are on pace they allow 44 defensive backs. This week they get back defensive lineman Brandon Williams, who missed the Cleveland game, which should help, but this is nowhere near the defense it once was.

The general public doesn’t seem to realize the Ravens don’t have a good defense anymore, as the Ravens still seem to be overvalued, favored by 3.5 points on the road in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season with an elbow injury, but they have a solid roster around the quarterback and backup Mason Rudolph has shown some flashes. Even including their week 1 blowout loss in New England, the Steelers have just an average margin of just -3 points per game, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see them play the Ravens close or even pull the upset in Pittsburgh. 

Their best game of the season did come against a banged up Bengals team, last week on Monday Night Football, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they carried that momentum into this week, as teams are 85-56 ATS since 1989 after a Monday Night Football win of 17+ points. I have this line calculated at even and, with a strong situational trend on their side, the Steelers could easily win this game outright. With about 1 in 4 games decided by a field goal or less, we’re getting a good cushion in case the Steelers can’t pull the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Houston Texans (2-2)

The Falcons are just 1-3, but they should be better than that going forward. They have tied for the second worst turnover margin in the NFL at -5, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Matt Ryan, who has a career 2.18% interception rate on 6,377 attempts, is unlikely to continue throwing interceptions at a 3.41% rate going forward and the Falcons should recover more than 22.22% of available fumbles going forward as well. Their defense is a serious concern, ranking 29th in first down rate allowed at 40.57%, but their offense has moved the ball effectively, ranking 5th in first down rate at 40.47%, even with left tackle Jake Matthews getting off to a slow start to the season. 

The Texans are a solid team, but I have these teams about even in my roster rankings, suggesting the Texans should only be favored by 3. This line is Houston -4, which might not seem like a big difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided exactly a field goal and about 1 in 4 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Even if the Falcons can’t pull off the upset, we’re getting a good cushion at +4.

The Falcons are also in a much better spot. While the Texans have to worry about going to Kansas City next week, the Falcons only have a trip to Arizona on deck. Underdogs are 101-57 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. At 1-3, the Falcons should be fully focused to try to save their season, while the Texans could be looking ahead to a much bigger conference game. The Falcons could easily pull the upset and have a great chance to cover.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Houston Texans 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

It’s not unusual for favored teams to struggle the week before Thursday Night Football, as favorites cover the spread only at about a 43.6% rate all-time in that situation. The Seahawks took care of business last week in Arizona, winning by 17 as 5-point favorites, by far their biggest win of the season after their first two came by a combined 3 points. However, the Rams fell flat, losing at home to the Buccaneers by 15 as 9-point favorites. 

It’s not entirely surprising the Rams lost that game though, even aside from it being before a short week. The Buccaneers have shown signs of being a much improved football team under Bruce Arians and the new coaching staff, while the Rams had not been terribly impressive during their 3-0 start, winning week 1 by 3 against a banged up Cam Newton in a game in which the Rams recovered all 4 fumbles, winning by week 2 against a Saints team that lost Drew Brees to injury in the first quarter, and then winning by a touchdown in Cleveland in a game the Browns had a chance to tie at the end. 

What is surprising is how the Rams lost. Their offense was the concerning unit through the first 3 weeks of the season for the Rams, slowed by an offensive line that did not look nearly the same without the two starters they lost this off-season, while their defense actually ranked 5th in first down rate allowed through 3 games at 31.52%, led by Aaron Donald and a now healthy cornerback duo of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, ranked 4th in first down rate allowed through 3 weeks at 30.73%, with an upstart young defense coordinated by Todd Bowles and led by breakout star Vita Bea, but got inconsistent play from quarterback Jameis Winston and the offense. Somehow, despite both teams playing strong defense through the first 3 weeks of the season and having shaky offenses, the Rams and Buccaneers combined for 95 points in a 55-40 Rams loss. 

It’s hard to know what to make of that game, especially since the Rams were likely not playing their best game before the short week. It’s also tough to predict how teams will respond on a short week. On top of that, I have this calculated line at Seattle -1, which means we’re not getting any real line value either way with this line being at Seattle -1.5. For those three reasons, this is going to be one of my lowest confidence picks of the week, but I’d take the Rams if I had to, for the half point of “line value.” Both teams have been shaky in their 3-1 starts, but the Rams still have the more complete roster.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1)

Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movement as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play and the line in this game has shifted from Chicago -3 to Chicago -1 in the past week, a significant shift considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by 3 points exactly. However, my calculated line is Chicago -1, so I think it’s a justifiable shift. The Bears won by 16 in Washington last week, but it came against a weak Redskins team and they only won the first down rate battle by 1.67%, building a big lead due to a +4 turnover margin and 5 takeaways, which tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. 

In week 2, the Bears barely won in Denver against an underwhelming Broncos team in a game in which they lost the first down rate battle by 2.91%. In the past two weeks, they’ve faced two of the worst offenses in the league and have allowed a 38.19% first down rate, so I’m concerned they’re not the same defense they were last season when they led the league with a 30.38% first down rate allowed. They lost a couple key players in the secondary in free agency, slot cornerback Bryce Callahan and safety Adrian Amos, who were among the best players in the league at their respective positions in 2018. 

Their defense could bounce back now that they are back at home, but they also could be without defensive end Akiem Hicks this week, as he’s listed questionable, but did not practice all week. Behind Khalil Mack, he might be their second best defensive player, so his absence would be a big deal. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky seems to be regressing under center, so the Bears need their defense more than ever this week in a huge divisional game against a solid Vikings team. This is going to be a no confidence pick either way, but I’m going to make this pick dependant on whether or not Hicks plays. If he does not, I’ll switch to the Vikings.

Update: Akiem Hicks is reportedly unlikely to play, so I am switching this pick.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Chicago Bears 19

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +1

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

The Falcons have gotten off to a disappointing 1-2 start, winning a big home game against the Eagles week 2, but also losing on the road in Minnesota and Indianapolis. They’ve been better than their record has suggested though, ranking 11th in first down rate differential at +2.97%. The biggest problem for them is they have the third worst turnover margin in the league at -4, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Matt Ryan, who has a career 2.20% interception rate over 6,324 pass attempts, is not going to continue throwing interceptions at a 6.74% rate the rest of the way.

The bigger concern for the Falcons is the loss of safety Keanu Neal for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. Neal was not playing well, coming off of a torn ACL that ended his 2018 season, but projections that had the Falcons being improved in 2019 included the Falcons having better health on defense and the return to form of Neal, who missed 15 games with injury last season, was supposed to be a big part of that. Without Neal, I have the Falcons slightly above the Titans in my roster rankings, so this line favoring the Falcons by 3.5 points at home seems about right. I’m taking the Falcons for pick ‘em purposes and hoping they will play more like they did against the Eagles now that they are back at home, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Tennessee Titans 21

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3.5

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3)

When the NFL scheduled this game on Monday Night Football, they probably thought they’d be getting a competitive early season matchup between two hated division rivals. Instead, they got the second Monday Night Football game in the past thirty years between a pair of teams that are 0-3 or worse. The other instance was a 9-7 victory by the 0-4 Cowboys over the 0-4 Redskins in week 5 of 2001. Both of these teams came into the season with expectations, but have been ravaged by injury. 

For the Bengals, the sheer amount of key players they are missing this early in the season is pretty incredible. They came into the season with major injury concerns, losing first round pick Jonah Williams for the season in June, losing long-time starting guard Clint Boling to an early retirement due to injury, and losing top wide receiver AJ Green, starting cornerback Darqueze Dennard, and top offensive lineman Cordy Glenn indefinitely with injuries suffered in training camp, and things have just gotten worse from there. In addition to the aforementioned players, the Bengals will also be without a pair of key rotational defensive linemen, defensive end Carl Lawson and defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow, who also missed last week loss in Buffalo.

The Steelers don’t have the sheer number of missing key players that the Bengals have, but they have the most impactful injury between these two teams, with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger out for the season. The Steelers are publicly confident in backup quarterback Mason Rudolph, who was a third round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, but he hasn’t shown much to be confident in thus far, averaging just 6.22 yards per attempt and leading the Steelers to just 19 first downs and 4 touchdowns on 79 snaps on 18 drives, a first down rate of just 29.11%. For comparison, the Steelers had a 40.55% first down rate last season. The Steelers almost won their first game with Rudolph as the starter in San Francisco last week, but they ultimately lost, despite winning the turnover battle by 3. In terms of first down rate, they were -14.24% and that tends to be much more consistent week-to-week than turnover margin. 

Starting caliber quarterbacks rarely fall to the third round, so it’s not exactly a surprise that Rudolph has looked like a backup caliber player, especially this early in his career. As much as the Bengals are missing, they at least have a competent quarterback under center. The Steelers will also be without starting tight end Vance McDonald, rotational edge rusher Anthony Chickillo, and situational middle linebacker Vince Williams.

Despite that, I still have the Steelers as the slightly better team in my roster rankings, as they still have a pretty strong roster around the quarterback. This line, which favors the hometown Steelers by 3.5 points, is about right, so we aren’t getting much line value in either direction. The Bengals are my pick because they are in a better spot, hosting the Cardinals next week in a game in which they will likely be favored, while the Steelers host the Ravens in a game in which they will likely be underdogs. Underdogs are 100-56 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs and even at 0-3 it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Steelers get caught looking forward to a bigger divisional game next week. They’re facing a fellow winless team and this could be a bit of a sandwich game between a close loss on the road and a big divisional home game. It’s not enough to bet the Bengals in the shape they are in, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: Low