NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-0)

This is a battle between a pair of 3-0 teams in the AFC East, but these two teams have had very different paths to 3-0. While the Patriots have dominated everyone they’ve faced, leading the league with a +21.55% first down rate differential and a +29.7 average point differential, the Bills trailed in the second half against the Jets and Bengals before coming back to narrowly win. Neither team has faced a tough schedule, with the Bills also facing the Giants and the Patriots facing the Steelers, Dolphins, and Jets, but the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger is the only thing close to a tough opponent that either of these teams have faced and the Patriots dominated them in a 30-point victory. They’ve had a much more impressive start despite these two teams having the same record.

The Patriots’ defense has been especially impressive, not allowing a single touchdown all season and allowing just 32 first downs on 169 snaps, an absurd 18.93% first down rate allowed. I don’t care who you play, these are all professional football players and having a 3-game stretch like that against anyone is worth taking note of. The Patriots’ defensive dominance goes back to the end of last season, when they held the Rams without a touchdown in the Super Bowl, blanked the Chiefs in the first half of the AFC Championship game before a second half offensive explosion, held the Chargers to just one touchdown in the first half of the AFC Divisional before allowing some garbage time points, and held the Jets, Steelers, Bills to a combined 32 points in the final 3 games of the regular season. 

Dating back 9 games, the Patriots have allowed just 3 first half touchdowns and have allowed more than one offensive touchdown total in just 3 of 9 games, with 5 games in which they did not allow an offensive touchdown, including 4 straight. Going back to last year’s bye, they have allowed just 14.0 points per game in their past 12 games. At this point, this is not a fluke. Bill Belichick has somehow quietly built a very deep and versatile defense and has them firing on all cylinders as his own defensive coordinator. Off-season additions of Jamie Collins, Chase Winovich, and Michael Bennett have been key, as have the re-emergence of veteran stars Dont’a Hightower and Devin McCourty and the emergence of budding young shutdown cornerback Jonathan Jones. The Patriots’ probably are not going to allow a first down rate under 20% the rest of the way as their schedule gets tougher, but they should finish among the top few teams in the league in most defensive metrics. 

There’s some concern that the Patriots weren’t a good road team last year, going just 3-5 on the road, with losses to teams like Jaguars, Lions, and Dolphins, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. Home/road splits tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, with rare exceptions. In fact, the Patriots recently had a stretch from 2016 to 2017 where they won 14 consecutive games away from Gillette, before their road struggles last year. The pendulum could easily swing back the other way this season.

Unfortunately, we aren’t really getting much line value with the Patriots as 7-point favorites on the road in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t been nearly as impressive as the Patriots, but they have a solid team that should still compete for a wild card spot in the AFC and they could easily bring their best effort at home in a huge divisional matchup. The Bills have had a legitimately good defense since the start of last season, finishing last season 7th in first down rate allowed at 34.30% in 2018 and now ranking 6th at 31.75% in first down rate allowed through 3 games. Their offense struggled for most of last year, but it improved significantly down the stretch, with a 37.14% first down rate in their final 7 games of the season, after a 25.85% first down rate in their first 9 games, and that seems to have carried over into this season, as they rank 9th in first down rate at 39.41% thus far. Their competition is about to get a whole lot harder and I have them calculated as 9-point underdogs, but there isn’t quite enough to bet the Patriots with confidence this week.

New England Patriots 23 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-3)

Typically, betting teams off of back-to-back blowout losses is a smart move, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. Since 2002, teams are 49-34 ATS off of back-to-back losses of 21+. That applies to the Dolphins this week, but that doesn’t mean they are a good bet. That applied last week as well, after back-to-back losses by 40+ in the first two weeks of the season, and the Dolphins couldn’t manage to cover as 23-point underdogs. 

Through three games, the Dolphins have an average point differential of -39.0 points per game, worst in a three game stretch in at least 30 years, and they have a ridiculous -26.46% first down rate, allowing opponents to pick up a first down or touchdown on 49.76% of snaps, while only doing so on 23.30% of their offensive snaps. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they managed to win a game at some point, but this team is arguably worse than both the winless Lions in 2008 and the winless Browns in 2017 even if they do win at some point. 

Neither the winless Browns nor winless Lions ever lost by 40+ and the winless Browns never lost by more than 24, but the Dolphins have already lost twice by 40+ and have lost all three games by 25+ points. The few good players that the Dolphins do have don’t seem to be trying hard because the coaching staff and front office transparently don’t care about winning this season, leading to a historically bad on the field performance. They’re unlikely to be a good bet all season.

That being said, I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Chargers either as 14.5-point road favorites. Incredibly banged up, the Chargers seem to be using this game as an opportunity to rest injured players and could be without a bunch of key players on both sides of the ball. Already without stud safety Derwin James, his replacement Adrian Phillips, top offensive lineman Russell Okung, and talented tight end Hunter Henry, the Chargers are also expected to be without starting wide receiver Mike Williams, #3 wide receiver Travis Benjamin, new starting tight end Virgil Green, and possibly top cornerback Casey Hayward, who only got in a limited practice on Friday. 

Even with all of their injuries, the Chargers still have enough talent to blow out the Dolphins, but this could be closer than the Dolphins’ other games because the Chargers are at far less than 100%. The Chargers could also take their foot off the gas in the second half if they have a big lead, which is always a risk when picking a heavy road favorite. I would take them if I had to pick a side, but this is a no confidence pick. 

Los Angeles Chargers 28 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -14.5

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

Probably the most surprising stat from this early season is the Buccaneers ranking 4th in first down rate allowed at 30.73%, after finishing 30th at 40.98% last season. The Buccaneers made changes on defense this off-season, but didn’t add any marquee players. They made a lateral move at the defensive tackle position, cutting Gerald McCoy to sign Ndamukong Suh in a cost saving measure. They signed underrated ex-Bronco Shaq Barrett to help their edge rush, but also lost their top pass rusher from a year ago Jason Pierre-Paul to an off-season injury. They used the 5th overall pick on middle linebacker Devin White, but he’s barely played due to injury. Barrett has exceeded expectations, but mostly it’s been young holdovers exceeding expectations so far, in large part due to the addition of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Last year’s first round pick Vita Vea has especially broken out, but their young secondary has been better than expected as well. 

Despite that, they are still just 1-2 and it’s fair to question whether their defense can keep it up and definitely fair to question their competition thus far. In week 1, they faced the 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo was rusty in his first back, having the 6th worst completion percentage above expected of the week, at -5.4%. In week 2, they faced a severely injured Cam Newton, who had the 4th worst completion percentage above expected the week, at -11.7%. Last week, they faced a Giants team that was starting a rookie quarterback and that was without Saquon Barkley and surrendered over 30 points. The Rams are an obvious step up in talent. 

That being said, the Rams haven’t been quite as impressive on offense this year as they have been the past two years, in large part due to their offensive line. They will get right guard Austin Blythe back after he missed last week with injury, but they lost left guard Rodger Saffold and center John Sullivan in the off-season and second year replacements Joe Noteboom and Brian Allen have not been impressive. 

Their defense has been better this season, but their offense ranks just 17th in first down rate and they are lucky to be 3-0, recovering all 4 fumbles in a 3-point win over an injured Cam Newton and the Panthers week 1, then facing a Saints team week 2 that lost Drew Brees in the first quarter, and then last week they narrowly escaped against a Browns team that was missing eight week 1 starters due to injury, including four in the secondary. They have relatively easy competition this week, but they are in a tough spot with a much bigger game in Seattle on deck in 4 days. Favorites are 56-77 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football and the Buccaneers could definitely cover this 9-point spread if the Rams don’t play their best game.  There’s not enough here to bet on the Buccaneers, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +9

Confidence: Low

Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (0-3) at New York Giants (1-2)

I was hoping to be able to fade the Daniel Jones hype this week, as I felt the loss of running back Saquon Barkley was important to the Giants’ chances of winning going forward than Jones having a strong debut against an underwhelming Buccaneers defense. Even as well as Jones played, the Giants still had a middle of the road 35.00% first down rate and would have lost the game if the Buccaneers could have hit a very makeable field goal at the end. Without Barkley for the near future and with one of the worst defenses in the league supporting him, Jones will be relied upon heavily for a rookie and he doesn’t get wide receiver Golden Tate back until next week. 

This line didn’t move significantly from the early line last week though, going from New York -2.5 to -3, so we aren’t getting any line value with the Redskins, who will be without starting center Chase Rouiller and right guard Brandon Scherff, the latter of whom is their best offensive lineman, and possibly top wide receiver Terry McLaurin as well. I thought we might see something closer to -6, so I’m actually going to take the Giants for a no confidence pick. A push seems like a likely result.

New York Giants 30 Washington Redskins 27

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Denver Broncos (0-3)

Minshew Mania has taken over Jacksonville, with backup quarterback and rookie sixth round pick Gardner Minshew leading the Jaguars to their first win of the season last week on Thursday Night Football. Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles in the first half of their first game of the season against the Chiefs and has completed 73.9% of his 88 pass attempts since, 2nd in the NFL and a record for highest completion percentage by a rookie quarterback in his first 3 games. However, if we look further down that list of quarterbacks who have gotten out to a hot start, we see that Minshew’s hot start doesn’t necessarily predict long-term future success. 

While the top-10 contains quarterbacks like Carson Wentz (7th) and Dak Prescott (4th), it also includes Colt McCoy (2nd), Cody Kessler (5th), Nick Mullens (6th), and Chris Weinke (9th). It’s important to remember that Minshew has played roughly 11 quarters and, as much of a crapshoot as the draft can be, the NFL rarely lets starting caliber quarterbacks fall out of the first 3 rounds. Even the Jaguars weren’t sure if Minshew could be the backup as recently as mid-August, after a whole off-season of seeing him. Minshew has so far proven many people wrong, including his own team, but that may not necessarily continue. 

I think the Jaguars are a little bit overrated right now because of Minshew Mania. As well as Minshew has played, the Jaguars still rank just 23rd in first down rate, due to a lack of talent around the quarterback, so if Minshew starts to struggle this offense will have a very difficult time moving the ball. The Broncos aren’t a good team, but I have them a few spots higher in my roster rankings than the Jaguars, who are expected to be without top cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and yet this line, which favors the Broncos by 3 points at home, suggests these two teams are about even. We are getting a little bit of line value with the Broncos, who are well positioned to get their first win of the season, but I wouldn’t recommend betting them because they have some injury concerns of their own (Kareem Jackson, Ja’Wuan James, Bryce Callahan) and have a tougher game on deck against the Chargers.

Denver Broncos 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Denver -3

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)

The Panthers come into this game just 1-2, but they could easily be 3-0 right now. They lost their first 2 games by a combined 9 points, including a 3-point loss to the Rams in which they failed to recover a single one of the games four fumbles. Those games were close despite getting worse than replacement level quarterback play from Cam Newton, who was clearly not at 100% due to a foot injury and now has been shut down indefinitely. Through 2 games, Newton had the worst completion percentage above expected in the league at -9.3% and was actively hurting this team, which has a strong roster around the quarterback.

In backup quarterback Kyle Allen’s first start of the season, the Panthers got their first win of the season in a 38-20 victory in Arizona. Allen is a former undrafted free agent and only has made two career starts, but he’s played well in both starts (QB ratings of 111.3 and 144.4) and the Panthers don’t need him to be great to win games. It shouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over what Cam Newton was for the first two games of the season, though it’s premature to suggest that he should continue playing if Newton can come back healthy. He gives them the luxury of not having to rush Newton back at less than 100%, but he may ultimately prove to be a quality backup caliber player. 

It seems like we’ve lost all line value with the Panthers as a result of Allen’s strong performance last week, as the Panthers, who were 2-point underdogs in Arizona last week, are now just 4-point underdogs against a much better Texans team. Allen should have a much tougher day against Houston’s defense than he did against an Arizona defense that is missing its two starting cornerbacks. The Panthers also have some other injury concerns, with defensive end Kawaan Short, right guard Trai Turner, and cornerback Donte Jackson not practicing on Friday. They still have a solid supporting cast without those two players, but their absences will likely be felt. My calculated line is actually Houston -4.5, so the Texans are probably the better pick for pick ‘em purposes. 

Houston Texans 22 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Houston -4

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1)

The Seahawks picked up their first loss of the season last week at home against the Teddy Bridgewater led Saints, but they actually had a better first down rate differential last week than they had in either of their two wins. They won their first two games of the season by a combined 3 points and had an even first down rate differential through 2 games. Last week, they lost by 6 points despite a +3.47% first down rate differential because they allowed a couple of return touchdowns, which swung the game on two snaps. 

Relatively healthy compared to the rest of the league, with defensive end Ezekiel Ansah back in the lineup after missing the first two games of the season, the Seahawks are an above average team that is well positioned in the NFC if they can remain healthy. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have yet to win their first game and rank just 29th in first down rate differential through 2 games. However, I actually like the Cardinals’ chances of catching the Seahawks off guard a little bit this week, because the Seahawks are in a terrible spot. 

Not only do the Seahawks have to play the Rams next week, they have to do so in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 56-77 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football and road favorites are just 24-50 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs, which the Seahawks likely will be (+2.5 on the early line). This is an obvious look ahead spot for the Seahawks, so even though we’re not getting any real line value (I have this line calculated at Seattle -5), the Cardinals are worth a small bet this week. They likely won’t be getting the Seahawks’ best effort and they will be desperate to get their first win against a divisional rival. They’re a competent enough team to keep this close and possibly pull the upset.

Seattle Seahawks 30 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Arizona +5.5

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-0-1)

Detroit +7 is one of two lines I locked in earlier this week, along with Cleveland +7. I legitimately don’t understand this line. It was at 6 last week and I thought it might be closer to 3 following the Lions’ upset victory in Philadelphia, but instead it’s gone up to 7. I’ve thought the Lions are an underrated team since before the season started. I loved the way their defense played down the stretch last season, after the acquisition of defensive tackle Damon Harrison and the breakout of fellow defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson, and then they added defensive end Trey Flowers to the mix in free agency this off-season, giving them one of the best defensive lines in the league.

Their offense slowed down around the time their defense improved last season, so no one paid much attention to their defensive improvement, but their offense struggles were in large part due to quarterback Matt Stafford playing through a broken back and not having most of his weapons healthy either. I didn’t have them making the post-season coming into the season, but that was more due to how loaded the NFC is more than anything. Off to a 2-0-1 start, the Lions could easily end up qualifying for the post-season when all is said and done. 

Given that, it’s really hard to figure out why they should be touchdown underdogs at home against anyone. The Chiefs are one of the top teams in the league and have a juggernaut offense even without top wide receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Eric Fisher, but their defense still has a hard time getting off the field and their average point differential on the road since the start of last season is +6.1, with just 3 wins by more than a touchdown. Why are they expected to beat an above average Lions team by multiple scores?

The one concern here is that Matt Stafford popped up on the injury report on Friday after tweaking his hip in practice. This is obviously something that I didn’t know when I locked this line in earlier this week and all sources are confirming he’ll still play (and the line hasn’t moved), but there’s a possibility he’ll be less than 100%, so that does create some uncertainty here. Unless I hear otherwise on Saturday, I’m proceeding with this as my Pick of the Week because we’re getting so much line value (my calculated line even pricing in the uncertainty with Stafford is Kansas City -1). The money line is also worth a bet, as the Lions have a great chance to pull the upset straight up if Stafford’s injury proves to be nothing.

Final Update: Matt Stafford seems like he’s going to be fine, but the Lions will be without top cornerback Darius Slay, who practiced all week in limited fashion, but was ruled out before gametime when his hamstring injury tightened. That hurts the Lions’ chances of pulling the upset, but they should still be able to keep this close game and cover this inflated spread.

Detroit Lions 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +255

Pick against the spread: Detroit +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

I typically like to bet against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This line has climbed all the way from Baltimore -4 on the early line last week to Baltimore -7 this week and it really doesn’t make sense why. In the past week, the Ravens lost in Kansas City in a game that was not close most of the way, while the Browns lost at home by a touchdown to the Rams in a game they had a chance to send to overtime at the end. The Browns have injury concerns, with starting cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams both unlikely to play again this week, but the Browns are in better shape injury wise than last week, with starting safety Damarious Randall set to return and possibly right tackle Chris Hubbard as well, and they’re pretty deep at cornerback, so that’s the one position where they can afford to have some injuries.

The Ravens aren’t exactly healthy either, set to miss starting cornerback Jimmy Smith once again. They had already lost fellow starting cornerback Tavon Young for the season before the year began and before that they had already lost 5 of their top-11 in terms of defensive snaps played from 2018 in the off-season. The Ravens had one of the best defenses in the league last year, which carried them to the post-season with a developing Lamar Jackson at quarterback, but, with a few exceptions, this is almost a completely different defense than last year. The addition of Earl Thomas at safety is big, but he can’t mask all of their other losses by himself. Last year, they were one of the few defenses that gave Kansas City trouble, nearly leading to the upset in Kansas City. Last week, they allowed the Chiefs to pick up a first down or score a touchdown on 48.44% of their offensive snaps.

The Ravens are obviously better on offense this year with Lamar Jackson seemingly making a second year leap and they could make the playoffs even with their defense being a shell of what it was, but Jackson has also faced a very easy slate of defenses so far this season, as the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Chiefs are all likely to finish among the worst defenses in the league this season. Jackson got lucky with an easy slate of defenses last year as well, with 5 of his 8 starts coming against teams that finished in the bottom-10 in first down rate allowed. Even at less than 100%, the Browns’ defense is better than what Jackson has been used to facing thus far in his career. I have the Ravens a little higher than the Browns in my roster rankings right now, but not nearly enough to justify this line being a full touchdown. This should be a close game and it wouldn’t shock me if the Browns were able to win outright, so I like the Browns +7 a good amount.

Final Update: The Ravens lost key defensive lineman Brandon Williams, one of four remaining healthy starters from 2018, to a late week knee injury. This just solidifies my pick of Cleveland. With Tavon Young, Jimmy Smith, and Brandon Williams out, the Ravens have comparable injury problems to the Browns, who are without safety Morgan Burnett, linebacker Christian Kirksey, and tight end David Njoku in addition to their two-top cornerbacks, but do get back safety Damarious Randall and right tackle Chris Hubbard.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: High

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-1)

The Colts have gotten off to a 2-1 start with new starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but they are one of the most banged up teams in the league right now. On offense, top wide receiver TY Hilton is doubtful, while their defense will be without their best player linebacker Darius Leonard, it’s best defensive back safety Malik Hooker, and possibly starting cornerback Pierre Desir, who only got a limited practice in on Friday, and expected starting defensive end Jabaal Sheard, who was yet to play this season and only got limited work in practice this week. 

Despite that, this line has jumped to Indianapolis -7 after the Colts’ narrow home victory over the Falcons last week, a game in which they lost the first down rate battle. On the season, they rank just 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.70%. The Colts don’t have a tough opponent this week, with the Raiders (26th in first down rate at -4.75%) coming to town, but, without the Colts’ roster as banged up as it is, I only have this line calculated at Indianapolis -4, so we’re getting pretty significant line value here. 

On top of that, this could be a look ahead spot for the Colts ahead of a trip to Kansas City next week. Favorites of 7+ are just 13-30 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs of 7+ and the Colts are currently 8.5-point underdogs on the early line. They could easily overlook the Raiders, something that could really hurt them at much less than 100%. This should be a close game, so I like the Raiders a lot this week.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Oakland Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Oakland +7

Confidence: High