NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

The Bengals entered the season as one of the most banged up teams in the league. In the off-season, they lost first round rookie Jonah Williams for the season, long-time starting guard Clint Boling to an injury related retirement, and several other players like wide receiver AJ Green, left tackle Cordy Glenn, and cornerback Darqueze Dennard indefinitely due to various injuries. Despite that, they almost pulled the upset week 1 in Seattle, as one of the biggest underdogs of the week. They lost by just 1 point in a game that swung on the Seahawks recovering 3 of 4 fumbles and the Bengals won the first down rate battle by 3.67%. 

The Seahawks were an overrated opponent, especially with defensive end Ezekiel Ansah out with injury, but the Bengals get another opponent this week that could be overrated. The 49ers won 31-17 in Tampa Bay week 1, but they lost the first down rate battle by 3.85%, winning largely due to takeaways, which are inconsistent week-to-week. Jimmy Garrappolo looked rusty in his return from injury and the Bengals defense looked significantly improved in week 1 over last season’s underperforming unit. We’re not getting much line value with the Bengals -1, but I have these two teams about even in my rankings, so this line should be closer to -3. The Bengals are my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but there’s not enough here to bet on them. 

Cincinnati Bengals 20 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -1

Confidence: Low

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)

This game is tough to predict. On one hand, this line suggests the Titans are only about even with the Colts, favoring them at home by a field goal, which I don’t think is accurate. A lot of attention is being paid to the Browns’ disappointing start to the season, getting blown out by home by 30 against the Titans last week, but the Titans are not getting attention for their strong performance in the 43-13 victory. They dominated the game as much as the final score suggested, winning the first down rate battle by 11.31%, the 4th highest margin of the week. The Titans looked likely to have a strong running game and defense this season, but their passing game looked strong as well, with several new weapons added in the off-season and Marcus Mariota looked much healthier and more comfortable than he did most of last season. If that can continue, this should be a very competitive team in the AFC. 

However, this is also a tough spot for the Browns, as they have to turn around and play another game in 4 days on Thursday Night Football against the Jaguars. Favorites are just 55-75 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football and the Titans could easily overlook the Andrew Luck less Colts with another game right around the corner. The Titans were highly inconsistent last year, as they beat four playoff qualifiers, but couldn’t make the playoffs themselves because of losses to the Bills and Dolphins. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see them follow up a big road win in Cleveland with a disappointing home performance against the Colts, especially before a short week. I’m taking the Titans for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t be confident in them at all.

Tennessee Titans 20 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

The Seahawks were one of the highest favored teams week 1, at home against a very banged up Bengals team, but they ended up winning by just 1 point in a game they easily could have lost. They lost the first down rate battle by 3.67% and the game largely swung on the Seahawks recovering 3 out of 4 fumbles in the game. Fumble recovery rate is very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t be able to count on that again this week.

I was concerned about the Seahawks’ defense coming in the season, even after they acquired Jadeveon Clowney from the Texans, but their offensive performance week 1 was concerning as well. Russell Wilson played well, but his lack of supporting cast was evident. He was sacked 4 times on 24 drop backs, was supported by just 3.05 yards per carry from his running backs, and had just 5 passes caught by wide receivers. As a result, the Seahawks had just a 30.61% first down rate. 

The Seahawks get a boost from on defense this week from the return of defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, who missed week 1, but their offense isn’t getting any reinforcements and the Steelers’ defense gets back safety Sean Davis, who was badly missed in their loss in New England last week. This line at Pittsburgh -3.5 suggests the hometown Steelers are the slightly better team. I have a little bit bigger of a gap between these two teams and the Steelers are likely underrated after having to face such a tough opponent week 1, but we’re not getting enough line value with the Steleers to bet on them. If this line moves down to 3 before gametime, I would reconsider.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)

This is a rematch of last year’s controversial NFC Championship game, which ended with the Rams pulling the upset in New Orleans and advancing in part due to a non called pass interference that prompted the league to change the rules to allow for pass interference to be challenged and reviewed. The Saints now travel west to face the Rams in Los Angeles. Having homefield advantage will benefit the Rams, but they’re not quite as good of a team as last season, losing several starters on both sides of the ball this off-season, including key players like Ndamukong Suh, Rodger Saffold, and LaMarcus Joyner. 

The Rams won week 1 in Carolina, but that game swung on a few plays, as the Rams recovered all 4 fumbles in a game they won by 3. They also lost the first down rate battle to a Carolina team that then went on to lose at home to the Buccaneers. Despite that, the Rams are favored over the Saints, albeit only by 2 points. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Saints and the Saints have really struggled in the first couple weeks of the season in recent years (3-15-1 ATS since 2010), so this is only a low confidence pick, but the money line is worth a small bet at +110.

New Orleans Saints 33 Los Angeles Rams 30 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +2

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)

This line favors the visiting New England Patriots by 19.5 points here in Miami, just the third time in the past 30 years that a team has been favored by 17 points or more on the road. It’s understandable why this line is where it is. The Dolphins stripped down their roster this off-season, to accumulate cap space and draft picks for the future, and are left with not only the least talented team in the league by far but also a demotivated one, as the players don’t believe the front office and coaching staff are trying to compete this season. They lost their home opener 59-10 to a Ravens team that lost 6 defensive starters in the off-season and might not even end up being that good. The Patriots, meanwhile, are defending Super Bowl Champions and coming off of a dominant performance against the Steelers week 1.

That doesn’t mean this game is a lock to be a blowout though and, in fact, neither of the last two teams to be favored by 17+ on the road came close to covering. In week 13 of 1992, the Bills actually lost on the road in Indianapolis as 20-point road favorites, while the Patriots nearly lost in week 13 during their perfect season in 2007 as 17-point road favorites in Baltimore, salvaging a win in the last minute. 

Does that mean this game will be close too? Well, when we include teams favored by 14-16 points on the road, we see that big road favorites actually have a winning record against the spread (15-11 ATS since 1989), so there really isn’t a larger trend. The Patriots have struggled in Miami in the past and they have started slow in past seasons and this game might be more about getting Antonio Brown acclimated than anything, but even if that’s the case they could still win this game with ease. The Patriots appeared to be in mid-season form last week and they’re in a great spot with only a game against the Jets and backup quarterback Trevor Siemian on deck. Favorites of double digits are 44-31 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of double digits again, which the Patriots almost definitely will be next week. I can’t take the Patriots with any confidence this week because this line has kind of gotten out of control, but I am expecting a blowout.

New England Patriots 31 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: New England -19.5

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at New York Giants: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

A lot of the concern around the Giants coming into the season was around their offense, which lost Odell Beckham this off-season, but they showed in their week 1 loss in Dallas that the bigger concern is their defense, which has lost Olivier Vernon, Landon Collins, and Damon Harrison in the past calendar year and looked like one of the weakest in the league coming into the season. Their offense actually has a chance to be decent when they are at full strength because they have an improved offensive line and they still have several playmakers without Odell Beckham like Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, and Golden Tate. Shepard is out this week with a concussion though, while Tate still has three games left on his suspension, so they’re pretty thin in the receiving corps as well right now. 

The Giants are playing a Bills team that won on the road at the Jets week 1, coming back from down 16-0 to win 17-16. The Bills got down early because of turnovers, but managed to win the game despite a -3 turnover margin, which is very impressive, even against an underwhelming Jets team. On average, teams with a -3 turnover margin win just 10.3% of the time. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and the Bills finished week 1 with the 3rd best first down rate differential in the league, only behind the Ravens and Patriots. 

The Bills still have concerns, but they look to be improved over last season and could easily compete for a wild card spot in the AFC, which is by far the weaker conference. The Giants are an NFC team, but they’re one of the worst, so the Bills could easily win this game to start out 2-0. We’re not getting much line value with them at Buffalo -2, which is about where I have it, but most games are decided by at least a field goal, so Buffalo should cover if they win. A Buffalo win by a field goal seems like the most likely outcome, but there’s not nearly enough here to bet them with confidence.

Buffalo Bills 23 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -2

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Detroit Lions: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0-1)

The Chargers are one of the most shorthanded teams in the league right now. Melvin Gordon’s holdout might not affect them if Austin Ekeler keeps playing like he did week 1, but they were already without their top offensive lineman Russell Okung and their top defensive back Derwin James indefinitely due to injury and now they’ll be without talented tight end Hunter Henry, who is out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. Despite that, the public still seems to see them as a top team, after a 12-win 2018 season (partially due to a 6-1 record in games decided by 8 points or fewer). 

They’re favored here on the road in Detroit and, even though this line is only two points, we’re getting great value with the Lions, who are arguably the better team right now, given the Chargers’ injury situation. The Lions are an underrated team whose defense played well down the stretch last season after the addition of Damon Harrison, who they have complemented on the defensive line with off-season acquisitions Mike Daniels and Trey Flowers. Their offense struggled down the stretch last season, but they’re healthier now with Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson back and they added Danny Amendola and TJ Hockenson this off-season to replace Golden Tate as middle of the field targets for Matt Stafford.

The Lions blew a 24-6 4th quarter lead in Arizona last week and ended up tying the Cardinals, but they won the first down rate battle by 4.45%, which was the 9th best margin of the week. The Chargers, meanwhile, pulled out at overtime victory at home over the Colts, but easily could have lost if the Colts hadn’t missed multiple kicks in regulation. At the very worst, these teams are about even, but this line suggests the Chargers are about 5 points better. I like the Lions chances of winning and covering at home a lot.

Detroit Lions 26 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Detroit +2

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

I had relatively high expectations for the Falcons going into the season, as their defense looked likely to be improved with Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, and Ricardo Allen back from injury. Their defense struggled in a week 1 loss in Minnesota, allowing a 44.90% first down rate in a 28-12 defeat. The Falcons didn’t play nearly as badly as the final score suggested, however, as the game swung on a few turnovers. The Falcons only lost the final down rate battle by 1.61%, but they threw two interceptions, lost a fumble, failed to recover two Minnesota fumbles, and had a punt blocked. Turnover margin and fumble recovery rate tend to be highly inconsistent week-to-week, so I think the Falcons are pretty underrated going into this week.

The Eagles are obviously a tough opponent, but I still have this line calculated at Atlanta -1. We’re not getting great value with the Falcons at +2, but I think they have a good shot to win this game outright. We could very easily see a much more focused Falcons team at home in a big measuring stick game against one of the top teams in the conference. This is only a low confidence pick against the spread, but the money line at +115 is worth a small bet.

Atlanta Falcons 30 Philadelphia Eagles 27 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Redskins made some big plays early last week against the Eagles and shockingly jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but they couldn’t do much from there, as the Eagles went up 32-20 before the Redskins led a garbage time touchdown drive at the end of the game. Even with the garbage time touchdown included, the Redskins finished the week with the 7th worst first down rate differential at 6.11% and still look likely to finish as one of the worst teams in the league. Not helping matters is the Redskins’ injury situation, with cornerback Quinton Dunbar and defensive end Jonathan Allen likely joining cornerback Fabian Moreau, who missed week 1, on the sidelines. 

The Cowboys faced another one of the likely worst teams in the league last season, blowing out the Giants 35-17. They also have another really easy game on deck, as they host the Dolphins next week, so they should be fully focused. Favorites of 6 or more are 99-63 ATS since 2014 before being favored by 6 or more again. We’re not getting great line value with the Cowboys at -6.5, but I have this line calculated at -9.5, so the Cowboys should be able to take care of business here, without any upcoming distractions on deck. This game is unlikely to be close barring another garbage time touchdown. 

Dallas Cowboys 30 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

Both of these teams missed the playoffs last season despite high expectations and both of these teams looked improved in week 1 over last season. The odds makers seem to think these two teams are about even, favoring the Packers at home by a field goal. I think this spread is off though, as I have higher expectations for the Packers. Both teams won week 1, but the Packers’ win came on the road in Chicago, while the Vikings’ win came at home against the Falcons. The Vikings had a higher margin of victory, but that game swung on a few plays, with the Vikings winning the turnover margin by 4. Turnover margin tends to be highly inconsistent week-to-week, so they won’t necessarily be able to rely on that again this week. 

Week 1 aside, I also had higher expectations for the Packers coming into the season, with an improved defense and a healthier Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings should be better on offense this season with a better offensive line and a more balanced game plan, but their defense has several key players over 30 and likely won’t be as good as they’ve been in recent years. Aside from their takeaways, their defense struggled to stop the Falcons from moving up and down the field week 1, allowing a 43.28% first down rate and only winning the first down rate battle by 1.61%. The Packers’ offense didn’t look great week 1, but that was on the road in Chicago, who still has arguably the best defense in the NFL. They’re the more talented team in this matchup and should be favored by more than a field goal. I’m going to keep this at a medium confidence bet until we get clarification on David Bahktiari’s status, but even if he does end up sitting the Packers still have a good shot in this game. 

Update: Bahktiari is expected to play and yet this line has dropped to 2.5, so I’m moving this up to high confidence. I have this line calculated at Green Bay -7, so we’re getting significant line value with the Packers. If I was confident Bahktiari was 100%, this would be my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 24 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: High