NFL Picks

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

I have these two teams about even coming into the season. San Diego has better quarterback play, but Detroit has a better supporting cast. I have both teams snagging a wild card berth, San Diego with 10 wins in the AFC and Detroit with 9 wins in the NFC. San Diego’s has been right around in the playoff mix over the past 2 seasons and I think this is their best team of the past 3 years. The defense will be better than it was 2 years ago thanks to the addition of Brandon Flowers and a now healthy Jason Verrett at cornerback.

Their offense probably won’t be as good as they were 2 years ago, but they’re more talented and healthier than they were last year. They had the most offensive adjusted games lost in the league last year and they also added the likes of running back Melvin Gordon, offensive tackle Joseph Barksdale, and guard Orlando Franklin this off-season. The running game and the offensive line were major offensive weaknesses last season and both should be much better this year, while the passing offense remains a serious weapon. Their front 7 is still a major weakness and prevents them from being a serious contender, but this is still a very solid football team.

As for Detroit, they were actually better in 2013 when they won 7 games than they were in 2014 when they won 11 games. The Lions underachieved in terms of wins and losses in both 2012 and 2013, going 11-21. However, that was largely as a result of a 6-14 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, a -25 turnover margin, and a -10 return touchdown margin. Those things tend to be inconsistent from year-to-year and, in 2014, everything swung the other way with the Lions. They went 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, had a +7 turnover margin, and had a +1 return touchdown margin. As a result, they went 11-5, but ranked 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, after going 7-9 and ranking 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013.

This year, they should have both Calvin Johnson and Stephen Tulloch back healthy for the whole year, while Matt Stafford could have a bounce back year. The offense should be better, but the defense is unlikely to be, even with Tulloch healthy, because of off-season losses on the defensive line and aging players in the secondary. Even with these two teams being even, I’m going to take the Chargers because the Lions are limping into the season and expected to be without talented linebacker DeAndre Levy and talented guard Larry Warford in this one. The Chargers won’t have Antonio Gates either, but I think the Lions’ losses will hurt them way more. The line often doesn’t take into account injuries to serious non-skill position players because casual fans don’t always pay attention, so we’re getting value with a Chargers team that should be at least -5 here at home. They’re -3 and even -2.5 in some places, so they’re the pick here.

San Diego Chargers 27 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -3

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

I hate to start the regular season off with a no confidence pick, but I think that’s where I’m going here. I think Pittsburgh is overrated, after having the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury last season, including the fewest on offense. Their offense won’t be as good as it was last season, when they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, especially early in the season as they are already without stud running back LeVeon Bell for 2 games with suspension, promising young wide receiver Martavis Bryant for 4 games with suspension, and Pro-Bowl caliber center Maurkice Pouncey for at least 2 months with a broken leg. Meanwhile, on defense, things should be bad once again.

However, I don’t love the Patriots in this game or anything. They have their own issues and also won’t be the same time this season. Tom Brady’s suspension for DeflateGate was thrown out in federal court, but Brady is still going into his age 38 season and their secondary remains a huge issue, following the loss of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, and Kyle Arrington this off-season. They also have their own key absences as wide receiver Brandon LaFell and center Bryan Stork will both miss at least a month with injury, while LeGarrette Blount is suspended for this game, leaving the Patriots’ thin on talent around Brady. I’d pick them if I had to and it’s worth noting that over the last 11 instances of a defending Super Bowl champion playing week 1 on a Thursday at home, they’ve won all 11 times and gone 8-3 ATS, but I’m not confident with them as touchdown favorites.

New England Patriots 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8)

This feels like a classic Steeler let down game. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers are just 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-15 ATS off of a win, 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more, and 2-12 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more off a loss. So, as weird as this sounds, I actually really like the Jets this week. As bad as they’ve been this season, everyone covers the spread every once in a while. Teams are 61-39 ATS since 1989 on an 8+ game losing streak, including 55-32 ATS as underdogs and 25-16 ATS as home underdogs. They could easily catch the Steelers off guard, as many teams do as non-divisional home underdogs against them. It doesn’t help the Steelers that their already thin defense will be without Ryan Shazier and Troy Polamalu this week.

This line has moved from 5.5 and 6 at opening to 4.5 and in some places 4. On one hand, I wish I got this line earlier because Jets +6 would have been such a great bet. On the other hand, that line movement suggests the sharps are on the Jets, as the public is all over the Steelers, which gives me more confidence in the Jets, even with the line moving down. The Steelers are 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.23% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 3.28%. On the other hand, the Jets are 27th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.20% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of -3.98%. That means this line should be about 4.5, even before you take the aforementioned trends into account. If you can still get this at anything higher than 4, the Jets are absolutely the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Jets 23

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Steelers, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)

People are pretty down on the Steelers here after their loss to the Browns as the public is all over the Texans. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog. If the Texans are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why is this line 3.5? The odds makers generally have a better sense of how good teams actually are than the public. I actually think this line is too low and that it’s a trap line for people who are on the Texans. The Texans aren’t as good as their record, while the Steelers aren’t as bad as they looked last week.

The Texans are moving the chains at a 69.77% rate, as opposed to 73.53% for their opponents, a differential of -3.76% that is 25th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Steelers are right in the middle of the pack at 16th, moving the chains at a 74.36% rate, as opposed to 73.63% for their opponents, a differential of 0.73%. The Steelers are the significantly better team here and I like their chances of covering here, especially against a Houston team that could be divisional underdogs in Tennessee next week. Teams are 51-78 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Steelers should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Confidence: Low

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2009 NFL Picks

stevenlourie NFL Picks

 

My record: 

Last week: 2-0

Playoffs: 7-3 (.700)

Overall picks (2009): 175-93 (.653)

 

Lock picks (2009): 13-4

Upset picks (2009): 20-30 

 

Colts vs. Saints (at Miami) 31-34

One thing is sure about Super Bowl XLIV, a lot of points are going to be scored. Both teams rank in the top 5 in the major team passing categories. The two starting quarterbacks finished one-two in MVP voting. The Saints boast the league’s #1 scoring offense, while Indy has the #7. In terms of total yards, Indy ranks 9th and the Saints 1st. Though, that alone should not predict the Saints victory. The Saints may have had a higher margin of victory and more impressive blowout victories, but the Colts were consistent this year and are 16-0 (including playoffs) in games in which Peyton Manning has played the entire game, while the Saints actually did look bad to end the regular season losing their last 3, two of which Drew Brees started. I think its safe to say that the Saints at their best are better than their Colts at their best, but the Saints at their worst are worse than the Colts are their worst. Which version of the Saints that will show up is a mystery right now, though they did look really good in their first two playoff games, more so against the Cardinals than the Saints however. I also expect it to be very close because these are two similarly matched teams, though the Super Bowl odds don’t exactly suggest that right now so you might want to take advantage of that.

Both teams had relatively easy schedules this season and neither side has faced a quarterback of the caliber that they will be facing in the Super Bowl this week. However, we can look at how the two teams did against elite quarterbacks this year and to get a feel for how the individual secondaries are likely to stand up against the opposition this week. The 4 toughest quarterbacks (top 3rd) the Saints faced (in no particular order), Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Tony Romo were 88 for 142 for 1064 yards, 2 touchdowns and 5 picks in those 6 games. The top 4 that the Colts faced, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub (twice), were 122 for 179 for 1302 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 7 picks. The Saints also faced Eli Manning and Matt Ryan and held them to 33 for 73 for 467 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 picks, which is impressive as well. Though this does not mean Peyton Manning is going to have an awful game, I think it shows that the Saints have a better chance at slowing down Peyton Manning than the Colts have at slowing down Drew Brees, and in a matchup this evenly matched, we need to look for little edges like this.

The Colts ability to stop the Saints is going to have a lot to do with whether or not they can get pressure on Drew Brees. The achilles heel of the Saints offense is left tackle, where Jermon Bushrod (nice name) is in his first year as a starter after an early injury to Jamaal Brown. In his worst game of the season, a loss to the Cowboys, Brees was sacked 4 times and fumbled twice. That was the only time I saw the Drew Brees led Saints struggle this year and I think the Colts will have to do something similar. They have one of the leagues best pass rushes, the issue, Dwight Freeney has a severely sprained ankle and will either not play or not play at anywhere near 100%. As we’ve seen before, when one guy goes down on a defensive line, especially a guy like Freeney, you don’t just lose him, the rest of the line struggles as well.

Teams like Dallas also showed that if you can take away his running game, Drew Brees will struggle. Stopping the rush is the Colts’ achilles heel and I expect the Saints rushing attack, led by the best guard duo in the NFL, to be more effective than the Colts’ and that will be another added advantage. Reggie Bush is the ex factor for the Saints. That might be the biggest difference between these two teams. The Colts don’t have anyone like that and Bush can beat you in so many different ways, running the ball, catching the ball, returning kicks and punts.

These two teams are fairly evenly matched. Both have good pass defenses and amazing pass offenses led by great depth at the wide receiver position and arguably the top best quarterbacks in the NFL. However, the Saints have a very subtle advantages. They have more experience against elite quarterbacks and they have had significantly better success against elite quarterbacks this year. The Colts are also going to struggle to do the things necessary to stop the Saints passing attack, pressure Brees and stop the run. The Saints should also have a moderate home field advantage. It won’t be the Superdome, but the South tends to stick together so I imagine the Miami crowd will be favoring the Saints. For this reason, I think the Saints will win a close game. I actually this its important I emphasize close. Either way, I expect this to be a close game with a lot of points, when we look at the Super Bowl odds, we see that the Colts are favored more than a field goal. Based on how close this game is going to be, I’d feel very confident taking the Saints to at least cover if not win because I expect that if they lose, it won’t be by much.

 

 

Conference Championships (2010)

Conference Semis (2010)

Wild Card (2010)

Week 17 (2009)

Week 16 (2009)

Week 15 (2009)

Week 14 (2009)

Week 13 (2009)

Week 12 (2009)

Week 11 (2009)

Week 10 (2009)

Week 9 (2009)

Week 8 (2009)

Week 7 (2009)

Week 6 (2009)

Week 5 (2009)

Week 4 (2009)

Week 3 (2009)

Week 2 (2009)

Week 1 (2009)