NFL Picks

Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers: 2025 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

The Packers are in a good spot this week. Non-divisional home favorites cover at a 60.7% rate on Thursday Night Football because it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week, unless it is a divisional matchup between familiar opponents or unless the visitor is the superior team, neither of which are the case in this game. Unfortunately, the Packers enter this game very banged up, likely to be without top cornerback Nate Hobbs and a pair of starting offensive linemen in Aaron Banks and Zach Tom, the latter of whom is their best offensive lineman. None of those three have been ruled out, but Banks and Tom did not practice all week, while Hobbs did not play week 1 and has yet to practice in full since having off-season knee surgery.

My calculated line has the Packers favored by 3 in their current injury situation, but this line has remained at 3.5, despite the Packers likely absences, which is a big deal because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. If the Packers get some good injury news or this line drops to 3, I may increase the confidence of this pick, but for now this is a no confidence pick and, if both teams were on regular rest, I would be taking the Commanders +3.5.

Update: This line has dropped to 3 in some places so I am increasing this to a low confidence pick, but I would need at least Zach Tom to play for this line to be bettable.

Green Bay Packers 21 Washington Commanders 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Low

2025 Week 1 NFL Picks

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131-85 ATS on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) in 2023-2024, 57.3% ATS all-time

Pick of the Week

DEN 20 TEN 17 (+8.5)

High Confidence Picks

NYJ 19 (+3) PIT 17 Upset Pick +130

ARZ 27 (-6.5) NO 13

Medium Confidence Picks

JAX 31 (-3.5) CAR 24

SF 24 (-1) SEA 20

IND 20 (-1) MIA 16

LV 26 (+2.5) NE 24 Upset Pick +125

MIN 27 (-1) CHI 23

Low Confidence Picks

CIN 24 CLE 20 (+5.5)

BAL 30 (-1) BUF 27

TB 27 (PK) ATL 24

KC 24 (-3) LAC 17

PHI 27 (-7.5) DAL 17

No Confidence Picks

WAS 27 (-6) NYG 20

LAR 20 HOU 17 (+3.5)

GB 27 (-2) DET 24

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) in Brazil

The Chiefs won 15 games and made the Super Bowl a year ago, but they didn’t have a lot of wins by big margins, with just three of their 17 victories coming by more than 10 points, six coming by more than 7 points, and six coming by 3 points or fewer, relevant considering this line is Kansas City -3. Including their three losses, just over half (11) of the twenty games the Chiefs played last season resulted in them winning by more than 3 points. 

There is potential for the Chiefs to win more games by bigger margins this season once their receiving corps gets to full strength, but they are going to be without their eventual #1 receiver Rashee Rice for the first six games of the season due to suspension. Rice missed most of last season with injury, but it’s worth noting that if you exclude the four games he played last season, the Chiefs won by more than 3 points in exactly half of their games, 8 out of 16. On top of that, the Chiefs have also lost talented guard Joe Thuney and top safety Justin Reid from last year’s team, though the addition of rookie left tackle Josh Simmons should somewhat offset the loss of Thuney.

Given all of that, it wouldn’t be wise to confidently bet the Chiefs as 3-point favorites in a neutral site against a decent Chargers team. My calculated line is exactly where the actual line is at -3. One thing working in the Chiefs’ favor is that the better team tends to cover in international games as they tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances, leading to favorites being 37-20 ATS in international games all time. However, I don’t think that is enough to be confident in the Chiefs covering this spread. The Chiefs are my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a low confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

The Eagles are defending Super Bowl Champions at home in the first game of the season, which tends to be a good spot for teams, going 13-6-1 ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, we have lost significant line value in the last week, with this line moving from Philadelphia -6.5 to -7.5 in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade. Losing Parsons will be a huge loss for the Cowboys, but he was unlikely to play a significant snap count in this game and might not have played at all after a monthlong holdout, so that line movement, crossing over a key number of 7, seems like an overreaction.

As much as Parsons being traded is a big deal, the Eagles lost a lot this off-season as well and are unlikely to be as good as they were down the stretch last season as a result, particularly on defense, where five of the eleven players who played at least 500 snaps for them are no longer with the team, after being a league best unit in 2024. I am still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t bet them confidently as long as the line is a touchdown or more.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LIX Pick

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Kansas CIty Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl LIX

The Chiefs are small favorites for the second straight game, favored by 1.5 points in the Super Bowl against the Eagles after being favored by 1.5 points against the Bills in the AFC Championship. Against the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs, citing the Chiefs’ history when they’re not big favorites, and their history in close games. Overall, the Chiefs are 51-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer when Patrick Mahomes starts, including 11-0 this season, and they are 20-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three when Mahomes starts, including 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Because of that, the Chiefs are close to an automatic bet in those spots, unless there is a good reason not to pick them.

However, this game against the Eagles is different and there are a couple good reasons to bet against the Chiefs this time around. For one, the Eagles have been just as good in close games as the Chiefs in recent years, going 20-5 over the past three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. On top of that, while the Bills and Chiefs were pretty evenly matched, the Eagles look like a significantly better team, so this game might not even end up being that close.

The Eagles had a significant edge in both first down rate differential (+2.78% vs. +1.82%) and yards per play differential (+0.91 vs. -0.06), this season, excluding both teams’ meaningless week 18 game. The Eagles also are in a much better injury situation now than they have been for much of the season. The Chiefs have recently gotten back key players in starting wide receiver Marquise Brown (15 games missed), starting edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and starting cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. However, that pales in comparison to the Eagles.

All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games missed), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all missed significant time this season and have since returned, while talented edge defender Brandon Graham (9 games missed) seems likely to return. Having Hurts healthy is probably the most important one, as the Eagles have won 12 straight games that he has started and finished.

In the current injury situations these two teams are in, the Eagles have a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. The Chiefs obviously have the edge at quarterback, but aside from that, there isn’t a single other position group where the Chiefs have the edge. The Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl matchup against the Buccaneers a few years ago, when the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl on the strength of a lot of close victories (9-0 in one-score games that season), before running into a much better team and getting blown out. Even if this game does end up being relatively close, the Chiefs wouldn’t necessarily have the edge in a close game either, given Jalen Hurts recent track record in close games. I wouldn’t make a big wager on the Eagles because of the Chiefs’ history as underdogs or small favorites in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting too much line value with the Eagles to pass on betting on them.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Championship Pick

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Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Championship Pick

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Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)

With the Lions losing in their first playoff game last week, the Chiefs have the best record in the league at 16-2 and one of those two losses was a meaningless week 18 game when they didn’t play their starters with the one seed already locked up. However, the Chiefs won a lot of close games, with just six wins by more than seven points and a 10-0 record in games decided by seven points or less. The Bills have a worse record than the Chiefs, but still have much better numbers in terms of yards per play differential (+0.42 vs. -0.08) and comparable numbers in terms of first down rate differential (1.21% vs. 1.29%), when you exclude both teams’ meaningless week 18 games.

Typically first down rate differential and yards per play differential are significantly more predictive than win/loss record and, along with that, a teams’ record in one-score games is not predictive, but the Chiefs are now 50-19 in one-score games when Patrick Mahomes starts, which is a pretty big sample size. For comparison, the Bills are just 22-20 in one-score games with Josh Allen since his breakout season in 2020, as good as Allen has been over that time period. 

The gap between these two teams in terms of the aforementioned metrics might suggest this is not necessarily going to be a close game, but my roster rankings have these two teams about equal. The Chiefs are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. 

The Chiefs have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. As a result, they seem to have gotten better as the year has gone on, with four of their six wins by more than seven points this season coming in their last four meaningful games. The Bills, on the other hand, were one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season, but now enter this AFC Championship game missing top safety Taylor Rapp and potentially top cornerback Christian Benford, who has yet to clear the concussion protocol.

With this likely to be a close game, the Chiefs seem like the right side. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given their tendency to win close games, the Chiefs have been great this season against the spread when not big favorites, going 7-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of six points or fewer (excluding week 18), as opposed to 0-7-1 when favored by more than six points. Going back to Mahomes’ first season as a starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 19-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three in games started by Mahomes, including a 18-8 straight up record, making them close to an automatic bet in that situation, especially in the playoffs, when they are 7-0 ATS. My calculated line of Chiefs -2.5 doesn’t give us much value with the Chiefs at -1.5, but as long as this game is expected to be close, I like the Chiefs chances of pulling out the victory. This is only a small bet for now, but I would probably increase it if Benford winds up not playing.

Kansas City Chiefs 28 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Both of these teams came into the playoffs much healthier than they were at stretches this season. The Rams almost beat the Lions in Detroit week 1, but lost top wide receiver Puka Nacua in that game and were just 2-4 when he returned to the lineup in week 8. From week 8 on, the Rams won 8 of 10 games, excluding a meaningless week 18 game in which their starters didn’t play. During that 8 wins in 10 games stretch, the Rams had a 4-game stretch from week 13 to week 16 in which they had their expected starting five offensive linemen together for the first time all season, a stretch in which they won all 4 games, including an upset victory over the Bills.

Even excluding the Rams’ meaningless week 18 game, they still finished the regular season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), but from week 8 to week 17, those numbers were -0.01 and 1.78% respectively and in their four games with a healthy offensive line those numbers were +0.07 and +3.29%. Now essentially fully healthy in the post-season, the Rams dismantled the Vikings in round 1, winning the yards per play battle by +1.94 and the first down rate battle by +3.52%.

The Eagles also have underwhelming season-long numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing the regular season at +0.87 and 2.91% respectively, excluding their meaningless week 18 game, but that is still significantly better than the Rams’ season-long numbers and the Eagles have had several key players miss significant time with injury who have since returned, far more than even the Rams. That list includes All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

In their current injury situations, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Rams in my roster rankings and look like a significantly better team. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at home in this game, so there isn’t quite enough here for them to be bettable, especially since the Rams are one of the better road teams in the league due to their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but the Eagles still look like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4)

The Bills finished the regular season one game better than the Ravens, one and a half games if you ignore the Bills’ meaningless week 18 loss to the Patriots, but the Ravens faced a much tougher schedule, with an opponents’ winning percentage of .529, second best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .467 for the Bills, third worst among playoff qualifiers. Both teams blew out inferior opponents in the first round of the post-season, but in the regular season, the Ravens had much more success against playoff qualifiers than the Bills did, as the Bills played just five playoff qualifiers, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and went just 2-3 with a -15 point differential in those games, while the Ravens played ten playoff qualifiers, most among playoff qualifiers, and went 7-3 with +112 point differential, which was best among playoff qualifiers by a wide margin.

Despite the much tougher schedule, the Ravens finished the regular season with significantly better numbers in yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing first in both categories by a wide margin at +1.66 and +6.36% respectively (second place in both metrics was +0.99 and +4.70% respectively). The Bills, on the other hand, finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of +0.55 and a first down rate differential of 1.50%, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did have a significantly better turnover margin (+24 vs. +6), but turnover margins are not very predictive. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game in the regular season have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season and have a post-season record of just 23-24.

The Ravens also got significantly better down the stretch once they benched struggling safety Marcus Williams after week 10. From week 11 to week 18, their defense ranked first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense wasn’t quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens had a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% over that stretch, both best in the league.

This spread seems to take some of this into account, favoring the Ravens by 1 point on the road, despite the Bills having a better record, but I think we’re still getting some line value with the visitors. My biggest concern with betting the Ravens is that they will likely be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers for the second straight week due to injury, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league in the regular season, but even with his absence the Ravens still have a 4-point edge over the Bills in my roster rankings, so I think the Ravens are still bettable even without Flowers, albeit for a smaller play than if Flowers was playing.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium