Offseason Moves 2012

Miami Dolphins trade CB Vontae Davis to the Indianapolis Colts

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Colts, Dolphins, Offseason Moves 2012

Trade for Colts: Ah, so this was the big trade Jim Irsay was tweeting about. Davis was one of the potential candidates I mentioned when I wrote on the subject a few days ago, along with Denver’s Ryan Clady and Baltimore’s Cary Williams. The Colts are taking a big risk here. If Davis plays like he did last year, this is an obvious steal for them.

Last season, he allowed just 36 completions on 66 attempts (54.5%) for 496 yards (7.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 4 penalties. Only 24 and owed just over a combined two million in the next 2 seasons, the Colts could be getting a legitimate #1 cornerback who is young and cheap. At a position of major need, that’s definitely worth a 2nd round pick (and a 6th round pick, but that pick is pretty irrelevant in this trade). Davis will likely be the #1 cornerback in Indianapolis, moving Jerraud Powers off of opponents’ #1 receivers and filling a gapping hole in the starting lineup.

However, last year was Davis’ first elite season as the 2009 1st round pick allowed over 60% completion and more touchdowns than interceptions in each of his first 2 seasons in the league in 2010 to 2011. It’s definitely not uncommon for a player to have a breakout 3rd year and then continue their strong level of play, but Davis wasn’t impressing the Dolphins’ new coaching staff because he showed up out of shape to Training Camp and fell behind two cornerbacks on the depth chart.

Davis also has some injury history as he missed 4 games last season, but that’s not nearly as concerning as the potential work ethic problems. If the Colts are, in fact, getting a young, cheap, #1 cornerback for a 2nd round pick, it’s an obvious steal, but you have to wonder why a team would give away a young, cheap #1 cornerback for a 2nd round pick. Colts fans should know that Davis comes with a buyer beware tag. On top of that, the Colts are getting a guy roughly 2 weeks before the first game of the season. That’s not a lot of time for him to learn the playbook and the coverage scheme.

Grade: B

Trade for the Dolphins: It looked like Davis was going to open the season as the Dolphins’ #3 cornerback. Sean Smith has reportedly done the opposite of Davis this offseason, showing up to camp slimmed down 24 pounds to 6-3 190, making a strong impression, and looking poised to bounce back from a down season. In 2011 he allowed 61 completions on 104 attempts (58.7%) for 793 yards (7.6 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties. In 2010, he allowed 24 completions on 45 attempts (53.3%) for 325 yards (7.2 YPA), 1 touchdown and 1 interception, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 1 penalty in 11 starts at cornerback (he made 4 at safety too, but wasn’t as good).

Richard Marshall, meanwhile, is looking continue his strong play from 2011. He allowed 28 completions on 54 attempts (51.9%) for 394 yards (7.3 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties last season. He ranked 3rd in the league in receptions per coverage snap, 7th in yards per coverage snap, and 2nd in targets per coverage snap.

However, if they’re wrong about Davis and he bounces back as a young, cheap #1 cornerback in Indianapolis, they’re going to wish they had either kept him or gotten more for him. Starting cornerback probably won’t be an issue for the Dolphins this season, but after losing Davis, they’ll still be plagued with the same depth issues they had last season, the ones that Marshall was brought in to help with.

Nolan Carroll is now their #3 cornerback. He wasn’t very good last season as their #4 cornerback, allowing 16 completions on 30 attempts (53.3%) for 239 yards (8.0 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 1 penalty. At first glance, they appear to have won this trade, but like the Colts, they’re also taking a risk and hoping that Davis won’t prove to be worth the risk for the Colts. However, I think they are the winner of this trade right now.

Grade: B

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Tennessee Titans extend CB Jason McCourty

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Titans

The Titans are taking a risk giving McCourty this 5 year, 43 million dollar deal with 20 million guaranteed. McCourty was actually thrown on more frequently than any cornerback in the league last year, being thrown on once every 4.6 coverage snaps. However, this was because opposing quarterbacks feared throwing on Cortland Finnegan, the opposite cornerback and the Titans’ #1 cornerback. Finnegan was thrown on once every 7.6 coverage snaps, which was the 8th best rate in the NFL.

However, McCourty held up very well being thrown on that much. He allowed 71 completions on 117 attempts (60.7%) for 802 yards (6.9 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes and committing 2 penalties. He also graded out as ProFootballFocus’ best cornerback against the run because he ranked 4th at his position with a run stop rate of 3.9% and 4th at his position in run snap tackles, while missing only 1.

For his total efforts, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked cornerback. Having an elite cornerback like Cortland Finnegan is obviously very valuable, but he would have been less valuable if opposing quarterbacks could just had success picking on the other cornerback. McCourty was picked on often, but did not allow quarterbacks to have a lot of success and was a big part of a Titans pass defense that ranked 4th in the league in YPA allowed (6.4 YPA), despite a pass rush that ranked 31st in the league in sacks (28) and 31st in the league in pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 quarterback hits + .75 quarterback pressures/total pass rush snaps).

McCourty also played pretty well in 2010 in a more limited role as the 2009 6th round pick, allowing 31 completions on 52 attempts (59.6%) for 287 yards (5.5 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 3 penalties. However, McCourty is still only a one year wonder as he’s only been a full time starter for 1 season (he made just 6 starts in 2010) and he’s never been a full-time #1 cornerback and covered opponent’s #1 receivers because the Titans always had Cortland Finnegan to take care of that (I say full-time because Finnegan also functioned as the Titans’ slot cornerback last year and would move inside in 3-cornerback sets, often leaving McCourty to cover the opponent’s #1 wide receiver, assuming that receiver didn’t move into the slot as well).

For that reason, in a normal scenario, he wouldn’t seem to deserve this kind of money as someone as a 1 year wonder above average #2 cornerback. This is elite #1 cornerback money. He only got 7 million over 5 years less in maximum money than Cortland Finnegan got from the Rams this offseason and 4 million less in guaranteed money (Finnegan’s deal was 5 years, 50 million with 24 million guaranteed).

However, this isn’t quite a normal scenario. With Finnegan gone, McCourty will become the #1 cornerback this year. He’s talented enough and has some experience covering #1 cornerbacks (albeit only in certain scenarios) so he definitely could break out as an elite #1 cornerback this year and shed the one year wonder label at the same time.

If he had done that, he would have commanded upwards of 50 million dollars over 5 years on the open market. The cornerback franchise tag is one of the most expensive in the league (tied for 2nd highest at 10.6 million this season) so that wouldn’t have been much of a cheaper option for the Titans and they can’t really afford to lose their #1 cornerback two offseasons in a row. The Titans are taking a chance that McCourty can emerge into that type of player this season, but they really believe in him and he definitely could make this deal look like a relative bargain.

Grade: B

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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New England Patriots extend DT Kyle Love

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Patriots

The Patriots essentially bought out Kyle Love’s exclusive rights year and restricted free agency year by giving him this 2 year, 3.09 million dollar deal. Love, a 2010 undrafted free agent, was set to make $540,000 this season and somewhere between 1-2 million in 2013 under a restricted free agent tender, so the Patriots are probably giving him more money than he ordinarily would have made, without getting him under team control for an extra year.

It’s tough to figure out what the Patriots were trying to accomplish with this deal, especially with someone like Love, a solid run stuffer and a versatility rotational player, but a one dimensional player who doesn’t do anything in terms of rushing the passer. He had just 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures on 384 pass rush snaps last season, including playoffs (5.0%). Unless he has a major breakout year this year, I don’t get the purpose of this deal, but he’s not overpaid or anything.

Grade: B

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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St. Louis Rams trade CB Josh Gordy to Indianapolis Colts

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Colts, Offseason Moves 2012, Rams

Trade for Colts: Needing cornerback depth having only Jerraud Powers, Justin King, and Cassius Vaughn at cornerback, the Colts sent an undisclosed late round pick to St. Louis for Josh Gordy. Gordy played 12 games, including 9 starts, for an injury plagued Rams secondary last season, but struggled, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 96th ranked cornerback out of 109, allowing 27 completions on 42 attempts (64.3%) for 387 yards (9.2 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 2 passes and committing 1 penalty. He was their worst rated cornerback against the run. However, they almost had to make some sort of move because of how much they lack depth at cornerback.

Grade: B

Trade for Rams: Gordy played a big role for the Rams last season, but he didn’t play well and with Bradley Fletcher coming back from injury and Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins coming in, Gordy would have been their 4th cornerback at best this season. It’s surprising they were able to get anything for him.

Grade: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Seattle Seahawks trade MLB Barrett Ruud to New Orleans Saints

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Saints, Seahawks

Trade for Saints: The Saints obviously felt they needed added depth at linebacker. David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton have suffered knee and ankle injuries respectively and their statuses for week 1 are up in the air, while Chris Chamberlain tore his ACL and will be put on IR. However, Ruud, once one of the better linebackers in the league, has had his career decimated by injuries and has been one of the worst linebackers in the league over the past 2 seasons.

In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 49th ranked middle linebacker out of 50, starting 16 games for the Buccaneers, and in 2011, he was their 48th ranked middle linebacker out of 51 and was benched midseason for Colin McCarthy, after starting the first 8 games of the season. This offseason, he signed in Seattle for a minimum contract and lost his starting job very early in the offseason to a mere 2nd round rookie, Bobby Wagner. He comes very cheap for the Saints, an undisclosed draft pick and a veteran’s minimum salary, but he won’t provide anything positive for this team. The fact that they had to give up anything at all for him is ridiculous.

Grade: C

Trade for Seahawks: Ruud wasn’t much use to the Seahawks because he couldn’t give carve out even a situational role behind a rookie. I’m surprised they were able to get anything for him.

Grade: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Houston Texans extend OT Duane Brown

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Texans

After years of being an average left tackle, 2008 1st round pick Duane Brown finally showed why the Texans used that 1st round pick on him last year, making all 18 of the Texans’ starts en route to an eventual loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional round. Brown, impressively, was the only offensive tackle in the league to make more than 6 starts and not allow a single sack and Brown did it in 18 starts.

Sacks don’t tell the whole story, but Brown also only allowed 4 quarterback hits and 23 quarterback pressures in 18 games and ranked 8th at his position in pass blocking efficiency and 3rd at his position overall on ProFootballFocus. And it’s not like he was protecting quarterbacks who had a knack for getting the ball out quick and avoiding sacks. He started the season protecting one of those, Matt Schaub, but Schaub got hurt and Texans’ quarterbacks overall took a sack on 33 of their 167 pressured snaps, good for a very middle of the pack 19.8%. There’s no doubt that Brown was an elite blindside protector last season.

In an ideal world, the Texans would have made able to make him prove it again. However, the Texans are not in that ideal situation because they need the franchise tag for Matt Schaub, who they are rightfully making prove he can stay healthy. The Texans wouldn’t have had the luxury to franchise Brown if he has another elite season in 2012 and would risk losing an incredibly valuable player on the open market. Left tackle is arguably the 2nd most valuable position in football and, for that reason, you almost never see a franchise left tackle available on the open market. It’s almost as rare as seeing a franchise quarterback on the open market.

Besides, Brown’s extension seems to reflect that he hasn’t been a perennially elite player yet. It’s not like they gave him a contract similar to the perennially elite Joe Thomas (8 years, 92 million, with 44 million guaranteed). Brown’s extension is for 6 years, 53.4 million with 22.08 million guaranteed and tacked on to a 2.082 million dollar salary for the 2012 season. That’s totally reasonable, especially when you considered that a significantly inferior offensive tackle, Ryan Clady, recently turned down 5 years, 50 million from the Broncos. Clady has allowed 20 sacks, 18 quarterback hits, and 120 quarterback pressures in the last 4 seasons, while struggling as a run blocker, and was ProFootballFocus’ 62nd ranked offensive tackle out of 73 last season.

Clady, Brown, Jake Long, and Branden Albert were all part of a strong 2008 NFL Draft left tackle class, all of whom have their rookie contracts expiring this season. Brown was the first to sign an extension and may end up being the most inexpensive of the bunch, especially if Albert continues his strong play from 2011. Long and Clady will both almost definitely get bigger contracts than Brown, especially since Clady will have the benefit of Peyton Manning making him look good this season. Brown is not quite as perennially proven as Long, but he outplayed all 3 of those players last season and he’s definitelyworth more than both Clady and Albert.

With Brown under contract, the Texans will now turn their focus to Connor Barwin as they try to lock up what might be the most talented free agent class of any team in the league. Schaub will not get an extension before the season as the team is rightfully trying to make him prove he can stay healthy. If he can do that, he should be able to lead this team to a very successful season and would be well worth the very expensive quarterback franchise tag (16.1 million in 2012) and the top-5 quarterback contract that will follow.

Grade: A

Green Bay Packers extend G TJ Lang

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Packers

I don’t normally criticize things the Packers do, but this really seems like the Packers are buying high. Lang only has one year of starting experience and it’s not like he was an elite guard or anything last year. Making 15 starts, including playoffs, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 19th ranked guard. He’s better in pass protection, where he ranked 6th at his position, allowing just 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 9 quarterback pressures, but he struggled as a run blocker and he committed 7 penalties.

Obviously, pass protection is more important on an offense like the Packers’ than run blocking is, but it’s important to know that he’s a one dimensional player and not an elite player, never mind that he’s only got one year of starting experience. Last year at this time, he was fighting for a starting job as a career backup as 2009 4th round pick out of Eastern Michigan.

The Packers didn’t give him a ton of money, tacking on 20.8 million over 4 years to the 1.26 million he was owed in the final year of his rookie year in 2012. However, it seems like he probably would have accepted the same sort of offer next offseason, when the Packers would have had 2 years of starting tape on him to more accurately evaluate him.

If they had given him this contract next offseason after another solid year as a starter, it would have been a reasonable deal, but they’re buying high here with him. This isn’t like the extension they gave Josh Sitton last offseason. Sitton was coming off a season in which he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ #1 guard and the year before that, he was their #7 rated guard. He was very reasonable paid at 33.75 million over 5 years.

Grade: B

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Carolina Panthers extend RB Jonathan Stewart

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Panthers

Between the Panthers’ 5 year extension to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers have committed a combined 43.5 million guaranteed to two different running backs, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, in the last 2 offseason. Last offseason, Williams got 5 years, 43 million with 21 million guaranteed and Jonathan Stewart now has received 5 years, 36.5 million with 22.5 million guaranteed in an extension, heading into a contract year.

Both are talented backs capable of being #1 backs, but that’s way too much money to commit to any one position other than quarterback. It makes no sense to essentially pay 7.3 million and 8.6 million per year respectively and commit 22.5 million and 21 million respectively to two players who will split carries at not even that important of a position

That’s especially true for the Panthers since Cam Newton is essentially their goal line back, gets about a 3rd of their carries, and is the guy who opens things up on the ground and allows both backs to average 5.4 YPC like they did last season. Stewart and Williams combined for just 297 carries last season. That’s not nearly worth the kind of money they’re paying them in what’s becoming less and less a running league.

However, I already bashed the Panthers for giving DeAngelo Williams that ridiculous extension last offseason, essentially giving him the kind of money that LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, and Arian Foster got this offseason even though he’s older than those two (already heading into his age 29 season), less talented, less durable, and splits carries.

The Panthers’ extension to Stewart is actually pretty well deserved as he heads into his age 25 season. This extension will take him through his age 30 season. He’s more than capable of carrying the load if given the opportunity. In 2009, his only real chance to be a lead back, he rushed for 1133 yards and 10 touchdowns on 221 carries, including 749 yards and 6 touchdowns on 134 carries in the final 8 games of the season, when a broken down Williams missed 3 games and managed just 349 yards on 67 carries and didn’t score. Also, while he has a rep for being injury prone, Stewart has only missed 2 games in 4 seasons. It is fair, however, fair to question if his durability would be the same if he were getting more carries.

Since the Panthers were very backed up against the cap this offseason, they figure to be even more backed up against it next offseason after this extension, so they could try to trade DeAngelo Williams, but I don’t think a lot of teams are going to want to take on his contract at his age. Cutting him, meanwhile, would lead to a 4.85 million dollar cap hit, which wouldn’t really help them out cap wise. These two deals will put them in a very bad cap situation for at least one offseason and restrict their ability to upgrade other parts of the team, which really need at coming off a 6-10 season.

They should have just let Williams go last offseason, made Williams the lead back and found a complimentary back. If they had done that, this extension would have made sense (assuming he proved he could carry the load without getting hurt), but they didn’t, so it’s a bit head scratching, but I don’t completely hate it, even if it is a ton of guaranteed money to commit to someone who has never carried the ball more than 221 times in a season. I mostly just hate the Williams extension even more. For reference, here’s my grade of the Williams signing from last offseason.

Grade: C

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Indianapolis Colts trade CB Kevin Thomas and a 7th round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for MLB Moise Fukou and MLB Greg Lloyd

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Colts, Eagles, Offseason Moves 2012

Trade for Indianapolis: The Colts needed middle linebacker depth after losing AJ Edds to a torn ACL earlier  this week, so they acquired Greg Lloyd and Moise Fukou from the Eagles. However, neither of these guys ever play and the Colts had to give up Kevin Thomas, which depletes their depth at cornerback even more. Thomas wasn’t very good last season, but he was a 2010 3rd round pick and he competing for the starting job with Justin King.

Now King will be given the starting job, which is bad because he was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated cornerback last season. They also have no depth at the position right now. Their top 3 cornerbacks will be Jerraud Powers, Justin King, and Cassius Vaughn this season. That’s going to be a dream for opposing quarterbacks.

It doesn’t make sense to give up on a 2010 3rd round pick and deplete your depth at an important position like cornerback just for two scarcely used linebackers. Linebacker is not nearly as important of a position and neither of these guys have any experience in a 3-4. They also surrendered a 7th round pick in the trade. Fukou and Lloyd might not have been worth a 7th round pick alone. You can find guys like that still available in free agency or on anyone’s practice squad.

Grade: C

Trade for Philadelphia: Neither of the guys they gave up were going to have any impact this season. In fact, they were both on the roster bubble. Thomas isn’t going to have much of an impact either, but it doesn’t hurt to have a little bit more cornerback depth and Thomas still has some upside as a 2010 3rd round pick, despite missing 2010 with injuries and struggling in 2011. They also picked up a 7th round pick. That’s not bad. They won this deal.

Grade: A

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St. Louis Rams extend DE Chris Long

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Rams

Chris Long was due 10.31 million in the final year of his rookie deal, after going 2nd overall in the 2008 NFL Draft. This extension adds an extra 4 years, 50 million to the existing deal to essentially make it a 5 year, 60 million dollar contract, with 37 million guaranteed. Long is one of the rare picks that panned out in St. Louis under the old regime.

He doesn’t stop the run well, but he leads the NFL in quarterback hits/pressures over the next 2 years with 140, along with 21 sacks. Over the past two years, he has a sack/hit/pressure on 14.7% of his pass rush snaps, one of the best rates in the league. He’s a perfect fit for Jeff Fisher’s wide nine scheme as well, so the Rams did well to lock up him through his age 31 season in 2016.

This deal also frees up the franchise tag for James Laurinaitis next offseason, should they need it, though they are also working on an extension with him. On top of that, it undoubtedly clears up a good chunk of cap space as Long’s cap number was set to be 18.1 million this year. The Rams now have the cap room to go after Mike Wallace, should he become available and should the Rams decide to pursue him.

Grade: A

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