Packers

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)

The Cowboys pulled an impressive home upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, winning 28-14. Ordinarily, teams struggle after a home upset victory, as teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2012. One of the reasons for that is home upset wins tend to move future lines significantly and that’s the case in this game, as the Cowboys went from 6.5 point underdogs on the early line last week to now 4.5 point underdogs. Typically, I like to bet against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. However, I don’t think this line is unreasonable at 4.5 at all, as the Cowboys have been one of the best teams in the league thus far this season and showed it with a statement win over a capable Cincinnati team last week.

The Cowboys are 4-1, legitimately a few plays away from being 5-0 (their only loss came by 1 week 1), and rank 9th in first down percentage differential. Green Bay, who ranks 6th in that metric, is the toughest team the Cowboys have faced thus far, but close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I like their chances of keeping it close and covering this 4.5 point spread. Worst case scenario, if the Cowboys are down 10 or 11 late, I like their chances of pulling off a backdoor cover.

The Packers are also in a tough spot, as they have to turn around and play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 50-75 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday night game. The Packers used to have a big advantage in Lambeau Field, going 36-23 ATS at home from 2008-2014, but they are just 4-5-1 ATS at home in the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, the Cowboys typically travel well, thanks to a national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.87 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.72 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They’re also 20-12 ATS as road underdogs over that time period. I’d put money on the Cowboys at 4.5, but I’d hold off at 4. The Cowboys are the pick though.

Green Bay Packers 27 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

This one I’m torn on. On one hand, the Giants are 62-42 ATS as road underdogs since 2004 and they’re in their 2nd of two road games, which is even better. Teams are 131-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 231-233 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 331-451 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.81 points per game.

On the other hand, the Packers are one of the best teams in the league, legitimate 7 point home favorites and are expected to be legitimate 6+ point home favorites again next week against the Dallas Cowboys, a comparable team to the Giants. Big home favorites tend to cover before being big home favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business if they don’t have an upcoming distraction. Teams are 86-49 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again. On top of that, the Packers used to have strong homefield advantage, going 36-23 ATS in Lambeau Field from 2008-2014, but they’re just 4-4-1 ATS since the start of last season. I’m taking the points, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Green Bay Packers 33 New York Giants 27

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 3 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)

I’ve seen a couple articles this week asking what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. That doesn’t make sense to me. The Packers opened their season with two road games and played pretty well in both games all things considering, beating a capable Jacksonville team week 1 and then barely losing last week against a good Minnesota team. Despite splitting the two games, they actually moved the chains better than their opponents in both games and only lost in Minnesota because of a +2 turnover margin.

Turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent week-to-week and the Packers tend be better at winning the turnover battle than most, so I don’t see that as a long-term problem. They’re unlikely to be as good offensively as they were in 2014, when they finished 1st in rate of moving the chains (RMC), but they figure to finish significantly better than last season, when they finished 16th in that statistic, especially as Jordy Nelson gets back into game shape after missing all of last season with a torn ACL and especially as more home games come up on the schedule.

Now back at home, they have a very good chance to get back on track. They went just 4-4 ATS at home last season, but went 36-23 ATS in Lambeau from 2008 to 2014. Even if they don’t recapture that old home magic, it definitely helps that they’re going into a bye. Big favorites tend to take care of business going into a bye, as home favorites of 6 or more are 61-22 ATS before a bye since 2002. Their offense especially has a good chance to get back on track this week, as Detroit is missing two of their top three defensive players, linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, with injury. That leaves their defense very vulnerable. This is the easiest matchup the Packers have had thus far. Jacksonville’s defense wasn’t good, but that was a road game and the Packers still moved the chains at a respectable 75.00% rate.

As long as this line is 7 or fewer, this is a money play, though I’d be more hesitant at 7.5, as Detroit has a strong offense and I’d be worried about Detroit driving down the field down two touchdowns late for the backdoor cover, especially with the Packers missing some guys on defense as well (though not anyone as important as Ansah or Levy). The backdoor cover possibility also scares me off of making this my Pick of the Week, as does the fact that the Packers are playing a week 3 home opener, which historically doesn’t go well. Teams are just 24-46 ATS in a week 3 home opener since 1989. The Packers have had to travel a lot already and that could give the Lions an advantage, but their upcoming bye should keep them focused on this week and I like their chances of putting up a big number on Detroit’s injury plagued defense.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week for me. Minnesota is still a solid team despite losing Teddy Bridgewater, but they are also missing defensive starters Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd and quarterback Sam Bradford is going into his first start with the team, after being acquired just two weeks ago. If this line was a field goal, I’d take the Vikings just because 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but this line is at 2.5 (2 in many places). The Packers are missing top cornerback Sam Shields with a concussion, but are still the significant better team, so I like their chances of winning by at least a field goal in Minnesota, but not enough to be at all confident in them.

Green Bay Packers 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

The Packers are normally a much better team at home than on the road, but I actually like them on the road this week, as 5.5 point favorites in Jacksonville. Jacksonville is improved, but is likely still at least a year away and they could have easily been at least 7-point underdogs here. I think people might forget how good Green Bay’s offense was in 2014. They’re unlikely to be that good again, but all of their skill position talent is healthy, including the Aaron Rodgers/Jordy Nelson combination that was so deadly 2 years ago. Their offensive line isn’t nearly as good as 2014, given the ridiculous release of long-time guard Josh Sitton at final cuts and injuries to both center Corey Linsley and left tackle David Bakhtiari, though the latter might still play, after being listed as questionable. However, this line is still a little too low overall. It’s a no confidence pick, but I expect the Packers to win by at least a touchdown.

Green Bay Packers 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Packers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers was on top of the quarterback world following the 2014 season, as Rodgers completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 8.43 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, en route to his 2nd career MVP award. Rodgers finished the season #1 among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus and the Packers boasted the league’s best offense, finishing #1 in rate of moving the chains. 2015 was a different story, however. Rodgers completed just 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.68 YPA (both career lows), 31 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions and the Packers finished just 16th in rate of moving the chains.

What happened? Well, part of that is Rodgers himself, as he fell from #1 to #12 among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, the lowest he’s been since 2008. Part of it was his supporting cast, which was close to perfect in 2014. The Packers didn’t have any big off-season losses on offense between 2014 and 2015, but they had the 3rd fewest offensive adjusted games lost to injury in 2014, which did not continue in 2015, as they finished 15th. Rodgers didn’t miss a game, but there were rumors that he was playing hurt, which would seem to be substantiated by the fact that Rodgers had knee surgery in January after the season ended. He’s going into his age 33 season, but he’s a good bet to bounce back and a be a top-5 quarterback again in 2015.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Easily the Packers’ biggest offensive injury last season happened before the season even began, when #1 wide receiver Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the pre-season and missed the entire season. Nelson combined for 183 catches for 2833 yards and 21 touchdowns between 2013 and 2014, finishing #2 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in both seasons. He was missed immensely and his return is the equivalent of signing a high level free agent. He may have lost a step, going into his age 31 season and coming off of a serious injury, but 90% of Jordy Nelson is still a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL.

In Nelson’s absence, 2014 2nd round pick Davante Adams was horrible, forcing the Packers to start veteran James Jones for most of the season; Jones is an ex-Packer who was brought in after being a final cut of the Giants. He didn’t have a bad year, but his best ability at this point in his career is his chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers decided against bringing him back as a free agent, ahead of his age 32 season in 2016, and he was eventually signed by the Chargers, where he is no lock to make the final roster.

Randall Cobb led Packer receivers in snaps played last season, but he too had a down year in 2015, grading out just about average. He’s been better in the past, finishing 11th among wide receivers in 2012 and 9th in 2014 (with a season lost to a broken leg in between) and a shoulder injury is likely to blame for his relative struggles in 2015. Like Rodgers, he has a good chance to have a bounce back year this year. His star isn’t shining quite as bright now as it was last off-season, when he signed a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal, but he’s still one of the best #2 receivers in the league and forms a fearsome duo with Jordy Nelson when both are healthy.

The #3 receiver role is still up for grabs. The Packers were expecting Davante Adams to be that guy by now, but he’s been so bad through 2 years in the league that he might not even make the final roster. He finished the 2014 season 99th among 110 eligible wide receivers on 738 snaps and then ended last year 109th out of 121 eligible on 763 snaps. The Packers used a 5th round pick on Trevor Davis out of the University of California and still have last year’s 3rd round pick Ty Montgomery (a running back/wide receiver/returner combo) and they could definitely keep Adams off the final roster, but neither are real candidates for the #3 job; Davis is too raw and Montgomery is not a traditional wide receiver.

Instead, it’ll be between Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis competing with Adams for the #3 receiver job. Janis was a 7th rounder in 2014 and flashed on 176 snaps last season, including a 7/145/2 performance on 35 pass snaps in their playoff loss to the Cardinals. Abbrederis was a 5th round pick in 2014, but Janis is probably the favorite, as both are inexperienced and Janis has outplayed Abbrederis is limited action through 2 years. Adams, the highest drafted receiver from that Packers’ 2014 draft, is probably the worst of the three players right now, but he still has a chance to turn that around.

One thing the Packers have never really had in the Aaron Rodgers era is a good pass catching tight end. They still don’t have one, but they do have a pair of solid pass catchers, after signing Jared Cook as a free agent. Cook is coming off the worst year of his career, leading to his release by the Rams, but was a solid tight end in the first 6 seasons of his career, prior to 2015, including a 2014 season in which he was Pro Football Focus 16th ranked tight end. Still only going into his age 29 season, he was a solid buy low signing on a 1-year deal by the Packers this off-season.

Cook will compete with incumbent starter Richard Rodgers for playing time, though it’s possible both see a similar amount of snaps. Rodgers was the better of the two players last season, finishing 17th among tight ends on Pro Football Focus, after struggling mightily on 491 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2014. The one issue with Cook and Rodgers is they are similar players and neither one of them is much of a run blocker. With Cook coming in, Nelson coming back, and Cobb likely bouncing back, it’s an improved receiving corps overall on a passing offense that should be improved overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Along with Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb, another player who had a disappointing season in 2015 is running back Eddie Lacy. After finishing in the top-5 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in the first two years of his career in 2013 and 2014, totalling 2317 yards and 20 touchdowns on 530 carries (4.37 YPC), while adding 77 catches for 684 yards and another 4 scores through the air, Lacy rushed for just 758 yards and 3 touchdowns on 187 carries (4.05 YPC), added just 20 catches for 188 yards and another 2 touchdowns through the air, and fell to 20th among running backs on Pro Football Focus in 2015.

That’s not horrible and the fact that that’s considered a down year for him is just a reminder of how good he is when he’s right, but he was very frustrating for the Packers coaching staff because he had really good games (4 games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry) and really bad games (7 games averaging 3.0 or fewer yards per carry). With Lacy struggling, backup James Starks had almost as many touches as Lacy, but wasn’t any more effective, rushing for 601 yards and 2 touchdowns on 148 carries (4.06 YPC) and adding 43 catches for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. Starks is one of the league’s better backup running backs, but the Packers obviously would prefer Eddie Lacy return to form. He dealt with a combination of weight and injury issues (likely related) in 2015, but is reportedly in much better shape, after spending all off-season working out. If the Packers can be closer to 2014 than 2015 on offense, that should add a couple wins to this team’s total and put them right at the top among the league’s best teams.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Packers’ offense should be better with Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson, and Cobb all returning close to 2014 form, the Packers suffered a significant loss this off-season when they shockingly made starting left guard Josh Sitton a final cut. Sitton was going into his age 30 season, but was a top-8 guard on Pro Football Focus in 7 straight seasons, only missed 2 games with injury over that time period, and was owed just 6.85 million in 2016. It’s a huge loss for this team and a move I simply don’t understand.

The Packers used a second round pick on Indiana offensive tackle Jason Spriggs and could start him at right tackle as a rookie, moving projected starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga inside to left guard, even though he’s never played there in the NFL. Bulaga has also always had injury issues, missing 32 games with injury in 6 years in the league (including 4 last season) and not playing in all 16 games since his rookie year. He’s a solid right tackle when healthy though, grading out above average in 3 of his last 4 seasons (excluding a 2013 season where he didn’t play a snap because of a torn ACL). He maxed out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 and finished 34th among offensive tackles last season. It’s almost a guarantee he’ll miss a couple games with injury again though and it remains to be seen how he plays at guard.

In addition to losing Sitton, the Packers will also be without center Corey Linsley for the first 6 games of the season at least, thanks to a hamstring injury. Linsley is a great player when healthy, making 29 starts at center in 2 years in the league and finishing 5th and 10th at the position in 2014 and 2015 respectively, greatly exceeding his draft slot in the 5th round. He’ll be missed, but the Packers have enough talent returning at least close to form around him to make up for it, even without Sitton. He should also be back at some point this season and the Packers have a solid replacement in JC Tretter, a 2013 4th round pick who flashed on 373 snaps in his first career action at center. The collegiate offensive tackle is still unproven, but should be an adequate replacement to start the season.

Left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle round out this offensive line. A 4th rounder in 2013, Bakhtiari struggled in the first 2 seasons of his career, grading out 62nd among 76 eligible offensive tackles in 2013 and then 53rd out of 84 eligible in 2014, but leaped all the way to 26th in a breakout 3rd year in the league in 2015. He should be a solid left tackle for the Packers again this season, though it’s worth noting he’s a one-year wonder. Lang, meanwhile, has graded out above average in all 5 of those seasons, including 15th, 3rd, and 5th place finishes among guards on Pro Football Focus in the past 3 seasons respectively. It’s still a strong offensive line, but losing Sitton hurts, as does Linsley’s injury.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

While essentially everyone returns on offense, the Packers did have a few losses on defense this off-season, including defensive lineman BJ Raji. Raji, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like a promising young defensive end following the 2012 season, in which he finished 7th among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus. In fact, the Packers offered him a 5-year, 40 million dollar extension that he turned down ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. That would prove to be a mistake though.

Raji’s play severely declined in 2013, as he finished dead last among defensive tackles, which forced him to take a cheap one-year deal back in Green Bay. Raji then missed the entire 2014 season with a torn biceps, forcing him to take another 1-year deal with the Packers. Raji seemed healthy in 2015, playing in 15 games and, though he graded out below average, he wasn’t horrible either. He played 444 snaps in the regular season, 2nd most on the Packers’ defensive line, playing both nose tackle and defensive end. However, Raji decided to retire this off-season, ahead of his age 30 season.

The Packers replaced him with another 1st round defensive lineman, taking Kenny Clark out of UCLA. The 6-3 314 pound Clark isn’t as big as Raji, but he too can play both defensive end and nose tackle. The same is true of veteran Letroy Guion, who played alright on 330 snaps last season. Guion has plenty of starting experience (51 starts in 8 seasons in the NFL), but is better suited for a solely rotational role, as he has graded out below average in 6 of those 8 NFL seasons.

Mike Daniels is easily the Packers’ best defensive lineman, as he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the entire NFL. A 2012 4th round pick, Daniels emerged as a starter in 2013 and has finished 6th, 8th, and 3rd among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in the past 3 seasons respectively. The Packers re-signed him for 42 million over 4 years in December. Considering Fletcher Cox, a comparable player, just got 103 million over 6 years from the Eagles, while Malik Jackson, another comparable player, got 90 million over 6 years from the Jaguars, it’s clear the Packers got good value when they re-signed Daniels.

Datone Jones was 3rd on the defensive line in snaps played last season with 364, but he’s expected to move from defensive end to outside linebacker this season. The Packers brought in another defensive lineman through the draft, taking Dean Lowry, a defensive end out of Northwestern, in the 4th round. Lowry could see immediate action in a rotational role, while 3rd year player Mike Pennel should see an increased role this season. Pennel, a 2014 undrafted free agent, flashed on 287 snaps last season, though he will miss the first 4 games of the season after failing a drug test, a big blow to the Packers defensive line depth. There are some promising young players on this defensive line, including 1st round pick Kenny Clark, but it’s an uninspiring group outside of Daniels.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As I mentioned, Datone Jones will be moving to outside linebacker this season. A 2013 1st round pick, Jones was undersized as a 3-4 defensive end at 6-4 285 and was never able to carve out more than a sub package role at the position. The 364 snaps he played last season were a career high and about 75% of them came against pass plays. He’s graded out above average in the last 2 seasons on limited snaps though, flashing as a pass rusher, so he could be a good fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker in base packages, if he can get his weight down into the 270-275 pound range.

Also moving to outside linebacker this season is Clay Matthews, who spent most of last season at middle linebacker. It’s far from an unfamiliar position for Matthews though, as the 2009 1st round pick spent the first 6 seasons of his career at outside linebacker prior to last season and was once one of the league’s best at the position. He played middle linebacker largely out of desperation last season and is expected to play only outside linebacker this season. It’s a wise move, as Matthews struggled out of position last season, particularly against the run.

He’s far more valuable to the Packers as an outside linebacker. Matthews was a top-6 3-4 outside linebacker in each of the first four seasons of his career, from 2009-2012. He’s going into his age 30 season and probably isn’t quite the same player anymore, after an injury plagued 2013 season, a 2014 season in which he fell to 18th among 3-4 outside linebackers, and a 2015 season where he finished 40th among 97 eligible linebackers at middle linebacker. Still, a return to his natural position should be good for him and the whole Packers’ defense.

Matthews will start opposite Julius Peppers. Peppers is the active all-time leader in sacks with 136 (9th all-time) and a likely future Hall-of-Famer, but he’s going into his age 36 season, making him one of the league’s oldest defensive players. That’s somewhat concerning. Peppers looked done following a 2013 season in which he finished 40th among 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends and subsequently got cut by the Bears. Peppers bounced back in his first year in Green Bay, finishing 7th among 3-4 outside linebackers, but he fell much closer to the middle of the pack in 2015. His ability to play at a high level going forward is in doubt at this point.

Fortunately, the Packers have great overall depth at the position. I already mentioned Datone Jones, but Kyler Fackrell and Nick Perry will also be in the mix for snaps. Fackrell was a 3rd round pick by the Packers in the 2016 NFL draft, while Perry is a former 1st round pick (2012), who was brought back on a one-year deal this off-season. Perry has been a bust through 4 years in the league, as evidenced by the fact that the Packers declined his 5th year option. Instead, they brought him back for his 5th season for substantially less, 5 million. Injuries have always been an issue for him, as he’s missed 18 games in 4 seasons in the league.

Perry played just 351 snaps last season and has never played more than 374 snaps in a season. He hasn’t been a bad player, grading out above average in 2 of 4 seasons, including last season (he finished tied with Peppers as Pro Football Focus 58th ranked edge defender). If he can stay healthy, he should be able to push for 500 snaps this season, but that’s a big if. With so much depth at outside linebacker, expect guys like Julius Peppers and Datone Jones who can rush the passer from the interior in sub packages to do so with some regularity, which would allow the Packers to essentially get 3 or 4 of their base package outside linebackers on the field at the same time in sub packages.

The reason Matthews can move back to outside linebacker this season is because the Packers middle linebacker depth is a little better this season. It’s still a problem position, but there isn’t the need to play Matthews out of position there anymore. The Packers used a 4th round pick on Stanford linebacker Blake Martinez and have 2015’s 4th round pick Jake Ryan possibly ready for a bigger role. The Packers also use a lot of dime packages and frequently play a 3rd safety down closer to the line of scrimmage instead of a 2nd middle linebacker in sub packages.

That being said, neither Blake Martinez nor Jake Ryan is a good option. Rookies, particularly ones drafted in the 4th round, are tough to rely on, as good as Martinez has reportedly looked in practice. Ryan, meanwhile, was just a 4th rounder last year and struggled on 260 snaps as a rookie. It’s a deeper and improved group of middle linebackers this season, but still not a great group. The Packers’ outside linebackers are easily the strength of the Packers’ linebacking corps.

Grade: C+

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Packers frequently use 3 safeties in sub packages, rather than 2 middle linebackers. Those three safeties last season were Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and Micah Hyde and all 3 return for 2016. Burnett and Clinton-DIx start at the position, with Hyde serving in a situational role. Burnett and Clinton-Dix were arguably the best safety duo in the NFL last season, finishing 4th and 8th respectively among safeties on Pro Football Focus.

It was easily the best season of either of their careers, but neither of them were bad players prior. Clinton-Dix was a 1st round pick in 2014 and played alright as a rookie. Now he looks like one of the best young safeties in the NFL. Burnett is more experienced, making 71 starts over the past 5 seasons. Though he had never finished higher than 16th among safeties prior to last season, he still has graded out above average in 4 of those 5 seasons and could easily have another strong year in 2016. I wouldn’t be surprised if Clinton-Dix and Burnett both finished as top-10 safeties again this year. Hyde, meanwhile, is not nearly as good, but has played 1800 snaps (22 starts) in 3 seasons in the league (since being drafted in the 5th round in 2013) and has been an overall decent player. He’s especially good in coverage, where the Packers need him most.

Though the Packers love using 6 defensive backs in sub packages, it does hurt the Packers’ depth immensely that they lost cornerback Casey Hayward to the Chargers in free agency. Hayward made 11 starts last season and finished 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. With Hayward out of the mix, Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall, their 1st and 2nd round picks respectively in the 2015 NFL draft, will have to take on larger roles; those will be 2 of their top-3 cornerbacks along with veteran Sam Shields.

Fortunately, both looked good as rookies, particularly Rollins, who finished as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked cornerback on 323 snaps. Randall graded out slightly below average, but could be better in his 2nd year in the league. He’s expected to start opposite Shields with Rollins as the slot cornerback, but that could change this off-season. Shields is also a solid cornerback, finishing last season 25th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s missed 17 games with injury in 6 years in the league and has never played all 16 games in a season, but has finished in the top-30 among cornerbacks 3 times in those 6 seasons.

The Packers also like 3rd year player Demetri Goodson, a 6th round pick in 2014. He’s expected to be their 4th cornerback and is probably part of the reason why they were comfortable letting Hayward walk. Goodson has barely played in 2 seasons in the league though, so he’s a huge projection to any sort of larger role. That being said, he’s probably not bad depth. The biggest concern is that he, like defensive lineman Mike Pennell, is suspended for the first 4 weeks of the season, after violating the league’s PED policy. Even without Hayward, it’s still a strong secondary.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

Despite the bizarre decision to move on from long-time starting guard Josh Sitton this off-season, the Packers return 8 of 11 starters (9 when Linsley gets healthy) from a 2014 offense that was the best in the league and could easily have a bounce back year and be one of the best offenses in the league again, led by perennial MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers. The defense isn’t nearly as good as the offense, but they have plenty of talent on that side of the ball as well, making this one of the league’s more talented teams. The Packers surprisingly lost the division to the Minnesota Vikings last season, but, with Teddy Bridgewater out for the season, the Packers have a great chance to reclaim the division crown in 2016.

Prediction: 11-5 1st in NFC North

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Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 NFC Divisional Pick

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Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-3)

The Cardinals clobbered the Packers 38-8 at home just 3 weeks ago back in week 16, so people don’t seem to be giving the Packers much of a chance. However, as the Vikings showed last week, even though a team blew you out recently, you still have a good chance to beat them in the playoffs. Teams are 30-15 ATS since 2001 in the playoffs in a same season, same site, non-divisional rematch against a team that beat them previously, including 15-7 ATS if the previous margin was 10+ points. Like the Vikings, the Packers are healthier this time around, getting left tackle David Bakhtiari back from a 3 game absence and cornerback Sam Shields back from a 4 game absence. Plus, I think it’s important to not get too caught up in a team’s best or worst performance of the season. The last time these two teams played, it was the Cardinals’ best and the Packers’ worst.

That being said, I think the Cardinals were the best team in the NFL last season, as they ranked 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. The Packers, meanwhile, were down in 10th. However, the Cardinals are missing defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, who was having an All-Pro caliber season before tearing his ACL and going down for the season week 15. That’s definitely going to matter at some point. The Packers, meanwhile, are as healthy as they’ve been all season and coming off a strong performance in Washington last week. Home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round. Seven and a half points is a lot, so I’ll take it easily.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Green Bay Packers 24

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins: 2015 NFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Wild Card Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7)

The Redskins come out of the NFC East, arguably the weakest division in football, but they’ve turned into a pretty good team. They rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among playoff teams, but they’re hot right now and have been since getting both tight end Jordan Reed and wide receiver DeSean Jackson back from injury. Their passing game has been on fire since then. They’ve moved the chains at a 72.96% rate in their last 9 games with those two healthy, as opposed to 71.30% in their previous 7 games.

The Packers are probably still the better team, ranking 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re the ones who are banged up now. Cornerback Sam Shields will miss his 4th straight game with a concussion, left tackle David Bakhtiari is a gametime decision at best, after missing the last 2 games with injury, and defensive end Datone Jones could also be out with a neck injury. I’m not that confident in Washington, but I have this as a field goal game, as about 1 in 6 games are, so I’ll take Washington as 1 point favorites for a low confidence pick.

Washington Redskins 23 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: Washington -1

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-5)

The Packers were favored by 5.5 over the Vikings last week on the early line, but now are favored by just 3, a significant line movement considering both 3 and 4 are key numbers. While about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, close to 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so only having to lay a field goal with the Packers now is a significant difference. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense.

It might seem like the line movement was warranted, considering the Packers lost 38-8 in Arizona last week and the Vikings won 49-17 at home against the Giants, but it’s important not to get too excited about a team off their best performance of the season and also to not get too down on a team off their worst performance of the season. In fact, since 2002, teams are 20-11 ATS off of a loss of 24 or more when their opponent is coming off of a loss of 24 or more. It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense to contrarian bettors.

The Vikings have played better in recent weeks, blowing out the Giants last week, winning by 21 over a decent Bears team the week before, and coming close to beating the Cardinals in Arizona the week before that, but it’s important not to forget that before that, they got blown out at home twice in three weeks by the Seahawks and these Packers. The Vikings’ offense has been better in recent weeks and the defense got key players back last week in outside linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Harrison Smith, but they’ll continue to be without defensive tackle Linval Joseph, a significant absence, and they’re only barely better than their 14th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests.

The Packers are probably a little bit worse than their 7th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests, as left tackle David Bahktiari is highly questionable after missing last week and not practicing all week. He was severely missed last week. He could still try to give it a go on a bum ankle and it helps that this is the Sunday Night game, but he won’t be 100% even if he plays. However, the Packers do get cornerback Sam Shields back and are overall better than they looked last week.

It also really helps the Packers that they are at home this week. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 31-14-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 40-6 straight up, with an absurd +625 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.59 points per game. The Packers have been favored by at least 3.5 points in each of their last 16 home games (10-6 ATS), so we’re getting the Packers really cheap here at home. That’s too good to pass on. Despite what happened last week, the Packers are still the better of these two teams.

Green Bay Packers 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (12-2)

The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, despite having a couple losses. In those 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team.

The Panthers obviously are the only undefeated team left in the NFL, but I think the Cardinals have played better. They’re 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, while the Panthers are 6-0, accounting for nearly half of their wins, and the Cardinals have a better point differential (+176 vs. +171), despite a worse turnover margin (+10 vs. +19). Week 14’s Thursday Night game against the Vikings was actually the first of the season in which the Cardinals lost the rate of moving chains battle and they did so just barely (77.42% to 78.13%), in a field goal victory. They’ve won that battle in all 13 games they’ve played this season on more than 4 days rest.

The Packers, meanwhile, rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, a bigger difference than what’s suggested by this line. The Cardinals do have a big upcoming game, with the Seahawks coming to town next week, but so do the Packers, as they host the Vikings next week, a game that will decide the NFC North unless the Vikings lose at home to the Giants and the Packers win here (the Packers can clinch the North this weekend if that happens). This is also a big game for both of these teams as a Green Bay victory puts them in position to get the #2 seed and a first round bye if they beat the Vikings next week and the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks. From this angle, it’s a wash, as both teams should be equally focused for this one.

Ordinarily, I’d be all over the Cardinals as 4.5 point favorites here, as they’ve been one of the most underrated teams in the NFL this season, but they lost defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, for the season last week, a potentially crippling blow to this defense. I’m still taking the Cardinals, especially since the Packers will be missing cornerback Sam Shields and left tackle David Bakhtiari, but I’m much more worried about the possibility of a backdoor cover now, especially since about 3 in 10 games are decided by fewer than 4 points.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: Low

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