Packers

Green Bay Packers sign OLB Julius Peppers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

This contract is officially 26 million over 3 years (with another 4 million available through incentives), which seems pretty weird for a player going into his age 34 season. However, this deal has no guaranteed money after the first year, in which he’ll make 8.5 million. The Packers can easily cut him after the season, avoiding cash payments of 9.5 million in 2015, and actually save 7 million on the cap. 3.5 million (1 million in cash and a third of the 7.5 million dollar signing bonus) is the cap hit for 2014, while the other 5 million would hit the cap in 2015 if he were released (as opposed to 12 million, 9.5 in cash, 2.5 million in dead money, if he were to be on the 2015 roster). It’s essentially a 1-year, 8.5 million dollar deal which the Packers can spread on the cap over 2 seasons.

That being said, this is still way too much to pay for Julius Peppers. I like the fit of Peppers in Green Bay. Peppers is aging and no longer able to play as many snaps as he once did. He’ll rotate snaps with Nick Perry and, to a lesser extent, Clay Matthews at rush linebacker and provide needed depth at a position where Perry and Matthews have missed a combined 24 games over the past 2 seasons combined. However, Peppers is not worth 8.5 million a year anymore.

A once dominant edge rusher, who graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2008-2012 and in the top-10 among 4-3 defensive end in every season from 2008-2011, Peppers has graded out 18th and 36th among 4-3 defensive ends over the last 2 seasons respectively. Last season, he actually graded out below average and that 36th place finish came out of just 52 eligible at the position.

That’s undoubtedly due to his age and he’s unlikely to improve going forward. He’s also unfamiliar with the 3-4, after playing in a 4-3 his whole career. That’s a lesser concern that the age, especially if the Packers go to more of a hybrid scheme this year, but still a concern. Combine that with his age and this signing doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Remember that John Abraham, arguably a better player than Peppers when he was released and hit the open market in a similar stage in his career last off-season, got just 4.6 million over 2 years on a deal he signed last July. I’m shocked Peppers got this much money and got signed in March.

Grade: C-

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Oakland Raiders sign WR James Jones

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

James Jones seemed like a prime candidate to get overpaid this off-season, coming over from Green Bay’s explosive passing offense and as a member of a wide receiver class in free agency that lacked difference makers after Eric Decker and Golden Tate. He has been a featured wide receiver in an explosive pass offense for the past 2 seasons and hasn’t really done much with it, totaling 784 receiving yards on 664 routes run in 2012 and 817 receiving yards on 544 routes run in 2013.

The 14 touchdowns he caught in 2012 are an outlier as he’s totaled 23 touchdowns in his other 6 seasons in the league combined. He’s a marginal starting receiver that the Packers made look better than he was and now he’s going into his age 30 season. Credit the market for not falling into the trap and to the Raiders for scooping him up at a reasonable rate, 11.3 million over 3 years. It’s not a fantastic value or anything, but Jones is a passable wide receiver and under 4 million yearly is about right for him.

Grade: B+

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Green Bay Packers re-sign CB Sam Shields

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

A lot of cornerbacks have been overpaid this off-season, Aqib Talib (57 million over 6 years), Vontae Davis (39 million over 4 years), and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (35 million over 5 years). However, I’m shocked that Sam Shields was also overpaid (39 million over 4 years) for two reasons. One, the Packers usually do a great job of not overpaying guys in free agency as Ted Thompson is one of the best in the business. Two, unlike the aforementioned three cornerbacks, Shields didn’t have his best season in his contract year.

He’s definitely flashed in the past, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked cornerback this past season. I would have thought they could have gotten him cheaper as a result. I’ve held off on grading this deal until now because there was a chance that the increased salary cap meant we might see a lot of head scratching deals this off-season and I like to grade on a curve and grade moves against each other. That hasn’t been the case. When you compare this deal to the deals received by Brent Grimes (32 million over 4 years) and Alterraun Verner (26.5 million over 4 years), it easily looks like one of the worst moves of the off-season.

Sam Shields has definitely flashed in the past, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked cornerback in 2012 and dominating down the stretch as an undrafted rookie in 2010 on the Packers’ Super Bowl run. However, he also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 92nd ranked cornerback in 2011 and then there was last year. He’s also never played a full 16 game season, missing 11 games in 4 seasons, including 6 games missed in his dominant 2012 season. That’s a very inconsistent history.

There’s no way he deserves to be the NFL’s 3rd highest paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary (9.75 million). The only reason this deal isn’t a D or worse in terms of my grade is because they only guaranteed 15 million and can cut him after the first season if he struggles, though at a cap loss of 250K. However, even a 1-year, 15 million dollar deal is too much for Shields and I highly doubt they’ll be bold enough to cut their losses after this season if the situation presents itself.

Grade: C-

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Green Bay Packers 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Packers, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

Every year since the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2010, we’ve been saying that if the Packers can stay healthy, they’re going to be tough to beat. They had the most adjusted games lost in 2012 and even in 2010, they had the 3rd most adjusted games lost, despite winning the Super Bowl (they were 17th in 2011, which was when they started 13-0). They’ll probably be very high in adjusted games lost in 2013 after the numbers come out as injuries derailed their defense.

The biggest injury though was to quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They’ve been able to survive all sorts of other injuries over the past few years, to win the Super Bowl in 2010, despite a 10-6 regular season, to go 11-5 and win a playoff game in 2012, but they couldn’t live without Aaron Rodgers this season. They went 6-2 in regular season games he played and 2-5-1 in the other 8 games, with awful quarterback play behind Aaron Rodgers until ex-backup Matt Flynn returned to stabilize things somewhat.

However, as we say every year, the Packers will be very, very good if they can stay healthy in 2014. Adjusted games lost tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and if the Packers can have an average amount of injuries and keep Rodgers out there all 16 games, they have the talent to win 11, 12, 13 games again and challenge for the Super Bowl. They have a few things to clean up defensively, but that unit is a lot different when it’s healthy.

Positional Needs

Middle Linebacker

AJ Hawk has stuck around with the Packers through rumors that he’d be a cap casualty for several straight off-seasons, often restructuring or taking a pay cut. However, this might be the end of the line for him. Hawk was awful last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 48th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible and now he’s going into his age 30 season so he’s probably not getting any better any time soon. The Packers can save 1.9 million on the cap by cutting him. They should do that and find an upgrade. Opposite him at middle linebacker, Brad Jones struggled in his 2nd season as a starter in 2013, after getting a fairly lucrative contract the off-season before. There’s been talk he could be a cap casualty, though he should be safe for another season. Either way, middle linebacker is a big problem position for the Packers.

Safety

MD Jennings and Jerron McMillan were supposed to compete for the starting safety job opposite Morgan Burnett going into 2013. McMillan was the week 1 starter, but he was so bad he didn’t even finish the season on the team. He played 196 snaps and would have been Pro Football Focus’ 10th worst ranked safety if he were eligible, despite his very limited playing time. No safety played fewer snaps and graded out worse than him. Jennings took over as the starter, but he wasn’t a whole lot better, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 67th ranked safety out of 86 eligible. They need an upgrade at that position.

Tight End

Jermichael Finley is a free agent this off-season and he’s also a serious health risk going forward after needing neck fusion surgery. He’s also never really lived up to his promise, struggling with drops, missing 26 games in 6 seasons, and never surpassing 61 catches or 767 receiving yards despite playing with Aaron Rodgers. Andrew Quarless filled in as the starter for him and he’s not that good either. He’s a mediocre blocker who has never surpassed 32 catches for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns despite leading the team in snaps played by a tight end in 2 of the past 4 seasons because of injuries to Finley. They’ll probably look at tight ends early in the draft.

Outside Linebacker

Clay Matthews and Nick Perry can form a fierce pass rush duo when they’re both healthy, but Nick Perry has missed 15 of 32 games since being drafted in the first round in 2012, while Clay Matthews has also missed 9 games over the past two seasons. Their primary reserves at the position in 2013 were Mike Neal, a converted defensive lineman, Andy Mulumba, an undrafted rookie, and Nate Palmer, a 6th round rookie. They all predictably struggled when counted on. Mike Neal was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and Mulumba was their 7th worst, despite playing just 304 snaps. Palmer, meanwhile, didn’t qualify because he only played 200 snaps, but he would have been their 8th worst if he had, despite his limited playing time. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse.

Offensive Tackle

The Packers drafted Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod in the first round in 2010 and 2011 to be their bookend tackles of the future, but they played a combined 6 snaps this season, all by Sherrod, who was playing for the first time since 2011 and has played a combined 121 snaps in 3 seasons. Bulaga will be back from injury next season, his contract year, but Sherrod might never turn it around. Don Barclay and David Bakhtiari were the starters this season and both struggled.

Cornerback

Sam Shields is a free agent, while Tramon Williams could be cap casualty going into his age 31 contract year. That would leave them thin at the position if both left. They should use a mid to late round pick for depth purposes on a developmental cornerback.

Defensive Tackle

BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett are both free agents this off-season. Mike Daniels is one starter on the defensive line at 5-technique defensive end and 2013 1st round pick Datone Jones will have a bigger role in 2014, but they’d really hurt for depth if both Raji and Pickett left and they’d also have no one to play on the nose. Pickett is also going into his age 35 season and nearing the end of the line.

Center

Evan Dietrich-Smith is a free agent. If he’s not retained, they’ll need to find a new starting center.

Key Free Agents

CB Sam Shields

Sam Shields burst onto the scene as an undrafted rookie in 2010, serving a huge role in the Packers’ Super Bowl season when injuries hit. He struggled in 2011, but graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked cornerback in 2012, despite missing 6 games with injury and then he was about average in 2013. Overall, he’s an above average cornerback who will get a lucrative contract on the open market.

C Evan Dietrich-Smith

Dietrich-Smith took over as the starting center from Jeff Saturday late in the 2012 season and played solid in limited action and then graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked center in 2013 in his first full season as a starter. He’s still just a one year wonder, but he should be paid pretty well for a center on the open market. My guess is the Packers will try hard to retain him.

WR James Jones

James Jones has been a featured wide receiver in an explosive pass offense for the past 2 seasons and hasn’t really done much with it, totaling 784 receiving yards on 664 routes run in 2012 and 817 receiving yards on 544 routes run in 2013. The 14 touchdowns he caught in 2012 are an outlier as he’s totaled 23 touchdowns in his other 6 seasons in the league combined. The Packers seem prepared to move on from him with Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin as their top 3 receivers and Jones will undoubtedly be overpaid by a receiver needy team on the open market. He’s a marginal starting receiver that the Packers made look better than he was.

DE BJ Raji

BJ Raji has been very inconsistent in his career in 4 years as a starter. He was very good in 2010, especially in the playoffs on their Super Bowl run, but struggled mightily in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked defensive tackle that season. In 2012, he was better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end and ended up turning down a contract that would have paid him 8 million dollars yearly. However, the 2009 1st round pick struggled in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 defensive end. He’s unlikely to get nearly that much money on the open market now, but he’ll probably still be overpaid. He’s an overrated player. He can play all 3 defensive line positions in a 3-4 and he could probably play 4-3 defensive tackle, but he’s way too inconsistent.

RB James Starks

James Starks has definitely flashed, but he’s been plagued by the same thing that plagued him in college and what dropped him down to the 6th round of the draft in 2010, injuries. He’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 133 carries in a season and he’s missed 29 of 64 possible games in 4 seasons. However, he’s rushed for 1427 yards and 5 touchdowns on 322 carries, a solid 4.4 yards per carry average, along with 45 catches for 341 yards and another score, and he really carved out a niche as Eddie Lacy’s backup in 2013, averaging 5.5 yards per carry on 89 carries and “only” missing 3 games. He’ll sign on somewhere as a backup, perhaps back in Green Bay.

FB John Kuhn

John Kuhn has been a solid fullback in Green Bay for years, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season except one since 2008, maxing out as their 3rd ranked fullback in 2008 and again in 2013, perfect timing in his contract year. Fullbacks don’t usually get paid much, but the Packers will still probably try to bring him back on a fairly lucrative deal for a fullback because of his versatility as a runner, pass catcher, and blocker.

DT Ryan Pickett

Ryan Pickett has been a quality run stopping rotational defensive lineman for the Packers since 2006, grading out about average on Pro Football Focus since 2008. However, he’s going into his age 35 season so he’s near the end of the line. He’ll probably be looking at one year deals this off-season if he wants to continue playing.

TE Jermichael Finley

Jermichael Finley is a free agent this off-season and he’s also a serious health risk going forward after needing neck fusion surgery. He’s also never really lived up to his promise, struggling with drops, missing 26 games in 6 seasons, and never surpassing 61 catches or 767 receiving yards despite playing with Aaron Rodgers. He’ll have to settle for one year prove it deals on the open market this off-season.

TE Andrew Quarless

Quarless is a mediocre blocker who has never surpassed 32 catches for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns despite leading the team in snaps played by a tight end in 2 of the past 4 seasons because of injuries to Jermichael Finley. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 44th ranked tight end out of 64 eligible in 2013. He’ll have to settle for short-term deals as a depth tight end somewhere.

OLB Mike Neal

Mike Neal was a 2nd round pick of the Packers’ in 2010 and played a total of 489 snaps from 2010-2012, but the Packers liked what he brought as a situational interior pass rusher and decided to convert him to rush linebacker, where they had a need, to get him more space to rush. That turned out to be a disaster as the 6-3 280 pounder fit like a square peg in a round hole there, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and leading the team in snaps played by a rush linebacker thanks to injuries to Clay Matthews and Nick Perry. Neal will have a hard time finding a fit this off-season as a free agent.

QB Matt Flynn

Matt Flynn turned two strong starts in place of an injured Aaron Rodgers into a fairly lucrative contract with the Seahawks, but he lost his starting job in the pre-season to then unproven 3rd round rookie Russell Wilson and got sent to Oakland the next season. In Oakland, he lost his starting job in the pre-season to Terrelle Pryor and then cut got mid-season in favor of the terrible duo of Pryor and Matt McGloin. He then went to Buffalo, where he never played, before ending up back in Green Bay as Rodgers’ backup again, when Rodgers was hurt. Flynn wasn’t great, but he was definitely better than anyone else they trotted out in Rodgers’ absence, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.90 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He’s proven to struggle mightily outside of Green Bay’s system, but the Packers should still bring him back on a cheap deal to backup Rodgers because they don’t have anyone else better.

Cap Casualty Candidates

MLB AJ Hawk

AJ Hawk has stuck around with the Packers through rumors that he’d be a cap casualty for several straight seasons, often restructuring or taking a pay cut. However, this might be the end of the line for him. Hawk was awful last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 48th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible and now he’s going into his age 30 season so he’s probably not getting any better any time soon. The Packers can save 1.9 million on the cap by cutting him.

CB Jarrett Bush

Jarrett Bush is pretty much a non-factor defensively, playing 119 snaps in 2013 and 631 snaps over the past 4 seasons combined. He’s good on special teams, but the Packers could still cut him to save 1.7 million on the cap. That doesn’t seem worth it for a special teamer.

CB Tramon Williams

Tramon Williams is going into his age 31 season and not worth the 7.5 million the Packers could save on the cap and in cash by cutting him ahead of his contract year in 2014. However, he’s also probably the Packers’ best cornerback, especially if they can’t retain Sam Shields, so they may still keep him around, even at that rate, without a real cap problem. Extending him to bring his cap number down is another option.

MLB Brad Jones

Brad Jones struggled in his 2nd season as a starter in 2013, after getting a fairly lucrative contract the off-season before, worth 11.75 million over 3 seasons. There’s been talk he could be a cap casualty, though he should be safe for another season. He earned that contract by grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked middle linebacker in 2012, though he’s still a one year wonder. Cutting him, in the unlikely case that they do, would save them 2.925 million in cash and 1.925 million on the cap.

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: 2013 NFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, 49ers, Packers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

Aaron Rodgers is back for the Packers and that obviously makes a big difference. He started out a little shaky against Chicago, understandable because he missed almost 2 months with injury, throwing 2 early picks, but bounced back to finish 25 of 39 for 318 yards with 2 touchdowns. With another week of practice with the first team and a full game under his belt, Rodgers will only be sharper this week.

With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Eddie Lacy, and a now healthy Randall Cobb making plays on offense with actually a very decent offensive line, the Packers are near impossible to stop offensively. Because of Lacy’s emergence, this might be the best offensive supporting cast Rodgers has ever had. On the season, in the 8 games Rodgers has started and finished, the Packers moved the chains at a 77.78% rate. Even when Rodgers was out of the lineup, the Packers had a decent offense because of all the supporting talent, moving the chains at an above average 72.33% rate, but with Rodgers back the offense is simply on another level. Only Denver and San Diego move the chains at a higher rate than that aforementioned 77.78% rate on the season.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has always played well against the 49ers since Jim Harbaugh took over the 49ers in 2011, even though the 49ers have consistently had one of the NFL’s top defenses. In 3 games, he’s completed 77 of 122 (63.1%), 893 yards (7.36 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The 49ers once again have a very strong defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.24% rate, but once again they should only be able to slow down Rodgers and the Packers, not stop them.

However, the 49ers have won the last 3 matchups because they’ve been able to move the ball at will on the Packers’ defense. Defense is once again an issue for the Packers, as they are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74.60% rate and are without top player Clay Matthews. However, the 49ers’ offense has been inconsistent this year, moving the chains at a below average 70.35% rate. A few weeks ago, everyone expected them to move the ball all over an even worse Falcons’ defense at home in San Francisco and they disappointed. They could have a good game here, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion.

The 49ers have a rate of moving the chains differential of 3.11%, which is very solid, 9th in the NFL, but the Packers are right in that same area if you take that aforementioned 77.78% rate for their offense, with a differential of 3.17%. That suggests these two teams are roughly even, which I think is very reasonable. They played a close game week 1 that could have gone either way, depending on a call or two by the referees, and that was in San Francisco. The 49ers are 12-4 and the Packers are 6-2 with Rodgers. I think if you played 100 games between these two teams as they are currently constructed on a neutral field, we’d see a fairly even split with one team winning 50-55 of them.

In spite of that, the Packers are getting a field goal at home, which suggests that the 49ers are 6 points better, which doesn’t make sense to me, so getting that field goal with the Packers seems awfully attractive. The Packers have also been incredible at home over the past few years, as long as Aaron Rodgers has been under center. Rodgers is 21-8 ATS at home since 2010 and 26-3 straight up, with an absurd +412 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.21 points per game. This also happens to be the first time Rodgers has been a home underdog since week 10 of 2009, an upset win over the Cowboys. For what it’s worth, Aaron Rodgers is 2-1 ATS and straight up as a home underdog in his career as a starter.

Yet still, the public is all over the 49ers, as the biggest public lean of the week is on San Francisco. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to go against them whenever it makes sense, which it definitely does this week. I understand why the public is all over the 49ers, given that they’ve beaten the Packers in 3 straight matchups and only need to win by a field goal or more. The public seems to think they have the Packers’ number.

I don’t buy that though, because there’s nothing to really support the common narrative that some teams just have another team’s number. Since 1989, teams are 303-326 ATS against teams that they have beaten and covered against in 3+ straight matchups. If you shrink the sample size down to teams that are meeting for the 4th time in 2 seasons, that record is 81-90 ATS.

If you shrink it even further to non-divisional foes, there’s only one instance in the last 25 years of a team even having a chance to win and cover against a non-divisional opponent for the 4th time in 2 years. The Eagles and the Buccaneers met in Philadelphia in the 2002 NFC Championship after the Eagles had beaten the Buccaneers by scores of 17-13, 31-9, and 20-10 over the past 2 seasons. The Buccaneers came in as 3.5 point underdogs against an Eagles team that “had their number”, but ended up winning 27-10 and advanced to the Super Bowl, where they eventually won.

That’s just one case study and even those other numbers alone aren’t enough to take the 49ers, but it certainly doesn’t provide any evidence that teams can “have another team’s number” and that would seem to be the primary reason why the public is on San Francisco. Even in matchups where teams are completely coin flip evenly matched up, there’s a 1 and 8 chance that one team will beat the other 3 straight times. This seems like a trap line and the public is falling for it. I’m taking the field goal with a dominant home team in an even matchup.

Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 27 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) at Chicago Bears (8-7)

Aaron Rodgers is back! The Packers are saved! Right? Well that seems to be what everyone is thinking. The public pulse is that the Packers are now de facto NFC North Champions now that Mike McCarthy has said the words “Aaron Rodgers will be our starting quarterback” and the Bears are screwed. Reports say public bettors are literally lining up to take the Packers as mere 3 point favorites here. Public bettors always lose money in the long run though. There’s a reason why the odds makers set this line at 3. This feels like a trap bet.

Aaron Rodgers certainly upgrades their offense. Before he got hurt, the Packers were moving the chains at a 77.12% rate through 7 games, which would have ranked 3rd in the NFL right now if it had been sustained through 15 games, only behind Denver and San Diego. I have no doubt that if Rodgers had never gotten hurt, the Packers would have one of the NFL’s premier offenses once again right now. However, I have some concern that Rodgers won’t be 100% in his first game back.

The injury reportedly isn’t giving him any real pain when he throws and he’s been practicing well for a couple of weeks, but practice is one thing. It’s another thing entirely to be thrown back into game action after 2 months off. There could be some rust as he seeks to get back to game speed. He also has had limited practice with the first team, so there could be some chemistry issues. There is also some concern that Rodgers’ teammates give less than 100% knowing that their “savior” Aaron Rodgers is back.

The bigger concern, however, is this Packer defense. That’s something Rodgers can’t control and they’re one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74.42% rate. Injuries have hit them badly there as well and things aren’t going to get better this week. In fact, they could get worse as Clay Matthews is expected out for this one after re-breaking his thumb and also the defense could feel they don’t have to give 100% with savior Aaron Rodgers back. If you take their opponents’ rate of moving the chains and subtract it from that 77.12% number from earlier, that’s a differential of 2.70% and that’s an absolute best case scenario.

The Bears, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 75.56% rate, as opposed to 76.54%, a differential of -0.98% that ranks 19th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be around a pick em or 1 point in favor of Green Bay, instead of 3, and, again that’s an absolute best case scenario. The Packers could easily move the ball all over Chicago’s putrid defense, but the Bears could do the same to the Packers’ and they are the home team with the only quarterback starting in this game that has played in the last 2 or so months. Football Outsiders actually backs this up as their playoff odds model has this game at a 50/50 toss up, so getting that field goal with Chicago could be valuable.

The Bears’ putrid defense let up 54 points to the Eagles last week in a 54-11 loss, but that actually makes it more likely they’ll cover this week. It’s counterintuitive, but teams are 45-23 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 2002, including 20-6 ATS as home underdog. It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I’ve already gotten into undervalued, but overlooked and embarrassed could definitely be in play as well. The Packers could overlook the “lowly” Bears with Rodgers back, while the Bears could give 110% to put last week behind them against a team that now has their starting quarterback back.

Of course, this is essentially a play-in game so both teams could be at 100%, which would nullify some of that and work to the Packers’ advantage, but getting field goal protection with Chicago does seem like the right call right now. I definitely wish we were getting more than a field goal though, especially since Jay Cutler has lost to Aaron Rodgers 7 out of 8 times, but there once was a time that Joe Flacco couldn’t beat Ben Roethlisberger. That changed. This could too. I’m tentatively going with the Bears for a low confidence pick, but if the line increases or I become more confident I could make this a medium confidence pick later in the week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 30

Pick against spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Packers, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (7-6-1)

Aaron Rodgers is out for this one and, given that, it’s a little absurd that the Packers are favorites here at home. The Steelers are better than their 6-8 record. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. In DVOA, they rank 13th. They are moving the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 70.64% for their opponents, a differential of 0.95% that ranks 13th in the NFL.

The Packers are moving the chains at a 74.28% rate, as opposed to 74.32% for their opponents, a differential of -0.04% that ranks 15th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be at about 2, which is right around where it is (2.5), but, remember, much of what’s buoying the Packers’ rank in rate of moving the chains differential was done when Aaron Rodgers was the starter. Given that it’ll be Matt Flynn here this week, it’s absurd that they’re favored. The Steelers might have the better defense and offense in this one and they’re getting points.

Matt Flynn’s numbers since joining the Packers are pretty good, as he’s completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. However, you have to consider that in 3 of the 4 games he’s played, he faced 3 of the worst defenses in the NFL (Minnesota, Atlanta, Dallas). You can’t ignore his performance against Detroit, when he completed 10 of 20 for 139 yards and a pick in a 40-10 loss on Thanksgiving. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s at least comparable to Detroit’s. Flynn won’t have nearly the success he’s had against cupcake defenses.

Speaking of cupcake defenses, Matt Flynn shredded a Dallas defense that is worst in the NFL last week, in an upset comeback win by 1 point. They could suffer a hangover effect after such a big win. Home favorites are 24-40 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 points as road underdogs of 3 or more. On top of that, Pittsburgh is in a great spot with no distractions left on their schedule, as they only face Cleveland in Pittsburgh next week. Teams are 116-86 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites since 2002. The Packers are going to have a hard time beating a superior, focused opponent at home, especially if they’re hung over after last week, and the fact that we’re getting points with Pittsburgh just sweetens the deal. I have a good deal of confidence in the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Green Bay Packers 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out for this one, so the line has been posted. The Packers have opened as 7 point underdogs. You check see all of the NFL lines at https://www.bwin.com/. However, even though Aaron Rodgers is out, that doesn’t mean the Packers will have trouble moving the ball. The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a ridiculous 77.61% rate and they will be without stud middle linebacker Sean Lee with an injury.

Eddie Lacy should be able to run all over them and make life easy for Matt Flynn, who was much better last week against an equally bad Atlanta defense, completing 24 of 32 for 258 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He’s the best quarterback the Packers have had since Aaron Rodgers went down and he’s played pretty well, excluding a Detroit game where he didn’t have the playbook down and had to play on short rest on the road after his teammates played essentially a 5 quarter game the week before.

Because of the Cowboys’ terrible defense, they rank pretty far down in rate of moving the chains differential. With their defense allowing opponents to move the chains at 77.61%, their offense, as good as it is, can’t keep up, moving the chains at a 74.13% rate, a differential of -3.38% that ranks 24th in the NFL. They are only 7-6 because of a +12 turnover margin and a 70.0% rate of recovering fumbles that helps fuel it. Both of those things are unsustainable. Their opponents have 63 more first downs and 20 fewer punts on the season.

The Packers obviously aren’t as good as their 16th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential would suggest because so much of the positive was done with Aaron Rodgers under center, but they still don’t deserve to be 7 point underdogs here. According to rate of moving the chains differential, the only team that deserves to be 7 point underdogs in Dallas is Jacksonville. I don’t think the Packers are that bad.

The Cowboys also have had a lot of trouble as big home favorites over the past few years, going 5-12 ATS at home as favorites of 6 or more since new Cowboys Stadium opened in 2009. Most recently, they struggled with Oakland at home on Thanksgiving, trailing early before winning by a touchdown as 9 point favorites. If the Cowboys can’t beat the Raiders at home on a short week by more than a touchdown, they don’t have a good chance of beating the Packers at home on a normal week. In fact, their last win by more than a touchdown game way back in week 7.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Cowboys have no distractions, with only a trip to Washington on deck. The Cowboys could easily be favorites of more than a field goal in Washington next week and teams are 63-37 ATS before being road favorites of more than a field goal since 2012. The Packers may or may not be in a good spot here. Usually, non-divisional road underdogs cover before being non-divisional home favorites, going 100-65 ATS since 2008. The Packers host the Steelers next week and would definitely be home favorites if Rodgers were to return and might be home favorites either way. Still, it’s not as sure of a thing as the Cowboys’ situational trend. At the end of the day though, I’m taking the points and hoping for a close game.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay +7

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Packers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)

There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, while the underdog has no distractions coming up considering they will be favorites next. This game does fit that trend. The Packers are home favorites here and will probably be road underdogs in Dallas next week, while the Falcons will be home favorites for the Redskins. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, there’s also a chance that Aaron Rodgers returns next week, in which case the Packers would probably be favored in Dallas next week, which would make that trend irrelevant. Given that, I actually like the Packers this week. They aren’t as bad as they looked last week, when they were playing on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters of football in a tie the week before. I’m not saying they’re a good team without Rodgers by any means. After all, they played Minnesota to a tie in Green Bay. However, they’re better than they looked last week. They have the most talented quarterback under center since Rodgers went down in Matt Flynn and he has now had more time with the play book. The Packers are well rested after that Thursday game and they should be the right side here. I’m not confident though.

Green Bay Packers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against spread: Green Bay -3.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 13 (-2)

Record: 5-6-1

I’m keeping the Packers here because Aaron Rodgers is expected back next week. They could easily win out against a schedule of Atlanta, @ Dallas, Pittsburgh, and @ Chicago. It probably wouldn’t get them into the playoffs, but this is a completely different team without Rodgers. Their performance without him alone should win him the MVP. They have one of the worst backup quarterback situations in the NFL, but they weren’t as bad as they looked against Detroit. That’s just what a team looks like 3 days removed from playing 5 quarters in a tie. They probably won’t make the playoffs this year in the loaded NFC even if they do win out, but they’ll be a serious bounce back candidate next year once everyone is healthy. They’ve had an absurd amount of injuries this season.

Week 12 Studs

RB Eddie Lacy

LG Josh Sitton

Week 12 Duds

RT Marshall Newhouse

SS Morgan Burnett

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