Packers

Green Bay Packers: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 14 (+1)

Record: 3-3

I’m not saying the Packers are the 13th best team in the league. They didn’t deserve to lose to Seattle or Indianapolis. However, they did and I’m doing this based on what record I think a given team will finish with. Every year, one team goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs and the Packers are essentially playing with a 2 game handicap in the loaded NFC (19-9 against AFC) because of those two losses. In order to make the playoffs in the NFC, you’re going to need at least 10 wins, maybe 11 to be safe and avoid any tiebreakers keeping you out. In order to go 10-6, they’ll need to finish 7-3 and in order to go 11-5, they’ll need to finish 8-2. That’s why they’re the most likely of the 4 teams who had a first round bye last year to miss the playoffs. They might not deserve to miss them, but they could anyway.

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 24 of 37 for 338 yards and 6 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 2 batted passes, 4 drops, 120.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 40 drop backs (1 scramble, 2 sacks, 4 of 6, 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away)

C Jeff Saturday: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 6 attempts

RT Bryan Bulaga: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 33 yards on 10 attempts

WR Jordy Nelson: Caught 9 passes for 121 yards and 3 touchdowns on 11 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 3.2 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Casey Hayward: Did not allow a catch on 4 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, no tackles

ROLB Clay Matthews: 3 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 penalty

Duds

TE Jermichael Finley: 2 catches for 12 yards on 4 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LOLB Erik Walden: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 assists

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Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Packers, Texans

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0)

I feel pretty much exactly the same way about this one as I did about San Francisco/NY Giants. With the favorite, we are getting line value and the opportunity to fade a public underdog. However, with the dog, we’re getting a team that normally does well in this situation. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differential is .7. Divide that by .15 and add 3 points for home field advantage and you get a “real” line of Houston -7.5, meaning we’re getting 4 points of line value with the hosts. In spite of that, Green Bay is a public dog because no one believes they’re as bad as their record. As much as I love betting against the public, I especially love betting against public dogs.

I want to talk about the Packers and their surprising 2-3 record. I don’t think they are as bad as their record would suggest. They’ve had bad luck between the replacement officials and the ChuckStrong train. They could be 4-1 right now. I also don’t think they’re as good as the public thinks and nearly as good as they’ve been over the past couple of years. Their major issues are offensively. Their offensive line is a mess. They can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers really does seem to miss Greg Jennings, who is out once again for this one. Without the offense they had last year, their defense, which actually has held up alright this year, needs to be relied on more and it’s still not an elite unit capable of that.

However, as I mentioned, we’re getting some good spots with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is 10-5 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a dog of 3+. He’s 13-9 ATS off a loss, but if you don’t including 2008, his first year as a starter, he’s 9-4 ATS. He’s also 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog off a loss as a favorite. If you include 2006 and 2007, the Packers’ first two years under Mike McCarthy, they are 5-0 ATS in that situation. Meanwhile, teams are 75-44 ATS as dogs before being favorites and the Packers go to St. Louis next week. I also worry about the impact of the loss of Brian Cushing on the Texans’ defense.

This one is actually tougher for me to pick than San Francisco/NY Giants because we aren’t getting as much line value with the hosts, but we’re also getting fewer points with the road team. There’s less of a chance for a cover if the Packers lose. If I did zero unit picks, this would be one, but I’m once again going with the hosts, like I did in San Francisco/NY Giants, for similar reasons. The combination of betting against a public dog and getting significant line value is too much.

The Packers will give this game everything, but so will the Texans, who won’t be sleewalking 2 weeks in a row. In fact, they were probably sleepwalking last week because they were more focused on this benchmark game than the Jets. Teams are 7-14 ATS before playing the Packers since their Super Bowl victory. Finally, I really believe the Packers will be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. There’s one every year and it’s hard to believe right now that San Francisco, Baltimore, or New England could be that team. A loss here, dropping them to 2-4 in a loaded NFC, would go a long way towards that end result.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers)

Sharp lean (15-9 or better in LV Hilton): GB 21 HOU 6

Final update: Sharps like Green Bay, but I’m still not sure.

Houston Texans 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Green Bay Packers: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 13 (-1)

Record: 2-3

You could argue they deserve to be 4-1, losing on the touchception in Seattle week 3 and then blowing a 21-3 lead in Indianapolis last week as they ran into the ChuckStrong train, but the fact is, this team is 2-3 and in a loaded NFC, that really hurts them. One team every year goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. Given how San Francisco, New England, and Baltimore are playing, Green Bay is by far the favorite to do so this year. Their even yards per play differential is hardly impressive and they might be a smart team to bet against going forward, especially if the odds makers continue to rate them on par with teams like Houston (they’re -3.5 in Houston this week).

Studs

LG TJ Ward: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 55 yards on 5 attempts

RG Josh Sitton: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 2 attempts

LT Marshall Newhouse: Allowed 1 sack on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 8 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown on 16 attempts, 5 pass deflections, 8 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Casey Hayward: Allowed 1 catch for 12 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

LOLB Erik Walden: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

MLB AJ Hawk: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 stops, was not thrown on

Duds

TE Jermichael Finley: Caught 3 passes for 11 yards on 5 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

WR Jordy Nelson: Caught 2 catches for 29 yards on 5 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LE Ryan Pickett: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE Jerel Worthy: 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Colts, Packers

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

Obviously, I can’t do this write up without talking about Chuck Pagano. You’ve probably heard the news, but if you haven’t, Pagano, an 11 year NFL assistant who got his first Head Coaching job this offseason as Head Coach of the Colts, was unfortunately diagnosed with a treatable form of leukemia  earlier this week, a few days before he celebrated his 52nd birthday on October 2nd. He has left the team in order to undergo treatment, including chemotherapy, and will hopefully make a speedy recovery. In his absence, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will be interim Head Coach. This is obviously a very unfortunately situation and one that will impact this team.

Earlier this week, I was torn on how it would impact them. They could have come out totally unprepared and get blown out or they could have come out and had the game of their lives in his honor. However, now I really am leaning towards the latter. They’re coming off a bye, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, plus the loss of Pagano as Head Coach is not as important as say losing Sean Payton. Pagano has been Head Coach of this team for 3 games and Arians calls the plays anyway. I think it’s much more likely this will have a positive effect on this team than a negative one, at least this week.

Speaking of that bye week, it couldn’t have come at a better time for the Colts. The Colts, one of my preseason underrated teams, really looked underwhelming before the bye, getting blown out by Chicago, barely beating Minnesota (although Minnesota has looked good, so maybe that is an impressive win), and then losing at home to Jacksonville in an absolutely abysmal defensive effort.

Injuries were a huge part of that, especially defensively, with cornerback Vontae Davis, rush linebacker Dwight Freeney, and middle linebacker Pat Angerer all being out before the bye. On a defense that lacked talent to begin with, that really hurt and the bye seems to have given them much needed rest. Freeney and Angerer are expected back, while Davis looks questionable after sitting out practice on Wednesday. With that trio back, or even just two-thids, they should be able to put up somewhat of a fight defensively and on the offensive side of the ball, don’t forget about Andrew Luck, who was looked like the real deal this year.

In spite of all of their injuries, the Colts rank just 24th in yards per play differential, which isn’t horrendous. That’s only .5 yards per play worse than the Packers, who seem to be out of sync this year. When their defensive effort is good, their offense is off and vice versa. An old gambling formula says divide the differential by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field to get the “real line”. That formula says this line should be -.5 in favor of the Packers, so we have a full 7 points of line value with the Colts. In spite of that, there’s a big public lean on the Colts and I love to bet against the public, especially on big leans.

Keep in mind, that “real line” is before you consider that the Colts are getting healthier. You can argue that the Packers are better than their yards per play differential would suggest, but either way, you’re going to find there’s some line value with the Colts. Green Bay would have to be a whole 1 yard per play better than where they’re at now for this line to be valid and that would tie them for 2nd with Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Dallas, and that’s before injury situation consideration. On top of that, home dogs of 7+ are 98-78 ATS since 2002. As long as I get touchdown protection, this is a significant bet on the Colts.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Indianapolis covers)

Sharps lean: GB 10 IND 5

Final update: Dropping a unit. The sharps don’t seem to like Indianapolis at all and Angerer and Davis will both miss this one and Dwight Freeney will be limited. Greg Jennings is out for Green Bay though.

Green Bay Packers 31 Indianapolis Colts 27

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7 (-105) 2 units

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Green Bay Packers: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 13 (+0)

Record: 2-2

I’ve still got the Packers here after their close home win over the Saints. Every year, one team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs and after all 4 of the candidates won last week, the Packers are still the favorite. It’s not that they’re not talented enough to make the playoffs. The NFC is just loaded and that bogus loss on the touchception could be a difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 31 of 41 for 319 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 4 drops, 107.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 42 drop backs (0 sacks, 1 scramble, 3 of 6, 1 touchdown, 1 drop)

LG TJ Lang: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 4 attempts

C Jeff Saturday: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

MLB DJ Smith: Allowed 3 catches for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

Duds

CB Sam Shields: Allowed 6 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE BJ Raji: Did not record a pressure on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 2 penalties

LOLB Erik Walden: Did not record a pressure on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

RE Jerel Worthy: 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Packers, Saints

New Orleans Saints (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Saints and Packers are a combined 1-5 three weeks in the season. Raise your hand if you saw that coming. I strangely see no hands. This is a huge, must win game for both teams, and given that we should expect huge performances from both quarterbacks. You know it’s really not sitting well with both of these quarterbacks that they are where they are right now. Aaron Rodgers has lost more games than he did all last regular season and Brees has lost the same amount.

Given that, it’s pretty tough to know what to expect from this game. However, I do think it’s more likely than Aaron Rodgers and company has a huge offensive game than Drew Brees and company. For one, Brees’ struggles are explainable. He’s without Head Coach Sean Payton and he looks eerily similar to the quarterback he was in San Diego, before his injury of course, and before meeting up with Sean Payton. Aaron Rodgers’ struggles are less explainable. Greg Jennings’ hasn’t been 100% so that may have something to do with it, but he should be healthier in this one.

More likely, it’s just a fluke and what better way to snap out of your slump than to face New Orleans’ 30th ranked passing defense which just made Matt Cassel look passable. They also struggle against the run, which is why they rank tied for 30th in the league in yards per play allowed. They just let Jamaal Charles go off on them and they rank 31st against the run, so the Packers will be able to establish Cedric Benson. Another possible explanation for Rodgers’ struggles is just the strength of schedule, playing San Francisco, Chicago, and Seattle all of whom have great defenses. The Saints have far from one, so expect a vintage Rodgers performance.

I’m not as sure that we’re getting a vintage Brees performance. Green Bay’s defense has actually been pretty solid this year after that opening day embarrassing, but strength of schedule is obviously a factor there. Alex Smith, Jay Cutler (on a Thursday Night), and Russell Wilson are much of a next, at least not compared to Drew Brees, but there’s no guarantee he’ll ever be able to overcome the loss of Payton and look like his 2009-2011 self. Ordinarily, I would just grab the points, especially since it’s a big line, because Drew Brees is 30-20 ATS as a dog, but this is obviously a very different circumstance. There’s no public lean either way so I’ll just take the hosts for a very small play.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New Orleans covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): NO 5 GB 2

Update: Sharps agree with me they have no clue what to think of this game. Only 7 of the sharps have this game in their top 5, least of any game. Part of me likes the Packers to bounce back much more than the Saints. Part of me just wants to grab the point, fade the public, and go with the slight sharps lean. I’m sticking with my original pick, but if I did 0 unit picks, this would be one of them.

Green Bay Packers 34 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Green Bay Packers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 1 (-12)

Record: 1-2

This is my shocker of the week. The Packers didn’t deserve to lose last week. But they still did. In a loaded NFC, that could be the difference between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs. One team every year goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. The NFC is the significantly superior conference this year, so it’s more likely that it’s going to be one of the NFC teams, unless one of the AFC teams is legitimately undeserving (I don’t think either Baltimore or New England is). In the NFC, however, legitimately deserving teams can miss the playoffs.

The Packers are a legitimately deserving team, but that might not be enough and they’re behind the 8-ball starting at 1-2. I think they’re more likely to miss the playoffs than the 49ers, who beat them head-to-head in Lambeau and who stand at 2-1 now in an easier division. The Packers and 49ers were the NFC’s 2 first round bye teams last year. The Packers also need to be worry about the fact that their offense has 4 touchdowns in 3 games and that Aaron Rodgers is 2-4 in his last 6, including playoffs.

Green Bay Packers

Studs

FS Charles Woodson: Did not allow a completion on 4 targets, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists

ROLB Clay Matthews: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 6 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Ryan Pickett: Did not record a pressure on 8 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops

Duds

RB Cedric Benson: Rushed for 45 yards (35 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 17 carries, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, 4 catches for 19 yards on 5 targets, 1 drop

RT Bryan Bulaga: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 8 quarterback pressures on 55 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 3 attempts

C Jeff Saturday: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback pressure on 55 pass block, 1 penalty, run blocked for 26 yards on 5 attempts

WR Greg Jennings: Caught 6 passes for 35 yards on 9 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

WR Jordy Nelson: Caught 2 passes for 19 yards on 3 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 8.0 YAC per catch

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 3 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackles

MLB DJ Smith: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 1 attempt, 5 solo tackles, 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 pass rush snaps

RE Jerel Worthy: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Packers unsure about Greg Jennings for Monday Night Football

stevenlourie News, Packers

The Packers were without Greg Jennings on Thursday Night Football with a groin injury and despite having 11 days between games, they are still unsure about the star receiver’s availability for Monday Night Football against the Seahawks. He’s been limited in practice all week, though, for what it’s worth, he says he’ll play, saying “It’s going to be something I’m going to have to push through right now. If I can get close to 100 percent, that’s all I’m looking for. I’m not looking to be 100 percent because that will never happen, ever, probably in my career. Ever.” The Packers have listed him as questionable.

At this point, it sounds more likely than not that he’ll be out there, but he will probably be limited and facing a tough Seattle defense, he’s less than an ideal fantasy option, especially since he does play on Monday Night Football. He doesn’t sound like a true game time decision, but if he’s a late scratch, you could be left without another option and he doesn’t have a true handcuff because in his absence, James Jones caught just 2 passes for -1 yards last week. Jones and Randall Cobb should continue to split snaps in his absence and cancel each other out in fantasy. Unless you have a startable option in that game (not a whole lot of those after Jordy Nelson, who should be in your lineup regardless), I’d say bench Jennings unless you absolutely have to start him.

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Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Packers, Seahawks

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

I love exploiting home/road differentials and, for that reason, Seahawks games are always my favorite to bet. Last week, this is what I said about the subject, “No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals team on the road last week; that’s why it’s now predictable that they’ll bounce back at home against a superior Cowboys team.” And what did they do? Well, they bounced back at home against a superior Cowboys team, improving to 28-14 ATS at home since 2007 and winning me my 2nd biggest play of the week

Because nothing that’s happened with this team so far has surprised me (the Cowboys were overrated and coming off an emotional opening night game, after which teams are 4-13-1 ATS in the last 9 years), I haven’t moved this team in my Power Rankings at all. That’s gotten a lot of comments from vocal Seahawks fans, who are as loud on the internet as they are at Century Link field (don’t worry, it’s a compliment). I had the Seahawks lower than most people in my Power Rankings to start the season and I haven’t moved them.

They can run the football and they play solid defense and they have one of the best home field advantages in the league, but they’re also terrible on the road and Russell Wilson is more likely to fail than succeed as a starter. He was a mere 3rd rounder and passed up on by every team in the league once and by most twice (including the Seahawks).

The NFL Draft is a crap shoot, but if there’s one thing the NFL as a whole is good at doing, it’s making sure that starting quarterbacks don’t fall out of the 1st round. Only 9 of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL today went outside the 1st round and only one rookie quarterback who didn’t go in the 1st round has started week 1 since 1994 and gone on to throw more touchdowns than interceptions.

I like Pete Carroll and maybe he and John Schneider found a diamond in the rough, but given the history of non-1st round pick quarterbacks in the NFL, Wilson will have to prove me wrong before I start believing in him. So far, he hasn’t really done that, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 5.6 YPA and 2 touchdowns to 1 interception. For reference, Tarvaris Jackson completed 60.2% of his passes for 6.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions last year. The quarterback position is still what’s keeping this from being a legitimate playoff team, especially out of what appears to be an improved NFC West. It also doesn’t help that neither the offensive line or receiving corps are very good.

Now, it is true that Wilson hasn’t really had to do much in their first 2 games, but this week he will have to as the Packers come to town. The Packers rebounded from a pitiful defensive showing week 1 to destroy Chicago last week and now it’s looking like week 1 was the fluke for them. Even at home on Monday Night with a crazy crowd on their side, the Seahawks will have their work cut out for them.

One thing the Seahawks’ unsurprising victory over the Cowboys last week did was it completely moved this line. This line was originally -6 in favor of Green Bay and now it’s -3. The Seahawks are now really overrated. I’m not saying going into Seattle and winning is easy, but all the Packers really need to do here is win straight up because we have field goal protection. Nobody has been better at doing that over the last 2 years or so as, including playoffs, the Packers are 22-3 in their last 25 games, 17-8 ATS. I really like them to win here as small favorites, especially with 11 days rest coming off Thursday Night football. Teams are 42-28 ATS since 2008 coming off Thursday Night football (excluding teams coming off week 1 Thursday Night games). There isn’t any trend that says that teams are better on Monday Night (4-5 ATS), but I don’t think the extra day of rest will hurt.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Pick change:

I’ve never done this before, but I’m changing this right before game time for several reasons.

1. Home dogs are dominating this year. They are 12-6 and an unbelievable 11-7 straight up. They aren’t just covering at a high rate. They’re pulling the upset at a rate higher than 61..1% clip. Home teams, in general, are 30-17 straight up this year. That’s a winning percentage of 63.8%. Over the last 22 seasons, home teams generally win at a rate of 58.1%. I know it’s early, but there is an explanation for this. It’s the replacement refs. It’s very possible they’re just much more easily swayed by crowds. Home teams generally have an advantage for this reason, but it’s possible it’s just more pronounced this year with inferior refs. Seattle is normally one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL and it’s only going to be louder on Monday Night Football. I don’t trust the refs to make the right calls and if they’re going to be getting them wrong, it’s probably going to be in Seattle’s favor tonight.

2. The public is getting murdered this year. On bets with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is 4-11 this year. This game is one of those cases with Green Bay having more than 80% of the action. Still, the line is dropping from -4 to -3.5 or -3 at some places. I don’t want to be siding with the public, given how they’ve fared this year, when there’s opposite line movement. The odds makers might know something the general public doesn’t and it’s possible that reason 1 is part of it.

3. New England lost. This will make sense in a bit. Every year, one team goes from having a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. Last year, the 4 team that had a 1st round bye were New England, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Green Bay. The AFC is so weak this year that I can’t see either Baltimore or New England missing the playoffs unless they were legitimately not good enough and both them of looked it last night. The Ravens actually have a better chance of missing the playoffs because they play in a division with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, while New England just has Miami, Buffalo, and the Revis-less Jets to deal with, but Baltimore also just won head-to-head.

The NFC, however, is a much stronger conference. Several deserving teams are going to miss the playoffs. There isn’t a single awful team in the conference. Their only 0-3 team is the Saints and you still can’t feel comfortable counting them out. The 6 or worst teams in the NFL, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland, Miami, Kansas City, Indianapolis, they’re all in the AFC. Who does the NFC have that’s that bad? Minnesota and Arizona were supposed to be that bad. They’re 5-1. Carolina? St. Louis? Tampa Bay? Maybe? The AFC and NFC are 4-8 when they play each other this year.

For that reason, I have a feeling that the team that goes from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs is in the NFC. San Francisco is a candidate because they just fell flat against the Vikings, but they also beat the Packers head to head in Lambeau and they have, what I feel, is the easier division. Green Bay has had one good defensive performance and one bad one and the good one game on a short week against a discombobulated Bears team. If what we saw week 1 from their defense is really their defense (which makes sense given their reliance on takeaways last year), they can definitely lose this game and with a tough schedule, it wouldn’t be outrageous that they could miss the playoffs. As long as I can get field goal protection, I’m taking the points.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Seattle +3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Green Bay Packers: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 4 (+3)

Record: 1-1

The Packers came out flat defensively week 1 and lost to the 49ers and fire on defensively and beat the Bears week 2. Both are worthy opponents, but which defensive effort was the real one? I still don’t like their reliance on forcing turnovers, but if they can continue to play at least solid defense, they’ll be as tough to beat as they have been over the last 25 games, where they’re 22-3.

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 5 drops, 107.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 37 drop backs (5 sacks, 2 of 3, 1 throw away)

RB Cedric Benson: Rushed for 81 yards (52 after contact) on 20 carries, 2 broken tackles, 4 catches for 35 yards on 4 targets

ROLB Clay Matthews: 4 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 6 stops

LE BJ Raji: 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 2 catches for 21 yards on 6 attempts, 2 interceptions, 3 solo tackles

FS Charles Woodson: Allowed 2 catches for 24 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 2 quarterback hurries on 4 blitzes, 5 solo tackles and 2 stops

SS Morgan Burnett: Didn’t allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

TE Jermichael Finley: 4 catches for 26 yards on 6 targets on 32 pass plays, 0.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop, run blocked for 4 yards (2 after contact) on 2 attempts

WR James Jones: Caught 2 passes for -1 yards on 5 targets on 37 pass plays, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 0.0 YAC per catch

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