Packers

Could Packers trade Greg Jennings?

stevenlourie News, Packers

A stir was caused this week when respected beat writer Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel said that the Packers would be “wise” to shop Greg Jennings ahead of the trade deadline. Jennings is heading into the final year of his contract and could get the Packers a 2nd round pick, according to McGinn. Also according to McGinn, Jennings may want Larry Fitzgerald money on the open market, which would be 8 years 120 million. We saw Mike Wallace try and fail to get that kind of money this offseason, proving how tough it is to get that type of money unless you’re Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, but Jennings should get at least the 5 years 55 million dollar that Vincent Jackson got last offseason on the open market.

Jennings has been an incredibly productive receiver over the past few years, catching 389 passes for 6171 yards and 49 touchdowns, but he wouldn’t be worth that to the Packers. The Packers don’t like to commit big money to guys and have plenty of receiving depth with Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb, so it makes sense that they could let him leave, heading into his age 30 season in 2013. There’s also his health issue with 3 concussions as a pro on his record. He’s unlikely to be anywhere near this productive elsewhere, as he’s only ever had Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre throwing him the football, and any team that signs him to a giant contract would be making a bad deal.

Still, trading him wouldn’t make any sense. The Packers are built to win now and Jennings is definitely an asset to a Super Bowl run. It wouldn’t be worth a 2nd round pick for the Packers to “hedge their bet” in a year where they could easily win it all. The Steelers might have been able to get a 2nd for Mike Wallace, but they wouldn’t have traded him for that, even though he was holding out, because giving yourself the best chance to win a Super Bowl now is worth more than a 2nd round pick later. I would be shocked if the Packers made this kind of move midseason, barring some unforeseen major early season struggles that knocked them out of Super Bowl contention.

Plus, I just don’t understand why Jennings would want to leave. Sure, he’ll probably have to take less money to stay, but playing for a team like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers throwing you the football is a wide receiver’s dream and it’s a lot of money either way. Jennings needs the Packers more than the Packers need him. One option that would make a lot of sense for both sides is the franchise tag, which the Packers should have available next offseason, with no other major free agents to lock up.

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers

Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

This is the game of the week right here. I’ve been high on the Bears all offseason, naming them as one of my underrated teams. In fact, I thought they were the 2nd best team in the NFC, but couldn’t have them winning the division because the Packers were just so good. Well, the Packers aren’t looking so good anymore. Aaron Rodgers has, believe it or not, dropped 3 of his last 4 starts, including two straight at home.

It hasn’t really been his fault. His defense is way too reliant on turnovers and can’t stop anyone without them. In their last 3 games where they failed to force a turnover, they’ve lost. It’s very tough to predict turnover totals on a yearly basis. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers in their next season. The Packers can’t expect to force the 38 turnovers they did last year. They’ll have to get better defensively.

I thought the addition of 3 key contributors through the draft and potential bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams would allow this team to bounce back; after all Dom Caper is one of the better defensive coordinators in the game and they had the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense in 2010, but I guess not. They made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana in the opener, blowing numerous coverages, failing to stuff the run, and only pressuring Smith on 7 dropbacks, fewest in the NFL last week. If they can’t improve defensively, their offense won’t be able to get onto the field to do what they do best and the Packers could fairly well be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. They can’t afford to go down 0-2 at home to start the season.

Unfortunately, things don’t get any easier here for the Packers. The Bears might be the best team in the NFL and if they aren’t, they are certainly up there. They can compete with the Packers, at the very least. They blew out an underrated Colts team last week to start this season. In 2010, they went 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game. In 2011, they started out 7-3 before injuries struck to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Cutler and Forte are back. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are in and both had great debuts. And their offensive line doesn’t look as overmatched as they did under Mike Martz, allowing Cutler to be pressured on just 11 of 37 drop backs. And then, of course, they still have one of the league’s better defenses.

The Bears were one of my underrated teams coming into the season. The idea was to bet them until I was proven wrong or the odds makers caught up. The good news is that the odds makers don’t seem to have caught up, chalking last week’s win up to their strength of opponent, even though I think the Colts are also underrated. This line is -6 in Lambeau. At the very least, given the way the Packers played last week, this line should be -3, to indicate these teams are about even, so there’s line value here. And don’t worry about betting against Aaron Rodgers after a loss. He’s just 4-5 ATS in his career as a favorite after losing as a favorite. Besides, while I expect the Packers to come out with incredible urgency to try to avoid an 0-2 start, I expect the Bears to come out with a similar level of urgency in a statement game and a chance to put the Packers at a huge disadvantage early.

Jay Cutler and company should be able to move the ball with ease against this Packers defense. Aaron Rodgers and company should be able to do the same against the Bears’ defense, as good as they are, because Rodgers has proven that you can’t really stop him. You can just limit him. Even last week, he was 30 of 44 for 303 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick against the 49ers’ vaunted defense. That’s not a bad week statistically. The Packers will move the ball here. However, the Bears are a much more well rounded team, like the 49ers were last week. One injury of note for the Packers, Greg Jennings is unlikely to play. The Packers have a deep receiving corps, so that loss might not be huge, but he is their #1 receiver so his absence can’t be ignored.

I’m taking the Bears to win and cover as 6 point underdogs, though I’m a lot more confident about the latter than the former. This figures to be an evenly matched game, so even if the Bears do lose, it probably won’t be by very much. This is a tight rivalry historically. Before 2 contests last year, the last 6 matchups between these two have been decided by 7 points or less. What happened last year? Well, in their 1st matchup, the Bears lost by 10, but should have lost by 3 if not for a phantom penalty bringing back a Devin Hester return for a touchdown. I can only assume the refs had Packers -4 in that one. In their 2nd matchup, Cutler and Forte were both out, but the Bears still managed to keep it within 14 even though the Packers were 13-1 heading into that contest and the Bears had lost their 2 best offensive players and 4 straight. That says a lot about how seriously they take this rivalry, as do the Packers, so this one will be close either way most likely, now that the two sides are more evenly matched.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Chicago Bears 31 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +240

Pick against spread: Chicago +6 (-105) 4 units

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Green Bay Packers: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 1 (-3)

Record: 0-1

The Packers’ defense was too reliant on turnovers last year. I thought they added enough talent and had enough bounce back candidate players to compensate and still be passable defensively, but they sure didn’t look that way against the 49ers. The last 3 times the Packers haven’t forced a turnover, they’ve lost. Every year there’s one team that goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. If the Packers don’t fix their defense and fast, they could be that team, as strange as it sounds. Aaron Rodgers is now 1-3 in his last 4 starts and they have a very good Bears team coming to town next week. They can’t afford to drop back-to-back home games to start the season.

Studs

WR Randall Cobb: 9 catches for 77 yards on 9 targets on 33 pass plays, 6.8 YAC per catch

ROLB Clay Matthews: 3 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 stops on 33 run snaps

SS Charles Woodson: Allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 2 attempts, 2 sacks on 5 blitzes, 3 solo tackles and 3 stops on 33 run snaps

Duds

RG Josh Sitton: Allowed 1 quarterback pressure and 1 quarterback hit on 53 pass rush plays, run blocked for 5 yards on 4 attempts

RT Bryan Bulaga: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback pressures on 53 pass rush plays, 2 penalties, run blocked for 0 yards on 0 attempts

LG TJ Lang: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback pressures on 53 pass rush plays, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 0 attempts

RB Cedric Benson: Rushed for 18 yards (10 after contact) on 9 carries, 1 broken tackle

TE Jermichael Finley: 7 catches for 47 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets on 44 pass plays, 2.7 YAC per catch, 2 drops

LOLB Nick Perry: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures on pass rush 25 snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops on 33 run stop snaps, allowed 4 catches for 51 yards and 4 attempts

MLB DJ Smith: 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 missed tackles, 4 stops on 32 run snaps, allowed 0 catches on 1 attempt

LE Ryan Pickett: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures on pass rush 21 snaps, 1 assist on 25 run snaps

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Could this be Greg Jennings’ final year with the Packers?

stevenlourie News, Packers

Heading into his contract year, Greg Jennings admits that this could be his final year with the Packers, saying “Whether the contract comes with Green Bay in the near future or (with) one of the other 31 teams, that’s the reality of it.” Aaron Rodgers echoed that sentiment saying “I think you have to be realistic about it and think that it might be (our last year together).” Jennings did say he wouldn’t let it effect him this year, saying “I’ve never allowed my individual off the field dealings that I need to take care of become a distraction to myself, let alone the team. It’s one of those deals where I can’t control the situation. I have an agent. He’s working diligently on that. He knows my stance on that.”

Jennings has been an incredibly productive receiver over the past few years, catching 389 passes for 6171 yards and 49 touchdowns and probably could get Vincent Jackson money on the open market (5 years, 55 million), at least. The Packers don’t like to commit big money to guys and have plenty of receiving depth with Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb, so it makes sense that they could let him leave, heading into his age 30 season in 2013. There’s also his health issue with 3 concussions as a pro on his record.

I just don’t understand why Jennings would want to leave though. Sure, he’ll probably have to take less money to stay, but playing for a team like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers throwing you the football is a wide receiver’s dream and it’s a lot of money either way. He’s unlikely to be anywhere near this productive elsewhere, as he’s only ever had Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre throwing him the football, and any team that signs him to a giant contract would be making a bad deal. Jennings needs the Packers more than the Packers need him. One option that would make a lot of sense for both sides is the franchise tag, which the Packers should have available next offseason, with no other major free agents to lock up.

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, Packers

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Anyone who has been following the website during the offseason knows I’m not particularly optimistic about the 2012 49ers. I have them as my team that goes from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs (there’s one every season) and my team that sees a win decrease of 6+ games (also one every season). They had 10 turnovers last year, an NFL record. Unfortunately, turnovers and takeaways are fairly inconsistent on a yearly basis. Teams that have fewer than 20 turnovers win, on average, 2.69 fewer games the next season. Those teams average 26.3 turnovers per year the following year. Meanwhile, teams that have 35 or more turnovers average 28.3 turnovers the following year.

The same is true for takeaways. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers and 2 fewer wins in their next season. The 49ers forced 38, for a turnover differential of +28, best in the league over the past decade. Teams with differential of +15 or higher have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. Teams with differentials of +15 or higher have a differential of, on average, +2.1 the following season. Teams with differentials of -15 or lower have a differential of +1.4 the following season. Teams with 20 takeaways or less average 25.8 takeaways the following season, while teams with 35 or more average 27.5 the following season.

Meanwhile, the 49ers also improved 7 games last year and teams that do that win, on average, 4.5 fewer games the next season. Along the same lines, since 2003, of the 16 teams who have gone from out of the playoffs to a 1st round bye (like the 49ers did last year), 7 did the opposite thing the following season, and those teams won an average of 3.2 fewer games the following season. The 49ers also had tremendous luck with injuries last year, only losing Patrick Willis for 3 games. Defensively, they had 9 or 10 of 11 starters have career years. If guys get hurt at a more normal rate this year and say 5 of 10 guys regress slightly, it’ll be noticeable on the field and in the win total.

On top of that, I’ve followed the NFL long enough to know that teams without legitimate franchise quarterbacks don’t have staying power. You can have a good season or even a great season one year when everything else goes right, but you’ll never have the consistent success of the teams with elite quarterbacks. The 49ers are either a one year wonder or a team that’s going to take a step back this year. I lean towards the latter because I really respect Jim Harbaugh and Trent Baalke but they have to do something about the quarterback position eventually and, either way, they’ll regress this season.

The Packers also had more than 35 takeaways, fewer than 20 turnovers, and a turnover differential of higher than +15. Here’s why it won’t affect them as much. Defensively, they may have fewer turnovers, but they added 3 talented rookie defensive players in the first 2 rounds of the draft, and could get potential bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams, key players on a Packers defense that allowed the 2nd fewest points in the league in 2010, when they went to the Super Bowl.

Offensively, they have an elite franchise quarterback. Teams with elite franchise quarterbacks tend to be more immune from big shifts in turnover numbers. Peyton Manning and the Colts had 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times, while Tom Brady and the Patriots had 20 or fewer 3 times. Of those 8 combined times, 5 times the team had 20 or fewer turnovers the following season. Of the 3 times that didn’t happen, one is yet to be determined, because the Patriots did it last year, one was the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady for the season week 1, and the other was the 2008 Colts, who had a mere 21. Aaron Rodgers may throw more turnovers than the mere 6 he threw last year, but if he does, it’ll probably be something along the lines of the 11 he threw in 2010 or the 13 Tom Brady threw last year after throwing just 4 in 2010. The 49ers don’t have that luxury at quarterback.

Yes, the Packers may regress a little bit, but you can regress 2 or 3 games when you win 15 games and still be fine. Teams that improve 5 games in a season regress about 2.4 games the following season. The Packers don’t have every warning flag going off saying “Major regression!!! Major regression!!!” like the 49ers. They’ll be a 12 or 13 win team, which is what they’re averaged over the last 3 years (12.0) and compete for another Super Bowl. They’re a much better team than the 49ers, but this line (-5) doesn’t suggest it. What you see below are some Vegas odds from weeks 1-3 last season.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco

Chicago (+7) at New Orleans

Houston (-3) at Miami

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

San Diego (+7) at New England

St. Louis (+4.5) at NY Giants

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta

San Francisco (+3) at Cincinnati

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago

Those look comical to us now, but they were once legitimate lines. If you had predicted beforehand that teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and Cincinnati would exceed expectations and teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia would do the opposite, that’s 15 wins (and one push) for you in 3 weeks easily. I identified San Francisco as an overrated team and will be betting against them pretty heavily until they stop being overrated or prove me wrong.

Even if the 49ers prove everything I wrote above wrong, I still like the Packers in this situation. If these two teams faced off last year, when everything was going right for the 49ers, I would have picked the Packers to win and cover against this line. San Francisco barely beat New Orleans at home. Green Bay is a superior and similar style team compared to New Orleans and this game is in Green Bay. As good as the 49ers’ defense is, the Saints still hung 32 points on them in San Francisco.

In fact, you look at how they did against elite quarterbacks in general (not counting Ben Roethlisberger because he was hurt), they allowed 316 and 311 yards to Eli Manning, 462 yards to Drew Brees, and, if you want to count them, 293 yards to Matt Stafford and 345 yards to Tony Romo (that game went into overtime, but Romo also missed time in the game with bruised ribs, so that evens it out). The 49ers have an amazing run defense, but their pass defense can be thrown on. They ranked a solid, but not elite 10th against the pass last year, allowing 6.9 YPA and that was with all 4 starting defensive backs having career years.

Aaron Rodgers and company will be able to move the ball. They won’t be able to run, but that’s not a big part of their offense anyway. I expect the Packers to score in the 30s here and, now on the road, I don’t expect Alex Smith and company to keep up. He could easily throw a couple picks if they get down early and get a head start on that increase in turnovers. Besides, it’s not smart to bet against the Packers. They were 11-6 ATS last year (including 7-2 ATS at home), which goes right along with their 35-19 ATS record from the last 3 seasons. The 49ers were 12-4-2 ATS, but that’s because they were so underrated for the first half of the season. After ripping off a 9-0-1 ATS stretch to start the season, they finished just 3-4-1 ATS. It’s one thing to have a strong ATS record when sneaking up on people like the 49ers did last year. It’s another thing to do it as defending Super Bowl champs. The Packers won’t sneak up on anyone this year either, but they’ll still be a covering machine. This is one of my favorite picks of the week.

Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -5 (-110) 4 units

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Cedric Benson really impressing Packers

stevenlourie News, Packers

According to multiple sources, Cedric Benson has really impressed the Packers since they signed him a couple weeks ago. These sources include the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, several scouts, the Packers’ official website, and even running backs coach Alex Van Pelt. Benson seems to have fully taken James Starks’ old job and will get the bulk of the running down carries, with Alex Green serving only as a passing down back and change of pace back.

James Starks, meanwhile, is on the roster bubble as he is currently suffering from turf toe and out indefinitely. The Packers may keep Brandon Saine, a less injury prone, albeit less talented back, as their 3rd back, assuming they decide to only keep 3 running backs. That’s a strong possibility because fullback John Kuhn can also play some running back on passing downs and short yardage plays.

As for Benson, he walks into a great situation. Because of how good the Packers’ passing game and offensive line is, Benson really just has to run through holes. Heading into his age 30 season, he not very explosive, but in the Packers’ system he could still be very productive. He’s also surprisingly durable considering how injury prone he was in his younger days. Benson has missed just 4 games over the past 3 years, despite one of the league’s highest usage rates over that time period, averaging 21.7 touches per game.

He’ll have a smaller role in Green Bay on a less run heavy offense with other backs behind him, but he should still have a solid season. In a weak year for running backs, Benson is a solid flex with RB2 potential depending on the matchup in standard leagues. He’s currently going in the 5th round on average, up from the 7th round on average just a week ago, but that might not be too high for him.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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James Starks, Graham Harrell on Packers’ roster bubble

stevenlourie News, Packers

There was a time when James Starks looked like the starting running back for the Packers. Even though Starks had injury issues dating back to his days at the University of Buffalo and had averaged just 4.2 YPC on only 162 career carries in 2 years after going in the 6th round in 2010, the Packers were committed to him as the starter for most of the offseason. However, after a rough Training Camp and preseason and then a turf toe injury that still has him sidelined and likely will into the season, the Packers signed Cedric Benson, a similar style veteran back, to essentially take his job.

Now, if the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is to be believed, Starks is in danger of losing his roster spot all together as the Packers could keep Brandon Saine, a much less injury prone back, over him at final cuts, if the team does decide to keep only 3 running backs. Saine was an undrafted free agent just last year and rushed for just 69 yards on 18 carries last year (3.8 YPC), but he doesn’t have Starks’ injury history so he’s a much more reliable #3 back and the Packers have been high on him all offseason. Either way, Cedric Benson looks entrenched as the starter, with 2011 3rd round pick Alex Green serving as the change of pace back.

Graham Harrell, meanwhile, is currently listed as the Packers’ #2 quarterback, but struggled mightily in his first extended playing time last week, completing 12 of 24 for just 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against Cleveland’s 2nd and 3rd string defenders. He will get another chance to prove himself this week, but he might need to do a lot to earn back the respect of the coaching staff. The 2009 undrafted free agent has yet to throw a regular season pass in the NFL.

If he doesn’t turn it around quickly, the Packers are fully expected to pursue either Colt McCoy or Tarvaris Jackson from the Browns and Seahawks respectively as veteran backups for Aaron Rodgers. If that happens, Harrell will need the Packers to keep 3 quarterbacks AND cut 7th round rookie BJ Coleman, currently the 3rd string quarterback, to make the roster. The same Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel mentioned him as a potential final cut and they may very well be right about that.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Cedric Benson is “probable” week 1 starter for Packers

stevenlourie News, Packers

After going with a youth movement at running back for the entire offseason, the Packers caved earlier this month and signed veteran running back Cedric Benson after injury prone youngster James Starks suffered a turf toe injury, on top of a rough Training Camp and preseason, that threatened his availability for the regular season. As could be expected, the Packers are likely to start Benson at running back week 1, according to a report from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, which calls him the “probable” week 1 starter.

Starks, an injury prone player dating back to his days at the University of Buffalo, is highly questionable for the regular season opener and may even be on the roster bubble, while Alex Green, a 2011 3rd round pick who carried the ball just 3 times last season before an ACL tear, will probably only be a change of pace and 3rd down back. In that role, he should compliment Benson well.

Even though they lack running back talent, the Packers have a good offensive line and a great passing game so all the backs will really need to do is protect the football and run through holes. Benson should be able to do that. The passing game and offensive line will make them look better than they are and then they’ll do the rest on what figures to once again be one of the most explosive offenses in the league.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Green Bay Packers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: DJ Smith

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Packers

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Green Bay Packers, that player is middle linebacker DJ Smith.

GM Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers are widely considered one of the best drafting teams in the NFL. Never was this more apparent than on their 2010 Super Bowl run, when they won the Super Bowl despite 16 players going on IR. Guys kept getting hurt, but, because they draft so well, especially late in drafts, they had great depth and were able to plug in guys to not just fill the holes, but to play well enough for the team to make it all the way to the Super Bowl. 19 of their 22 offensive and defensive starters that year were either drafted by the Packers or signed as undrafted free agents.

One key injury was to middle linebacker Nick Barnett. Barnett, a homegrown player of the Packers, who they drafted in the 1st round in 2003, was going into his 8th year as a starter for the Packers. He had exceeded 100 tackles in 6 of his previous 7 seasons, 120 tackles 4 times, and 130 tackles 3 times.  However, he only played 4 games in 2010 because he went on IR with a season ending wrist injury.

In his place, the Packers plugged in Desmond Bishop, a 6th round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. Bishop was a largely unknown player who had tallied just 55 tackles in 3 seasons before 2010. However, he proved to be a star, filling in for Barnett, and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked middle linebacker that year, en route to a Packers’ Super Bowl victory. Barnett played so well that it became an easy decision for the Packers to cut Barnett, an aging player, in the 2011 offseason, making Barnett the long term starter. In 2011, he wasn’t quite as good, but ranking 14th at his position on ProFootballFocus isn’t too shabby.

However, Bishop recently suffered a ruptured hamstring in a Packers’ preseason game and will get surgery and likely miss the entire season. Can they plug in another player and still get above average play from the position? If DJ Smith, a 2011 6th round pick, continues to play like he did in limited action last season, they can.

Making 4 starts in place of injured starters and playing just 267 snaps total, Smith had 26 solo tackles, 10 stops, 8 assists, and only missed 2 tackles. Further breaking it down, he had 15 solo tackles, 7 assists, and 8 stops (while not missing a single tackle) on 97 run stopping snaps, rates of 15.5%, 7.2%, and 8.2%. For comparison, Bishop had 56 solo tackles, 14 assists, and 28 stops on 258 run stopping snaps, rates of 21.7%, 5.4%, and 10.9%.

Bishop was better, but Smith wasn’t bad and, remember, last year was Smith’s rookie year. Extrapolate his play in 4 starts to 16 starts and he would have had 60 solo tackles, 28 assists, and 32 stops, which would have ranked tied for 7th, tied for 1st, and tied for 17th at his position last year. If you extrapolate his total tackle stats (on pass and run plays), he would have had 104 solo tackles, 32 assists, and 40 stops last year, while only missing 8 tackles. That would have ranked him 7th, tied for 1st, and tied for 24th, and tied for 27th at his position last season.

He was above average in 4 starts last season as a mere 6th round rookie and, even before Bishop’s injury, his strong play this offseason had him in the running for some passing down snaps, in place of AJ Hawk, who would become a two-down linebacker. With Bishop hurt, his coaching staff has full trust and support of him as what they call a “100% player.” He could definitely prove himself to be a more than adequate replacement and keep his job long term in 2013, which would likely lead to the marginal and overpaid Hawk being cut. The Packers appear to have uncovered another diamond in the rough with the 2011 6th rounder out of Appalachian State.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Green Bay Packers extend G TJ Lang

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Packers

I don’t normally criticize things the Packers do, but this really seems like the Packers are buying high. Lang only has one year of starting experience and it’s not like he was an elite guard or anything last year. Making 15 starts, including playoffs, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 19th ranked guard. He’s better in pass protection, where he ranked 6th at his position, allowing just 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 9 quarterback pressures, but he struggled as a run blocker and he committed 7 penalties.

Obviously, pass protection is more important on an offense like the Packers’ than run blocking is, but it’s important to know that he’s a one dimensional player and not an elite player, never mind that he’s only got one year of starting experience. Last year at this time, he was fighting for a starting job as a career backup as 2009 4th round pick out of Eastern Michigan.

The Packers didn’t give him a ton of money, tacking on 20.8 million over 4 years to the 1.26 million he was owed in the final year of his rookie year in 2012. However, it seems like he probably would have accepted the same sort of offer next offseason, when the Packers would have had 2 years of starting tape on him to more accurately evaluate him.

If they had given him this contract next offseason after another solid year as a starter, it would have been a reasonable deal, but they’re buying high here with him. This isn’t like the extension they gave Josh Sitton last offseason. Sitton was coming off a season in which he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ #1 guard and the year before that, he was their #7 rated guard. He was very reasonable paid at 33.75 million over 5 years.

Grade: B

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