Panthers

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2015 NFC Divisional Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (11-6) at Carolina Panthers (15-1)

This is a matchup of two absolute powerhouses, as Carolina and Seattle rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in rate of moving the chains differential. Seattle gets running back Marshawn Lynch back from a 7 game absence, while Carolina gets running back Jonathan Stewart back from a 3 game absence, safety Kurt Coleman back from a 1 game absence, and wide receiver Ted Ginn back from a 1 game absence, though cornerback Charles Tillman is out for the season. I think Carolina is the better team, so I like being able to take them as mere 2.5 point favorites at home, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, but I’d need to be getting points to bet any money against Seattle, especially since home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round.

Carolina Panthers 16 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Carolina Panthers (14-1)

The Panthers’ undefeated season attempt ended with last week’s road loss in Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean that the Panthers are going take it easy in their final regular season game this week. In fact, it likely means the opposite because now their week 17 game is meaningful, as they need a win to hold onto the #1 seed. A loss at home to the Buccaneers, coupled with an Arizona home win over the Seattle Seahawks, drops Carolina into the #2 seed.

Fortunately for them, the Panthers have a pretty easy matchup, hosting Tampa Bay, who ranks 21st in rate of moving the chains differential. The Panthers, who rank 2nd in that metric, are favored by 10.5 points here. Given that, I think it’s more of a question of how much the Panthers will win by, as opposed to whether or not they’ll win. The Panthers are kind of banged up right now, especially relative to the rest of the season, as they’ve overall benefitted from good health. Now, running back Jonathan Stewart, safety Kurt Coleman, and wide receiver Ted Ginn are all out. I’m still laying the 10.5 points with Carolina, but not with any confidence.

Carolina Panthers 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -10.5

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Falcons, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (14-0) at Atlanta Falcons (7-7)

The Panthers are 14-0, but that doesn’t mean they’ll take their foot off the gas, at least not this week and possibly not at all, as they attempt a perfect season. This week, they’re actually still playing for playoff seeding, as 2 straight losses to finish the season, along with another two straight wins by the Arizona Cardinals drops the Panthers down to the #2 seed. It’s a highly unlikely scenario, but a reason for the Panthers to keep giving full effort, beyond the possible perfect season.

They’re missing running back Jonathan Stewart, but they’re otherwise healthy and they’re obviously a far better team than the Falcons, who they blew out in Carolina two weeks back by the final score of 38-0. This one is in Atlanta, but the Panthers still have a good chance to cover this 7 point spread. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 16th for the Falcons and they’re in a couple of good spots. They don’t have any upcoming distractions, hosting the Buccaneers next week, against whom they’re projected to be 10 point favorites, according to the early line. Favorites of 6+ are 83-43 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win by a big margin when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

It also helps the Panthers that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Road favorites are 46-32 ATS since 2008 off of a road win, as long as it’s their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 223-224 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 320-435 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.70 points per game. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Panthers given that the public is all over them and that the public always loses money in the long run, but I’m going with Carolina.

Carolina Panthers 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (13-0) at New York Giants (6-7)

The Panthers are 13-0, but don’t expect them to take their foot off their gas, at least not this week and, if their rhetoric is to be believed, not at any point. This week, they can clinch a first round bye with a win and the #1 seed with a win and an Arizona loss. They’re missing running back Jonathan Stewart, but that shouldn’t be the end of the world. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 18th.

The Giants are 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less, have 5 losses by 4 points or fewer, and have a +18 point differential, despite a 6-7 record. However, their turnover margin on the season is +10 and there’s almost no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and its turnover margin the next week. You just can’t rely on that every week. The Panthers are also arguably the toughest opponent they’ve faced all season, so this line is too low at 4.

The Panthers are also in a great spot. While the Giants have to turn around and play in Minnesota next week, another tough game, the Panthers go to Atlanta to play the Falcons, who they just clobbered last week and against whom they’re projected to be 6.5 point favorites, according to the early line. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again if their opponent will be underdogs next week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

On top of that, teams are 46-31 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point road favorites. There’s an argument to be made that the Panthers should be favored by 6 or more here and favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012. The Panthers don’t fit that trend, but the logic applies. Superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. The Panthers should win this by at least a touchdown and continue their undefeated season.

Carolina Panthers 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (6-6) at Carolina Panthers (12-0)

The Falcons have lost 5 straight games and 6 of 7 since starting 5-0, to drop them down to 6-6. They still rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, but it has to be mentioned that the Falcons have played arguably the league’s easiest schedule thus far and have still been only able to put up overall average results. Their toughest opponents have been the likes of the Saints, Giants, Colts, Vikings, and Eagles and the Panthers are about a touchdown better than all of those teams.

The Panthers come into this game ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, against a tougher schedule that has included Seattle and Green Bay, and should be favored by at least double digits against a mediocre Falcons team that has not been playing good football of late. I had the Falcons as one of the least talented teams in the league coming into the year. They shocked a lot of people with their 5-0 start, including me, but they didn’t beat anyone of note during that stretch, won just 2 games by more than a touchdown, and have played awful since, with their only other win coming by 3 against a Tennessee team that was missing quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Making matters worse for them is the fact that the Panthers don’t have any upcoming distractions, as they head to the Giants next week, where they’re expected to be 3.5 point favorites, according to the early line. Teams are 114-89 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 75-51 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point road favorites. The Falcons don’t have any upcoming distractions either, going to Jacksonville next week, but not having any distractions tends to benefit the better team more and the Panthers should be able to win by at least two scores. As long as this line is under double digits, I have no problem putting money on the Panthers.

Carolina Panthers 27 Atlanta Falcons 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -9

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (11-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-7)

The Panthers were favored by 3.5 on the early line for this one, but the line has since shifted to 7 in favor of the Panthers. Ordinarily I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements, but I think this line just caught up with how good the Panthers are and how big of a talent disparity there is between the two teams. The Panthers rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Saints rank 21st. The Saints used to have a big homefield advantage, 35-19 ATS at home since 2008 (3-0 ATS as home underdogs), excluding the season when Sean Payton wasn’t coaching, but they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The last time they were at home, they lost in overtime to a Tennessee team that is just 2-9 this season. The magic seems to have disappeared and the Saints should have a lot of trouble with a very good Carolina team. This line is accurate.

With that in mind, I like the Panthers, because they’re in a good spot. They host the Falcons next week, a game they’ll be favored by 8.5 in, and favorites of 6+ or more are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. It makes sense that good teams would be able to take care of business without any upcoming distractions and blow out an inferior opponent. It also helps that they’re in their 2nd of two road games.

Road favorites off of a road win are 44-31 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. There’s not quite enough for me to be confident in the Panthers with the line this high, but they should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (10-0) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)

Carolina is undefeated and Dallas is 3-7, but the Cowboys are the ones favored here in Dallas (albeit by 1 point). That’s because 5 of the Cowboys’ 7 losses have come by less than a touchdown and they’re finally healthy offensively. Tony Romo made just his 3rd start of the season last week (after missing 7 games with a broken collarbone) and the Cowboys are 3-0 in his 3 starts, moving the chains at a 75.25% rate, as opposed to 70.23% in their other 7 games. Considering how close a lot of their losses were, it’s reasonable to suggest that this team could be at least 6-4, if not 7-3 if Romo were healthy all season, like he is now.

With Dez Bryant also back from injury, this team is similar to last year’s team that was one of the better teams in the league. Obviously running back DeMarco Murray left as a free agent (as did more minor contributors like defensive tackle Henry Melton, cornerback Sterling Moore, and outside linebacker Justin Durant) and they’re still without cornerback Orlando Scandrick with a torn ACL, but they’ve added defensive end Greg Hardy and got outside linebacker Sean Lee back from injury.

Still, Carolina ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Cowboys rank 20th, and Carolina gets a key player back this week, guard Andrew Norwell, who was one of the better guards in the league before missing the last 3 games. The Cowboys don’t deserve to be favored by any amount of points here, especially since they are 8-25 ATS as home favorites since 2010. I can’t put any money on the Panthers unless I’m getting a field goal, especially considering that the public is all over them, but they should be able to continue their undefeated season here and they are my pick.

Carolina Panthers 23 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Carolina +1

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0)

The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential with an undefeated record, so it might be surprising that they’re only favored by 7.5 here. However, Washington is a solid opponent, ranking 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, and healthier than they’ve been all season, while Carolina is missing left guard Andrew Norwell and cornerback Charles Tillman. On top of that, the Panthers are in a terrible spot, going to Dallas in four days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game.

Going off of that, because Tony Romo is now back for Dallas, the early line is even, meaning the Panthers could easily end up being underdogs. That would put the Panthers in another bad spot because favorites are just 95-168 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the Redskins host the Giants next week). Even if the Panthers don’t end up being underdogs, the logic still holds; The Panthers are in a bad spot with a tough road game coming up in 4 days. It’s not enough to take the Redskins with much confidence, but they should be the right side, as long as this line is a touchdown or higher.

Carolina Panthers 16 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Titans, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (8-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-6)

The Panthers got a signature win last week, beating Green Bay 37-29, validating themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL. As a result, the public is all over them as 4.5 point favorites in Tennessee this week. As is usually the case when the public heavily backs one side, I’m going the other way. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense. I think it does here, as the Panthers could be in for a huge letdown game following that big win. Teams are 61-104 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010, including 15-32 ATS as favorites. Two weeks ago, the Broncos beat the previously undefeated Packers as home underdogs and proceeded to lose straight up as 6 point road favorites in Indianapolis last week. It’s hard to get up for a lesser opponent after such a huge win.

This line is also too high. The Panthers rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and have had arguably the toughest schedule of any undefeated team (winning in Seattle, at home for Philadelphia, at home for Indianapolis, and at home for Green Bay), but a trip to Tennessee isn’t a walk in the park, despite Tennessee having just 2 wins. The Titans have moved the chains at a 73.53% rate in the 6 games started by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 72.20% rate. They’re better than their record.

It hurts the Titans that they’ll be without starting cornerback Jason McCourty in this one, but they’ve had one or both of their starting cornerbacks (Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty) injured in 6 of 8 games this season and have still played decently defensively. On offense, wide receiver Kendall Wright is out, but Mariota was able to light up the Saints without him last week. The Panthers’ obviously have a way better defense than the Saints, but the Titans could still have some offensive success and keep this within 4 points at home. Mariota is playing very well as a rookie, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while leading the Titans to that aforementioned offensive success.

This line is too high and has fallen from 5.5 and even 6 earlier this week, despite the public being all over Carolina, likely as a result of sharp action on Tennessee. I am going to side with the sharps over the public this week, as is usually a good idea. The Titans are not to be overlooked, especially in Tennessee, and the Panthers could easily do that after last week’s huge home win over the Packers. The Titans are also in a good spot off of an overtime win in New Orleans last week. Teams are 57-42 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime win as underdogs, including 29-18 ATS as underdogs. I like the Titans a good deal.

Carolina Panthers 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Carolina Panthers (7-0)

The Packers are coming off of an embarrassing offensive performance in a loss in Denver. Their high powered offense moved the chains at a mere 68.18% rate and generated just 140 yards of offense, the fewest they’ve had in a game started by Aaron Rodgers in his whole career. Some are brushing that performance off as a product of the Broncos’ defense, who have been called arguably the greatest defense of all time this week by some. The Broncos certainly have a great defense, one that ranks 1st in the league in rate of moving the chains allowed, but calling them an all-time great at this point is a huge overreaction.

I’m not so sure the Packers will find too much more offensive success this week in Carolina, who rank 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Obviously there are some fluky elements to the Packers having such a poor offensive performance last week, even against a great defense like Denver, but there are legitimate reasons for concern. This offense hasn’t been the same this year without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season. They rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, but that’s a far cry from last year, when they ranked #1. As I mentioned, the Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league, with defensive tackle Kawaan Short, middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, outside linebacker Thomas Davis, and cornerback Josh Norman all playing at an All-Pro level, so the Packers could definitely have issues moving the ball again this week.

The Panthers’ offense is pretty average, as it’s really been their defense that’s carried the team to their 7-0 record, while the Packers’ defense has been pretty solid, though it’s concerning that they struggled to contain a Denver offense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains this season. It’s possible that performance can be chalked up to a fluke and a product of Peyton Manning and company being rested and having a great game plan off of a bye, but, either way, the Packers rank lower in rate of moving the chains differential than the Panthers (8th vs. 5th) and yet the Packers are the ones getting a field goal here on the road, away from Lambeau where they’re so good. Since 2010, they’re 41-7 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.98 points per game (31-17 ATS), but just 27-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.12 points per game (24-24 ATS). This season, in addition to last big week’s loss in Denver, they’ve had trouble with both Chicago and San Francisco on the road and those are two of the worst teams in the league.

The Panthers are also in a good spot, going to Tennessee next week, a pretty easy place to play. Home underdogs are 72-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. On top of that, teams are 106-82 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 69-49 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 42-29 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. It hurts the Panthers that they’ll be without talented left guard Andrew Norwell, but they get center Ryan Kalil back this week and the Packers have an equally big injury as cornerback Sam Shields hasn’t practiced all week and is considered very questionable at best.

It does help the Packers that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 41-28 ATS since 2008 as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game. Aaron Rodgers is also 21-10 ATS off a loss in his career, which should give Packers fans some hope for a bounce back performance. However, I still think taking the field goal with the better team in the better spot at home is a no brainer here, especially with the public heavily on the Packers. This is my Pick of the Week.

Carolina Panthers 24 Green Bay Packers 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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