Panthers

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

I had the Panthers as the 2nd hottest team coming into the playoffs. They won their final 4 straight games just to make the playoffs and, in their final 5 games, they moved the chains at a 77.38% rate, as opposed to 61.98% for their opponents, a differential of 15.40%, since their week 12 bye. Over that time period, their only loss was on the road in Minnesota, who returned two blocked punts for touchdowns, the definition of a fluke and the first time that had happened in a game in 40 years. Their schedule over that time period wasn’t very good, as they didn’t play a single playoff team, but even when strength of schedule is taken into account, they still ranked 2nd over the final 4 games of the season in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential at 15.06%.

It wasn’t just those final 4 or 5 games either as they ranked 7th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over the final 8 games of the season among playoff teams. For the 4th straight year under Ron Rivera’s coaching, they’ve gotten significantly better down the stretch. In 2011, they started 2-8 and finished 6-10, winning 4 of their last 6 games. In 2012, they started 2-8 and finished 7-9, winning 5 of their last 6 games. Last year, they started 1-3 and finished 12-4, winning 11 of their last 12 games. And this year, they finished 7-8-1 after starting the season 3-8-1, winning their final 4 games.

The Panthers didn’t continue that into the playoffs last season, losing at home to the 49ers in the divisional round after sitting out the first round with a bye, but they did this season, beating the Cardinals 27-16. The Ryan Lindley led Cardinals are obviously not nearly as good as the 2013 49ers were, but the Panthers dominated that game more than the final score suggested, as they had 386 yards and 25 first downs to Arizona’s 78 yards and 8 first downs. They moved the chains at a 68.29% rate, as opposed to 45.45% for the Cardinals, which is impressive no matter who the opponent is. The Cardinals definitely didn’t have a playoff caliber offense, but they had a playoff caliber defense and then some, finishing the regular season 3rd, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.83% rate.

The problem for the Panthers is that they are running into the only team in the playoffs that came into them hotter, the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks ranked 1st in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over the final 4 games of the season, at 16.11%. They also ranked 1st in that aspect over the final 8 games of the season at 11.68% and just barely 2nd over the entire season at 6.78% (only Denver at 6.92% was better). Unlike the Panthers, an overall average team that got better as the season went on, the Seahawks are a dominant football team that played it’s best football over the final few weeks of the season, as they got healthier.

The Seahawks also have arguably the best homefield advantage in football. It wasn’t as pronounced this season as the Seahawks were good everywhere they went, moving the chains at a 74.06% rate at home, as opposed to 66.96% for their opponents (a differential of 7.10%), while moving the chains at a 76.10% rate on the road, as opposed to 70.42% for their opponents (a differential of 5.67%). However, since 2007, the Seahawks are 48-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 46-21-1 ATS (6-2 ATS this season). They outscore opponents on average by 7.93 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 27-42 record away from home (31-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 2.80 points per game, a roughly 10.5 point swing.

Injuries are also a factor in this game. While Carolina is hot right now, they could be cooled off by the injury to Star Lotulelei, who is expected to be out for the rest of the playoffs with a foot injury. Lotulelei isn’t a star player (pun intended), but he was Pro Football Focus 22nd ranked defensive tackle this season and the Panthers really missed him when he missed 2 games earlier this season. Colin Cole, who drew the starts earlier this season and should start again, isn’t very good. On top of that, Cam Newton’s health is up in the air as now he adds an ankle injury (suffered last week) to his list of injuries. He’ll play this week and he’s been able to play some of the best football of his season down the stretch despite all the injuries, but he looked limited by the injury once he suffered it last week and it’s tough to know how close to 100% he’ll be this week.

On the flip side, Seattle is even hotter right now and they add star center Max Unger back into the starting lineup. Unger missed 10 games this season with injury, but he’s one of the best centers in the game when healthy. He was only average in 2013, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked center in 2012 and this season he ranked 4th despite all the missed time with injuries, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He’ll be a huge boost to this team and ironically he’ll match up often with Colin Cole. I mentioned earlier that the Seahawks got better as the season when on because they got healthier, with guys like Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor getting back to full strength. Unger’s return might be even bigger than those guys’ returns.

On top of that, Seattle has a huge advantage as a West Coast team in a night game against an East Coast team. Teams cover at about a 2/3rds rate in that spot historically because, while the Panthers will be shutting down for the night in the 2nd half of this game, the Seahawks will not have that issue. As much as I love the run that Carolina put up to end the season, I think it comes to a screeching halt this week as they face arguably the best team in football getting healthy and playing their best football of the season right now in arguably the toughest spot in football to win, without one of their top defensive players and with their quarterback banged up as an East Coast team in a West Coast night game. I have a good amount of confidence in Seattle to cover the 10.5.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Cardinals, Panthers, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

The Panthers went into Atlanta last week and won 34-3, winning the NFC South and securing a home playoff game with a record of 7-8-1. After the game, Tony Dungy remarked that he believed the Panthers could go into Seattle and knock off the Seahawks the way they’re playing right now. That’s slightly hyperbolic, but I don’t disagree with his pro-Panthers sentiment. I was actually rooting for Seattle to lose and Arizona to win (even though I took Seattle -13 for a no confidence pick) early in those two games when they scenario was happening because I felt we could get a lot of line value with the Panthers as likely touchdown home underdogs to the Seahawks, who would fall to the 5th seed if they lost and Arizona won.

Unfortunately, Seattle did win and Arizona ended up losing anyway. Now Carolina hosts the Cardinals, which is a much easier matchup for them, but we’re not getting nearly as much line value with the Panthers as we would with them as touchdown home underdogs to Seattle. Still, the Panthers do seem like the right side here. The public is split, understanding that the Panthers are playing good football right now and understanding that the Cardinals are not the same team without Carson Palmer and even without Drew Stanton, but hesitant to lay a bunch of points with the Panthers. Despite the public’s hesitance and ambivalence, the line has moved from 4.5 to 6 and even 6.5 in some places over the past couple of days, suggesting heavy sharp action on the host.

I understand why the sharps are doing so and I agree with them. Aside from Seattle, Carolina is the hottest team in football coming into the playoffs. They’ve won 4 straight games and their rate of moving the chains differential when adjusted for strength of schedule is the 2nd best among playoff teams over the past 4 games, only trailing Seattle. In general, they’ve been great since the bye, only losing in Minnesota in a game that Carolina had a highly fluky two punts blocked and returned for touchdowns, the first time anything like that had happening in about 40 years.

Over those past 5 games since their bye, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.38% rate, as opposed to 61.98% for their opponents. The biggest difference is they’ve had Jonathan Stewart come back healthy and rush for 486 yards on 91 carries (5.34 YPA) and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott is finally once again getting the most out of his defense, despite massive personnel turnover from last season. Their schedule has been very easy over those past 5 games, as none of those 5 teams made the playoffs, but, as I mentioned earlier, even when adjusting for strength of schedule, they’re still a red hot team coming into the post-season. They’re outplaying these non-playoff teams far more than the average team does.

Besides, it’s not like Arizona is really playing like a playoff team right now. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential on the season, the Cardinals are the worst among teams who made the playoffs and even when you take strength of schedule into account, they’re only 0.01% ahead of Cincinnati for 11th out of 12 playoff teams. On the season, they moved the chains at a 69.70% rate, as opposed to 69.83% for their opponents, a differential of -0.13% that ranks 17th in the NFL.

Even Carolina is ranked 14th on the season, moving the chains at a 73.64% rate, as opposed to 72.50% for their opponents, a differential of 1.14%. Arizona’s 11-5 record has been buoyed by a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and their +11 point differential is 2nd worst among qualifying playoff teams, only ahead of these Panthers and that doesn’t even tell the whole story. The Cardinals have benefitted from tough to sustain things like a 62.07% rate of recovering fumbles (best in the NFL), a +8 turnover margin, and a +4 return touchdown margin, while the Panthers recover just 50.00% of their fumbles, have just a -3 turnover margin, and a -2 return touchdown margin.

Also, while the Panthers are the 2nd hottest team coming into the playoffs, the Cardinals are the coldest, by a long-shot. Their defense has been above average over the past 4 games, as it has been all season, but their offense has moved the chains at a rate -4.67% worse than expected given their strength of schedule over the past 4 games, which makes sense, considering they’re down to their 3rd quarterback. On the season, they’ve moved the chains at a 73.58% rate in games started by Carson Palmer and a 67.03% rate in games started by other quarterbacks.

They’ve also been worse on the road than at home this season, particularly without Palmer, moving the chains at a 68.83% rate, as opposed to 69.53% for their opponents, a differential of -0.70%. That might not seem horrible, but in games started by quarterbacks other than Carson Palmer, they move the chains at a 64.02% rate on the road. Lindley had a decent performance in San Francisco last week against a banged up San Francisco defense, as he completed 23 of 39 for 316 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, moving the chains at a 80.00% rate, which should give Arizona fans some hope, but this is still a quarterback that completes 50.8% of his passes for 4.98 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in his career over 264 attempts. Quarterbacks are 11-22 ATS since 2002 in their first post-season start anyway. Bruce Arians gets the most out of his quarterbacks, but I’m still going with the sharps and taking Carolina at 6 before this line gets any higher.

Carolina Panthers 20 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against the spread: Carolina -6

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9)

This line is off as it suggests the Falcons are the better of these two teams, considering they are favored by 4. Meanwhile, rate of moving the chains suggests the Panthers are the better team, as they rank 15th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.82% rate, as opposed to 73.29% for their opponents, a differential of 0.53%. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.63% rate, as opposed to 76.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.37%.

The Panthers have been especially good over the past 4 weeks since the bye, as they’ve moved the chains at a 78.72% rate, as opposed to 62.77% for their opponents, a differential of 15.96%. Ron Rivera, 2013 Coach of the Year, has made all the right adjustments and has this team looking like the 2013 version, despite all of the personnel turnover. The 2013 version won 12 games, the NFC South, and got secured a first round bye, while ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Panthers’ only loss over the past 4 games came on the road in Minnesota, where they surrendered two fluky punt return touchdowns. Sure, it’s just a 4 game stretch and they’ve played a weak schedule, but the Falcons aren’t exactly a quality opponent so that could carry over into this one.

That being said, the Falcons have definitely resembled a quality opponent this season at home for the most part, moving the chains at a 77.13% rate, as opposed to 75.45% for their opponents, a differential of 1.68%. That’s as opposed to 72.40% for their offense on the road and 76.45% for opponent’s offenses, a differential of -4.05%.  This relative home dominance is nothing new for them as they are 32-22-1 ATS at home (39-16 straight up) since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy.

Also, fun fact, almost every season a team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. Seattle, Denver, and New England all are going back, which means Carolina would have to lose this game and miss the playoffs for that to continue. Meanwhile, almost every season a team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs and Atlanta is really the only one still in the running that could do so (Houston technically isn’t eliminated, but they need a lot of help). It’s not a hard and fast rule, but it’s something I keep in mind when I do my season previews and something to keep in mind here. Of course, Carolina doesn’t need to win to cover as 4 point underdogs here. I’m taking the red hot Panthers, but I’m not that confident.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Carolina Panthers 30

Pick against the spread: Carolina +4

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, Panthers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)

The Browns had a horrific showing last week at home in Johnny Manziel’s debut losing the first down battle 5-24 against the Bengals and moving the chains at a 35.71% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for the Bengals. As a result of that, this line with Carolina favored by 4 is pretty reasonable. On the season, the Browns move the chains at a 68.28% rate, as opposed to 70.21% for their opponents, a differential of -1.94% that ranks 25th. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 19th, moving the chains at a 73.45% rate, as opposed to 74.25% for their opponents, a differential of -0.80%.

However, teams generally do well off of a home shutout loss, going 40-26 ATS since 1989 off of a home game in which they didn’t score any points. On top of that, teams are 82-47 ATS since 2002 off of an ATS loss off of 28 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I don’t think the Browns are undervalued, but they could easily be overlooked and embarrassed. Johnny Manziel, in particular, has been listening all week to how much of a bust he is, even though he’s made just one start and he’s 5 months removed from being a first round pick. I don’t expect him to be nearly as caught off guard this week, humbled off the worst performance of his career.

Neither of these two teams is in a good spot with tough divisional road games next week, Cleveland in Baltimore and Carolina in Atlanta. However, the Browns are in the worse spot. Non-divisional road underdogs (like the Browns) are 51-83 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, while non-divisional home favorites (like the Panthers) are 89-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. I’m taking the Browns because I like their bounce back potential off of such an ugly loss and I don’t like how everyone is already writing off Johnny Football, but they’re not in a great spot, we’re not getting any line value with them, and Manziel is still unproven, so I’m not confident.

Carolina Panthers 19 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +4

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-11) at Carolina Panthers (4-8-1)

Cam Newton is out for this one with a back injury suffered in a car accident this week. That caused this line to move from 5 to 3.5 with Derek Anderson coming in to make his 2nd start of the season. That’s not nearly enough of a line movement to compensate. Sure, Newton hasn’t been at his best this season, dealing with a variety of nagging injuries, but he’s still lead this offense to a solid 73.44% rate in 12 starts this season, despite having limited talent around him on the offensive line, in the receiving corps, and at the running back position. The defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 74.82% rate, is a much bigger part of the reason why this team is 4-8-1.

Sure, Anderson beat these Buccaneers in Tampa Bay earlier this season, but that’s not much of an accomplishment, as the Buccaneers are 14-31-1 ATS at home since 2009 (14-32 straight up), as opposed to 26-20-1 ATS (16-31 straight up) on the road. This season has essentially followed that same pattern as they are winless at home in 6 games (1-5 ATS), but 4-3 ATS (2-5 straight up) on the road. Just because Anderson won a close game in Tampa Bay earlier this season doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily win again here in Carolina, especially with Greg Hardy no longer on the field. And even if he does win, this line gives us some breathing room with the Buccaneers.

That win earlier this season by the Panthers actually puts them in a bad spot this week. Divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate. The Anderson lead Panthers and the Buccaneers are essentially even and there’s a good chance the Buccaneers get their revenge this week.

The Panthers were already in a bad spot coming off of a huge upset win in New Orleans last week as teams are 48-70 ATS since 1989 off of an upset win as 10+ point underdogs, including 25-40 ATS off a divisional upset win as 10+ point underdogs. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are in a good spot in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 111-76 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 94-54 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Buccaneers have a very tough game against the Packers in Tampa Bay on deck next week.  Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 9-24 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, and 1-7 ATS before being 10+ point home underdogs (the early line in Green Bay -10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both. However, the Panthers aren’t very good either and there’s enough stuff here to be confident in the Buccaneers as long as the line is a field goal or more.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Carolina Panthers 16 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-7)

This line moved from 6.5 to 9.5 over the past week. Ordinarily, I hate going with huge line movements as they tend to be overreactions to one week (for example, Carolina getting blown out in Minnesota and New Orleans winning in Pittsburgh), but in this case I feel like all the line movement did was get this line more to where it should have been in the first place. The Saints have been underrated all season. They have a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have a -7 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin, both powered by a 42.31% fumble recovery rate that ranks 26th in the NFL. They could easily be 7-5 or better right now. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 11th, moving the chains at an 80.65% rate, as opposed to 77.98% for their opponents, a differential of 2.67%. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 26th, moving the chains at a 72.30% rate, as opposed to 75.53% for their opponents, a differential of -3.23%.

When you consider that, this line makes a lot more sense, especially when you take into account how good the Saints are at home. Sure, the Saints lost all 3 home games during their most recent homestand, but that doesn’t completely erase their recent history of home dominance. Prior to that, they had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Sean Payton and Drew Brees. In their previous 23 home games with Payton and Brees, they are 18-4-1 ATS. Even this year alone, the Saints move the chains at an 82.03% rate, as opposed to 77.20% for their opponents, a differential of 4.83% at home. The Saints are also in a good spot with a trip to Chicago on deck, where they are projected to be 3.5 point road favorites. Teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 57-34 ATS before being 4+ point favorites. The Saints have no upcoming distractions and can focus completely on the Panthers. This feels like a Saints blowout win.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One, the Panthers are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 110-76 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-54 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. Two, teams are 74-56 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs on a 5+ game losing streak. Adding in the tie in Cincinnati, the Panthers haven’t won since week 5 and have one win since week 2. They’re the more desperate and embarrassed team. However, the Saints should still be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 27 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7)

This line is right about where it should be at 2.5 in favor of the Vikings. The Panthers are a little bit better than the Vikings on the season, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 76.04% for their opponents, a differential of -4.21% that ranks 25th. For comparison, the Vikings are two spots down at 27, moving the chains at a 68.65% rate, as opposed to 73.81% for their opponents, a differential of -5.16%. However, as long as this line is under 3 in favor of Minnesota, we’re not getting any real line value with the Panthers, especially since Star Lotulelei will likely remain out with an ankle injury for Carolina.

However, I do like the Panthers for a low confidence pick this week. I think this game will mean more to them as they look to end a 5 game losing streak. Adding in the tie in Cincinnati, the Panthers haven’t won since week 5 and have one win since week 2. They’re the more desperate and embarrassed team and can take advantage of a Minnesota team that could be flat after playing the Packers so close and losing last week. Teams are 74-54 ATS since 2002 on a 5+ game losing streak. On top of that, teams are 24-9 ATS since 1989 on a 5+ game losing streak off of a bye. They’ve had 2 weeks to regroup and I expect them to get back into the win column this week, though I’m not that confident as long as the line is under 3.

Carolina Panthers 20 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-6-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

The Panthers are 3-6-1, but they’re even worse than their record suggests. Five of their 6 losses have come by 18 points or more (Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) and their -83 point differential is worse than every team’s but 5 (Oakland, Tampa Bay, NY Jets, Jacksonville, St. Louis). They rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.20% rate, as opposed to 77.16% for their opponents, a differential of -4.96%.

Last week, they were blown out by the score of 45-21 in Philadelphia. That was in embarrassing fashion on national television on Monday Night and now they have to turn around and play another game 5 days later. They won’t have time to bounce back and teams coming off blowout losses on MNF are horrible at covering the spread the following week, as teams are 18-27 ATS off of a MNF loss of 21+ or more since 2002, including 6-14 ATS as favorites. The line moved from 3 to 2 (and 1.5 in some places) from last week, which is a significant line movement, but that was deservedly so.

The Falcons aren’t great either, moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.64% that ranks 20th in the NFL, but the Panthers have no business being favored here, even at home. The Panthers aren’t favored by a ton (2 points), but that actually puts them in a bad spot. Teams are 36-59 ATS as home favorites of 1 to 5.5 going into a bye since 2002. Between that and last week’s blowout loss on Monday Night, the Panthers are in a horrible spot to cover the spread this week, even before you take into account that we’re getting line value with the Falcons as underdogs here.

The Falcons, conversely, are in a great spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. I like the Falcons a good amount here.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Carolina Panthers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Eagles, Panthers, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1)

The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good as his numbers, ranking 29th out of 36 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Even last season, when he completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, he was only Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked quarterback. The Eagles’ offense didn’t miss a beat last week when Foles got hurt and Mark Sanchez came in. It’s really starting to look like Foles is primarily just a product of the system and the Eagles’ supporting cast.

This isn’t to say that the Eagles won’t miss Foles and that Mark Sanchez will be exactly as good, but it could easily not be a big loss. At the same time, the Eagles have gotten Jason Kelce back from injury, will be getting Evan Mathis from injury, and have finally gotten LeSean McCoy going on the ground. The Eagles have only moved the chains at a 72.34% rate this season and I don’t expect that to get any worse over the next 6-8 weeks. If their defense can continue playing well, as they currently allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.58% rate, they shouldn’t be a worse team this week than they were a few weeks ago. They’re not as good as their 6-2 record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re a lot better than the Panthers.

The Panthers rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 77.89% for their opponents, a differential of -4.10%. However, they’re in a much better spot here this week than the Eagles. While Philadelphia has to go to Green Bay next week, Carolina just hosts Atlanta. Teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Teams are also 45-78 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs.  As long as this line is a touchdown or more, I like the Panthers a good deal.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (3-4-1)

I’ve been high on the Saints this whole season, picking them to win the Super Bowl before the season and not really wavering from that a ton even as they got out to a 2-4 start. That 2-4 start was largely a result of starting the season with 4 of 6 on the road, a significant injury to Jimmy Graham (which he’s over now), a -8 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin fueled by an 18.18% rate of recovering fumbles, and 3 losses by a combined 6 points. They were legitimately a few plays away from being 5-1.

Last week, they got Graham back and were able to beat a very good Packer team by 21 back at home, winning the turnover battle by 2. Now they’re legitimately a few plays away from being 6-1. However, now they have to go back on the road, which hasn’t been nearly as kind to them over recent years.  While they are 18-1-1 ATS at home over their last 20 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, winning all 20 of those games by an average of about 19.6 points per game, they are 3-11 ATS on the road over the past 2 seasons.

I wish the Saints were still underdogs as they were with the early line last week (Carolina -1.5), as Drew Brees is 6-8 ATS as road underdogs since 2010, as opposed to 8-17 ATS as road favorites. That also would have opened up a significant trend as the Saints will be home favorites next week for San Francisco, while the Panthers will be road underdogs next week in Philadelphia (teams are 57-96 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites).

I hate going with huge line movement like this one (-1.5 to +2.5), but it’s all within the field goals so it’s not as big of a concern. This line is also more than justified as the line movement is simply catching up to how good the Saints have been all season. The Saints rank 6th, moving the chains at an 81.30% rate, as opposed to 78.08% for their opponents, a differential of 3.22%. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 74.10% rate, but allowing opponents to move them at a 77.04% rate, a differential of -2.94%. That suggests the Saints should be favored by at least a field goal. On top of that, home underdogs in night games are 30-58 ATS since 1989. The Saints should be the right side, but I can’t be confident in them on the road.

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -2.5

Confidence: None

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