Panthers

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-11)

This is an important game to the Panthers for seeding purposes. If they win and Seattle were to lose, they would become the #1 seed and have home field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl. However, if they were to lose and New Orleans were to win, they’d fall all the way from the 2nd seed to the 5th seed, not only losing a first round bye in the process, but also losing guaranteed home field advantage through to the NFC Championship game. Atlanta, meanwhile, is obviously eliminated, but they’ll still play hard to try to ruin the plans of a divisional rival. They’ve been playing decent football of late and they clearly have not quit as players are playing for future playing time and contracts.

The Panthers usually blow out bad teams. The Falcons are playing better of late, but they’re still a bad team, exemplified by the fact that they are rightfully 6.5 point underdogs here at home. The Panthers haven’t always held their own in close games against top level teams like this year, but they’ve always destroyed bad teams, going 6-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2011, the start of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. That one ATS loss was a 10 point win as 11 point favorites against the Jets a few weeks ago so it’s not like it wasn’t close to being a cover. The Jets backdoored them with a garbage time touchdown late down 30-13. They’ve still won all 7 of those games by an average of 18.72 points per game.

Given that, the Panthers should be the right side, but it’s not a big play. That alone isn’t enough to go on for a significant play and it’s not like we’re getting line significant value as I have this line calculated at exactly a touchdown, which is where it basically is at right now. Carolina could also be a little hungover after last week’s huge comeback win over New Orleans, though Atlanta too could be flat off of a crushing road loss on Monday Night Football to the 49ers in what was pretty much their Super Bowl. Of course, they could also see this one as a big game because of the Panthers’ record and because they are a divisional rival. At the end of the day, the Panthers should be the right side as long as the line stays under a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Carolina Panthers 23 Atlanta Falcons 13

Pick against spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)

The Saints lost last week in St. Louis in upset blowout fashion. However, they are in a good spot here in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.

It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. This isn’t a new thing. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game. Losing to the Rams last week might have actually helped them this week for that reason. Another reason why losing to the Rams last week might help them this week is how good the Saints have been off of a loss over the past 5 or so seasons. Since 2008, they are 17-3 ATS off of a loss when they have both Sean Payton coaching and Drew Brees playing.

However, there’s one really good reason not to be confident in the Saints this week. They lost to the Rams! In blowout fashion! I know that’s contradictory to the first 3 paragraphs, but it’s not like last week’s loss in St. Louis was some huge fluke that should just be ignored. It’s part of a long trend of disappointment for the Saints on the road. So far this season, they’ve lost in New England, New York to the Jets, and St. Louis, gotten blown out in Seattle, and almost lost in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, both of which were against the spread losses as road favorites.

I have a 13-1 ATS record picking Saints games this season and I would be 13-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated. That’s their only road cover of the season as they are 1-6 ATS.

This isn’t just a 2013 problem for the Saints. Since 2008, they are 30-9 ATS (35-6 straight up) at home when Drew Brees is under center and Sean Payton is on the sideline. That’s as opposed to 17-24 ATS (24-19 straight up) on the road. How are they suddenly supposed to beat a very good Carolina team on the road when they’ve struggled this much (relatively) there thus far this season and in recent seasons? I know it’s their 2nd straight road game, which is why I’m not confident in Carolina either, but so were the New England and Seattle games.

Speaking of that very good Carolina team, they rank 1st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 76.40% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 67.37% rate, a differential of 9.03%. The Saints aren’t too shabby in this area either, even after their loss to St. Louis, as they move the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 69.94% for their opponents, a differential of 7.78%. That’s 3rd in the NFL, but they still don’t do as well as Carolina and they definitely aren’t nearly as good away from the Superdome. This line suggests that these two teams are even on a neutral field. I don’t think that’s true.

On top of that, the Panthers are in a good spot as they will be road favorites of 3 or more in Atlanta next week, a situation teams are 62-40 ATS since 2012. Furthermore, teams are 113-84 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Again, I’m not that confident in the Panthers because there are things that work in New Orleans’ favor this week, but they should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Panthers, Uncategorized

New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (9-4)

At first glance, the Panthers definitely seem like the right side. By all measures, the Panthers are a top-5 team and the Jets are probably a bottom-5 team. The Panthers’ +110 point differential is 4th in the NFL behind the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs. The Jets’ -111 point differential is 3rd worst in the NFL ahead of Washington and Jacksonville. In terms of DVOA, the Panthers rank 3rd and the Jets rank 26th, including 27th in weighted DVOA.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Panthers move the chains at a 76.19% rate, as opposed to 66.57% for their opponents, a 9.62% differential that is actually the best in the NFL. The Jets, meanwhile, come in next to last, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.91% rate, while only moving them at a league worst 62.37% rate, a differential of -6.55%. Given that, this line is actually too small at 11. I have this line calculated at 19, which makes sense if the Panthers are a top level team and the Jets are a bottom level team.

The Jets won last week, but needing a blocked punt return touchdown to beat the Raiders at home by 10 is nothing to write home about. The Jets also have been very bad off of a win over the past 2 seasons, going 3-8 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2012 season. They haven’t handled success well. On top of that, Geno Smith has been horrible on the road this season. He hasn’t been good anywhere, part of why the Jets are moving the chains at a league worst rate and have a league worst 18 offensive touchdowns.

However, his road numbers are some of the worst you’ll ever see for a guy who kept his starting job all season. He’s completed 55.5% of his passes for an average of 6.65 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Even that’s skewed by a 3 touchdown, no interception performance in Atlanta. In his other 5 road games, he has 1 touchdown, and 12 interceptions. As a result, the Jets have lost those 5 games by an average of 21.4 points per game, while the win in Atlanta came by just 2. The Jets are a terrible team, especially on the road.

The Panthers have done a great job of blowing out bottom level teams since the start of the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era. They haven’t always held their own in close games against top level teams like this year, but they’ve always destroyed bad teams, going 6-0 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2011, winning by an average of 20.2 points per game. The Panthers’ defense might be the best in the NFL, allowing 16 offensive touchdowns all season, with 4 of those coming in the Superdome last week. They should completely befuddle the Jets’ dysfunctional offense. I’d actually be shocked if the Jets got out of single digits offensively.

However, there are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One, it’s possible that the Panthers overlook the Jets with a rematch against the Saints coming up next week. Two, the Jets, meanwhile, have no distractions here that would prevent them from covering this spread, as they host the lowly Browns next week. Teams are 49-32 ATS as double digit underdogs before being favorites since 2002, while non-divisional road dogs are 100-65 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. The Panthers should still be the right side and get a blowout victory, but I’m not really confident or anything.

Carolina Panthers 24 New York Jets 6

Pick against spread: Carolina -11

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3)

The Saints got blown out in Seattle last week 34-7, but there’s not a lot of shame in getting blown out in Seattle. They have the most powerful homefield advantage in the NFL and they also might be the best team in the NFL. This week, the Saints return home, where they have probably the 2nd most powerful homefield advantage in the NFL. The Saints haven’t lost against the spread, or straight up, at home under Sean Payton since 2010, 15 games.

Their only non-cover of that time period was three weeks ago at home as 3 point favorites against the 49ers, a 3 point win and push. Even that game should not have been that close, as they won despite losing the turnover battle by 2. They had 23 first downs to 12 for the 49ers and could have won by much more if it wasn’t for a muffed punt and a fumbled pick six. New Orleans at home is almost always as auto-bet. They’re 30-13 ATS as home favorites since 2008, including 27-10 ATS under Sean Payton.

This line would ordinarily suggest these two teams are even, as home field advantage is usually 3 points. They are very evenly matched teams. The Panthers rank 1st in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. The Saints, meanwhile, are 2nd, as they move the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. In terms of DVOA, the Panthers are 3rd, as opposed to 4th for their opponents.

However, 3 points is not the appropriate adjustment for the Saints’ home field advantage. This line should be at least 5 or 6, instead of 3, even if we agree these two teams are even, which I think they are. The Saints also usually dominate after a loss, going 20-8 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 16-4 ATS under Sean Payton. They’re also 11-3 ATS at home at night since Drew Brees came to town in 2006. They should put up a dominant performance here. I’m very confident they’ll win by at least 3. It’s worth noting I’m 12-0 ATS picking Saints games this season.

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 8-3

The Panthers’ near loss in Miami was by far their least impressive game since their loss to the Cardinals week 5. However, it’s understandable that they would have a letdown game after two huge wins. The fact that they still came out with a win on the road is pretty impressive. They’ll have to avoid another letdown game this week at home for Tampa Bay before they go to New Orleans next week. The Panthers still have a very good chance at 12 wins and an outside shot at winning the division and getting a first round bye.

Week 12 Studs

C Ryan Kalil

LE Charles Johnson

DT Kawaan Short

Week 12 Duds

QB Cam Newton

RG Nate Chandler

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-8) at Carolina Panthers (8-3)

At first glance, Carolina definitely seems like the right side here. Tampa Bay’s fluky win in Detroit last week moved this line 2.5 points, from 11 to 8.5, from last week to this week. That’s significant. The reason I call Tampa Bay’s win in Detroit last week fluky is because they won the turnover battle by 5. That’s really inconsistent on a week to week basis. In fact, teams who have a turnover margin of +5 in a game have an average turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. Going off of that, the Buccaneers scored 24 points despite just 10 first downs. Teams are 16-34 ATS since 1989 off of a game in which they scored 21+ points despite 10 or fewer first downs.

It’s very clear now that the Buccaneers are better than their 0-8 start would have suggested. They have two All-Pro caliber players in Darrelle Revis and Gerald McCoy and another borderline All-Pro in Lavonte David, so, ever since Mike Glennon took over under center, they’ve been no pushover. However, I don’t feel like they’re underrated like they used to be anymore thanks to last week’s win. This line is much smaller than I expected, to the point where I think we’re getting line value with the Panthers.

The Buccaneers are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, which ranks 25th in the NFL. The Panthers, meanwhile, are 2nd, moving them at a 79% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 12, right around where it was last week, rather than 8.5 like it is now. In spite of that, the public is actually all over Tampa Bay. I love fading the public, especially when they’re on an underdog. On top of that, the Panthers are 5-0 as 6+ point favorites in since 2011, winning those 5 games by an average of 20.0 points per game. They’ve always done a good job of blowing out bad teams in the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era, including blowing out Tampa Bay 31-13 a few weeks back.

However, there are some really strong situational trends holding the Panthers back. They have to go to New Orleans next week, while Tampa Bay only has to host the Bills. Divisional home favorites are just 18-51 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002, which is one of the most powerful trends out there. As for the Buccaneers, divisional road underdogs are 103-71 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining those two together sort of, home favorites are 52-86 ATS before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. The Buccaneers will almost definitely be much more focused for this game than the Panthers. I’m not going against an 18-51 ATS trend, but I’m not confident in Tampa Bay at all.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +8.5

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-5)

The Panthers have established themselves as a top level team with wins over the Patriots and 49ers in the past 2 weeks, winning both by a touchdown or less, despite going 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less since the start of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era in 2011. That type of thing is inconsistent in the long run, so that’s no surprise. Their success this season shouldn’t be seen as a surprise either.

In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. Also, in their final 12 games of the season, after moving Luke Kuechly to the middle, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. They also had a strong draft, adding both Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short. This is a legitimate top level football team.

On the season, the Panthers are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a differential that is 2nd in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are not nearly as good as their record. They are missing three starters from their offensive line, Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito obviously, as well as Mike Pouncey, their talented center who will miss his 2nd straight game with an illness. They beat the Chargers last week, but that was because the Chargers were in a sandwich game situation on the East Coast at 1 PM as a West Coast team and also missing their talented left tackle King Dunlap.

The Dolphins’ offensive line wasn’t very good before they lost starters and they’re even worse now. They move the chains at a mere 71% rate, largely because of their offensive line, while their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That differential is actually 30th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be about 8 instead of 4, so we’re once again getting a ton of line value with the Panthers.

The Panthers also have always done a great job of blowing out bad teams in the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. They are 5-0 as 6+ point favorites in since 2011, winning those 5 games by an average of 20.0 points per game. The Dolphins aren’t underdogs of 6 or more, but you could argue they deserve to be. The Panthers should be able to blow them out here. The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Panthers could be flat off of two huge wins, but they’re good enough to blow out the Dolphins even if they are a little flat. The Panthers are also my Survivor Pick for this week.

Carolina Panthers 27 Miami Dolphins 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Panthers, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)

It’s almost always a bad idea to bet against Tom Brady as an underdog. In his career, Brady is 29-13 ATS as an underdog and 40-15 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than 3. It makes sense. This is the same Tom Brady who still feels slighted by being taken in the 6th round 13 years ago. He’s at his best when people doubt him and all the talk this week is about how the Panthers have finally arrived (news flash: they’ve been arriving all season). However, we might not be getting enough points to confidently take the Patriots here.

The Panthers have been a dominant team this season, especially over the past 5 weeks, which include 4 wins by 14+ points and a 1 point win in San Francisco last week that was easily the biggest victory of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. They are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 68% for their opponents, a differential is that 2nd in the NFL. The Patriots, meanwhile, haven’t been the same this year as they usually are. Their offense is moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential this is 9th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 7.5.

Of course, the Patriots had easily their best game of the season before the bye, beating the Steelers 55-31. Not only did they score 55 points, but they didn’t rely on their defense very much to do so, as they had 610 total yards and 33 first downs. It’s very possible that Tom Brady and his receivers are finally on the same page. Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are healthy now and will only be healthier coming off of the bye and rookie Aaron Dobson seems to be coming around. That trio had at least 100 yards and a touchdown between them. The ball also looked to be coming out of Brady’s hand better.

There’s no guarantee they’ll continue to be an improved offensive team going forward, but it’s certainly not something I’d put past them, especially with Shane Vereen expected back to provide Tom Brady a much needed high percentage target on a check down and a needed change of pace in the running game. Remember, he had 159 all-purpose yards week 1 before getting hurt and he should be close to 100% in his first game back because he wasn’t dealing with any sort of leg injury. Defense was a problem against Pittsburgh, but the Patriots are expected to get top cornerback Aqib Talib back for this one and they’ve generally had a strong defense on the season.

I think it’s safe to say that the Patriots are better than they’ve played this season, but the extent to which they are is still unknown. If Brady and this offense come out like they did against Miami 3 weeks ago, they might have trouble getting out of single digits against this Carolina defense. I really wish we were getting at least a field goal with the Patriots, especially since the Panthers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon (at Miami next week). Teams are 69-47 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2008. The Patriots, meanwhile, have to take on Denver next week. At the end of the day, Tom Brady as a dog is basically an automatic bet-on at this point, but I’m not confident at all.

Carolina Panthers 20 New England Patriots 19

Pick against spread: New England +1.5

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (+3)

Record: 6-3

I had the Panthers at 12-4 before the season. That prediction looked dead in the water when they started 1-3, but they’ve won their last 5 games, the first 4 by 14 or more and last week by 1 point over the 49ers in San Francisco, by far their most impressive victory of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. This close win came after they started 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less in the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. Ron Rivera has gone from a candidate to be fired to a candidate for Coach of the Year. I don’t know if they’ll win 12 games or win the division (they still have to play New England once and New Orleans twice), but they’ll make the playoffs and they’ll be very dangerous in the post-season.

Week 10 Studs

LG Travelle Wharton

Week 10 Duds

RB Jonathan Stewart

RG Nate Chandler

DT Star Lotulelei

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