Panthers

Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 10 (+2)

Record: 5-3

The Panthers have won 4 straight by 14 or more. Every team since 1990 that has won 4 straight games by a combined 80 points or more with at least a 14 point or higher margin in each game has made the playoffs. Of course, the teams they beat are a combined 6-27. This week will be a real test as they go to San Francisco and face an equally hot 49er team. I think they have enough to at least be competitive. They lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 81% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. They rank 3rd in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They’re 3rd in point differential. We’ll know a lot more about this week after this week. They have a tougher schedule going forward, with two against the Saints and one against the Patriots, in addition to this San Francisco game, but I still think they have a chance to win the division and at least make the playoffs. They’re only a game behind New Orleans at this point.

Week 10 Studs

C Ryan Kalil

CB Drayton Florence

Week 10 Duds

None

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Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

Team X is one of these teams. Team X has an explosive offense led by a dual threat quarterback drafted in the 2011 NFL Draft that moves the chains at an 81% rate and scores 25.5 points per game. They have a shutdown defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 69% rate and allows opponents to score 13.3 points per game, the 2nd best in the NFL. Their secondary doesn’t have a lot of recognizable names, but they are playing well as a unit and they are supported by a fantastic front 7, led by a big name, recognizable middle linebacker. Their rate of moving the chains differential is best in the NFL and their point differential of +98 is the 3rd best in the NFL and the best in the NFC. In terms of DVOA, they are 3rd in the NFL.

You might think Team X is the 49ers and the 49ers are certainly a very good football team, but that aforementioned Team X is actually the Carolina Panthers. The 49ers are scoring a few more points per game, scoring 27.3 points per game, but they allow significantly more, allowing 18.1 points per game. Their point differential of +73 certainly is very good, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s, coming in 5th. In DVOA, they come in 6th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. That differential is a solid 9th in the NFL, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s.

If you use rate of moving the chains to calculate a line, it would say that Carolina should be favored by 3 points. I don’t agree with that and you obviously can’t follow that blindly. The 49ers have been playing much better football over the past 4 games as compared to their first 3 games and they were so good in 2011 and 2012 that you can safely throw out the first 3 games of the season as a fluke. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL. But the Panthers are too. At the very least, we’re getting significant line value with the Panthers at +6.5. Remember, the Panthers are ranked higher than the 49ers by Football Outsiders in DVOA. In spite of this, most of the action is on San Francisco and the line is actually moving down. That suggests it’s a trap line and/or the sharps are on Carolina.

The 49ers could also be caught looking forward to the Saints next week. Teams are 61-85 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Panthers face the Patriots next week back in Carolina, but that’s a different story. For one, New England is a non-conference opponent so it won’t be as big of a distraction. They could also be favorites, especially if they have a good showing here this week. I think the Panthers will play this one close and possibly even win.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Carolina Panthers 23

Pick against spread: Carolina +6.5

Confidence: High

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)

The Panthers are better than their record. They are a few plays away from 6-1 and have the 5th best point differential in the NFL, on the strength of the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 3rd best rate in the NFL. Unfortunately, Vegas knows this too as this line is pretty high at 7.5. We are getting some line value with the Panthers as I have this line calculated at -10, but not a ton. The Panthers also always seem to blow out bad teams and lose close games to decent or better teams. After last week’s 31-13 win over the Buccaneers, they are now 4-0 ATS under Cam Newton as favorites of 6 or more, winning by an average of 19.0 points per game.

The Falcons are in a good situation too though. Teams are 96-55 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use as a cutoff for your sample size. They also usually bounce back well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, going 20-7 ATS off of a loss since he took over in 2008, including 7-0 ATS as an underdog. The Panthers, meanwhile, could be distracted with a trip to San Francisco on deck. Favorites of 7 or more are 37-71 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 7 or more. Atlanta could be distracted as well with a home game against the Seahawks on deck, but they really need this divisional game to save their season so they should be focused. As long as the line is bigger than 7, I’m going to take the Falcons, but I’m not confident.

Carolina Panthers 30 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +7.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 12 (+2)

Record: 4-3

Don’t look now, but the Panthers are a few plays away from 6-1 and have the 5th best point differential in the NFL, on the strength of the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 3rd best rate in the NFL. Vegas knows how good they are and they probably will only be underdogs in 3 or 4 more games (vs/at New Orleans, at San Francisco, vs New England). I think this is a playoff team in the NFC. They are currently tied for a wild card spot in the loss column.

Week 8 Studs

LT Jordan Gross

LE Charles Johnson

Week 8 Duds

None

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)

The Panthers are much better than their record. Only 4 teams (Denver, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle) have better point differentials than the Panthers, who are 2nd in the NFL to only Kansas City in points per game allowed. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential is 2nd best in the NFL. They are a few plays away from being 5-1. In terms of DVOA, they are 6th.

That being said, this line would seem to take into account that Carolina is better than their record. The odds makers aren’t stupid. Also, the Buccaneers too are better than their record. They are 0-6, but, with the exception of a loss in New England by 20, all of their games have been relatively close, including 3 losses by a field goal or less and 4 losses by 8 points or less, which is pretty relevant considering the spread is at 6.5. In terms of DVOA, they are ranked 24th and last week they were the highest ranked 0-5 team in DVOA history.

That being said, I like the Panthers for three reasons. One is that they always seem to blow out bad teams and lose close games to decent or better teams. After last week’s 30-15 win over the Rams, they are now 3-0 ATS under Cam Newton as favorites of 6 or more, winning by an average of 19.3 points per game. In 2011, the year the Buccaneers went 4-12, the Panthers beat them twice by an average of 25.5 points per game. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if the Buccaneers went 4-12 again this year.

The Buccaneers did get revenge on the Panthers last year, though, as they were the ones who won both times. Unfortunately, that puts them in a bad situation here. Teams are 110-82 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who beat them twice the previous season. Normally I ignore the revenge game factor, with a few exceptions, because there is no trend supporting it and because I generally subscribe to the theory that if a team beat you once, it makes it more likely they’ll do it again, not less. That being said, there is a trend supporting this and it makes sense. If you’re favored, that generally means you are better or equal to an opponent and the fact that they beat you previously shouldn’t matter.

Third, Tampa Bay has to go to Seattle next week and they could be really distracted to play against arguably the best team in the NFL on their home turf. Teams are 33-65 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, including 25-51 ATS as dogs. Meanwhile, teams before being 14+ point underdogs, which the Buccaneers currently are projected to be, are 4-20 ATS in that time period (2-18 ATS as dogs) and 27-50 ATS dating back to 2002. Finally, divisional home dogs are 5-22 ATS since 1989 before being 14+ point dogs. This is a terrible spot for the Buccaneers and I expect another Carolina blowout.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (-3)

Record: 3-3

The Panthers are much better than their record. Only 4 teams (Denver, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle) have better point differentials than the Panthers, who are 2nd in the NFL to only Kansas City in points per game allowed. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential is 2nd best in the NFL. They are a few plays away from being 5-1. They have 3 losses, but they are only a half game out of a playoff spot in the NFC and tied in the loss column. If they can avoid more close losses (easier said than done for this team), they could easily be a playoff team.

Week 7 Studs

QB Cam Newton

LG Travelle Wharton

DT Star Lotulelei

Week 7 Duds

RG Chris Scott

C Ryan Kalil

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St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Panthers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)

The Panthers seem to make a habit out of blowing out bad teams and suffering gut wrenching losses to solid or better teams. There’s plenty of talent on this football team. They’re moving the chains at a 79% rate, while their opponents are doing so at a 72% rate, the 6th best differential in football. If they can ever figure out how to win close games, they’re going to be a dangerous team (2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less since 2011). Record in games decided by a touchdown or less usually evens out over the long run, but at this point I’m skeptical if that will be the case in Carolina as long as Ron Rivera is the Head Coach.

Fortunately, that shouldn’t matter here as the Panthers have a very easy opponent in the Rams. Yes, the Rams are 3-3, but their first win came by a field goal and their 2nd win came against Jacksonville. On paper, their 3rd win looks more impressive, a 38-13 victory in Houston. However, that came was very fluky. The Rams won by 25 points despite losing the yardage battle by 204 and the first down battle by 12. This was as a result of winning the turnover battle by 4, including two return touchdowns.

That’s not a sustainable way to win football games. Since 1989, only 35 teams have won games despite losing the first down battle by 10 and the yardage battle by 200. Also, since 1989, teams are 13-23 ATS after a game in which they lost the first down battle by 10+ and still won the game by 10+. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued off of fluky wins like that.

On the season, the Rams are still moving the ball at a 72% rate offensively, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They are 26th in DVOA, as opposed to 8th for Carolina. They’re the type of team Carolina has had no problem blowing out in the past. There’s a reason the odds makers made this spread 6. This is the 3rd time Cam Newton has been favored by 6 or more in his career. He covered each of the first two times, winning the two games by an average of 21.5 points per game.

The situational trends also favor the Panthers. Whereas the Rams have a huge divisional matchup with the Seahawks next week, which could serve as a distraction, the Panthers go to winless Tampa Bay next week, so they should be completely focused. Non-divisional home favorites are 47-22 since 2008 before being divisional road favorites. Meanwhile, non-divisional road dogs are 49-74 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs. I’m very confident we’re getting a blow out here.

Carolina Panthers 27 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: Carolina -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (+2)

Record: 2-3

The Panthers seem to make a habit out of blowing out bad teams and suffering gut wrenching losses to solid or better teams. There’s plenty of talent on this football team. They’re moving the chains at a 79% rate, while their opponents are doing so at a 72% rate, the 6th best differential in football. And they get three easier games on their schedule coming up, as they host St. Louis and Atlanta and then go to Tampa Bay. They could easily be 5-3 in a few weeks. I’m not going to predict a playoff spot for this team, but if they can ever figure out how to win close games (2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less over the past 2+ seasons) they’re going to challenge for 10 wins.

Week 6 Studs

FB Mike Tolbert

LG Travelle Wharton

TE Greg Olsen

CB Captain Munnerlyn

Week 6 Duds

None

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (-8)

Record: 1-3

The Panthers had 8 of my top-200 players before the season and I stand by that, but their lack of depth has made my 12-4 prediction look foolish for this team. Outside of those 8 (Cam Newton, Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Ryan Kalil, Jordan Gross, Greg Hardy, Charles Johnson, Luke Kuechly) no one on their roster is reliable and they are terribly coached. They’re still better than their record. Their defense is very strong and they are still outscoring opponents on the season. They are moving the chains on 77% of opportunities, while allowing opponents to do so on 72% of opportunities, the 7th best differential in the NFL.

Week 5 Studs

RE Greg Hardy

ROLB Thomas Davis

DT Kawaan Short

MLB Luke Kuechly

Week 5 Duds

None

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Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

I can’t quit the Panthers. They’re clearly not going 12-4 like I thought they would at the start of the season. I can admit that because it’s clearly wrong and because I was right about pretty much everything else. But they’re not as bad as they’ve looked. They could easily be 3-1 right now. They are outscoring opponents on the season. They are moving the chains 76% of the time offensively and allowing opponents to do so 72% of the time defensively, the 7th best differential in the NFL. They are DVOA’s #10 ranked team, which is right around where they finished last season. The defensive front 7 has been every bit as good as I thought it would be, though their lack of offensive supporting cast around Cam Newton has been very noticeable and their coaching staff is a lame duck. As bad as they’ve looked, they are not equal to the Vikings, which is what this 2.5 line suggests.

The Vikings are one of the things I’ve definitely been right about. I had them winning 5 games at the start of the season (one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer every season) and they’ve started the season 1-3. Last year’s 10-6 record was largely the product of a non-human season from Adrian Peterson, a strong record in close games (5-0), and some of the best injury luck in the NFL. Now they are 0-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, Adrian Peterson is on pace for about 400 yards less than he rushed for last season, and they’ve had injuries to guys like Kevin Williams, Chris Cook, and Christian Ponder (though the latter hasn’t really hurt). They are moving the chains 71% of the time offensively and allowing opponents to do so 78% of the time, the 4th worst differential in the NFL.

All of the trends favor the Panthers as well. The Panthers struggled on the road last week in Arizona, but they should be more comfortable in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover in their 2nd straight road game and teams have gone 93-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers about 65% of the time historically, no matter what year you use to cut off the sample size. Also, underdogs are 57-26 ATS off a loss as favorites before being favorites. The Panthers host the Rams next week and lost as favorites in Arizona last week. Finally, dogs are 76-45 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs. The Vikings go to the Giants next week. This would be my Pick of the Week this week if I hadn’t already lost twice with the Panthers as Pick of the Week, but I can’t help but love this play.

Carolina Panthers 20 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: High

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