Panthers

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)

Obviously, I can’t do this write up without mentioning the tragedy that happened Saturday Morning. Early Saturday morning, Chiefs’ starting middle linebacker Jovan Belcher murdered his girlfriend at their house and then came to the Chiefs’ practice facility and committed suicide in front of several teammates and coaches, including Head Coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli.

Obviously, my sympathies go out to his murdered girlfriend (RIP) and their newborn baby, but it’s very, very hard for me to feel sympathetic for Belcher, who died a murderer and a man who destroyed a family and left his newborn baby orphaned. If Belcher had simply committed murder and gotten arrested and hauled off to jail for the rest of his life, we would feel no sympathy for him at all. He would be remembered as a murderer and a criminal and I don’t see why that should be any different now. Yes, it’s clear he was mentally ill, but don’t you have to be to kill someone?

Anyway, there’s simply no way to know how this will affect this game. I really don’t. I don’t even feel good talking about football in relation to this incident. I can’t imagine how anyone will feel playing football a day after this incident and that goes for both the Chiefs and the Panthers. They might not even play the game, though reports say that the Panthers have been told to continue with their travel plans as normal in expectation of a game being played.

Will the Chiefs come out the way the Colts did after Chuck Pagano left the team to undergo chemotherapy (I don’t feel good comparing Pagano and Belcher)? Will the Chiefs come out completely flat and looking like a team that just lost a teammate to a murder/suicide with members of the team and coaching staff watching? How will this affect the Panthers? I don’t have answers to these questions. I don’t think anyone does. I don’t think the players do. We don’t even know if there’s going to be a game.

My original pick was going to be the Chiefs for a unit. Teams tend to do well as road favorites after a win as road favorites, going 50-30 ATS since 2002, a situation the Panthers are in, but teams are 18-10 ATS in their 3rd straight home game as dogs, and 12-6 ATS off 2 losses, a situation the Chiefs are in. Teams are also 32-61 ATS as non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs since 2002 and the Panthers host the Falcons next week.

Non-conference road favorites are 2-8 ATS before being divisional home dogs since 2002, 3-16 ATS if we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size. There’s no line value either way (real line is at Carolina -3), but the fact that Brady Quinn is now the Chiefs’ quarterback may give us some line value, as well as the fact that the Panthers rank 19th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, though just 25th in net points per drive, which is how I compute line value.

I really was just planning on going with the Chiefs because the public is pounding Carolina and the public always loses money in the long run and that 3-16 ATS trend is hard to ignore, but just for a very small play. I’m going to stick with that because I have even less of a clue now. If there was ever a time for a zero unit pick, this would be it and this game should be dead last in confidence pools. We don’t even know if this game is going to be played.

Public lean: Carolina (80% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 9 KC 2

Final update: Sharps didn’t have a clue before the Belcher shooting (picks are due by 2 PM ET on Saturday for LV Hilton, which is barely after the shooting) and I doubt that incident would have cleared things up for them. I still have no clue here.

And by the way, I’m perfectly fine with this game being played. The Redskins played after Sean Taylor’s death and it’s not like the NFL is forcing the Chiefs to play. The Chiefs decided to play because they want to play. Very few people know what they’re going through and even if you do, who are we to tell them how to grieve?

Carolina Panthers 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (-110) 1 unit

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Carolina Panthers: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 29 (+4)

Record: 3-8

Net points per drive: -0.46 (25th)

DVOA: -4.4% (19th)

Weighted DVOA: -4.2% (19th)

Tier 6: Not going to make the playoffs, but they can pull some upsets down the stretch

Studs

QB Cam Newton: 18 of 28 for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 drops, 100.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 34 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 scrambles, 5 of 8, 1 drop), rushed for 52 yards (26 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 14 attempts, 4 broken tackles

FS Sherrod Martin: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

LE Charles Johnson: 3 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

RB DeAngelo Williams: Rushed for 21 yards (19 after contact) on 11 attempts, 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt, 1 drop

LT Jordan Gross: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

RG Garry Williams: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 2 attempts

LOLB Thomas Davis: Allowed 4 catches for 13 yards on 4 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Eagles, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)

I was expecting the Eagles to be favored in this one and I was going to make a big play on Carolina for several reasons. The first and most obvious is that the Eagles appear to have quit. Even if they haven’t, they have really struggled to cover as favorites in the last 2 seasons, going 5-13 ATS in this situation. This was also a sandwich game situation for them, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs.

Teams are 58-81 ATS in this spot since 2008. The logic is that good teams in that situation will see this game as an easy rest game to get back on track and not take their opponent seriously and that bad teams don’t deserve to be favorites in the first place. Philadelphia is the latter. Proving bad teams struggle as favorites, home favorites are 27-38 ATS since 2008 before being road dogs in two straight. The Eagles go to Dallas and Tampa Bay in their next 2.

In fact, unless they’re favored at home week 15 against Cincinnati or week 16 at home against Washington, Philadelphia might not be favored the rest of the way (5 games). Favorites before being dogs in 5 or more straight are 11-24 ATS since 2008. Favorites after being dogs in 3 straight are also 39-53 ATS since 2008, a situation Philadelphia is in. All of these are ways of showing that bad teams struggle to cover as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Panthers would have been dogs before being favorites, going to Kansas City next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot in the last 2 years. Combining that trend with the sandwich game trend, teams are 111-56 ATS as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs since 2008. On top of all of this, the Panthers are coming a home loss in overtime, a situation teams are 45-29 ATS in since 2002, including 19-10 ATS off a loss as home dogs.

However, when this line opened mid week (there was some speculation that Vick might return), the Eagles opened as 2.5 point dogs, which ruined what could have been a big play. That’s a ridiculous 5.5 point line movement from where this line was last week (Philadelphia -3). I know the Eagles are horrible and going into this one without LeSean McCoy, but that kind of line movement is reserved for a franchise type quarterback getting hurt.

It’s a bit of an overreaction and costs us all line value. Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be Carolina -1.5 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Philadelphia -8. Those two average at about the Philadelphia -3 we were at before. Of course, those numbers don’t truly take into account how terrible this team is, especially now that they seem to have quit on Head Coach Andy Reid and new quarterback Nick Foles (there are rumors that Reid was afraid to bench Vick earlier in the season for fear he’d completely lose the team). However, there’s definitely no line value with the Panthers at all here.

I still like the Panthers to win and cover, but the line movement (accompanied by a slight public lean on Carolina in a week where the odds makers seem due for a big week after a rough 3 week stretch), makes things more complicated. It also knocks out a ton of good trends. The Panthers are still coming off a loss as home dogs in overtime and one more trend does open up. Contrary to what’s maybe logical, road dogs with 2 wins or fewer do actually tend to cover. In week 9 or later, teams with 2 wins or fewer are actually 10-4 ATS since 1989, meaning they’re generally road favorites for a very good reason. It’s a small lean on the Panthers as long as the line is 3 or fewer.

Public lean: Carolina (60% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 8 PHI 2

Final update: No surprise this was the 3rd least picked game of the week by the sharps. Why would anyone want to pick either of these teams? No change here.

Carolina Panthers 19 Philadelphia Eagles 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Carolina Panthers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 2-8

This team’s struggles in close games in the 4th quarter get more ridiculous every game. How did they blow that 21-10 late lead? After losing in overtime to the Buccaneers last week, Cam Newton is now 1-11 in games decided by a touchdown or less. The good news is he’s 7-7 in all other games and if he were even average in close games, this would have been a .500 team over the past few seasons. However, look at his career stats in the 4th quarter when the game is within 7 points: 65 of 123 (52.8%) for 887 yards (7.2 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  That’s an issue.

Studs

QB Cam Newton: 16 of 29 for 252 yards and a touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 spike, 2 hit as thrown, 2 drops, 96.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 20 of 34 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 scrambles, 7 of 15, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away, 2 hit as thrown), rushed for 40 yards (11 after contact) on 11 attempts, 2 broken tackles

LOLB Thomas Davis: Allowed 6 catches for 39 yards on 6 attempts, 12 solo tackles, 3 assists, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

SS Charles Godfrey: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 batted pass

FS Haruki Nakamura: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles

DT Dwan Edwards: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

RE Greg Hardy: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback hurries on 46 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

Duds

C Geoff Hangartner: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts

LG Amini Silatolu: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 31 yards on 11 attempts

RG Garry Williams: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempts

WR Louis Murphy: Caught 1 pass for 12 yards on 3 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Ron Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Buccaneers have really turned it around lately and are now road favorites in Carolina, pretty crazy considering they were road dogs in Oakland a couple weeks ago, 6 point dogs in Minnesota the week before that, home dogs for the Saints the week before that, and then just 4 point home favorites against the Chiefs the week before that.

You could argue that they don’t deserve to be road favorites, at least not in Carolina, against an underrated Panthers team that is playing much better defense since their bye and who has only lost 2 games by more than a touchdown all year. The yards per play differential method says Carolina should be 5 point favorites, though the rate of sustaining drives differential method says Tampa Bay should be 2.5 point favorites (Carolina is one of the reasons I created the new stat). Still, if you average those out, you don’t get that Tampa Bay should be road favorites here. The Panthers are also home dogs after a loss as home dogs, a situation teams are 57-39 ATS in since 2002.

That being said, I don’t want to get in the way of Tampa Bay right now. If you showed me tape of this team before the bye, I wouldn’t recognize them. Josh Freeman is 90 of 154 for 1467 yards, 13 touchdowns, and an interception in his last 5 games, going 4-1, with the only loss being a winnable one that went down to the last play.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly and opening thinks up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Josh Freeman has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL.

This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.4% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 20 of 42 for 838 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. On the year, Freeman is completing 56.8% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He ranks 7th in the NFL in QB rating, ahead of established veteran quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo, as well as young hot shots like Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck.

Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David. Even before the bye, they did not lose a single game by more than a touchdown. Their +51 points differential is tied for 5th in the loaded NFC with the Giants, one point behind the Packers, and tied for 9th in the NFL, with Green Bay and Baltimore in striking distance. It’s a small play on the Buccaneers, who are a league leading 7-2 ATS on the season.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (80%)

Sharps lean: CAR 14 TB 11

Final update: No change.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2 (-110) 1 unit

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Carolina Panthers: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 2-7

Last week’s loss was only their 2nd loss by more than a touchdown all year. They aren’t to be overlooked the rest of the way. Cam Newton is obviously having a major sophomore slump, but for all of their offensive struggles, they’ve been noticeably improved defensively this year. They’re allowing 3 points per game fewer than they were last year and even more impressive is that they’re doing this with Jon Beason and Chris Gamble out.

In fact, since week 6, their first game without those two, they’re allowing just 21.4 points per game, thanks to guys like Luke Kuechly and Greg Hardy breaking out. The rookie Kuechly has really improved over the last few weeks, probably because he moved back to his collegiate position of middle linebacker from the outside, and is now a defensive player of the year candidate. It’ll be interesting to see if his emergence in the middle leads to Jon Beason (owed 6.5 million in 2013) getting cut. The man who gave him that ill advised massive contract, ex-GM Marty Hurney, has already been fired and all of his guaranteed money has been paid.

Studs

C Geoff Hangartner: Did not allow a pressure on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

RG Jeff Byers: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

TE Greg Olsen: Caught 9 passes for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 5.6 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps

LE Charles Johnson: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 pass deflection

MLB Luke Kuechly: 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 5 stops, caught 2 passes for 38 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

FS Sherrod Martin: Allowed 2 catches for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

QB Cam Newton: 21 of 36 for 241 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 4 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, pressured on 18 of 45 drop backs (7 sacks, 1 scramble, 2 of 10, 1 interception, 4 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)

LG Amini Silatolu: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 4 attempts

RT Byron Bell: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 4 attempts

RB Jonathan Stewart: Rushed for 31 yards (20 after contact) on 8 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass block snaps, caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 2 attempts

WR Brandon LaFell: Caught 4 passes for 29 yards on 5 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 6.5 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

WR Steve Smith: Caught 1 pass for 19 yards on 4 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch

WR Louis Murphy: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 1 penalty

CB Captain Munnerlyn: Allowed 6 catches for 51 yards on 7 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 3 punt returns for 10 yards

CB Josh Thomas: Allowed 5 catches for 97 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Thomas Davis: Allowed 4 catches for 25 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle

DT Dwan Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Frank Alexander: 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Panthers

Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6)

The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules, with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and two against Kansas City. They should coast to a great record and at least the #3 seed in the AFC.

That being said, this game won’t be a walk in the park for them. The Panthers are an underrated bunch right now. Despite their record (2-6), they have only 1 loss by more than a touchdown and that was on Thursday Night Football against the Giants. I don’t put too much stock into what happens on Thursday Nights because it’s so tough to prepare to play a team on 3 days rest, so I don’t really hold that against Carolina too much, especially since that was week 3 and they’ve been competitive every week since.

Even weighting that loss to the Giants equal to the rest of their games, we are still getting line value with the Panthers. Using the yards per play differential method, we get Denver -1 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, we get Denver -5. If we average those out, we get Denver -3, which is 1.5 points lower than where this spread currently is. Also remember, while Denver has played a very tough schedule thus far, Carolina comes from by far the tougher of the two conferences. The AFC is just 13-23 against the NFC this year.

Carolina is also in a good spot as home dogs off a win as road dogs; they won as road dogs in Washington last weekend. Teams are 27-19 ATS in this spot since 2008 and if we go all the way back to 1989, that trend becomes 122-82 ATS. Meanwhile, they are probably dogs before being favorites. The early line for their game against Tampa Bay next week is Carolina -1.5, though that could change. Teams are 89-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, though that trend does shrink to 65-47 ATS since 2008 when the current game is non-divisional and their next game is divisional. Carolina could overlook non-conference Denver for Tampa Bay, I guess, but Denver is much more likely to overlook “crappy” non-conference Carolina.

Denver is also in a good spot as road favorites off a win as road favorites. Teams, in general, tend to cover in their 2nd straight road game. It’s most powerful when dealing with road dogs off a road loss, but road favorites off a win as road favorites is a trend too and Denver won as road favorites in Cincinnati last week. Teams are 48-29 ATS since 2002 in that spot. However, Denver is a massive public lean, the biggest of the week.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. I think I’d be crazy to bet on Denver this week, given the circumstances, especially with some trends in Carolina’s favor. If there’s a sharps lean on this game, I might consider boosting it to a 3 unit significant play and make a play on the money line too.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 16 CAR 8

Final update: Didn’t see that coming. I’m not boosting this to 3 units, but I’m not dropping any units either. Denver is the biggest public lean of the week.

Denver Broncos 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +4.5 (-110) 2 units

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Carolina Panthers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 30 (-1)

Record: 2-6

Last week I mentioned that Cam Newton is 1-10 in his career in games decided by a touchdown or less. Well, the good news is that he’s 6-7 in his other 13 games. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. If that were the case in his 11 close games, he’d have around a .500 career record, instead of being 7-17, which wouldn’t be bad considering that they don’t have a great supporting cast. Meanwhile, as disappointing as his 2012 has been, they have the exact same record through 8 games as they did last year, when Newton was the next big thing.

This year, he has just one loss by more than a touchdown and that was on Thursday Night, when it’s understandable for a young quarterback to have a bad game. They have just a -31 points differential this year and while they rank 29th in rate of sustaining drives differential, they are 3rd in yards per play differential. They’re an underrated team who could continue to surprise people like they did to Washington last week. For the record, last year I thought Newton was overrated and this offseason he was given too high of expectations, but now that he hasn’t met them, people have soured on him and he’s become underrated.

Studs

RT Byron Bell: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 37 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

LE Charles Johnson: 3 sacks and 7 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles

RE Greg Hardy: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 6 stops, 3 missed tackles

CB Josh Thomas: Allowed 1 catch for -9 yards on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Captain Munnerlyn: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 6 catches for 31 yards on 9 attempts

Duds

RG Jeff Byers: Allowed 2 pressures on 29 pass block snaps

WR Louis Murphy: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps

RE Frank Alexander: Didn’t record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

DT Dwan Edwards: 2 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 3 assists, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

MLB Luke Kuechly: Allowed 6 catches for 67 yards on 8 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 5 assists, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Thomas Davis: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 3 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 46 yards on 5 attempts

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Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Commanders, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (1-6) at Washington Redskins (3-5)

This is one of two trap lines I identified this week. According to this line, the Redskins and the Panthers are comparable teams with Washington as 3 point home favorites. However, Washington is at 3-5 and the Panthers are at 1-6. Because of that, the action is on Washington and yet, the line is still falling as it opened at -4. As is almost always the case, when something is too good to be true with betting, it usually is. Let’s look at some reasons why this line makes more sense than it first appears to.

For one, the trends are against Washington. Favorites before being dogs off a loss as dogs are 56-81 ATS since 2008. That makes sense. This type of game tends to be a breather game. They’ve just suffered a loss to a tough opponent and they have enough tough opponent coming up. They could easily see this is an “easy win” game just to get back on track and get caught overlooking their opponent. The Redskins are coming off a loss to the Steelers and in their next game they host the Eagles and they probably will be dogs in that one.

The Redskins are going on bye next, but that doesn’t seem to have much effect on this spread. Teams in this situation before a bye are 2-6 ATS since 2008. Going back to 1989 to get more of a sample size, teams are 22-33 ATS in this spot. Anyone can win on any given Sunday in the NFL and the Redskins aren’t good enough to overlook an opponent and still win. They are really just Robert Griffin. As we saw against Pittsburgh, they live and die with him. Carolina was the exact same way last season and they still are this year, with Cam Newton. Newton is struggling this year, but you have to like his chances to get back on track against Washington’s crappy defense. If that happens, the Panthers can definitely win a shootout.

The Panthers are in a good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 77-47 ATS as road dogs off a road loss. Off a road loss of 1-3, teams are 17-6 ATS as road dogs, including 14-5 ATS when their previous game was one in which they were dogs. If we go back to 2002 to get a larger sample size, those trends are 39-23 ATS and 32-17 ATS respectively.

Looking at the methods of calculating real line, this line makes sense. Using the yards per play differential method, this one should actually be Carolina -0.5 thanks to Carolina’s 5th place rank in yards per play differential. However, Carolina is one of the reasons I decided to create a complimentary statistic known as rate of sustaining drives to use along with yards per play to determine “real” line.

Yards per play overrates teams that get a lot of big plays, but struggle to stay on the field or don’t allow a lot of big plays, but struggle to get off the field defensively. Those are the exact same teams rate of sustaining drives differential underrates because what rate of sustaining drives differential cares about is how often you convert a given set of downs for a first down or a score in comparison to how often your defense allows the opponent to do so. Because of this, they work in tandem well together.

Sure enough, Carolina is really bad in this statistic, ranking 29th. Still, in spite of that, that metric gives us a real line of just Washington -9. If we average those two out, we get right between -4 and -4.5. We’re getting a line bit of line value with the Redskins, but not much and it still makes this line make a lot more sense. Washington is awfully banged up right now and the trends favor Carolina. I’m not going to fall for this trap line, so I’m taking the road team.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: CAR 7 WAS 5

Final update: This is one of my only big plays that doesn’t coincidence with a heavy sharps lean, but I have no reason to change this pick. I still like Carolina.

Carolina Panthers 28 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Carolina +3 (-100) 4 units

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Carolina Panthers: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 28 (-2)

Record: 1-6

Cam Newton is now 1-10 in his career in games decided by a touchdown or less and 6-17 overall. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. However, it’s very troubling that Newton has started his career this way.

Typically, franchise quarterbacks are the exception to that rule and have a better than average record in games decided by touchdown or left. Cam Newton isn’t close to that at this point in his career. He’s still got plenty of upside, but it’s become increasingly obvious that we anointed him too fast. Unfortunately for him, because of that, he’s being viewed as a major disappointment this year, when really he’s just going through growing pains. I still have confidence in him long term.

Studs

WR Steve Smith: Caught 7 passes for 118 yards on 15 attempts on 46 snaps, 1.2 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

LE Charles Johnson: 2 sacks and 6 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 2 stops

MLB Luke Kuechly: 11 solo tackles, 6 stops, allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 2 attempts

RE Greg Hardy: 3 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries, 2 solo tackles, 5 stops

RE Frank Alexander: 4 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

QB Cam Newton: 20 of 39 for 314 yards and 2 interceptions, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 3 batted passes, 63.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 43 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 scrambles, 5 of 11, 1 throw away, 1 interception), rushed for 37 yards on 5 carries, 1 fumble

RT Byron Bell: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 3 attempts

LG Amini Silatolu: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 5 attempts

C Geoff Hangartner: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 26 yards on 13 attempts

RG Jeff Byers: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

TE Greg Olsen: Caught 3 passes for 23 yards on 5 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps

CB Josh Norman: Allowed 8 catches for 84 yards on 11 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

DT Nate Chandler: Didn’t record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, no tackles

ROLB James Anderson: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

P Brian Nortman: 3 punts for 77 yards, 2 returns for 11 yards, 22.0 net yards per punt

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