Panthers

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bears, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (1-5) at Chicago Bears (5-1)

I normally hate laying more than a touchdown, but I like the Bears this week for several reasons. The first reason is simply that I think they’re the best team in the league in this wide open NFL (the undefeated Falcons have played a cupcake schedule and won their last 3 by a combined 12). The Bears sit at 5-1 and their only loss was in Green Bay on Thursday Night. I’m not saying don’t count that game, but you shouldn’t put too much stock into a team playing poorly on the road against a good team in short rest when they’ve played very well the rest of the time, especially when they lost running back Matt Forte early in the game.

Other than that, they’re 5-0 on the season and with the exception of last week’s game against the Lions, they’ve won all 5 games by 16 or more. Even last week’s 13-7 win over the Lions was way more lopsided than the final score indicated as they held a shutout and a 13 point lead with about 30 seconds to go before Detroit got a late garbage time touchdown.

With that exception of back door cover and the Green Bay game, they’ve covered every game this season and they would have covered this 7.5 point spread on every game as well. And they’re not playing bad teams either, with the exception of Jacksonville. St. Louis and Indianapolis look like more impressive blowouts now than when they happened. Dallas is a playoff contender and they lost by 16 at home  (24 until a garbage time score). Detroit isn’t terrible. Carolina is probably the 2nd worst team they’ve played this year.

Dating back to last year, Jay Cutler is actually 10-1 in his last 11, with that one loss being the Green Bay loss, further proof of how fluky that loss was. Those 5 straight wins he had last season before getting hurt came by margins of 29, 6, 6, 24, and 11 and the Bears covered in all 5. Dating back to 2010, Jay Cutler is 23-10 straight up over the last 2 and a half years, including playoffs. This year, they’re even better because of the addition of Brandon Marshall.

Because the Bears are the best team in the league, in my opinion, I feel we’re getting line value with them and the usual metrics of measuring “real” line agree, which is the 2nd reason I like the Bears this week. The yards per play method says this line should be only -3 in favor of Chicago because these two teams actually have the same yards per play differential (3 points for home field advantage). This isn’t because Chicago is bad in that statistic. In fact, they rank tied for 7th. However, Carolina is particularly good in that statistic.

Carolina is one of the reasons I decided to create a complimentary statistic known as rate of sustaining drives to use along with yards per play to determine “real” line. Yards per play overrates teams that get a lot of big plays, but struggle to stay on the field or don’t allow a lot of big plays, but struggle to get off the field defensively. Those are the exact same teams rate of sustaining drives underrates because what rate of sustaining drives cares about is how often you convert a given set of downs for a first down or a score in comparison to how often your defense allows the opponent to do so. Because of this, they work in tandem well together.

Sure enough, Carolina is really bad in this statistic, ranking 31st, while Chicago is around where they are in yards per play differential, ranking 4th. The “real” line calculated using this metric says Chicago should be -17. Again, neither one of these metrics alone is right, especially with that kind of difference, but we can use them together to get a much better estimate of “real” line. In this case, Chicago should be around -10 and that’s counting all of Chicago’s games equally, which I don’t think is the case because I feel the Green Bay game was fluky. We’re getting line value with the Bears.

The 3rd reason is all of Carolina’s injuries. Already a struggling team, Carolina will be without Ryan Kalil, Jon Beason, and Chris Gamble for this game and likely without all 3 for the season. That’s a huge loss. Ryan Kalil is not their best offensive lineman because of left tackle Jordan Gross, but he’s easily a top-3 center in the league. Beason is not the player he was 2 years ago, but his absence still hurts because it means up and down rookie Luke Kuechly will have to become an every down player and Thomas Davis will have to become a starter. Davis has had 3 torn ACLs as a pro, so it’s unclear if his knees can handle that. Meanwhile, Gamble is not only their best defensive back, but he’s also their only good defensive back and, when healthy, one of the better and more underrated cornerbacks in the league.

The 4th reason is that Carolina could be really flat this week. They had very high hopes for this season, only to start 1-4. They put everything into last week against the Cowboys off a bye and still lost a close one at home. Now their season is effectively over. Cam Newton’s body language looked really bad in his press conference and GM Marty Hurney has been fired. They’re missing key players. This game means nothing to them anymore and they could be really flat and just get blown out by a very good Chicago team that seems to be blowing out everyone.

The 5th reason is the only relevant trend I could find, but the Bears should be in a good spot off a close win over the Lions on Monday Night. Teams are 22-13 ATS off a divisional win of a touchdown or less on Monday Night, excluding teams coming off a bye. You might say, well that game wasn’t as close as the final score would suggest. That is true, but teams are 10-6 ATS off a Monday Night shutout, 5-2 ATS off a divisional Monday Night shutout. Favorites off a divisional shutout in general are 34-22 ATS.

The 6th and final reason is something I’ve referenced in most of my picks. I expect the disparity between favorites and dogs to close up. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year. Neither dogs nor favorites have gone more than 10 games above .500 in a given year in at least the last decade. Because of that, any time you can take a favorite without betting on a heavy public lean (there’s a slight public lean on Chicago right now), you have to do it unless there’s a good reason not to. These games work double for the odds makers. They make them money (they always make money on slight leans because of the juice) and they help the disparity close so the public doesn’t start locking in on dogs. I like Chicago for a small play.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: CAR 21 CHI 0

Final update: This is weird. I’m dropping a unit down.

Chicago Bears 31 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Carolina Panthers: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 1-5

After last week’s loss to the Cowboys, which dropped them to 1-5 on the season, Cam Newton said in a post game interview “something’s gotta change.” Well, maybe this will appease him. GM Marty Hurney was fired Monday Morning. For Hurney, it was about 2 years too late. At the very least, he should have been fired after their 2-14 season in 2010, along with John Fox. Since then, the only good move he made was drafting Cam Newton.

Everything else, from the rest of their 2011 draft to overpaying players such that they were a 6-10 team over the cap coming out of last season, has been a failure. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, it’ll be a year or two for the new front office to clean up this mess because they won’t have much cap space this offseason. Fortunately, they should have another top-5 pick.

As for this season, it appears to be a lost cause after coming into the season with so much hope. Not only are they 1-5 in the tougher conference (they’re the only 1 loss team in the NFC), but they’ve lost Ryan Kalil, Chris Gamble, and likely Jon Beason for the season. Kalil is not their best offensive lineman because of left tackle Jordan Gross, but he’s one of the top-3 centers in the league. Gamble is not only their best defensive back, but their only good one. Beason, meanwhile, isn’t the player he was two years ago, but his loss still hurts. His loss means up and down rookie Luke Kuechly will have to play an every down role, while Thomas Davis, an injury prone linebacker who had torn his ACL 3 times as a pro, will have to step into the starting lineup and see more snaps than maybe his knees can handle.

With Hurney being fired, there has been some talk that the coaches, including Head Coach Ron Rivera, should go along with him. I agree and disagree. I believe defensive coordinator Sean McDermott should be fired and I don’t even know if I’d wait for the end of the season. He’s a terrible defensive coordinator and that dates back to his days in Philadelphia. As for the Head Coach and the rest of the coaching staff, I say keep them in place. The last thing Cam Newton needs right now is an unnecessary coaching change and I don’t think the change would be necessary yet. Just ask Alex Smith how much he wishes he had some consistency as a young quarterback.

Speaking of Cam Newton, he made headlines this week for something he didn’t even do as mentor Warren Moon called criticism of Newton “racial.” If I were Newton, I’d tell Moon to shut up immediately. All he’s doing is damaging his credibility. Do I think Newton is being overly criticized? Yes, he’s a young quarterback who is just having a sophomore slump and I still don’t have much doubt that he’ll be a franchise quarterback long term. I also think he was overrated after last season and has too much pressure on him.

That being said, he’s a quarterback and a high profile athlete. Quarterbacks are overly criticized in general. It’s nothing specific to him. Look at Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler etc. Those guys are all above average quarterbacks who have had people question whether they should even be starting in this league at times after bad games. There’s nothing racial about the criticism of Cam Newton. In fact, he brings some of it on himself by doing all these commercials, which is why he’s so high profile, and then not backing it up on the field. That’s why he gets the criticism, while someone like Matt Stafford, having an equally disappointing year, doesn’t get it as much.

I really hope Newton isn’t listening to Moon and making excuses for himself like that. The only way he’s going to meet his potential is if he takes responsibility and blaming criticism on race is not doing that. Plus, it’s 2012. No one cares Cam Newton is black. Warren Moon is the only one bringing it up. It’s like Morgan Freeman says. The way to end racism is to stop talking about race. End rant.

Studs

ROLB James Anderson: 11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, allowed 4 catches for 25 yards on 5 attempts

Duds

RG Byron Bell: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps

DT Dwan Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Panthers

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-4)

Why does it seem like no matter who is coaching the Cowboys, they seem to continue to make the same dumb mistakes? Last week, they dominated throughout essentially, but were frequently penalized, something that’s been an issue for them all year and dating back to last year. They had trouble getting the plays off and had to burn several timeouts. Still, Dez Bryant had a chance for a game tying 2 point conversion, but he dropped it. The Cowboys then recovered the onside kick, but mismanaged the game clock, forcing Dan Bailey to kick from 51 instead of possibly from closer and he predictably missed, giving Baltimore the 2 point victory.

Coming off of that type of loss, it’ll be very interesting to see how they respond to playing the 1-4 Panthers. Most likely, it won’t be positively. Teams are 54-78 ATS as favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs, 17-30 ATS when the next game is divisional. Next week, they play the Giants. That game will be in Dallas, so Dallas will not be dogs, but the logic remains the same. Why would the Cowboys focus on the Panthers with the Giants coming up next? They’ll probably just view this as a chance to get an easy victory and get back on track before they play a real team.

For Carolina, this could be their Super Bowl. They’re coming off a bye, sitting at 1-4, and no one really thinks much of them anymore. Remember, however, this was a popular playoff pick before the season and one of their own players, Ryan Kalil, took out a newspaper ad to promise they would win the Super Bowl. They have an awful lot of pride and won’t just roll over like some other 1-4 teams might.

People who read this frequently know I love to go on and on about yards per play differential. Well, I have another metric that I think works well with yards per play differential, which I’ll go to in a second. First, if you take the difference between Dallas’s yards per play differential and Carolina’s, divide by .15 and add 3 points to Carolina’s side for home field advantage, you get a line of Carolina -1, which suggests 3 points of line value with the Panthers.

One issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other. The Panthers are a perfect example of the type of team yards per play differential overrates. They’re 10th in that statistic, but just 29th in this new metric.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4thdowns. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, Dallas is at +2.7%, while Seattle is at -10.5%. The difference between the percents is 13.2, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of Dallas -6, so we’re not really getting line value either way. I also wish Carolina wasn’t missing top cornerback Chris Gamble, but this is still a small play on the Panthers.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 16 CAR 8

Final update: No change.

Carolina Panthers 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Carolina +2 (-110) 2 units

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Carolina Panthers: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 19 (-6)

Record: 1-4

Cam Newton’s career record: 7-14. Have we overrated him? Well, that seems to be the common theme this week. However, it’s more likely he’s just having a sophomore slump. These are just the growing pains you would expect from such a young quarterback. He should be fine long term. Remember, he’s led this team to 23.7 points per game in his 21 starts. It’s not his fault the defense is allowing 26.4 per. He came into a team with little to no hope and has made them relevant again. This team is a long ways away from being a competitor, but let’s not hop on the overreaction bus with Cam Newton.

Studs

C Ryan Kalil: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 1 attempt

RT Byron Bell: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Luke Kuechly: Allowed 2 catches for 28 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 6 solo tackle, 6 assists, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 4 blitzes

Duds

QB Cam Newton: 12 of 29 for 141 yards, 3 drops, 1 hit as thrown, 2 batted passes, 65.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 35 drop backs (4 sacks, 1 scramble, 1 of 7, 1 hit as thrown)

RB DeAngelo Williams: Rushed for 6 yards (6 after contact) on 6 attempts, 1 fumble, no catches on 1 attempt

RG Garry Williams: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 4 attempts

WR Steve Smith: Caught 4 passes for 40 yards on 11 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 penalty

DT Ron Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles

DT Dwan Edwards: 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

I love exploiting home/road discrepancies, so Seattle is one of my favorite teams to bet on (or against). I’m 4-0 picking their games this year simply following the concept of betting on them at home and against them on the road, all 4 of which were significant plays. They are 29-14 ATS at home since 2007 and 14-29 ATS on the road. This year, that has been especially true as they’ve lost twice as road favorites and won twice as home dogs.

Carolina, meanwhile, is a much underrated team. I said this last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week with them (actually I nailed all 3) as they hung within 2 points of Atlanta in the Georgia Dome and almost pulled a shocking upset. The reason they are is because of how many turnovers they committed in the first 3 games.

That might seem counterintuitive, but let me explain. Turnovers tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. The average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of +5 one week is the same as the average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of -5. They’re right around at +0.0. In fact, that’s the case for every turnover differential bracket. That’s why I wasn’t shocked at all that they were even in turnovers with the Falcons last week, despite Atlanta leading the league in turnover differential and Carolina being dead last.

Turnovers aside, they rank 5th in the league in yards per play differential. Seattle, meanwhile, ranks 17th, right in the middle with an even +0.0. An old gambling formula says to take the difference of the differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field. The difference for these two teams is .7 in favor of Carolina, so this line should be -7.5 in favor of Carolina and that doesn’t even take into account Seattle’s struggles on the road. The line is, instead, -3.

Carolina is also heading into a bye this week, so that should keep this team from falling into the breather game trap as favorites after losing as a dog and before being a dog (Carolina plays Dallas after the bye). Teams in that breather situation are normally 52-78 ATS since 2008. However, before a bye, they are 15-19 ATS since 1989 (I go back to 1989 because there’s no enough results going back to just 2008), which is pretty even. There’s also no guarantee they will be home dogs to Dallas, so that’s not really applicable. One thing that is applicable is that they are heading into a bye. Teams are 31-17 ATS since 2002 going into a bye off a loss of 3 or fewer, 14-5 ATS off divisional loss and 18-8 ATS as favorites.

Given what I’ve said above, you’re probably thinking this will be a big play. However, there are several things keeping this from being a pick of the week. For one, this is Seattle’s 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to be undervalued in this situation because teams seem to find road games easier the 2nd time around. This makes sense as several teams don’t go home at all in between road games so they’re much more used to not being home.

Since 1989, teams in their 2nd straight road game lose by an average of 2.0 points, as opposed to road teams coming off a home game, who lose by 3.1. Overall, road teams lose by 2.8 points (which is why we use 3 points for home field advantage). This trend is strongest for dogs coming off a loss as dogs (59-38 ATS since 2008), but coming dogs coming off a loss as favorites also is a trend. Since 2008, teams are 10-4 ATS in that situation, though going back to 2002 it’s just 24-17. The Seahawks, meanwhile, as bad as they are on the road, are 4-4 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2007.

Another reason why Carolina isn’t a pick of the week is that they’re expected to be missing top cornerback Chris Gamble. Gamble is not someone most bettors know about. In fact, this line hasn’t moved at all in spite of his expected absence, but he’s one of the better cornerbacks in the league and played at a borderline Pro Bowl level last year. That’s a big loss for a Panthers team that already ranks just 20th against the pass. Still, I don’t trust Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense to take advantage. I also don’t get to bet against the public if I take Carolina, which I love doing, but I can’t always do it and Carolina feels like the right side. It’s not a pick of the week, but it’s a significant play.

Public lean: Carolina (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Sharps lean: CAR 13 SEA 9

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still like Carolina.

Carolina Panthers 24 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -3 (-110) 3 units

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Carolina Panthers: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 19 (+0)

Record: 1-3

Last week, I said they were better than they looked against the Giants and they showed it against the Falcons, leading late and only losing by 2. Their decision not to go for the clincher and go for it on 4th down was head scratching, considering all the resources they put into their running game, and their defense’s inability to stop the Falcons from getting into field goal range late starting from the shadow of their own end zone is troubling. However, this team does rank 5th in the league in yards per play differential and can play spoiler to some teams down the stretch.

Studs

QB Cam Newton: 15 of 24 for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 2 drops, 104.5 adjusted QB rating, rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown on 9 carries, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, pressured on 9 of 31 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 1 of 5, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 1 throw away)

TE Greg Olsen: Caught 6 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 3.2 YAC per catch, run blocked for 48 yards on 4 attempts

LT Jordan Gross: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

LE Charles Johnson: 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 7 stops

LOLB Luke Kuechly: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, allowed 2 catches for -4 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

LE Frank Alexander: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

RT Byron Bell: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 5 attempts

WR Brandon LaFell: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 31 pass snaps

FS Haruki Nakamura: Allowed 4 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

ROLB James Anderson: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, allowed 3 catches for 23 yards on 4 attempts

RE Thomas Keiser: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

The Carolina Panthers looked terrible on national television last week, turning the ball over 5 times en route to a 36-7 home loss to the Giants. The Falcons, meanwhile, looked great last week, forcing 4 turnovers, while committing only one of their own, en route to a 27-3 road win in San Diego. The Falcons are 3-0 with wins over Denver and San Diego, while Carolina is 1-2 with their only win coming against a 0-3 New Orleans team. Atlanta has the league’s best turnover differential at +10, while Carolina has the league’s worst at -6. Atlanta is also awesome at home. They’ll dominate the turnover battle and win this ease right?

Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the public is pounding the Falcons.  If this year is any indication, the public perception is normally wrong. That’s why the odds makers are rich. On games with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is just 4-12 this year. This game fits that description. However, there are several reasons why I think Carolina has a good chance to cover.

For one, they actually rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, while Atlanta ranks 10th. Carolina’s point per play differential is .8 yards better than Atlanta’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” Using that, Carolina should actually be FAVORED by 2.5 points. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s definitely worth noting.

So why is there such a big difference between the two teams’ records and their yards per play differential? Well, turnover differential is obviously a huge part of it, but I find yards to be a much more consistent stat. Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5, like the Panthers did last week, have a turnover differential of +0.0 in their following game since 2002. Meanwhile, teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002.

Unlike people think, the Falcons won’t necessarily dominate the turnover battle and dominate this game. History suggests that each team will have an equal amount of turnovers and that will make whichever team can outgain the other the team that’s most likely to win. I know it’s been only 3 games, but if this season is any indication, that team is Carolina.

Three more good trends work in Carolina’s favor. Carolina is coming off a Thursday Night game, so they’ll be well rested. Teams in this situation are 109-89 ATS on Sundays. The Panthers are also coming off a blowout loss, which, however counterintuitive, is a positive trend for them this week. Teams coming off embarrassing losses (28 points or more) are 99-69 ATS since 2002. Those teams tend to be undervalued by the odds makers after because of overreaction to one week. Carolina is also dogs before and after being favorites coming off a loss, a situation teams are 46-21 ATS in since 2002. Teams tend to be extra focused for a tough opponent coming off an upset loss, knowing that there’s an easy game on the horizon.

The Panthers aren’t really undervalued here because there hasn’t been any line movement from last week to this week, despite what happened with these two teams last week, but it’s very possible that the odds makers are just doing that to keep this a “too good to be true” line and setting the public up to fail, as they do so often. This game has all the looks of a game where the odds makers murder the public again. I’m not falling for it.

Carolina is a much better team than they’ve looked this season, especially than they looked last week, while Atlanta has been very reliant on turnovers this year. Atlanta could also be flat this week against an inferior team after finally having been anointed as the top team in the NFC. The only reason this isn’t a very large play is because of how good Atlanta is at home with Matt Ryan (26-5 SU, 21-9 ATS), but they’re just 6-4 ATS in the division and we have some room with this big line and touchdown protection, so this is still a fairly large play and my co-pick of the week.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CAR 14 ATL 7

Update: My 3 co-picks of the week all coincide with the 3 strongest sharps leans of the week. Feeling good.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +7 (-110) 4 units

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Carolina Panthers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 22 (+3)

Record: 1-2

The Panthers looked horrible at home on Thursday Night, but they were the inferior team and superior, veteran, proven teams always have the advantage over teams like the Panthers. The good news is that they still rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential. They’re getting killed in turnover differential, with a -6, tied for worst with the Eagles, but that tends to even out over time. Well rested, they go into a tough test in Atlanta this week and I think they have a better shot than people are giving them, even if the Falcons are awesome at home.

Studs

RT Garry Williams: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

Duds

QB Cam Newton: 16 of 30 for 242 yards, 3 interceptions, 2 batted passes, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown, 2 throw aways, 56.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 33 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 1 of 3, 1 hit as thrown), rushed for 6 yards (18 after contact) and a touchdown on 6 carries

WR Brandon LaFell: 1 catch for 27 yards on 4 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions when thrown to

SS Charles Godfrey: Allowed 3 catches for 34 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Antwan Applewhite: Did not record a pressure on 12 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LE Charles Johnson: 1 quarterback hit on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

WR Joe Adams: 2 special teams fumbles, 1 punt return for 0 yards, 5 kickoff returns for 105 yards

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New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Giants, Panthers

New York Giants (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)

If you haven’t read Jason Whitlock’s article about how hypocritical Roger Goodell is pretending he cares about player safety, while simultaneously expanding Thursday Night Football to a season long thing and trying to expand the season to 18 games, here it is. It’s a very good read and yet another reason to hate Thursday Night Football. You may be thinking, how can you hate Thursday Night football? It’s another night of football. Yes, but it’s also sloppy football and if it’s a good matchup, it’s cheating us out of the opportunity to watch it under normal circumstances.

Last week it was Packers/Bears, two bitter rivals and two of the better teams in the National Football League, and what we got, because it was on Thursday, was a sloppy mess of two tired and unprepared teams. If that game had been on Sunday Night football or Monday Night football or time slot other than Thursday Night Football, it would have probably have been one of the best games of the week. Instead, it was painful to watch.

If you don’t believe me, look at the over/under record for as far back as there is data (1989). Since 1989, the over has won 50 times and the under has won 66 times. These are typically games that are much lower scoring than they are expected to be and than they probably should be, and on top of that, it risks injury for players playing tired. Roger Goodell has never played football. He doesn’t understand that, or maybe he just doesn’t care.

The one good thing about Thursday Night Football, it’s pretty easy to make money off of if you’re a bettor. I mentioned the over/under trend, I’m basically going to be betting the under on every Thursday Night game for the rest of the season and history suggests I’ll win at a rate of about 57%. The total for this game is a whopping 51 and I don’t give these teams much of a chance to reach that, especially with the Giants playing banged up offensively (more on that later). I rarely bet over/under, but I’m putting a unit on the under this week.

The other easy way to make money off Thursday Night Football is just to bet the home team. It makes sense. When you have just 3 days to prepare for a game, every day counts and if you have to spend half a day or a full day travelling, you’re at a huge disadvantage. Since 1989, the home team has covered 66 times, to 46 for the road team, which is about a 59% clip. I loved this trend last year and I went against it last week, only because I had a good reason. The Packers had really struggled the week before and the Bears had not, so the Packers would have more to work on during the week and be at a bigger disadvantage on a short week. Apparently not. From now on, I’m taking the home team on Thursday Night unless I have a very good reason not to and even then, I wouldn’t bet heavily on the road team like I did last week.

So do I have a good reason this week? Well, there are a few things working in the Giants’ favor. For one, they’re a much better road team than home team over the past few years. I love exploiting home/away disparities. I very rarely bet on the Seahawks on the road and almost always bet on them at home. Before last year, I did the opposite with the Dolphins, though that seems to no longer be the case. The Giants, meanwhile, are 38-18 ATS on the road since 2006 and 22-30 ATS at home. On top of that, they’re a much better team in the 1st half of the season than the 2nd. They’re 41-26 ATS during the first 9 weeks of the season under Tom Coughlin, and straight up, they’re 48-18 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. The other good thing working for the Giants is that they’re road favorites here and road favorites are actually 23-20 ATS on Thursday Night.

However, this is a tough spot for the Giants on a short week as favorites before being dogs, going into Philadelphia next week. Favorites before being dogs are 43-59 ATS since 2011. The Giants could be very flat this week on short rest against the “lowly” Panthers with a huge game in Philadelphia on the horizon. The Giants are also incredibly banged up. Ahmad Bradshaw is out and Tom Coughlin doesn’t trust the rookie David Wilson yet, so Andre Brown will start at running back for them. Meanwhile, wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon are both out and Coughlin doesn’t trust the rookie Reuben Randle, so Ramses Barden will draw the start opposite Victor Cruz. The injury situation is not nearly as bad for the Panthers. Jonathan Stewart is looking like a game time decision, but they have plenty of running back depth to compensate.

Leading off of the Giants’ injuries, there’s also a lot of line value here. The line has barely moved in spite of all these injuries and I think there was line value to begin with. The Panthers should probably be something like -2 or -3 here at home, especially on Thursday Night. I don’t think the difference between the Panthers and the Giants, when banged up this bad, is that different. Yards per play is the single most accurate measure of how a team is playing. The Panthers rank 2nd in yards per play differential, while the Giants’ yards per play differential is negative. I know it’s been just two games, but the schedules have been pretty even between these two teams. Both have played Tampa Bay, but Carolina went to Tampa Bay and New York got them at home, while Carolina has hosted New Orleans and the Giants have hosted the Cowboys.

I’m not necessarily saying the Panthers are a better team than the Giants, but they’re pretty equal with them right now with the Giants having all of their injuries and they should be able to cover as home dogs on Thursday Night, with the Giants possibly being more focused on the Eagles in Philadelphia next week. One final thing, rather than putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line as underdogs, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. 1 point games account for about 2% of NFL games and even then, it’s a 50/50 chance that the Panthers win by 1. I don’t want to pay the extra 20 cents to get protection from a 1 point Giants win, which has about a 1% chance of happening.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Carolina Panthers 24 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Carolina +1.5 (-115) 0 units

Over/Under: Under 51 (-110) 1 unit

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