Panthers

Carolina Panthers: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 23 (+1)

Record: 1-1

The league’s #2 ranked team in terms of yards per play differential: the Carolina Panthers. You can’t tell a ton from that after just 2 games and I still think they’re weak defensively where it matters, on the defensive line and in the secondary, but they have a very good chance to pull the upset at home on Thursday Night this week against the Giants, who, by the way, have a negative points per play differential. Home teams have a clear advantage on Thursday Nights, as home teams have won 74 of the last 118 Thursday Night games and have covered at a record of 66-46-4 ATS.

Studs

QB Cam Newton: 14 of 20 for 253 yards and a touchdown, 2 throw away, 1 drop, 112.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 23 drop backs (2 scrambles, 1 sack, 3 of 6, 2 throw aways), rushed for 75 yards (47 after contact) and a touchdown on 13 yards, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble

WR Steve Smith: 3 catches for 104 yards on 4 targets on 23 pass block snaps, 18.3 YAC per catch

CB Chris Gamble: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 assist, 2 stops

Duds

RG Geoff Hargartner: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 1 attempt

MLB Jon Beason: 4 catches for 66 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 3 assist, 1 stop, 4 missed tackles

CB Captain Munnerlyn: Allowed 5 catches for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, 1 special teams tackle

DT Sione Fua: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Panthers expect Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart to play, Greg Hardy questionable

stevenlourie News, Panthers

Jonathan Stewart missed the opener against the Buccaneers and yet he has more rushing yards than DeAngelo Williams, who ended up for -1 rushing yards last year as the Buccaneers, owners of the league’s 31st ranked run defense in 2011, held them to 10 yards on 13 carries, even though the Panthers had the league’s #1 run offense in 2011. That should prove to be a fluke, especially with Jonathan Stewart returning. Cam Newton will continue to run the ball well and open things up on the ground for Stewart and Williams. Williams will get the start this week, but Stewart will have a sizeable role as a backup, as usual. Neither is much more than a low end RB2 or flex play this week though.

Steve Smith, meanwhile, is also expected to play this week, as he normally does through minor injuries. He missed some time during the week in practice, but he’ll be good to go and serve as Cam Newton’s #1 receiver again. When he led the team with 7 catches for 107 yards in the opener, it marked the 12th time in Cam Newton’s 17 starts that Steve Smith led the team in receiving. There might be more productive wide receivers, but it’s hard to argue any receiver means more to his team than Smith does, when you consider their other options.

Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers have listed defensive end Greg Hardy as questionable with a knee injury and he’s expected to be a game time decision. If he has to sit, it would be a big loss for the Panthers. He’s not a well known player, but he was an above average pass rusher last year. With 4 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback pressures on 503 pass rush snaps, he had a pass rush rate of 8.9%, very solid. The Panthers had the league’s 27th ranked scoring defense last year and didn’t do much at all to upgrade the defensive line or the secondary, the two more important units. They need Hardy this week against a Saints offense that you know can go off at any time, even as discombobulated as they looked in the opener.

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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)

I thought the Saints would be alright even after the offseason they just had. Their defensive losses weren’t huge (Will Smith was even reinstated for the opener and Jonathan Vilma is incredibly overrated) and the loss of the coaches would mostly effect the offense, where Drew Brees would function well as a stabilizing force. They certainly didn’t look alright in the opener, losing to home, where they won all 9 games last year, and while they may be better later in the season, once they have a few more games under their belt without Sean Payton, they won’t look like the normal Saints early in the season.

So can the Saints beat the Panthers in Carolina if they’re not the normal Saints? Well, they certainly could. This is still a talented team. There is a major question though as this team goes on the road. They’re a great home team, but they have trouble on the road, especially outside and especially over the past 2 years, as they are 7-11 ATS on the road and 12-5 ATS at home.

Honestly, I don’t really have a strong opinion on this. Could the Saints come out like the Packers did on Thursdsay night, kill any talk of a down year and an 0-2 start to the season and demolish a divisional rival? Sure, they could. Drew Brees is 20-12 ATS off a loss as a member of the Saints and this is a key game. He is the type of quarterback who wins key games. Could the Saints also be more dysfunctional than we thought (or as dysfunctional as they looked in the opener) and come out and struggle to beat a Carolina team that is underrated off a loss to an underrated Bucs team? Sure they could. After all, the Panthers covered as home dogs against the Saints last year and almost won, losing by just 3 and I think we can all agree, this version of the Saints is inferior.

I want to go with the Panthers because the Saints are clearly the public lean and I love “fading” the public and the Panthers almost beat the Saints last year, but something tells me, after seeing the Packers play last night, that this will be a huge statement game for the Saints, and that they aren’t as bad as they looked last week, so I’m going with Drew Brees and his 20-12 ATS record as a Saint after a loss to bounce back this week.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3 (-105) 1 unit

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Carolina Panthers: Week 2 Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 21 (-2)

Record: 0-1

Jonathan Stewart has more rushing yards than DeAngelo Williams this year and he didn’t even play this weekend. The Buccaneers had the league’s 31st ranked run defense last year and the Panthers had the league’s 1st ranked run offense, so naturally the Panthers would rush for 10 yards on 13 carries against the Buccaneers week 1. I expect that to be a fluke and the Buccaneers were one of my underrated teams coming into the season, so there’s no shame in losing to them, but more concerning is Cam Newton’s performance. He completed 23 of 33 for 303 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions and looks more likely to have a sophomore slump than take the next step. If that’s true, the league’s 27th ranked scoring defense in 2011 will have to pick up the slack if they want to avoid another sub .500 season and I just don’t think they have the talent.

Studs

LT Jordan Gross: Allowed 1 quarterback pressure on 38 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

RT Byron Bell: Allowed 1 quarterback pressure on 38 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempt

WR Steve Smith: Caught 7 passes for 106 yards on 11 attempts, 1 interception when thrown to, 6.9 YAC per catch on 36 pass plays

RE Greg Hardy: 3 quarterback pressures on 25 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists and 3 stops on 29 run snaps

CB Captain Munnerlyn: Allowed 1 completion for 2 yards on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle and 1 stop on 19 run snaps

ROLB James Anderson: 6 solo tackles and 5 stops on 33 run snaps, allowed 3 completions for 12 yards on 3 attempts

Duds

LG Amini Silatolu: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback pressures on 38 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt, 2 penalties

RG Geoff Hangartner: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback pressures on 38 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt, 1 penalty

RB DeAngelo Williams: Rushed for -1 yards (12 yards after contact) on 6 carries, broke 1 tackle, 1 reception for 5 yards on 1 target

FS Charles Godfrey: Allowed 2 completions for 35 yards on 2 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops and 3 missed tackles on 36 run snaps

CB Josh Norman: 3 solo tackles on 23 run snaps, allowed 3 completions for 28 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty

LOLB Luke Kuechly: 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle on 28 run snaps, allowed 3 completions for 31 yards on 3 attempts

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Panthers expect Jonathan Stewart to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Panthers

Jonathan Stewart sprained his ankle in the Panthers’ final preseason game over a week ago, but even though it wasn’t a high ankle sprain, Stewart still did not practice all week and will be a game time decision for their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is especially frustrating for Stewart’s fantasy owners, because it’s a 4 o’clock start instead of a 1 o’clock start, meaning your options will be much more limited if you put him in your lineup and he’s ruled out before the game.

Stewart normally plays through minor injuries (as injury prone as his reputation would make him seem, he’s missed just 2 of 64 career games) and that’s why he’s a game time decision without practicing. However, the Panthers have plenty of other running backs and can definitely get away with starting DeAngelo Williams, with “fullback” Mike Tolbert as his primary backup this week, so they may shut Stewart down and try to preserve him for the rest of the season.

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Tampa Bay is one of my underrated teams. In case you haven’t been following throughout the offseason, what I attempted to do this year was identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams going into the season and then bet them pretty much blindly for the first few weeks of the season until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. I think the Buccaneers are somewhere in between the 10 win team they were in 2010 and the 4 win team they were in 2011.

In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010. It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better than 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games. There is definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, there’s no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012.

Their young defense should be better with another year of experience and they could get a bounce back year from Aqib Talib. They also get Gerald McCoy back from injury. McCoy is an incredibly valuable player when healthy. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers. However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season.

Eric Wright, though he was not worth his giant contract, will be an upgrade at cornerback over Ronde Barber, who has been moved to safety. They also add rookie safety Mark Barron to an improved defensive backfield and rookie linebacker Lavonte David to one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last year. The new coaching staff will also bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. They probably won’t be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should help this defense be more middle of the pack.

Offensively, they have the additions of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, as well as potential bounce back years from Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, key parts of their 2010 team. They also add running back Doug Martin in the first round of the draft. Gone is Kellen Winslow, but that might be a good thing. Of Freeman’s 22 interceptions, 9 were targeted for Winslow, most in the league. Davin Joseph is also gone for the year with injury, but he’s one of the most overrated players in the league so that’s not a huge deal. Josh Freeman probably won’t have the 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions he had in 2010, but he probably won’t have the 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions he had last year.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are a little bit overrated right now. I agree they’ll improve their 6 wins from last season (especially since their Pythagorean Expectation was about 7.5 wins last season), but I don’t think they’re quite a playoff team yet. Cam Newton could have a bit of a sophomore slump. He won’t be bad or anything, but this was the league’s #5 scoring offense that year. He can regress while still leading a good offense, just not the elite one they had last year. It’ll be up to the defense to compensate and I don’t think they can. The addition of rookie Luke Kuechly and the return of Jon Beason from injury in their linebacking corps will help, but they’re still weak on the defensive line and in the secondary, which are more important.

The Panthers will probably be about a 7 or 8 win team this year. I think they’re a year away. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, figure to be right in that same area, between the 4 they won last year and the 10 they won in 2010. These teams are pretty evenly matched, with Carolina having the better offense and Tampa Bay having the better defense. For that reason, this line should be Tampa Bay -3 because it’s in Tampa Bay, but it’s the opposite, Carolina -3. There’s a lot of line value with Tampa Bay, an underrated team, and I like them to win a close game between evenly matched teams at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Carolina Panthers 24 Upset Pick (+115)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3 (-130) 3 units

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Panthers place David Gettis on PUP, Brandon Hogan on IR

stevenlourie News, Panthers

David Gettis was in the mix for the Panthers #3 receiver job at one point this offseason, but he’s been on the active/PUP all offseason and has yet to practice. He’s still working his way back from a torn ACL that cost him all of last season and, rather than activating him, the Panthers have shifted him to the reserve/PUP list, which means he’ll miss at least 6 weeks. The Panthers have a bye week 7, so the earliest he’ll be eligible to return week 8.

In 2010, he caught 37 passes for 508 yards and 3 touchdowns as a mere 6th round rookie. That was actually the 2nd highest total on the Panthers that year as they really struggled to move the ball through the air with Jimmy Clausen under center. In his absence, Louis Murphy, acquired from the Raiders this offseason for a late round pick, will be the #3 receiver, but he’s missed 7 games in the last 2 seasons, so he’s no sure thing either. 4th round pick rookie Joe Adams could work his way into the mix in the middle of the season. With Steve Smith aging, wide receiver will be a position of need for the Panthers this offseason, unless 2010 3rd round pick Brandon LaFell can step up in his 3rd year in the league.

Brandon Hogan, meanwhile, was not even put on the reserve/PUP even though he was eligible. The Panthers just put him outright on IR, which is not a promising sign for his career. He’s really struggled to return from a torn ACL he suffered at the University of West Virginia way back in December of 2010. The injury caused him to slip about 2 rounds in the draft, as the Panthers snatched him up in the 4th round and he played just 4 games as a rookie. He’ll miss the entirety of the 2012 season.

Hogan won’t be guaranteed a roster spot in 2013. Once considered a candidate for the starting cornerback job, that position figures to be a weakness once again this year. Both Darius Butler and Captain Munnerlyn struggled there last year and Josh Norman is just a 5th round pick rookie. This could be another position of need next offseason.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Carolina Panthers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Greg Hardy

stevenlourie Panthers

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Carolina Panthers, that player is defensive end Greg Hardy.

The Carolina Panthers ranked 25th in the league with 31 sacks last year, in large part because only Charles Johnson (10) had more than 4 sacks on the league. While that may be true, that doesn’t mean the Panthers don’t have another good pass rusher. Greg Hardy, the opposite defensive end and leader in snaps played on their defensive line, had a very good year rushing the passer, but was very unlucky to end up with just 4 sacks.

Hardy ranked 12th among 4-3 defensive ends in both quarterback hits (8) and quarterback pressures (33). With 4 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback pressures on 503 pass rush snaps, he had a pass rush rate of 8.9%, very solid. For reference, his teammate Charles Johnson had 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures on 433 pass rush snaps, a rate of 11.1%.

Even if we use the weighted pass rush rate stat known as pass rushing efficiency (sacks * ¾ hits * ¾ pressures/pass rush snaps), Hardy’s rate was 7.5%, which ranked 12th among players who played a similar amount of snaps as him, right between Elvis Dumervil and Kyle Vanden Bosch, who had 12 sacks and 8 sacks respectively on 464 and 437 pass rushing snaps respectively. Hardy won’t necessarily need to improve as a player to break out as what’s commonly seen as a “better pass rusher.” However, heading into his 3rd year in the league as a 2010 6th round pick, Hardy could definitely improve as a player.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Mike Tolbert to replace Jeremy Shockey in Panthers’ offense

stevenlourie News, Panthers

When the Panthers signed Mike Tolbert this offseason, it was a head scratching move for both parties. Tolbert has rushed for 1225 yards and 17 touchdowns on 303 carries in the last 2 seasons, along with another 79 catches for 649 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has the talent to be part of a running back tandem somewhere in the league. Meanwhile, the Panthers already had two talented backs in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.

However, Tolbert reportedly wanted to go to Carolina, play for his hometown team, and raise his children in the Carolina area, even taking less money and touches to play there. At 8.4 million over 4 years, he was too good to pass on for the Panthers, even if they didn’t have an obvious role for his talents.

After he signed, there was a lot of speculation that the Panthers could trade either the overpaid DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart, who was in a contract year. The Panthers didn’t do that; instead they extended Stewart, and it was announced that Mike Tolbert would play full back and serve as a weapon out of the backfield as a pass catcher, which made sense because of his size (5-9 243 pounds) and his pass catching ability.

Now, Head Coach Ron Rivera has said that they view him as the replacement to Jeremy Shockey, a tight end who caught 37 passes for 455 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. He remains unsigned as of this writing, heading into his age 32 season. Rivera went on to explain that they used so many two-tight end sets last season because of the lack of a “true fullback,” and that Tolbert would serve that role. It’s also possible they could use him as a “move” tight end or h-back, as well. #2 tight end Gary Barnidge will not see the field as much as Shockey did for this reason. The 2008 5th round pick has just 12 career catches and is coming off a season ending injury, but the team is high on him.

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Carolina Panthers extend RB Jonathan Stewart

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Panthers

Between the Panthers’ 5 year extension to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers have committed a combined 43.5 million guaranteed to two different running backs, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, in the last 2 offseason. Last offseason, Williams got 5 years, 43 million with 21 million guaranteed and Jonathan Stewart now has received 5 years, 36.5 million with 22.5 million guaranteed in an extension, heading into a contract year.

Both are talented backs capable of being #1 backs, but that’s way too much money to commit to any one position other than quarterback. It makes no sense to essentially pay 7.3 million and 8.6 million per year respectively and commit 22.5 million and 21 million respectively to two players who will split carries at not even that important of a position

That’s especially true for the Panthers since Cam Newton is essentially their goal line back, gets about a 3rd of their carries, and is the guy who opens things up on the ground and allows both backs to average 5.4 YPC like they did last season. Stewart and Williams combined for just 297 carries last season. That’s not nearly worth the kind of money they’re paying them in what’s becoming less and less a running league.

However, I already bashed the Panthers for giving DeAngelo Williams that ridiculous extension last offseason, essentially giving him the kind of money that LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, and Arian Foster got this offseason even though he’s older than those two (already heading into his age 29 season), less talented, less durable, and splits carries.

The Panthers’ extension to Stewart is actually pretty well deserved as he heads into his age 25 season. This extension will take him through his age 30 season. He’s more than capable of carrying the load if given the opportunity. In 2009, his only real chance to be a lead back, he rushed for 1133 yards and 10 touchdowns on 221 carries, including 749 yards and 6 touchdowns on 134 carries in the final 8 games of the season, when a broken down Williams missed 3 games and managed just 349 yards on 67 carries and didn’t score. Also, while he has a rep for being injury prone, Stewart has only missed 2 games in 4 seasons. It is fair, however, fair to question if his durability would be the same if he were getting more carries.

Since the Panthers were very backed up against the cap this offseason, they figure to be even more backed up against it next offseason after this extension, so they could try to trade DeAngelo Williams, but I don’t think a lot of teams are going to want to take on his contract at his age. Cutting him, meanwhile, would lead to a 4.85 million dollar cap hit, which wouldn’t really help them out cap wise. These two deals will put them in a very bad cap situation for at least one offseason and restrict their ability to upgrade other parts of the team, which really need at coming off a 6-10 season.

They should have just let Williams go last offseason, made Williams the lead back and found a complimentary back. If they had done that, this extension would have made sense (assuming he proved he could carry the load without getting hurt), but they didn’t, so it’s a bit head scratching, but I don’t completely hate it, even if it is a ton of guaranteed money to commit to someone who has never carried the ball more than 221 times in a season. I mostly just hate the Williams extension even more. For reference, here’s my grade of the Williams signing from last offseason.

Grade: C

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