Patriots

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (7-6) at New England Patriots (10-3)

Both of these two teams are in great spots. The Dolphins are playing arguably the biggest game of their season (a must-win on the road against division rival New England), with no upcoming distractions, as their next game is a home game against Minnesota. The early line in the Minnesota game has them as 7 point favorites. Teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, including 18-6 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, a trend that is 39-15 ATS going back to 1989.

However, it’s not like the Patriots have any upcoming distractions either, with a trip to New York to take on the lowly Jets up next. The early line has them favored by 10. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002).

The Patriots are usually very good at home, in revenge games, and late in the season, which they have going for them here. The Patriots are undefeated at home over the past two seasons, winning 15 games by an average of 13.93 points per game and covering 11 times. Meanwhile, they haven’t lost to a divisional opponent twice in the same regular season since 2000, going 9-0 straight up and 9-0 ATS in same season divisional revenge games since 2001. Finally, they are 33-4 straight up in the 2nd half of the season since 2010, going 23-13 ATS, including 18-1 straight up at home, 12-7 ATS.

This line is too high for me to be confident though. The Patriots are just 10-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season since 2010 as 7+ point favorites and just 5-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more over the past 2 seasons. Besides, Miami is better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.64% rate, as opposed to 72.06% for their opponents, a differential of 2.58%. The Patriots are obviously very good, ranking 2nd, moving the chains at a 77.58% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.29%, but this line is still too high for me to be confident. The Patriots are my pick though.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (9-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-4)

On the season, the Patriots are moving the chains at a 78.05% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 4.90% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chargers move the chains at a 74.93% rate, as opposed to 73.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.29% that ranks 13th in the NFL. That suggests that this line is too high at 4, especially since the Patriots haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they have been at home over the past 2 seasons.

While they are undefeated 15-0 at home over the past 2 seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.93 points per game, they are just 7-8 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.20 points per game and going 5-10 ATS. This season, they are moving the chains at a 76.06% rate on the road, as opposed to 74.48% for their opponents, a differential of 1.58%. Meanwhile, they move the chains at a 79.73% rate, as opposed to 71.86% for their opponents, a differential of 7.87% at home.

However, when you consider that the Patriots have been significantly better since week 5, both at home and on the road, this line makes more sense. Their offensive line has settled in, Rob Gronkowski is back to 100%, and the braintrust of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick has made the mid-season adjustments once again, as they always do. Since week 5, they are moving the chains at an 82.37% rate, as opposed to 73.68% for their opponents, a differential of 8.69%. On the road since week 5, they are moving the chains at an 84.62% rate, as opposed to 74.44% for their opponents, a differential of 10.17%.

On top of that, the Patriots are in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 44-31 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss since 2008. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. This line is a lot more appropriate when you consider that they’ve been much better since the first 4 weeks of the season and that this is their 2nd straight road game.

The Patriots are in a bad spot as an East Coast team playing a night game on the West Coast, a situation teams cover in only about a third of the time because of how circadian rhythms work. However, the Patriots flew to San Diego right after the Green Bay play and will have spent a week there so there shouldn’t be any jetlag issues. Bill Belichick understands this stuff. The Chargers are also in a bad spot as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs next week with Denver coming to town. Teams are 15-30 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is 32-15 ATS in his career off of a loss. I’m taking the Patriots, but I’m not that confident.

New England Patriots 27 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: New England -4

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Packers, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (9-2) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)

The Patriots have been the better of these two teams this season, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Packers rank 7th. They’ve moved the chains at a 77.75% rate, as opposed to 72.42% for their opponents, a differential of 5.33%, while the Packers have moved them at an 80.17% rate, as opposed to 75.89% for their opponents, a differential of 4.28%. The Patriots have especially been good over the past 7 weeks, moving the chains at an 82.40% rate, as opposed to 72.65% for their opponents, a differential of 9.75%. Their offense has gotten significantly better with the offensive line settling in and Rob Gronkowski returning to form, while their defense hasn’t really missed much of a beat without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo.

Despite that, the Patriots are underdogs here by a field goal. The Patriots generally thrive in situations like that. Tom Brady is 46-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points. However, the usual conditions that accompany the Patriots being in this situation are not in play. They aren’t coming off a loss. They’re not playing a team with a better record than them. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been that good recently, going 5-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Even in situations where they are underdogs or small favorites on the road, they are 4-4 ATS on the road in that time period.

While the Patriots have had struggles on the road, the Packers have been dominant at home this season, so dominant in fact that this line of a field goal seems warranted, as good as the Patriots have been this season and especially since week 5. The Packers move the chains at an 80.37% rate at home, as opposed to 68.67% for their opponents, a differential of 11.69%. This home dominance is nothing new. Aaron Rodgers is 25-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 31-4 straight up, with an absurd +543 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.51 points per game.

Both of these teams are in good spots in terms of not having any significant distractions on the horizon. This is the toughest game of the season for either of these teams and a potential Super Bowl matchup. The Packers host Atlanta next week, while New England goes to San Diego. Teams are 98-80 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites, as the Packers will be, while teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, including 55-33 ATS road favorites of 4 or more. The Patriots will be significant road favorites next week. This is really tough to pick, but I’m going with the Packers to fade the public underdog Patriots.

Green Bay Packers 27 New England Patriots 23

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, Patriots, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2)

The Patriots have scored 243 points in the last 6 weeks since that embarrassing loss in Kansas City, more than 21 teams have scored all season. Over those past 6 weeks, they are moving the chains at an 82.74% rate, as opposed to 73.76% for their opponents. For comparison sake, in the first 4 weeks of the season, they moved the chains at a 66.96% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents. Their offense has gotten significantly better with the offensive line settling in and Rob Gronkowski returning to form, while their defense hasn’t really missed much of a beat without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo. The Lions, meanwhile, haven’t been as good as their record, as their 7-3 record has been powered by a 3-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.90% rate, as opposed to 69.66% for their opponents, a differential of 0.24%.

As a result, the public is all over the Patriots here and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run. I think it does here and I’m going against the Patriots this week, despite all that because the Patriots are in a bad spot. I think this is the week they slip up a little, as they typically do as big home favorites against non-conference opponents. They have never really gotten up for these types of games in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, going 4-11 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more against non-conference opponents since 2001.

On top of that, the Lions have an easy game at home against the Bears on deck, while the Patriots have arguably their toughest game of the season in Green Bay next week. Teams are 122-93 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while non-divisional home favorites are 76-106 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs over that same time period. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, the Lions are currently projected to be favored by 7 points next week and touchdown underdogs are 62-38 ATS since 1989 before being touchdown favorites.

The Lions are also in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 110-73 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-51 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 186-189 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.28 points per game, as opposed to 260-376 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.29 points per game. I hate going against the Patriots as well as they are playing and I think the Lions are a little overrated, but the Lions should be the right side.

New England Patriots 23 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit +7

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

The Patriots are usually an auto-bet as a small favorite or an underdog, as Tom Brady is 45-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points. However, the usual conditions that accompany the Patriots being in this situation are not in play. They aren’t coming off a loss. They’re not playing a team with a better record than them. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been that good recently, going 4-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Even in situations where they are underdogs or small favorites on the road, they are 3-4 ATS on the road in that time period.

On the flip side, the Colts have been great at home recently, going 14-6 ATS at home since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano came in before the 2012 season. The Patriots are in a good spot as they will be home favorites next week, but the Colts are also in a good spot with a much easier game against the Jaguars on deck. Teams are 109-74 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites, while teams are teams are 98-79 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites.

The Colts are the better team in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.84% rate, as opposed to 71.48% for their opponents, a differential of 6.36% that ranks 3rd in the NFL, while the Patriots rank 13th, moving the chains at a 75.25% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents, a differential of 1.92%. However, the Patriots have been significantly better moving the chains over the past 5 games since Rob Gronkowski has returned to form, moving the chains at an 80.43% rate, as opposed to 66.96% in their first 4 games. Their defense has been as good without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo (72.00% vs 74.29%), but they’ve still been a much better football team of late and are at least comparable to the Colts, if not better. We’re not really getting any line value with the Colts as 3 point favorites. I’m taking the Patriots on principle as underdogs, but I’m not that confident as there’s a lot going on here.

Indianapolis Colts 24 New England Patriots 23

Pick against spread: New England +3

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Broncos, Patriots, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2)

On the season, the Patriots are just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their 6-2 record, as they’ve been overly reliant on a +11 turnover margin. They are moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of 1.53%. The Broncos, meanwhile, are #1 in that statistic, moving the chains at a 79.49% rate, as opposed to 72.12% for their opponents, a differential of 7.36%. That suggests this line should be around 2.5 in favor of Denver here in New England, which gives us a little bit of line value with the Patriots as 3.5 point underdogs.

That’s before you even take into account that the Patriots have been playing much better football over the past four games, since that loss to Kansas City. They’ve moved the chains at an 80.99% rate over the past 4 weeks, as opposed to 66.96% in the first 4 weeks of the season. Their defense hasn’t been quite as good (74.26% vs 72.00%) and they’ll have trouble stopping Peyton Manning without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo, but they can definitely still outscore them. I believe the Patriots will be closer to the last 4 weeks than the first 4 weeks over the final 8 weeks of the season, as Rob Gronkowski is back to full health. Over the past 4 weeks, he’s caught 27 passes for 411 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past 4 games combined on 134 routes run (3.07 yards per route run).

Their offense has always been better when they have a healthy Gronkowski on the field. Coming into this season, from 2011-2013, Tom Brady completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 8.07 YPA, 81 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions when Gronkowski played (36 games, including playoffs) and the Patriots scored 32.8 points per game. When Gronkowski isn’t on the field, Brady completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.88 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions and the Patriots scored 28.0 points per game (19 games, including playoffs). Over the first 4 games of the season, Tom Brady completed 59.1% of his passes for an average of 5.77 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Over the last 4 games, he’s completed 69.6% of his passes for an average of 8.81 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.

Last week was the best offensive game they’ve had yet as they moved the chains at a 90.24% rate in a 51-23 win. Despite that, they are underdogs of 3.5 here, just the 4th time in the last 25 years that a team has scored 50 points or more and then been home underdogs of 3.5 or more the following week. Those teams are only 2-1 ATS, but it’s such a small sample size and, considering how rare it happens, I don’t think the Patriots deserve to be underdogs of this much, which my above numbers also suggest.

It’s also a rarity that the Patriots are home underdogs, as this is just the 11th time they’ve been home underdogs since Tom Brady took over as the starter. In those previous 10 games, they are 9-1 ATS, winning straight up in 8 of those 10 games. That makes sense, as the Patriots are 105-22 straight up since 2001 at home, including 9-4 ATS (13-0 SU, winning by an average of 12.46 points per game) at home over the past 2 seasons. Going off of that, Tom Brady is 44-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points, winning at an absurdly high rate in situations where he basically just has to win straight up.

Going off of that, he’s 31-10-1 ATS in his career against teams that have better records than his, including 19-6 ATS as an underdog. Possibly even crazier, he’s 30-12 straight up in that situation, a winning percentage of 71.4%. The rest of the league wins at a 38.5% rate. The Broncos are in a good spot, as they have the Raiders up next, meaning they have no distractions upcoming. Teams are 78-54 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 49-30 ATS as 4+ point favorites, and 20-5 ATS as 7+ point favorites. Still, as long as this line is more than a field goal, the Patriots are my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 27 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: New England +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Chicago Bears at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bears, Patriots, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2)

The Bears were embarrassed last week at home by the Dolphins, but that’s because the Dolphins were in a fantastic spot, with an incredibly easy game against the Jaguars up next, while the Bears were caught looking forward to this one. I like the Bears’ chances of bouncing back this week as they’ll be completely focused against a big opponent with a bye up next, while the Patriots are the ones in the bad spot this week. The Patriots have the Broncos up next and could easily be caught looking forward to that one, their biggest regular season game.

The Patriots are currently projected to be 3 point underdogs at home for Denver next week. Teams are 51-81 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012 and teams are 54-81 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 1989. While they got blown out by a team in a good spot last week, I think they can easily keep it close against a team in a bad spot this week. The public doesn’t think so, as they’re all over the Patriots, but that’s because they’re too focused on what happened last week. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the public always loses money in the long run and it makes sense here.

We’re also getting line value with the Bears, as the Patriots are an overrated team that has been too reliant on winning the turnover battle, going +9 in turnovers and recovering 66.67% of fumbles. In terms of pure rate of moving the chains, the Patriots rank 18th in differential, moving the chains at a 71.76% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -0.44. Sure, their offense has been a lot better recently as Rob Gronkowski has returned to form, but their defense has simultaneously taken huge hits losing Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones to return. Meanwhile, the Bears move the chains at a 76.92% rate, as opposed to 73.30% for their opponents, a differential of 3.62% that ranks 8th in the NFL, despite what happened last week in a tough situation. They’ll give the Patriots a game.

New England Patriots 24 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-5) at New England Patriots (4-2)

The Jets are as bad as I expected them to be this season and their record is as bad as they’ve been over the past two seasons. The Jets 8-8 record in 2013 was a farce as the Jets had a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a point differential of -97. They moved the chains at a mere 65.59% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of -4.05% that ranked 25th in the NFL. This season, they are right around there, moving the chains at a 66.08% rate, as opposed to 72.47% for their opponents, a differential of -6.39% that ranks 28th.

I’m not taking the Jets here, especially on the road where they have been even worse over the past 2 seasons. Since the start of last season, the Jets are 7-5 at home, getting outscored by an average of 1.58 points per game. Comparably, they are 2-8 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 14.00 points per game. Meanwhile, the Patriots have won every season home game over that time period by an average of 12.00 points per game, while going 8-3 ATS.

However, we’re not really getting any line value with the Patriots as 10 point favorites, as bad as the Jets are. The Patriots have been moving the chains at a 71.58% rate, as opposed to 70.81% for their opponents, a differential of 0.77% that ranks 14th in the NFL and suggests they should be around 10 point favorites here. Sure they’ve been a lot better over the past two weeks, but how they played before that can’t be overlooked. Also working against the Patriots case is the fact that they are 8-15 ATS since 2010 as favorites of 8 or more. I’m still laying the points, but I’m not confident at all.

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

This is one game I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Bills have been pretty successful at home in Buffalo over the past couple of seasons, going 8-2 ATS there in their last 10 games, including 6-1 ATS as home underdogs during that time frame. Last season, they beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took the Bengals to overtime, came within 2 points of knocking off the Patriots and their only non-cover in Buffalo was a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs in which they started a 3rd string quarterback and allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. They’ve also beat Miami at home in Buffalo twice over that time period.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of the 2013 season, including 1-5 ATS as road favorites. The Patriots are just 5-7 straight up on the road over that time period, as opposed to 11-0 straight up at home. On top of that, the Patriots have another game in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Sure it’s just the Jets, but it’s still a football game and a divisional game at that. Favorites generally don’t cover before Thursday Night Games, going 32-55 ATS in that spot since 2008.

On the other hand, the Patriots could easily be double digit favorites in that game and teams generally cover before being double digit favorites, which makes sense as that game is not nearly as big of a distraction as a harder game. Teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2010, including 55-38 ATS as favorites before being double digit favorites. On top of that, divisional road favorites are 42-24 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 2002. I’m going with the Bills and fading the public, but I’m not confident and if this line goes below a field goal, I might switch to the Patriots. That’s how close this is and Tom Brady is 43-18 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 in his career.

New England Patriots 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, Patriots, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2)

The Patriots are in three spots this week that have easily been auto-bets for them in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. They are 1.5 point underdogs here at home. They are coming off of a loss. And they are facing an opponent with a better record than them. Tom Brady is 31-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. Brady is also 42-18 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in his career. This is just the 6th time the Patriots have been home underdogs since 2002. So far, they are 3-1 ATS and 3-1 straight up. Finally, he’s 30-10-1 ATS in his career against teams that have better records than his, including 18-6 ATS as an underdog. Possibly even crazier, he’s 29-12 straight up in that situation, a winning percentage of 70.7%. The rest of the league wins at a 38.6% rate.

The Patriots haven’t looked good at all this season. They rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.96% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents. That rate of moving the chains is 29th in the NFL, meaning only 3 teams are moving the chains at a worse rate than the New England Patriots. Those three teams include two that have benched their starting quarterback (Buffalo and Jacksonville) and one that has fired their head coach (Oakland). Not exactly good company. However, I don’t think they’re nearly as bad as they’ve looked. They still have a ton of talent on paper. They won’t be nearly this bad all season.

It helps them that they return home here. They’ve played just 1 home game out of 4 so far and that was week 3 after starting the season with two road games. They didn’t cover as 14 point favorites against the Raiders that week, but teams that start with two straight road games more often than not don’t cover week 3 at home. The Patriots have still won 10 straight home games and 12 of their last 13, going 9-4 ATS over that time period. Unlike the last time they are at home, they’re in a very good spot this week, and I’m not just referring to the trends I mentioned earlier. They have no distractions on the horizon with a trip to Buffalo on deck. They should be at least 3 point road favorites in that game and teams are 71-47 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 66-42 ATS as home underdogs before being road favorites since 2002.

While the Patriots have been having recent success at home, the Bengals have had issues on the road over the past couple of seasons. While they have covered in all 10 home games over the past two seasons, they are 3-5-1 ATS and 4-5 straight up on the road. That included losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. They won in Baltimore week 1, but they only moved the chains at a 62.96% rate, as opposed to 75.68% for the Ravens. Ordinarily, I’d be more confident in the Patriots in this spot, but, again, they’ve really struggled this season. That being said, I think this line has moved far enough that we’re actually getting some value with the Patriots right now, so I think they should be the right side.

New England Patriots 23 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: New England +1.5

Confidence: High

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