Patriots

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: 2013 AFC Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)

The Patriots won 12 games and locked up a first round bye again. They now have a streak of 13 consecutive winning seasons. No one else has an active streak longer than 4. Over the past 13 seasons, they have 12 seasons of 10+ wins, 11 division titles, 10 seasons of 11+ wins, 8 seasons of 12+ wins, and are trying to add to their 7 AFC Championship appearances, 5 Super Bowl appearances, and 3 Super Bowl victories. Over that time period, they are 158-50 in the regular season, equivalent to an average season of 12-4, and they are 17-7 in the post-season and looking for more.

Even though they had what’s now considered an average record by this franchise’s standards of 12-4, this was not an average season for them. That 12-4 record is on the strength of a 7-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their +108 point differential was their lowest in a season Tom Brady was healthy since 2005. This team wasn’t as good as their record in the regular season. Just 5 of their 12 wins have come by more than a touchdown, which is very relevant considering they are favored by a touchdown here in the post-season.

The fact that they weren’t as good as their record is shown bt the fact that they are 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 74.30% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 70.97% rate, a differential of 3.33%. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 73.17% rate, as opposed to 72.44% for their opponents, a differential of 0.77%. That suggests this line should be at around 5.5, which goes back to the Patriots’ inability to win games by more than a touchdown. The Patriots have also historically struggled as 7+ point favorites in the post-season, going 4-8 ATS in that situation during the Brady/Belichick era.

Finally, the Patriots are in a bad spot because they could be overconfident because they’re at home coming off of a bye. Teams are 14-22 ATS since 2003 as home favorites after a 1st round bye in the post-season, including 8-14 ATS off of a week 17 win. There’s a chance they may have one eye on the AFC Championship and Denver next week. Patriots/Broncos and Seahawks/49ers seem to be the consensus AFC/NFC Championship Games right now. We all know how seldom the consensus is right in the post-season. It might not be a bad idea to bet against all 4 of those teams. I’m thinking at least 3 of their opponents cover.

Despite all of this, there are two big reasons why I’m not confident in the Colts. One is just how unpredictable the Colts have been this season. They’ve been alternating multiple game stretches where they’ve looked like a 13-3 team and a 6-10 team, with nothing really in between. Last season, they were nowhere near as good as their 11-5 record, as that was powered by 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished 7-9 or worse. They started out looking like that team, barely beating Oakland and losing to Miami in back-to-back home games. However, then they went on a roll over a 6 game stretch that included wins over good teams (Denver, Seattle, San Francisco) and blowout wins (34 point win in Jacksonville) that their 2012 season just didn’t have.

However, then after the bye they came out and looked like their 2012 team or even worse, with 3 point wins over Tennessee and Houston and then an 8 point win over Tennessee, but also a 29 point loss against Arizona, a 14 point loss against Cincinnati, and a 30 point loss against St. Louis. They had a -59 point differential over a 6 game stretch in which they got blown out by every decent team they faced and barely beat mediocre football teams. It reeked of 2012. However, since then, they’ve blown out the Texans by 22, went into Kansas City and won convincingly by 16 against a good football team, and then blew out Jacksonville by 20, in a game that was never really close.

Last week, they beat Kansas City, which was impressive, but they were also down by 28 early. In a way, last week’s game was a microcosm of their season. They were terrible for a stretch and then phenomenal for another stretch. During the season, they also ranked 29th in terms of variance on Football Outsiders, which means they were the 4th most inconsistent team. No other team left in the post-season ranks lower than 19th. I almost actually hope they get eliminated so I don’t have to deal with picking their games anymore, regardless of what I end up picking.

The other reason why I’m not confident in the Colts is the fact that they scored 40+ points last week. Teams who score 40+ points in a post-season game are 3-13 ATS the following week. Teams tend to be overconfident after that type of performance. That might not apply to them as much as it normally would to a team because they did allow 44 points last week, so they might not have a ton to be overconfident about, but then again, how much do you trust this defense against New England, especially when they’re missing starting cornerback Greg Toler? I’m picking the Colts, but I’m not confident at all.

New England Patriots 30 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (11-4)

I’m torn on this. On one hand, New England hasn’t been doing a lot of winning pretty this season. Of their 11 wins, only 4 have come by more than a touchdown and one of those, a 27-17 win over Miami, was a lot closer than the final score would suggest. On top of that, just 5 of the Patriots’ wins have come by more than a field goal as they have a ridiculous 6 wins by a touchdown or less. Considering this line is 9 points, that matters. Even last week when the Patriots beat the Ravens 41-7, they only had 20 points before garbage time and two return touchdowns. The first down battle (21 to 19 New England) was much closer than the final score.

Because of this, the Patriots only rank 10th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 74.11 rate, as opposed to 71.03% for their opponents, a differential of 3.08%. The Bills, meanwhile, come in 18th, moving the chains at a 66.03% rate, as opposed to 66.88% for their opponents, a differential of -0.85%. That suggests this line should be closer to 7, rather than 9. The Patriots have also had issues covering large spreads like this recently, going 8-16 ATS as 7.5+ point favorites since 2010.

However, on the other hand, the Bills are in a terrible spot on the road coming off of a blowout win as divisional home underdogs. Teams are 28-55 ATS since 1989 on the road off of a 10+ point home win as divisional underdogs. It makes sense, as teams tend to have hangover effects off of that type of big win, which can hurt their focus. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bills and fading the public, but I’m not confident. I’ll just hope for a touchdown game.

New England Patriots 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +9

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

The two spots the Tom Brady led Patriots are most dangerous in are both in play this week. The Tom Brady led Patriots dominate off of a loss and they dominate when not favored by 3 or more. In his career, Tom Brady is 29-15 ATS off of a loss. There’s a reason why the Patriots have lost back-to-back regular season games just 4 times over the past 10 years. When not favored by 3 or more (which includes games in which they are favored by 2.5 or fewer or games in which they are underdogs), the Patriots are 41-17 ATS.

Combining those two, Tom Brady is 17-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer off of a loss in his career. This is a huge eff you situation for Tom Brady and the Patriots. They’ve had to hear for two weeks how they are done without Rob Gronkowski and things will only get worse now that they lost last week. In reality, the Patriots were a play away from a big road win against a quality opponent and had more yards and more first downs than the Dolphins (453 to 378 and 29 to 20). They beat the Saints earlier this season without Rob Gronkowski.

I’m not saying his absence doesn’t hurt their long-term Super Bowl chances significantly, but they are still capable of great performances in the right situation. This is one of those situations. The Patriots have already won straight up against New Orleans and Denver in this situation this season, again even though they were without Rob Gronkowski in the former. Baltimore is playing better football of late, but they don’t exactly fit into that group. If the Patriots can beat the Broncos and the Saints in this situation, they can beat the Ravens.

Yes, both of those games were in Gillette and the Patriots haven’t had a lot of success on road this season, as they are here. However, it helps that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.

It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. This isn’t a new thing. Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game.

This is also a very good situation for the Patriots as this is the last big game on their schedule, with only a home game against the Bills left on their schedule. The Ravens, meanwhile, still have to go to Cincinnati, a much tougher game that will have major playoff implications. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 81-98 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs.

Combining those, teams are 86-54 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. It makes sense. The Patriots don’t have any distractions that would keep them from pulling this upset, while the Ravens also have to focus on the Bengals next week. I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook an opponent like the Patriots, but they’re definitely in the worse spot.

This is also a huge revenge game for the Patriots, who lost to the Ravens twice last season. The Patriots rarely lose back-to-back games to an opponent, but when they do, they are 9-5 ATS in the 3rd game. Along with the Denver game, this is one game the Patriots have definitely had circled all season. They’ll put forth their best effort, especially off of a loss. Again, I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook them, but they have other things going on that could easily lead to them not being as focused as the Patriots here.

One other thing that works against the Ravens is how close their big upset win in Detroit was last week. Teams are 24-40 ATS as home favorites since 2002 after a road win by 3 or fewer points as underdogs of 3 or more. That was such an emotional win, both in the way they won, on a last second 61-yard field goal, and the situation, as big road underdogs on Monday Night Football needing a win to stay in the playoff race. That could easily bleed into this game.

The only thing that works against the Patriots here is how good the Ravens are at home. The Ravens are 41-8 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 19-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. However, 6 of those 8 losses came to Peyton Manning (twice), Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers (three times). I think Tom Brady and the Patriots would fit in there. That’s not enough to keep this from being my Pick of the Week.

On final note, I wouldn’t put any money on this game right away. Field goal protection with the Patriots is going to be so important. I mean it’s always important, but 19 of the Ravens’ last 33 games (including playoffs) and 9 of their 14 games this season have been decided by a field goal or less either way. If the Ravens do win, there’s a good chance it would be by a field goal. There’s a much better chance this line shifts from 2.5 to 3 than to the Patriots being favored or something, so it’s beneficial to wait a little bit, unless you start to see the line move down. The marginal benefit of this line moving up is so much more than the marginal benefit of this line moving down. Either way, it’s my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 20 Baltimore Ravens 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: New England +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6)

The Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski. How can they function? Well, while it’s very true that Gronk was the 2nd most important player on the team after Tom Brady and that this significantly hurts their Super Bowl chances, the Patriots have proven they can still move the ball well even without Gronkowski in the lineup at times. Remember, they beat the Saints without him earlier this season and last week Tom Brady led two late touchdown drives without Gronk and completed 32 of 52 for 418 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception in the win over Cleveland.

Yes, they needed a miracle to comeback in that game, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle by 2, which only happens about 17.7% of the time. I don’t expect them to make a habit of losing the turnover battle, as that type of thing is very inconsistent and the Patriots are historically one of the best at consistently winning the turnover battle over the past decade.

The Patriots easily won the first down battle last week 30 to 24 and punted just 5 times, as opposed 6 for Cleveland. Having Shane Vereen, who they didn’t have the first time Gronk was out, is going to be very important as he’s turned into their version of Darren Sproles. He caught 12 passes for 153 yards in the win over Cleveland and will be a matchup nightmare for the Dolphins and their terrible coverage linebackers (neither Dannell Ellerbe nor Philip Wheeler have panned out as free agent signings).

The Patriots can definitely still turn it on from time to time even without Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have them so prepared for key situations. I think this is a key situation for the Patriots. Tom Brady has had to hear about how their season is over without Rob Gronkowski all week so he could easily go into pissed off mode, which he does like no one else, except for maybe Peyton Manning (Oh, I’m bad in the cold? Okay. Thanks. Bye). After two less than stellar performances by this team, I expect a very strong effort and for them to not appear to miss Gronk, at least for this week.

The Patriots have been a covering machine with Tom Brady under center when they are not favored by 3 or more points. With Brady under center, they are 41-16 ATS in his career as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer, as they are here. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty this season, but they’ve been winning, just like they have throughout Tom Brady’s career. It might not be pretty here. Miami is a decent football team, but any time I can get Tom Brady in a situation where he essentially just needs to win, it’s pretty much an auto bet. The fact that we might be getting pissed off Tom Brady this week is just a cherry on top.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -1

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Browns, Patriots, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)

Last week, the Patriots played a team that had recently lost at home to the Jaguars and they got into a dogfight, eventually winning by a field goal. This week, the Patriots once again get a team that just lost to the Jaguars as they face the Browns. Will this also be a close game? Well, it could be. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty very often this season. Just two of their wins have come by more than 10 points and just three came by more than a touchdown. Considering this line is 10, that’s very relevant. One of their games which they won by more than a touchdown was a ten point home win over Miami that was much closer than the final score.

It’s true the Patriots’ offense is a lot better now than it was at the start of the season. Tom Brady is playing better and he has most of his weapons back, with Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen all healthy. However, now their defense has become a problem, as season ending injuries to Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork have depleted their run defense as a lingering hip injury has sapped Aqib Talib’s effectiveness on the backend.

They’re moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, as moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They aren’t good, but I have this line calculated at 8, so as long as they have the experienced Jason Campbell under center instead of Alex Tanney, I can definitely see them keeping this close and forcing the Patriots into another close game. The Patriots generally haven’t done well as huge home favorites over the past few years, going 5-10 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

However, on the other hand, the Patriots are in a great spot as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites, going to Miami next week. They have absolutely no distractions. Teams are 92-57 ATS in that spot since 2002. Last week, it was the Texans who were in a good spot, a big part of the reason why that game was close. I actually think the Patriots are the right side here because of that trend. I’m not confident at all in laying double digits with them though.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 8-3

You could argue the Patriots had no business coming back from down 24-0 to beat the Broncos in overtime, but they also had no business being down 24-0. At the end of the day, the two teams were very even in first downs (28 to 27 Broncos), yardage (440 to 412 Patriots), takeaways (4 to 3 Patriots), failed 4th down (1 to 0 Broncos), and punts forced (8 to 6 Patriots). The Patriots played the Broncos very even and won the game. I still think the Broncos would win more often than not on a neutral field, but the Patriots have done a very good job reasserting their offensive dominance now that they have all of their weapons back from injury. They’re definitely in the mix.

Week 12 Studs

QB Tom Brady

WR Julian Edelman

LT Nate Solder

LG Logan Mankins

LE Rob Ninkovich

MLB Brandon Spikes

CB Logan Ryan

CB Kyle Arrington

Week 12 Duds

DT Chris Jones

DT Joe Vellano

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New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (8-3) at Houston Texans (2-9)

The Raiders beat the Texans by 5 in Houston. The Jaguars beat the Texans by 7 in Houston. Surely the Patriots can beat them by 9 or more in Houston right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as almost all of the action is on New England, but, as is often the case, it’s not that simple. There’s a reason why the odds makers always win in the long run.

I compare this game to last week’s Atlanta/New Orleans game, in which the Falcons kept it within 4 as 9 point home underdogs to the Saints, with all of the public action going on New Orleans because, “how could they not cover right?” Atlanta, like Houston, was a once proud team that had seemed to have quit on the season, not being used to that kind of losing and, as a result, they had lost 4 straight by a combined 74 coming in. However, they were able to get up for one last shot at upsetting a huge rival and played pretty well. I think Houston could do the same thing. This could easily be their Super Bowl, much like New Orleans was Atlanta’s Super Bowl last week. Don’t think the Texans have forgotten how the Patriots derailed their season last year.

The Texans are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They’ve only had 3 losses by more than a touchdown so I wouldn’t be so sure the Patriots come in and roll them over, especially since the Patriots have just 3 wins by a touchdown or more and have yet to cover a line bigger than a touchdown this season. Also, teams are 6-18 ATS as 7.5+ point road favorites over the past 3 seasons. It’s very hard to cover this type of spread.

Football Outsiders, for some reason, doesn’t think the Texans are better than their record, as they come in at 30th in terms of DVOA, but I disagree with that. They are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential that is 15th in the NFL. I don’t think they are the 15th best team in the NFL, but I think they’re better than 30th. They’re still solid in both trenches and we’re definitely getting some line value with them.

They’re also in a very good spot here. Teams who are non-divisional home underdogs are 40-11 ATS before being divisional road favorites, which they will be in Jacksonville next week. Teams in that dynamic tend to be completely focused and I think the Texans will be here. Also, teams are 99-56 ATS as underdogs off of 7+ straight losses. The public tends to want to stay away from teams on a long losing streak, and understandably so. That gives us value with the team on the long losing streak. The Patriots, meanwhile, could come out a little bit flat after last week’s huge win. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think and I’m pretty confident in Houston +9.

New England Patriots 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against spread: Houston +9

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, Patriots, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3)

Brady/Manning 14. That has to be some kind of record for non-divisional quarterbacks (I actually don’t know this. If someone does, let me know). This is the greatest quarterback battle in NFL history. What guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck etc. have done in recent years is cute, but Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been that good consistently for over a decade despite everything changing around them. We have two elite, elite quarterbacks who face each other every year despite the fact that they are not divisional opponents, because they are able to stay in 1st place so long. On top of that, almost every game has had a memorable ending. Purely as a football fan, I can’t wait for this game.

Now onto the actual pick. The Patriots lost last week in Carolina, but result aside, they’ve played very well offensively over the past 2 weeks, with 61 first downs to 3 punts. Their offense really seems to have woken up with Tom Brady playing better, Aaron Dobson breaking out, and Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola finally healthy. They could have easily beaten Carolina if it wasn’t for a -2 turnover margin, which isn’t the norm for this team, and we can assume an explosive offense once again going forward for them.

In spite of that, the public seems to be down on the Patriots after last week’s loss, as the majority of the action is on Denver. In addition to the fact that I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, I also think this is incorrect. Carolina is a top-5 team. There’s no shame in a close loss in there on the road. In fact, result aside, I’m more impressed with the Patriots after the game than I was before.

The Panthers are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents and the Broncos have a very similar differential, moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If New England can almost win in Carolina, why are we getting a whole field goal with them at home? The Patriots are now moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which suggests this line should be around a point, before you even get into the fact that the Patriots are playing better football now than the start of the season.

That’s also before you get into the fact that the Patriots are in a great spot as home underdogs before being road favorites. Teams are 64-39 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Patriots have absolutely no distractions with a trip to Houston on deck, while the Broncos are in between two games against the Chiefs, which are much more important to the Broncos’ seeding than this one. Because the Patriots lost last week, the Broncos will still control their destiny to the #1 seed if they lose this game, but they won’t if they win this game and lose next week. The Broncos won’t sleepwalk through this game or anything. After all, it’s Brady/Manning. However, the Patriots will be less distracted.

The Patriots are also in a spot where they traditionally cover. Simply put, Tom Brady dominates in this specific situation. The fact that they lost last week actually bodes well for their chances of covering this week. Tom Brady is 28-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. He’s also fantastic as an underdog or a small favorite. In his career, Brady is 29-14 ATS as an underdog and 40-16 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of 2.5 or fewer. At home, he’s 7-2 ATS as an underdog in his career and he’s 12-2 ATS as a home underdog or home favorite of 2.5 or fewer. In fact, he hasn’t been an underdog at home since 2005. As an underdog off of a loss, he’s 12-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog off of a loss as an underdog. He dominates when doubted and off of a loss and that’s the exact situation he’s in this week.

And if the opponent is a high level opponent, even better. In his career, Tom Brady is 27-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his. Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.4% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 71.1% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 28-9-1 ATS, including 17-5 ATS as underdogs. Tom Brady always brings his best for the best opponents and he’ll do the same this week.

The Broncos also might be a little overrated here. We know they’re a dominant team at home, but on the road, they’ve won by 3 in Dallas, lost in Indianapolis, and won by just 8 in San Diego, with the Chargers scoring 4 times (2 touchdowns, 2 field goals) to Denver’s 4 scores (4 touchdowns), even though Denver was coming off of a bye. Their only impressive road win came in New York against the Giants and they were playing awful football at the time. I’m not saying the Broncos are a bad road team, but it’s very, very tough for any team to be dominant on the road and it’s very, very tough for any team to win on the road against a top level opponent (just ask the Patriots last week).

They’ve also shown cracks since that amazing start they got off to. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 5 games, Peyton Manning has completed 136 of 217 (62.7%) for 1688 yards (7.79 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His numbers from his past 5 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is. He’s a 37-year-old quarterback who isn’t 100% with two bad ankles and now he has to go on the road to the cold in New England.

He could also be without two of his weapons as Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are both dealing with injuries. Wes Welker will need to get cleared by doctors because he suffered a concussion last week, while Julius Thomas injured his knee and has yet to practice. I’m not saying they’re definitely going to be out, but it’s worth noting. Peyton Manning won’t suddenly struggle without them and he still has plenty of weapons, but Peyton Manning is having probably the best season of his career this year because of the addition of Welker and the emergence of Thomas. Take them out of the mix and he could struggle a little bit more than usual by this season’s standards. Add everything together and I love the Patriots’ chances of winning a shootout at home and, as long as I’m getting a field goal, this is my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New England +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Panthers, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)

It’s almost always a bad idea to bet against Tom Brady as an underdog. In his career, Brady is 29-13 ATS as an underdog and 40-15 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than 3. It makes sense. This is the same Tom Brady who still feels slighted by being taken in the 6th round 13 years ago. He’s at his best when people doubt him and all the talk this week is about how the Panthers have finally arrived (news flash: they’ve been arriving all season). However, we might not be getting enough points to confidently take the Patriots here.

The Panthers have been a dominant team this season, especially over the past 5 weeks, which include 4 wins by 14+ points and a 1 point win in San Francisco last week that was easily the biggest victory of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. They are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 68% for their opponents, a differential is that 2nd in the NFL. The Patriots, meanwhile, haven’t been the same this year as they usually are. Their offense is moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential this is 9th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 7.5.

Of course, the Patriots had easily their best game of the season before the bye, beating the Steelers 55-31. Not only did they score 55 points, but they didn’t rely on their defense very much to do so, as they had 610 total yards and 33 first downs. It’s very possible that Tom Brady and his receivers are finally on the same page. Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are healthy now and will only be healthier coming off of the bye and rookie Aaron Dobson seems to be coming around. That trio had at least 100 yards and a touchdown between them. The ball also looked to be coming out of Brady’s hand better.

There’s no guarantee they’ll continue to be an improved offensive team going forward, but it’s certainly not something I’d put past them, especially with Shane Vereen expected back to provide Tom Brady a much needed high percentage target on a check down and a needed change of pace in the running game. Remember, he had 159 all-purpose yards week 1 before getting hurt and he should be close to 100% in his first game back because he wasn’t dealing with any sort of leg injury. Defense was a problem against Pittsburgh, but the Patriots are expected to get top cornerback Aqib Talib back for this one and they’ve generally had a strong defense on the season.

I think it’s safe to say that the Patriots are better than they’ve played this season, but the extent to which they are is still unknown. If Brady and this offense come out like they did against Miami 3 weeks ago, they might have trouble getting out of single digits against this Carolina defense. I really wish we were getting at least a field goal with the Patriots, especially since the Panthers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon (at Miami next week). Teams are 69-47 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2008. The Patriots, meanwhile, have to take on Denver next week. At the end of the day, Tom Brady as a dog is basically an automatic bet-on at this point, but I’m not confident at all.

Carolina Panthers 20 New England Patriots 19

Pick against spread: New England +1.5

Confidence: None

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