Last week: 4 (+0)
Record: 7-2
On bye.
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Patriots
New England Patriots: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#4)
Last week: 6 (+2)
Record: 7-2
Last week, I criticized Tom Brady’s play with the caveat that I believed he could turn it around, but that I’d need to see it to believe it. Well I saw it last week. Brady’s passes had so much more life on them and his receiving corps stepped up big time. Aaron Dobson appears to have broken out as a legitimate outside receiver, while Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski both seem to be as good as you can expect them to be. Shane Vereen is expected back after the bye to give Brady a much needed high percentage checkdown target. The defense, despite the absence of Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, is still solid and will get Aqib Talib back after the bye. This is a legitimate contender again if they can keep it up. They’ve have several challenges after the bye, including trips to Carolina and Baltimore, as well as a huge home game against the Broncos which could be for the #1 seed in the AFC.
Week 9 Studs
QB Tom Brady
TE Rob Gronkowski
RE Chandler Jones
LE Rob Ninkovich
Week 9 Duds
LG Logan Mankins
TE Michael Hoomananwanui
CB Alfonzo Dennard
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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at New England Patriots (6-2)
The Steelers once again came up flat as non-divisional road favorites last week, losing in Oakland, a situation they are now 6-18 ATS since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007. However, I was actually impressed with them. Another loss on their record doesn’t help their playoff chances, but, result aside, they were easily the better team in that matchup. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history by a quarterback) and two missed field goals that easily could have been made, they might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2).
They’re moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. Record aside, they’re not playing a whole lot worse than the Patriots. While the Steelers rank 15th in rate of moving the chains, the Patriots rank 14th, moving the chains at a below average 72% rate and relying on a solid defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate. Football Outsiders agrees, as they have the Patriots 13th in DVOA, while the Steelers are 16th. The Patriots have been overly reliant on winning close games (4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less), winning the turnover battle (+7), recovering fumbles (63.6%), and playing an easy schedule (only 2 games against teams ranked in the top-16 of my Power Rankings).
It needs to be said. Tom Brady looks more like a former 6th round pick than a 3-time Super Bowl winner this year. Pro Football Focus grades him out as the 24th ranked passing quarterback out of 37 eligible. He is completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 74.9, which ranks 27th, right between Chad Henne and Carson Palmer. South Park portrayed him very accurately this week when they suggested he was playing like he took a bunch of laxatives. He could definitely get better by the end of the season and he’s proven in the past it isn’t wise to bet against him in the long-term, but in the short-term, I have no problem with doing it as long as the public doesn’t realize how bad he’s playing, inflating the line. While I don’t doubt it could happen, I’ll have to see him improve to believe it at this point.
I thought it would get better when Rob Gronkowski returned, but in his 2nd game back Brady completed 13 of 22 for 116 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception against a weak Miami defense and really didn’t look good. They won by 10 on the strength of their defense, which will get better with Aqib Talib expected to return this week, but they, by no means, deserve to be favored by 7 points here. Remember, they are still missing Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork. Their defense still isn’t at full stretch. We’re getting at least 3 points of line value with the Steelers, if not more.
They’ve been even better since the bye. Over the past three weeks they have 53 first downs to 14 punts and 3 turnovers (a 76% rate), as opposed to 50 first downs, 18 punts, and 5 turnovers for their opponents (a 68% rate). They’ll be underrated going forward, as they are here. Their once again dominant defense should be able to shut down the stumbling Patriots’ offense. The Steelers had a big problem with turnovers early in the season (-11), but, as turnover margins normally do, they’ve improved since the bye (+2) and they could improve even more going forward as they are still recovering fumbles at just a 23.5% rate, which won’t continue. They’ve also gotten guys back from injury and are overall just playing better since the bye.
They’re also in a great spot here, as a result of last week’s loss. Teams are 96-55 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use as a cutoff for your sample size. They’ll also be completely focused with a home game against the Bills next week. Since 2008, non-divisional road underdogs are 97-61 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites.
The Patriots will also be completely focused, going into their bye, which is the only reason why this isn’t a Pick of the Week for Pittsburgh. Teams are 39-14 as home favorites of 7 or more since 2002. However, I think the fact that the Patriots definitely don’t deserve to be favored by 7 cancels that out a little bit. Besides, there are places they are 6.5 point favorites so it’s not like they’re a consensus 7 point favorite, for whatever that matters. As long as I can get Pittsburgh at +7, this is a high confidence pick.
New England Patriots 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +7
Confidence: High
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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#6)
Last week: 4 (-2)
Record: 6-2
It needs to be said. Tom Brady looks more like a former 6th round pick than a 3-time Super Bowl winner this year. ProFootballFocus’ grades him out as the 24th ranked passing quarterback out of 37 eligible. I thought it would get better when Rob Gronkowski returned, but in his 2nd game back Brady completed 13 of 22 for 116 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception against a weak Miami defense and really didn’t look good. They won by 10 on the strength of their defense, which will get better with Aqib Talib expected to return this week and that’s the reason they’re still a top-10 team (along with the potential that Brady gets better), but you could argue they deserve to be 3 spots lower. If they don’t have a good showing against the Steelers this week, they’ll move further down.
Week 8 Studs
LE Rob Ninkovich
CB Kyle Arrington
CB Logan Ryan
Week 8 Duds
RE Chandler Jones
DT Chris Jones
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Philadelphia Eagles trade DT Isaac Sopoaga to the New England Patriots
Trade for Patriots: Isaac Sopoaga isn’t very good. The 32-year-old was ProFootballFocus’ 82nd ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible on ProFootballFocus last season on the nose in San Francisco. This year, he’s been better, but he’s still grading out slightly below average on the nose in Philadelphia. That being said, he’s probably better than anything the Patriots currently have as Vince Wilfork is on injured reserve, Tommy Kelly is out indefinitely, and the Patriots are using two undrafted rookies Joe Vellano and Chris Jones heavily. He’s not going to get any pass rush, but he can help replacement some of Vince Wilfork’s presence against the run.
He was given an unreasonable 3-year, 11 million dollar deal this off-season by the Eagles, but the Eagles already paid more than 3 million of the 3.75 million guaranteed so the Patriots will essentially be paying him the veteran’s minimum weekly for the remainder of the season and can cut him penalty free this off-season, rather than paying him base salaries of 3.75 million and 3.5 million respectively in 2014 and 2015. The Patriots also gave up very little for him, as they sent a 5th rounder for him and a 6th rounder. I don’t love the deal or anything, but the price was right and he’ll fill a need.
Grade: B
Trade for Eagles: The Eagles aren’t really out of it at 3-5, only a game back of the Cowboys for the division in the crappy NFC East. Sopoaga isn’t a huge part of the team or anything, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense to start selling off starters at this point. 3rd round rookie Bennie Logan will probably take over for him on the nose, but he’s a little undersized at 6-2 309 and he’s inexperienced with only 175 snaps played in 8 games. The Eagles didn’t get a lot of compensation either. One positive: the deal will accelerate his cap hit so it’ll count against this year’s cap, when they have room, rather than next season’s, which will give them some more freedom in free agency.
Grade: C
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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New England Patriots (5-2)
Tom Brady has not played well this season. A lot of people are giving him a pass because of the state of his receiving corps and that’s obviously been an issue, but you can’t give him a total pass. His arm strength is noticeably diminished, something that’s been a trend over the past few seasons, and his timing and accuracy have been off as well. He’s completed fewer than 50% of his passes 3 times this season, something he had previously done just 3 times since week 2 of the 2006 season. He has failed to throw a touchdown in 2 of his last 3 games, after throwing one in his previous 52.
ProFootballFocus grades him out as the 21st best passing quarterback this season, in between Michael Vick and Carson Palmer. Brady got Rob Gronkowski back last week, but still completed less than 50% of his passes in an eventual loss to the Jets. You can argue whether or not that pushing penalty should have been called, considering the stakes and how frequently it goes uncalled, and you can argue whether or not the Patriots would have won that game if it wasn’t called, but you can’t deny that Tom Brady really struggled.
Fortunately, Brady should have a much better game this week for 3 reasons. One is that his receiving corps will be the best it’s been all season. Again, his receiving corps hasn’t been the whole issue, but an improved receiving corps certainly won’t hurt him. Gronkowski will probably play a full set of snaps for the first time all season and his chemistry and timing with Brady should be improved in his 2nd game back. Danny Amendola also returns from a concussion. He might not play a full set of snaps and his timing and chemistry with Brady could be off, but, at the same time, he’s practiced all week and only missed a week, so he could be a real asset.
The 2nd reason is that he’s always better off of a loss. In his career, he is 27-15 ATS off a loss, including 17-8 ATS off a loss as favorites. Since 2003, he’s lost back-to-back games just 5 times, going 30-5 SU off a loss. Remember when he was terrible in Cincinnati and then bounced back to beat New Orleans the next week? He’s still capable of that kind of thing, even if he’s not playing like the quarterback we’re used to him being.
The 3rd reason is that, while the Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Dolphins have a below average stop unit. The Jets are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68% rate, while the Dolphins are allowing opponents to do so at a 76% rate. The Patriots are moving the chains at an uncharacteristically bad 72% rate, slightly below league average, but it definitely helps to go from facing a dominant stop unit on the road to a mediocre stop unit back in Foxboro.
The Dolphins also have issues offensively, as they are moving the chains at a mere 70% rate, thanks largely to the fact that they’ve allowed 26 sacks on the season. In order to remedy the issue, the Dolphins traded for Bryant McKinnie, who will immediately be put in at left tackle, moving Jonathan Martin to right tackle, to take the place of the suddenly aging Tyson Clabo, who has looked completely out of place in the Dolphins’ zone blocking scheme this season.
However, I am very skeptical about how good he can be just 6 days after being traded for. He might need another week to get settled in. I also question how good the 34-year-old can be. There’s a reason why he was a healthy scratch towards the end of his time in Baltimore. I also question the 360 pounder’s fit on a Miami offensive line that is trying to do more and more zone blocking. Plus, a lot of the offensive line’s problem has been that Tannehill is taking too many sacks, taking one on 29.9% of pressured snaps, by far the highest percentage in the NFL. The Dolphins’ offense should continue to struggle this week, especially against a New England defense that is really carrying the team with the offense struggling. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 70% rate and this week they get back Aqib Talib, who was sorely missed against the Jets.
The Dolphins -6% differential in rate of moving the chains is actually 29th in the NFL and I really believe they are not as good as their record. Given that, I don’t think this line is high enough at 6.5, as unspectacular as the Patriots have been this season. I like the Patriots chances of bouncing back at home and not just winning but covering the spread with a balanced attack. It’s not a high confidence pick though.
New England Patriots 24 Miami Dolphins 13
Pick against spread: New England -6.5
Confidence: Low
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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#4)
Last week: 4 (+0)
Record: 5-2
The call that might have cost the Patriots a win was definitely questionable considering the number of times it wasn’t called this season and the stakes in those circumstances. However, it was the right call by the new rule. Bill Belichick took the blame for not understanding the rule, but you can’t blame him considering the Patriots did the same thing the week before and the refs didn’t care. Even the NFL’s official website didn’t have the rule right and had to edit the text of an article referring to the rule after Belichick’s press conference.
Week 7 Studs
LG Logan Mankins
TE Rob Gronkowski
DT Joe Vellano
MLB Brandon Spikes
FS Devin McCourty
Week 7 Duds
QB Tom Brady
RG Dan Connolly
C Ryan Wendell
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New England Patriots at New York Jets: Week 7 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3)
Injuries are a huge part of this game write up as the Patriots have one of the most thorough and dynamic injury situations in the NFL. We already know Vince Wilfork is out for the season with a torn Achilles. The Patriots have done a good job continuing to play strong defense even without him, though their run defense is noticeably worse. The Patriots are allowing opponent to move the chains on 68% of opportunities this season. They haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule, but they held Drew Brees to less than 50% completion last week for just the 2nd time since the beginning of the 2007 season.
Unfortunately, that win did come at a price, as Jerod Mayo tore his pectoral late and will miss the remainder of the season. Mayo was ProFootballFocus’ #2 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker after Von Miller last season, but he ranks dead last at his position through 6 games this season. He’s been awful against the run and even though he probably would have improved his run play going forward, I think he can be replaced in the run game by 2nd round rookie Jamie Collins. However, his ability in coverage will definitely be missed. Even this season, he was grading out above average in coverage. Neither Dont’a Hightower nor Brandon Spikes, as good as they are against the run, is good in coverage, but they will be relied on more in that fashion going forward as Collins is expected to be a pure two-down linebacker.
Fortunately, they are getting stellar play from Devin McCourty at safety this season so their lack of a strong coverage linebacker can be masked a bit. McCourty is ProFootballFocus’ #1 ranked safety. The Patriots are also expected to be without Aqib Talib in this one, though there is a chance he could suit up after returning to a limited practice on Friday. That’s obviously a huge loss as he’s been ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked cornerback this season, but if there were a game for him to miss, it’s this one. The Jets are without Santonio Holmes again and they are generally devoid of play makers downfield so the absence of Talib will be minimized in this one. The Jets are moving the chains at a 66% rate on the season thanks to the inconsistencies of rookie quarterback Geno Smith and his receiving corps so they should still have a strong defensive game.
Offensively, Danny Amendola is not expected to play with a concussion, which will leave them with the inconsistent trio of Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson, and Julian Edelman at wide receiver. However, the Patriots are expected to get Rob Gronkowski back this week. That could definitely be huge. Gronkowski might not be 100% in his first game back, but his presence on the field alone is going to help them tremendously and he should also be very productive in the passing game, especially around the goal line. Even if he doesn’t play a full set of snaps, he’ll definitely be used on all red zone and goal line snaps.
The Patriots are 30th in red zone scoring percentage this season, scoring a touchdown on just 40.9% red zone opportunities, only ahead of Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. This is opposed to last year, when they scored a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone opportunities, 3rd in the NFL. The absence of the 6-6 Gronkowski, who has scored 36 times in his last 35 full games, undoubtedly has a ton to do with that.
Over the past 2 seasons, Rob Gronkowski has played in 10 full games. In those 10 games, Tom Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He’s missed 14 games, including playoffs. In those 14 games, Brady has completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Gronk returning won’t solve all of his problems, but it’ll have a significant impact, particularly against a tough Jets defense, that is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68% rate. They’ll have to make the most of their goal line opportunities to win this one.
Before the announcement of Gronk’s return, I was leaning towards the Jets to at least keep this one within a field goal, in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs (64-43 ATS since 2002), especially since the Patriots could be overconfident after last week’s win. However, I don’t really want to go against the Patriots in a game in which they could be much improved offensively. On top of that, Tom Brady is 17-6 ATS in his career after a game in which he won despite throwing 16 or more incompletions, including 1-1 ATS this season. I’m not confident in them at all, but they’re the side I’m going with.
New England Patriots 20 New York Jets 16
Pick against spread: New England -3.5
Confidence: None
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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#4)
Last week: 4 (+0)
Record: 5-1
Yes, I’m aware the Patriots beat the Saints. Yes, I’m aware the Saints are higher than the Patriots here. And this is coming from a Patriots fan. The Patriots won that game by as small of a margin as possible and the game undoubtedly would have had a different outcome in New Orleans and probably if it were on a neutral field. I’m growing increasingly concerned about Rob Gronkowski’s return date and what kind of shape he’ll return in and the injuries continue to pile up, with Jerod Mayo going down for the season and Aqib Talib and Danny Amendola suffering injuries as well. Talib is expected to be fine, but it’s hard to imagine Amendola playing this week after taking that kind of blow to the head.
Week 6 Studs
QB Tom Brady
LT Nate Solder
RT Sebastian Vollmer
Week 6 Duds
WR Aaron Dobson
TE Michael Hoomanawanui
RG Marcus Cannon
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New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1)
The Patriots had their worst offensive performance since 2006 last week. It was the first time since 2006 that they scored fewer than 7 points in a game. On top of that, Brady hadn’t had a completion percentage that low since 2007. Fortunately, help should be on its way. Stevan Ridley will be back to give them another option on the ground. Danny Amendola, who played on just 62% of snaps last week in his first game back from injury, is expected to be a starter and play close to a full snap count. The biggest boost, however, is that Rob Gronkowski is expected to return.
Gronkowski might not be 100% in his first game back, but his presence on the field alone is going to help them tremendously and he should also be very productive in the passing game, especially around the goal line. The Patriots are 31st in red zone scoring percentage this season, scoring a touchdown on just 35.3% red zone opportunities, only ahead of Jacksonville. This is opposed to last year, when they scored a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone opportunities, 3rd in the NFL. The absence of the 6-6 Gronkowski, who has scored 36 times in his last 35 full games, undoubtedly has a ton to do with that.
Over the past 2 seasons, Rob Gronkowski has played in 10 full games. In those 10 games, Tom Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He’s missed 13 games, including playoffs. In those 13 games, Brady has completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Gronk returning won’t solve all of his problems, but it’ll have a significant impact.
I also expect Brady himself to play better. He didn’t play well against the Bengals. It wasn’t just on his receiving corps. However, this is the type of situation he usually dominates in, when he’s doubted and when he’s facing a tough opponent. In his career, Tom Brady is 26-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his. Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.4% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 70.3% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 27-9-1 ATS, including 10-4 ATS even as favorites. Even though the Patriots are being favored here, most people don’t expect them to win. The public is pounding the Saints as underdogs. Usually, the public loses and the odds makers win. There’s a reason for that.
The Patriots aren’t big favorites though, as favorites of just a point and a half. They pretty much need to win straight up. Tom Brady usually dominates against the spread in situations where he just needs to win straight up, going 39-15 ATS in his career in that situation, including 12-3 ATS at home. Tom Brady also usually dominates off a loss. He is 26-15 ATS off a loss, including 16-8 ATS off a loss as favorites. Since 2003, he’s lost back-to-back games just 5 times, going 29-5 SU off a loss. I expect the Patriots to be at their sharpest in their biggest test this season here and win. Remember, their defense has been incredible, as opponents have moved the chains on 67% of chances this season. Even without Vince Wilfork, they played great defense against the Bengals.
This would be a higher confidence play if not for two things. One is the possibility that Brady is more at fault for their slow start than we think. The Patriots are moving the chains on 70% of chances this season. For a team that was moving the chains at about an 85% rate in 2012, that’s unheard of. Tom Brady needs to take some of the blame. He hasn’t played well this season.
Discomfort with new receivers is a factor, but he has a negative passing grade on ProFootballFocus, who usually does a good job of determining who is at fault. It’s possible he’s turning into late career Dan Marino. He definitely has diminished arm strength, but that alone wouldn’t hold him back. Peyton Manning has diminished arm strength, but that doesn’t seem to affect him. It’s something to watch going forward and something that holds me back from being too confident in the Patriots.
The other is just how good the Saints have been playing this season. They are moving the chains at an 81% rate offensively. That’s no surprise, considering how well the Saints’ offense has played since Drew Brees came to town. However, they have been very good defensively as well, as opponents have moved the chains on 68% of opportunities, which is absurd considering they set the NFL record for yards allowed last season and ranked 31st in the NFL in points allowed.
Rob Ryan’s new defensive scheme has made a huge difference and allowed young players like Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette to break out. That 13% differential is best in the NFL, even ahead of Denver, whose defense is suspect. I really wish we were getting points with the Patriots. However, they should still be the right side and I’m pretty confident in that. One final note, if Gronk is surprisingly ruled out, I’ll drop this to a low confidence pick. Don’t actually put any money on the Patriots until Gronk’s status is confirmed.
Final update: Gronk is out, but I’ve decided to leave this as a medium confidence pick. The Patriots’ history with Tom Brady in this type of game is too powerful to ignore. I’m running the risk that these aren’t the same old Patriots anymore, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.
New England Patriots 27 New Orleans Saints 20
Pick against spread: New England -1
Confidence: Medium
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Football Fan Spot 