Patriots

New England Patriots: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 4-1

The Patriots are moving the chains on 70% of chances this season. For a team that was moving the balls at about an 85% rate in 2012, that’s unheard of. Things will get better as Danny Amendola gets healthier and Rob Gronkowski returns and eventually Shane Vereen returns. However, there’s no guarantee they will get significantly better. Tom Brady needs to take some of the blame. He hasn’t played well this season. Discomfort with new receivers is a factor, but he has a negative passing grade on ProFootballFocus, who usually does a good job of determining who is at fault. It’s possible he’s turning into late career Dan Marino. He definitely has diminished arm strength, but that alone wouldn’t hold him back. Peyton Manning has diminished arm strength, but that doesn’t seem to affect him. It’s something to watch goes forward. The good news is the defense has been incredibly, as opponents have moved the chains on 67% of chances this season. Even without Vince Wilfork, they played great defense against the Bengals. They haven’t played a tough schedule, but they get their first huge test this week when New Orleans comes to town.

Week 5 Studs

MLB Brandon Spikes

Week 5 Duds

QB Tom Brady

LG Logan Mankins

RG Dan Connolly

DT Joe Vellano

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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (4-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)

In 2011 and 2012, the Bengals were 18-4 against non-playoff teams and 1-11 against playoff teams. However, I think this is the most talented Bengals team of the three so when they beat the Packers, despite losing the turnover battle, I felt they had turned a corner and gotten their signature win. Of course, last week they turned around and got blown out by the Browns 17-6. It’s possible that the Bengals were just flat off of a huge loss and/or caught looking forward to another benchmark game against the Patriots the following week, but I’m not going to pretend to understand this team after going 0-3-1 ATS picking their games thus far this season (36-20-1 ATS on every other team’s games).

The Patriots definitely look like a playoff team and the type of team the Bengals have ordinarily had trouble beating. If they play like they did against Green Bay, they can definitely win here though. The Patriots are lucky to be 4-0. They’ve had a very easy schedule and 3 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. However, they’ve gotten better every week, culminating in a win in Atlanta last week in which they had a 99% chance of winning with 6 minutes left, before a failed onside kick recover gave them a scare late and got it within a touchdown. Kenbrell Thompkins has stepped up as a go to receiver for Tom Brady, alongside Julian Edelman. Brady’s week 4 performance, 20 of 31 for 316 yards and 2 scores, was by far his best of the season.

The Patriots have also been unlucky in terms of injuries and they will almost definitely only get healthier from here. Danny Amendola is expected to return this week to give Brady another weapon. The Bengals’ defense is better than the Falcons’ defense, but they’ll be without top cornerback Leon Hall again with injury so the Patriots could definitely put points up on the board. The Patriots do still have injuries though. Shane Vereen is still on injured reserve with designation to return. Rob Gronkowski is not expected back until next week so the Patriots still won’t get much from the tight end position, but they can spread things out with 3 wide receivers in Edelman, Thompkins, and Amendola. Stevan Ridley is also out, but Ridley hasn’t done anything this year that LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden can’t do.

The big blow for the Patriots was the loss of Vince Wilfork defensively. Wilfork tore his Achilles against Atlanta and is out for the season. The defense has been as good as it’s been in years for the Patriots thus far this year. They are allowing opponents to move the chains on 66% of opportunities, 3rd best in the NFL behind the Jets and Saints. They haven’t played a tough schedule of offenses, but they were 9th in opponent’s scoring last year with a young defense and presumably their defensive play could have translated to tougher opponents to an extent. Losing Wilfork hurts.

Not only is he the veteran leader of the defense, but they don’t have anyone else who can even come close to what he does. Wilfork doesn’t rush the passer, but he ties up blockers and is impossible to move. Defensive tackle is the Patriots’ thinnest position so now 2 of the Patriots’ top-3 defensive tackles are undrafted free agents, while the other is Tommy Kelly, an aged veteran who struggled in Oakland last year, but has thus far played well in New England. Still, the Patriots have plenty of solid defensive players, particularly in pass defense.

They should be able to take away AJ Green as much as you can, with Aqib Talib and bracket coverage and that will make life very tough for Andy Dalton, who looked terrible last week with Joe Haden blanketing his go to receiver. Dalton completed 23 of 42 for 206 yards and a pick. He could struggle once again this week and my gut says to go against Andy Dalton against a good team and that the Patriots are still a little underrated. I’m not confident at all though.

New England Patriots 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: New England PK

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 4

Record: 4-0

Are the Patriots lucky to be 4-0? Absolutely. They’ve had a very easy schedule and 3 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. That being said, being 4-0 is certainly better than being 2-2 and things will only get better for the Patriots going forward as they start to get weapons back, starting likely with Danny Amendola this week. If the Patriots are at close to full strength later in the season for a home game against the Broncos, I don’t know why they couldn’t go toe to toe with Manning and win that game.

Week 4 Studs

LT Nate Solder

C Ryan Wendell

CB Aqib Talib

Week 4 Duds

None

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New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Falcons, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (3-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

The Patriots certainly have injuries, but the Falcons do as well. They are without starting running back Steven Jackson, talented linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, and have lost starting defensive end Kroy Biermann for the season. Meanwhile, Roddy White is limited with a high ankle sprain and has not looked anywhere near his normal self this season, catching 7 passes for 56 yards in 3 games. Left tackle Sam Baker also missed last week with injury and is listed questionable for this game. Lamar Holmes struggled mightily in his absence last week. The Falcons lost in Miami last week as 2.5 point underdogs and now they are 2 point favorites at home for the Patriots, which essentially suggests that the Dolphins and Patriots are pretty equal, which I think doesn’t make any sense.

The Patriots have had a very easy schedule thus far this year, but I’ve been impressed with their defense. They have allowed 48 first downs to 21 punts forced this season, which is one of the best in the NFL. They haven’t been challenged yet, but I like their chances of carrying that over against real competition. They were 9th in the NFL allowing 20.7 points per game last season with a very young defense so it’s conceivable they could be a borderline top-5 defense this season.

The offense clearly has not been impressive, but if you ignore that week 2 game against a tough Jets defense on a short week, they have 47 first downs to 9 punts. They have a full week to prepare for the Falcons this week and their young receivers will only continue to get better. On top of that, both Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski could return. Both are questionable and there have been varying reports, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if one of them played, though I would be a little surprised if both played. Gronkowski seems more likely to play than not, while Amendola seems less likely to play than not.

Having one of both of them in the lineup, even if they aren’t at 100%, will help open things up on their offense, especially Gronkowski, who is not only more likely to return, but more valuable to the Patriots. Last season, Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. In his other 8 games, he completed just 58.7% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’ll be especially valuable in the red zone, where the Patriots have struggled mightily by not just their standards, but any standards this season. They were 3rd in the NFL last year, scoring a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone trips. This year, they are dead last, scoring a touchdown on 30.8% of red zone trips.

They should not be underdogs in Atlanta against the banged up Falcons. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirror. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run. It was also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground this season. They also faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season last year.

The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgraded from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. Now they are getting killed by injuries. They have no business being favored here. On top of that, Tom Brady is 28-13 ATS as an underdog in his career. They’re being overlooked right now and could easily play by far their best game of the season against their toughest opponent yet.

This would be a bigger play or even a Pick of the Week if I knew the status of Amendola and/or Gronkowski and if the Falcons weren’t coming off of a loss. They are 18-4 ATS off of a loss since 2008. They are also very good at home, as Matt Ryan is 34-7 at home in his career and 25-15 ATS and 22-12 ATS as home favorites. However, I feel like this line is so far off that those trends don’t matter as much. The Patriots should be the right side.

New England Patriots 23 Atlanta Falcons 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: New England +2

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (+2)

The Patriots’ 23-3 win reminded me of how they used to win games when they were winning Super Bowls. That’s definitely getting a little ahead of ourselves, but the defense looks for real. I know the Buccaneers’ offense is terrible, but holding anyone to 3 points is impressive. They’re only going to get better offensively as their young receivers mature and as they get guys back from injury. Rob Gronkowski appears set to return this week, while Danny Amendola will probably follow next week. That’s just in time for the Falcons and the Bengals, their first tests of the season.

Week 3 Studs

LT Nate Solder

RT Sebastian Vollmer

LG Logan Mankins

MLB Brandon Spikes

CB Aqib Talib

Week 3 Duds

QB Tom Brady

C Ryan Wendell

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Patriots, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at New England Patriots (2-0)

Tom Brady completed under 50% of his passes in a game last week for the first time since 2009 and it took a perfect storm for that to happen. It was a combination of the worst receiving corps he’s ever worked with, a Thursday Night game, and terrible weather. Two of those situations will be gone this week as the Patriots actually have extra time to prepare for this one and the weather is expected to be fine. Unfortunately, their receiving corps probably won’t be much better. Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen remain out and, while you never know with the Patriots, if I had to guess right now, I don’t think Rob Gronkowski is going to play.

I definitely underestimated Tom Brady’s ability to get this new receiving corps assimilated before the season started. Brady has had success with receivers that haven’t been that good in the past, but they’ve always been veterans. The Patriots’ system is incredibly complex because of all the timing routes and it’s very understandable that it would be overwhelming for rookie receivers, who tend to take a while to get adjusted to the NFL anyway. Even Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez didn’t put up huge numbers as rookies. They’ll have to hope that extra time to prepare and another week under their belts will lead to superior play from their rookies, which is certainly possible.

Fortunately, the Patriots have been given a very easy schedule to start their season, starting with the Bills and Jets and now with the 0-2 Buccaneers in New England, who actually lost to the Jets week 1. The Buccaneers are in shambles right now. Josh Freeman has now completed 131 of 262 (50.0%) for 1639 yards (6.3 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his last 7 games, dating back to last season. Couple that with all of the reports coming out about him and it’s very hard to trust him to move the ball, especially against a Patriots defense that, at least early on, looks as good as it’s been in years.

As a result of Freeman’s struggles, the Buccaneers are converting just 60.5% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, which is only ahead of Jacksonville. Their defense is playing well, allowing just 72.9% of 1st and 10s to be converted for subsequent firsts, but the disparity is still the 3rd worst in the NFL, ahead of only Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. The Patriots, as bad as they’ve been offensively, actually rank 6th in this disparity, largely because their allowing opponents to convert just 55.6% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, 2nd behind only the Jets in the NFL. Facing the Bills and the Jets helps, but the Buccaneers have also faced the Jets so it’s not like these two teams have played completely different schedules.

I think the Patriots have a very good chance to break out this week. The Patriots have had just 1 three game stretch without a 7+ point win since 2006. Meanwhile, after games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-15 ATS, including 18-6 ATS off a win. I’m not willing to put a lot of confidence on it, but I really feel like this is the week they finally sort of resemble the Patriots. This season really reminds me of 2006.With a new receiving corps, Brady started the season completing 50% of his passes, even less than this year, in near upset losses to the Bills and Jets, but the Patriots eventually got their act together and went 12-4, before eventually losing in the AFC Championship. That narrative could repeat itself.

New England Patriots 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 3

Tom Brady completed under 50% of his passes in a game last week for the first time since 2009 and it took a perfect storm for that to happen. It was a combination of the worst receiving corps he’s ever worked with, a Thursday Night game, and terrible weather. The good news is the Patriots don’t play any more Thursday Night Games and that terrible weather won’t be a regular thing. Meanwhile, his receiving corps can’t get worse as his young receivers will eventually get it together and Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen are all due back this season at some point, probably in that order. The Patriots have had just 1 three game stretch without a 7+ point win since 2006 and I expect them to bounce back with a big win on long rest against an 0-2 Tampa Bay team, especially if Gronk plays. As for the long term, this season really reminds me of 2006.With a new receiving corps, Brady started the season completing 50% of his passes, even less than this year, in near upset losses to the Bills and Jets, but the Patriots eventually got their act together and went 12-4, before eventually losing in the AFC Championship to Peyton Manning. That narrative could repeat itself.

Week 2 Studs

RT Sebastian Vollmer

LE Rob Ninkovich

FS Devin McCourty

Week 2 Duds

DT Vince Wilfork

LT Marcus Cannon

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge.

Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS , including 12-2 ATS as non-divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more. This is a non-divisional game here so it doesn’t meet the qualifications, but we can still apply the logic. I would much rather take Tom Brady/Bill Belichick at home on a short week than Geno Smith/Rex Ryan on the road on a short week, especially considering well the Patriots do against rookie quarterbacks (14-4).

I also think this line is an overreaction to last week. The Patriots are 11.5 point favorites here at home, which is essentially what they were last week in Buffalo. I don’t think the Jets are significantly better than the Bills so this is what I call an overreaction line. Of course, the Patriots didn’t cover last week in Buffalo, but that’s where the overreaction comes from.

The Patriots didn’t look good week 1, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle, the only team in the NFL to do so this week. Teams that lose the turnover battle only win 21% of the time, so that’s impressive, even against the Bills. I don’t expect turnovers to be a huge issue going forward. I care more about the Patriots’ 431 yards and 26 first downs than their turnovers. Besides, there’s no shame in failing to cover as double digit road favorites. Going back to 2011, double digit road favorites are just 1-9 ATS, while 7.5+ road favorites are 2-16 ATS. It’ll be a different story at home.

I also expect the Patriots to have a chip on their shoulder in this game after what happened last week. Good news: Tom Brady is very good after games where he doesn’t play well, regardless of outcome. After games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS, including 18-5 ATS off a win. If the Patriots weren’t missing Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola, this would be a stronger confidence pick, but we lost some line value because the line didn’t really move when those two were ruled out.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England -11.5

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

The Patriots didn’t look good week 1, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle, the only team in the NFL to do so this week. Teams that lose the turnover battle only win 21% of the time, so that’s impressive, even against the Bills. I don’t expect turnovers to be a huge issue going forward and their young receiving corps has nowhere to go but up at this point. I care more about the Patriots 431 yards and 26 first downs than their turnovers. There’s not enough for me to change my AFC Championship projection for them.

Week 1 Studs

RB Shane Vereen

LT Nate Solder

RT Sebastian Vollmer

LG Logan Mankins

WR Danny Amendola

DT Vince Wilfork

Week 1 Duds

LOLB Jerod Mayo

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

A few weeks ago, this line was at -7.5 in favor of New England. However, EJ Manuel got hurt and the line shot up as it looked like undrafted free agent backup Jeff Tuel (originally the 3rd stringer before Kevin Kolb’s season ending injury) would become the first undrafted free agent to start week 1 since 1967. That put the line into double digits. Manuel is going to play in this one, but the line is still in double figures as there are questions about how well the mobile Manuel can play after minor knee surgery, as well as injuries to shutdown cornerback Stephon Gilmore to elite safety Jairus Byrd that have sunk the Bills’ secondary from passable to laughable.

The injuries in the secondary certainly do make it a lot tougher for the Bills to stop Tom Brady. Leodis McKelvin, Ron Brooks, and Justin Rogers will be their top-3 cornerbacks, while Aaron Williams and Da’Norris Searcy will get the start at safety. However, this line is still huge and we’ve lost all line value. I originally liked the Patriots in this spot because of how well they do week 1 (never lost in the Belichick era), because of how well they do against rookie quarterbacks (13-4), and because the Patriots will have a chip on their shoulder going into this season largely overlooked as a Super Bowl contender with guys like San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver all getting much more attention from them.

That being said, I can’t take the Patriots as double digit road favorites here. There were only 3 instances of double digit road favorites last year. Two were the Broncos against the Chiefs and Raiders, while the other was the Patriots against the Jaguars. Basically, they involved the 3 teams that had the top-3 picks in the draft. I don’t think that’s quite what we’re dealing with here. On top of that, going back to 2011, double digit road favorites are just 1-8 ATS, while 7.5+ road favorites are 2-15 ATS. I can’t put anything on the Patriots for that reason, especially with most of the public action on them, but I do think they’re the right side and that we’ll see a blowout.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

New England Patriots 37 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: New England -10.5

Confidence: None

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