Patriots

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)

The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York (another loss) and +3 against the Titans in Tennessee to being -3 in Jacksonville and +7 at home for Green Bay. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, including 5-1 since Chuck Pagano left the team for treatment. They’ve won 4 straight and their only loss since Pagano’s announcement was in New York against the Jets, when they were understandably flat right after their first emotional ChuckStrong victory.

They are once again underrated this week as 9 point dogs in New England. For reference, the Bills were -12 in New England last week and covered. That says Colts are just 3 points better than the Bills at most because the Patriots didn’t even cover last week. Huh? Using the yards per play differential method, the Patriots should just be 3 point favorites and even using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, the Patriots should just be 8 point favorites, even though the Patriots rank 2nd in that statistic.

The Colts shouldn’t be getting this many points against anyone, even though the Patriots do have Aqib Talib making his debut this week. The Colts also return Robert Mathis from injury this week. Mathis, their top pass rusher, has been pretty much out since week 4 (he played very sparingly week 9). They’ve been playing really well ever since they returned several starters defensively (Cory Redding, Dwight Freeney, Pat Angerer). Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers are out, but their defense is still healthier than it’s been in recent weeks and Darius Butler’s strong performance at cornerback is helping cancel out the loss of Davis and Powers.

Besides, the Patriots tend to struggle when laying this many points at home. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 5-11 ATS at home as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is pretty incredible considering they’ve been a covering machine in general in the past 2 ½ years. In all other situations, they are a whopping 21-8 ATS. They’ve already failed to cover in all 3 of these instances this season, barely beating the Jets and Bills and losing to the Cardinals, 3 teams that are all significantly worse than the Colts. This game reminds me a lot of when the Giants came to New England as 9 point dogs week 9 last year and won.

The Colts are also in a trio of good spots. First, they’re well rested coming off a Thursday Night Game. On Sunday, teams are 115-95 ATS off a Thursday Night game. Second, they’re dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 20-11 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or more. Next week, they host the lowly Bills. Third, the Patriots play the Jets on Thanksgiving next Thursday. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites (which the Patriots will be).

The Colts should be able to keep this one close and even if they don’t, there’s some backdoor potential with the Colts because of how bad the Patriots’ pass defense is, even with Talib. If the Colts are down 10-14 driving for a backdoor cover late this week, I’d rather have them than the Patriots, especially as bad as the Patriots’ pass defense is in the 4th quarter. I also don’t want to bet against this ChuckStrong momentum.

Sharps lean: NE 9 IND 5

Final update: No change.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

New England Patriots 31 Indianapolis Colts 27

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +9 (-110) 4 units

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New England Patriots: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 6-3

Holy crap this secondary is terrible. They better hope that Aqib Talib making his debut this week and Patrick Chung returning from injury fixes their pass coverage issues. I just can’t see a team with this poor of pass coverage winning the Super Bowl. It’s worse than last year. Besides, no Super Bowl runner up has won the Super Bowl in 40 years. On the flip side, if Talib and Chung can shore up their only real flaw, all of a sudden, this team that already ranks 3rd in the NFL in points differential becomes awfully scary.

Studs

RB Danny Woodhead: Rushed 15 yards (0 after contact) and a touchdown on 1 attempt, caught 4 passes for 46 yards on 6 attempts

K Stephen Gostkowski: 8 kickoffs, 6 touchbacks, 72.9 yards per kickoff, 17.8 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (27, 43, 48)

Duds

WR Deion Branch: Caught 4 passes for 30 yards on 8 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Alfonzo Dennard: Allowed 7 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Jerod Mayo: Allowed 3 catches for 63 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Dont’a Hightower: Allowed 3 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

RE Chandler Jones: 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at New England Patriots (5-3)

Poor Bills. Last week they had to face the Texans and now they have to face the Patriots. Well, maybe it’s not so bad. While teams struggle as double digit dogs before being double digit dogs, 22-42 ATS since 2002, a situation the Bills lost in last week, it’s the exact opposite for double digit dogs after being double digit dogs, as long as they lost the week before. Teams in that spot are 36-22 ATS since 2002. Even better, the Bills are in their 2nd straight road game off a loss. Teams are 78-47 ATS since 2008 in that spot.

Meanwhile, as frequently as the Patriots have blown teams out in the last few years, they’ve struggled as favorites of more than a touchdown. They always seem to play down to the level of the competition as big favorites, going 5-10 ATS. That’s pretty remarkable considering how much of a covering machine they’ve been since 2010. In all other situations, they’re a ridiculous 21-8 ATS. We’ve already seen that twice this year as they lost at home to the Cardinals and needed overtime to beat the Jets. We could see a 3rd instance of that here, though double digit home favorites are 15-7 ATS off a bye since 2002.

We are getting a little bit of line value with the Patriots, but barely. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -7 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives us a real line of -17. If you average those out, you get a line of -12 and this line is -11. However, it’s just 1 point and given that both metrics are pretty far in each direction, it’s hard to say there’s noteworthy line value for either team.

Finally, we’re getting an opportunity to fade a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. It’s a significant play on the Bills.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: NE 8 BUF 2

Final update: No change.

New England Patriots 31 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against spread: Buffalo +11 (-110) 3 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade CB Aqib Talib to the New England Patriots

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Buccaneers, Offseason Moves 2012, Patriots

Trade for Patriots: I absolutely love this trade for the Patriots. They desperately need cornerback help. They have a few young cornerbacks, but none of them are playing well. Tom Brady is 35 so their Super Bowl window is closing. They need a short term solution so they don’t have to rely on developmental cornerbacks like Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, and the recently released Sterling Moore. This might be the missing piece in their Super Bowl puzzle. They were contenders before this trade, but now, they’re even deadlier as they’ve upgraded one of their only weaknesses. Any time you can potentially acquire the missing piece to a Super Bowl team, it’s a good trade, especially for a mid round pick.

The Buccaneers gave up on Talib because he’s in a contract year and because of his off the field issues, but he’s still a proven cornerback. He’s still got 2 more games left on his suspension for adderall, but the Patriots will have him around for the stretch run which is what matters. He will start opposite Devin McCourty, who will probably be moving back to cornerback when Patrick Chung returns and help a pass defense that ranks 29th against the pass right now. Between McCourty (a better cornerback than safety), Talib, Patrick Chung (when he returns), and talented rookie Alfonzo Dennard, this secondary is going to look a lot better in a couple of weeks than it does now and shore up their only real weakness.

In 2010, he allowed 35 of 59 (59.3%) for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 2 penalties. In 2011, he allowed 28 of 51 (54.9%) for 479 yards (9.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties. This year, he’s allowed 24 of 36 (66.7%), 399 yards (11.1 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties. Getting Talib and a 7th round pick for a 4th round pick is yet another one of Bill Belichick’s smart bye low deals. The difference between a 4th round pick and a 7th round pick is barely anything, especially for a team like the Patriots who frequently find contributors in the 6th and 7th round.

Grade: A

Trade for Buccaneers: Greg Schiano has made it a point to makeover the team and the locker room culture since being hired before this season. Getting rid of Talib is yet another part of that and so far, it’s worked. This was a talented team that won 10 games in 2010 and they started 4-2 last year before Raheem Morris lost control of the team. Schiano seems to have gotten it back and the Buccaneers are playing well, sitting at 3-4 with a +32 points differential. They probably won’t make the playoffs this season, which is why they could get rid of Talib, who probably would not be back after the season, so this move makes sense. It also gives them a chance to see if young cornerbacks Leonard Johnson and EJ Biggers can be long term starters. I like this move for both sides, but I think the Patriots got the better end.

Grade: A

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New England Patriots: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 5-3

The team with the best points differential in the league: The New England Patriots. Look out. They have a very easy schedule the rest of the way, host the Bills and Colts, going to the Jets and the Dolphins, hosing the Texans and the 49ers, going to Jacksonville, and hosting the Dolphins. As bad as they have been at nailing down leads in the 4th quarter (8-9 in their last 17 when leading by 10 or fewer going into the 4th quarter), they also have more double digit leads than anyone in the league heading into the 4th and they’ve never blown one of those. Meanwhile, their record in games where they trail by 10 or fewer going into the 4th is also around .500, meaning they’re about .500 in games that are close heading into the 4th quarter. That sounds about right.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 23 of 35 for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns, 1 throw aways, 3 drops, 108.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 35 drop backs (3 of 7, 1 throw away)

C Ryan Wendell: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 29 yards on 6 attempts

LG Donald Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 1 attempt

TE Rob Gronkowski: Caught 8 passes for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 1 drop

RB Stevan Ridley: Rushed for 127 yards (60 after contact) and a touchdown on 15 attempts

LOLB Jerod Mayo: Allowed 3 catches for 12 yards on 3 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

CB Alfonzo Dennard: Allowed 1 catch for 16 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles

RE Chandler Jones: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

WR Deion Branch: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 35 pass snaps

DT Vince Wilfork: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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New England Patriots at St. Louis Rams: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Patriots, Rams

New England Patriots (4-3) “at” St. Louis Rams (3-4)

What’s wrong with the Patriots? That’s what people have been asking for 2 weeks. Last week, the answer to that question was nothing. Losing in Seattle to a tough Seahawks team is not an embarrassing loss or a huge upset as some were calling it. Green Bay and Dallas both lost there as well. However, after the Patriots struggled at home to put away the Jets, that question has some more merit. The Patriots didn’t deserve to win that game. If you win the turnover battle, get a safety, and get a special teams touchdown at home, you shouldn’t need overtime to beat the Jets. They should feel like they just lost because they pretty much did.

Patriots fans should be hoping they feel like they lost because Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS off a loss and Bill Belichick is 35-20 ATS. The good news is that they’re also equally good off of overtime, as Belichick is 9-2 ATS off overtime and Brady is 7-1 ATS. More good news: Tom Brady is very good after games where he doesn’t play well, regardless of outcome. After games in which he has 15 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 23-13 ATS, including 13-5 ATS off a win. Off a win by 3 or fewer, Tom Brady is 14-9 ATS and Belichick is 16-10 ATS.

It’s hard to imagine the Patriots, given how consistently well they play, having another bad game this week off a loss and a near home loss. This is a huge game for them to shut up the media doubters, even after a win. They’ve played a tough schedule in their first 7 games. Their easy games were against the Bills and Titans, both of whom they blew out. The Jets were a only little bit harder last week, but other than that, they’ve played quality opponents. Seattle, Denver, and Baltimore could all easily be playoff teams and Baltimore was a legitimate Super Bowl contender before injuries struck. Arizona, meanwhile, looks like a much more explainable loss now than when it happened, especially since they lost Aaron Hernandez, a huge part of their offensive game plan, during that game and didn’t have time to adjust.

Now the schedule gets easier for the Patriots, starting with an admittedly underrated Rams team this week. After this, they get a bye (more on that later), they’re home for Buffalo and Indianapolis, go to the Jets and Miami, host Houston and San Francisco, then go to Jacksonville and host Miami. Only Houston and San Francisco are better than average teams and both of those games are in Foxboro. In 2010, they started 6-2 before ripping off a stretch of 8 straight wins before a playoff loss and last year they started 5-3 before ripping off a stretch of 10 straight wins before a playoff loss. We could see something similar happen this year.

Back to that bye, that’s another reason why the Patriots will be extra focused this week. Favorite of 7 or more going into a bye are 44-20 ATS since 2002. That makes sense. Good teams tend to be distraction free and take care of business going into a bye. The Patriots also have an advantage given that this game is in London. Having to travel that many time zones is an experience you simply can’t prepare for unless you’ve done so before and the Patriots have not only done so, playing in London in 2009, they blew out the Buccaneers 35-7. The Rams, meanwhile, have never played in London.

Playing in London is also comparable to playing on Thursday Night on short rest and favorites normally do well on Thursday Nights. That makes sense since favorites tend to be experienced, veteran, well coached teams and it makes sense that those types of teams would be better prepared on short rest. Favorites are 68-48 ATS on Thursday Nights. There’s not enough data to include if the same is true in international games, but the logic makes sense. The veteran, experienced, well coached team should have the edge and in this game, that’s the Patriots and that’s not even counting their past experience in London.

One injury note is that Aaron Hernandez did not make the trip for the Patriots and will not play. This doesn’t change my pick, however. In the 3 full games he missed, the Patriots averaged 37.3 points per game. If anything, they’ve been playing worse since he returned. I’m not saying Hernandez being healthy HURTS them, but Tom Brady has always been a next man up guy in the receiving corps and has never been affected by missing receivers, so long as the injury doesn’t happen during a game like the last time Hernandez got hurt.

They could also get Julian Edelman back this week, someone they didn’t gave the last time Hernandez was out, which would allow them to run more 3-wide receiver sets, or they may opt to run more often, which is what they did when Hernandez was out the last time. Brandon Bolden is also expected out, but Shane Vereen looked good in his absence last week.

Either way, I don’t expect the Hernandez injury to affect things much and I still like the Patriots, given the reasons I’ve mentioned and the fact that the favorite/dog disparity is eventually going to close. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year and neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games above .500 over the course of a whole season in at least a decade. I like the Patriots for a significant play as long as the line doesn’t go over a touchdown.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean: STL 7 NE 5

Final update: Sharps seem hesitant to bet this game at all because it’s international. I get that, but I still think I have a strong feel on it.

New England Patriots 34 St. Louis Rams 17

Pick against spread: New England -7 (-110) 3 units

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New England Patriots: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 5 (+1)

Record: 4-3

The Patriots certainly aren’t playing like the 4th best team in the league right now, but they still should be able to get one of the 4 first round byes. Baltimore looked way worse than the Patriots did last week and that was really their only competition from the #2 seed because Houston because they’re one of just 3 teams in the whole AFC with more than 3 wins.

Besides, look at the Patriots’ schedule the rest of the way: St. Louis in London, vs. Buffalo, vs. Indianapolis, @ NY Jets, @ Miami, vs. Houston, vs. San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, vs. Miami. In the last 2 years, they’ve started slow before going on a run and ripping off wins (10 straight last year before the Super Bowl and 8 straight in 2011 before the loss to the Jets in the playoffs). That could definitely happen this year for a team that has finished the tough part of their schedule and still feels like they haven’t played their best football.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 26 of 42 for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns, 5 drops, 2 throw aways, 99.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 43 drop backs (1 sack, 3 of 11, 1 touchdown, 2 throw aways, 2 drops)

LOLB Jerod Mayo: 12 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 36 yards on 5 attempts

MLB Brandon Spikes: 11 solo tackles, 8 stops, 1 penalty, allowed 3 catches for 24 yards on 4 attempts

LE Jermaine Cunningham: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

WR Brandon Lloyd: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 6 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 penalty

RE Chandler Jones: 2 quarterback hurries on 49 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

DT Vince Wilfork: Did not record a pressure on 38 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots

New York Jets (3-3) at New England Patriots (3-3)

You gotta love the public overreaction with the Patriots. Last week, they were one of the best teams in the league. Now you get guys like Tony Dungy saying they’re “not very good” and an “average team” just because they lost by 1 point to a good Seattle team in Seattle. The Seahawks are awesome at home, going 15-4 ATS as home dogs since 2007 and now they might have their most talented team in that time period. There’s not really any shame losing to them there.

That loss did drop the Patriots to 12-10 in games where they take a lead of 10 or fewer into the 4th quarter, dating back to their loss to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship game, which is obviously concerning since the average team wins 70% of those games. However, they are 7-6 in games where they trail by 10 or fewer going into the 4th. It’s very possible that their struggles when entering the 4th with a slim lead are caused by play calling and a lack of urgency, not that they’ve lost their clutch edge. Overall, going 19-16 in games where the score is within 10 heading into the 4th quarter isn’t so bad.

They probably won’t have to worry about that this week, as is often the case. In their last 79 games, they’ve had a lead of more than 10 heading into the 4th quarter a whopping 41 times, winning them all, and this feels like another one of those games. They’ve had to listen to how “average” they are all week and how they’ve “lost it” when in actuality, they just lost to a good team that’s very good at home by 1 point. They’ve lost 3 games by a combined 4 points this year. This is still a really good team.

They’re in a very good spot this week. Tom Brady is 16-6 ATS off a loss as a favorite in his career and 26-12 ATS in general off a loss. As a result of their “surprising” loss last week, we’re actually getting the Patriots much cheaper than we would have last week as this week was -13 last week and it’s now -10.5 and not only that, but there’s equal action on both sides by the public. We’re not getting line value with this team if we use the traditional yards per play differential method as that produces a “real” line of New England -5, but there are some issues with that traditional method.

The most important one is that it underrates teams like the Patriots who don’t have a lot of big plays and allow a lot of big plays, but also that are very tough to get off the field and are good at getting their opponents’ off the field. That’s why I created a stat known as rate of sustaining drives, which essentially is the rate of total 1st and 10s to first downs, essentially, on any given set of downs, how often does a team get another one (or score). The Patriots do that on 85.5% of their sets of downs, while their opponents do it on just 72.4%, giving them a league leading differential of 13.1% in that category.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 27th with a differential of -7.4%. If you take the difference of those two numbers and divide by 1.5 and add 3 for home field advantage, using this method, you get a line of New England -16.5. I’m not saying this is a better method than the traditional one or that’s it’s perfect, but it can be used to find teams that the traditional method under or overrates. At New England -10, we don’t seem to be getting any real line value either way. If there is any either way, it’s in favor of New England because -5 and -16.5 average out to be about -11.5.

Meanwhile, while the Patriots are underrated and in a good spot off of last week’s game, the Jets are in the opposite situation. Dogs of 10+ are 4-7 ATS off a wins of 21+ since 1989. It doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it seems to be for a good reason, which is that the win the week before appears to be a fluke and typically that ends up being an accurate assessment.

The Jets were able to win last week because they were able to run the ball effectively, play solid defense, and win the turnover battle, three things I think they’ll be unable to do this week. Before last week, they weren’t able to run nearly as well as they did against a banged up Colts defense. The 252 yards they rushed for last week account for 38% of the rushing yards they’ve had all season and they still rank 23rd in the league in yards per carry. Besides, the Patriots rank 4th in the league, allowing 3.4 YPC on the ground. Even Seattle, normally a run heavy team, didn’t really even try to run the ball on them last week and they weren’t effective when they attempted it.

The Patriots also 1st in the league in points per game so the Jets’ chances of stopping them are pretty slim and thus their ability to run a conservative game plan like last week (44 runs to 19 passes) is pretty limited, bad news since that’s how their team is most efficient. I also don’t think they’ll win the turnover battle like last week, when they won it 4 to 0. Not only are turnover differentials incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis, they’re playing a Patriots team that is tied for the league lead at +10 and is one of the few teams to be able to consistently win the turnover battle on a week to week basis. Since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, they’ve won the turnover battle 121 times and lost it 67 times.

If the Jets are going to have any chance to win this game, it’ll be up to Mark Sanchez to exploit the Patriots’ weakness, their secondary, like Russell Wilson did last week. However, Sanchez couldn’t even exploit Indianapolis’ secondary last week, averaging 4.6 YPA against a team that is allowing 7.6 YPA on the season. He’s completing just 49.7% of his passes for 6.4 YPA and 8 touchdowns to 6 interceptions on the season, all worse than Russell Wilson, and this is a road game for him, not a home game like it was for Wilson.

The Patriots’ secondary should also be improved this week, not just because it’s a bounce back game at home, but because they will get back Patrick Chung, who left last week with an injury. Donta Hightower is also expected back this week after missing the last 2 games. His absence has forced Rob Ninkovich to play more linebacker, which has turned their 2nd best pass rusher from a pure defensive end to someone who only rushes the passer in obvious passing situations. I hate laying this many points with any team, but this one feels like a blowout for many reasons.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NE 12 NYJ 6

Final update: No change.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: New England -10.5 (-110) 2 units

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New England Patriots: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 3-3

I already talked about the Patriots’ recent inability to close at length here so now I’ll focus on the good. They may be 3-3, but they’ve lost 3 games by a combined 4 points, all against good teams. The AFC sucks and the Patriots, given their easy schedule, should be able to get the 3rd seed at the very least. Houston looked awfully shaky last week and Baltimore might not win a rematch with all of their injuries. However, the Patriots’ defensive issues must be fixed or they will continue the trend of Super Bowl losers failing to win the Super Bowl the following year, a trend that’s stood since 1972.

Studs

LG Logan Mankins: Did not allow a pressure on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 5 attempts

RT Sebastian Vollmer: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt, 1 penalty

WR Wes Welker: Caught 10 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts on 56 pass snaps, 5.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, returned 4 punts for 68 yards

CB Alfonzo Dennard: Allowed 3 catches for 15 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Chandler Jones: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

K Stephen Gostkowski: 6 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 72.0 yards per kickoff, 18.7 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (25, 35, 35)

Duds

RB Stevan Ridley: Rushed for 34 yards (22 after contact) on 16 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 catch for no yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

LT Nate Solder: Allowed 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

WR Deion Branch: Caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 4 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

FS Patrick Chung: Allowed 4 catches for 57 yards on 4 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 penalties

CB Kyle Arrington: Allowed 3 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles

LE Jermaine Cunningham: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

DT Kyle Love: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

DT Vince Wilfork: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 assist

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