Patriots

Has Tom Brady lost it?

stevenlourie Patriots

After the Patriots lost to the Seahawks, I tweeted (@stevenlourie) this: “Cue a week long of columns about how Tom Brady has “lost it.” Seattle is a good team, especially at home. This is not surprising.” One of the things I love to talk about when I make picks is overreaction, public overreaction and media overreaction, in order to find teams that have been devalued off of one bad game. I hate putting too much stock into one game.

However, right now I’m writing an article about if Tom Brady has “lost it.” This isn’t an overreaction to one week, however. This is a reaction to a statistic that I figured out after the game that relates to not just this game, but a number of games dating back over 3 or more games. In his last 15 games in which he has held a lead of 10 or fewer heading into the 4th quarter, Tom Brady, formerly known as the most clutch quarterback alive, is 7-8.

Now, you don’t need any other number to know that’s not good, but here it is. The league as a whole since the start of the 2009 season is 320-137. That means the average quarterback when spotted that kind of lead wins at about a 70% clip. Notorious choker Tony Romo is actually 6-4. Not good, but better than the Golden Boy. Philip Rivers, whose epic meltdown on Monday Night Football has taken some of the media off of Tom Brady, is 7-6. Jay Cutler, often a media whipping boy, is 10-3. Peyton Manning is 5-1. Aaron Rodgers is 15-4. Drew Brees is 17-2. Eli Manning is 11-1. Tim Tebow (TEEEEEEEEEBOW) is 2-0. Mark Sanchez is 10-3. Blaine fucking Gabbert is 7-2.

What’s even more depressing for Patriots fans is that Tom Brady used to be golden in these situations. The last 15 games excluded, Tom Brady would be 37-3 in those games in his career. 2 of those 3 losses were postseason games (2006 AFC Championship game against Indianapolis, Super Bowl XVII). In fact, dating back to that infamous loss to the Colts in the 2006 postseason, Tom Brady is just 12-10 in those games, after being 32-1 prior.

I want to add that the Patriots haven’t become a worse team in this time period. Dating back to that Colts loss, Tom Brady is 61-19 as a starter. That’s a 76.3% winning percentage. In between, he’s won 2 MVPs, made 2 Super Bowls, had the first undefeated 16-0 regular season, set the season single record for touchdowns, set the single season record for TD:INT rate, and had a 5000 passing yard season. Prior to that loss, he was 82-25 in his career, a 76.6% winning percentage.

He hasn’t become a worse quarterback overall. The Patriots are probably going to finish with 11 or 12 wins this season and Tom Brady will be among the finalists for a 3rd MVP. He’s on pace for 32 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 4640 passing yards. He’s still winning the same amount of games as he was before.

The difference is how he is winning those games. More of them have been blowout wins, which is great and should be applauded and celebrated by Patriots fans. However, his inability to nail down wins when taking a close lead into the 4th quarter is troubling. Of his 19 losses since that Indianapolis loss, 10 of them were ones in which he took a lead of 10 or fewer into the 4th quarter. 10 of them are ones that he should be winning. He has an awesome record over the last few seasons, but he should be better.

And before you call me greedy for expecting even more from someone who’s going to be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer, remember this. Tom Brady hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 2004. He’s 4-5 in his last 9 playoff games. Blowing teams out is great in the regular season, but in the postseason, you have to be able to protect small leads heading into the 4th quarter. You’d have to be blind to see not a relationship between his recent inability to protect small leads heading into the 4th quarter and his recent lack of postseason success and Super Bowl victories.

Also note that is a “has Tom Brady lost it?” article not a “Tom Brady has lost it” article. I don’t know if he’s lost it. Quarterbacks should not be defined solely by their win-loss record. It is a team game. In fact, I’d argue that he doesn’t deserve most of the blame, but rather it’s a combination of poor defensive play and overly conservative play calling.

I’ve probably seen most, if not all of these games and I don’t remember once coming away from a game thinking “Tom Brady blew it today.” It’s always been “I hate our defense” or “why we running the ball so much?” But that’s just a hypothesis. That’s the purpose of this article, to test that hypothesis. Here’s what I found.

The Defense Sucks

In those 10 losses, the defense has surrendered a whopping 13.0 points per 4th quarter. On average since 2007, teams surrender 6.2 points per 4th quarter, so we have a defense surrendering more than twice the average. However, since 2007, the defense actually only surrendered 6.2 points per 4th quarter in general. They’ve just been especially bad in those 10 4th quarters. What’s also somewhat promising is that in those 12 wins in this situation, the Patriots’ defense has only surrendered 2.5 points per 4th quarter, which is well above average. Overall, they haven’t been horrific in the 4th quarter. They’ve just had 10 especially bad games that have led to blown leads.

Tom Brady isn’t blameless

Of course, that’s not the only problem. Yes, the Patriots do surrendered 13.0 per in the 4th quarter in those 10 losses, they score 4.3 per. The defense is horrible, but the offense isn’t helping matters. It’s been a complete team meltdown. Since 2007, Brady is completing just 58.9% of his passes for 15 TDs and 10 INTs in the 4th quarter of games within 7 points either way, so it’s not all on the coaching staff running the ball too much. Brady isn’t closing like he used to.

I wish it was only a defensive issue. That can be solved (or worked around) be continuing to be aggressive offensively and assuming that if the other team gets the ball, they’re going to score (and that’s normally true anyway). An entire team issue is something completely different. Maybe Brady hasn’t completely lost it in clutch situations, but it doesn’t look good.

Fortunately, he does so many other things well (61-19 isn’t bad at all), but this is, at the very least, a dark cloud hanging over his head, at most, something that could cost him the chance to ever win a 4th Super Bowl. One positive is that when trailing heading into the 4th quarter since that Indianapolis loss, Tom Brady is 7-9, including 7-6 when trailing by 10 or fewer (which is very strangely almost as good as his record when leading by 10 or fewer in that time period).

Situation Record since Indianapolis loss in 2006 League average in that time period
Leading by more than 10 going into 4th 41-0 97.8%
Leading by 10 or fewer going into 4th 12-10 71.3%
Trailing by 10 or fewer going into 4th 7-6 28.7%
Trailing by more than 10 going into 4th 0-3 2.2%

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Patriots, Seahawks

New England Patriots (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)

As you may know, the Seahawks have a huge home/road disparity. Since 2007, they are 29-14 ATS at home and 15-29 ATS on the road. Because of this, I love betting on their games and frequently make significant plays on them at home and against them on the road. For the first 4 weeks of the season, I was 4-0 on their games using mainly just the home/road disparity and all 4 were significant plays.

Last week, the Seahawks won in Carolina and I lost my bet, as I failed to put enough value into the Panthers’ injuries (Jon Beason, Chris Gamble) and into the fact that the Seahawks were in their 2nd straight road game. Before last week, dogs in their 2nd straight road game were 122-86 ATS since 2008. As bad as the Seahawks are on the road, they were 4-4 ATS in that situation coming into last week. Still, betting on them at home and against them on the road is generally a good idea.

This week, they are 4 point home dogs. As home dogs of 3 or more, this team is 14-4 ATS since 2007, including 2-0 this year, pulling two home upsets over the Cowboys and the Packers. Home dogs, in general, are 18-11 ATS this year, which is something. We’re also getting line value with the Seahawks. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is 0.4, in favor of Seattle, which should translate to a line of 5.5 in favor of Seattle, and that’s not even taking into account how good they are at home. We’re getting at least 9.5 points of line value with the Seahawks.

The reason the Seahawks have the superior yards per play differential is because the Patriots’ is actually negative. A 24th ranked defense in terms of yards per play allowed has a lot to do with this. They allowed 28 to the Bills and though they only allowed 21 to the Broncos, a lot of that had to do with how little the Broncos were on the field. The Broncos’ defense could not get the Patriots’ offense off the field and the Patriots dominated the time of possession battle roughly 35 minutes to 25 minutes.

The Seahawks, however, lead the league in yards per play allowed. They’ve frustrated Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and Cam Newton immensely this year, so the Patriots, at the very least, won’t dominate the time of possession battle. This will likely expose their defense. For the record, teams that run 80 plays or more in a non-overtime game are 75-97 ATS since 1989 in their next game.

There are two reasons why the Patriots’ yards per play differential is significantly inferior to their record and points differential. The first one is that they’ve become a running team. Running plays tend to get fewer yards per, but tend to translate to more consistent drives. This is one of the few flaws of yards per play. Teams that run more will look inferior to teams that pass more, even though that might not be the case. The Patriots have actually run on 191 plays, as opposed to 185 passes this year. However, the same can be said about Seattle, who has run 172 times to 125 passes, so this is not relevant this week.

The other reason is because they are dominating the turnover battle, forcing 14 takeaways to 4 giveaways. However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here.

I almost want to make an exception for the Patriots because they’ve done this for so long and because they’re so well coached and so well quarterbacked, but I really don’t think their defense can rely on takeaways like this going forward. Their offense might continue to limit turnovers. I’m not expecting Tom Brady to start suddenly turning the ball over at a high rate, but their defense won’t continue to average 2.8 takeaways per game from here on out.

Most notably, the high number of fumbles they’ve forced and recovered this year is unlikely to continue. They’re forcing and recovering 1.6 fumbles per game right now. That’s a record pace. They’ve recovered 8 of the 10 fumbles they’ve forced, which is also unlikely to continue. Even, if they continue to force fumbles at this rate, they can still only expect to recover 1 per game (5 over 5 games).

In spite of all this, the public is pounding New England likely because of how unstoppable their offense has looked in the past few weeks. That’s true. They have been pretty unstoppable, but the Seahawks probably have a better chance than anyone else they’ve faced of doing so. I love going against the public, particularly on big public leans, and that’s just another reason to love Seattle this week. This is a big play.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Sharps lean: NE 15 SEA 10

Final update: Slight sharp lean on New England, but I still like Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New England Patriots 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Seattle +4 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 3-2

It’s tough to keep this team out of the top-4 given how well they’ve played the last few weeks, but I think their head-to-head loss to Baltimore is eventually going to cost them a 1st round bye. Plus, no Super Bowl loser has gone on to win the Super Bowl since 1972. The Patriots still have issues defensively. They’ve masked them with strong offense, which has allowed them to dominate time of position in the last 2 weeks, but a good defense, like Seattle’s this week, can force their defense onto the field more. They do still have a negative yards per play differential.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 23 of 32 for 223 yards and a touchdown, 1 drop, 2 throw aways, 98.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 35 drop backs (4 sacks, 1 of 3, 1 throw away)

LT Nate Solder: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 23 yards on 4 attempts

LG Logan Mankins: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

RB Danny Woodhead: Rushed for 47 yards (18 after contact) on 7 attempts, 1 catch for 25 yards on 1 attempt

WR Wes Welker: 13 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 3.9 YAC per catch

CB Alfonzo Dennard: Did not allow a completion on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle

RE Chandler Jones: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 43 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Jerod Mayo: Allowed 8 catches for 41 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

Duds

C Ryan Wendell: Allowed 2 sacks on 40 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 72 yards on 15 attempts

MLB Brandon Spikes: Allowed 5 catches for 53 yards on 6 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Sterling Moore: Allowed 6 catches for 138 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Broncos, Patriots

Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2)

We were without it for a year, but NFL fans will get to see Brady/Manning once again this year, their 13th meeting. What Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have done over the past few years is very impressive, but no one compares to Brady and Manning when you look at the last 10 years or so as a whole. This is one of the greatest rivalries in NFL history and this might be the last time (or at the very least, one of the last times), we ever get to see it, with the two star quarterbacks aging, so this is obviously the game to watch this week. It’s not just that they’re great quarterbacks, but it’s how close and entertaining these games are. We can only hope that once these two have moved on, two quarterbacks will have a rivalry to take their place (best candidate would be Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, because of Drew Brees’ age).

Both quarterbacks are getting towards the tail ends of their careers, but both are still playing at a high level. Brady looks the closest to his vintage self (actually, he’s almost identical to his vintage self), completing 65.6% of his passes for 7.5 YPA and 7 touchdowns to 1 interceptions, all of which are better than his career averages.

Manning, meanwhile, isn’t quite the same, as you would expect since he’s a year older and has a 4 times operated on neck. However, he hasn’t been bad at all this year, completing 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, which are all right around his career averages, very impressive considering what he’s been through. He’s also done that in spite of a very tough schedule, facing Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Houston to kick off the season, before finally getting an easy one last week and having a breakout game against Oakland, completing 30 of 38 for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns. New England is a tough opponent, but their pass defense isn’t very good, so he should have a good game once again in what figures to be a shoot out.

Shoot outs are the norm for these two, as you would expect. The over is 8-4 in their 12 meetings, including 7-2 in the regular season. Because of that, I’m going to lay a unit on the over, even though I rarely make a play on the total. The total is 52 in this one. By the way, since 2010, totals larger than 50 have won over 58 times and under just 40 times.

These games are normally close too. The last 5 have all been decided by a touchdown or fewer, including the last 4 by 4 points or fewer. This week, we’re getting -6.5 points with Manning. That’s the highest the line has been in a matchup between these two quarterbacks since 2001, Brady’s first year as a starter. In fact, since then, the line has never been higher than 4. In Manning’s career as a whole, he’s only once been an underdog of 7 points or more (excluding games in which he didn’t play the entirety and excluding his rookie season of 1998). For what it’s worth, he covered and won.

The reason we’re getting so many points with him probably has something to do with public overreaction, thinking that Manning is done, when, in fact, as I illustrated earlier, he’s far from it. Despite everything he’s been through, a new and probably inferior supporting cast, and a tough slate of games so far, Manning has been about career average thus far. Against a Patriots’ secondary that allows 7.7 YPA, tied for 24th in the league, despite facing Jake Locker, Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Manning should have another huge day.

Meanwhile, these teams are much more evenly matched than this line suggests. In fact, Denver has a .5 yards per play edge in yards per play differential. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way for homefield, which suggests this line should actually be -0.5 in favor of Denver. It’s important to add a human element this time. I don’t think that’s fully accurate. Denver is a much better home team than road team with the combination of their no huddle offense and the thin atmosphere and it think, at most, these two teams are comparable. Still, either way, we’re getting some line value with Denver.

Besides, Peyton Manning is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since 2006 (excluding meaningless week 17 games). He’s 0-2 this year, but he hasn’t been an underdog this large yet and since he hasn’t really seen a decrease in production, that’s not necessarily a sign that he’s lost his touch. I really feel like we’re going to get a vintage Brady/Manning game this week, one that will be very close, so even though I like the Patriots to win at home, I’m grabbing the points and taking Peyton Manning as the largest underdog he’s been since 2002 for a significant play.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Denver covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 12 NE 10

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still like Denver.

New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 31

Pick against spread: Denver +6.5 (-110) 3 units

Over/Under: Over 52 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 2-2

In spite of their incredibly impressive win over the Buffalo Bills, I still think there are two better teams in the AFC. Houston is the obvious one and Baltimore is less obvious, more arguable, but I give Baltimore the advantage because they won the head to head matchup (albeit at home and barely) and because they have the lead in yards per play differential. Assuming Houston gets the #1 seed, I think Baltimore and New England could both end up with about 12 wins and tie for the #2 seed, with Baltimore getting the tiebreaker because they won the Head to Head matchup. That would set up a rematch in the AFC divisional round and I think since it’s in Baltimore, Baltimore would have the edge. Still, anyone who doubted the Patriots after two close losses is an idiot. There was never any doubt they would beat the Bills, just a question of how long it would take to become apparent and how big the margin of victory would be.

Studs

RB Brandon Bolden: Rushed for 137 yards (72 after contact) and a touchdown on 16 carries, 4 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 1 attempt

QB Tom Brady: 22 of 36 for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 batted passes, 2 throw aways, 3 drops, 113.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 38 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 6 of 11, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

RT Sebastian Vollmer: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

CB Devin McCourty: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 6 attempts, 2 interceptions, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

WR Wes Welker: Caught 9 passes for 129 yards on 10 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 7.3 YAC per catch

Duds

DT Kyle Love: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

CB Kyle Arrington: Allowed 3 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Patriots rule Julian Edelman, Logan Mankins, Aaron Hernandez out

stevenlourie News, Patriots

Under .500 for the first time since 2003 and heading into a crucial divisional away game in Buffalo, where the Bills lead the division right now, the Patriots are less than 100% injury wise and missing critical players. Everyone knows about the Aaron Hernandez injury. He’ll be out another week and probably won’t be back until week 6 at the earliest. Hernandez’s replacement, Julian Edelman, is also out with what’s presumed to be a broken hand (although Belichick never tells anyone anything), which means we’ll see a lot more of Brady’s old favorite target Deion Branch, recently resigned last week. However, possibly the biggest injury is one to left guard Logan Mankins.

Mankins played all last season with a torn ACL and finished the season outside the top-6 at his position on ProFootballFocus for the first time since they started keeping track in 2008, as a result. That streak of top-6 appearances from 2008-2010 is something no other guard in the league can say. It’s incredible how Mankins played through that injury, something you never hear anyone do (he tore it week 1 and had surgery after the Super Bowl), and given that, it’s kind of ironic that a hip injury is sidelining him this week. I guess this injury must be one that actually significantly limits his ability, rather than just a pain tolerance thing.

The reason I say that this is possibly the biggest injury is because Tom Brady has had success without much receiving help before. In 10 seasons, Brady has had 9 different players have impressive receiving totals and, with the exception of Randy Moss, none did anything before New England and none did anything after and Moss was acquired for a 4th round pick so it’s not like they acquired him at his peak or anything.

However, if you like to nitpick, the only flaw in Brady’s game is that if your 4 guys can beat his 5 guys, he’s beatable. He also only has completed 232 of 464 passes (50.0%) and thrown 24 touchdowns to 13 interceptions under pressure over the last 3 seasons plus, as opposed to 1061 for 1520 (69.8%) with 97 touchdowns to 25 interceptions while not under pressure. You can’t blitz him. He’s too smart for that and he’s 362 for 572 (63.3%) and has thrown 35 touchdowns to 8 interceptions when blitzed over the last 3 plus seasons. But if you can him pressure and throw off his timing with 4 guys, he’s beatable because this offense is so reliant on timing.

The offensive line has already been less than stellar this season, ranking 12th in the league in pass block efficiency, which isn’t bad, but it’s not ideal. Mankins absence definitely doesn’t help that and he’ll be replaced with the inexperienced Donald Thomas, which leaves right guard Dan Connolly as the only experienced veteran on the offensive line, and he might be the least talented of the bunch. Buffalo has a good front 4, so it’s a concern.

Still, the Patriots have a huge talent advantage in this one. They may be 1-2, to Buffalo’s 2-1, but all 3 games they’ve played have been against tougher opponents than anyone Buffalo’s played (Tennessee/NY Jets is an argument). The Patriots’ last 2 losses have come by a combined 3 points and on top that of, they’ll be extra motivated coming off two straight losses. They’re deadly off a loss in general, but they haven’t lost three straight since 2002. It’ll be a challenge and a good game, but you have to think the Patriots still have the advantage, even banged up on the road.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Week 4 NFL pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots

New England Patriots (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Patriots are under .500 for the first time since week 1 2003, snapping an NFL record for consecutive weeks under .500. Of course, they went on to go 14-2 that year and win the Super Bowl. The Patriots also haven’t lost 3 straight since 2002, the last time they missed the playoffs, so they’ll put that streak on the line as well tonight. Do I think they snap that streak as well? Well, anything’s possible, but I’m not going to bet it.

This is the exact situation the Patriots thrive in. Tom Brady is 25-12 ATS off a loss in his career (including a cover last week, which was not a BS cover because the Patriots led ATS the entire night), and 10-1 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points), which was also a situation in play last week. I try to watch as little of the talking heads on television as I possibly can, but whenever it’s been unavoidable (like during the Thursday Night telecast this week), one of the main topics was “how can the Patriots get it together?” You know the Patriots are using that as bulletin board material, just like their 1-2 record.

Plus, I also find that question pretty stupid. It’s not like the Patriots are in disarray or anything. They’ve lost 2 straight games by a combined 2 points to two teams that are a combined 6-1. Extra motivated by all the doubt and facing an easier team, the Patriots should bounce back this week. They’ve gotten off to slow starts in their last 2 years, starting 1-1 in 2010 and 2-1 and 5-3 last year, before eventually going on 13-1 and 8-0 runs respectively, 13-2 and 10-1 if you include playoffs. This is the most consistent franchise in the NFL over the last decade and as weird as this season has been, I think the weirdest thing that could happen would be this team falling to 1-3 against an old punching bag and looking poised to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2002, especially since Tom Brady isn’t even playing badly or anything (66.9% completion, 7.5 YPA, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception).

Speaking of the old punching bag Bills, I call them that because they’re not really a punching bag any more. They stand at 2-1 and they have a solid defense, a solid running game, a fantastic offensive line, and a quarterback who can move the chains if you give him time. However, they’re really built to win games against bad teams where they can establish their game plan.

Considering their game plans starts with a strong defense that allows their conservative offense to function, this week could be a rude awakening for them. Tom Brady is playing just fine and just scored 29 points on the Ravens, even in a loss. They will probably not be able to run as much as they normally do (and both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are questionable), which will put more pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick than you would like, bad news for a quarterback who leads the league in interceptions over the last calendar year.

The one matchup concern I have is how good Buffalo’s offensive line is. They rank 1st in the league in pass block efficiency, which is no fluke because they did the same thing last year. The Patriots secondary is not very good and if you give him time, any quarterback can tear it up, at least in theory. I say in theory because, while Fitzpatrick had a great game the first time these two met last year (27 of 40 for 369 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions), he really struggled in their next meeting, going 29 of 46 for 307 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The Patriots are great at game planning so it’s possible they just figured out Chan Gailey’s scheme and made Fitzpatrick look like the system quarterback he is.

The Bills might not be a punching bag any more, but their 3 games have come against very easy opponents. In fact, you can argue that all 3 teams they’ve played are worse than each of the 3 teams the Patriots have played (Tennessee/NY Jets is debatable). The pissed off Patriots should be able to make them look like a punching bag this week. The only reason this isn’t a pick of the week is because the public is pounding the Patriots (though the line movement is going in the right direction) and the public is 4-12 on heavy leans this year. Also home dogs are 13-6 ATS this season, including 12-7 straight up, but I think that had more to do with the replacement refs than anything. I also don’t like that I don’t have field goal protection because there could be a backdoor cover, but I expect the Patriots to come out on fire and put the Bills away early to shut up their critics. Them starting 1-3 would just be too weird.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): BUF 6 NE 10

Update: This was feeling like a bit of a trap line, so I’m glad to see the sharps like New England too. I’m not dropping any units.

New England Patriots 34 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5 (-110) 3 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 3 (-2)

Record: 1-2

The Patriots are under .500 for the first time since week 1 of 2003, but they’ll be fine. Over the past couple of years, they’ve started a little sluggish and then hit their stride. This week, they go to Buffalo to face an old punching bag and hope to avoid their first 3 game losing streak since 2002. They’re still the most consistent team in the league over the last decade. Tom Brady looks great as usual and their division is pretty easy, as is their schedule. Baltimore is the only tough road opponent they had. They’ll make the playoffs with ease, win a punch of games, and maybe even get a first round bye. However, no Super Bowl loser has won the Super Bowl since 1972 and unless the Patriots can fix things on defense, that streak will extend another year.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 28 of 41 for 335 yards and a touchdown, 1 throw away, 5 drops, 104.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 45 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 7, 1 throw away)

LT Nate Solder: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for -1 yards on 2 attempts

WR Wes Welker: Caught 8 passes for 142 yards on 10 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 8.1 YAC per catch, 1 drop

Duds

TE Rob Gronkowski: 1 penalty, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 8 pass block snaps, 2 catches for 21 yards on 3 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

MLB Brandon Spikes: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 penalty, allowed 2 catches for 68 yards on 2 attempts

CB Kyle Arrington: Allowed 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Patriots sign Kellen Winslow, bring back Deion Branch

stevenlourie News, Patriots

The Patriots suffered a major loss to one of their top receivers last week as tight end Aaron Hernandez suffered a high ankle sprain that is expected to keep him out 4-6 weeks. Losing Hernandez forced the Patriots to scrap their game plan very early in the game and it was definitely one of the reason why the Patriots suffered a major upset loss at home at the hands of the Cardinals. Without Hernandez, the Patriots had to go from being a two-tight end base team to a three-wide receiver base team because, for as many tight ends as they have on their roster, they didn’t have another one who could function as the move tight end like Hernandez did.

This week, the Patriots have signed Kellen Winslow to be that move tight end. Winslow is a poor blocker and he’s obviously not on the level as Hernandez as a pass catcher, but he’s closer to Hernandez than anyone they have. He’s exceeded 730 receiving yards in all 5 seasons as a pro in which he’s played all 16 games, despite never having the best group of quarterback throwing to him, and he’s played in all 16 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons. However, long term durability issues led to the 29 year old being traded by the Buccaneers to the Seahawks for a mere 7th round pick and then Seattle cutting him as part of final cuts. Still, he’s got some talent as a pass catcher and he will allow the Patriots to use more two-tight end looks this week than they did last week.

However, they will still be unable to feature the two-tight end look, which means we’re going to be seeing a lot more three-wide receiver looks than normal. Because of that, the Patriots have brought back a familiar face, signing wide receiver Deion Branch, who was cut in final cuts. In three-wide receiver sets, the Patriots will use Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Julian Edelman, who has always played well when needed.

However, they really lacked depth behind those 2 as Matt Slater is primarily on the roster for his special teams value and 2011 4th round pick Greg Salas, acquired from St. Louis for a late round pick before the season started, is apparently not game ready as they cut him and added him to the practice squad in favor of signing Branch to the active roster. He doesn’t have a whole lot left in the tank, but he’s knows the playbook like the back of his hand and he has the kind of chemistry with Tom Brady where they could complete passes with their eyes closed.

Obviously, Hernandez’s loss hurts, but no team adapts better than the Patriots do. In 2010, they traded Randy Moss, then a key of their offense, and went to more two-tight end looks with two rookie tight ends by the name of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This week, they’re just doing the opposite. They did a poor job of adapting mid game last week, which is part of why they lost, but no one adapts better on a week to week basis than Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

Given that and given Tom Brady’s history when people are doubting him (In his career off a loss, he’s 28-8 SU, 24-12 ATS, off an upset loss he’s 17-4 SU, 15-6 ATS, as an underdog he’s 24-16 SU, 27-12 ATS (13-4 ATS since 2003), as an underdog off a loss he’s 11-1 SU, 11-1 ATS, and as an underdog off an upset loss 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS), I really like the Patriots to win this week. They’re being undervalued off of last week’s loss and probably are actually more likely to win after their loss last week, given their history. On top of that, the Ravens are a bit overrated. Clearly missing Terrell Suggs and other offseason losses, the Ravens have given an uncharacteristic 808 yards in 2 games, 27th in the league, and Joe Flacco had a poor showing last week after a “breakout” week 1 performance.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Could Patriots trade Wes Welker?

stevenlourie News, Patriots

There has been some buzz this week that the Patriots could potentially trade Wes Welker. Welker, after having a poor showing in the opener, catching just 3 passes for 14 yards, did not start week 2 against the Cardinals and only saw the field in 3-wide receiver sets for the most part. An Aaron Hernandez injury left them using lots of 3-wide receiver sets, with Welker alongside Julian Edelman, who got the start, and Brandon Lloyd, another starter, allowing Welker to catch 5 passes for 95 yards. However, there is some speculation that Belichick might have been using the game against the previously lowly Cardinals as an opportunity to see what his offense would look like with Julian Edelman in Wes Welker’s role.

This certainly would not have been the most surprising thing Bill Belichick has ever done, as he’s cut Lawyer Milloy in his prime, trading Randy Moss midseason, and traded Richard Seymour right before the start of the season. It would also make some sense. Welker is in the final year of his contract and will be 32 next offseason and there’s a general sense that he won’t be back with the Patriots unless he takes less money than his production would suggest he’s owed. The Patriots have always been a team over player organization and probably feel that Welker, who was a mere average slot receiver before joining the Patriots, needs them more than they need him.

It would be weird for a Super Bowl contender to trade a big piece of their team mid season, but if the Patriots had concluded that Edelman, a similar style player, would be a suitable substitute, it would make sense for them to move him for the right price. I’ve said on numerous occasions this offseason that the Patriots moving Welker midseason would not shock me and the events of the last 2 weeks would seem to back that up.

Hernandez’s injury throws a wrench in the plan a little bit because without him, they need all 3 of their wide receivers. However, the trade deadline has been moved to later in October this year and there’s a good chance that Hernandez (who was given a 4-6 timetable for recovery) is back before that. If Edelman can prove himself in Hernandez’s absence, the Patriots might see Welker as unnecessary and go forward with Rob Gronkowski, Hernandez, Lloyd, and Edelman as their top 4 receivers.

The question is what they could get in return for him. Teams always get suspicious when other teams try to sell “star” players and automatically assume there’s something wrong with him, especially when it’s the Patriots how are trying to sell, given their history of winning deals. On top of that Welker would just be a half season rental. The Patriots got a 3rd rounder for Randy Moss in 2010 and that might be all they would get in return for him this year. It might take a 2nd rounder though for the Patriots to pull the trigger.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]