Patriots

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens

New England Patriots (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

Yes, the Patriots to the Cardinals lost last week. No, it’s not the end of the world. In 2010, they lost to the Browns. In 2011, they lost to the Bills. Neither of those games meant anything. They won 14 games in 2010 and 13 games in 2011. This is still the most consistent franchise over the past decade. This is football. Sometimes shit happens that doesn’t make any sense and is completely unpredictable that doesn’t mean anything.

But it is important to look at how the Patriots lost to the Cardinals. The Patriots outgained the Cardinals 387 to 245 and averaged 5.0 yards per play to the Cardinals’ 4.0 and they won the turnover battle 2-1. As a result, the Patriots led 6 drives into scoring range to Arizona’s 4. However, the difference was, on New England’s 6 trips into scoring range, they scored just 1 touchdown and settled for 5 field goals, one of which was the potential game winner, which missed. Arizona scored 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals on their 4 trips into scoring range. The Patriots also committed 8 penalties to Arizona’s 5. Historically though, whether or not you win the yardage battle the most accurate indicator of future performance. The Patriots actually rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play differential (I’ll get into this more later).

The other main reason the Patriots lost was the injury to Aaron Hernandez. If you lose one of the focal points of your offense that early like the Patriots did, you basically have to scrap your whole game plan and that puts you at a massive disadvantage. Hernandez is out for this one, which still hurts, but it won’t hurt as much as it did last week because the Patriots have gotten an entire week to adapt. They will be using more 3-wide receiver looks this week and Kellen Winslow, recently signed, will see some action as the move tight end in specialized situations.

Winslow is not Hernandez obviously, but he’s closer to him than anyone else on the team. Without Hernandez last week, they could run two-tight end sets because they didn’t have a move tight end on the roster, running their signature package on just 4 of 50 pass plays after the injury. The Patriots adapt better than probably any other team in the league. I expect them to do that this week and minimize the loss of Hernandez as much as they can. Julian Edelman will see more snaps in his absence and he looked good last week.

So basically the conclusion is that the Patriots’ loss last week, however surprising, was very explainable in hindsight and doesn’t matter that much going forward. However, this line suggests it does. The line has moved 3 points since last week, going from even to -3 in favor of Baltimore, who, by the way, also lost last week. There’s a lot of overreaction and because of that, there’s good line value here.

Besides, if history is any indication, the Patriots loss last week makes it MORE likely they’ll win this week. Tom Brady is amazing when people doubt him. Last week’s loss did just enough to get people to doubt him. In his career off a loss, he’s 28-8 SU, 24-12 ATS, off an upset loss he’s 17-4 SU, 15-6 ATS, as an underdog he’s 24-16 SU, 27-12 ATS (13-4 ATS since 2003), as an underdog off a loss he’s 11-1 SU, 11-1 ATS, and as an underdog off an upset loss 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS.

This game reminds me of the Patriots’ games in Pittsburgh and New York (against the Jets) in each of the last 2 years respectively. All of those aforementioned situations were true in those 2 games as well and I made huge plays on the Patriots in each of those two games and won both times. Both of these games were on the road against similar caliber opponents. And the Patriots didn’t just win those games; they dominated them, beating Pittsburgh 39-26 and the Jets 37-16. In fact, historically in this situation, they dominate teams. In those 11 wins as an underdog off a loss, the Patriots have outscored opponents by a whopping 16.6 points per game.

Now let’s move onto the Ravens. The Ravens right now, I think, are a little bit overrated. They’re clearly missing Terrell Suggs and others they lost this offseason. Their defensive performance in their first 2 games has been very unravenlike. The 808 yards they’ve allowed in those 2 games ranks 27th in the NFL. They’ve won the turnover battle in each of those 2 games and have a +4 turnover differential overall, but as I’ve said so many times, turnover differentials can be very inconsistent on a week to week and year to year basis. The Ravens can’t keep relying on forcing turnovers to stop people, especially against an opponent in the Patriots who, in spite of what I just said about the inconsistency of turnovers, have managed to maintain any incredibly low turnover rate over the past decade. This is not the same defense that kept Tom Brady in check in the AFC Championship Game last year and arguably allowed Joe Flacco to outplay Brady statistically.

Speaking of Joe Flacco, he had a great opener against Cincinnati completing 21 of 29 for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns before falling flat against Philadelphia, completing 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Which one is the real Joe Flacco? Probably neither. The Bengals team he torched in the opener was missed two of their top cornerbacks and had the washed up Nate Clements and the also washed up Terence Newman seeing a bunch of snaps next to Leon Hall, who was 10 months removed from an Achilles tear and was uncharacteristically torched for over 100 yards by himself. They were also without top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. Missing that same trio, the Bengals were torched by the Browns the following week as Brandon Weeden, whose QB rating the week before was 5.1, completed 26 of 37 for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns.

However, he’s not as bad as he looked against Philadelphia. Philadelphia is one of the best defenses in the league (they’re a big part of the reason why Weeden’s QB rating was 5.1 in the opener). Most likely, he’s still the same quarterback he’s always been. Any talk of a breakout year from him is premature, but any talk of a down year for him is equally short sighted. This year, he’s completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.5 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Those numbers are eerily similar to his career numbers, 60.8% completion 7.1 YPA, and 83 touchdowns to 47 interceptions. He’s still the same quarterback he’s always been.

So what’s the difference? The difference is schematically. The Ravens have gone to more of a no huddle, pass first offense this year. They’ve had a designed run on just 35.2% of their offensive snaps this year. For reference, last year, they ran on 40.5% of their offensive snaps. Joe Flacco is still the same quarterback he’s always been, but the coaching staff seems to think otherwise as they’ve upped his responsibility enormously and I don’t think he’s ready for that.

Meanwhile, while this is not the same Ravens defense that held Tom Brady in check last year, allowing Joe Flacco to arguably outplay him statistically, this is not the same Patriots defense that allowed Joe Flacco to arguably outplay Tom Brady statistically. Last year, like the Ravens are now, the Patriots were very reliant on turnovers for stops, ranking 29th in yards per play allowed, 6.0 (for reference, Baltimore is 20th at 5.6 this year as opposed to 1st at 4.6 last year), but forced 34 turnovers, most in the AFC (for reference, Baltimore was right in the middle at 26).

This year, the Patriots rank 5th in yards per play allowed (part of how they rank 6th in yards per play differential), allowing 4.3, but they’ve forced a much more middle of the pack 4 turnovers in 2 games. Part of this low yards per play allowed average is the competition (Tennessee and Arizona), but also part of it is an actual improvement in play. They’ve gotten several guys back from injury and several newcomers are playing very well. They’re no longer as reliant on turnovers to stop people; the Ravens are the ones who actually fit that description better now.

Flacco and the Ravens won’t find it as easy to move the ball as they did last year, especially if they continue to be as pass heavy as they have been, which isn’t really the most efficient game plan for this offense and this group of offensive personnel. Brady, meanwhile, should be able to move the ball easier than he did last year against a Baltimore defense that has been uncharacteristically bad through 2 games.

Baltimore’s uncharacteristically bad defensive play has not been the result of level of competition. Allowing 486 points to the Eagles is somewhat understandable, but allowing 322 to the Bengals is much more head scratching. Andy Dalton and the Bengals are an overrated team, specifically on offense. I mentioned how bad their defense has been, especially with all of those injuries, but their offense really struggles too, especially against tougher competition. Andy Dalton was 0-8 against playoff teams last year and completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in those 8 games. In those 8 games, they only exceeded the 322 yards they had against Baltimore week 1 three times. In the opener, Joe Flacco had a good game against a terrible defense and a mediocre offense moved the ball better than it should have. Week 2, Joe Flacco did not have a good game and the defense was pretty atrocious. That’s why I say the Ravens are overrated. In terms of yards per play differential, they rank 12th.

This line, -3 in favor of the Ravens, is not only an overreaction to a fluky Patriots’ loss to the Cardinals, but it overrates the Ravens. I don’t think these two teams are equal, which is what the line suggests (3 points for home field advantage). On top of that, this is the exact situation that Tom Brady and the Patriots thrive in, people are doubting them, they’re coming off a loss, they’re underdogs against a tough opponents on the road, they’ll have a bounce back game. Like the Patriots/Jets game last year and the Patriots/Steelers game in 2010, the Patriots are going to be a huge bet here.

Two things that worry me here: the Ravens have won 12 straight at home and this is a huge revenge game for the Ravens. However, in those 12 games, the Ravens are just 6-5-1 ATS. Meanwhile, while this will be a huge game for the Ravens, who feel they deserved to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl last year, this is also a huge game for the Patriots, who are playing for respect coming off an embarrassing loss and playing a huge game on Sunday Night Football. It’s a statement game for both teams. Both teams are going to put everything they have into this week. It’s just a matter of which quarterback do you trust in a statement game more, Joe Flacco or Tom Brady. I don’t know about you, but I’m going with Brady.

Plus, teams seeking to get revenge for a playoff loss are just 18-24 ATS since 2008, so there’s no real trend that says teams play better and are more likely to cover when they’re trying to avenge a playoff loss. That makes sense as those types of games are normally between two good teams and are huge statement games for both sides. I’m making a huge play on the Patriots this week in this statement game. This is my pick of the month. Bet the farm on this one and if you don’t have a farm, buy one and I promise you that you’ll have two in a week. For the record, this is only the 8th time in 2 plus years of doing this that I’ve made a 6 unit bet. I’m 5-2 (Pats over Jets last year was one).

Update: I’m not putting any more units on this one, but I forgot to mention that the Patriots are in one of my favorite situations, dogs after a loss as a favorite before being favorites. The Patriots go to Buffalo next week. Teams are 44-21 ATS since 2008 in this situation (24-8 ATS since 2010). Also, teams coming off a loss as 13+ point favorites are 26-18 ATS since 1989. This is one of my favorite plays ever.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New England covers)

New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: New England+3 (-120) 6 units

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New England Patriots: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 1-1

In 2010, the Patriots lost to the Browns. In 2011, the Patriots lost to the Bills. They won 14 games in 2010 and 13 games in 2011. It wasn’t the end of the world then and it’s not the end of the world now. It’s football. Sometimes shit just happens for no reason. If the Patriots lost to the Ravens this week, then they’ve got an issue, but given Tom Brady’s career record off a loss (28-8 SU, 24-12 ATS), his record off an upset loss (17-4 SU, 15-6 ATS), his record as an underdog (24-16 SU, 27-12 ATS), his record as an underdog off a loss (11-1 SU, 11-1 ATS), and his record as an underdog off an upset loss (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS), I think the Patriots bounce back this week in what’s going to be a statement game for whoever wins. The Patriots have been in a similar situation in each of the last 2 years and beat the Jets 37-16 last year and the Steelers 39-26 the year before, both on the road and both good teams at the time. If anything, their loss last week made them more likely to win this week, because it delivered the wake up they needed.

Studs

RT Sebastian Vollmer: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for -1 yards on 1 attempt

RG Donald Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 31 yards on 6 attempt

CB Devin McCourty: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles

MLB Brandon Spikes: Allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 4 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hit on 4 blitzes

SS Patrick Chung: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

RE Chandler Jones: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

CB Kyle Arrington: Allowed 5 catches for 62 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

P Zoltan Mesko: 5 punts for 152 yards, 2 of 5 inside 20, 1 return for 3 yards, 21.5 net yards per punt

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Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Patriots

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New England Patriots (0-1)

Kevin Kolb looked good in relief of an injured John Skelton last week, leading the game winning drive to beat the Seahawks, but the Seahawks are a mediocre to average team that always seems to flop on the road. The Patriots in Foxboro are going to obviously be a much tougher challenge. The offense has taken on new dimensions with the addition of Brandon Lloyd as a deep threat, the promotion of the more explosive Stevan Ridley at running back, and the re-addition of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator; they didn’t even need Wes Welker in the opener.

Welker barely did anything. They have so many weapons that it didn’t even matter. They can still have a great game even if one of their top 4 receivers doesn’t do anything. Tom Brady looks as good as ever and the offensive line, a concern heading into the game, held up just enough to allow everyone else enough time to keep open and Tom Brady to find them.

Defensively, they seem to be much improved from last season. Last year, like the Packers, they gave up a bunch of yards like the Packers did, but did alright defensively because they forced a bunch of turnovers. Forcing a bunch of turnovers is not something that’s reliable on a yearly basis, but unlike the Packers, the Patriots’ defense seems to have gotten even better, particularly in the front 7; their secondary may still have some questions, but they have a big, physical offensive front with Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Rod Ninkovich, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo and adequate depth.

They can get pressure against anyone, pressuring Locker on 14 of 36 dropbacks, against a Tennessee offensive line that surrendered the 2nd fewest sacks in the league last year, and they are fierce against the run, holding to 20 yards rushing on 16 attempts, with 11 of those coming on 2 quarterback scrambles.

This doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals. The Cardinals found no running home against a tough Seahawks run defense last week, rushing for 43 yards on 20 carries and this week shouldn’t be much difference. Meanwhile, they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, so the Patriots should be able to get pressure on Kevin Kolb early and often, which is a very bad thing for the Cardinals.

Even though Kolb looked decent in very limited action last week, leading a game winning drive, it doesn’t change the fact that Kolb has very poor pocket presence. Kolb took a sack on 26.1% of pressured dropbacks last year, 3rd worst among eligible quarterbacks, and in 2010 he was 6th, taking one on 23.2% of pressured drop backs. Even with the Patriots’ less than stellar secondary, Kolb should have trouble consistently moving the ball against the Patriots’, unsupported by a running game, and since the Patriots’ offense can put pressure on the opposing offense better than maybe any team in the league, he could be forced into several turnovers.

This should be a very easy win for the Patriots, especially since the Cardinals are travelling across the country to play 1 PM ET start as a West Coast team, a situation teams tend to struggle in. The Patriots are one of the best teams in the league and the Cardinals are one of the worst. This isn’t a very big bet, because this is a huge line, but all signs point to this being a blowout. This is also my choice for survivor pick of the week, for anyone who does that type of thing (last week, it was Houston).

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

New England Patriots 38 Arizona Cardinals 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England Patriots -14 (-110) 1 unit

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New England Patriots: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 1-0

Super Bowl runner up hasn’t won the Super Bowl since Super Bowl XII or even made the Super Bowl since XXVIII. If anyone can end that, it’s the Patriots. The defense, unlike the Packers’ actually seems improved from last season, while the offense adds a new dimension with Brandon Lloyd coming in and Stevan Ridley becoming the starter. Tom Brady looks as good as ever and the offensive line held up, which was my biggest concern, albeit against a Titan pass rush that managed just 28 sacks last year.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 23 of 31 for 236 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 2 drops, 103.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured 12 times

RB Stevan Ridley: 125 yards (82 after contact) and a touchdown on 21 carries, 5 broken tackles, 2 catches for 27 yards on 3 attempts

TE Rob Gronkowski: 6 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts on 28 pass plays, run blocked for 62 yards and a touchdown on 9 carries

LOLB Dont’a Hightower: 3 quarterback pressures on 8 blitzes, 5 solo tackles and 4 stops on 10 run snaps, allowed 5 catches for 39 yards on 7 attempts

MLB Jerod Mayo: 12 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 7 run stops on 15 run plays, 1 penalty, allowed 5 catches for 28 yards on 6 attempts

DT Vince Wilfork: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback pressures on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle and 1 stop on 11 run snaps

FS Tavon Wilson: Allowed 4 catches for 24 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles and 1 stop on 7 run plays

RE Chandler Jones: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops on 14 run snaps

Duds

LT Nate Solder: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits allowed on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 carries

WR Wes Welker: 3 catches for 14 yards on 5 targets on 22 pass snaps, 4.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop

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Patriots’ Logan Mankins played all of 2011 with a torn ACL

stevenlourie News, Patriots

The Patriots are notorious for being secretive with injuries, but this is crazy. It was originally reported that Mankins partially tore his ACL in the Super Bowl and had surgery immediately after, though that was not even reported until about a month later. However, it appears that was not even accurate as, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Mankins suffered the injury against the Dolphins, week 1 of the 2011 season and played not just the rest of the game, not just the other 15 games of the regular season, but 3 more playoff games before getting surgery. Schefter calls him “one of the rare, if not the only, player ever to have played an entire 16-game season with a torn ACL,” and I would agree with that. I’ve never heard of anything like this.

I’ve mentioned at times before that Mankins had a slightly down season in 2011. He wasn’t bad or anything, but he wasn’t his normal dominant self. A top-6 guard on ProFootballFocus every season from 2008-2010 (1st, 6th, 3rd), something no one else can say, Mankins ranked “just” 31st last season, pretty middle of the pack out of 76 eligible. Considering his injury status, that might be the most impressive season of his career. Now fully healthy, there’s no reason why he can’t go back to being his normal dominant self in 2012 and make his 5th Pro Bowl (2007, 2009, 2010, 2011). He’s a true, dependable bright spot on an otherwise question filled offensive line for the Patriots.

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Patriots aren’t expecting Brian Waters to show up

stevenlourie News, Patriots

The Patriots held out to the very last moment, keeping his locker and his spot on the roster, but it appears that Brian Waters is not walking through that door for the Patriots. According to the Boston Herald, the Patriots have taken his nameplate off the locker and any speculation that Waters could return “should just about come to an end.” Waters presence for the season was a question all offseason, but apparently the Patriots wanted him to take a pay cut down to the veteran’s minimum heading into his age 35 season and he didn’t feel it was worth leaving his family in Texas for that.

Waters will definitely be missed. ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated guard in 2011, Waters would have almost certainly been an asset to the Patriots even at his age. His presence would have not only upgraded the right guard position, where the mediocre Dan Connolly now starts, but it would have allowed Connolly to move to center, where would have provided a more experienced option over Ryan Wendell, a former undrafted free agent who won the job over Dan Koppen in the preseason. Wendell has played well in his career in limited action, but it remains to be seen if he can keep it up over a full season.

The Patriots offensive line is looking like a real problem, especially since Sebastian Vollmer is questionable for week 1 with lower back problems. Left tackle Nate Solder is a 2011 1st round rookie who needs to step it up this season as Brady’s full time blindside protector. Only left guard Logan Mankins is dependable on this line. Tom Brady is not on the level of Drew Brees and Peyton Manning when it comes to dealing with pressure. He’s taken a sack on 15.7% pressured drop backs, which is good, but not great.

He also only has completed 220 of 441 passes (49.9%) and thrown 23 touchdowns to 13 interceptions under pressure over the last 3 season, as opposed to 994 for 1425 (69.8%) with 94 touchdowns to 24 interceptions while not under pressure. If you want to nitpick his game, this is the area to do it. If you can beat his offensive line with 4 guys (like the Giants), Brady is stoppable. This has a chance to derail what otherwise looks like an explosive offense with the addition of Brandon Lloyd at wide receiver and Stevan Ridley emerging at running back.

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New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Patriots, Titans

New England Patriots (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

The Titans are one of my favorite sleeper teams. Defensively, they had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year and while they lost Cortland Finnegan, the combination of an improved pass rush (with Derrick Morgan finally healthy and Kamerion Wimbley coming in), their depth at cornerback (new starter Alterraun Verner played very well last season), and the continued maturation of their young defense (6 of 11 starters last year had been drafted in 2009 or later) will make up for that.

Offensively, they will continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and their run blocking should be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson should be back to his old self, while Kenny Britt returns from injury. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando. Britt, meanwhile, missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games.

In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board. Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action). Basically, I feel the same way about the Titans that I did at this point last year about the Lions, who proved me right.

The Titans are clearly underrated as 6 point home underdogs (with negative juice at -105). That translates to a line of -12 in New England (3 points each way for home field). For reference, Buffalo was just -11 in New England week 17 of last year and they finished 6-10. Meanwhile, the Patriots were -7 in Washington last year towards the end of the season and they finished 5-11 (and failed to cover). The Titans were 9-7 last year and might have a top-10 offense and defense this year. Even if you don’t agree with me that the Titans will be good, you have to agree that they’ll be better than 5-11 or 6-10. There’s serious line value here.

On top of all this, the Patriots were Super Bowl runner ups last year. Those teams are 3-15 ATS week 1 the following season. The Steelers got blown out in Baltimore last year in this same situation. The Patriots, believe it or not, are actually only 5-5 ATS in the Belichick/Brady era week 1 (9-1 SU), so they won’t be immune to this “curse.” Another thing I like to see, the Titans opened -7 and immediately almost all of the action went on New England, about 90%, and yet the line dropped. That’s a tell tale sign of a trap line. The odds makers really want you to bet New England. As a general rule, it’s a good idea not to do what the odds makers want you to. If the Titans had Kenny Britt (he’ll miss this game with suspension) and it wasn’t Jake Locker’s 1st career start, I’d make the Titans co-pick of the week. Instead, it’ll be a smaller, but still fairly large bet.

Tennessee Titans 27 New England Patriots 24 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans +6 (-105) 4 units

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New England Patriots Final Roster Analysis

stevenlourie Final Roster Analysis, Patriots

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady was the obvious lock, but Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer were battling throughout the preseason for the primary backup job. Neither fared particularly well as Mallett completed just 49.3% of his passes for 4.5 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, while Brian Hoyer completed just 46.8% for 4.2 YPA, 1 touchdown, and an interception. Rather than keeping both, as they did last year, the Patriots went back to a roster with just two quarterbacks and made a somewhat surprising cut of Brian Hoyer.

Hoyer, frequently regarded as one of the better backups in the league before this offseason, was popularly thrown into trade talks with quarterback needy teams by members of the media, but it appears that the media was overrated him. He generated no interest in trade talks and, heading into a contract year owed 1.927 million, he was seen as too expensive for a backup by the Patriots. It’s definitely possible that Mallett won this battle because of his draft status (3rd round pick in 2011), age (24 vs. 27), contract length (3 years instead of 1) and salary (Mallett is owed just $509,000 this season).

Hoyer will catch on somewhere either as a primary or a 3rd quarterback and while Belichick is saying that Mallett earned the backup job, he shouldn’t feel confident if Mallett has to see extended playing time in the absence of Brady this season, based on the 2nd year player’s shaky preseason. Julian Edelman, the team’s swiss army knife, will serve as the team’s emergency 3rd quarterback. Edelman, a wide receiver and return man, was a collegiate quarterback and also saw snaps at defensive back last season.

Running backs

Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, and Danny Woodhead were all safe. Ridley and Vereen were 3rd and 2nd round picks respectively last season, though their current standing on the depth chart does not reflect their draft status, while Woodhead will continue to serve in a specialized 3rd down role and contribute on special teams as a return man. The only question here was whether or not the Patriots would keep 4 backs or 3 and the answer was 4 as undrafted free agent Brandon Bolden won a roster spot with strong play on special teams in Training Camp and the preseason.

The Patriots did not cut a single running back, but they did put Jeff Demps on IR with a leg “injury.” It’s very likely that the Patriots just did this so they wouldn’t have to cut him and so they could keep him around for 2013. The undrafted free agent signed very late in the offseason after competing in the Olympics so he doesn’t know the system well, but his athletic gifts were too good for the Patriots to let go.

One thing that does stand out is that the Patriots did not keep a single fullback. Eric Kettani, a 2009 undrafted free agent who spent the last 3 years in the Navy, was the only fullback on the 75 man roster and he was cut as part of final cuts. Bolden, a bigger back at 220 pounds, could play some fullback, as could Aaron Hernandez, who had success late last season as a ball carrier and spent time after practice taking carries from Tom Brady during Training Camp. Hernandez will also see action at wide receiver, in addition to tight end and full back. The Patriots’ depth at tight end (4), makes up for their lack of a true fullback.

Offensive Line

Perhaps the most surprising cut by the Patriots was their release of Dan Koppen. Koppen, their long time starting center, missed all of last season with injury, but had been working as the team’s 1st team center throughout most of the preseason, with Dan Connolly, the incumbent, working at right guard in place of the still MIA Brian Waters. However, it appears that Koppen has been beaten out by Ryan Wendell, who has played very well in limited action over the last 2 seasons. Still, he’s inexperienced and it’s unknown how undrafted free agent would handle full season as a starter.

Dan Koppen’s salary was reasonable for a backup at $850,000, but the Patriots opted to cut him anyway and replace him with Matt Tennant, waived by the Saints as part of final cuts. Tennant is a 2010 4th round pick and will serve as Wendell’s primary backup unless Brian Waters reports and moves Dan Connolly to center.

The Patriots are obviously hoping that Brian Waters reports sometime between now and Wednesday, their first full regular season practice. Not only would they be getting back a deserving 2011 Pro Bowler, but that would allow Connolly to move to center if they wanted him to. Connolly wasn’t great last season, but he obviously has the experience edge. Waters is currently contemplating retirement. The Patriots have left a roster spot open for him. If he doesn’t, center and right guard are major problem areas for the Patriots.

Left guard is more secure with Logan Mankins continuing to start there. Donald Thomas will be his primary backup as Nick McDonald is on the right side. At offensive tackle, the Patriots will start Nate Solder on the left side and Sebastian Vollmer on the right side and Marcus Cannon, a 2011 5th round pick who is healthy following a cancer scare last season, will serve as the swing tackle. The Patriots kept 9 offensive linemen in all.

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Receiving Corps

Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd were the obvious locks, but the Patriots cut just about every other veteran wide receiver with Chad Ochocinco and Anthony Gonzalez getting cut before Training Camp, Donte Stallworth getting cut before final cuts and both Jabar Gaffney and Deion Branch getting cut at final cuts. Gaffney got a signing bonus of $250,000 when he signed earlier this offseason and has familiarity with both Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels, playing for the Patriots from 2006-2008 and the Broncos from 2009-2010.

However, an injury led to his release. He was expressed interest in returning when he’s healthy and his salary will not be fully guaranteed. The soon to be 32 year old was Washington’s leading receiver last year and would probably find work somewhere if the Patriots were not interested in bringing him back. As for Deion Branch, he is heading into his age 33 season and looked to be close to done down the stretch last season. Never a great athlete, Branch’s best attribute was his route running and timing with Tom Brady. If the Patriots, who he was most valuable to, cut him despite a veteran’s minimum salary, he won’t get a lot of looks around the league and may have to retire.

In place of the veteran receivers, the Patriots kept Julian Edelman and Matt Slater, two young receivers, age 26 and 27 respectively, who play special teams and also played on defense last season. Jesse Holley, another young receiver, was let go. The Patriots also traded a 2015 conditional late round pick to the Rams for Greg Salas, who was drafted in the 4th round just last year when Josh McDaniels was with the Rams as offensive coordinator. He’s got some nice upside, but will start the season as the 5th receiver.

At tight end, the Patriots kept 4 which is rare. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were obvious, but it was believed that Daniel Fells and Visanthe Shiancoe were competing for one spot and that Fells would win because Shiancoe was hurt. However, they kept both and now not only have the most talented top-2 tight ends in the league, but the deepest tight end position. Their depth at tight end will help counteract their lack of depth at fullback and, to a lesser extent, at wide receiver. It’s also possible that the Patriots will cut Fells when Shiancoe is healthy and used the added roster spot elsewhere. They could also do that if Brian Waters does not report.

Defensive Line

On the defensive line, Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette were locks because of their draft status, 1st and 3rd round rookies respectively. Vince Wilfork was a lock for obviously reasons, while the Patriots were very impressed with the progress of Rob Ninkovich converting from linebacker to defensive end. He’ll start opposite Jones. Kyle Love will start opposite Wilfork so he was a lock. Everything else was kind of an unknown here. Brandon Deaderick, an inside/outside guy, looked like he’d probably stay on the roster, as would Trevor Scott, a situational pass rusher that the team likes. Deaderick will serve as the #3 defensive tackle as Scott will be the #3 defensive end ahead of Bequette.

The big question marks were undrafted free agents Marcus Forston and Justin Francis and former 2nd round pick busts Ron Brace (2009) and Jermaine Cunningham (2010). As it turns out, all 4 of them made the final roster as the Patriots will keep 11 defensive lineman. Cunningham and Brace are actually listed as the 4th string defensive end and defensive tackle respectively, so they must have had good Training Camps as both looked like they would not make the roster. Forston and Francis will probably be gameday inactives for most of the season, but the Patriots did not want to cut them and risk someone else picking them up before the Patriots could put them on the practice squad. Bequette, the Patriots’ #5 defensive end, could also be a frequent gameday inactive as a rookie.

Linebackers

While the Patriots kept 11 defensive linemen, they actually only kept 5 linebackers. If Waters does not report or they cut Fells after Shiancoe returns, adding another linebacker would likely be what they do with the open roster spot. Bobby Carpenter was the notable cut here. A former 1st round pick bust of the Dallas Cowboys, Carpenter opened the offseason as the Patriots’ 1st string linebacker. He was pretty quickly beaten out by 1st round rookie Dont’a Hightower, but he was expected to sting around as a reserve. He did not. The Patriots also had to put Dane Fletcher on IR earlier this month with a knee injury. Clearly Niko Koutouvides and Jeff Tarpinian were not good enough because neither of them made the roster despite their lack of depth, though Tarpinian was added to the special squad and could be called up if a roster spot opens up. He saw a little bit of action for them last season when injuries hit.

Hightower, Jerod Mayo, and Brandon Spikes will start for the Patriots at linebacker. Spikes will likely come off the field on passing downs. Hightower also has struggles in coverage, which is why many thought he could move to the defensive line and rush the passer on passing downs, as he did in college. However, without Carpenter and Fletcher, the Patriots don’t have the depth for that kind of move to make sense and it’s not like they need another defensive lineman. Hightower will have to drop into coverage more than maybe he’s comfortable with. Spikes and Mayo also had injury problems last year, so their lack of depth here is concerning. Tracy White and Mike Rivera are the two reserves, listed at outside linebacker and middle linebacker respectively.

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Defensive Backs

Starters Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington were locks at cornerback, as was 2011 2nd round pick Ras-I Dowling, while starter Patrick Chung and 2012 2nd round pick Tavon Wilson were locks at safety. Dowling, who missed most of last season with injury, which he also did his senior year at Virginia in 2010, finally seems to be healthy and will be the nickel back. Tavon Wilson will serve as the backup behind veteran Steve Gregory at safety. Gregory, a free agent acquisition who really struggled last season in San Diego, won that job over incumbent James Ihedigbo.

Ihedigbo didn’t play much better last season and was deemed expendable, even at the veteran’s minimum salary, because of the play of 6th round pick Nate Ebner in the preseason and Training Camp. Ebner won’t see much action at safety this season as the 4th safety, but the special teams and rugby star at Ohio State will contribute heavily on special teams and has upside for the future because of his athleticism. Wilson will begin the season as the 3rd safety and step into the starting lineup if Gregory struggles or Chung gets hurt, both of which have pretty strong probabilities.

At cornerback, Sterling Moore, Alfonzo Dennard, and Marquice Cole all made the playoff roster as the Patriots made the surprising decision to keep 6 cornerbacks. This might have been so they move a cornerback to safety if they need to. They could also cut another cornerback soon to make room for another linebacker, which they need more. Cole would be the most likely to go in that situation. Moore was their postseason hero last year after injuries struck, while Alfonzo Dennard was a 7th round rookie who only fell because of legal troubles.

Specialists

Zoltan Mesko and Sebastian Janikowski will return as the starting punter and place kicker respectively, which is not a surprise. Those are their only two kickers. Danny Aiken will return as the long snapper. Julian Edelman will return punts and be the backup kick returner behind Danny Woodhead. Wes Welker will serve as the 2nd string punt returner and only really come in when they need someone more sure handed for fair catches.

Practice Squad

G Austin Thomas

FB Eric Kettani

WR Sam Kirkland

OT Matt Kopa

TE Alex Silvestro

OLB Jeff Tarpinian

CB Malcolm Williams

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Patriots cut Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth

stevenlourie News, Patriots

With a deep receiving corps, the Patriots knew they had to make cuts at the receiver position ahead of final cuts and that these would probably be proven veterans. The Patriots made their first round of cuts yesterday, cutting veterans Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney. Stallworth was not a surprise as he has caught just 24 passes for 391 yards and 2 touchdowns over the last two seasons after being suspended for the 2009 season after hitting and killing a pedestrian with his car while drunk driving.

However, Gaffney was a bit of a surprise. Gaffney has years of experience in Josh McDaniels’ scheme, playing with the Patriots in from 2006-2008 and the Broncos from 2009-2010. He also has experience with Tom Brady. He was the Redskins’ leading receiver last year, catching 68 passes for 947 yards and 5 touchdowns and was only cut by them for financial reasons. Only heading into his age 32 season, the Patriots took a chance on him, hoping he had something left. Now they’ll have to eat his $250,000 signing bonus. He has roughly a week to catch on somewhere else before final cuts.

These two releases are obviously good news for Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, Matt Slater, and Jeremy Ebert. Those 4 are now competing for 3 or 4 spots on the receiving depth chart behind Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. Branch is heading into his age 33 season and showed signs of slowing last season, but he has impeccable timing with Tom Brady and will serve fine as a #3 receiver. Edelman and Slater will likely make the roster because of their youth (heading into their age 26 and 27 seasons respectively) and versatility and ability to play special teams and defense. Ebert is a 7th round rookie who will make the roster if they keep 6 receivers. If not, he’ll be a candidate for the practice squad.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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New England Patriots extend TE Aaron Hernandez

stevenlourie News, Patriots

I liked the Patriots’ extension of Rob Gronkowski because I feel the value of the tight end position is going to go up in the next 2 years, between now and when Gronkowski would have been a free agent in 2014. I’m not so sure about this deal. Gronkowski’s was 6 years, 54 million. Hernandez’s is 5 years, 40 million. The Patriots are taking an awfully big risk that the tight end position with continue to be a part big of a league and not just a fad because these two deals were the highest per year extensions given to a tight end ever.

If the tight end revolution doesn’t continue, they’ll be stuck paying guys big money at a position that just doesn’t command it. It was fine to take that risk with Gronkowski, because that’s one player and because he’s so good at everything. Including playoffs, the Patriots ran 1362 offensive plays last year. Gronkowski was on the field for 1290 of them. No other tight end does that. Very few players at any position do that. That’s more than any wide receiver on the Patriots, including Wes Welker.

Aaron Hernandez was on the field for 1051 of them. If we look at the regular season, just so we have something to compare him with accurately, Hernandez played 864 offensive snaps, 16th in the league at his position, a number slightly skewed because the Patriots run more plays in general than most teams. Either way, we’re looking at a guy with a usage rate in the high 70% range, which, at his position, is pretty average.

I think they’re taking a big risk committing this kind of money to him, especially with 2 years left on his rookie deal. And the reward I don’t think is as great as with Gronkowski if the tight end revolution continues because Hernandez is not nearly worth what Gronkowski’s worth. He’s essentially just a big wide receiver. Gronkowski is also a big receiver, but he’s also an incredible blocker and as a receiver. He was better than even Hernandez last year as a receiver, in terms of total yards and yards per route run.

Grade: C

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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